Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Week 10 Wrap Up & Week 11 Picks

What a weird week.

The Patriots dismantled the Steelers unstoppable defense; the Cowboys beat the spread by 26 points against NYG; and Chicago effectively ended the Vikings' season with a 27-13 rout in which the Bears ran the ball 38 times and nobody from Minnesota was involved in any scandals of revenge, sex or anarchy. Oh, and let's not forget the pathetic Lions, who mustered only 12 points against the Bills horrendous defense and made Fred Jackson look like a young Thurman Thomas. Then on Monday night, Michael Vick had 27 fantasy points in the first quarter alone.


Then there was Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton combining for 770 yards, 8 TDs and 0 INTs. Three Home Underdogs - Chicago, Miami, and Denver- all won convincingly, and the Browns came dangerously close to being a fourth. Detroit could have been number 5.

But we'll get in to all that, one game at a time.

Let's start with the pathetic 2-7 Detroit Lions.

Buffalo 14, Detroit 12

Here's what I wrote last week:

if they do lose ... well let's just say that Schwartz's job instantly falls into jeopardy, thousands of fans stop watching, the Lions become a laughingstock all over again, half the players get depressed, Calvin Johnson checks out mentally, and it probably sets the Lions' rebuilding process back about 2 seasons. A win means nothing, but a loss would be detrimental. This is the most important game in years.

What else is there to say!!?!? I mean, seriously ... Detroit ran the ball for a measly 76 yards against a defense that allows nearly 190 rushing yards per contest! Either Jahvid Best's turf toe really is a problem, or the guy stinks and is overrated. It's either one or the other, and we better hope to God it's the toe. Shaun Hill threw 50 passes and at least 20 of them were HIDEOUS. Brandon Pettigrew looked like freaking Kwame Brown in a #84 Lions jersey. The only defensive player who seemed to give a crap was freaking Lawerence Jackson who's just trying to keep his job.

But really, this pathetic game come down to one statistic - 11 penalties for the Lions, 4 for the Bills. Detroit dominated in total yards (390 to 290), in time of possession (33 to 27), and had at least the 3 best players on the field (Calvin, Suh, KVB). Honestly, who IS the best player on the Bills roster? I can't even think of one plausible option... maybe Jairus Byrd?? Or maybe Marcus Stroud who was washed up 3 years ago? Maybe Lee Evans???

This loss is absolutely PATHETIC. Just wretched. A complete disgrace. Detroit might have actually had the TEN best players in this game. UGGHHh!!!!!

Okay, let's go back to the 11 penalties for a second.

1st quarter:
FALSE START on Will Heller. Gives Detroit a 1st and 15, leads to a punt.
HOLDING on Rob Sims negates a 7 yard run.
FALSE START on Peterman. Moves us from 2nd and 6 to 2nd and 11, leads to a punt.
ILLEGAL MOTION on Ashlee Palmer on the punt. Gives Buffalo 5 free yards.
NEUTRAL ZONE INFRACTION on Suh. Give Buffalo 1st and 5.
ENCROACHMENT on Corey Williams. Another 1st and 5.

2nd quarter:
HOLDING on Gosder Cherilus. Negates a 3 yard run on 3rd and 2, instead the Lions punt.
HOLDING on Jeff Backus. Gives Detroit a 1st and 20, which leads to a punt.

3rd quarter:
FALSE START on Backus. Moves 3rd and 8 to 3rd and 13, leads to punt.

4th quarter:
FALSE START on Tony Scheffler. First and 15.
FALSE START on Dominic Raiola. Moves Detroit from 4th and 1 to 4th and 6.

That's a whopping 8 penalties on the offensive line plus the tight ends. 2 on defense, 1 on special teams. But EIGHT on the offensive line?? REALLY?? What happens if we DON'T commit a penalty on 3rd and 2, and we gain the 3 yards, and then we're at the Buffalo 40 yard line with a 1st and 10. Worst case scenario, we kick a field goal. That could have easily been the difference in the game. We easily could have, and in fact WOULD have, won this game without the 5 false starts and 3 holdings.

Don't blame the defense. We allowed only 14 points and less than 300 total yards. Fitzpatrick had only 12 completions. The secondary played well (granted, against a historically pathetic offense). I anticipated Steve Johnson having 12 catches for 180 yards and 2 TDs. He only caught 3 balls for 37 yards. I repeat: do not blame the defense.

Blame the offensive line, blame the running backs, blame Shaun Hill, and most of all, blame the coaching staff. Five false start penalties is way beyond unacceptable. Jim Schwartz can say all the right things, wear the hip khakis, cross his arms and scowl like a Hollywood actor trying to portray a hard-nosed coach. But at the end of the day, if his offensive line is committing a false start penalty FIVE times in a game against 0-8 Buffalo, he needs to be seriously evaluated.

Oh and one other guy to blame. Matt Stafford. Stupid jerk.

How about somebody NOT to blame? Let's go with Calvin Johnson. 'Tron put up 10 catches for 128 yards and a score. That's the kind of line that will get you invited to Honolulu. In fact I think Calvin could go ahead and book his Pro Bowl ticket right now. The only only sure bet in the NFC this year is Roddy White. Calvin is in line for the #2 spot. His only other competition is Hakeem Nicks and the two Eagles. No one else is close.

Good thing Calvin's not in the AFC, where Andre, TO, Lloyd, Wayne, Marshall, Bowe and Boldin have turned the WR Pro Bowl race into a freaking dog fight.

One last thought about the Lions: a dreary, what-could-have-been introspection.

First, Detroit should have beat Chicago week one. Everyone knows this. So let's say they're 1-0.

The next 6 games Detroit goes 2-4 like they did. Legit. This was the tough part of the schedule. We're now 3-4. Then the Jets game. If Suh makes an extra point, or if Stanton takes the sack, or if we win the coin toss, we're 4-4.

Then this week, against the 0-8 Bills ... well let's just say we could have easily been 5-4.

Then there's the Cowboys next week, which should have been an easy win against the uninspired idiots, but alas, Dallas just decided to start trying last week, and now we're 10 point underdogs or something in that range. Then we've got New England 4 days later on Thanksgiving. So we'll be 2-9 in the standings. When we could have EASILY been 6-5 after Thanksgiving with 10 days to prepare for a home game against the Bears, meaning we're potentially 7-5 and have a home game with Green Bay, @Tampa Bay, @Miami and at home for the no-longer-trying Vikings remaining on the schedule. A very possible 8-8 or 9-7 year. That means we break the 75 year playoff drought.

Instead, Calvin's catch was ruled a noncatch, Suh missed an extra point, we got 11 penalties, Dallas just started trying one week before their game against Detroit, and we'll finish the season 3-13.


On to the rest of the games ...

Falcons 26, Ravens 21
Matt Ryan won the battle of 3rd year quarterbacks convincingly. If Atlanta gets homefield throughout the playoffs, pencil them into the Super Bowl. Also, I nailed the pick.

Bears 27, Vikings 13
Favre dropped another stinkbomb (18/31, 170 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs and a fumble lost) and was outplayed by Jay effing Cutler. The Vikings are now 3-6, the Bears are 6-3, and if you put a gun to my head and asked Who's more likely to make the playoffs? I'd say Minnesota, and I'd ask you to kindly lower your weapon you spaz.

Jets 26, Browns 20 - OT
My most unlucky pick of the week. Took Cleveland to cover the 3 points, and should have at least got a tie, but the TD in OT with 16 seconds left sunk me. Cleveland played great. Two weeks in a row the Jets got a bogus win. If Peyton Hillis doesn't make the Pro Bowl I'm boycotting.

Colts 23, Cincinnati 17
I went back and forth about whether or not Cincy would pull off the backdoor cover. I picked Indy to cover by 7. They won by 6. It was a total coin flip. Cincy is now 2-7 and still not a word about Palmer being benched or Lewis being fired. How strange.

Dolphins 29, Titans 17
This might have been my dumbest pick of the week. Why did I pick the team with cancerous Randy Moss and an injured QB to win by 2 on the road against the need-to-win Fins? Stupid, stupid, stupid. Bad news though for Miami - it looks like Jake Long is hurt for next week, maybe longer. And generally speaking, when you lose your best player, it's bad news.

Bucs 31, Panthers 16
I thought the 7 point line was too high, but I underestimated the futility of the Carolina offense. Claussen and Co. moved the ball relatively well, but they kicked 3 field goals when they got close. Tampa is good enough to kill bad teams, but I think they're still a year away from contending with playoff teams.

Jags 31, Texans 24
Bah. I picked Houston and might have got the pick right if not for a stupid hailmary. Nothing worse than losing your pick on a hailmary.

Broncos 49, Chiefs 29
Last week I wrote this: Isn't Kyle Orton due for another 400 yard, 3 TD game.
Instead Orton had 300 yards and 4 TDs. I guess I switched the 3s and the 4s. Oops. But either way, I nailed the Upset.

Cowboys 33, Giants 20
All the Cowboys need to do is fire their coach every week and maybe they'll play inspired. But seriously - Dez Bryant moved past Best and Matthews for ROY and is now breathing down Bradford's neck. He had 104 receiving yards and a TD, plus 86 return yards. As we saw last year with Harvin, a WR/KR/PR can win rookie of the year.

Seahawks 36, Cardinals 18
In two games against the Cardinals, Mike Williams has 22 catches for 232 yards. If he could just play them every week, he'd put up 176 catches and 1,850 yards and rewrite the record books. But alas, the NFC West is still putrid and Arizona just lost their 4th game in a row.

49ers 23, Rams 20 - OT
This was St. Louis's chance to claim the NFC West as their division to lose. But I guess they're not ready yet. Defensively they let Troy Smith look like an old Randall Cunningham. But this loss cannot be pinned on Sam Bradford - dude completed 30 of 42 passes for 250 yards and no picks. If you throw 42 passes without an INT, that's solid. Rams covered the spread at least, so I got the Lock.

Patriots 39, Steelers 26
Vintage Tom Brady. He beat the snot out of the league's best defense. I watched this entire game from start to finish and didn't even see Troy Polamalu on the TV screen more than 8 times. Which means two things:
1) Troy wasn't aggressive enough
2) Tom avoided him at all costs
Even run plays were designed to go away from Polamalu. New England and their brilliant coach exposed Pittsburgh only weakness: their defense, without Troy, stinks. Oh, and their other weakness - the offensive line is terrible. Other than those two things, the Steelers are a Super Bowl team. But those two things are pretty important.

Eagles 59, Washington 28
Philly was only favored by 3, which is hilarious. I wrote that they should have been favored by 7. Maybe instead they should have been favored by 27. They still would have beat the spread.
Hours after Donovan McNabb was awarded one of the most puzzling contract extensions in NFL history (5 years, $78 million despite playing the worst season of his career and being benched 2 weeks ago for Rex Grossma), Michael Vick upstaged McNabb by playing quite literally one of the best games in NFL history with 20/28 passing for 333 yards and 4 TDs while also running for 80 yards and 2 more TDs. It's tough to do that even in Madden. Amazing. And simultaneously awful, since Michael Vick is a villain and now we are celebrating him. If he wins league MVP I might light my hair on fire.

Week 10 Picks: 8-6
Upset of the Week: 2-0 (I accidentally picked two)
Lock of the Week: 1-0
Lions Pick: 1-0

Overall: 77-63-4
Upset: 7-4
Lock: 6-4-1
Lions: 4-5

Let's check out the week 11 picks.

Chicago (6-3) @ Miami (5-4) - Thursday
Predicted Line: MIA by 1
Actual Line: MIA by 1.5

If there was ever a week Miami needed Jake Long, it's this week against Julius Peppers. But it looks like Long is out, which means they'll slide RT Vernon Carey over to the left side, and that'll probably result in pressure coming from both sides. It's gonna be a tough week to be without their Pro Bowl left tackle. Especially considering that both Chads (Henne & Pennington) will be unavailable and Tyler Thigpen has to start. But, it's worth noting that Thigpen is a scrambler and pressure in the pocket might be better suited for him than for either Chad. So who knows, maybe Thigpen will run 15 times for 100 yards.

We saw last week that defenses struggle on 4 days rest. Especially when they have to travel. In fact it's probably safe to pick all the home teams on Thursdays from here on out. Especially when the other team has Jay Cutler, who is due for a massively sucky outing. Look for underrated OLB Cameron Wake to have 2 or 3 sacks and force a fumble, and lead Miami to a surprising blowout victory. They need this game so much more than Chicago does and I think they'll play accordingly.

Buffalo (1-7) @ Cincinnati (2-8)
Predicted Line: CIN by 6.5
Actual Line: CIN by 5.5

I don't feel great about backing either team, but think I'll go with Cincy.

Detroit (2-7) @ Dallas (2-7)
Predicted Line: DAL by 5.5
Actual Line: DAL by 6.5

I don't know. I suck at picking the Lions' games. I pick against them when they're underdogs and they cover. I pick against them when they're favorites and they win. Maybe I need to just start picking for them every week? I mean, Detroit is a league-best 7-2 against the spread, believe it or not.

So this week ... we face off against the Jon Kitna & Roy Williams Super Duo of Vengeance. Although the 4 guys I'm most worried about are Miles Austin, Felix Jones, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant, in that order. I just don't see how Detroit has the defense to hang with all those weapons. We can't double team Austin, but if we leave him man-covered against Chris Houston that's bad news. If we try to shade Austin with a safety, that leaves Witten over the middle and opens up Felix Jones in the running game. No matter what we do, Bryant is single-covered by Alphonso Smith. Then there's Roy Williams against our nickel back, Nathan Vasher. Yikes. Yikes all the way around.

Really, our defense only has one hope, and that is of course Suh and the D-line. Dallas has an offensive line of big talented dummies. They've allowed 17 sacks and they have almost as many offensive penalties as Detroit does. (Detroit has 88, Dallas has 67, both rank in the top 5).

We've got mismatches up front, especially with Suh who will once again be double teamed. If we expose those mismatches and blitz effectively, we can put pressure on Jon Kitna, and we know how that works out. Forced throws into double coverage. Checkdowns on 3rd and long. Throwing the ball out of bounds. Scrambling blindly. Sheer panic and desperation. Kitna is a warrior and a fierce competitor, but unfortunately (or fortunately, now that he's our opponent) he panics under pressure and overreacts. Our only hope defensively is putting pressure on him early and often. Cunningham better have some stellar blitz packages ready for those big 3rd downs.

When Detroit has the ball ... it'll be interesting to see if we can take advantage of Dallas's lazy corners and 21st ranked pass defense. They rank 23th in total defense and 30th in points allowed. They suck in the secondary, and they don't have a prayer of covering Calvin Johnson even if they quadruple team him.

However, as I wrote last week, the loss to Buffalo and subsequent 2-7 record probably took the wind out of Calvin's sails more than any other player. He's done the same routine in the past: try hard until the season is effectively over, and then suddenly turn into a more fragile version of Randy Moss. I hope Calvin at least hangs on and keeps his Pro Bowl season going, but right now I think his only true motivation is to play for a big contract on a different team. It kills me to say that, but I think it's true.

And let's face it ... without Calvin Johnson, our offense is anemic at best. The running game is going nowhere against Jat Ratliff and the underrated Dallas linebackers. Jeff Backus has the worst matchup possible with DeMarcus Ware. Shaun Hill is going to be running for his life.

Everyone talks about how unfocused and stupid Dallas is, but believe it or not their defense is actually the least penalized defense in the NFL in terms of total penalities AND total yards. They've still got a stellar run defense (4.3 YPC, only 6 TDs allowed all year) and let's not forget they have a top 10 overall NFL player at outside linebacker. This matchup (Ware against Backus) is an absolute nightmare to gameplan against.

If we don't use tight ends and running backs to block Ware, then Shaun Hill is a dead man and Drew Stanton will see the field by halftime.

This game probably comes down to Calvin Johnson and how he dictates Dallas's defense. If they double team him regularly it might allow Detroit to run and throw short passes and move the chains. If Calvin struggles (he's been sitting out this week with a knee injury but will play Sunday), the entire offense will stand still.

Speaking of injuries, Jason Hanson will miss another game, as will defensive end Cliff Avril, which means more snaps for Turk McBride and Lawerence Jackson. We also know Kevin Smith is out and Jahvid Best is missing practice because of the lingering turf toe injury. Don't be surprised if fullback Jerome Felton has 5 or 10 carries, especially since he can help block Ware if needed.

Okay, enough talk. Let's just get to the pick and move on. I'm going with Detroit to cover. I think 6.5 is too many points for Jon Kitna to be giving, and Detroit has showed an incredible ability to keep games entertaining down to the end. Probably another devestating close loss. Maybe a Lions win. But it should be less than a blowout. I'm taking the Lions and the points.

Oakland (5-4) @ Pittsburgh (6-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6.5
Actual Line: PIT by 7.5

Last season, Oakland went into Heinz Field as 15 point underdogs and won by 3. As a direct result, Pittsburgh missed the playoffs. One of my favorite games of the decade.

But that was a different Pittsburgh team, and a different Oakland team as well. That was Pittsburgh without their best player, and a classic example of how bad the Steeler defense is without Troy. They gave up 308 passing yards and a 122 QB Rating to Bruce Gradkowski. You think Polamalu is going to let that happen. No chance.

This year, Pittsburgh will remember that game and be out for revenge. But unfortunately for them, Oakland is no longer a joke. They're playing insane right now, winning 3 straight by an average of 3 touchdowns. Darren McFadden is probably a top 10 running back right now and steadily moving up. And they've had a bye week to prepare for the league's best defense.

Both teams really want this game. Oakland wants to prove they're for real; Pittsburgh doesn't want to lose 2 straight and fall behind Baltimore. It's going to be hard-fought and probably closer than 8. Especially given the 3 injured starters on Pittsburgh's offensive line, and the fact that Oakland (27 sacks, 3rd in the NFL) can get after the quarterback. Richard Seymour is licking his chops. I'm not sure what the phrase means. But something like that.

I'll take Oakland and the points.

Houston (4-5) @ NY Jets (7-2)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 6.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 7

Houston has lost 3 straight, and their next 4 games are Tennessee, @Philly, Baltimore, and @Tennessee. They might actually go 5-11 after starting 4-2. Yikes.

But let's not rule them out of this game. Houston's glaring weakness is the secondary, and they get a break this week against the league's least accurate passer in Mark Sanchez. Literally, his completion percentage is just 54.7%. But Sanchez has a knack for the big play, and Santonio Holmes seems to be heating up, and Houston's secondary can't stop ANY BO DY. So the only way Houston stays in this game is if they, uh, score a bunch of points. Good thing I'm here for stunning analysis like that.

So how do Matt Schaub and Arian Foster stack up against Rex Ryan's blitz monsters?

Well, the biggest issue is Schaub's bursa sac in his knee. Whatever a bursa sac is, I'm not sure, but Schaub's is bursted and that sounds like bad news. He missed practice Wednesday and is questionable. If Dan Orlovsky starts instead, I'll be taking the Jets + 7. But my gut says Schaub will play because this game is a must-win for them.

Andre Johnson is also ailing, with an ankle injury keeping him off the practice field and also deemed as questionable. But that's probably just a precaution. There's no way Andre is going to miss his chance at Darelle Revis. Best WR against the best CB. It doesn't get any better.

The key to this game is Arian Foster. How can he do against New York's 5th rank rush defense? Foster rushes for 5.3 YPC and the Jets allow an average of 3.4. Whichever number is closer to reality will determine the winner of this game. And since I'm a big time Jets hater and a big time Texans love, it's a foregone conclussion that I'm taking Houston.

Baltimore (6-3) @ Carolina (1-8)
Predicted Line: BAL by 10.5
Actual Line: BAL by 10

The first line I guessed was BAL by 7.5, but then I remembered that Matt Moore is out for the year and Jimmy Claussen sucks. Carolina is starting Brian St. Pierre. No seriously, they really are. Check it out. Last week, St. Pierre was a stay-at-home dad. Then Claussen got a concussion, so the Panthers called him up. He joined the practice squad, then the 53 man roster, and now he is starting for Carolina against a defense with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Haloti Ngata, 3 of the 10 best defensive players in the NFL. This game should be hilarious. I'll pick Baltimore to win by at least 30 and I'll make it the Lock of the Week.

Cleveland (3-6) @ Jacksonville (5-4)
Predicted Line: JAC by 3.5
Actual Line: JAC by 1.5

Wow... I almost guessed the other way and said Jags by 5. Can't believe this line is so low.

However, I'm taking the Browns straight up. They've got the better team and they're playing better football by far. They're also playing with a lot more confidence, and home field advantage probably means less to the Jaguars than any other team. I'm not even sure if they have fans. I'll take Cleveland as my Upset of the Week. My man crush on Peyton Hillis knows no bounds.

Washington (4-5) @ Tennessee (5-4)
Predicted Line: TEN by 5.5
Actual Line: TEN by 7

Both secondaries stink (Titans ranked 25th, Skins ranked 31st) so both teams should be able to pass. The difference is of course Chris Johnson. He'll command 8 in the box as always and as a result Washington's defense will be ripped to shreds. I'd guess 40+ points for the Titans.

Washington has no running game, because Mike Shanahan can't keep a consistent running back for more than 3 weeks without changing his mind. He never could at Denver either. This week he'll go back to Ryan Torain but with a dash of Keiland Williams. Remember during the preseason when Washington had Portis, Parker and LJ? How'd that work out?

Tennessee just has a much better team. They'll dominate in this game. I really like this pick. Though I'd feel more comfortable if the line was a few points lower just in case. On a related note, I'm starting Randy Moss one last time in the A League. If he can't produce against the 31st ranked pass defense, he's done. I'll drop him if he has less than 50 yards. Go Titans!

Arizona (3-6) @ Kansas City (5-4)
Predicted Line: KC by 7.5
Actual Line: KC by 8

The Chiefs are the Buccaneers of the AFC. They can destroy bad teams, but they can't beat good teams. I think they'll win this game easily. I'll take them +8.

Green Bay (6-3) @ Minnesota (3-6)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 3

Hmmm ... I can't think of one interesting thing to say about this game. Guess I'll pick the Packers.

Atlanta (7-2) @ St. Louis (4-5)
Predicted Line: ATL by 3.5
Actual Line: ATL by 3

I'd just like to point out that I've guessed all the lines so far within 2 points. Now if I can just get the picks right.

If I gave you 10 guesses to this question - Which team leads the NFL in sacks? - would you have picked the Rams? Even with 20 guesses? I probably wouldn't have. But it's true. They also have the 12st best defense in terms of yards and 6th best in terms of scoring. If you take out that 44-6 blowout win in Detroit, St. Louis gives up an average of 15 points per game. Granted, they haven't played a single good offense this year except San Diego, but still. The effects of defensive mastermind Steve Spagnuolo are slowly but surely sinking in. St. Louis is rebuiling nicely.

That said, I don't think they can hang with an elite offense like Atlanta. Matt Ryan is an A+ quarterback indoors, and a C+ QB outside. This game is inside. I like Atlanta.

Seattle (5-4) @ New Orleans (6-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 11.5
Actual Line: NO by 12

Seattle sucks and the Saints are great , so this game is an easy call: New Orleans wins.

Oh yeah, the dang 12 point spread ... I think I'll take Seattle. We've seen time and time again that Sean Peyton doesn't like to run up the score. They'll win easily, but probably by 10 or 7. Seattle gets a garbage TD late and covers the spread.

Tampa Bay (6-3) @ San Francisco (3-6)
Predicted Line: SF by 4.5
Actual Line: SF by 3.5

It's inexplicable, but every week San Fran gets about 5 points more than they should. Maybe it's because Vegas is close to California? Maybe it's because the Niners were great in the 90s? I have no idea. But I guessed this line intentionally stupidly and ended up being close.

Just like last week, I think San Fran will win, but I hate this line. I'll go with Tampa since they're clearly the better team and they're getting 3 points. But it's a tough call: the Bucs are 5-26 on the west coast since 1976, and Tampa's 32nd rank rushing defense now gets Frank Gore after giving up 100 yards to Mike Goodson last week. On second though, I'll take the Niners. No wait, I'll take Tampa, because I just unashamedly love Josh Freeman. Dangit I don't know!!

Final pick: Tma.pps .aSasnuhhh San Fran. No Tampa. Definitely Tampa.

Indy (6-3) @ New England (7-2)
Predicted Line: Pats by 3.
Actual Line: Pats by 4.

Last time these teams played, it was in Indy and Bellichick went for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28 with 2 minutes remaining. Remember that? The Colts ended up winning. That game couldn't have been any more awesome.

So I clearly have no idea who to pick this week. It's like picking between Magic and Bird. Either guy could win. When in doubt ... take the points? Or take the home team? Ummm ...

I guess I'll take the points. Go Indy!

NY Giants (6-3) @ Philly (6-3)
Predicted Line: PHI by 4.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3

Until I see Michael Vick play like a human and not like a mythological demigod, I will be picking the Eagles. This line is atrocious. No wonder 87% of the public is taking Philly.

Denver (3-6) @ San Diego (4-5)
Predicted Line: SD by 9.5
Actual Line: SD by 10

I definitely think San Diego wins, but I can't lay double digits against a Denver team that just scored 49 points last week. I'll take the Broncs.

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