Week 9 Picks

Week eight recap:
11-2 straight up
8-5 against the spread
7-5-1 over/unders

Overall:
82-38 straight up (68.3%)
63-52-5 against the spread (54.7%)
7-5-1 over/unders 

I'll certainly take 11-2 straight-up (84%), but I'm not going to brag about it; when you consider that there were 9 favorites of 7+ points and all 9 of them won outright, it wasn't a very difficult week of picks.   In all, favorites went 11-2 straight-up this week, and one of those losses was Pittsburgh, who shouldn't have been favored on the West Coast, where they are 1-6 since 2003.  Oakland and the Giants - the two underdogs who won - were pretty easy picks ATS.    

The story of the week - with apologies to Megatron - was Cincinnati.  Scoring 49 points against a good defense, the Bengals proved they are legit.  Marvin Jones isn't going to be a fluke; he's a legitimate #2 receiver to complement A.J. Green, and now as defenses pay more attention to the deep ball, it allows Gio Bernard to use his speed and make some huge plays on draws and screens.   Cincy is set up nicely for a postseason run, with a 2.5 game lead in the surprisingly awful division.  

In fact, the AFC playoff picture is almost set and we're only halfway through the season.  We know KC, Denver, Indy, Cincy and New England are in.  That leaves one Wildcard spot, and the Chargers are the only remaining team above .500 at 4-3.  The Titans, Ravens, Dolphins, Jets, and maybe even Steelers, Browns, Raiders, Bills, and Texans have a chance at that #6 seed.  But the biggest storyline in the AFC is the two upcoming games between KC and Denver, which will determine who gets homefield throughout and who doesn't get a bye.  Right now, I'm thinking it'll be a Peyton-Luck rematch in the AFC Championship. 

The NFC playoff picture isn't quite as clear, though we do know the Niners, Seahawks and Saints are in.  The Packers are the logical choice to win the North, barring an injury to Rodgers, and nobody in the East is above .500, so it's safe to say no Wildcard will come from that division, especially considering the number of games they still play against one another.  That leaves Detroit, Carolina, Chicago and Arizona fighting for the final spot. In other words, not much changed this past week, as none of the playoff contenders lost.  Carolina is red hot, Detroit and Arizona got huge wins, and Atlanta, Tampa and St. Louis slid closer to the top of the 2014 draft.   The big surprise was Seattle, who looked like absolute crap and only mustered 135 total yards against the Rams, 80 of which came on one play.  Russell Wilson had 10 completions and was sacked 7 times.  

Three things to watch out for in the NFC:  
1) The Giants winning 6 of their last 8 games, and winning the division at 8-8.  
2) The Packers @ Lions on Thanksgiving.  If Detroit pulls the upset, that could shake things up in a big way.  
3) The Panthers - with two games left against the Saints (weeks 14 and 16) they have a snowball's shot at stealing the division. 

Lastly, I should probably say something about Calvin Johnson and his 329 yards and /or Dez Bryant acting like a raging lunatic.   You might remember my prediction before the game that they would combine for 400 receiving yards.  (I was off by one yard).   For all the talk about these two, I speculate that the only difference between these two players is between the ears.  Dez has phenomenal talent; in some ways, he's stronger and faster than Calvin.  But Calvin can run better routes, outthink defenders, anticipate the play before it happens, and inspire - rather than infuriate - his teammates.  It's like comparing Jerry Rice to Terrell Owens, or Tim Duncan to Allen Iverson.  Dez has superstar talent, Hall of Fame talent even, but he's a jackass and a thug and an embarrassment to his teammates and himself.    Calvin is the classiest, humblest, most reluctant superstar I've ever seen.  He's almost embarrassed by his own greatness. And that's why one guy had 14 for 329 and the other guy had 3 for 72.   That's why one guy is beloved by the entire league, even his opponents, and the other guy is bemoaned by his own organization. That's why Calvin broke the single-season yardage record, and just might do it again. 143 yards per game for the next eight games - definitely not impossible.  

Dez Bryant's career is on a trajectory somewhere in between TO and Ochocinco ... while Calvin is carving out a legacy that is one notch below Jerry Rice and one notch above everyone else.   

Here are the week 9 picks.  

Bengals (6-2) @ Dolphins (3-4)
Predicted Line:  CIN by 6.5
Actual Line:  CIN by 2.5 

I was expecting tons of line value following the Bengals' dismantling of the Jets, but apparently people aren't buying into Andy Dalton just yet.  Well, that's not entirely true.  90% of the betting is on the road team. But that's because the line is so curiously low.    The Bengals have won 4 straight, the Fins have lost 4 straight, so this seems like a no-brainer.  I can't think of a good reason why this line isn't 4 points higher.   

If I try really hard to overthink it, I suppose I could say that Miami has a strong defense, a capable secondary, a competent QB, and possibly the best overall player in this game now that Cameron Wake is finally healthy again. 

But on the flip side ... Cincy's D is better than Miami is, they'll be able to stop Miami's non-existent running game with only 4 defenders (especially because one of those guys is Geno Atkins), and they'll create lots of 3rd and longs and then put seven guys in coverage.  A careful look at Tannehill's game-by-game stats shows that he's starting to regress.  Maybe he's trying too hard to compensate for the worthless running game.  Who knows. When he was drafted I considered him John Navarre 2.0, so if he regresses and ultimately doesn't work out as a starting NFL quarterback, I guess I won't be too surprised.  

With the emergence of Marvin Jones last week, Miami's D will be the first to try to figure out how to stop these suddenly explosive Bengals, and if they aren't careful A.J. Green will take advantage.  I'm thinking Gio Bernard has a big game here and officially becomes the leading candidate for ROY.   Bengals 27-9.  
(Under 42) 

*Edit - missed the pick, but I was right about Gio.  Dang.  

Falcons (2-5) @ Panthers (4-3)
Predicted Line:  CAR by 8
Actual Line:  CAR by 7.5 

I'm all about line value in divisional games.  This is an overreactive spread based on what happened last week. Matt Ryan is too good to be an 8-point underdog.  I like the Panthers in a bit of a shoot-out, 30-27.  
(Over 43.5) 

Vikings (1-6) @ Cowboys (4-4)
Predicted Line:  DAL by 8
Actual Line:  DAL by 10.5

It's a small sample size, but in the 25 games that he's been favored by 7+ points, Tony Romo has only covered 32% of the time.  Plus, they say that teams playing a second road game in a row tend to cover a lot of spreads. So that makes me initially lean toward the Vikings, even though I just watched them get demolished by Aaron Rodgers a couple nights ago.  

This might be a good place to mention the NFL trade deadline, which is today (Tuesday the 29th). Lots of rumors, which include everyone from Larry Fitzgerald to Jared Allen to Maurice Jones-Drew and many more.  It's too bad more trades don't occur in the NFL.  For example, why doesn't a team on the fringe of the playoffs (say, the Lions) give up a 3rd round pick to a non-contender (say, Houston) for a position they need (say, CB)?  Wouldn't that make plenty of sense?  Even if it's just for depth, to keep Bill 'The Human Penalty' Bentley off the field on third downs.  It's not like the Lions don't end up cutting all their 3rd round picks anyway.  Might as well get something for them.  I don't see why NFL GMs aren't more aggressive at the trade deadline like they are in baseball.  Can we make Dave Dombrowski the dual-GM of the Lions and Tigers? 

*EDIT - No trades occurred.  None that matter anyway.  

I think I'm going to lay the points here, despite the trends I mentioned above. Minnesota's in disarray.  Their own coach has no idea who he wants to start at quarterback and it's week 9.  They are wasting Adrian Peterson's prime right now and it's a travesty. Cowboys have too much offense for the hopeless Vikings D.  Dallas 31-14. 
(Under 47.5) 

Saints (6-1) @ Jets (4-4)
Predicted Line:  NO by 6
Actual Line:  NO by 6 

Both of these teams have winning records against the spread, with the Saints 5-2 and the Jets 5-3.  Aside from their loss to the Patriots (a game the Saints should have won and would have won 8 out of 10 times),  they've won 5 of their 6 games by 6 points or more.  However, they typically score 30+ points at home (15 out of the last 20 times) but average just 26.4 on the road, including a meager 23 per game this season.  And despite what happened last week, the Jets do have a solid defense.  [Insert Rex Ryan joke and/or complement here]. 

So the question becomes, can the Jets offense score at least 20 or 23 points and thereby cover the spread? 

It should be mentioned, but certainly not elaborated upon, that Rex's brother is the D-coordinator of the Saints.

Geno Smith has been the epitome of inconsistency this year, with an every-other-game trend that is alarming. Check out his QB ratings by game:   80.6 27.6, 89.9, 79.2, 147.7, 48.8, 71.9, 51.9.    
Or his fantasy points per game:   16, 3, 28, 9, 27, 4, 22, 2.  

It's wacky.  It's also worth noting that most of his good games have come at home.  I'm gonna say Jets cover. Saints 24-20.  
(Under 45) 

Titans (3-4) @ Rams (3-5)
Predicted Line:  Pick Em 
Actual Line:  TEN by 3 

I spent a good eight minutes thinking about who is the best overall player in this game.  I have no idea.  Chris Long?  Jake Long?  The Rams kicker?? It might actually be a guy I had never thought about prior to this season - Alterraun Verner, a CB for the Titans who is making a strong case for the Pro Bowl.  He's also the guy who did this. (I hate you Pettigrew).  

I know Jake Locker is the better quarterback, but I'm also pretty sure the Rams have the better defense.  They just shut the Seahawks down entirely. Tennessee's defense started out hot but has regressed, although it's notable that their last three games were KC, SEA and SF.  Not exactly a winnable slate.  Before those games they were 3-1 with an overtime loss.  

But two things are paramount in this game: 
1)  The Rams had a short week to prepare after playing Monday night, while the Titans have had two weeks. 
2)  Jeff Fisher - after coaching the Titans for 16 seasons - is playing against them for the first time.  It'd be more interesting if this game was in Nashville, but there are still plenty of intriguing subplots stemming from the Fisher Bowl.

I can't see either team running away with it, so I'm going to take the points and say Titans 20-19.  
(Under 39.5) 

Chiefs (8-0) @ Bills (3-5)
Predicted Line:  KC by 6.5
Actual Line:  KC by 3.5  

Just wrote a couple big long paragraphs and then this stupid website deleted them and won't let me click 'undo.' 
Whatever - Chiefs 23-17.  
(Under 40.5) 

Chargers (4-3) @ Redskins (2-5)
Predicted Line:  SD by 1
Actual Line:  SD by 1 

My least favorite game of the week to pick. I'm 100% sure I'll get this game wrong.  I guess I have a slightly better feeling about the Chargers - coming off a bye, Rivers can light up Washington's secondary.  I think it'll be fairly high scoring.  Let's say 30-26 San Diego.  
(Over 51) 

Eagles (3-5) @ Raiders (3-4)
Predicted Line:  OAK by 3
Actual Line:  OAK by 2.5

There was a lot of preseason talk about the Raiders going 0-16.  They were barely good enough to play in the SEC, many people said.  So how have they won 3 games, and how did they almost beat the Colts?   And considering that two of their losses were against Denver and KC, and another was with backup QB Matt Flynn stinking it up, you could honestly argue that this is a pretty good team.  When Terrelle Pryor plays, they are 3-3, with losses to teams that are a combined 20-3.  

On the flip side, their wins are all at home, and are against teams that are a combined 6-16, including a win against Jacksonville, which doesn't really count.  

So, the story is, they can beat lousy teams, but they can't beat good teams.  That's a perfect segueway to discuss the Eagles, the most schizophrenic team of 2013.   Philly clearly sucks - their offense has only scored 3 points in the past two games - both against lousy defenses, both home games.   And we know Philly's defense is horrendous - they rank 31st in yards allowed, 31st against the pass, and lead the league in defensive penalties. The Chip Kelly experiment has failed, and Oakland will move to 4-4 and stay in playoff contention.  

But ... LeSean McCoy leads the league in rushing yards, DeSean Jackson is 5th in receiving, and the offense ranks 5th in yards-per-game, not bad for a flurry for injuries at the QB position.  Now they are moving back to Nick Foles, who is clearly their best option at QB, which isn't saying much.  Maybe all Chip Kelly needs is a QB who can run his scheme (Tajh Boyd? Marcus Mariota? Johnny Football?) and this team will be unstoppable.  It's reasonable.  

Even with Foles, this team has been pretty effective.  He's got 6 TDs, 0 picks, and a 2-1 record as a starting QB this year.  Of course, his two wins are against 0-7 Tampa and the 2-6 Giants.  But still.

I'm going to take the mild upset and say Eagles 26-23. 
(Over 45) 

Bucs (0-7) @ Seahawks (7-1)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 17
Actual Line:  SEA by 17

Since blowing out San Francisco in week 2, Seattle really hasn't been dominant enough to be worthy of being a 17 point favorite.  This spread has more to do with Tampa .  With Richard Sherman shutting down Vincent Jackson, and Mike Williams and Doug Martin injured, it's difficult to imagine how Tampa could possibly move the ball or score any points.  Of course, I said the same thing about the Kellen Clemens-led Rams, and they outgained Seattle 339 to 135.  But that was in St. Louis, and we all know how good Seattle plays at home.  

I'm gonna take the Seahawks, who are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Final score 31-10. 
(Over 40.5) 

Ravens (3-4) @ Browns (3-5)
Predicted Line:  BAL by 3
Actual Line:  BAL by 2.5

Not overthinking this one.  Ravens 20-13. 
(Under 41.5) 

Steelers (2-5) @ Patriots (6-2)
Predicted Line:  NE by 5.5
Actual Line:  NE by 7

This one either.  Pats 23-22.  
(Over 44) 

Colts (5-2) @ Texans (2-5)
Predicted Line:  IND by 2.5
Actual Line:  IND by 2

Personally, I don't think that Reggie Wayne injury is all that detrimental.  Between Hilton, Heyward-Bey, Fleener, and whoever else slides up the depth chart, Andrew Luck will figure things out.  Maybe they'll finally start throwing the ball to Trent Richardson.  I like the Colts 34-24. 
(Over 44.5) 

Bears (4-3) @ Packers (5-2)
Predicted Line:  GB by 10.5
Actual Line:  GB by 11 

Taking the big points in another division matchup.  Josh McCown can do a decent job of keeping it close given the weapons he has to work with.  Packers 34-27. 
(Over 49.5) 


Go Lions. 

Week 8 Picks

Week seven recap:
8-7 straight up
8-7 against the spread

Overall:
71-36 straight up (66.3%)
55-47-5 against the spread (53.9%)

It was a bizarre week in the NFL, riddled with injuries and upsets.  Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were beat by QBs in their early twenties, Sam Bradford and Reggie Wayne tore ACLs, Brian Cushing and Lance Briggs were lost for the season, and Jay Cutler suffered his annual injury, decimating the Bears season. Doug Martin was also lost for the year, cementing his fantasy status as one of the worst busts ever.  Unknowns Harry Douglas (149 and a score) and Jarrett Boykin (146 and a score) delivered huge games in the wake of Julio and Cobb's injuries.  And some dude named Jordan Reed has emerged as not only the Redskins starting tight end, but their best offensive playmaker and maybe a top 5 fantasy tight end.

Also, Jim Schwartz showed everyone why he sucks as a coach, and Stafford proved yet again that his head just isn't in the game, and he doesn't have the overpowering will-to-win that NFL quarterbacks need to really be successful.  The Chiefs won again, and now stand as the only unbeaten team.  But they narrowly beat Case Keenum and the Texans;  by the way, Case Keenum is pretty good.   Nick Foles got a concussion, thus relinquishing the job back to Mike Vick, and the Jags lost by double-digits yet again, falling to 0-7. Their remaining schedule does not have any games that appear winnable;  0-16 is a fantastic possibility.   Why haven't they signed Tebow yet??!?  

Keep in mind, the Bucs are also winless, and now Doug Martin-less, so Teddy Bridgewater doesn't quite belong to Jacksonville yet.  The Greg Schiano firing has to be this week, right?   Maybe immediately after their loss on Thursday?

Some slow but intriguing developments are taking place in the Standings, as a few teams who started out crappy now look feisty.  The Panthers (3-3), Redskins and Steelers (2-4), Jets and Chargers (4-3) and Bills (3-4) all have to be considered frisky Wildcard possibilities.   And thanks to the aforementioned injuries to Cutler and Bradford, the road to the NFC Wildcard just opened up for Detroit.  Next week's game against Dallas is huge;  then a bye week to prepare for the Cutler-less Bears.  That's the must-win of the season.

Detroit's remaining seven games have only one killer (Green Bay) and three cupcakes (Tampa, Giants, Vikings), so if the Lions can go 5-2 in those games they'll have a great chance to finish 10-6 or 11-5, depending on if they can beat the Cowboys and/or Bears.  That would be great because it puts Detroit in the playoffs; that would suck because it probably means Jim Schwartz again in 2014.

Last note before we get to the picks - how stinking good is Andrew Luck?  He's now beat the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos.  He's yet to lose two games in a row in his brief NFL career.  And his next obstacle - keeping the offense going without Reggie Wayne - will be his next conquest.  T.Y. Hilton is about to be a fantasy star.  (Of course, it helps when the other three teams in the AFC South are on a 3-game losing streak, a 5-game losing streak, and a 7-game losing streak.)   The Colts have a tighter stranglehold on their division than any other team.   And their punter delivered the play of the season -- a helmet-to-helmet destruction of some tiny kick returner.  The punter is now being "randomly" tested for steroids.  Seriously.  

Oh, also, the Tigers lost in the ALCS and Jim Leyland was fired retired with great dignity. Hopefully the offseason will bring changes, namely some bullpen help and a left fielder.  Oh, and if we can find some sucker to take on Prince's contract (or just release him and eat the money), we could move Cabrera back to 1st, move Castellanos to 3rd, and have enough cash to keep Scherzer at the end of 2014.  Just saying.

So without further ado, here are the week 8 picks.  By the way, I'm trying something new this week - picking the over/under for total points in each game, based on the Bovada.com point totals.  Just for the heck of it.

Panthers (3-3) @ Bucs (0-6) - Thursday
Predicted Line:  CAR by 6.5
Actual Line:  CAR by 7 

If you thought pubescent Mike Glennon was bad, wait til defenses no longer respect the running game and start double-teaming all his receivers.  With Doug Martin off the field, Carolina won't be worried about some sixth-round rookie named Mike James.  Vincent Jackson might be able to make a big play or two - Carolina's secondary isn't great - but it's going to be a crappy day for Tampa's offense.  


On the flip side, Cam Newton is suddenly playing the best football of his career (granted, only a two game sample size).  15 completions on 17 attempts against a pretty good defense. You can't beat that.   And now he's finally running again, he's no longer turning the ball over ...  in other words, this is a good time to bet on Cam Newton.

I know I should be wary of a seven-point road favorite, but this mismatch is tremendous.  Carolina 23-13.
(Under 40)

Cowboys (4-3) @ Lions (4-3)
Predicted Line:  DET by 2.5
Actual Line:  DET by 3.5

With 64% of Vegas betting on the Cowboys, this is the only game on the week 8 slate where the underdog is preferred by the public.  Which probably means this line drops down to DET by 1 or 1.5 by gameday.

And it makes sense.  While Romo and Garrett are the more publicized choke artists, Stafford and Schwartz are by far the inferior duo.  Romo shoots himself in the foot and everybody talks about it for weeks; Stafford shoots himself in the foot and nobody says two words about it, not even the Lions beat writers. How that guy escapes criticism is beyond me.   I think it has something to do with expectations;  after enduring the incompetence of Harrington and Kitna and a host of others, Stafford is a breath of wonderful fresh air to Lions fans.  Even though Stafford [somewhat secretly] sucks with those stupid sidearm passes and his brainless decisions on third down and his complete lack of pocket presence or pocket mobility, we're willing to overlook those deficiencies, because his arm is a cannon and he throws for a shitload of yards.  But to me, it's not about numbers.  Yes, he has thrown for more yards than anybody except Brees and Brady over the last three years.  Great.  But wins and losses are what matter.  The guy was the #1 overall pick, the guy is making $15 million a year, and despite the yardage numbers he puts up, no credible analyst would rank him in the top 10, let alone top 5, quarterbacks in the NFL.  Anybody who says he's better than Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson is a stupid Lions homer.  He's in the Cutler-Rivers-Eli tier, beneath a bunch of guys that he should be better than.    Also, let's not forget that he throws to the best receiver in the world.  We all saw what happened when Calvin was gone for one week.  (shudders)

One of those guys who Stafford should be better than but isn't is Tony Romo.   And speaking of expectations, Romo follows in the footsteps of guys like Troy Aikman and Roger Staubach.  His fans, and the nation as a whole, expect greatness every game, and when he throws for 500 yards and 5 TDs, all people talk about is that one interceptions.  Imagine if that was Stafford.  The story would have been totally different.  Romo is under a weekly microscope;  Stafford is playing on an anonymous beach on a mystery island, and people only care about his box score.  Oh, 357 yards and 3 TDs on 51 attempts?  Nice job; you must be awesome.   No mention of the countless bad throws or bad decisions.  Or that the game was a loss and it was his fault for stupidly throwing the ball incomplete on 2nd and 3rd down with 40 seconds left and the Bengals only having one timeout in a tied game.  That's just basic football 101, but when Stafford makes those blatantly egregious mistakes, nobody even freaking mentions it.   If that were Romo, the talking heads would be dissecting him on an operating table and inspecting his lymph nodes as we speak.

So, all that to say, we are luckily catching the Cowboys at a good time.  DeMarcus Ware, their best overall player, will be out with a quad injury.  DeMarco Murray is questionable, and if he plays he won't be full strength.  And Miles Austin, who really isn't any good anymore anyway, is also out.  Not sure that matters though.

So it's back to the old Cowboys gameplan:  throw like crazy, play awful defense, and hope you can outscore the other offense.   In other words, a perfect fit for Detroit.

If things play out like they should, Dez and Calvin will combine for 400 yards, the starting running backs will combine for about 50 rushing yards, and Stafford and Romo will each air it out 55 times, while secondaries run around aimlessly, getting burned and getting called for stupid penalties, and it'll ultimately come down to which error-prone, non-clutch, overrated quarterback has the ball last.

I like the Lions, because of the X-factor: Ndamukong Suh.  He's more disruptive than any other defensive player in this game, especially with Ware absent, and he might just wreak enough havoc to give Detroit an edge.  I will take the points but the Lions straight up, 37-34, maybe in OT.
(Over 51)

49ers (5-2) @ Jaguars (0-7) in London
Predicted Line:  SF by 16.5
Actual Line:  SF by 16.5 

Not only are the Jaguars 0-7, but they're an incredible 1-6 ATS this year, despite being double-digit underdogs every week.  Their only cover was 26.5 points in Denver, a game they lost by "only" 16 points.

So I'm taking San Fran, because Jim Harbaugh won't be afraid to put them in a hole and step on their throats.  And the Colin Kaepernick mini-slump appears to be over.  How about Niners 27-7.
(Under 41)

Giants (1-6) @ Eagles (3-4)
Predicted Line:  PHI by 5.5
Actual Line:  PHI by 6  

The line is set at Eagles by 6, because it now looks almost certain that Vick will be able to start. Foles' concussion was timely because Chip Kelly avoids a quarterback controversy ... for now.  There's still a glimmer of hope that third stringer Draco Malfoy [Matt Barkley] gets the start if Vick can't go.

The Giants are feeling confident after actually being competitive in their last two games and finally ending Eli's interception streak (six straight games).  Leave it to Coughlin and Eli to finish the year on a 8-2 spree after being 0-6 and save their jobs and reputations.   Not that I think they'll do that, but it wouldn't surprise me.

By the way, funny fact for the day:  Eli has attempted 4,725 passes in the NFL, played in 155 games over 10 seasons ... and is only TWO years older than Brandon Weeden, who was drafted as a rookie last year.

I'm taking the Giants +6 because Vick with a hamstring injury doesn't inspire much confidence.  It could easily go the other way, because the Giants have no running game and the Eagles have tons of running game, but I think Eli can keep the score close with a second-half barrage of points against the pitiful Eagles D.  Philly wins 22-20.
(Under 52)

Browns (3-4) @ Chiefs (7-0)
Predicted Line:  KC by 8.5
Actual Line:  KC by 7 

The Browns are an easy team to explain:  3-0 under Brian Hoyer, 0-4 under Brandon Weeden.

The defense has been solid all year, though not unbeatable.  But the offense has been erratic:  28.3 points per game with Hoyer and 11.5 points per game with Weeden.  I mean, that's just ghastly.

But wait!  As I'm checking these numbers, I stumble upon the announcement - just posted 6 minutes ago - Jason Campbell will start this Sunday in KC!  Weeden is benched, meaning his career as a starting QB is probably over.

Campbell played in only three games last season, for the Bears, after Cutler was hurt.  All three were losses, but you still have to consider him an upgrade over Weeden.  At least he can move around a little bit, and he does have a stronger arm, or at least he did a few years ago.  I'm sure KC's defense isn't in a panic, but they've got to be disappointed that they don't get to play Weeden.

I'm pretty sure this game falls under the category of "Don't Overthink It."   Chiefs get an early lead and then Jamaal Charles takes over.  KC 27-10.
(Under 40)

Bills (3-4) @ Saints (5-1)
Predicted Line:  NO by 13.5
Actual Line:  NO by 11.5

Two major factors in this game:  one is the health of Jimmy Graham.  If he doesn't play, I'm not sure the Saints can score enough points to cover the spread.  The other is the fact that New Orleans is coming off a bye.  Two weeks to prepare for Thad Lewis, and two weeks to gameplan for an opportunistic but not elite defense.  If Graham plays, it's a no-doubter.  But I'm thinking his foot injury keeps him out another week.  Still, I think the Saints can get a sizable lead and then force Thad Lewis into some mistakes.  I'm doubtful that he can keep the fourth-quarter magic going for a third straight game.  Saints 27-13.
(Under 49)

Dolphins (3-3) @ Patriots (5-2)
Predicted Line:  NE by 6.5
Actual Line:  NE by 7

In his last three games, Tom Brady has 1 TD, 3 INTs, and a 51% completion percentage. Those numbers are Gabbert-esque.

On the season, he's 29th in completion percentage, 30th in YPA, 26th in QB rating, and, oh by the way, 3rd in total attempts, behind just Stafford and Peyton.

Are we sure he's still Tom Brady?  A few games is understandable, but seven games is no longer a small sample size.  Why are the Pats still getting lines like this?  They could easily be 2-5.  Wilfork and Mayo are both lost for the season.  I don't get it.

All I know is, I was ready to drop Brady in my fantasy league, and then I got an offer for him and accepted it without a second's thought.  It could have been Priest Holmes and I would have accepted.  (It was Andre Johnson, who I don't love, but whatever.)  Then I had the choice between Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Geno Smith, and Thad Lewis from free agency.  Frankly, I see all of them as an upgrade over Brady.   I'll be playing the matchup at QB for the rest of the season and to me, that's a whole lot better than Brady throwing for 170 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.  I'm officially done with Tom Brady.  If he wants to prove me wrong, go ahead, I don't even care.

Dolphins 23-19.    (Under 45)

Jets (4-3) @ Bengals (5-2)
Predicted Line:  CIN by 6.5
Actual Line:  CIN by 7

I can't figure either of these teams out.  Both have wins against New England; the Bengals also beat Green Bay (although that was a fluke), and the Jets beat the pre-injured Falcons.

But both have terrible losses on their docket;  Cincy scored only 6 points against Cleveland, while the Jets got annihilated by Tennessee.

Both these teams fall in the stupid, annoying category of "They could beat anybody, they could lose to anbody."   Completely inconsistent.  Though I will admit, both these teams are much better than I gave them credit for back in August.   Taking the points is the only pick that makes any sense.  Bengals 23-19.
(Over 41.5)

Steelers (2-4) @ Raiders (2-4)
Predicted Line:  PIT by 3
Actual Line:  PIT by 3 

Nice two game winning streak, but now it's time to remind people how incredibly bad this Steelers team is as they get demolished by Terrelle Pryor.  Raiders 31-14.   (Over 40)

Redskins (2-4) @ Broncos (6-1)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 14.5
Actual Line:  DEN by 14 

All that talk about how Peyton was returning to Indy after being there for 13 seasons.  How about this game: Mike Shanahan returns to Denver after coaching there for 13 seasons.  A pretty big deal, right?

Another good storyline:  RG3, always in Luck's shadow, now has to try to replicate the success that Luck had against Denver.  

I wasn't impressed by Denver's defense at all last week; Champ Bailey looked bad and is now hurt.  And Washington finally has a threat in the passing game in Jordan Reed.

But the Redskins defense is too bad to even consider them slowing down the Peyton Manning Machine. I'm gonna say 35-13 Denver.   (Under 58)

Falcons (2-4) @ Cardinals (3-4)
Predicted Line:  ARZ by 2.5
Actual Line:  ARZ by 2.5 

Last week Matt Ryan proved that he can still be a great quarterback without great receivers.  He made freaking Harry Douglas unstoppable.  This week, though, with Roddy White still out, Douglas gets matched up against Patrick Peterson and won't half half the success he had against.  So will Matt Ryan be able to use Jacquizz Rodgers and Tony Gonzalez to be effective, or will the offense fall flat against the underrated Cardinals D?  And how is the Cardinals D still underrated?     I want to think the return of Steven Jackson will help, but I have my doubts about that.

Arizona's offense is pretty anemic without a healthy Fitzgerald, as we've seen lately. Actually, they've been pretty anemic all season.  The most points they've scored all year was 25, and that was with plenty of help from the retarded Lions defense.   Weirdly, they've scored between 20 and 25 points in 5 of their 7 games, so we have a pretty clear idea of what their offense can do.  If they would dump Mendenhall and focus entirely on the superior Andre Ellington, that might take some pressure off Carson Palmer.  Maybe.  But it's a very limited offense with a very unreliable offensive line, and Fitzgerald has a mixture of injuries and attitude problems and just isn't dominant anymore.

So, that said, I see a whole lot of punting going on in this game, and quite a few field goals.   Atlanta has the superior quarterback, but the inferior defense.  I'll take the Cards by 4, 20-16.
(Under 45)

Packers (4-2) @ Vikings (1-5)
Predicted Line:  GB by 8.5
Actual Line: GB by 10 

Going against the grain (and 83% of the public) and taking the Vikings +10.  It makes plenty of sense to side with Aaron Rodgers, who wins 63% of the time ATS since 2009.  He proved last week that he can dominate without Cobb or James Jones.  I'm sure the Pack will be able to score 24 to 27 points at least.  Plus, Rodgers may be extra motivated playing against professional ass-clown Greg Jennings after all that nonsensical preseason trash talk.

But something tells me Adrian Peterson isn't a smart guy to bet double-digits against.  Just because he's had a few down weeks doesn't mean he's not still Adrian Peterson.  And I like that the Vikings are smartly moving back to Ponder;  although it's silly to fake a concussion for Freeman instead of just admitting that he stinks, it was still a smart move.  Ponder has a lousy arm for the NFL, but he can manage the game without making many mistakes, and he is more mobile that Freeman.  Also, the Packers don't have Clay Matthews.   So, I'm going to say Packers in a surprisingly close game, 27-23.
(Over 47.5)

Seahawks (6-1) @ Rams (3-4)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 11
Actual Line:  SEA by 11

That's four lines guessed exactly, and 13-for-13 lines guessed within 2 points.  Much better than last week, when I was off by 2 or more points 9 times, and picked the wrong favorite 3 times.   That explains why last week there were so many close games (6 games decided by 4 points or less).  This week should feature at least 6 or 7 blowouts.

And this will be one of them, with Kellen Clemens making his first start since 2011.  Clemens started three games for the Rams in 2011, all losses by at least 7 points.  And he was something of a backdoor expert. Losing 34-13 to the 49ers in the 4th quarter, he chucked two garbage TDs to make the score look respectable.  Losing 20-6 to Cincy with 1 minute left, he got another garbage TD.  And in his other start, Pittsburgh shut him out, with the Rams losing 27-0 and Clemens throwing for just 91 yards.

His other starts all came in 2007 with the Jets;  he was 3-5 in 8 starts with twice as many INTs and TDs, and a 60.9 QB rating.

So in other words, it makes sense why the Rams reached out to Brett Favre this week.  They are not feeling confident in Kellen Clemens.  But (thank God), Favre turned them down, and they're stuck with Clemens for the rest of the year, unless they do something unconventional like call up Tebow or Pat White or Troy Smith, or turn to newly signed 3rd stringer Brady Quinn.  Clemens will probably be just good enough to keep the starting job, and simultaneously prevent the Rams from drafting in the top 8 spots next year, which probably means more Sam Bradford in St. Louis.  A lot will depend on whether sophomores Hundley (UCLA) and Mariota (Oregon) declare for the draft.  If they do, there are at least FIVE quarterbacks going in the first round (assuming Manziel, Boyd and Bridgewater).   That means the Jags, Browns, Bucs, Eagles, Vikings, Rams, and maybe Cardinals (seven teams) are fighting over those five quarterbacks.  So the moral of the story is, you don't want to win too many games if you're a Rams or Cards or Eagles fan.

Also, how much smarter is that Trent Richardson trade looking for Cleveland?   Richardson has 228 yards on 75 carries (a repulsive 3.0 YPC) for the Colts, and a shockingly bad 2 receptions in 5 games.  Or in layman's terms, he has about 6 fantasy points per game.  While the Browns have an extra 1st round pick (which, granted, will be in the 20s) to package with their own 1st round pick and move up and make sure they get one of the elite QBs.  It was a calculated risk that looked idiotic in the short-term, but in the long-term means the Browns will enter 2014 with a new face of the franchise.

So all that to say, I'm taking the Seahawks in the blowout of the season, 42-0.
(Under 42.5)



Go Lions!

Week 7 Picks

Week six recap:
10-5 straight up
6-8-1 against the spread

Overall:
63-29 straight up (68.4%)
47-40-5 against the spread (54.0%)

Seahawks (5-1) @ Cardinals (3-3)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 5
Actual Line:  SEA by 7 

Considering how good Arizona's defense has been playing, this spread is way too high and represents major value.  People love betting on Seattle (89% of Vegas this week), which pushes their lines higher and higher. When they're on the road, they're generally overvalued.  I recognize how good they are, but I also recognize certain holes on the team, such as inexperience at QB or lack of talent at WR.  I'll be taking the Cardinals +7, though I expect Seattle to pull off the win.  

Arizona's specialty is stuffing the run, and given Seattle's lack of weapons in the passing game, it's tough to see Seattle racking up many points, unless Marshawn Lynch has a completely freakish game, which is possible. Throw in the Patrick Peterson factor and this probably is a lousy game for Russell Wilson.  

On the other side of the ball you have a marquee matchup with Fitzgerald and Richard Sherman.  Sherman should own that matchup.   The Cardinals struggle to run the ball and to protect the passer, so I doubt they'll score a whole lot of points either.   Thursday games tend to favor the defenses anyway.  Let's say Seahawks 20-17.  

Patriots (5-1) @ Jets (3-3)
Predicted Line:  NE by 7
Actual Line:  NE by 3.5

Even though the Pats ended up winning by 3 last week - the exact number they were favored by - I still think I made the right call by picking the Saints straight up.  New England just doesn't look right and their 5-1 record is not a true indicator of how good they actually are.  If they were playing anyone but the Jets, I would pick against them.  However, I would just feel stupid picking Geno Smith over Tom Brady in any situation.  Plus, there's a small chance that Gronk finally returns this week.  Pats 27-23. 

Chargers (3-3) @ Jags (0-6)
Predicted Line:  SD by 11
Actual Line:  SD by 9 

The death march to 0-16 continues.  Meanwhile, Keenan Allen is suddenly Phillip Rivers' favorite target, and has emerged as a legit top 15 fantasy receiver, maybe top 5 next year.  If you haven't watched highlights of him yet, you're missing out.   But Jacksonville can cover this spread via the backdoor.  Justin Blackmon looks fantastic. I'll say Bolts 30-23. And if I'm right, congrats to the Jags on their first single-digit loss.  

Bengals (4-2) @ Lions (4-2)
Predicted Line:  DET by 3
Actual Line:  DET by 3 

These two teams are extremely similar.  They can both beat anybody, they can both lose to anybody.  (Well, excluding Denver and Jacksonville).  They both have productive but non-elite QBs, they have the two best WRs in the league (though Calvin is not himself right now), they both struggle in the secondary, and they both have unblockable monsters on the D-line, Suh for the Lions and Geno Atkins for Cincy.   Even Gio Bernard seems like a young version of Reggie Bush.  

And the eeriest similarity of all is the tight ends.   Jermaine Gersham - 6'5", 260, the 21st pick in 2010, slow as hell, struggle with drops, played at Oklahoma, drafted about 4 rounds too high, taken ahead of about 25 studs, including fellow TEs Gronk, Graham, Hernandez, and Pitta ... and his perfect doppelganger, our own wretched Brandon Pettigrew - 6'5", 265, 20th pick in 2009, slow as hell, struggles with drops and fumbles, played at Oklahoma State, drafted about 5 rounds too high, taken ahead of about 20 studs, including Percy Harvin, Clay Matthews, Vontae Davis, and many others.

And their career numbers are almost identical.  Pettigrew averages 52 catches for 519 yards and 2.8 TDs over his career, while Gresham averages 49 for 503 and 3.7.  Both guys are miserable failures considering where they were drafted, but have retained their jobs due to size and blocking ability.  And both are slowing being replaced by rookies (Joe Fauria and Tyler Eifert).  Anyway, enough about that ... 

The worry I have in this game is Calvin's health.  We saw last week that he was basically a possession receiver in a huge body.  He didn't have much burst, and he uncharacteristically dropped two easy balls, one of which was a TD.  Granted he was going against Joe Haden, but he still didn't look right.  

Cincy still has to worry about him, but not to the extent that teams normally do.  And that means more guys to focus on Reggie Bush, which is bad for Detroit.  We've seen that Durham and Broyles are not capable of doing crap.  Stafford and Durham might be best bros off the field, but the guy isn't going to win games for us against real teams.  Durham is Mike Furrey at best.  If we don't start investing some serious attention into Ryan Broyles, that's going to be yet another worthless 2nd round pick on Mayhew's watch.  

On the other side of the ball, A.J. Green will kill us, but I think we can slow down the rest of the offense.  Andy Dalton doesn't scare me.  He's a good game manager but not a cold-blooded killer.  Gio Bernard has speed and will probably break a big play or two, but B.J.G.E. isn't going to do anything.  Our defense is better than I originally thought.  Ansah, Quin, and even Delmas have played better than I expected.  

I see this as a back-and-forth battle, with the Lions winning 24-23 on a last second field goal. 

Bills (2-4) @ Dolphins (3-2)
Predicted Line:  MIA by 4.5
Actual Line:  MIA by 9 

The Bills were 9-point underdogs last week and nearly won, losing by 3 in OT.  This week is different because they're on the road, but again, 9 points seems to high.  What has Ryan Tannehill done to deserve being a 9-point favorite?   People are still hyping Miami because of the 3-0 start, but what about losing 2 in a row and having perhaps the most anemic running attach in the NFL?   Mike Wallace has been just okay, the other receivers are nothing special, and the secondary is ranked in the bottom half of the league in every category.  

I'm not saying Miami sucks, nor am I saying I want to pick an injured Thad Lewis on the road (or a healthy Jeff Tuel for that matter), I'm just saying, average QBs like Ryan Tannehill shouldn't be favored by this many points unless they have a great RB who can control the clock.  Miami doesn't.  Buffalo keeps it close enough to cover. 20-13 Fins.  

Bears (4-2) @ Redskins (1-4)
Predicted Line:  CHI by 1.5
Actual Line:  Pick Em 

It's tough to imagine the Redskins falling to 1-5, but it's also tough to see their crappy defense stopping the Bears.  Bears 30-24.  

Cowboys (3-3) @ Eagles (3-3)
Predicted Line:  DAL by 1.5
Actual Line:  PHI by 3 

It's possible that this line is inflated by the injury to DeMarcus Ware (doubtful to play), but I still don't think Philly should be considered an equal to Dallas.  Given the Foles/Vick variable, the godawful secondary, and the inconsistency of the Chip Kelly experiment, I'm inclined to take the steadier Cowboys.  Big game for the backup running back, Joseph Randle, who I unsuccessfully tried to pick up in all my fantasy leagues.  Dallas 31-27. 

Rams (3-3) @ Panthers (2-3)
Predicted Line:  CAR by 6
Actual Line:  CAR by 6

Weird stat of the day:  both of these teams are coming off 25 point wins.  Weirder still, both were underdogs in those games.  

Sam Bradford (#1 pick in 2010) and Cam Newton (#1 pick in 2011) are two of the most dissected quarterbacks in the NFL, both ranging from franchise savior to franchise scapegoat on a weekly basis.  If we look at the bottom line, both are just slightly below average.  

Statistically, they're close, but Newton is better.  Bradford has a 79 career QB rating, Cam has an 86.  Bradford has a 58:37 TD to INT ratio; Cam's is 49:34.  Cam has the slight edge in YPA and completion percentage, and of course there's the difference in rushing:  one guys has 246 rushing yards and 2 TDs, the other has 1600 rushing yards and 24 scores.  Bet you can't guess which guy is which. 

The most important number, though, is winning percentage.  Bradford wins 38% of his starts.  Cam wins 41% of his starts.  Neither is a good enough number to keep the QB job long-term.  

Of course, there are the myriad of excuses.  Injuries (Bradford).  Crappy teammates (both).  Defensive-minded head coach (both).  Crappy head coach (Cam).   Bad offensive lines (both).  Tough divisions (both).   

Perhaps not all these excuses are legit - if they were truly QBs worthy of the #1 pick they would overcome the excuses - but the excuses are still out there, justifying the mammoth contracts ($50 million guaranteed for Sam, $22 million guaranteed for Cam.)   And there's the biggest difference between these two guys.  $28 million, thanks to the timing of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.    

So, I'm not sure who will win the game, but I am sure that this is the only game in NFL history that features two quarterbacks who were taken #1 overall in consecutive years and have rhyming first names and won Rookie of the Year but followed that up with a sophomore slump, and are currently coming off 25-point victories as underdogs. 

Guess I'll take the points.  Panthers 17-14.  

Bucs (0-5) @ Falcons (1-4)
Predicted Line:  ATL by 4
Actual Line:  ATL by 9 

This is the worst I've ever done at picking lines ....  did Vegas not hear about the Julio Jones injury? 

Everybody knows about the Jaguars and Giants, but the Bucs, who just made Nick Foles look unstoppable, are also winless and in contention for Teddy Bridgewater.  

They haven't lost in pathetic fashion like the Jags (average loss 21 points) or Giants (average loss 17 points); instead, they've lost all 5 games by a combined 37 points, and three of those by three points or less.  In fact, a diehard Bucs fan will tell you that they could easily be 3-2 and in contention for a wildcard.  Instead, they're looking at 2014 knowing they'll have a new coach, new QB, and maybe even a new GM.  

The Teddy Bridgewater draft is super intriguing --- where will Clowney go? does Mariota or Manziel go in the top 10? what about Tajh Boyd or Brett Hundley?  could there be 5 franchise quarterbacks in this draft AND the best DE since Reggie White?  ---  but it's too early in the season to think about it.  Everything changes in November anyway.  

So let's talk about Mike Glennon, the 3rd round rookie from NC State.  He's 23 years old, but if you look at a picture of him, he looks like a tall 12 year old. He wasn't bad against the Eagles (well, maybe on this play), but he sure didn't look like the future of a franchise.  And with Greg Schiano's job hanging by a thread, what's to stop the Bucs from quitting and mailing in the rest of the season?  

But then there's Atlanta, who lost their best defensive player for the year, then their best offensive player for the year the following week.  This after losing a handful of studs in the offseason.  They look destined for 4-12.  How the heck are they 9 point favorites?  

I'm going to take a crazy flier here and say Mike Glennon gets his first win, and officially dumps Atlanta's season into the sewer.  Bucs 23-20.  

49ers (4-2) @ Titans (3-3)
Predicted Line:  SF by 6
Actual Line: SF by 4.5 

San Fran's defense hasn't been quite as dominant this year as we expected.  They're uncharacteristically giving up a lot of yards on the ground.  And on top of that, Colin Kaepernick hasn't lived up to his lofty expectations at all, with a paltry 84 QB rating and only 28 rushing yards per game.  So, you might think I'm leaning toward the homedog and saying San Fran wins by 3 or 4.  That would be logical.  But that would involve taking the side of Ryan Fitzpatrick.  The Harvard grad has looked awful this year; granted, he's played two of the league's best defenses in Seattle and KC.  But San Fran is no picnic.  He should struggle again, and Chris "Shell of his Former Self" Johnson will not be able to help him out.  I like the Niners 27-20.  

Texans (2-4) @ Chiefs (6-0)
Predicted Line:  KC by 9.5
Actual Line:  KC by 7

Matt Schaub is questionable with an injured leg (AKA ego), which means T.J. Yates probably gets the start against the league's #1 ranked defense.  Sounds like a sure recipe for a blowout, right? 

I'm not so sure.  KC isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard, and Houston has a solid defense (if they decide to put some effort into this game, that is).  I'll say Chiefs win 23-17.  

Browns (3-3) @ Packers (3-2)
Predicted Line:  GB by 8.5
Actual Line:  GB by 10 

Cobb is out, Rodgers isn't playing all that well, and Cleveland's defense is solid. 

On the flip side ... Brandon Weeden.

I'll take the Pack, 27-16. 

Ravens (3-3) @ Steelers (1-4)
Predicted Line:  BAL by 2.5
Actual Line:  PIT by 1 

I honestly think Pittsburgh is a bottom-five team in the league, and Baltimore is a top-ten team.  So this spread is stupid.  That's all I got.  Ravens 23-17.  

Broncos (6-0) @ Colts (4-2)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 6
Actual Line:  DEN by 7

Gee, I wonder if Peyton Manning will be even more of a psycho-killer-robot against his former team and the owner who is stupidly pissing him off on Twitter?  As much as I love Andrew Luck, I've gotta say Broncos ... 42-27.   Six TDs for Manning.   

By the way, this is Von Miller's first game of the season.  6-0 without your best defensive player is a pretty impressive start.  

Vikings (1-4) @ Giants (0-6)
Predicted Line:  MIN by 1
Actual Line:  NYG by 3.5

I changed my Vikings-Panthers pick at the last moment because I thought AP would be extra motivated and run amuck and win the game single-handedly.  Dang, I was way wrong.  I think my ATS record in last-minute-switches is something like 0-50 over the last few years so I'll stop doing that. 

This game commences the Josh Freeman Era in Minnesota, which is likely to last less than one season.  If Minnesota loses enough games they'll likely find a new QB in the 2014 draft.  

I don't know ... the Giants have been garbage, but I actually like them to win big.  Minnesota's secondary can't stop anybody.  Let's go with New York, 31-16.

Go Lions.