Thoughts on Super Bowl and some other stuff

Sorry I've been slacking lately and haven't written anything on here. To be honest, I'm not really that excited about the Super Bowl. I have this dreadful feeling that the Giants are going to pull off another upset and Eli is going to considered a first ballot Hall of Famer by the end of February. This morning, John Clayton said that if not for Brees and Rodgers, Eli would have been the league's MVP this year. Really??? With a 9-7 record and the 7th best QB rating in the league? With fewer yards, TDs, and fewer wins than Stafford? Not to mention Tom Brady?

I'm okay with saying Eli was a top 8 MVP candidate this year, but clearly there are at least 4 quarterbacks who had better seasons, and Calvin, McCoy and Ray Rice belong above Eli in MVP voting as well. What Clayton said was basically like someone on Fox News saying, "If you don't count Romney, Gingrich and Santorum, Rick Perry could be the next President."

You can't just discount Rodgers and Brees. That makes no sense. Whatever.

By the way, I am officially on the Ron Paul bandwagon, even though the GOP nomination is between Frankenstein and Susan Boyle. (aka Romney and Gingrich)

Speaking of people who look like Newt Gingrich, have you seen this? Haunting.

Anyway, here's the Super Bowl pick.

Patriots (15-3) @ Giants (12-7)

Line: NE by 3

Patriots have won 10 straight; Giants have won 5 in a row. But the Giants road to the championship (Atlanta, @Green Bay, @San Fran) was a billion times more difficult than New England's (BYE, BYE, home against Baltimore who missed a 32 yard field goal which would have forced overtime). Gronkowski has a high ankle sprain, the Giants D is completely healthy and playing better than they've played in years, and Brady is coming off one of his worst playoff games ever. Oh, and the Pats secondary looks as bad as ever, giving up their standard 300+ yards to a mediocre quarterback last week.

I see New England coming out fast, with a smart gameplan of quick passes and screens designed to counter the Giants' vaunted pass rush. Giving Belichick two weeks to prepare usually leads to some high-scoring first halves. Brady should get his groove on early, and the Pats will be up 24-13 at half.

But Coughlin has a knack for adjustments and New England's defense has a knack for collapses, so I expect the Giants to come back, slowly but surely, until there's 4:00 left in the 4th quarter and Eli leads the 90 yard drive to tie the game at 34. Then, Brady drives down, stalls in the red zone, and the Pats kick a field goal with too much time left. Up 3 with 1:15 left, New England kicks off, and Victor Cruz does the rest, as the Giants easily march down the field for 7 and leave Brady with just 20 seconds and trailing 37-41. The hailmary falls incomplete, Eli collects his second title in Peyton's house, and I throw up in my mouth.

Giants 41-37.

In other news, the Tigers got Prince Fielder, Peyton Manning's career in Indy is over, and I seem to be the only person who cares about the NBA this season. Both of my fantasy basketball teams are kicking butt.

I'm considering my annual 50 Best Players in the NBA list, but it's still a work in progress.

Go Timberwolves.

Round 3 Playoff Picks

5-3 so far in the playoffs for both ATS and straight-up picks, making me 136-128-10 on the entire season, and 178-86 straight-up, with three games to go. This weekend's games are both really tricky.

Ravens @ Patriots

Predicted Line: NE by 6.5

Actual Line: NE by 7

When in serious doubt about the outcome of a game, I usually take the points. I don't think enough people are seeing Baltimore as a legit title contender. Sure, Joe Flacco looks like Sylar from Heroes but with the worst mustache in human history . And true, he completed less than 20 passes per game this season. But let's be honest about the Baltimore offense: it revolves around Ray Rice, an elite fullback, and a really competent offensive line. When Flacco does throw, it's not dink and dump; he takes deep shots and he usually completes one or two of them per game. When you're going against an almost historically bad secondary, it stands to reason that Flacco should find Torrey Smith for 40+ yards at least once, maybe twice. New England couldn't stop anybody late this season - not Rex Grossman, not Matt Moore, not even Dan Orlovsky, who put up 353 yards and completed 30 of 37 passes.

Last week, Tebow was an abomination. He had 3 completions in the first half, and he's the only starting QB in the NFL who could be that bad against New England's defense. Flacco could throw left-handed and do better than Tebow did. And I'm not bashing Tebow ... it's just nice to have a decent throwing arm when you're playing against coverage guys who can't cover.

I think Flacco and Rice and Smith help Baltimore keep pace with Brady, who will make his share of plays but won't be having a scrimmage like last week. I expect Baltimore to create 2 or 3 turnovers and keep the game close. But I am taking the Pats straight up, mainly because they're at home. I actually think Baltimore is the better team. But whatever, let's go Pats 28-26.

Giants @ 49ers

Predicted Line: SF by 3

Actual Line: SF by 2.5

Don't really feel great about either team, but I'll take the home squad. Niners by 4. I doubt the Harbaughs will go 0-2 this week, and I really don't see New York's defense stopping Frank Gore very well. Plus, Patrick Willis might be at the stage in his career where he single-handedly wills his teams to playoff victories. San Fran 24-20.

That's it ... go Lions.

Also, Victor Martinez is out for the season, so the Tigers season is over before it started. Who's going to hit behind Cabrera? Boesch? Avila? Anybody have any good lineup suggestions? My best shot looks like this:

1. A Jackson CF

2. D Young DH

3. M Cabrera 1B

4. B Boesch LF

5. A Avila C

6. J Peralta SS

7. A Dirks RF

8. R Santiago 2B

9. D Kelly 3B

That's pretty ugly without Martinez. Unless Detroit makes a big move in the next two months, we aren't going to win the Central. And if Inge is starting at third in the opener, I'll personally guarantee that I won't watch a single game until July.

Go lions...

Playoffs Round 2, Plus a Look Ahead to April

Went 2-2 ATS and 3-1 straight up, missing badly on the Tebow game, which broke the record for Most Tweets Per Second. Literally. What is there to say about Tebow that hasn't already been said. Nothing. I'm so eternally glad that Pittsburgh is out.

Last year, my 3 least favorite teams were in the final 4 (PIT, CHI, NYJ). This year, I actually like all of the final 8 teams a decent amount, though the order of who I am cheering for goes like this:
1. New England
2. Denver
3. New Orleans
4. Green Bay
5. Houston
6. Baltimore
7. Giants
8. San Fran

I still love my preseason prediction of Saints over Packers in the NFC Championship. Nobody will see them coming as everyone overemphasizes the cold outdoor weather. I don't think Drew Brees will care. As for San Diego, they can all go suck a bunch of lemons.

Saints @ 49ers
Predicted Line: NO by 3.5
Actual Line: NO by 3.5

I'm taking the points. San Fran won't make it easy for Brees. Their defense is a million times better than Detroit's. I'll say Saints 30-27.

Broncos @ Patriots
Predicted Line: NE by 9.5
Actual Line: NE by 13.5

Pats have lost their first playoff game two years in a row. There's not a chance in hell that that happens again. Not against Tim Tebow.

This is a dreadful matchup for Denver. New England's D is actually decent against the run (Wilfork, Mayo), but can't stop the pass or rush the passer. Tebow might have lit up the Steelers with 10 completions for 300+ yards, but still, it was just 10 completions. That doesn't usually work. Not when the other quarterback is arguably The Greatest of All Time.

Patriots 41-23.

I should probably say something about Josh McDaniels, the former Pats coordinator who took the Denver job, drafted Tebow, got fired, took a job with the Rams, coordinated the worst offense in the NFL and possibly crushed Sam Bradford's career, and then quit to reunite with Brady and Belichick in the middle of the playoffs, right in time to face his former team and his former 1st round draft pick. What a coward. I would hate his guts if I were a Rams fan. I pretty much hate his guts anyway. He better not get one single ounce of credit for Brady's 5 TD game.

Texans @ Ravens
Predicted Line: BAL by 6.5
Actual Line: BAL 7.5

Both teams are looking to run the ball, control the clock, and play awesome defense. So this line has to be a little bit too high. Andre Johnson is supposedly fully healthy and Baltimore doesn't have anyone who can cover him. But I'll take the Ravens 24-20.

Giants @ Packers
Predicted Line: GB by 10.5
Actual Line: GB by 7.5

How about Packers 41-13.

... More to come later I guess ...

*Quick note on the NBA.

Ever since Joe Dumars traded Chauncey away and plunged the Pistons head-first into a septic tank, I have been searching for a new team to root for. I briefly entertained flings with the Bucks and Grizzlies and the Thunder, and early this season I was pretty excited about the Clippers. But I believe I have settled with a new love interest, and it may surprise you.

The Minnesota Timberwolves.

Yeah, they haven't been good since KG left 4 years ago, and yeah they were never really good before that. But I love Kevin Love (the hero of my fantasy team), I love rookie Derrick Williams, and I love Ricky Rubio. The supporting cast has all sorts of great characters - JJ Barea, Luke Ridnour, Michael Beasely, assistant coach Bill Laimbeer, and of course, Darko!

So that's my note about the NBA. Of course, my main routing interest is still the same: anybody but the Heat. Also, don't look now but with a new coach and a new GM the Pistons might be able to rebuild 2 or 3 years from now. They have two decent building blocks with Knight and Monroe. If they can keep those guys, keep Jerebko, and draft a mega-stud player to build around, they can compete in a few years. So basically, we need a top 3 pick and we need to not screw the pick up.

Back to the NFL.

The Lions are officially slotted as pick #23 on the Draft board, which means I've already begun the analysis process. Last year at pick #14 it was significantly later than we are used to picking. But #23 is crazy. I don't know how to function in a world where Detroit doesn't get a top 20 prospect. All this fantastic talent is leaving the silly world of college football and entering the NFL, and Detroit doesn't get any of it. Oh the woes of being a playoff team.

Making things worse for Detroit, two of the top QB prospects (Matt Barkley and Landry Jones) decided to stay in school for another year, presumably so they can battle for the right to be taken #1 in 2013. That means two less QBs will be taken in the top 20, which means two less OT/DE/LB/CBs will be available.

Of course, Mayhew and Lewand and Schwartz have made it clear that Detroit doesn't draft for need. Perhaps that's why Nick Fairley was the least effective rookie taken in the first round of 2011. Because he was coming off the freaking bench. Maybe this year the Lions will address any one of the 6 glaring positions of need (the four I mentioned, plus center and safety) with their first round pick, but based on history, we're more likely to take a backup QB or another freaking defensive tackle.

I'm starting to chart out a mock draft for April, but with still a lot left to be determined, I'm not getting ahead of myself. We know the Colts are taking Luck #1, and it will be very interesting to see if Peyton gets traded or retains the starting job. I'd like to see Indy keep him, but he's owed something like $28 million next year, so trading him is certainly sensible.

Teams that definitely need a new quarterback include the Redskins and Seahawks, but teams that aren't completely sold on their current starter will be a much longer list: Jets, Browns, Bills, Dolphins, Jaguars, Cardinals, Rams, Vikings, Bucs, Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, 49ers, Titans ...

Really, less than half of the league (15 teams by my count) are happy with their current starting quarterback. Those teams are, in descending order, the Saints, Packers, Pats, Lions, Panthers, Steelers, Giants, Chargers, Bengals, Cowboys, Eagles, Texans, Falcons, Ravens, and Bears. And you could argue that 4 or 5 of those guys are replaceable if the right situation (namely, Peyton) was available.

So while only a few teams are in the Peyton market, probably upwards of 12 teams are in the market for the 2nd quarterback in the NFL Draft, Robert Griffin III. A lot of pundits think Griffin will be taken 2nd overall, not by the Rams, but by the highest bidder. The Browns (4th pick) stand to land Griffin if he drops, but with teams jockeying for position to move ahead of Cleveland, Cleveland might just want to move ahead of themselves. They have the most picks to make an offer that St. Louis can't deny.

However, the #2 prospect after Andrew Luck is a once-in-a-decade left tackle, Matt Kalil from USC. Kalil is considered a clone of Jake Long or Joe Thomas, and will probably be one of the best LTs in the NFL within one season. The Rams would be smart to ignore trade offers and take Kalil, which would give the Vikings (pick 3) the chance to hold an auction and amass picks.

That's what I see happening right now. I don't think St. Louis wants to trade out of pick #2 and lose the chance at Kalil. But there isn't a clear #3 prospect for the Vikings to take ... CB Claiborne from LSU or WR Blackmon from OSU are more of mid-first round pick type of talent. The Vikings very well might trade out of the 3 spot to the highest bidder, and end up addressing needs later in the draft, probably getting a future 1st rounder as well.

With the new rules of the CBA, teams actually won't be afraid to trade up into the top 5. Paying a top 5 pick is no longer a death sentence; it's actually the best way to rebuild. So expect the Robert Griffin bonanza to be crazy and teams to offer an arm, leg and a kidney to obtain his services. Whether he'll succeed in the NFL or not is a different story. I'm not convinced. Of course that's what I said about Cam Newton....

Anyway, my hope is the Lions will play it smart, address a need on the O-line or the defense, not do anything cute (like the stupid Pettigrew pick a few years ago), and get their asses back in the playoffs next year. Before the Draft, the key is going to be re-signing key players, namely Avril and Tulloch. We might not be able to afford both guys, so Tulloch is more vital in my mind than Avril, because we have no depth at linebacker.

That's all for now.

peace

Playoff Picks - Round 1

These are going to be insanely quick .... sorry in advance ...

Bengals (9-7) @ Texans (10-6)
Line: HOU by 2.5

Foster and the Texans D are the difference. Houston 23-16.

Lions (10-6) @ Saints (13-3)
Line: NO by 10.5

I've gotta at least take the points. I honestly believe the Lions have a chance. But I will say Saints 41-37.

Falcons (10-6) @ Giants (9-7)
Line: NYG by 3

Matt Ryan outside, no thanks. Giants 27-14.

Steelers (12-4) @ Broncos (8-8)
Line: PIT by 9

This line is fifteen points too low. Steelers 35-0. Sorry Tebow.


GO LIONS.

week 17 picks

Despite a blistering 13-3 week straight-up, I managed to go just 6-9-1 against the spread.

Finished the regular season 131-125-10 ATS and 173-83 straight-up.

Some of these games are for all the marbles; others are for no marbles at all. Week 17 is usually the toughest week to pick. For many players, it's a glorified scrimmage. But for many other players (and coaches), it's a last-ditch effort to keep a job.

No Thursday games, no Monday games. Let's start with the worthless games and get to the good stuff last.

Redskins (5-10) @ Eagles (7-8)
Predicted Line: PHI by 7
Actual Line: PHI by 9

Last week was vintage Mike Shanahan. Trying once again to prove that he can squeeze productivity out of any random running back, Shanny gave 21 touches to never-before-heard-of rookie Evan Royster, who previously had just 20 total touches on the season. Ryan Torain was healthy, but like I've said before, Shanahan thinks he's coaching fantasy football, so he just plays whoever he wants.

Royster predictably did great (132 yards), but the Redskins lost at home to a 2-12 Vikings team that was without Adrian Peterson. Soo ... I guess we should congratulate Shanahan on getting what he wanted (100 yards for a guy named Royster), despite losing a game he definitely should have won. And somehow, I seem to be the only one who thinks Shanahan should be fired...?

The Eagles will probably win, but 9 points is a lot to ask for. I'll go Philly 27-20.

Bears (7-8) @ Vikings (3-12)
Predicted Line: MIN by 2
Actual Line: Pick Em

Even before the Bears were officially eliminated, this game was going to be Josh McCown against Joe Webb, with AP and Forte out. Yikes.

The Bears are 0-4 since losing Cutler and Forte, while the Vikings have had a chance to win in three of their last four. A Minnesota win combined with losses by Tampa, Cleveland and/or Jacksonville could move the Vikings draft position from 3rd to 5th or 6th. That would be sweet!

I guess I'll take the home team. No idea what to expect in this battle for worthlessness. Vikings by 3.

Seahawks (7-8) @ Cardinals (7-8)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 2
Actual Line: ARZ by 3

Of all the meaningless games, this is the worst. Both teams were statistically alive last week; both teams are dead now. Nothing matters in this game - not draft order, not coach's futures, nothing. So assuming everybody plays relatively hard, I think the better team is probably Arizona by a hair, so I'll take them 24-20.

Lions (10-5) @ Packers (14-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: DET by 1

This game is technically meaningless, as both teams are playoff-bound. Green Bay has locked up the #1 seed, and will probably sit Rodgers on the bench for at least the second half. Detroit is playing for a shot at the 5th seed (and a game against the NFC East winner, which I'm not convinced is better than playing San Fran), but more importantly, we're playing for momentum going into the playoffs. Granted, beating up on Matt Flynn might not be too extraordinary, but 11-5 would sound better than 10-6. I think Detroit probably wins by 4ish.

*EDIT
I am retarted. I just realized that the 6 seed in the NFC will be playing New Orleans, not San Francisco. Both teams are 12-3 and San Fran has the tiebreaker. The only way San Fran loses the bye is if they lose to St. Louis, which is simply not happening. So in other words, Detroit desperately NEEDS to win this game, to avoid playing the red hot Saints and Drew Freaking Brees. Holy crap, why didn't I realize that earlier?

Colts (2-13) @ Jaguars (4-11)
Predicted Line: JAC by 4
Actual Line: JAC by 4

All that 'Suck for Luck' stuff actually lived up to the hype. This game is huge. If Indy wins, they'll be picking #2, assuming the Rams lose to San Francisco, which they will. That means Indy gets USC left tackle Matt Kalil to protect Peyton Manning next year (and a great building block for the future), and it means the Rams get the #1 pick and will auction it off to the highest bidder, which could be any of 10 or 15 teams. This game is huge.

If I'm a Colts player, I'd be going all out, because I'd rather pick #2 and avoid the media circus. If I'm a Jags player, I'm tanking, going for a top 4 pick. No clue how it might play out, with a horrendous quarterback matchup and two absymal coaches, but I guess I'll take the points and say Jags by 3.

Bucs (4-11) @ Falcons (9-6)
Predicted Line: ATL by 10.5
Actual Line: ATL by 14

Atlanta clinched the playoffs with losses by Seattle, Arizona and Chicago, but a win here combined with a Detroit loss would give them the 5 seed, so they'll be trying like crazy. The last thing they want is a rematch against Brees in the first round of the playoffs. For Tampa, not so much trying. They still have a shot at a top 5 pick in the Draft. So I will take Atlanta to cover the gigantic spread, 27-10.

49ers (12-3) @ Rams (2-13)
Predicted Line: SF by 9
Actual Line: SF by 10.5

With the Saints winning on Monday night and moving to 12-3, the Niners will be forced to actually play this game in order to clinch a bye. The 49ers will win, of course, but it might be hard for them to fully focus on this game knowing that the playoffs are right around the corner. Besides, they know they can beat the Rams giving only half an effort. Heck, the Rams are torn between starting Kellen Clemens and Tom Bradstater. But winning big on the road isn't always easy, and the Rams might be compelled to try to save some pride or maybe to avoid having the #1 pick circus. Either way, I'll take the points. I'll say Niners by 10.

Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (12-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 9.5
Actual Line: NO by 9.5

Brees broke the single-season passing yards record last night. Newton broke the rookie passing yards record last week. Newton has the most rushing TDs ever for a quarterback, and Brees is a few games away from the record for most consecutive games with a TD pass. Newton will win ROY, and Brees actually created an amazingly close MVP battle with Rodgers.

Sucks to be Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman in that division.

Both of these teams are extremely hot right now, and I've been picking (and winning) with the Saints for a few weeks in a row. But I'm taking the Panthers here for two reasons:
1. Cam is the backdoor master;
2. But mainly, because the Saints will be scoreboard-watching, and if the SF-STL game is totally out of hand early, the Saints will have nothing to play for. I expect that'll happen, and Brees might sit out the 4th, allowing Newton to stage a comeback and possibly win outright.

I'll say Saints by a score of 30-27.

Titans (8-7) @ Texans (10-5)
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 3

Houston is locked in to the 3 seed and can sit their starters if they choose, while the Titans are playing for a chance at the playoffs (if the Jets and Bengals lose). Sure would make sense to take Tennessee. I guess I won't overthink it. Titans 21-13.

Jets (8-7) @ Dolphins (5-10)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 1.5

The Jets need to win to stay alive, and they also need the Bengals and Titans to lose. Miami continues to play hard, but they'll be without Jake Long in this contest. I'll take New York by 3.

Bills (6-9) @ Pats (12-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 12.5
Actual Line: NE by 11.5

New England simply needs a win and they've secured the #1 pick. Pretty amazing for a team with horrendous defense. I'm taking New England here because the Bills beat the Pats back in week 3, and Brady has made a career out of avenging losses. Plus, Brady needs 200ish yards to co-break Marino's record, and he probably wants 4 touchdowns to get him to the 40 plateau. This just seems like a classic 'run up the score' game. Pats 48-20.

Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (4-11)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6.5
Actual Line: PIT by 7

Roethlisberger is questionable but should play, at least for the first half. The Steelers will be scoreboard-watching, because the Ravens also play at 4:15 and if they go up big early on the Bengals, the Steelers won't have any reason to play. But if Baltimore is in a close game, Pittsburgh will demolish the Browns, and that's what I expect to happen. Stellers 27-6.

Ravens (11-4) @ Bengals (9-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 4.5
Actual Line: BAL by 2.5

Huge game #1.

If Cincy wins, they play Houston in the playoffs and Baltimore gets the dreaded 5 seed and has to travel to either Denver or Oakland, while Pittsburgh gets a bye, a home game, and a really, really good chance at the Super Bowl. Yuck.

If Baltimore wins, Cincy still has a chance at the playoffs if they get losses from the Jets, Titans, and either Raiders or Broncos.

This is a really tough call. I'm taking Baltimore, 23-21.

Chargers (7-8) @ Raiders (8-7)
Predicted Line: OAK by 4
Actual Line: OAK by 3

Chargers' season is over; Raiders make the playoffs with a win and a Denver loss, or a win and losses by the Bengals and Titans. Gonna take the Chargers, 22-16.

Chiefs (6-9) @ Tebows (8-7)
Predicted Line: DEN by 6.5
Actual Line: DEN by 3

KYLE ORTON REVENGE GAME!!
Chiefs 23-20 in OT.

So to recap the AFC,
Broncos AND Raiders lose, Denver takes the division at 8-8 and will host the Steelers in the playoffs, while Tennessee gets the other Wildcard spot and will play at Houston in a week 17 rematch.

Then in round 2 of the AFC playoffs, New England gets an easy win against either Houston or Tennessee, while Pittsburgh plays at Baltimore in the annual Ravens-Steelers playoff matchup.

So just like I said a month ago, the AFC is a three-team conference.

Cowboys (8-7) @ Giants (8-7)
Predicted Line: NYG by 3
Actual Line: NYG by 3

Assuming Detroit beats the Packers' backups, this Sunday night matchup will determine who Detroit plays in the first round. Both fan bases are completely unconfident in their underperforming and mistake-prone teams.

Romo is starting with a bad finger, Felix is starting with a bad hamstring, while the Giants will be without Umenyiora, Manningham, and Ballard. It's very likely that the losing coach will be fired and the losing quarterback will be berated, while the winners of this game will see their demise postponed at least 2 weeks, and then the firing and berating will commence. These are two of the most unclutch franchises in sports.

I see this game coming down to the final possession, and that usually means it's a coin flip. But if I have to pick which quarterback is more likely to lead his team to a 4th quarter win, I've gotta say Eli. Giants 31-27.


Go Lions.

Week 16 Picks

this week:
9-6-1 against the spread
9-7 straight up

season:
125-106-9 ATS (54.1%)
160-80 SU (66.6%)

Lions clinched the freaking playoffs!

Texans (10-4) @ Colts (1-13) - Thursday
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 5.5

This line is a solid 4 points lower than where it should be, thanks to the Colts unexpected win last week against Tennessee. Now it's all the rage to talk about the Colts possibly losing the #1 pick to St. Louis. It sounds cool, but if you do the number-crunching it's actually pretty much impossible. In order for that to happen, the Colts would have to win not only this game, but the next game as well. That would be an 0-13 team winning 3 straight with Dan Orlovsky. Really??

What the guys at ESPN don't want to mention is that in the event of a three-way tie at 2-14, Indy would hold the tie-breaker over St. Louis and Minnesota (strength of schedule), and would get the #1 pick regardless. So unless Indy actually somehow wins this game, let's put off the talk about the Rams deciding whether to draft Luck.

Despite the trend of home teams dominating on Thursdays, I think Houston is going to bounce back with a vengeance. Their defense is way better than people realize. And Indy isn't going to get another fluky 80 yard run from Donald Brown. I'll take the Texans by 14.

Lions (9-5) @ Chargers (7-7) - 4:15pm
Predicted Line: DET by 2.5
Actual Line: DET by 2.5

Let's just jump right into it. I have absolutely no confidence in this game, having watched Phillip Rivers destroy the Ravens D last week. He's playing incredibly right now, with a QB rating of 132 over the last 3 weeks. That's 7 TDs, 0 picks, a 75% completion percentage, and one of those games was against the league's best defense. With the way Detroit's defense looked last week, overpursuing and missing tackles and giving up big plays to chumps like Marcel Reese and Darius Heyward-Bey, I don't have any idea how we'll stop Rivers and Vincent Jackson and Gates and Floyd. On top of that, Gunther Cunningham's decision to employ the increasingly popular but never effective 'wide nine' is completely insane, because our pass rush hasn't actually improved, but now teams are running the ball all over us with ease.

Hopefully Stafford and Calvin can pull off another miracle comeback, but I don't have good feelings about this one. San Diego is probably the one team I least want to play against this week. I'm going to have to say Bolts win 33-26.

So with that, let's look at the Lions' playoff chances. First off, I'm going to assume we lose week 17 in Lambeau, just to make this simpler.

-Atlanta could also lose 2 straight and be 9-7, but they beat us head-to-head, so they own that tiebreaker.

-Chicago could win two straight and also be 9-7; the head-to-head is a tie, but then Chicago wins the divisional record tiebreaker.

-In the NFC East, a 9-7 split between Dallas and the Giants is possible, in which case New York has the tiebreaker over Dallas and forces Dallas to be the Wildcard option, and we beat Dallas head-to-head so we own that tiebreaker.

-In the NFC West, Arizona or Seattle could finish 9-7, but not both because they play each other week 17. If Arizona did, we'd own the tiebreaker for record against common opponents; if Seattle did, they'd beat us for strength of victory tiebreaker.

So, even if the Lions lose 2 straight, the only way we could NOT make the playoffs would be if either Chicago or Seattle won their last two games. At least I'm pretty sure that's how it works.

But THEN ... there are some three-team tiebreakers in case Detroit is tied with two teams at 9-7, and in those scenarios, we lose to Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, and Seattle, but beat Arizona. So, we could potentially be screwed if that happens.

So we need Chicago, Seattle, Arizona, Dallas and the Giants to all lose, just to be safe.

Giants (7-7) @ Jets (8-6)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: NYJ by 3

Two bumbling, perennially-disappointing franchises with mistake-prone QBs and surprisingly leaky defenses. Both have their share of elite players on both sides of the ball, but both make too many mistakes and play too inconsistently to be anything other than first-round fodder. This game is huge for both teams, and really for the entire league. Despite Rex Ryan's trash talk tirade, I see the Giants as the better team, with the better coach and the significantly better quarterback. Sure, Revis will shut down Nicks and the Giants are really struggling to stop the run ... but I just don't feel good about Mark Sanchez giving 3 points on a neutral-field to a good team. I'll take Giants by 3.

Vikings (2-12) @ Redskins (5-9)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 6.5

With Peterson finally healthy, the Vikings are poised to win this game big. Washington's only perceivable strength is the pass rush, and a great pass rush is neutralized by a great running back. Ponder has been struggling lately, but this is his game to get back on track against 8-in-the-box. Rex Grossman should be able to score some points on the awful Vikings back seven, but I expect the Vikings to grind it out, dominate time of possession, and win easily, 26-16.

Bucs (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9)
Predicted Line: CAR by 5
Actual Line: CAR by 7.5

Remember when the Bucs upset the Saints to move into a tie atop the division at 4-2? Yikes. They have since managed to lose 8 straight games, none of which has been closer than 6 points. Other than Gerald McCoy, the Bucs haven't really lost any key players to injuries, so it's safe to say they really are as bad as their record indicates. Raheem Morris went from a rising star to a guy who could be coordinating in the NCAA soon.

The Panthers are headed in the other direction. This is a lot of points, but I just don't see Tampa putting forth much effort this late in the season. I'll say Panthers by at least 14.

Rams (2-12) @ Steelers (10-4)
Predicted Line: PIT by 13.5 (Roethlisberger might not play)
Actual Line: None

The line was set at 16.5 for a couple days, but then removed. I'm going to use that line, because my hunch is that Ben will play, not because the Steelers need him to beat the Rams, but because they want to enter the playoffs playing their best, not limping. With Kellen Clemens starting for the Rams, it sure makes sense to take the favorites and the large spread. But the Steelers are 0-4 trying to cover huge spreads this year; the reality is, they just don't have a killer offense and the defense is a slower, older version of its prior self, and with more holes. Plus, their best O-lineman is out. So I'll take the points. Why not. Pittsburgh 27-13.

Raiders (7-7) @ Chiefs (6-8)
Predicted Line: KC by 2.5
Actual Line: KC by 2.5

Oakland should be demoralized after that home loss to Detroit, while KC is coming off a thrilling win against the 13-0 Packers. The Chiefs love playing for Romeo Crennel (or are they just happy that they don't have to play for Todd Haley anymore?), and Kyle Orton executed a wonderful "Eff you" to the entire league last week. It should continue. Chiefs 23-20. KC still alive for the division if Denver loses ...

Broncos (8-6) @ Bills (5-9)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3.5
Actual Line: DEN by 3

I actually want to bet on a push, because the chances of Denver winning by 3 are more likely than any other result. But I guess I'll take the points and say Tebow wins by 2.

Jags (4-10) @ Titans (7-7)
Predicted Line: TEN by 6.5
Actual Line: TEN by 7

Gonna take the points and say Titans by 3.

Cardinals (7-7) @ Bengals (8-6)
Predicted Line: CIN by 3
Actual Line: CIN by 4

This should be another good game and I'll take the points. In fact, I'm gonna take the Cards straight up. Cincy hasn't beat a decent team in like 6 weeks, and the best team they've beat this year was probably Tennessee. The Cardinals have beat San Fran, Dallas, Philly, Carolina .... So I'll take Arizona by 3.

Wait, John Skelton on the road? ... Bah, never mind, I'll go Bengals by 3.

Dolphins (5-9) @ Pats (11-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 10.5
Actual Line: NE by 9.5

With the Pats' terrible defense and the inspired play of Matt Moore, I'll take the points and say New England by just 7.

Browns (4-10) @ Ravens (10-4)
Predicted Line: BAL by 12.5
Actual Line: BAL by 12.5

So far I've taken 8 underdogs and only 3 favorites; I actually have 5 underdogs winning straight up. I'm hesitatant to take the points again, but I always like fiesty, scrambly back-up QBs to cover big spreads. Seneca Wallace is a fiend. Ravens by 6.

49ers (11-3) @ Seahawks (7-7)
Predicted Line: SF by 2.5
Actual Line: SF by 2

It would be great for Detroit if the Niners win and terminate Seattle's playoff chances. However if the Lions are going to win one of their next two games and clinch a playoff spot, I'd rather see the Niners lose, because the thought of playing Drew Brees in the first round of the playoffs makes me want to eat tin foil.

Regardless of what I want to happen, San Fran's great front 7 is going up against one of the hottest running backs in Marshawn Lynch, and playing in always-crazy Seattle (formerly Qwest Field, now called CenturyOne or something). And don't look now, but Tarvaris Jackson has put together 3 straight solid games, winning by scores of 31-14, 30-13, and 38-14.

I'm not suggesting the Niners will overlook the Seahawks the way they overlooked the Cardinals two weeks ago and lost. I simply think Seattle can beat anybody at home, so I'll take the underdog yet again, 23-20.

Eagles (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 1.5

Lots of entangling playoff situations ... but the simple version is: Philly needs to win to stay alive, whereas Dallas needs to win next week to have a chance, and this game is pretty much meaningless for them.

The Giants play the early game, and if they win, the Eagles are out, but if they lose, the Cowboys need to win this game to lock up the playoffs, otherwise next week's NYG-DAL game would determine the division winner, unless Philly wins next week against the Jets, in which case Philly wins the division. So in other words, both teams need to win this game, but both teams will be eagerly watching the Giants game too.

I'm not a big fan of Vick this year, especially on the road, so I'll take the home team who is strangely favored by only 1.5. How about Cowboys 33-30.

Bears (7-7) @ Packers (13-1)
Predicted Line: GB by 9.5
Actual Line: GB by 13

Josh McCown will reportedly start for Chicago instead of Caleb Hanie. It's tempting to think Green Bay will be in trouble after the "blueprint to beat Rodgers" was discovered, plus the injuries to Jennings, Nick Collins, and two offensive lineman ... but come on, Josh McCown against Aaron Rodgers, in Lambeau? Pack by 10.

Falcons (9-5) @ Saints (11-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 7
Actual Line: NO by 6.5

The Saints are way too hot for me to pick against them right now. Brees needs 306 yards to break the single-season yardage record, and he'll do that in this game. New Orleans 34-24.



Go Lions!

NBA Preview: Haves and Have-nots

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this, because I'm not sure anybody cares. But I care enough to at least get some predictions written down. Let's start in the Eastern Conference. Remember, it's a 66-game season, crammed into 120 days.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat - They still have big fat nothings from the point guard and center positions, but the addition of Shane Battier is exactly what Miami needed: an unselfish hustle player, an elite defender, and a solid outside shooter. With LBJ and Wade sharing the ball and attacking the rim, the Heat have just enough shooters (Chalmers, Bosh, Battier, James Jones) to take full advantage. Defensively, they'll probably be the NBA's best team.

Potential downfall: aside from LeBron's manic desire to be loved which somehow caused him to be hated, and LeBron's allergicness to fourth quarters, there is still the tumultuous head coaching situation. Erik Spoelstra is in way over his head and all his players know it. But I still have the Heat going 53-13 for the #1 seed.

Chicago Bulls - Led by MVP Derrick Rose, last year's #1 seed was ousted from the Eastern Conference Finals in 5 relatively easy games by the Heat. Instead of making a big move for Dwight Howard or Tyson Chandler, the Bulls picked up past-his-prime Rip Hamilton, and not much else. They don't get any scoring from the center or the 2-guard, and we can't expect much from Boozer anymore either.

Cakewalk: last year the Bulls won the Central Division by 25 games. It's the least competitive division in basketball or any sport for that matter. So they can suffer lots of injuries, all shoot left-handed for the entire month of February, let Rose skip 15 games to sail around the world, whatever they want, and they'll still win the division easily. I'll say 46-20, which barely earns them the #2 seed.

New York Knicks - Other than Chris Paul to the Clippers, the Knicks pulled off the biggest move of the offseason so far, obtaining Tyson Chandler in free agency, outbidding at least 10 other teams who wanted him. Chandler gives the Knicks exactly what they needed: defense. With Melo, Amare and Chandler the Knicks have by the far the league's best frontcourt, and all they need is for the guards (Baron Davis, Mike Bibby, rookie Iman Shumpert) to not mess things up.

Do they have what it takes to beat the Heat? That will be the question of the year for the entire league, but the Knicks may be the best-suited to upset Miami in the playoffs. Miami is too small to guard New York's bigs. If Amare replicates the amazing season he had last year (25 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 blocks), New York will stand the best chance of keeping Miami out of the Finals. Regular season record: 45-21.

Boston Celtics - This is where it gets ugly. The NBA this season, especially in the East, is all about disparity. The three top teams (all located in marquee cities, not coincidentally) are loaded with superstars, depth, defense ... while the rest of the conference is inferior and uncompetitive, and they know it. David Stern has tried to emulate the NFL and become a parity-driven league, but he's also tried to maximize revenue and load the big cities with big stars and make the NBA internationally popular. Unfortunately, you can't succeed at both.

Boston's "Big Three" is now a thing of the past, as Rajon Rondo is their best player by a wide margin. Rondo was dangled in trade rumors for months and is now disgruntled, and the losses of Perkins and Glen Davis have depleted Boston's depth in the paint. Jeff Green hasn't panned out, Jermaine O'Neal is awful, and the formerly great trio now averages 35 years of age.

One More Shot: Does the Celtics aged roster have enough in the tank for one last hurrah? Or will they start out slow and overreact by dealing Allen and/or Rondo to a contender for future picks and young players? I think the latter will happen, and the Celts will still manage to finish 40-26 for the #4 seed.

Atlanta Hawks - The Hawks continue their quest to finish with the 5th seed as many times as possible in a single decade. Good enough to always make the playoffs, never good enough to sniff a Conference Finals. By locking their lynchpin players (Johnson, Smith, Horford) down for long-deals, they'll be in the middle of the playoff pack once again. Adding Tracy McGrady and losing Jamal Crawford drops them a step backward. 39-27 gives them a 59% winning percentage, right on pace with the past several years.

Any Chance: could this be the year that Atlanta finally makes a leap into serious title contention? Uh ... nope...

Orlando Magic - The big enigma for obvious reasons. Dwight Howard could be traded before I finish this sentence, or he could retire as a member of the Magic in 10 years. Most likely, he'll play at least some games for Orlando this year, maybe in a hostage-esque situation like Carmelo last year. (You know I'm leaving, so you may as well try to get some value for me). Orlando is committed to dumping Hedo Turkoglu's contract to whoever takes Howard, which makes him considerably less attractive. The Lakers, Nets, Bulls, Mavericks, Rockets ... heck pretty much every team is a factor. But Dwight wants to be in a big market, so it'll probably be either New Jersey or LA or maybe Chicago if he wants to take less money and win titles.

Life Without Dwight: Orlando will be looking to add at least 3 or 4 first-round picks for Howard as well as create some serious cap space and add a couple young building blocks. He's the best center in the NBA by a mile and could end up with a career in the Hakeem-Shaq echelon. With Jameer, J-Rich, Big Baby and Ryan Anderson, the Magic should be able to make the playoffs even without Howard. The East is a very sad conference. I'll say 36-30 for the Magic, with Howard playing in the first 10ish games.

New Jersey - Moving to Brooklyn. Owned by a Russian billionaire who apsires to be President of Russia. Part-owned by Jay Z. Superstar point guard in Deron Williams. New arena, excited new fans. Aaaand ... Brook Lopez is their second best player. Ugh.

The Nets have everything in place to be an elite franchise, except for the players. They missed out on Wade, LeBron and Carmelo. They pulled off a nice trade for D-Williams, who then left for Turkey, but came back. But now the Nets need to pry Dwight Howard from Orlando somehow, otherwise they're never getting past the first round. I'm going to say they go 35-31 for the 7th seed. Unless they get Dwight early in the season, in which case they'll finish 3rd or 4th and be a scary playoff matchup.

*

From here on out, there is a list of 8 teams that absolutely do not deserve to be in the playoffs. It's really just a fight for which of these 8 doldrums gets to be swept by the Heat. This is why the title of this blog is 'Haves and Have-nots.'

Milwaukee, Indiana, Washington and Philly are the only teams that seem to be building towards anything remotely promising; of those, John Wall could make a superstar leap and bring Washington into relevancy.

Cleveland, Toronto, Charlotte, and Detroit are just completely worthless, and will be going through the motions as bottom dwellars. It's amazing to think that just 6 years ago, one of those teams went to consecutive NBA Finals and had the best starting 5 in basketball. I have all of these teams 15 games below .500, and it doesn't make any difference who finishes with what record because of the stupid ping-pong ball lottery. But for the record, Detroit will finish the year with the worst record in the NBA, 11-55.

Western Conference

So much for keeping this short. How about this:

1 seed - Dallas
2 seed - Clippers
3 seed - OKC
4 seed - Memphis
5 seed - Lakers
6 seed - Spurs
7 seed - Nuggets
8 seed - Blazers

Playoffs ... blah blah blah, Chris Paul alley-oop to Blake Griffin, Spurs are dead, Kobe is pissed, Heat over OKC in 6. Good for you LeBron, you a-hole.