Thursday, April 28, 2011

What Has Changed in Two Days?

Pretty much everything. My mock draft is in complete shambles.

First off, Carolina has narrowed the list of potential #1 picks to four guys, none of which are Blaine Gabbert. So that means it's gotta be Cam Newton to justify the insane salary, which means Gabbert falls to either 5 or 7 or 8. A couple of Smiths (Aldon and Tyron) are becoming less popular, while another Smith (Jimmy) is flying up draft boards and threatening to go in the top 15.

Dallas is now locked in on J.J. Watt, and several teams are looking to trade up into the top 5. With the lockout situation messier than ever, teams are trying to not only meet needs but find top-level talent, even if it means trading up and giving up next year's picks.

So if I had to re-mock, which is pointless considering the real draft is tonight, I suppose it would look something like this:

1. Newton
2. Dareus
3. Miller
4. Green
5. Peterson (somebody trades up, maybe Philly?)
6. Jones
7. Gabbert (I'm not convinced San Fran even wants him, but I could be wrong)
8. Quinn
9. Watt
10. Someone stupid (Shanahan is a nut case)
11. Amukamara
12. Locker
13. Aldon Smith? Jimmy Smith? Castonzo? Maybe Bowers? I HAVE NO IDEA!

Yesterday I watched YouTube highlights and interviews of pretty much every player slated to go in the first 50 picks. I was very impressed by Bowers (who says his knee is 100%) and Castonzo (a super bright guy). I was extremely unimpressed with Aldon Smith, who predicted he would get 30 sacks last season (he got 6) and Jimmy Smith (who was compared to Nnamdi Asomugha in an interview, and responded by saying, "Okay, but I think I have better ball skills than him." Really?!? You just got compared to the best cornerback in the world and you didn't react humbly?). I also wasn't very impressed by Amukamara. He seems to be revelling in his own greatness a little bit. Tyron Smith strikes me as a clone of Gosder Cherilus.

If I had to guess, the Lions' Big Board probably looks something like this:

1. Von Miller
2. Patrick Peterson
3. Robert Quinn
4. Marcel Dareus
5. Prince Amukamara
6. Aldon Smith
7. Anthony Castonzo
8. Jimmy Smith
9. Tyron Smith
10. Da'Quan Bowers
11. J.J. Watt
12. Nate Solder

Barring an insane top 10, the first four guys will be gone. It's likely that Tyron and Prince will be gone too. I think this pick will come down to Aldon vs. Costanzo. Although Tom Kowalski believes the pick will definitely be defense, so maybe Jimmy Smith is ranking higher than Castonzo right now. I would love to see a shocker pick with Bowers, but Aldon probably ranks higher than Bowers for Detroit.

Whatever happens, there's about a 50% chance that we draft a Smith.


  1. Well I don't really know what to think of Aldon Smith. I really like his athleticism, but watching him on Game Changers left me wanting a little bit more, personality wise. I do believe Mayhew and Company have done their homework, and know what will work in their system. I hope.

  2. well said. I just don't see the fit for Aldon as a 4-3 OLB. he's a DE. he's too big to drop into coverage. if we play him at DE, that's dumb. we've got KVB and Avril. I know it would be nice to replace KVB sooner than later, but this draft and the #13 pick is too soon to worry about replacements.

    if we draft Aldon, I say let's move to a 3-4. corey at NT, suh and KVB at end, alson and avril at OLB, levy and dizon in the middle. That's probably too much transition for gunther, but heck that's why I'm saying let's not pick Aldon.

  3. Nice job on the mock contest, but you were just edged out. I am looking forward to more draft action tonight!

  4. Btw, what are you thoughts on last nights shocker? I was stunned by Fairley, not upset, but just stunned.

  5. i'll have some thoughts posted on here soon.

    wasn't mad about the pick, but would have rather picked castonzo or prince. i think schwartz is overly obsessed with d-linemen.