NFL Season Results

After completing botching the Super Bowl pick, I finished up the 2013 NFL season: 

175-90-1 straight up (66.0%)
136-120-2 against the spread (53.1%)
80-74-4 over/unders (52.0%)

As for my Super Bowl prop bets, let's just say it's a good thing I didn't put any real money on my confidence in Peyton Manning.  It would have gained me $168.80 and lost me $740, for a pretty huge deficit.  Who could have imagined Peyton would play his worst game in years on the biggest stage?   For all the discussion about whether or not his legacy would/could be affected by the Super Bowl, I didn't factor in the question:  if he morphs into Joey Harrington when all the pressure is on, does that affect his legacy?  I would have to say it does.  Still the best regular season QB ever, still going to break Favre's major records in the next two seasons, and still on Mt. Rushmore among QBs.  But his rep as the "non-clutch" foil to Brady's clutchness still remains. 

Speaking of not-clutch, my stupid playoff picks were 3-7-1 against the spread.  Picking against Seattle all three times evidently was not smart.  

Still, ending up above 53% ATS is an accomplishment.  Renowned blogger WalterFootball was at 52.3%. CBSsportsline's eight NFL experts all finished under 51%, with most of them below .500.   And of course, ESPN's columnist extraordinaire Bill Simmons finished 34 games below .500, which is impossibly bad and could never be duplicated.  

So, I'll close the books on another season above .500, and sign off for now.   Go Lions! 

Super Bowl Prop Bets

(All lines from Bovada.lv) 

DEN (-3) over Seattle
Bet $20 at -105 odds

Total score:  over 47 points
Bet $30 at -120 odds

Super Bowl MVP:
Peyton Manning - $50 at +110 odds
Russell Wilson -  $25 at +375 odds

Player to score the first TD in the game:
Julius Thomas - $10 at +800 odds
Knowshon Moreno - $10 at +900 odds

Russell Wilson, total passing yards:
OVER 209.5,  bet $25 at -130 odds

Russell Wilson, total completions:  
OVER 16.5,  bet $25 at -130 odds

Will Russell Wilson have a rushing TD in the game?
NO,  bet $60 at -350 odds

Will Percy Harvin score a TD in the game?
NO,  bet $40 at -200 odds

Richard Sherman, total tackles and assists
UNDER 3.5,  bet $20 at -115 odds

Peyton Manning, total passing yards:
OVER 290.5,  bet $50 at -105 odds

Peyton Manning, total passing TDs:
OVER 1.5, bet $150 at -260 odds

Peyton Manning, exactly 3 passing TDs:
Bet $30 at +250 odds

Total yards on Peyton's first completion:
UNDER 9.5 yards, bet $20 at -130 odds

Eric Decker, 7.5 receiving yards more than Golden Tate
Bet $40 at -115 odds

Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the singing of the National Anthem?
YES - bet $10 at +170 odds

How many times will Eli Manning be shown on TV during the game?
OVER 1.5,  bet $25 at -140 odds

Who will be seen first on TV after kickoff, Pam Oliver or Erin Andrews?
OLIVER - bet $30 at even odds

How many times will "Beast Mode" be said during the game?
UNDER 2 times, bet $20 at -150 odds

Will Michael Crabtree mention Richard Sherman in a tweet during the Super Bowl?
NO - bet $50 at -500 odds

Will Peyton Manning throw a pick-six?
NO - bet $200 at -700 odds

Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first in his speech?
Teammates - bet $50 at even odds
Other team - bet $20 at +1000 odds

Super Bowl Pick

Championship round recap:

1-1 straight up
0-2 against the spread
0-2 over/unders

Total: 

175-89-1 straight up (66.4%)
136-119-2 against the spread (53.4%)
79-74-4 over/unders (52.0%)

Playoff picks are now 8-2 straight-up, but 3-6-1 ATS.  

Somehow I may have underestimated Peyton Manning, and overestimated the affect Jim Harbaugh would have on the NFC Championship.   As far as this Richard Sherman nonsense, I guess I'm grateful that he has taken over for Ndamukong Suh as the most reviled defensive player in the NFL.  As to this debate about whether or not he's a "thug," my opinion is that he's more of a douche bag, not necessarily a thug, but definitely a douche bag. A heck of a cornerback, and pretty entertaining, but he single-handedly made 90% of America want to cheer for the Broncos.  

Unless, Sherman is a total genius, and he did all that psychopath-thuggishness crap to take all the attention off his 25 year old quarterback and let the national media focus on him for 2 weeks so Russell Wilson doesn't get overwhelmed by the spotlight and can just focus on football.  I doubt Sherman is that smart, but at the least that's a pretty convenient byproduct of his douchebaggery.  

I don't have a pick yet for the big game;  I'm leaning toward Denver, for obvious reasons, but waiting to see where the line moves.  It opened at DEN by 2.  I'm thinking by game time it'll be Denver by 3.5 or 4.  I'll probably take the Broncos.  I mean, did you see Peyton Manning this season?  Wouldn't picking against him qualify as "trying too hard to be cute"?  

*EDIT*   - The line is set at DEN by 3, and although 75% of Vegas is taking Denver, the 'sharps' seem to be siding with Seattle.   It's pretty simple:  Denver has the superior QB, Seattle has the better team.  The logical, analytic choice seems to be Seattle, while Denver is the pick for people who don't know much of anything.  Thus, I'm disappointed in myself that I've ended up in the Denver camp.  

I just don't see Peyton Manning finishing his career with only one Super Bowl.   

Broncos 28-24.  
(Over 47) 



....  

In other news, the Draft is beginning to heat up with the Senior Bowl and the scouting frenzy that ensues, and 30 of the teams in full-fledged offseason mode.  Detroit finally has two coordinators (never heard of either of them), and a bunch of meaningless promises from their new coach.  "We'll play smart."    "We'll be relentless."    "We'll protect the football."    Blah blah blah.   Whatever.    Let's just endure two more frustrating years of Stafford so we can move on to the next Era of Incompetence.    

Go Tigers!  

Conference Championship Picks

Divisional round recap:

4-0 straight up
1-3 against the spread
1-3 over/unders

Total: 

174-88-1 straight up (66.4%)
136-117-2 against the spread (53.7%)
79-72-4 over/unders (52.3%)

Playoff picks are now 7-1 straight-up, yet only 3-4-1 ATS;  that's just annoying bad luck.  

For the Conference Finals, I have the road underdogs both covering, and San Fran winning outright to set up a Niners-Broncos title game.  

Denver (14-3) is a 4.5 favorite against New England (13-4), with the betting public all over the Pats at a 78% clip. I spent most of this season fading the Patriots, mostly because I watched in anger as Tom Brady shattered my fantasy team's hopes.  But the January Patriots are not the October Patriots;  they have rebounded miraculously from the seemingly unrecoverable injuries to Mayo, Wilfork, and Gronk.  They have recreated their team on the fly.  LeGarrettee Blount's inexplicable emergence as Marshawn Lynch 2.0 exemplifies the trademark resurgence of a veteran left for dead that defines Bill Belichick's Hall of Fame career.  Insane as it sounds, Blount might be the key player in the the 2014 NFL postseason.  Who saw that coming?  

Denver is an offensive juggernaut, obviously, but the Pats' secondary seems to be coming together at the right time.  Still, I can't get myself to pick New England straight up.  Just seems too much like Denver's year.  I have the Broncos 33-31 and the over (55.5). 

The 14-3 Seahawks are also a slim home favorite, giving 3.5 points against the red-hot Niners.  This spread would be 3 or 2.5 if not for the fact that Seattle has the best homefield advantage in sports.  San Francisco has simply been playing better football than any other team over the past 2 months, and has the best roster from top to bottom.  Thus, we have another underdog dominating the Vegas betting, at 74%.  

I've got the Niners winning this game 23-16, primarily because the 49ers defense is uniquely qualified to stop the Seahawks rushing attack with elite inside linebackers Bowman and Willis.  If they can force Russell Wilson into 3rd and longs, they have the speed on the edges to prevent him from making those improv plays that he routinely makes against other defenses.  Seattle lacks the weapons in the passing game to make big plays; they need to lean on the running game, and they won't be able to against San Fran. 

Kaepernick, on the other hand, is the ideal QB to face Seattle's nonpareil defense.  He can extend plays with his legs, turn the corner and run like vintage Michael Vick, and has the arm to keep the safeties honest.  He played most of this season in the pocket, but in the postseason he has emerged as the deadly dual-threat he was last postseason.  Perhaps that was Harbaugh coaching him conservatively and keeping him healthy?  

Either way, San Fran has just enough weapons to put up points on Seattle, albeit not a ton of points.   I've got the under by half a point (39.5).  

Now that the picks are out of the way, let's talk about Jim Caldwell. 

..... 

On second thought, no.  Let's not.  I need a 3 month break from the Lions.  

It's almost baseball season!  Go Tigers!  

*Oh, by the way, the answer to the question in the last post was Steven Jackson.  

Divisional Round Picks

Wildcard recap:

3-1 straight up
2-1-1 against the spread
1-3 over/unders

Total: 

170-88-1 straight up (65.9%)
135-114-2 against the spread (54.2%)
78-69-4 over/unders (53.0%)

Technically, I should be 3-1 ATS, having picked the Niners to win by 3 (which they did), but since they were a 3-point favorite, it goes in the tie column. I did nail two of the final spreads (Colts by 1, Niners by 3), so that counts for something.  Nobody saw the Chargers beating Cincy by 17, because nobody saw Cincy only scoring 10 points, after they routinely scored 30+ at home.  Andy Dalton chose a terrible time to play one of his worst games. San Diego is the darkhorse nobody wants to play.  As for Indy/KC, that was the game of the weekend, far more entertaining than any college football game played this season (maybe ever), and catapulted Andrew Luck into the echelon of today's elite QBs, maybe even into third place behind Peyton and Brees.  I honestly don't know who has the better QB in the upcoming Colts/Pats game.  

Also, I was very impressed by Alex Smith and Nick Foles in losing efforts.  (And Rodgers of course).  Of the eight QBs who played this weekend, Andy Dalton was the only one who didn't look markedly better than Matthew Stafford looks on a regular basis. (Speaking of the Lions, after a week of scary-bad-coach-rumors, it sounds like Ken Whisenhunt will be the guy.  It's no Dungy, but I'll take it!)   Now, of the 8 remaining QBs, the worst ones are Kaepernick and Newton.  That's a pretty dang impressive cast.  

Regarding the Draft, we now have declared confirmation that Bridgewater, Manziel and Clowney are going pro (although everybody already knew they were), as well as UCF's Blake Bortles and USC's Marqise Lee.  We also know that UCLA's QB Hundley is staying in school, which takes one potential first-rounder out of the mix for 2014. With the Lions picking 10th, Marqise Lee is definitely in contention, along with top receivers Mike Evans (A&M) and Sammy Watkins (Clemson). A wide receiver makes a ton of sense for Detroit, especially given that there's no elite prospects in the secondary and there's plenty of depth at receiver.  Being free from Jim Schwartz's terrible drafting hubris is a wonderful thing. 

On to the Divisional Round picks: 

Saints (12-5) @ Seahawks (13-3)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 6
Actual Line:  SEA by 7.5

I see this as a low-scoring affair, with the Seattle defense coming up with numerous big stops and Russell Wilson playing smart, efficient, and making very few mistakes.  Drew Brees can't do it all by himself.  Seahawks 20-13. 
(Under 48) 

Colts (12-5) @ Patriots (12-4)
Predicted Line:  NE by 5.5
Actual Line:  NE by 7.5

Two elite quarterbacks, two shaky run games, two offenses missing their best weapon (Wayne, Gronk).  Both teams have injuries all over the place, but the Pats have the overall better roster, particularly on defense.  The combo of Talib, Arrington, and McCourtey should effectively be able to eliminate T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener from Luck's disposal, and if the Colts are forced to run, I don't like their chances.  Basically, for the Colts to have a chance, Andrew Luck needs to put on another amazing performance, using guys named Griff, LaVon, and Da'Rick. 

The Pats' offense is banged-up and inconsistent, but the Edelman/Amendola/Vereen trio excels in route-running and quickness, which should allow the Patriots to move the ball on the Colts ineffective secondary, who were just torched by Alex Smith.  Indy's best corner, Vontae Davis, is slowed down with a hip injury. 

I love Andrew Luck, always have, always will. I think he's the future of the NFL, and will win multiple Super Bowl rings.  However, in Foxboro, against Belichick's superior brain, with Tom Brady leading the opposing offense, I don't think the Colts stand a chance.  Patriots 27-17. 
(Under 53) 

49ers (13-4) @ Panthers (12-4)
Predicted Line:  SF by 2.5
Actual Line:  SF by 3

All the money is on San Fran as a road favorite, in what figures to be a low-scoring, defense-dominated battle in the trenches.  Both teams have elite middle linebackers, mobile quarterbacks, and lackluster offensive weapons. Both teams are well-coached, disciplined, and protect the football. Carolina's turnover differential was +11; San Fran's was +12.  Excluding Seattle, those were the best marks in the NFC.  (Detroit?  -12) 

Both defenses can get after the passer (Carolina led the NFL with 60 sacks), and both defenses can stuff the run (San Fran, at 3.7 YPC, is 3rd in the NFL), so it makes sense why the total point over/under is set at a minuscule 42. 

A few reasons to take San Fran:  superior coach, superior punter (makes a difference in a game like this), superior running back, superior quarterback (I think?), more playoff-tested. 

A few reasons to take Carolina:  homefield advantage, elite front-seven on defense, Riverboat Ron. 

Ultimately, it just comes down to this being Cam Newton's first playoff game.  I don't know if he has the maturity to outlast the disciplined Niners.  Kaepernick is 3-1 in the playoffs, and only one of those wins came at home. Niners 26-24. 
(Over 42) 

Chargers (10-7) @ Broncos (13-3)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 10.5 
Actual Line:  DEN by 9.5

San Diego's surge-into-the-playoffs-and-beat-Cincinnati routine was exciting, but this is simply Denver's year. Broncos 38-17. 
(Over 54.5) 



*Interesting fact:  only one active NFL running back ranks in the top 25 in career rushing yards.  It's not Adrian Peterson.  See if you can guess; I'll post the answer in the next batch of picks.  Try not to cheat.  Leave a comment or something.  That is, if anyone is reading this.... 

Wildcard Picks (And results from preseason picks)

Week 17 recap:

13-3 straight up
9-7 against the spread
10-6 over/unders

Total Regular Season: 

167-87-1 straight up (65.7%)
133-113-1 against the spread (54.1%)
77-66-4 over/unders (53.8%)

Overall, a very solid season of picks. Much better than last year (61.5%/50.4%)  Nearly tied my ATS record from 2011 (54.3%).  With a successful string of playoff picks, I can get to 55%.  

In other news, Gym Shorts was fired on Black Monday, and the Lion Faithful rejoiced.  Still a lot to be determined though. Who will coordinate the offense?  Who will compose the secondary?  What receivers will be added to complement Calvin?   What will we do with the #10 pick?  And most importantly, who will be the head coach?  Assuming the Gruden/Cowher/Dungy group is not interested, I have to think Lovie Smith is at the top of Detroit's list.  He knows the NFC North, he is a 4-3 defense guy, and he went to a Superbowl with Rex Grossman.  That's my choice.   

But knowing the Lions, they'll try their chances with the 'hot coordinator' routine, once again. We have seen how that works out.  Marty, Marinelli, Schwartz.  None of them were real coaches.  Chances are, we'll hire Denver's O-coordinator or Seattle's D-coordinator or something obnoxiously cliche like that.  Ugh.  Is it Tigers season yet?  

*EDIT*  The damn Bucs just signed Lovie Smith.  The Lions are interviewing Jim Caldwell (who went 2-14 a couple years ago in one of the most pathetic coaching displays of all time).  I hate the Lions.  

Before we get to the Wildcard picks, a quick revisit to my preseason prop bets.

Team over/unders: 

Correct: 
Atlanta - under 10 wins (Bet $20 at -150 odds, won $13.33)
Cleveland - under 6 wins (Bet $45 at +145 odds, won $65.25) 
Detroit - under 8 wins *Shakes head slowly in disbelief* (Bet $25 at even odds, won $25) 
Jacksonville - under 5 wins (Bet $35 at -130 odds, won $26.92) 
New England - over 10.5 wins (Bet $45 at +120 odds, won $54) 
New Orleans - over 9 wins (Bet $20 at -150 odds, won $13.33) 
Oakland - under 5.5 wins (Bet $30 at -200 odds, won $15) 

Incorrect: 
Baltimore - over 8.5 wins (Bet $40, lost $40) 
Cincinnati - under 8.5 wins (Bet $35, lost $35) 
Green Bay - over 10.5 wins (Bet $40, lost $40) 

7 out of 10 is pretty good.  If Rodgers stayed healthy I would have been 8 of 10.  As it was, I was up by $97.83. 

Then there's the team prop bets: 

Correct:
Atlanta doesn't make the playoffs.  (Bet $25 at +135 odds, won $33.75) 
Indianapolis does make the playoffs.  (Bet $30 at +145 odds, won $43.50)
New Orleans does make the playoffs.  (Bet $30 at -150 odds, won $20)
Oakland doesn't make the playoffs.  (Bet $20 at -2000 odds, won $1) 
Indy wins the AFC South.  (Bet $35 at +240 odds, won $84) 
Green Bay wins the NFC North.  (Bet $40 at -140 odds, won $28.57)

Incorrect: 
Baltimore makes the playoffs. (Lost $20)
Miami makes the playoffs (Lost $20)
Tampa makes the playoffs (Lost $35)
Washington makes the playoffs (Lost $35)
Baltimore wins the AFC North (Lost $50)
New Orleans wins the NFC South (Lost $30)
St. Louis wins the NFC West (Lost $15)
Calgary wins the CFL Grey Cup (Lost $10)

So I won $210.82 and lost $215, for a net loss of $4.18.  Not bad I guess.  Shouldn't have taken those fliers on Miami and St. Louis, though the payout would have been hefty.  

My player prop bets went 0 for 11, for a total loss of $190, unless Gio Bernard somehow wins Rookie of the Year, which would get me $360.  (He was on track until stinkin' Eddie Lacy and Keenan Allen came along).  I had some decent picks here, especially Jamaal Charles to win the rushing title, but ended up with an 0-fer. 

Still a few team prop bets with a chance of paying out.  My three Super Bowl bets were New Orleans, New England and Green Bay.  Saints would win me $360, Pats would net $250, and Packers $420.   I don't think any of them have a good chance, but I figure 3 out of 12 is a decent shot.  

Lastly, my player over/unders. I did one per team.  Here are the results. 

Correct: 
Rashard Mendenhall - under 750 rushing yards  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39) 
Osi Umenyiora - under 8.5 sacks  (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78) 
Greg Hardy - over 8 sacks  (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78) 
Brandon Marshall - under 102.5 receptions  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Andy Dalton - over 15.5 interceptions  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39) 
Wes Welker - under 90.5 receptions  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Calvin Johnson - over 1,405 receiving yards  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Calvin Johnson - over 10 receiving TDs  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
JJ Watt - under 15.5 sacks  (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78)
Andrew Luck - over 250 rushing yards  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Blaine Gabbert - under 10.5 games started  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Dwayne Bowe - under 1,000 receiving yards  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Ryan Tannehill - over 14.5 interceptions  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Danny Amendola - under 950 receiving yards   (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Drew Brees - over 4,700 passing yards   (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Dee Milliner - over 2.5 interceptions   (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Denarius Moore - under 750 receiving yards   (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Michael Vick - under 3,200 passing yards   (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78)
Ben Roethlisberger - over 12.5 interceptions   (Bet $40 at -115 odds, won $34.78) 
Marshawn Lynch - over 10 rushing TDs  (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Tavon Austin - under 75.5 receptions   (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Doug Martin - under 1,200 rushing yards   (Bet $20 at -115 odds, won $17.39)
Matt Ryan more passing yards than Romo  (Bet $30 at +115 odds, won $34.50)
AJ Green more receiving yards than Andre Johnson  (Bet $40 at +105 odds, won $42)

Incorrect: 
Ray Rice - over 1100 rushing yards.  (Lost $20)
Steve Johnson - over 6.5 receiving TDs  (Lost $20)
Trent Richardson - over 9.5 rushing TDs  (Lost $20)
Tony Romo - over 4,440 passing yards  (Lost $20)
Calvin Johnson - over 100.5 receptions (Lost $20) 
Aaron Rodgers - over 38.5 passing TDs  (Lost $20)
Adrian Peterson - over 11.5 rushing TDs (Lost $20)
Hakeem Nicks - over 5.5 receiving TDs  (Lost $20)
Ryan Matthews - under 900.5 rushing yards  (Lost $20)
Colin Kaepernick - under 550 rushing yards *SO CLOSE*  (Lost $20)
Jake Locker - over 13.5 interceptions  (Lost $20)
Robert Griffin III - over 14.5 games started  (Lost $20)
Mike Munchak - first coach fired  (Lost $25) 
Any QB rushes for 1,000 yards  (Lost $35)
Any team goes 0-16  (Lost $20)
Von Miller more sacks than Clay Matthews (Lost $40)
Ray Rice more rushing yards than CJ Spiller (Lost $30)

24 correct, 17 incorrect.  Pretty good.  That makes for a total of $390 lost and a total of $546.03 won, for a net of $156.03.  

Add them all together, and because of those stupid player prop bets (0 for 11, lost $190) I'm at a net loss of $20.32.  So unless the Pack, Pats or Saints win the Super Bowl, it's another negative season for me.  I am starting to realize why Vegas makes money.  

Bah.  

Here are the Wildcard picks: 

Chiefs (11-5) @ Colts (11-5)
Predicted Line:  IND by 2.5
Actual Line:  IND by 3 

The Chiefs started out 9-0 and then went 2-5 to end the year.  Against playoff teams, they went 1-5 this season. Their quarterback is Alex Smith. They have no receivers.  Tamba Hali is still out.  

Indy, meanwhile, has a lousy defense, no running attack, and hasn't rebounded since losing Reggie Wayne.  It's just been Andrew Luck carrying the team on his back while going 6-0 against a pathetic division.  

So what gives?    

The best unit on the field will be the KC defense, and they'll keep the game low-scoring.  But in Lucas Oil Stadium, the Chiefs offense will have a tough time getting in the end zone, and we'll see something like a 10-6 game at halftime.  I like the points in a low-scoring matchup; let's say Indy 17-16.  
(Under 47) 

Saints (11-5) @ Eagles (10-6)
Predicted Line:  NO by 2
Actual Line:  PHI by 3 

I mean, I've been driving the Nick Foles Bangwagon for over a month, and even I don't understand how Philly should be favored in this game.  Philly's defense is horrendous against the pass; the Saints will score at will. Philly will be able to keep pace for a while, but Brees will pull away.  Saints 31-24. 
(Over 54) 

Chargers (9-7) @ Bengals (11-5)
Predicted Line:  CIN by 6
Actual Line:   CIN by 7 

Not only is Cincy 8-0 at home this season, they are 8-0 against the spread, which is downright incredible.  They scored 34 or more in 6 of those 8 home games, and in their last five home games the margins of victory have been:  40, 21, 14, 28, and 17.  In other words, San Diego is in trouble.  I'm taking the Bengals +7, not because of their offense, but because of their defense. Bengals 27-19.  
(Under 47)  

49ers (12-4) @ Packers (8-7-1)
Predicted Line:  SF by 3.5
Actual Line:   SF by 3 

Hard to believe it was just last year's playoffs when Colin Kaepernick ran for 181 yards (and threw for 263 more) to demolish the Packers, all while making the whole thing look completely effortless. The Niners outgained the Pack by 220 yards and dominated every facet of that game.  Fast-forward twelve months, and San Fran is even better than they were, and Green Bay is probably worse.

A few caveats though:  Eddie Lacy changes the complexion of this game, if he can generate any kind of a rushing attack against San Fran's front 7, which, granted, is unlikely.  But Green Bay had no running game last year to take the pressure off Rodgers.  This time, it's imperative, as Rodgers is still getting used to playing with a broken shoulder. 

Secondly, last year's playoff game was in California.  This one is in Wisconsin, with a forecast in the single digits. That favors a low-scoring game controlled by running the ball, which clearly favors the Niners. 
  
Ultimately, San Fran has the coaching edge, the personnel edge, and the biggest advantage of all:  the fact that Green Bay's defense flat-out sucks.  But, the Packers have two things San Fran doesn't:  homefield advantage, and Aaron Rodgers.  Let's see how that shoulder works.  

I have San Fran winning by 3 exactly, 27-24, but for the sake of the ATS pick, I'll say GB-3.  
(Over 47)  


Go Lions! 

Week 17 Picks

Week 16 recap: 

9-7 straight up

8-8 against the spread

10-6 over/unders

Total:


154-84-1 straight up (64.7%)
124-106-1 against the spread (53.9%)
67-60-4 over/unders (52.7) 

Here are the week 17 picks: 

Panthers (11-4) @ Falcons (4-11)
Predicted Line:  CAR by 7

Actual Line:  CAR by 6 

Since the Panthers started out 1-3 and I questioned whether Cam Newton had a future in the NFL, they have won 10 of 11, with the only loss in New Orleans.  They dominated in 6 of those games and also beat three legit playoff teams along the way. They just might be the team to beat in the NFC.  In this extra-meaningful game, they'll keep Atlanta looking hapless.  Panthers 27-14. 
(Under 46)  

Ravens (8-7) @ Bengals (10-5)
Predicted Line:  CIN by 4.5
Actual Line:  CIN by 7 

Complete desperation for Baltimore; I gotta believe this spread is too high.  Bengals 19-17. 
(Under 44.5) 

Texans (2-13) @ Titans (6-9)
Predicted Line:  TEN by 5
Actual Line: TEN by 7.5

For the longest time, it looked inevitable that Teddy Bridgewater would be quarterbacking the Jaguars for many years to come. Now, Houston can secure the #1 pick and make sure Bridgewater does indeed play in the AFC South.  Incredibly, this will be their 14th straight loss.  Titans don't cover the spread though, 21-16. 
(Under 44) 

Jaguars (4-11) @ Colts (10-5)
Predicted Line:  IND by 6.5
Actual Line:  IND by 11 

Whoa there.  How are the Colts getting 11 points against anybody?  Their defense is pathetic.  Indy 28-24. 
(Over 45.5) 

Jets (7-8) @ Dolphins (8-7)
Predicted Line:  MIA by 4
Actual Line:  MIA by 6 

Dolphins still have something to play for, but the Jets would love to spoil their season.  I like the points in this defensive matchup. Miami 21-16.   Bonus prediction:  Rex Ryan does NOT get fired.  
(Under 41.5)

Speaking of coaches being fired, Black Monday is nearly upon us.  The list of coaches absolutely certain to be fired is quite small:  Mike Shanahan.  But the list of coaches with a better than 50% chance of being fired is extensive:  Jim Schwartz, Greg Schiano, Leslie Frazier, Mike Munchak, whoever coaches Jacksonville and Oakland.   Then there are many with a small chance of termination, including Jason Garrett, Tom Coughlin, Doug Marrone, Mike Smith, Rex Ryan, maybe even Mike Tomlin.  It should be a Black Monday to remember.  Heads will roll.  

Lions (7-8) @ Vikings (4-10-1)
Predicted Line:  DET by 2
Actual Line:  MIN by 3 

No AP, Matt Cassel at QB, and a stupid spread.  Very tempting.  Alright, fine:  Lions 27-24 in Schwartz's final game.
(Under 51.5) 

Assuming Gym Shorts does get fired (which might be giving the Lions' execs too much credit), who are the best fits for his replacement?  Someone known for disciplined teams, such as Lovie Smith, Tom Coughlin, Ken Whisenhunt?  Or someone known for developing QBs, such as Gruden, Bill O'Brien, etc.?  Or, a proven college coach, like Stanford's David Shaw or A&M's Kevin Sumlin?  Many, many options out there.  Most likely, it'll be a successful NFL coordinator who we've never heard of, not a big name like Lovie or Gruden.  We shall see. 

Redskins (3-12) @ Giants (6-9)
Predicted Line:  NYG by 3
Actual Line:  NYG by 3.5

Shanahan's final game as a head coach, Kirk Cousins's last chance for a 2014 audition, Eli's fnale to one of the worst quarterbacking seasons ever, and an end of misery for both fan bases.  With Cruz out and Cousins playing well, I am taking the Skins in an upset, 26-23. 
(Over 45) 

Browns (4-11) @ Steelers (7-8)
Predicted Line:  PIT by 6.5
Actual Line:  PIT by 7 

Steelers need a win, and the Browns have been quietly tanking for a better shot at a top 5 pick.  Looks like a blowout.  38-23. 
(Over 44)

Sidenote:  Watch out for the Browns in 2015.  With a franchise QB (like Manziel or Hundley) throwing to stud Josh Gordon, and a strong defense that will include whoever they take with Indy's 1st round pick this April, that will be a playoff team.  Unless of course their franchise QB is a dud.

Packers (7-7-1) @ Bears (8-7)
Predicted Line:  GB by 3
Actual Line:  GB by 3 

Rodgers is back!  Cutler sucks!  Packers are in the playoffs with 8 wins.  How pathetic is that.  Final score:  Pack 34-27.  
(Over 51)

Broncos (12-3) @ Raiders (4-11)
Predicted Line:  DEN by 11.5
Actual Line:  DEN by 11.5

Don't know why nobody has talked about this yet, but Peyton Manning is going to break Favre's career TD record sometime in the middle of next season.  He needs 21 more.  He'll also break the total passing yards record if he plays two more seasons. (Needs about 6,000.) What's truly amazing is that Peyton has 117 fewer interceptions than Favre.   

Also important:  the Broncos need 17 points to break the '07 Pats record for points scored in a season.  They've scored 150 more points that anybody else this season.  

Lastly, a Broncos' victory clinches homefield throughout the playoffs.  So put that all together, against a dead-duck opponent, and let's say Denver 37-13.
(Under 54)    

Bills (6-9) @ Patriots (11-4)
Predicted Line:  NE by 9.5
Actual Line:  NE by 8 

Thad Lewis is starting for the Bills again.  New England is gunning for the 2 seed. I'm not overthinking this one.  Pats 28-13. 
(Under 46.5)

Bucs (4-11) @ Saints (10-5)
Predicted Line:  NO by 12
Actual Line:  NO by 12 

A win clinches the playoffs.  Saints won't be messing around.  37-20. 
(Over 47.5)

49ers (11-4) @ Cardinals (10-5)
Predicted Line:  SF by 6
Actual Line:  SF by 1 

Great defensive matchup.  The key:  one of these quarterbacks is Carson Palmer.  Niners 16-13. 
(Under 42) 

Chiefs (11-4) @ Chargers (8-7)
Predicted Line:  KC by 3   *Oops* 
Actual Line:  SD by 9 

The "Nothing to Play for Chiefs" should roll out plenty of backups and treat this like a preseason game.  Rivers will pick apart the backup defense, and the Chiefs' offense will do nothing without Charles. Chargers cover with a couple late scores, 31-20. 
(Over 45) 

Rams (7-8) @ Seahawks (12-3)
Predicted Line:  SEA by 12.5
Actual Line:  SEA by 12.5 

Rams defense is too good for me to take this many points.  Plus, Zac Stacy can move the chains.  Seahawks 24-17. 
(Under 42.5) 

Eagles (9-6) @ Cowboys (8-7)
Predicted Line:  PHI by 7 
Actual Line:  PHI by 7 

I invented a game called The Romo Game this week.  It works like this:  you turn on sports radio, look at the clock, and see how many minutes go by until you hear the word "Romo."  On average, it's about 30 seconds.  Often, it's less than 2 seconds. With all the stories going on right now (Peyton smashing records, Rodgers coming back, 7 marquee quarterbacks going to the playoffs, etc) the only story worthy of The Talking Heads is Romo's injury.  Seriously?  The real story should be Kyle Orton. Heck, the real story of this game is Nick Foles.  25 TDs and 2 interceptions!  That dude is incredible.   The only way this game is close is if DeMarco Murray gets 25+ carries.  But he won't.  Cowboys are too stupid.  Philly 31-17.
(Under 53) 

Go Lions?