Week 13 Picks

Week 12 recap:

7-5-1 straight up
6-7 against the spread
4-9 over/unders

Total

117-57-1 straight up (67.2%)
90-77-8 against the spread (53.8%)
34-30-4 over/unders (53.1%)

Not a good week in the slightest, as I made lousy picks, lost two meaningful fantasy games, and the Lions squandered a fourth quarter lead and lost at home to a team that was 0-8 a few weeks ago.   Let's blame it on being in India and move on to week 13.  

Thanksgiving Games: 

Packers (5-5-1) @ Lions (6-5)
Predicted Line:  DET by 4.5
Actual Line:  DET by 6 

It's not announced yet whether Scott Tolzien or Matt Flynn will be the starter for Green Bay, but Aaron Rodgers was officially ruled out.  I think I speak for the entire state of Michigan when I say I'd like to see some significant revenge against Matt Flynn, however:  Tolzien being named the starter would be better for Detroit.  That guy is a joke;  Flynn was competent against Minnesota.  

But the Lions proved against Tampa that they can't be relied on as more than a 2 point favorite against anybody. So let's take the points and hope the Lions don't screw this up.   Detroit 34-31. 
(Over 49.5) 

Raiders (4-7) @ Cowboys (6-5)
Predicted Line:  DAL by 8
Actual Line:  DAL by 10 

Like Detroit, the Cowboys can't be trusted to cover a large spread.  This is a defense that allowed 40 first downs a month ago.  But they will get the win.   Cowboys 26-20. 
(Under 46.5) 

Steelers (5-6) @ Ravens (5-6)
Predicted Line:  BAL by 2.5
Actual Line:  BAL by 3 

Both these teams have overcome terrible starts to now be in Wildcard contention.  The winner of this game will be the frontrunner for the second Wildcard spot and have a chance to take down Cincinnati.  I always like the points in this rivalry, and Pittsburgh is playing better right now.  So I'm taking the upset - Steelers 24-18. 
(Over 40)

Sunday Games: 

Titans (5-6) @ Colts (7-4)
Predicted Line:  IND by 4
Actual Line:  IND by 4

As the "What's Wrong with Andrew Luck?" headlines emerge, it's a good time to take advantage of this small spread.  Indy won by 3 in Nashville two weeks ago;  they should do better at home.  I'll say Colts 31-17. 
(Over 44.5) 

Jaguars (2-9) @ Browns (4-7)
Predicted Line:  CLE by 5
Actual Line:  CLE by 7 

Well, the 2014 Draft has overgone a complete makeover from where it was 2 weeks ago.  The Jags and Bucs have both climbed out of 0-8 holes and now aren't even in last place in their divisions; Atlanta and Houston (both 2-9) currently stand to pick 1st and 2nd in April.  Then there's the 2-8-1 Vikings, the 3-8 Redskins, and a host of 4-7 teams, including the Browns and Raiders.  

Of those teams, only one definitely has their franchise quarterback.  That's Atlanta.  Houston and Tampa have seen enough from Keenum and Glennon that they'll at least be given a chance to compete for the job next year;  Minnesota and Jacksonville are almost certain to take quarterbacks in the 1st round.  Then there's Cleveland, who announced via the Trent Richardson trade that they won't be losing out on a franchise QB like they did in the RG3 sweepstakes;  they'll be packaging their 1st round pick (in the 6-10 range) with the Colts 1st round pick (in the 20s) and likely a 2015 1st rounder to move up and take a QB in the top 3.  

Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville) is still the consensus #1 pick, with Johnny Football, Tahj Boyd (Clemson), Brett Hundley (UCLA), and David Carr's Brother (Fresno St) all possible 1st rounders.   The Jags, Vikings and Browns are the most likely teams to come away with one of these franchise QBs, but anything could happen in the top 5.  A team like Atlanta that doesn't need a QB might come away with freak of nature Jadaveon Clowney with the 3rd or 4th pick, which would be a steal.  

Anyway, there's still a lot of time before April to see how the standings shake out.  In this game, I like the points. Browns 24-20. 
(Over 40.5)

Bucs (3-8) @ Panthers (8-3)
Predicted Line:  CAR by 6.5
Actual Line:  CAR by 9 

That's seven wins in a row for Carolina, since they were 1-3 and I said "Watch out, their schedule is about to get easy."  They'll keep rolling here.  Panthers 30-16.
(Over 41.5) 

Bears (6-5) @ Vikings (2-8-1)
Predicted Line:  CHI by 2.5
Actual Line:  MIN by 1 

I'm not thinking the Vikings actually have any chance of winning. The Lions don't have that much luck. Bears 19-13. 
(Under 49) 

Cardinals (7-4) @ Eagles (6-5)
Predicted Line:  PHI by 3
Actual Line:  PHI by 3.5

It's shocking how much I love Nick Foles.  Eagles 27-20. 
(Under 49)

Dolphins (5-6) @ Jets (5-6)
Predicted Line:  NYJ by 2
Actual Line:  NYJ by 1

Yawn.   Jets by 3 I guess.  
(Over 38.5) 

Patriots (8-3) @ Texans (2-9)
Predicted Line:  NE by 6.5
Actual Line:  NE by 9 

So last week I started three Texans (Keenum, Tate, Andre) against the Jags, thinking they'd easily combine for 30 points, maybe 50.  Instead they combined for 9 damn points.  Ben Tate is dead to me.   So are the Texans, who are flagrantly tanking at this point.   Patriots 63-10. 
(Over whatever the number is) 

Falcons (2-9) @ Bills (4-7) in Toronto
Predicted Line:  BUF by 3.5
Actual Line:  BUF by 3.5

Speaking of tanking ....  we're about two quarters away from the inevitable Fake Matt Ryan Injury.  Bills by 6.
(Under 46) 

Rams (5-6) @ 49ers (7-4)
Predicted Line:  SF by 7
Actual Line:  SF by 8.5

Too many points for such a good Rams defense.  Niners 20-17. 
(Under 42) 

By the way, the Lions' chances of winning a Wildcard are looking extremely slim right now, as the Niners, Panthers and Cardinals are three of the hottest teams in the NFC.   Fortunately, thanks to the sweeping of the Bears, we can go 3-2 in the next five games and still likely win the division, as long as one of those wins is Thanksgiving.    Unless Rodgers returns next week and reels off 4 straight wins, which is absolutely possible.  

Broncos (9-2) @ Chiefs (9-2)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 2.5
Actual Line:  DEN by 5 

Something tells me KC just might get the win.  So I will hesitantly take the points - Denver 27-24. 
(Over 49) 

Bengals (7-4) @ Chargers (5-6)
Predicted Line:  SD by 4.5
Actual Line:  SD by 1.5

I was going to take the points, but since we aren't getting any points, I'll take the home team.  Bolts 23-20. 
(Under 48.5)

Giants (4-7) @ Redskins (3-8)
Predicted Line:  WAS by 2
Actual Line:  NYG by 1 

So much for the Giants making the playoffs.   I'm gonna take the home team again I suppose.  Skins 26-23. 
(Over 45.5) 

Saints (9-2) @ Seahawks (10-1)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 3
Actual Line:  SEA by 6 

Rematch of the infamous 2011 playoff game where 7-9 Seattle beat 11-5 New Orleans at HOME in one of the dumbest postseason games of all time.  I definitely want the 6 points with Drew Brees.  In fact, Saints 33-27. 
(Over 47) 


Go Lions!!  

Week 12 picks

Week 11 results

8-5-2 against the spread
11-4 straight up
8-6-1 over/unders

Total

110-52 straight up (67.9%)
84-70-8 against the spread (54.5%)
30-21-4 over/unders (58.8%)

 Here are the week 12 picks, live from India!

Saints @ Falcons
Line: NO by 7.5
Pick: saints 34-13. Brees in a blowout, with the falcons tanking.
(under 53) 

Bucs @ lions
Line: DET by 9
Pick: lions 33-27. Backdoor cover.
 (over 48.5)

 Jags @ texans
Line: HOU by 10
Pick: texans 38-23. Case Keenum is unstoppable!
 (over 43)

Vikings @ packers
Line: GB by 3.5
Pick: vikes 16-13. Just say no to scott tolzien.
 (under 44.5)

Chargers @ chiefs
Line: KC by 5
Pick: bolts 31-23. Afc west curveball.
(over 41.5)

Panthers @ dolphins
Line: CAR by 3.5
Pick: Carolina 27-26. Six in a row.
(over 41)

Steelers @ browns
Line: CLE by 2
Pick: Pitt 26-16. Who cares.
(over 41)

Bears @ rams
Line: STL by 1
Pick: rams 18-16. Too much Rams defense.
(under 45.5)

Jets @ ravens
Line:  BAL by 4
Pick:  ravens 23-20.  rex ryan + ed reed = extra obnoxious.
(over 40)

Titans @ raiders
Line:  OAK by 1.5
Pick:  Titans 19-16.  In a game between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt McGloin, nobody wins.
(under 41.5)

colts @ cardinals
line:  ARZ by 2.5
pick:  colts 31-29.  another luck comeback.
(over 45)

cowboys @ giants
line:  NYG by 2.5
pick:  giants 27-24.  the embarrassing climb from 0-6 to the playoffs continues.
(over 47)

broncos @ patriots
line:  DEN by 2.5
pick:  broncos 47-27.   peyton>brady
(over 56)

GO LIONS

Week 11 Picks

Week ten recap:
9-5 straight up
8-5-1 against the spread
7-5-2 over/unders

Overall:
99-48 straight up (67.3%)
76-65-6 against the spread (53.9%)
22-15-3 over/unders (59%) 

It was a good week to pick underdogs.  My picks were 10 to 3 in favor of underdogs, and underdogs indeed went 8-4-1 against the spread, including 7 straight up victories.  None was more shocking than the Rams annihilation of the playoff-bound Colts, although the Jags and Bucs getting their first victories of the season was also noteworthy.  Now the 2-win teams (Atlanta, Houston, Minnesota) are only a game away from the #1 overall pick, which will equate to either a franchise QB, a once-in-a-decade pass rusher, or a bevy of future first round picks. In other words, get ready for some poorly-disguised tanking.  

Perhaps no team had a better week 10 than the Lions, who swept the Bears, took sole control of the division, saw Seneca Wallace get hurt (who the hell is Scott Tolzien??), and exposed how truly terrible the Bears defense is. Forget the Wildcard. Detroit is now playing for a division title and maybe a homefield playoff game.  

And that's particularly lucky because the Wildcard is not going to be easy.  Carolina has won 5 straight, Arizona is 5-4 and might have the best defense in the NFC, and of course San Francisco will be in the mix.   Detroit's upcoming schedule --  @Pittsburgh, vs. Tampa, vs. Rodgers-less Packers, @Philly, vs. Baltimore, vs. Giants, and @Vikings -- is extremely favorable, as six of those seven teams have terrible defenses, and none of them have a top-ten quarterback.  In fact, the only quarterback I'm slightly afraid of on that docket is Nick Foles (AKA my fantasy savior).  


Speaking of fantasy darling QBs, I've seen enough from both Foles and Case Keenum to say they fully deserve a shot to be their team's starting QB next season.  Keenum looks eerily like a 2006 Romo (that's a compliment, by the way) and Foles - who doesn't really fit the Chip Kelly offense - looks like he has an elite arm and rare pocket poise.  It'll be interesting, as the 2014 draft is loaded with read-option QBs.  The last thing Philly needs is to keep Foles, draft a QB, and then have a controversy all year long.  What they should do is invest in the defense, let Foles play 2014 like he's the man, and if he fails, get a QB in 2015.  Marcus Mariota - the Oregon phenom sophomore - will likely stay in college for one more season and then be the top pick in 2015.  Just saying.  

The biggest bummer of the week was Jake Locker - who I started with confidence in two of my three leagues - breaking his foot early in the game against Jacksonville.  He's lost for the year and his future with the Titans is in limbo.  Their playoff hopes (along with the Raiders, Bills, and Chargers) are also morose at best. 

I'm making two bold and fairly stupid predictions right now.  Both the Ravens and the Giants will make the postseason.  The Giants - who started 0-6 and were blown out in four of those games - are now 3-6, soon to be 4-6, with three remaining games within the division.  They'll win the East at 8-8 on a tiebreaker.  The Ravens, who were looking dead in the water at 3-5, are about to go on a 5-game winning streak, and will ultimately win the AFC North in a winner-take-all matchup against Cincinnati week 17.   

And of course, 9-0 Kansas City plays 8-1 Denver this week, and then against two weeks later.  We'll get to that shortly.  

Here are the week 11 picks. 

Colts (6-3) @ Titans (4-5)
Predicted Line:  IND by 6
Actual Line:  IND by 3 

Getting some line value here, thanks to the Colts' massive loss against St. Louis.  But in a battle between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andrew Luck, this line seems kind of silly, right?  Especially considering that Chris Johnson has reverted back to 2.5 YPC.   Indy's defense is bad, but Tennessee's offense under Fitzpatrick is just as bad.  

Let's not overreact to the Rams-Colts game.  That was basically just four huge plays - a fumble, a punt return, two long passes - that went in favor of the Rams.  The Colts had more yards and more first downs by a considerable number.  The Rams do have an excellent defense, but the Colts aren't nearly as bad as they looked on Sunday.  I think it's a good bargain to take the favorites here since the line is so low.  It'll probably be Indy by 4.5 by gameday.  Indy 27-20.    By the way, what happened to Trent Richardson?  Is he still alive?
(Over 43) 

Lions (6-3) @ Steelers (3-6)
Predicted Line:  DET by 3
Actual Line:  DET by 3 

Isn't it amazing how much better the Lions are than the mighty Pittsburgh Steelers?  We have the better passing game, the better running game, the better quarterback, the better offensive line, and I daresay, even the better defense.  

Now on the flipside, Pittsburgh has a far superior coach and a great homefield advantage, so by no means is this a gimme.  Our cornerbacks were completely hapless against Marshall and Jeffrey, so I'd similarly expect solid games from Antonio Brown and Sanders/Cotchery, which will probably keep the game close.  But Pittsburgh's slow, old defense won't be able to stop the Calvin/Reggie tandem.  Their pass rush, which used to be so dominant, is barely existent at this point. LaMarr Woodley is still good, Polamalu is obviously still a stud, and middle linebacker Lawrence Timmons is one of the best chase-and-tackle guys in the league.  But the rest of the defense is very below average.  Their starting cornerbacks (Taylor & Gay) don't stand a chance against Calvin Johnson.  Also, this might be the long-anticipated return of Nate Burleson!!  I can't hardly contain my excitement. He might catch 2 passes for 13 yards.  

I realize I have been taking the Lions like a homer all season, and I'm doing my best to look at this objectively ... but I still just see a huge mismatch in so many areas.  Roethlisberger loves to get sacked, the Steelers can't block, Suh and Fairley in the middle ... yeah, I'm taking the Lions.  27-23.
(Over 47.5) 

Falcons (2-7) @ Bucs (1-8)
Predicted Line:  ATL by 1.5
Actual Line:  ATL by 2 

This is a no-win situation for me.  I've taken Atlanta in 4 of their last 5 games and lost each time.  They are coming off three straight blowouts (all against playoff-caliber teams, granted).  They can't seem to compete with anyone since losing Julio Jones.  They even lost to the Jets in a game which they were favored to win by 10.  

But then there's Tampa.  How has Greg Schiano not been fired yet?  He's made a complete mockery of that franchise, he's more dispised by his fan base than any coach in any sport right now.  And yet, the 1-8 Bucs could conceivably be 5-4.  They outplayed Seattle in Seattle two weeks ago, and then those same Seahawks turned around and pummeled Atlanta.   So I'm actually inclined to take Tampa.  What the heck.  Bucs 27-24.  
(Over 43) 

Jets (5-4) @ Bills (3-7)
Predicted Line:  NYJ by 1
Actual Line:  BUF by 1 

Two rookie QBs, two pretty good defenses.  This is a classic coinflip.  So, I literally just flipped a coin.  I'm taking the Jets.  Let's say 23-21.
(Over 41) 

Redskins (3-6) @ Eagles (5-5)
Predicted Line:  PHI by 4
Actual Line:  PHI by 3.5

Question:  who is the best quarterback in the NFC East right now?  Is it the two-time Super Bowl MVP?  The reigning Rookie of the Year who was recently worth three 1st round picks?  Or the guy who routinely throws for 400 yards and 3 TDs in losing efforts?   

How about none of them.  Nick Stinkin Foles has not thrown an interception this season, he has SIXTEEN touchdowns and among QBs with 100 attempts, he's first in YPA, first in QB rating, and tenth in completion percentage.  There are TEN quarterbacks who have thrown at least twice as many passes as Foles and yet have thrown fewer touchdown passes:  Flacco, Brady, Ben, RG3, Tannehill, Eli, Palmer, Luck, Alex & Geno Smith.  

Matt Stafford has thrown 237 more passes than Foles, and has three more touchdowns.  

I know it's skewed by the 7-td performance, but we can't act like the 7-td performance didn't happen.  This guy is throwing the deep ball better than anybody right now.   

Everybody I've read is jumping all over the Redskins because of that half-point.  If the Eagles only win by 3, whatever.  I'm rolling with Foles.  Philly 30-23.
(Under 53) 

Ravens (4-5) @ Bears (5-4)
Predicted Line:  CHI by 1.5
Actual Line:  CHI by 3 

If I'm going to pick Baltimore to make the playoffs, I guess I ought to back it up.    Although Josh McCown is an upgrade over Cutler, he's not going to revitalize the offense entirely;  Baltimore's defense is extremely good and has been underrated since week 2.  Plus Matt Forte looks like he's wearing lead shoes.  On the other side of the ball, Baltimore's crap offense should be able to move the ball against the Bears' crap defense.  This game has ugly written all over it. Let's say Ravens 20-16.
(Under 46.5) 

Browns (4-5) @ Bengals (6-4)
Predicted Line:  CIN by 4.5
Actual Line:  CIN by 6

Two many points in a divisional game, with the Bengals missing their two best defenders, and Joe Haden covering A.J. Green.   Cleveland's defense is good.   Bengals 16-13.  
(Under 42.5)

Raiders (3-6) @ Texans (2-7)
Predicted Line:  HOU by 3.5
Actual Line:  HOU by 7 

When you're on a 7 game losing streak, your franchise QB falls apart mentally and then induces cheers from the home crowd when he gets injured, your franchise player (Foster) needs back surgery, your coach inexplicably passes out on the sideline and Wade Phillips takes over, you just released your prized free agent acquisition in the middle of the season,  and your playoff hopes are completely obliterated as your watch Andrew Luck dominate the division just like Peyton Manning used to .... the best possible remedy is a home game against Matt McGloin.  


Who is Matt McGloin, you ask?  I have absolutely no idea.  Apparently, he is an undrafted rookie QB from Penn State.  As a general rule, when you only complete 57% of your passes in college and lose to teams called Ohio and Virginia, you aren't going to succeed in the NFL.  Oakland can't wait to get Terrelle Pryor back.  Texans 24-14.  Here comes the big Ben Tate game we've been waiting for all these years.   
(Under 42)

Cardinals (5-4) @ Jaguars (1-8)
Predicted Line:  ARZ by 6.5
Actual Line:  ARZ by 7

Copy-pasting WalterFootball.com on this one:  "I'm not a fan of laying a touchdown on the road with a mediocre team, but this is a special case because the Jaguars are an abomination. They got their fluke win out of the way, so now they'll continue to do what they do best - lose by double digits." 

Cards 24-16.
(Under 41) 

Chargers (4-5) @ Dolphins (4-5)
Predicted Line:  MIA by 2.5
Actual Line:   SD by 1.5 

93% of the betting on the road team. Nobody wants to touch the Martin-Incognito fiasco right now.  Whatever - I'll take the home dog.  This spread doesn't make sense for two evenly matched teams.  Miami 23-20.  
(Under 45.5) 

Vikings (2-7) @ Seahawks (9-1)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 12.5
Actual Line:  SEA by 13

Minnesota is the shrewd pick here, as Seattle has looked vulnerable against the run lately and AP is somewhat of a legend in the making.  It wouldn't shock me at all if Peterson had a monster game and kept it close, maybe even pulled off the upset.  But the more I think about Christian Ponder against the league's best secondary in the league's toughest stadium, the more I envision his stat line being something like 9 for 22 for 85 yards and 3 INTs. Seattle 27-13.  
(Under 46)

49ers (6-3) @ Saints (7-2)
Predicted Line:  NO by 3.5
Actual Line:  NO by 2.5

I was hoping to take the Niners to cover in a close game, but this spread is too low.  Saints by a field goal I guess.  33-30.
(Over 47.5) 

Packers (5-4) @ Giants (3-6)
Predicted Line:  NYG by 4.5
Actual Line:  NYG by 6

I'm going to have to pick against Scott Tolzier just on principle.  Giants 27-20.
(Over 42) 

Chiefs (9-0) @ Broncos (8-1)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 4.5
Actual Line:  DEN by 8

There's at least a 40% chance the Chiefs win straight up, so I've gotta take these points.  Denver 31-27. 
(Over 49.5)

Patriots (7-2) @ Panthers (6-3)
Predicted Line:  NE by 1.5
Actual Line:  CAR by 1 

Carolina is simply the better team. Panthers 26-16. 
(Under 46) 

Go Lions!!!! 

PS - Flying to India tomorrow.  

Week 10 Picks

Week nine recap:
8-5 straight up
5-8 against the spread
8-5 over/unders

Overall:
90-43 straight up (67.6%)
68-60-5 against the spread (53.1%)
15-10-1 over/unders (60%) 

A brutal week against the spread.   Where to begin?  

The Bengals went from 49-9 winners to outright losers in Miami.  Dalton went from nearly flawless against the Jets to four turnovers and an overtime sack.  The Fins, who couldn't run the ball whatsoever in their first seven games, had their first 100 yard rusher with Lamar Miller on only 16 carries. (Can't overstate the detrimental loss of Geno Atkins, who went out in the 2nd quarter and is lost for the season with an ACL.  The Bengals just might lose their next five games and botch what appeared to be an easy division title.)  Also worth noting:  Miami finally was able to run the ball in their first game without Jonathan Martin.  Now they'll be without Richie Incognito for the rest of the year and forevermore.  

Speaking of Incognito ... what a weird, weird story.  I'm annoyed by the level of shock and outrage being displayed by all the talking heads.  Really, you're surprised that an NFL player uses inappropriate language? I've never been in an NFL locker room, but it doesn't take a genius to know that "racist slurs" and "homophobic slurs" are part of how these guys talk. I'm not defending Incognito - I'm sure he's a monumental asshole - but I also think this story is way out of control.  It's going to be the new "Bounty Gate" or "Spy Gate": making a huge deal out of something that probably happens on every team.  Maybe this was an extreme example, but that doesn't make me care about it.  Let's just start calling this "Bully Gate" and move on to more interesting stories. 

The Jets went from 9-49 losers to beating the mighty Saints and holding Drew Brees to only 20 points.  I picked that game correctly against the spread (NO by 6), but was still shocked by the result.  With losses by the Chargers and Ravens, I'd say the Jets are probably the most logical pick for the #6 seed right now.   Another game I picked correctly but was still stunned by was Philly beating Oakland.  The Raiders were a slight favorite at home.  I picked Philly 26-23; instead Philly won 49-20.  Nick Foles played one of the best statistical games in NFL history, with 7 TDs and near-perfect stats.  

Then there was Tom Brady, who waited until nine games into the season to finally play a decent game and totally obliterate the Steelers in old-school Patriots fashion.  As much as I begrudge Brady for screwing up my fantasy season, I did love seeing that.  Pittsburgh is 2-6.  Time to start rebuilding you morons.  Go eat a hoagie.   

The weirdest game of the week was Seattle barely eking out a win at home against winless Tampa.  That's the second week in a row that Seattle got totally outplayed and still won.  Don't know if that makes them resilient or vulnerable.  I guess both.  

Oh, also, Aaron Rodgers is out for 3 weeks.  GO LIONS!! 

Edit - Apparently this is the week to return from injuries.  Jay Cutler, Clay Matthews, Aldon Smith, Roddy White, EJ Manuel, and Andre Brown are all coming back.  

Here are the week 10 picks: 

Redskins (3-5) @ Vikings (1-7) - Thursday 
Predicted Line:  WAS by 3
Actual Line:  WAS by 2

Two bad defenses, two good running attacks.  But the easy choice is the superior quarterback.  Redskins 24-17.
(Under 50) 


Bills (3-6) @ Steelers (2-6)
Predicted Line: PIT by 2.5
Actual Line:  PIT by 2.5

Not surprisingly, the Bills are an underdog that the public loves, with 61% of the betting on their side.  How could anyone side with Pittsburgh after their wheels fell off against New England in a pathetic display of slowness and old age.  The Bills can run the ball, rush the passer, they have their starting QB back, and Pittsburgh looks like an absolute train wreck right now.  Easy money right?   But on the flip side... the home team has the better QB and the better coach. Plus I have a funny feeling that EJ Manuel is going to need more than one game to fully get caught back up to NFL speed. Pittsburgh 27-23.
(Over 44)

Lions (5-3) @ Bears (5-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 1.5Actual Line:  Pick Em 

It's scary how much love there is for the Lions in the general public right now.  Writers, radio people, just about everyone is enamored with them following the incredible Cowboys comeback game.  Between that and the injury to Aaron Rodgers, let's just pencil Detroit into the playoffs.  

Yikes. 

Not so fast.  

Yes, Stafford's last-minute comeback was arguably the best minute of his career, but it wasn't exactly a pristine game for him.  In fact, if you take Megatron off the offense, it's probably safe to say we would have lost 44-10 instead of winning 31-30.  But - there are a lot of things to be excited about.  Calvin, Suh, Bush, Levy all playing extremely well.  Stafford playing pretty well most of the time.  The offensive line holding its own.  The safeties are competent; the cornerbacks are below-average but not as awful as previous years.   What's lacking right now is a pass rush - Detroit has just 13 sacks in 8 games.  That's the fewest among teams that are actually competitive.  When you're spending all your first round draft picks on D-linemen, that's a bad stat.  Ziggy Ansah is not a bust, but he's sure not a top 5 pick.  

The big story in this game is Jay Cutler.  He's returning earlier than expected from the groin injury, and I'm almost a little bit glad.  Josh McCown looked plenty capable last week against the Packers.  We know what we can expect from Cutler - bad decisions, bad pocket presence, bad attitude.  Without Forte and Marshall, Cutler would be one of the worst five starting QBs in the league.  

Truth is, both of these teams are extremely flawed, and neither should be considered a strong contender to beat out Green Bay.  Remember, Detroit went 4-12 last year and still employs a terrible head coach. Chicago is without Lance Briggs, their defensive centerpiece, and has been giving up 130 rushing yards a game.  

I don't like the Lions on the road, I don't like the Lions outdoors, but I really don't like the Bears chances against Calvin Johnson, particularly in the 4th quarter.  This'll be one of those sloppy, back-and-forth, see-which-team-can-make-more-mistakes type of games, with the Lions winning on a late field goal, 33-31.  
(Over 52.5) 

Jaguars (0-8) @ Titans (4-4)
Predicted Line:  TEN by 11.5
Actual Line:  TEN by 13 

Commencing Jake Locker Overreaction Week, after he goes 22 for 28, for 290 yards and 3 TDs, with a fancy 40 yard touchdown scamper mixed in.  Titans 38-20.  
(Over 41) 

Eagles (4-4) @ Packers (5-3)
Predicted Line:  GB by 1
Actual Line:  GB by 1

It's not about betting against the Packers now that Rodgers is out.  It's just about believing that Nick Foles is legit.  Eagles 27-23. 
(Over 47)

Raiders (3-5) @ Giants (2-5)
Predicted Line: NYG by 4.5
Actual Line:  NYG by 7.5

Can't possibly trust the Giants for this many points after the way they began the season.  Plus Terrelle Pryor seems poised to steal the title of Backdoor Bandit from Cam Newton.  Giants 20-17.
(Under 44)

Rams (3-6) @ Colts (6-2)
Predicted Line: IND by 7.5
Actual Line:  IND by 10

Again, too many points.  Rams have found their running back, Colts have not figured out how to play defense. Indy in a comeback.  30-27.  
(Over 44)

Seahawks (8-1) @ Falcons (2-6)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 4.5
Actual Line: SEA by 6

Atlanta has been blown out in consecutive home games (both of which I picked them ATS), but I still feel this is too many points.  Matt Ryan is still good, now he's got Roddy White and Steven Jackson back, and Seattle is eking out ugly wins.  I'll say Seattle 21-20. 
(Under 45)

Bengals (6-3) @ Ravens (3-5)
Predicted Line:  BAL by 2.5
Actual Line:  CIN by 1

Geno Atkins and Leon Hall out for Cincy.  Baltimore's season on the line.  John Harbaugh has something like a 70% ATS winning percentage in home games.  Plus a million more reasons to take the Ravens.  Baltimore 27-22. 
(Over 44)

Panthers (5-3) @ 49ers (6-2)
Predicted Line:  SF by 5
Actual Line:  SF by 6

Carolina's playing too good right now not to take the points.  Niners 23-20.
(Under 43.5)

Texans (2-6) @ Cardinals (4-4)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 4
Actual Line:  ARZ by 3

Love the Texans this week - Case Keenum is very impressive to me, and Ben Tate finally gets a week with no Foster to show what he can do.  I've been drafting him in fantasy football for the past 3 seasons waiting for him to finally get the starting job.  Anything less than 160 yards would be a disappointment. Houston wins on the road and stays alive, 26-14.  
(Over 41.5)

Broncos (7-1) @ Chargers (4-4)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 6.5
Actual Line:  DEN by 7

I've picked seven underdogs in a row and here comes another one.  Broncos 31-27.  
(Under 58.5)

Cowboys (5-4) @ Saints (6-2)
Predicted Line:  NO by 7
Actual Line:  NO by 7

The underdog streak continues.  Tony Romo plays up to the level of other elite QBs, so long as he doesn't win the game.  Saints 34-30.    "Anytime you lose, it's disappointing. We just didn't get the job done today." [Know your Romo]
(Over 54)

Dolphins (4-4) @ Bucs (0-8)
Predicted Line:  MIA by 3
Actual Line:  MIA by 3

Make that nine underdog picks in a row, and going out with a bang, as the winless homedog Bucs notch their first victory and send Jaguar fans into jubilee as they celebrate the #1 pick in next April's draft.  Just kidding - there aren't any Jaguar fans.  Tampa runs all over Miami, and cruises 27-16. 
(Under 41) 

GO LIONS!