Monday, November 1, 2010

Guessing the Week 9 Lines

Tampa (5-2) @ Atlanta (5-2)
Battle for NFC South supremacy and the fast-track to the playoffs. Tampa is coming off two close wins, while Atlanta is coming off a bye. Tough to beat Matt Ryan in the Georgia dome. I doubt if Vegas is taking Tampa seriously yet.
Predicted Line: ATL by 6.5

Chicago (4-3) vs Buffalo (0-7) in Toronto
Futuristically speaking, this is a home game for Buffalo, since they'll be the Toronto Tigers in a matter of years. Can't imagine Chicago getting much more than 4 points considering that the Bills are coming off back-to-back overtime loses against 5-2 teams.
Predicted Line: CHI by 4.5

New England (6-1) @ Cleveland (2-5)
Patriots are the only one-loss team remaining, and have a seemingly cake matchup against a perennial cellar dweller. But Cleveland just beat the Saints and then took a week to rest, so this line shouldn't be out of hand.
Predicted Line: NE by 5.5

NY Jets (5-2) @ Detroit (2-5)
For some strange reason the oddsmakers love Detroit, so I think this line is within 5 when it should be closer to 8. Not feeling good about this one ... although Revis against Megatron will be amazing to watch.
Predicted Line: NYJ by 4

New Orleans (5-3) @ Carolina (1-6)
This tests the limits of how highly a road team can be favored. Despite the 5-3 record and recent loss to Cleveland, the Saints should be favored by at least a touchdown. And most of the action will be on the road team.
Predicted Line: NO by 7.5

Miami (4-3) @ Baltimore (5-2)
Whenever a pretty good team plays against a really good team and the really good team is home, you can bet the line will be between 4 and 6. In this case, I think the rested Ravens give at least 5 points.
Predicted Line: BAL by 5.5

San Diego (3-5) @ Houston (4-2*)
*Monday nighter pending.
Assuming the Colts win and Houston is 4-3, this should be a pretty low line. San Diego may be just 3-5 but people aren't stupid. Rivers is on pace to shatter Marino's single-season yards record.
Predicted Line: HOU by 3.5

Arizona (3-4) @ Minnesota (2-5)
Despite the awful record and the weekly Favre-drama, the oddsmakers will be smart enough to make this a touchdown spread. Arizona deserves no respect. Even with Tavaris Jackson this will be a line of 6 or higher.
Predicted Line: MIN by 6.5

NY Giants (5-2) @ Seattle (4-3)
New York is rested, while Seattle just got beat by 30 at Oakland. But Seattle is a different team at home. This is a typical 'Vegas Has No Idea What To Do Game.' I guess the safe line is 3.
Predicted Line: NYG by 3

Indianapolis (4-2*) @ Philadelphia (4-3)
*Monday nighter pending.
Unless Peyton gets injured, you can bet on the Colts being favored. They're always favored. But with Vick healthy and rested (and we know how betters LOVE to bet on Michael Vick), this line will be quite low.
Predicted Line: IND by 2

Kansas City (5-2) @ Oakland (4-4)
I don't know what's more surprising: that these teams are a combined 9-6, or that I'm unbelievably excited for this game. Honestly, I can't wait to see who wins between the Chiefs and the Raiders. This looks like a perfect situation for a pick 'em.
Predicted Line: Pick Em

Dallas (1-6) @ Green Bay (5-3)
Eventually, the Cowboys will start winning. No team that talented can lose more than 10 games. It's inconceivable. But the Packers just blanked the supposedly unstoppable Jets, and Romo is still out, and the Cowboys seem as uninspired as collectively possible. So this line might approach double digits.
Predicted Line: GB by 9

Pittsburgh (5-2) @ Cincinnati (2-6)
It took eight weeks, but people finally realize how bad Carson Palmer is, and this line will finally reflect that reality. Despite losing to the Saints, nobody's going to make the mistake of disrespecting the Steelers. This marks the 5th road team that'll be favored by 4 or more. Watch out.
Predicted Line: PIT by 5

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