Heading into week 17, the playoff picture is abundantly clear in the NFC (Saints, Vikes, Eagles, Cards, Cowboys and Pack) while the AFC is a muddled mess of 8-7 teams. This is the time of year when the phrase "loss or tie" is used way too often. Can't we just agree that ties in the NFL only happen once every decade and stop acting like it's a distinct possibility? Anyway, my NFL Power Poll needs a Season Ending Edition and it may end up looking quite a bit different than you might expect. Both Cleveland and Tampa are on two game winning streaks, and Oakland has won 3 of their past 6 games. Meanwhile, both Minnesota and New Orleans have looked average at best over the past four weeks. This Power Poll is not based on the standings or playoff positioning. It's based on who I believe are the best teams in the NFL right now, ranked 1-32, and which playoff teams I feel have the best chance at winning in February. Without further ado ...
The "Teams Picking in the Top Three of the NFL Draft Three Years in a Row"
32. St. Louis.
I realize the Rams beat the Lions head-to-head for their only victory this season, but I'm still ranking them behind Detroit, even though Steven Jackson is an MVP candidate this season and they have a coach that I would trade straight up for Jim Schwartz in less than a heartbeat. But the absolutely sweeping void of talent in St. Louis is so staggering that they have been rendered completely uncompetitive in every single game this season (except the Lions game) and will be picking #1 in the draft barring an unlikely win over San Fran on Sunday. The only question: will they take Suh, or risk their fortunes on a quarterback? Clausen is a tool and Bradford is an injury risk. Maybe they'll go with Tennessee safety Eric Berry, since as Crazy Keith pointed out, they are already spending about $15 million next season on two defensive lineman (Chris Long and Adam Carriker) who were both top 15 picks in 2008 and 2007, respectively. Adding Suh to that mix would risk a lot on the defensive line and leave the secondary in shambles. I really think they'll consider drafting Berry, who has drawn a lot of comparisons to Ed Reed. Clausen is also a possibility, since they have no prospects at the quarterback position, but they may choose to draft a QB in the second or third round in the interest of saving money. But that's enough about the Rams...
31. Detroit Lions.
They have moved progressively downward in the Power Poll all year, thanks to a massive decrease in motivation and effort and a current 1-11 streak, with the one win being a buzzer-beater against the Browns. I blame poor coaching more than I blame injuries. True, a lot of starters went down, but with the exception of Megatron none of replacements were significantly less talented than the starter. Injuries on the O and D lines may have actually improved the Lions personnel by removing worthless drubs like Pederson, DeVries and Cook, and injuries in the secondary to Manuel and King allowed guys like Will James and Marvin White to play, and there's no question that they were improvements. DeAndre Levy even did a very commendable job filling in for Ernie Sims for 11 games, and the constant shuffling on the defensive line wasn't a real factor since there was no pass rush to begin with. No, injuries were not the problem this season. It was a clear lack of leadership and direction and identity, and it all starts with Jim Schwartz, who seems more focused on his fohawk than his gameplan. What is it with the Lions and hiring incompetent coaches and coordinators? Don't they interview these guys?
The defense was obviously horrid this season, giving up almost as many points and yards as they did during the infamously bad 2008 campaign. Gunther Cunningham's alleged "blitz packages" were no where to be seen, and aside from a few Louis Delmas bone-crunching hits and Larry Foote's constant presence, there was nothing to get excited about on the defensive end. That's why fans like myself are so excited about the possibility of adding Ndamakong Suh, a guy who could be dominant as a rookie. In fact, with the promising play of Levy this year, I've been giving a lot of thought to the Lions coming out in a 3-4 scheme next season, with Peterson and Levy on the outside, and Sims and Foote as the interior linebackers. That gives Delmas more freedom to make tackles and not worry as much about pass coverage, and makes Peterson's pass rushing skills more utilized. If we land Suh, he is the perfect nosetackle for the 3-4. If not, Grady Jackson is big enough to do the job for one year. It's not like the 4-3 scheme is working, so a change might be what we need. You know, a real change, instead of all the "culture of losing" change we've heard about all season. How about an actual, tangible change? That would be nice.
On offense, there's a lot of blame to go around. Stafford was inaccurate, indecisive, and skittish - all the things you expect a rookie QB to be. He threw a dreary 13 TDs and 20 INTs, but we certainly missed him when Daunte Culpepper played. The running game was non existent for most of the season and Calvin Johnson was made out of porcelain. The other receivers and backs did nothing whatsoever and freaking Casey Fitzsimmons was targeted an ungodly amount of times. You can rightly blame the stupid blocking schemes, the quarterback, the offensive line, or the general lack of talent, but as for me, I blame Scott Linehan and his preposterous play-calling. How many times did the Lions run the ball on 2nd and 10 this year? Five hundred times? On obvious passing downs, Linehan dialed up a screen because he had no confidence in the downfield passing game. It was sad and predictable and futile, and it made it abundantly obvious why Linehan was 3-17 in his last 20 games as a head coach in St. Louis. I don't think the offensive line is as terrible as folks say it is; if you don't have a quarterback who can step up in the pocket and buy 1 or 2 seconds for themselves, the O-line is going to look a lot worse than it really is. Stafford’s pocket presence began the season at a D- and improved to maybe a D+. The Lions are ranked 31st for now and I have little doubt that if the season continued another two weeks, they'd be back in last, where the spent all of 2008. It's been a rough decade folks. Hopefully picking #2 in the draft won't be the curse it has been in years past. Maybe we can even trade down and acquire multiple picks, in the interests of saving money as well as not mortgaging our future on one pick panning out. I am so sick of draft busts as a Detroit fan. Expect another busy but ultimately ineffective offseason.
The "Really, Really Bad Teams"
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I know they've won two in a row, including an impressive win over the Saints last week, but they're still god-awful. I certainly give them credit for not tanking for a better draft pick and playing until the final week. But their future is bleak and coach Raheem Morris is in way over his head.
29. Kansas City Chiefs.
During the offseason, I liked KC as a sleeper, and it pains me to admit it, but I was wrong. Way wrong. A lot of people still don’t realize just how awful they were this season on both sides of the ball. They’re on their way to finishing 3-13 with several losses to really bad teams. Matt Cassel was a $63 million dollar mistake, and I’m starting to wonder if it’s a coincidence that 3 of their last 4 first round picks came out of LSU, and they’ve all been busts? Maybe LSU just doesn’t produce good NFL players. Remember, a certain big dumb Raiders quarterback is from LSU too. Looks like a trend to me. The one bright side for the Chiefs season: Jamaal Charles. He was an absolute beast when he filled in for twitter-twit Larry Johnson midway through the season; through seven starts LJ had accrued just 44 measly fantasy points, while Charles put up 130 fantasy points in eight games.
28. Cleveland Browns.
Four weeks ago I announced them as the heirs to the #1 overall pick, and ever since they made me look stupid with 3 straight wins behind the legs of Jerome Harrison and Josh Cribbs. Make no mistake, the Browns are a terrible team, but considering that they should have beat Detroit and also Cincinnati in week 4, and this could be a 6-10 football team. The Browns have one of my favorite fan bases; I sympathize with them for their long-suffering, and any group of people who gather together to hate the Steelers have my respect. Wouldn’t it be ironic if they drafted Jimmy Clausen with their top 5 pick, replacing Brady Quinn as the Franchise QB and continuing the tradition of drafting pretty boy QBs out of Notre Dame? I hope they do it for comedy’s sake. But they probably won’t. They’re a good landing spot for Berry or McCoy. Going to be an interesting offseason for them; Mike Holmgren is in as team president, and could have a Parcells-like influence by restructuring the entire team. Starting with the inevitable firing of numbskull Eric Mangini.
27. Oakland Raiders.
With Bruce Gradkowski behind center, the Raiders are actually a respectable football team. They’ve won 3 of their last 6 games, and beaten some playoff-bound teams. Unfortunately, it took them ten weeks to replace the incurably inept JaMarcus Russell, who has become nothing more than a living punchline at this point in his sad, sad career. The Raiders actually have some very good players: Nnamdi Asomugha, Kirk Morrison (a wildly underrated linebacker), Zach Miller, and the best punter in the NFL, Shane Lechler. Unfortunately, they are the Raiders, and that means that they’ve been plagued by the craziest owner in pro sports, and also the most erratic draft tactics. Darrius Heyward-Bey with the seventh overall pick in 2009 will go down in history as one of the worst picks of all time. Seriously. I remember the morning of the draft, hearing Mel Kiper Jr. talk about Heyward-Bey as an intriguing sleeper worth a pick in maybe the fourth or fifth round. And then the Raiders drafted him ahead of Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks and Britt – five legitimate NFL receivers. Not to mention dozens of legit NFL players at other positions. Just a ridiculous, horrible, inane pick. The Raiders are plagued by crazy drafting, and I can’t wait to see what they do this year. What a strange team.
26. Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo is another one of those ‘cursed’ franchises that just can’t seem to turn the corner year after year. They fired their offensive coordinator a week before the season started, and then decided to run the no-huddle offense even though they didn’t have a competent quarterback or experienced offensive line. It was a predictable disaster. Plus, Buffalo fans have to constantly look over their shoulder and worry about the team moving to Toronto, a nasty rumor that just won’t go away. The defense was okay this year, but when your team isn’t scoring points, you aren’t winning, and that’s that.
The problem for chronically crappy teams like Buffalo, Detroit and Cleveland is that to rebuild in the NFL, you can’t just rely on free agency. You have to draft better. You bring in a big-name guy like Marcus Stroud in 2008 and it improves you defensive line, but you’re bound to lose somebody else. You bring in TO in 2009, but at what price? You have to trade Jason Peters (your only Pro Bowler and stud left tackle) to make room. Buffalo struggled all season to protect the passer as a result, and first round pick Eric Wood wasn’t exactly a wonder rookie. He was drafted as a center but played guard all season, until a season ending injury midway through the year. Whoopee. Their previous draft picks haven’t been awful, but they haven’t been enough. They’re still recovering from taking JP Losman in the first round in 2004. Look at the consistently elite teams: how often do you see Indy, New England or Pittsburgh botch a draft pick? How about never. The other problem in Buffalo is coaching. Dick Jauron is the opposite of inventive. He’s just your typical C-minus coach who doesn’t really improve your chances of winning in any perceivable way. They’ve got to shake things up, but it’s hard because no coach or player wants to move to frigid Buffalo. Maybe Don Beebe will be interested in making a comeback …
The “Disappointingly Terrible Teams”
25. Chicago Bears.
Ranked this low for one reason and one reason only. You guessed it. I don’t even have to say it. But I will anyway. Jay Cutler. 26 INTs and still one game to go. Too bad it’s against the Lions or he might have a shot at 30. He’s also been sacked 33 times and has a passer rating of 73. Good season you ass. And to think, Denver had the audacity to consider trading you! How dare them! (BTW, Orton’s QB rating is 89, he has just 9 picks to 20 TDs, and has thrown for only 19 less yards than Cutler on the season. Just something to think about.)
24. Seattle Seahawks.
They used to be famous for their intimidating home-field advantage, but at Qwest Field they were only 4-3 this year (one game remaining against Tennessee), with two of the wins against St. Louis and Detroit. On the road, they got shellacked by any team that could pass the ball, losing games at Indy, Dallas, Arizona, Minnesota, Houston, and Green Bay by scores of 17, 21, 24, 26, 27, and 38. Yikes. They also lost AT HOME to Tampa Bay by 17. Just not a good season for them at all.
23. Washington Redskins.
There were a lot of candidates, but I believe Washington wins this years “Most Disappointing Team’ award, at least in my eyes. As you may remember, they were my super sleeper all offseason. I really believed in Albert Haynesworth. And Jason Campbell. And Jim Zorn. If you saw what Haynesworth did in 2008 in Tennessee, my feelings were understandable. I even argued vehemently at the fantasy draft in August that they were the team to watch, and suffered ridicule as a result. What went wrong? Well, besides the emasculation of their head coach and the subsequent lack of cohesion and identity, there was also the complete lack of offensive production for the first eight weeks of the season. It wasn’t until week 10 against Denver that they finally scored twenty points. Then they got hot, and ALMOST beat the Eagles, and then ALMOST beat the Saints. Then they just gave up and got pasted the past two weeks. Now it appears about 95% certain that Mike Shanahan will be their coach next year (which means a reuniting with Clinton Portis and the good old zone-blocking scheme), and a retooling of the entire offense. If I’m not mistaken, that will mean Jason Campbell’s sixth different offensive coordinator in seven seasons. Or something like that. How do you expect the guy to improve under those circumstances? It was an up-and-down year for Washington, with a heavy emphasis on the down. Losing to Detroit is about as bad as it gets. They did show some signs of promise, though, and I really like their prospects of using an effective two tight end formation next year with Cooley and Fred Davis. Either that, or trade Cooley. Because Davis looked really good after Cooley got hurt.
The “Promising Start, Disheartening Finish” Teams
22. San Francisco 49ers.
They swept Arizona and lost only one division game (assuming they’ll beat the Rams this week), and still are going to finish just 8-8. That’s a whopping three wins outside of the division, and those were against Detroit, Chicago and the Jags. So basically, San Fran went all of 2009 and only beat one good team – Arizona (twice). That qualifies them as a crappy team, despite the 8-8 record and the fact that they only lost by 10 or more points twice. One of the best what ifs of the season: how different would things have been if San Fran hadn’t lost to Minnesota on the Favre-to-Lewis pseudo-hailmary in the closing seconds of week 3? San Fran would have had enough momentum to make a serious playoff run, and the Favre-Vikings lovefest wouldn’t have lasted three months and been so gosh darn annoying. At least this season gave us the return of Alex Smith and the emergence of Vernon Davis this year. That was fun. I will laugh at whomever drafts Davis in the sixth round next year assuming a repeat of this year’s Pro Bowl season. Ain’t gonna happen.
21. Denver Broncos.
Forget all about the 6-0 start. This is not the same team. That was a fluke. And I’m glad they fell apart, because Josh McDaniels is a cocky dude and I never liked him from the beginning. All you need to know about Denver is that prior to their ultra-important game against the Chargers in week 11, McDaniels was trash-talking the Chargers players right before kick-off, shouting “We own you!” over and over. Then San Diego went ahead and kicked the crap out of them, 32-3. That’s the season in a microcosm.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars.
One of my preseason picks to make the AFC Playoffs, the Jags were in good shape a few weeks ago when they were 7-5; now they’re 7-8 and need a miracle to make it in. They’ve had a very mediocre season, which is better than most people thought they would do. For the most part, they’ve beaten the bad teams and lost to the good teams, and with the level of talent they have, that’s all you can ask of them. Garrard is about as mediocre a quarterback as there has ever been; he ranks 18th in QB rating, 16th in completion percentage, 15th in yards per game, and 16th in yards per attempt. Excruciatingly average.
19. Atlanta Falcons.
Another candidate for Most Disappointing Team, Atlanta was the consensus favorite to win the NFC South this year. Nothing they could do to stop the Saints from going 13-0, but they could have at least stayed competitive in the wildcard race. Hard to pinpoint what happened to them. Gonzalez contributed, Roddy White was great, Turner was good. The offense was expected to produce and for the most part, it did. It just wasn’t quite enough. Matt Ryan made too many mistakes and degressed in just about every statistic from a year ago: he dropped in TDs, yards and completion percentage while his INTs went up. The defense made some major steps backwards as well. Allowing Michael Vick to come into Atlanta and score two touchdowns must have been devastating for the Falcon faithful. They have my sympathies.
The “Frisky But Flawed”
18. Miami Dolphins.
It was a foregone conclusion that the Fins wouldn’t win the AFC East a second straight year, but they did all they could to keep it interesting. They smoked the Jets twice. Beat the Pats once. Stayed competitive despite losing Pennington early and Ronnie Brown midseason. Played hard on defense despite starting rookies at both cornerback positions. They probably did more with less talent than any other team this year, and recovered from an 0-3 start and will finish either 7-9 or 8-8. Jake Long had another Pro Bowl year at left tackle. The Wildcat was just as perplexing as it was last year. Good for Miami for competing week in and week out. They have a chance to end Pittsburgh’s season on Sunday and I certainly wish them the best.
17. Carolina Panthers.
It was really the tale of two season for the Carolina Panthers in 2009: 4-7 with Jake Delhomme and his 18 interceptions, and 3-1 with Matt Moore, with the lone loss being at New England. They are a team, like Oakland, that would have fared much better if they had made the quarterback switch much earlier in the season. The running game was consistently solid and the defense was better than people realized. They actually had the fourth best defense against the pass, thanks in large part to a rejuvenated Julius Peppers who racked up 11 sacks and 5 forced fumbles despite constant double teams. The real problem all season was Delhomme, who may have garnered more ‘boos’ than any single player in the NFL. His numbers are staggeringly bad, and it makes it even worse that Moore played so well in his four starts: 7 TDs, 1 INT and a QB rating of over 100.
16. New York Giants.
After a blistering 5-0 start in which they completely destroyed everyone they played, New York fizzled out to an 8-8 finish (possibly 9-7 if they beat the Vikings), thanks to injuries on the defense and Eli on the offense. Remember when I spent the entire offseason making fun of Eli Manning, calling him ‘Dopey” and saying that despite the fluke Super Bowl run he still wasn’t a top 20 NFL QB? For five weeks he made me eat my words and I had almost turned the corner and became a believer, and then … Three straight games with a QB rating of less than 62. He didn’t have a horrid season, in fact his overall numbers look pretty decent. But costly turnovers and a mediocre completion percentage plagued the offense. As for the G-men’s defense, things went downhill as soon as Antonio Pierce went down with a neck injury in week 9. For all the hype about the Giants’ superior depth on defense, they seemed unable to replace Pierce from that point on and failed to make the playoffs. This whole season proved what I’ve been saying all along: if the Giants QB was named Eli Jones, he would be an average guy in the group of Garrard-Campbell-Orton and people would be saying “How did they win a Super Bowl with that guy?” Instead, he’s doing Oreos commercials with Donald Trump.
15. Tennessee Titans.
As unbelievable a season as Chris Johnson has had through 15 games (1872 rushing yards, 483 receiving yards, 14 TDs and a psycho YPG of 5.8) the Titans have suffered all season from an inadequate passing attack, especially in the first six games of the season – all losses. It was the same story we saw last year with Minnesota. Vince Young’s improbable return to glory and five-game winning streak was fun, but ultimately 0-6 proved to be too big a hole to climb out of. If they hadn’t played Indy and San Diego they might be 9-6 right now with a great shot at the playoffs. But they did play those teams and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. Maybe next season they’ll go after Brett Favre …
“The Playoff Darkhorses”
14. New York Jets.
Back in August, I summarized the Jets season by saying this: “Idiot Coach + Rookie QB + a few stud players + difficult division = 7-9 season.” Well, it’s either going to be 8-8 or 9-7, but my synopsis was still pretty accurate. And the Jets probably would be 7-8 right now if the Colts hadn’t forfeited last week’s match. Not too many teams have a 1-6 stretch (with the one win being Oakland) and still make the playoffs, but that what the Jets are poised to do. But the real story about the Jets this season, and one that’s gone largely unnoticed, has been the dominance of the defense, especially Darelle Revis. Does it surprise you that the Jets have the best defense in the NFL in terms of both points and yards allowed? Per game, they give up 20 less passing yards than any other team. Assuming they win the finale against Cincinnati and squeeze into the playoffs, I wouldn’t count them out. Any team that can run the ball and play defense is a threat, even with a rookie QB. The Ravens made the AFC Championship last year with Flacco. Revis will be covering either Moss or Ochocinco in round one, and either way he’ll make a big difference. But ultimately, yeah, Sanchez is probably going to screw this up.
13. Cincinnati Bengals.
The worst division-winning team, Cincinnati played its best football from about week 6 to 12, and has been average ever since. Remember they should have won week 1 if not for that crazy Brandon Stokey play, and that would have given them a 5-0 start. They key to the season was obviously the 6-0 record in the AFC North, including four huge wins over the Steelers and Ravens. That’s what won them the division and landed them in the playoffs. As a matter of fact, if Troy Polamalu doesn’t get injured and miss the two Bengals-Steelers games, Cincinnati probably isn’t in the playoffs.
A lot of the discussion this year was about the “resurgence” of Cedric Benson’s career, but that’s a point I’d to contend. Yes, through week 7 he was leading the NFL in rushing yards and was a fantasy darling. But look at what he really did this season: scored only 6 touchdowns, caught only 17 passes, and worst of all, averaged a measly 4.2 yards per carry. That’s simply not a good average, especially for someone who carried the ball more than 300 times. Of all the backs who rushed for 1,000 yards, Benson had the worst average per carry, and the amazing thing is that I typed that before even checking to make sure it was true. And sure enough, it was. The guy stinks; he stunk in college, he stunk with Chicago, and he still stinks. He’s the primary reason why I don’t like Cincy’s chances in the playoffs regardless of who they play.
12. Houston Texans.
Just like last year, Houston had an explosive offense, a middle-of-the-road defense, and a .500 record. Well, if they lose to New England on Sunday they’ll be 8-8 - for the third straight season. But, they’ll probably win on Sunday, because it sounds like the Pats are keeping Brady, Moss and Welker on the bench. So that's good luck for Houston, and it’ll be 9-7 and a possible playoff berth (depending on the fortunes of the Jets and Ravens). Not too much difference between this season and the past two; Schaub still throws for a ton of yards and has a terrible hair cut; the running game is still in random shambles; Andre Johnson is still a beast who draws no attention to himself; Mario Williams continues to rack up sacks (his third straight year with at least 8, and you know he’s getting double teamed every snap); and the secondary still, after a consistent decade of being the teams’ primary weakness, can’t stop anybody. They are the perennial team that everyone loves to peg as a sleeper, and slowly but surely, they are getting better. I think…
11. Baltimore Ravens.
Their task is simple: beat the Raiders, make the playoffs. And I probably should wait until Monday to post these rankings, because if they lose to the Raiders they lose my respect and drop down to the “Frisky/Flawed” division with the Dolphins, Panthers and Co. But if they beat the Raiders, they’re a team no one wants to face in the playoffs. They have what it takes to play postseason football: great coach, great running game, and leadership – in the form of Ray Lewis. My only concern is Flacco. His statistics improved in every way from a year ago (more than can be said for his counterpart, Matt Ryan), but I still don’t trust him. I watched enough Baltimore games this year to see glaring inconsistencies in his game and a tendency to make costly mistakes. Also, those eyebrows are just brutal. Seriously, you earn $30 million dollars (plus endorsements from Reebok and Pizza Hut) and you can’t afford to have your eyebrows waxed?! It only costs like twelve bucks. Uh… not that I would know …
10. Dallas Cowboys.
This season can be summarized in just two words: Miles. Austin. What began as a ho-hum season and a lethargic offense was changed forever in week 5 at Kansas City, when a Roy Williams injury stuck Austin in the starting lineup for his first NFL start, and 250 magical receiving yards later the Cowboys had found the deep threat they so desperately needed. (Sorry to sound so cheesy, but that’s really what happened.) Austin went on to have a Pro Bowl year despite missing the first four games, and in my opinion is a top 10 MVP candidate because of the way he saved the Cowboys’ season and made them a 10 win team. He probably saved both Romo and Wade Phillips’ jobs for at least another season. He made the front office look like geniuses, even though they are the same buffoons who experimented with TO, Pacman and Tank, as well as the almost equally inane Roy Williams. Austin might be the best receiver in the NFL at picking up yards after the catch (it’s either him or Brandon Marshall) and for a guy out of Monmouth College to miss the first four games and still lead the NFC in receiving yards is pretty freaking incredible. Great story. I love Miles Austin. And not to switch gears completely, but unfortunately, I don’t think Dallas and their cutely-dimpled quarterback have much of a chance in the playoffs. The NFC is too solid.
“The Super Darkhorse” / “The Team That I Hate”
9. Pittsburgh Steelers.
Let me start by saying this: I hate the Steelers, their fans and their players. And everything about them. Okay, now that I’ve got that out of the way … they really scare me. I mean, they dropped 5 straight games, plummeted down to 6-7, and STILL might make the playoffs. It would require a win and quite a bit of help, but until it’s a mathematical impossibility, I cannot rest. And if they do make the playoffs, that will give Troy Polamalu just enough time to recover back to 100%, and if that happens, then God help us all. We’ve seen what they can do in the postseason. In 2005 they won the Super Bowl after an 8-8 record and the 6th seed. They’re a bunch of lucky bastards. All the breaks go their way. And I hate to ever say this, but they really are a good team. Better than Dallas, Baltimore, Cincinnati or a few other playoff teams. Roethlisberger knows how to win, no matter how ugly and stupid and dastardly he is. And that defense is dominant when Polamalu is on the field. And Tomlin’s a great coach. He really is. And they know how to win on the road, which they’d have to do if they did sneak into the playoffs. Oh man. I just can’t bear to watch those idiots fans celebrate another undeserved Super Bowl. I can’t talk about this anymore …..
“Deserving Playoff Teams, But Lacking Something”
8. Green Bay Packers.
When Aaron Kampman and Al Harris both suffered season-ending injuries in the same game, I thought the Packers season was over. But the defense has actually held its own, and honestly they haven't had to do much thanks to a crazy good season from Aaron Rodgers. He’s a guy who really doesn’t get the credit he should, and is another top 10 MVP candidate in my mind. (In fact, I’ll list my top 10 at the bottom of the Power Poll if you’re interested.) Rodgers finished in the top 5 in both passing yards and touchdowns, and threw only 7 interceptions – the fewest of any starting QB. He progresses through his reads and finds the open receiver better and faster than any quarterback other than Brees. He spreads the ball around brilliantly. They run with Ryan Grant just enough to keep defenses honest. That offense is a machine. It’s like the Philly/Indy/New Orleans offenses, but with one flaw: the offensive line. And that’s a big flaw. 50 sacks allowed is the most in the NFL, and Rodgers has been rattled enough times that he can’t be considered a safe QB in the playoffs. He might be one sack away from “Screw This, I’m Going Gunslinger” mode, and thus dooming the Packers.
7. Arizona Cardinals
Well, looks like the Super Bowl losers finally broke the curse. Something like 9 of the past 10 SB losers did not make it back to the playoffs the following year, but Zona is headed for either 10-6 or 11-5, thanks in large part to a cakewalk division. Can they repeat last year’s magic? I certainly doubt it, but I’ve been a doubter all season and they’ve proved me wrong before. There’s nothing special or mysterious about them: they pass the ball like crazy (third in passing attempts), run the ball sparingly (fourth least rushing attempts) and play average at best defense (18th against the run, 22nd against the pass). But you have to respect a team that makes no secret about its gameplan, and says “Yeah, Warner is going to throw to Boldin and Fitzgerald fifty times. Try to stop us.” And they are tough to stop. But Warner is prone to giant stinkbombs and when he throws 2 or more picks they’re 0-4. The NFC is much better than it was a year ago, and a trip back to the Super Bowl is less than likely for Cards.
“The Prideful But Dangerous”
6. New England Patriots.
I can guarantee you that no one wants to play against Tom Brady in the playoffs, even if this season has been far below his expectations. His playoff record is 14-3, the second best percentage of all-time. (The only one better: Bart Starr, 9-1). They seemed to play half-hearted throughout most of the regular season, reminiscent of an NBA team that knows they are playoff-bound and is just saving up energy. That’s risky in the 16-game NFL season, but New England did just enough to clinch the AFC East and now just has to focus. They can beat anybody. They can also lose to anybody if they’re lazy enough. There’s nothing else to say about them. Except that if Wes Welker can somehow catch 22 passes in week 17 he will break the single-season record. I wouldn’t put it past Belichick to try.
“The Team Nobody Wants To Win The Super Bowl, Not Even Vikings Fans”
5. Minnesota Vikings.
Why not? Because the world might spontaneously explode from all of the Brett Favre love and boyish charm and people saying the phrase "he's like a kid out there." I can’t take anymore of this. None of us can. Even Marc Dykstra wants you to retire. Please, Brett, just leave our lives forever. Incidentally, a few Vikings-related things have gone largely unnoticed because of the overwhelming Favre-mania this season: one, Adrian Peterson’s YPC dropped to a modest 4.4 and his fumbling problems actually made him a liability; two, Jared Allen is the most dominant pass rusher in the NFL and is virtually unblockable; three, what used to be the Vikings’ biggest weakness is now one of their biggest strengths, and I’m not talking about quarterback play. I’m talking about the wide receivers. Rice, Harvin and Berrian are as dynamic a threesome as there is in the league.
“The Super Contenders”
4. New Orleans Saints.
I’m actually not that worried about the current 0-2 slump they’re in (which could EASILY be an 0-4 slump). I’m worried enough to drop them below the Eagles and Chargers, but not so worried to say they can’t win the Super Bowl. Losing to Tampa in week 16 might be just the wake-up call they needed. Then again, Drew Brees and Sean Payton have very little playoff experience between the two of them. Then again, they do have home-field advantage throughout. Then again … Well I don’t know. Let’s just say they’re fourth in the Power Poll and move on.
3. Philadelphia Eagles.
The facts: they’ve won six straight games, scored at least 24 in each of them, and have the third highest scoring offense in the NFL. They also have a top five defense in terms of sacks, interceptions, and yards allowed. People don’t love to talk about the boring old Eagles, but NFL purists like myself recognize the Super quality they have to score fast and hold on to a lead. They can run the ball to keep a lead; they can throw the ball if they’re down. That’s huge. You can’t say the same for Indy, New Orleans or New England. They have studs all over the defense and a coach/quarterback combo who have been to 12 playoff games together. And here’s an interesting factoid that I can pretty much guarantee you did not know: Donovan McNabb is the least intercepted quarterback of ALL TIME in terms of INTs per attempt, at right around 2.12%.
2. San Diego Chargers.
Started 2-3. Won 10 straight. They have everything. Tons of motivation. Star quarterback. Explosive offense. Major X-factor (Darren Sproles). Slightly-past-his-prime veteran to dedicate the playoff run to (LT). Decent defense – they certainly aren’t great, but they’re not a liability. My main concern is Norv Turner. His face is just weird looking.
“The Favorite”
1. Indianapolis Colts.
It’s been their season from the beginning. This is Manning’s year. And I sort of have the feeling that he won’t be stopped. Which leads me to …
My 2009 Offensive MVP Top 10
1. Peyton Manning (also deserves consideration for Coach of the Year)
2. Drew Brees
3. Chris Johnson
4. Phillip Rivers
5. DeSean Jackson
6. Brett Favre
7. Miles Austin
8. Aaron Rodgers
9. Ray Rice
10. Maurice Jones-Drew
(Honorable Mention: Matt Schaub, Steven Jackson, Wes Welker)
Defensive MVP
1. Jared Allen
2. Darelle Revis
3. Charles Woodson
4. Darren Sharper
5. Elvis Dumervil
Thank you for reading this and have a great 2010!
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Monday, December 28, 2009
week 16 results ...
Not a great week for me...
I picked the Titans to upset the Chargers and San Diego destroyed them, effectively kicking Tennessee out of the playoffs, ending Chris Johnson's MVP hopes and crushing the "From 0-6 to the Playoffs" storyline that we were all cheering for. San Diego is sort of the bully of the NFL that no one likes. It would be fitting if they eliminate Indy in the playoffs.
Picked the Colts and Saints and missed both games. Whatever. It's week 16. You never know what's going to happen. Although losing two straight is not a good omen for New Orleans. Losing to Dallas was a wake up call. Losing to Tampa is embarassing. And don't forget that they were a missed 33 yard field goal from losing to Wasington in week 13. Now they have to go play the hottest team in the NFC next week (Carolina) and might be missing Pierre Thomas. Not looking good for the Saints, who just might finish the season at 13-3 after a 13-0 start.
I also picked the Pats-Jags game incorrectly. That was a simple case of letting my emotions get the best of me. Having Brady as my fantasy QB in two leagues led me to become extremely frustrated with the Patriots inconsistent offense, and that clouded my judgment in what should have been an easy game to pick. Perhaps we shouldn't bet against New England in the playoffs. Defense be damned, I don't think anyone can stop the Moss/Welker combo and Maroney is finally running the ball well. New England just might be a potential sleeper in the playoffs. Weird.
Also missed the Panthers-Giants and the Texans-Dolphins, both of which I knew would be tough calls. The best story in those two games was the excellent play of Matt Moore, who might be a starting QB to keep an eye on next season. If John Fox had replaced Delhomme in week 3 instead of week 13, they might be looking at a Wildcard spot.
The rest of the games were pretty easy. I knew Pittsburgh would end up beating Baltimore, even though Baltimore outplayed them by a lot and the refs gave the game to the idiot Steelers about fifteen times. Pittsburgh is now gearing up for a playoff run and a healthy Troy Polamalu makes them the team no one wants to face. I hate life.
Cincy was barely able to beat KC, and I think we all know that they (Cincy) will be the easiest team to beat in the playoffs. Atlanta kicked the crap out of Buffalo, Green Bay brutally murdered Seattle, and Cleveland ran the ball 46 times against the uninspired Raiders, who committed 13 penalties.
The Cards and Niners easily beat the Rams and Lions, respectively, and the Eagles won their six straight behind another outstanding performance from McNabb. Dallas easily beat the Redskins, who have blatantly stopped trying, and tonight's Vikings-Bears game is such a foregone conclusion that I'm counting it as a win.
Making me 10-6 for this week ...
And ... after an 11-5 week 15 ...
Overall: 158-78.
I picked the Titans to upset the Chargers and San Diego destroyed them, effectively kicking Tennessee out of the playoffs, ending Chris Johnson's MVP hopes and crushing the "From 0-6 to the Playoffs" storyline that we were all cheering for. San Diego is sort of the bully of the NFL that no one likes. It would be fitting if they eliminate Indy in the playoffs.
Picked the Colts and Saints and missed both games. Whatever. It's week 16. You never know what's going to happen. Although losing two straight is not a good omen for New Orleans. Losing to Dallas was a wake up call. Losing to Tampa is embarassing. And don't forget that they were a missed 33 yard field goal from losing to Wasington in week 13. Now they have to go play the hottest team in the NFC next week (Carolina) and might be missing Pierre Thomas. Not looking good for the Saints, who just might finish the season at 13-3 after a 13-0 start.
I also picked the Pats-Jags game incorrectly. That was a simple case of letting my emotions get the best of me. Having Brady as my fantasy QB in two leagues led me to become extremely frustrated with the Patriots inconsistent offense, and that clouded my judgment in what should have been an easy game to pick. Perhaps we shouldn't bet against New England in the playoffs. Defense be damned, I don't think anyone can stop the Moss/Welker combo and Maroney is finally running the ball well. New England just might be a potential sleeper in the playoffs. Weird.
Also missed the Panthers-Giants and the Texans-Dolphins, both of which I knew would be tough calls. The best story in those two games was the excellent play of Matt Moore, who might be a starting QB to keep an eye on next season. If John Fox had replaced Delhomme in week 3 instead of week 13, they might be looking at a Wildcard spot.
The rest of the games were pretty easy. I knew Pittsburgh would end up beating Baltimore, even though Baltimore outplayed them by a lot and the refs gave the game to the idiot Steelers about fifteen times. Pittsburgh is now gearing up for a playoff run and a healthy Troy Polamalu makes them the team no one wants to face. I hate life.
Cincy was barely able to beat KC, and I think we all know that they (Cincy) will be the easiest team to beat in the playoffs. Atlanta kicked the crap out of Buffalo, Green Bay brutally murdered Seattle, and Cleveland ran the ball 46 times against the uninspired Raiders, who committed 13 penalties.
The Cards and Niners easily beat the Rams and Lions, respectively, and the Eagles won their six straight behind another outstanding performance from McNabb. Dallas easily beat the Redskins, who have blatantly stopped trying, and tonight's Vikings-Bears game is such a foregone conclusion that I'm counting it as a win.
Making me 10-6 for this week ...
And ... after an 11-5 week 15 ...
Overall: 158-78.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
christmas eve picks
Hey everyone. Hope you enjoyed my preview of LOST: Season Six. I realize it was a bit lacking of many major details (as Andy helped to point out) and I probably should rewatch the previous seasons before Feb. 2nd rolls around. I'm currently watching Season One of Heroes to pass the time in the middle of the night when Jack decides to cry and it is pretty good - not half as good as LOST, but intriguing. The babe is doing well, and tomorrow is Christmas!
Here are my Week 16 picks ...
Friday
San Diego @ Tennessee
Huge game for both teams. The Bolts are playing for a first round bye, while the Titans are playing to stay alive. Over the past eight weeks, these teams have lost a combined one game, and that was against the Colts. I don’t think either team’s defense can stop either team’s offense. Home-field is the difference and I’ll pick the Titans.
Sunday:
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
The Saints’ goal in this game is to have Drew Brees resting comfortably on the sideline by halftime with a 20+ lead. Scoring shouldn’t be a problem. The defense just has to not allow Tampa not keep pace. I like the Saints but only by about 10.
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Humongous game in terms of the AFC Wildcard. Baltimore needs a win and they’re in. Last time these teams met, Dennis Dixon started at QB and the Ravens barely won, at home. Now they’re in Pittsburgh, with Roethlisberger healthy, and possibly Polamalu back in the lineup, which would be huge. This game is going to be ALL Steelers. In fact, I’d make this my Guarantee of the Week, if I had such a thing.
Kansas City @ Cincinnati
Third times the charm for the Bengals to clinch the AFC North. KC is putrid on the road, and Ochocinco is a lock for at least 150 yards against this suspect secondary. Who’d of thunk that Cincy would be in the 2010 playoffs?
Jacksonville @ New England
You know what, I’m sick of the Patriots. Every week I look at them on the schedule against some crummy team like Buffalo or the Jets and pick them without even thinking. And every week they underachieve. They aren’t killing the crappy teams like they’re supposed to. Tom Brady simply isn’t playing like an elite QB this year. Other than that 59-0 blowout against the Titans, he hasn’t had an A+ game all season. Come playoff time, they better step their game up or they’re not going to win one game. Believe it or not, I’m picking the Jags here. They need the win more, and I don’t think New England can stop Jones-Drew. If you asked me to sum up the 2009 version of Brady, Belichick and the Pats in one word, it would be this: hubris. They are no longer my favorite AFC team either. I don’t know who is, but it’s not them. Sorry Crazy Keith. Jags by 4.
Buffalo @ Atlanta
I can’t think of a single reason to pick Buffalo, so … I guess I’ll take Atlanta.
Carolina @ NY Giants
Ah yes, the classic battle of Steve Smiths.
Actually, these may have been the two most impressive teams last weekend. Carolina ran the ball all over Minnesota’s unmoveable defensive line, and Julius Peppers gave new meaning to the term ‘dominance.’ Then on Monday night the Giants shellacked the Redskins and made it look much more than easy. Eli Manning was unstoppable and the running game finally got going. So who wins this one? Every logical argument says to pick New York: they’re at home, they’re sill in the playoff picture so they have something to play for, and they’re just better. But hold on. The Panthers are still playing for something too. Peppers is still playing for big money, and Matt Moore is still trying to earn a starting job. And Steve Smith, (the Carolina one), who by the way gave one of the stupid and most embarrassing post-game interviews of all time last week, is still out to prove that he’s an elite wide receiver. I like Carolina to make this game interesting and New York to choke a little bit. But I’m still picking New York, in a close one, thanks to a Matt Moore mistake, by 3.
Houston @ Miami
This just looks like one of those games I know I’m going to pick wrong. I hate both these teams. I’ll take Miami at home. Argh.
Seattle @ Green Bay
Let’s see… Seattle’s atrocious secondary against Rodgers and his many aerial weapons. At Lambeau. In a must-win for Green Bay. I’ll go with the Pack by ... I don't know, 24?
Oakland @ Cleveland
I don't know about you, but I can't wait to watch Derek Anderson duke it out with Charlie Frye. Seriously though, the Raiders have made themselves interesting in the last few weeks by beating contenders like Pittsburgh and Denver. And now they're prime for a major letdown and loss to the lowly Browns, thus proving that they are indeed ... still the Raiders. Can you believe whoever wins this game will be on a two-game winning streak? I like Jerome Harrison to have another monster game and Cleveland to win by a healthy margin.
St. Louis @ Arizona
Cardinals by a million.
Detroit @ San Francisco
49ers by five billion.
By the way, with Matt Stafford on IR, Jim Schwartz now has to decide who will start at QB for the remaining two games of the season. And surprise, surprise, he is keeping the decision a secret until Sunday. What the hell does he think he is accomplishing by keeping secrets in week 16? We are 2-13! San Fran doesn't give a crap who our quarterback is! It's obvious that Stanton should be given a chance, considering he outplayed Culpepper a-million-to-one last week and we spent a second round pick on him a few years ago. Daunte is clearly not a winner. I think 0-16 proved that. Give Stanton a chance. Not that it matters...)
Denver @ Philadelphia
Tough test for the Eagles here against an embarrassed Denver team that just lost to Oakland and now really, really needs to win. Westbrook might be back in the lineup, which in my opinion just makes things confusing at this point. Why mess with a good thing? McCoy wasn’t playing awesome, but he wasn’t hurting anything. The key matchup here is DeSean Jackson against Champ Bailey, which on the surface looks like an advantage for the Broncos. But I’m not really an ‘on the surface’ kind of guy. I actually think DeSean rises to the occasion and kicks Champ’s butt for a couple long scores. Truthfully, the only reason I want to pick Denver is because if they win, it makes it harder for Pittsburgh to make the playoffs. That’s not a good enough reason. I gotta stick with the Eagles.
NY Jets @ Indianapolis
Colts win again. By 7. But Revis should shut down Reggie Wayne and force Peyton Manning to utilize other options. Which should be no problem whatsoever for this year's MVP.
Dallas @ Washington
I'll take the Cowboys. While I don't really feel good about picking them in December, I can't take the Redskins after watching them last weekend. Did you see that "fake" field goal at the end of the first half, AKA the single worst football play I have ever seen? Was that Jim Zorn giving Dan Snyder the metaphorical middle finger? I think it was.
Monday Night:
Minnesota @ Chicago
Favre and Cutler are both notoriously lousy in primetime games and in cold weather. This should be a smashmouth game in snowy weather, and the advantage there has to go to Adrian Peterson and the Vikes.
Merry Christmas to all. And to all, Ndamukong Suh.
Here are my Week 16 picks ...
Friday
San Diego @ Tennessee
Huge game for both teams. The Bolts are playing for a first round bye, while the Titans are playing to stay alive. Over the past eight weeks, these teams have lost a combined one game, and that was against the Colts. I don’t think either team’s defense can stop either team’s offense. Home-field is the difference and I’ll pick the Titans.
Sunday:
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
The Saints’ goal in this game is to have Drew Brees resting comfortably on the sideline by halftime with a 20+ lead. Scoring shouldn’t be a problem. The defense just has to not allow Tampa not keep pace. I like the Saints but only by about 10.
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Humongous game in terms of the AFC Wildcard. Baltimore needs a win and they’re in. Last time these teams met, Dennis Dixon started at QB and the Ravens barely won, at home. Now they’re in Pittsburgh, with Roethlisberger healthy, and possibly Polamalu back in the lineup, which would be huge. This game is going to be ALL Steelers. In fact, I’d make this my Guarantee of the Week, if I had such a thing.
Kansas City @ Cincinnati
Third times the charm for the Bengals to clinch the AFC North. KC is putrid on the road, and Ochocinco is a lock for at least 150 yards against this suspect secondary. Who’d of thunk that Cincy would be in the 2010 playoffs?
Jacksonville @ New England
You know what, I’m sick of the Patriots. Every week I look at them on the schedule against some crummy team like Buffalo or the Jets and pick them without even thinking. And every week they underachieve. They aren’t killing the crappy teams like they’re supposed to. Tom Brady simply isn’t playing like an elite QB this year. Other than that 59-0 blowout against the Titans, he hasn’t had an A+ game all season. Come playoff time, they better step their game up or they’re not going to win one game. Believe it or not, I’m picking the Jags here. They need the win more, and I don’t think New England can stop Jones-Drew. If you asked me to sum up the 2009 version of Brady, Belichick and the Pats in one word, it would be this: hubris. They are no longer my favorite AFC team either. I don’t know who is, but it’s not them. Sorry Crazy Keith. Jags by 4.
Buffalo @ Atlanta
I can’t think of a single reason to pick Buffalo, so … I guess I’ll take Atlanta.
Carolina @ NY Giants
Ah yes, the classic battle of Steve Smiths.
Actually, these may have been the two most impressive teams last weekend. Carolina ran the ball all over Minnesota’s unmoveable defensive line, and Julius Peppers gave new meaning to the term ‘dominance.’ Then on Monday night the Giants shellacked the Redskins and made it look much more than easy. Eli Manning was unstoppable and the running game finally got going. So who wins this one? Every logical argument says to pick New York: they’re at home, they’re sill in the playoff picture so they have something to play for, and they’re just better. But hold on. The Panthers are still playing for something too. Peppers is still playing for big money, and Matt Moore is still trying to earn a starting job. And Steve Smith, (the Carolina one), who by the way gave one of the stupid and most embarrassing post-game interviews of all time last week, is still out to prove that he’s an elite wide receiver. I like Carolina to make this game interesting and New York to choke a little bit. But I’m still picking New York, in a close one, thanks to a Matt Moore mistake, by 3.
Houston @ Miami
This just looks like one of those games I know I’m going to pick wrong. I hate both these teams. I’ll take Miami at home. Argh.
Seattle @ Green Bay
Let’s see… Seattle’s atrocious secondary against Rodgers and his many aerial weapons. At Lambeau. In a must-win for Green Bay. I’ll go with the Pack by ... I don't know, 24?
Oakland @ Cleveland
I don't know about you, but I can't wait to watch Derek Anderson duke it out with Charlie Frye. Seriously though, the Raiders have made themselves interesting in the last few weeks by beating contenders like Pittsburgh and Denver. And now they're prime for a major letdown and loss to the lowly Browns, thus proving that they are indeed ... still the Raiders. Can you believe whoever wins this game will be on a two-game winning streak? I like Jerome Harrison to have another monster game and Cleveland to win by a healthy margin.
St. Louis @ Arizona
Cardinals by a million.
Detroit @ San Francisco
49ers by five billion.
By the way, with Matt Stafford on IR, Jim Schwartz now has to decide who will start at QB for the remaining two games of the season. And surprise, surprise, he is keeping the decision a secret until Sunday. What the hell does he think he is accomplishing by keeping secrets in week 16? We are 2-13! San Fran doesn't give a crap who our quarterback is! It's obvious that Stanton should be given a chance, considering he outplayed Culpepper a-million-to-one last week and we spent a second round pick on him a few years ago. Daunte is clearly not a winner. I think 0-16 proved that. Give Stanton a chance. Not that it matters...)
Denver @ Philadelphia
Tough test for the Eagles here against an embarrassed Denver team that just lost to Oakland and now really, really needs to win. Westbrook might be back in the lineup, which in my opinion just makes things confusing at this point. Why mess with a good thing? McCoy wasn’t playing awesome, but he wasn’t hurting anything. The key matchup here is DeSean Jackson against Champ Bailey, which on the surface looks like an advantage for the Broncos. But I’m not really an ‘on the surface’ kind of guy. I actually think DeSean rises to the occasion and kicks Champ’s butt for a couple long scores. Truthfully, the only reason I want to pick Denver is because if they win, it makes it harder for Pittsburgh to make the playoffs. That’s not a good enough reason. I gotta stick with the Eagles.
NY Jets @ Indianapolis
Colts win again. By 7. But Revis should shut down Reggie Wayne and force Peyton Manning to utilize other options. Which should be no problem whatsoever for this year's MVP.
Dallas @ Washington
I'll take the Cowboys. While I don't really feel good about picking them in December, I can't take the Redskins after watching them last weekend. Did you see that "fake" field goal at the end of the first half, AKA the single worst football play I have ever seen? Was that Jim Zorn giving Dan Snyder the metaphorical middle finger? I think it was.
Monday Night:
Minnesota @ Chicago
Favre and Cutler are both notoriously lousy in primetime games and in cold weather. This should be a smashmouth game in snowy weather, and the advantage there has to go to Adrian Peterson and the Vikes.
Merry Christmas to all. And to all, Ndamukong Suh.
Friday, December 18, 2009
In Anticipation of LOST: Season Six
So when we last saw our lovable Losties, it was 1977 and the end of season five. Juliet detonated the hydrogen bomb, the screen turn white, and then … LOST. Meanwhile, well not really meanwhile, but in 2007, it was reveled that John Locke was actually some creepy dude possessing Locke’s body; all we know about that creepy dude is that he is very old (at least 150 years), he hates Jacob with a fiery passion, and he may or may not be the black smoke monster. And now he’s in Locke’s bald body, doing crazy things in a very confident way, culminating with the ‘loophole’ death of Jacob, who was stabbed by the emotionally fragile psychopath, Ben Linus.
Major questions as we head into season six include:
-What happened to the 1977 folks? Did they jump to 2007?
-Is Jacob really dead? What about Sayid? Any chance Juliet survived?
-What are Richard and Co. going to do now that they know that Locke is not Locke?
-And a related question, what’s the deal with Alana, Bram, and their friends?
-Who the heck IS the creepy dude in Locke’s body, and besides wanting to kill Jacob, what is his deal?
-WHO is coming? (Remember, Jacob’s last words before being kicked into the fire were “they’re coming.”
There are a lot of other questions, too many to count really, but things like Claire’s whereabouts and Desmond’s destiny will be answered as we go. For now, the show has finally boiled down into a simple conflict: Jacob against the creepy dude. And as it seems, good versus evil. As Locke explained to Walt in the season one pilot episode: “There are two sides. One is light. The other is dark.” And now, we FINALLY know who the two sides are. We thought it was the Losties and the Others … then we thought it was Ben and Widmore … but now I’m about 99% sure it is Jacob and …. well the only problem is, we still don’t know what the antagonist’s name is.
Frankly, I think it was too bold of a move for the writers of LOST to introduce a major, revolutionary, plot-shifting character in season five’s finale and not even give him a name. Lost fanatics like myself have spent the better part of a year highly curious about this dude who is completely nameless, calling him stupid monikers like Anti-Jacob and Black Shirt Guy. I saw one blog that refers to him as Esau (Jacob’s brother in Genesis). Other blogs call him ‘Dark’ and there is an unconfirmed rumor that his name will be Samuel. But how hard would it have been for Jacob to simply say, “Hello there Peter” and clear things up immensely. Is it really such a big cliffhanger, just waiting to hear the character’s name? Unless his name is Smokie or Island or Jack Shepherd, I’m going to be disappointed. My prediction: Julius. No reason why. It just seems right.
(If you don’t think this guy is as big of a plot-changer as I do, I’ll explain all that in a few paragraphs.)
Anyway, to answer the questions I posed earlier, I do not believe that any of our questionable characters are indeed dead. That includes the stabbed-and-burned Jacob, the bullet-wounded Sayid, and even the fallen-from-a-cliff-and-exploded-by-a-hydrogen-bomb Juliet. But when it comes to the strangled-and-sitting-in-a-casket character formerly known as John Locke, I fear he has been told what he can’t do for the last time. I just don’t see how the show can resurrect him at this point. If it does happen, I think it will happen in closing minutes of the series finale, in the very last scene of LOST. That would be pretty cool actually. But I don’t see Locke having a major part this season. The actor who plays Locke, though, (that would be the vastly talented Terry O’Quinn), should have a pretty busy season.
(Sidenote: I recently watched a 99 cent Blockbuster movie called Primal Fear, starring Richard Gere and Edward Norton. It was a pretty decent flick with a cool twist at the end, but the best part was watching a mustachioed O’Quinn play the hard-ass prosecuting lawyer.)
As a general rule in LOST, main characters survive the most unlikely of circumstances, while minor characters die like lemmings. Jin stood on a freighter when it exploded and was presumed dead for months, but he was just floating around harmlessly on a piece of debris. Locke fell out of a six-story window and was shot point-blank in the chest. Nothing. Charlie was hung from a tree. Desmond was shot. Little Ben was shot. Sayid was shot (by Elsa). They all survived. Heck, all these people were on an airplane that crash landed on a beach and they all lived. We have to believe the most optimistic scenario possible. Sayid, Juliet, Jacob … don’t count any of them out.
As to what happens to the Losties in the past, the most presumable explanation is that the bomb explosion catapults them into the future, back to ‘their present time,’ back to 2007. Thus, the answer to “who is coming?” could be Jack, Sawyer and the crew. That seems like them most logical explanation. This being the final season of LOST, I don’t think the Powers That Be will risk sending Jack and Co. back into some other time or playing around with the time travel angle anymore. They did whatever the island wanted them to do, and set about the events, or the Incident, exactly like they were supposed to. Whatever happened, happened, and now that their destiny is achieved, it’s back to 2007 for all of them. It makes perfect sense; Pierre Chang lost his arm (as we knew he would), and now Radzinsky will kill himself in the hatch, leaving Kelvin alone until 2001, when Des shows up and takes over the button-pushing. Meanwhile Ben and the Others purge Dharma, polar bears run wild for 25 years (you’d think they would have reproduced?) and Danielle Rousseau sets booby traps all over the place and goes insane. Then the plane crashes in 2004, with several of our Losties completely unaware that they inhabited this island three decades ago.
If our 70s folks did indeed travel back to 2007, we can expect season six to begin with the long-awaited reunion of Sun and Jin, who spent all of season five trying to find each other. This also puts Jack smack-dab in the middle of the Good-Evil conflict along with Richard, Ben, Jacob and the Creepy Dude inside Locke. All the folks who have been living in the past for three years (Sawyer, Jin, Miles and maybe Juliet, depending on if she survived) along with the members of the Oceanic Six who rode Ajira 316 into the past (Jack, Kate, Hurley, and Sayid) will be reunited with the guys who crashed 316 and landed in 2007, (Frank, Ben and Sun), as well as Richard and all of the Others, and of course, Jacob and his nemesis. Confused yet?
It really gets interesting when Desmond, Penny and their son (who’s name, interestingly enough, is Charles Widmore) are entered into the equation, along with Penny’s dad, the original Charles Widmore, who still feels that he is the rightful leader of the Others and is closer than ever to finding the island. Claire and Christian Shepherd are still floating around somewhere, and there’s two other wildcard characters who may still have a major role to play: Walt, and Aaron. Both of them were described as ‘Special” in season one, and that’s not a term that’s tossed around lightly in LOST. My apprehension with Walt is that his inferior acting skills and general annoyingness will keep him from making a Season Six appearance, but there’s no question that Aaron will be important to the story, somehow.
What about Daniel Faraday and his red-headed love, Charlotte Lewis? Any more backstory on them now that they are both deceased? Sadly, I don’t think so, even though there’s a lot more to learn about them. The same goes for Rousseau, who’s mysterious story was partially told and has now come to an end I believe. What about Libby? Is her story closed? Will LOST’s most nagging mystery ever be revealed or will the writers continue to avoid the unmistakable fact that Libby was spying on Hurley in the mental institute before the crash AND gave Desmond a free sailboat so that he could ‘race around the world?’ Three seasons ago, it appeared Libby was an agent of Charles Widmore and she seemed to be the most obvious hint that somehow someone knew flight 815 was going to crash. Now that we know about the time travel capabilities of the island and we’ve seen Jacob mingling around in everyone’s lives, Libby’s story seems less important. But still, they need to say something about her, don’t they?
Will we ever hear from Eloise Hawking again? What about Rose and Bernard and Vincent? Does anyone care? I for one would be more than okay with putting all the time-travel to bed for good and focusing on the nitty gritty conflict resolution. This is the final season after all. There’s no time to waste (pun intended). This season is all about Jack, Jacob, and the destiny of the island.
Which brings me back to Julius. Or Esau. Or whatever you want to call him. I propose that he is in fact the central antagonist in all of LOST, and a character that will change everything we think we know about the show. Let’s look at the facts: right now he is inhabiting John Locke’s body, speaking and acting exactly like John Locke. How do we know it’s him? For one, because we saw Locke dead in the casket. And two, because Jacob says to him “You found your loophole,” a response to Esau’s comment 150 years ago: “One of these days, sooner or later, I’m going to find a loophole my friend.” That scene, which opened season five’s finale in what is believed to be 1845 (the year the Black Rock was launched), is the most important scene in the entirety of LOST, in my humble opinion. I’ll discuss the scene and the conversation in a minute. But back to Esay’s ability to inhabit Locke’s body. First of all, that’s a pretty impressive trick. Pretty superhuman. Think of all the times in LOST we’ve seen somebody appear to be alive on the island who was presumably either dead or off the island. Christian Shepherd. Walt. Kate’s horse. Boone. Ben’s mom. Walt again. And the most important one: Eko’s brother, who manifests into the black smoke monster right before Eko’s eyes and then pummels him to death.
We know almost indefinitely that the black smoke monster has the ability to manifest itself as characters, especially but not always characters who are dead and their corpses are on the Island. We saw that with both Christian and Yemi (Eko’s brother). We’ve seen the smoke monster taking photos of people’s thought and reading their minds. Remember when Ben went into the temple to “be judged,” and the monster turned into Alex and brought up all sorts of horrible memories from Ben’s tragic life? The smoke monster, which still remains the show’s greatest enigma, is capable of becoming people and knowing them inside and out, to the point where it can successfully make people think someone is still alive who is in fact dead. This makes Locke the perfect candidate. We’ve seen the monster, also called Cerebus, uproot tries, go in and out of holes, and drag people across the ground. Sometimes it attacks viciously; sometimes it just observes. It seems to be a being of higher intelligence and purpose, not merely a random killing machine.
In my mind, it seems almost 100% evident that Jacob’s nemesis, the man from that pivotal opening scene, is the man behind the monster. All this time we’ve been asking “What is the monster?” when perhaps we should have asked, “Who?”
Think about the other mysterious happenings in LOST. There are visions and hallucinations that have been partially explained by apparitions of the smoke monster, but what about all the dreams? Claire, Locke, Eko, Hurley, Charlie, Boone and others have had dreams that seemed too real to be dreams, and ended up being more like prophesies. What about the whispers, which have been heard dozens of times and seem to be from voices from within the island, saying things like “He’s coming. They’re here. Who is that?” The whispers have always been the one clue that, in my mind, makes the Island itself an actual character in the story and more than just a location. Is it possible that Esau (or whatever his freaking name is) is behind not just the monster, but the dreams, and the whispers? It’s entirely possible. I mean, the guy is at least 150 years old, so let’s not put it past him. Remember, this show has become science fiction and no longer needs to make sense.
Okay, so let’s move back to the conversation that has haunted my thoughts for months. It went a little something like this:
JACOB: Good Morning.
ENEMY: Morning. Mind if I join you?
JACOB: Please Want some fish?
ENEMY: No thank you. I just ate (Stares ominously into space).
JACOB: I take it you're here because of the ship.
ENEMY: I am. How did they find the Island?
JACOB: We’ll have to ask them when they get here.
ENEMY: I don't have to ask. You brought them here. Still trying to prove me wrong, aren't you?
JACOB: You are wrong.
ENEMY: Am I? They come. They fight. They destroy. They corrupt. It always ends the same.
JACOB: It only ends once. Anything that happens before that … is just progress.
ENEMY: (pause) Do you have any idea how badly I want to kill you?
JACOB: Yes.
ENEMY: One of these days, sooner or later... I'm going to find a loophole, my friend.
JACOB: Well, when you do, I'll be right here.
ENEMY: Always nice talking to you Jacob.
JACOB: Nice talking to you too.
First of all, what a creepy thing to say to somebody: “Do you have any idea how badly I want to kill you?” Gives me shivers. Second, I love how they are so polite to each other and call each other “friend.” It’s brilliant. It remins me of Professor X and Magneto.
To clear up a few details, the ship is almost undeniably the Black Rock. It looks like the Black Rock. It has to be the Black Rock. Which makes this sometime in the late 1840s. Also, we see Jacob living inside the four-toed statue of the Egyptian goddess Tawaret (the goddess of fertility –also translates to ‘He/She who is great’). Remember, when asked “What lies in the shadow of the statue?”, Richard replied in Latin: “He who will save us all.” That’s Jacob. He was living in the statue in 1850, and there he is again, in 2007. Pretending to live in that crappy cabin for all this time, when there he was, chilling in a four-toed foot statue for two hundred years. What a rascal.
Back to the conversation these two fellows had on the beach. The key arguments seems to be about the nature of humanity. Whether people can be trusted. “They come. They fight. They destroy. They corrupt.” Those are the words of our black-shirted, scruffy-faced antagonist, who is angry at Jacob for “bringing” the ship to the Island. “It always ends the same,” he says. Jacob retorts by saying “It only ends once, anything that happens before that is just progress.” Boom! Jacob totally thumps him with superior wisdom. Jacob is a deep dude. The condensed point is this: Jacob believes in humanity. He thinks they are worth having around. The other guy does not. He is pissed about the ship. He sees humanity as an inconvenience. (I don’t know about you, but I’m offended by this.) And therein lies the rub.
So what are these guys, if not human? A popular theory says they are angels. Angel of death, angel of life, something like that. That seems possible. Others believe they are simply supernatural immortal beings who like to play God and use the Island as their personal domain. That makes sense too. I prefer to think that Jacob is simply Jacob and not some sort of mythological god or angel, but nothing would really surprise me on that regard. I have no idea about Jacob’s nemesis because we don’t have much data to build a solid theory around, but at this point I am about 94% sure that he is the black smoke monster, with a loose understanding of the word is. Did he create the monster? Did the monster create him? The fact that he wears a dark shirt and has dark hair support this idea, but the most obvious evidence is seeing him reside in Locke’s body like we’ve seen the monster do many times. The monster also showed a unique interest in Locke from the beginning. Could this be why? Did he know that John Locke was easily used and tricked into thinking he was special, when in reality he (and Ben too) were just pawns in a much larger game being played by larger figures?
Another theory that I don’t have a problem with is that Jacob and his enemy are brothers, hence the many folks who call the enemy Esau. I don’t hate this theory, but I don’t think it's correct. I also think it’s reasonable to believe that they are both at least as old as the Egyptian empire, which would be several thousand years. The island is absolute steeped with references to ancient Egypt.
Now let’s discuss the “loophole.” Obviously, we don’t know what this ‘rule’ is that doesn’t allow Jacob to be killed, but we can guess. It seems to me that neither character can be killed or die from natural causes, and also that they are unable to kill each other. Otherwise the Dark fellow would have killed Jacob himself. Instead, he becomes Locke, in order to manipulate Ben to kill Jacob. Perhaps the loophole is that Jacob must be killed by the leader of his own people? Or maybe it’s more simply, and he only has to be killed by a living human? My question is this: who made these rules? Is there a higher power? Did they make the rules together? Was there a time before they hated each other, when they lived peacefully together?
In season six, I hope and expect to find answers to these questions. I hope they reveal the origins of Richard Albert, and I suspect to see him aboard the Black Rock. I hope they reveal the origins of the Others, who may be descendants of the B.R., or may be indigenous Islanders, or may have some other derivation. I hope to learn about Jacob and his lists and his motivation and his connection with Richard. When Richard was asked why he never seems to die, his reply: “Jacob made me like this.” I want to learn more about Jacob’s enemy, starting with his name, and his origins, and his connection with Cerberus and the Island and the Others, as I said earlier, what his deal is.
But let’s step back for a second and remember something: this is still a show about 48 people who survived a plane crash on an island. The show began with Jack Shepherd, and it’s going to end with Jack Shepherd. We’ve been invested in these characters, in Sawyer’s personal struggles, in Sun and Jin’s marriage, in Kate’s commitment issues, in Sayid’s many romances, and Hurley’s mental health. Season six will still be about these people. Carlton and Damon (the producers) have shown us repeatedly that they’re not afraid to kill off main characters, even beloved characters like Charlie and Mr. Eko. This being the final season, I think everyone except for Jack is on the chopping block. It’s going to be epic. February 2nd can’t come fast enough.
And that’s enough on LOST for now. If you have any specific thoughts, questions or comments, please leave them below. If you don’t watch LOST, sorry I just ruined it for you, but you deserve it for not watching the greatest show of all time.
Major questions as we head into season six include:
-What happened to the 1977 folks? Did they jump to 2007?
-Is Jacob really dead? What about Sayid? Any chance Juliet survived?
-What are Richard and Co. going to do now that they know that Locke is not Locke?
-And a related question, what’s the deal with Alana, Bram, and their friends?
-Who the heck IS the creepy dude in Locke’s body, and besides wanting to kill Jacob, what is his deal?
-WHO is coming? (Remember, Jacob’s last words before being kicked into the fire were “they’re coming.”
There are a lot of other questions, too many to count really, but things like Claire’s whereabouts and Desmond’s destiny will be answered as we go. For now, the show has finally boiled down into a simple conflict: Jacob against the creepy dude. And as it seems, good versus evil. As Locke explained to Walt in the season one pilot episode: “There are two sides. One is light. The other is dark.” And now, we FINALLY know who the two sides are. We thought it was the Losties and the Others … then we thought it was Ben and Widmore … but now I’m about 99% sure it is Jacob and …. well the only problem is, we still don’t know what the antagonist’s name is.
Frankly, I think it was too bold of a move for the writers of LOST to introduce a major, revolutionary, plot-shifting character in season five’s finale and not even give him a name. Lost fanatics like myself have spent the better part of a year highly curious about this dude who is completely nameless, calling him stupid monikers like Anti-Jacob and Black Shirt Guy. I saw one blog that refers to him as Esau (Jacob’s brother in Genesis). Other blogs call him ‘Dark’ and there is an unconfirmed rumor that his name will be Samuel. But how hard would it have been for Jacob to simply say, “Hello there Peter” and clear things up immensely. Is it really such a big cliffhanger, just waiting to hear the character’s name? Unless his name is Smokie or Island or Jack Shepherd, I’m going to be disappointed. My prediction: Julius. No reason why. It just seems right.
(If you don’t think this guy is as big of a plot-changer as I do, I’ll explain all that in a few paragraphs.)
Anyway, to answer the questions I posed earlier, I do not believe that any of our questionable characters are indeed dead. That includes the stabbed-and-burned Jacob, the bullet-wounded Sayid, and even the fallen-from-a-cliff-and-exploded-by-a-hydrogen-bomb Juliet. But when it comes to the strangled-and-sitting-in-a-casket character formerly known as John Locke, I fear he has been told what he can’t do for the last time. I just don’t see how the show can resurrect him at this point. If it does happen, I think it will happen in closing minutes of the series finale, in the very last scene of LOST. That would be pretty cool actually. But I don’t see Locke having a major part this season. The actor who plays Locke, though, (that would be the vastly talented Terry O’Quinn), should have a pretty busy season.
(Sidenote: I recently watched a 99 cent Blockbuster movie called Primal Fear, starring Richard Gere and Edward Norton. It was a pretty decent flick with a cool twist at the end, but the best part was watching a mustachioed O’Quinn play the hard-ass prosecuting lawyer.)
As a general rule in LOST, main characters survive the most unlikely of circumstances, while minor characters die like lemmings. Jin stood on a freighter when it exploded and was presumed dead for months, but he was just floating around harmlessly on a piece of debris. Locke fell out of a six-story window and was shot point-blank in the chest. Nothing. Charlie was hung from a tree. Desmond was shot. Little Ben was shot. Sayid was shot (by Elsa). They all survived. Heck, all these people were on an airplane that crash landed on a beach and they all lived. We have to believe the most optimistic scenario possible. Sayid, Juliet, Jacob … don’t count any of them out.
As to what happens to the Losties in the past, the most presumable explanation is that the bomb explosion catapults them into the future, back to ‘their present time,’ back to 2007. Thus, the answer to “who is coming?” could be Jack, Sawyer and the crew. That seems like them most logical explanation. This being the final season of LOST, I don’t think the Powers That Be will risk sending Jack and Co. back into some other time or playing around with the time travel angle anymore. They did whatever the island wanted them to do, and set about the events, or the Incident, exactly like they were supposed to. Whatever happened, happened, and now that their destiny is achieved, it’s back to 2007 for all of them. It makes perfect sense; Pierre Chang lost his arm (as we knew he would), and now Radzinsky will kill himself in the hatch, leaving Kelvin alone until 2001, when Des shows up and takes over the button-pushing. Meanwhile Ben and the Others purge Dharma, polar bears run wild for 25 years (you’d think they would have reproduced?) and Danielle Rousseau sets booby traps all over the place and goes insane. Then the plane crashes in 2004, with several of our Losties completely unaware that they inhabited this island three decades ago.
If our 70s folks did indeed travel back to 2007, we can expect season six to begin with the long-awaited reunion of Sun and Jin, who spent all of season five trying to find each other. This also puts Jack smack-dab in the middle of the Good-Evil conflict along with Richard, Ben, Jacob and the Creepy Dude inside Locke. All the folks who have been living in the past for three years (Sawyer, Jin, Miles and maybe Juliet, depending on if she survived) along with the members of the Oceanic Six who rode Ajira 316 into the past (Jack, Kate, Hurley, and Sayid) will be reunited with the guys who crashed 316 and landed in 2007, (Frank, Ben and Sun), as well as Richard and all of the Others, and of course, Jacob and his nemesis. Confused yet?
It really gets interesting when Desmond, Penny and their son (who’s name, interestingly enough, is Charles Widmore) are entered into the equation, along with Penny’s dad, the original Charles Widmore, who still feels that he is the rightful leader of the Others and is closer than ever to finding the island. Claire and Christian Shepherd are still floating around somewhere, and there’s two other wildcard characters who may still have a major role to play: Walt, and Aaron. Both of them were described as ‘Special” in season one, and that’s not a term that’s tossed around lightly in LOST. My apprehension with Walt is that his inferior acting skills and general annoyingness will keep him from making a Season Six appearance, but there’s no question that Aaron will be important to the story, somehow.
What about Daniel Faraday and his red-headed love, Charlotte Lewis? Any more backstory on them now that they are both deceased? Sadly, I don’t think so, even though there’s a lot more to learn about them. The same goes for Rousseau, who’s mysterious story was partially told and has now come to an end I believe. What about Libby? Is her story closed? Will LOST’s most nagging mystery ever be revealed or will the writers continue to avoid the unmistakable fact that Libby was spying on Hurley in the mental institute before the crash AND gave Desmond a free sailboat so that he could ‘race around the world?’ Three seasons ago, it appeared Libby was an agent of Charles Widmore and she seemed to be the most obvious hint that somehow someone knew flight 815 was going to crash. Now that we know about the time travel capabilities of the island and we’ve seen Jacob mingling around in everyone’s lives, Libby’s story seems less important. But still, they need to say something about her, don’t they?
Will we ever hear from Eloise Hawking again? What about Rose and Bernard and Vincent? Does anyone care? I for one would be more than okay with putting all the time-travel to bed for good and focusing on the nitty gritty conflict resolution. This is the final season after all. There’s no time to waste (pun intended). This season is all about Jack, Jacob, and the destiny of the island.
Which brings me back to Julius. Or Esau. Or whatever you want to call him. I propose that he is in fact the central antagonist in all of LOST, and a character that will change everything we think we know about the show. Let’s look at the facts: right now he is inhabiting John Locke’s body, speaking and acting exactly like John Locke. How do we know it’s him? For one, because we saw Locke dead in the casket. And two, because Jacob says to him “You found your loophole,” a response to Esau’s comment 150 years ago: “One of these days, sooner or later, I’m going to find a loophole my friend.” That scene, which opened season five’s finale in what is believed to be 1845 (the year the Black Rock was launched), is the most important scene in the entirety of LOST, in my humble opinion. I’ll discuss the scene and the conversation in a minute. But back to Esay’s ability to inhabit Locke’s body. First of all, that’s a pretty impressive trick. Pretty superhuman. Think of all the times in LOST we’ve seen somebody appear to be alive on the island who was presumably either dead or off the island. Christian Shepherd. Walt. Kate’s horse. Boone. Ben’s mom. Walt again. And the most important one: Eko’s brother, who manifests into the black smoke monster right before Eko’s eyes and then pummels him to death.
We know almost indefinitely that the black smoke monster has the ability to manifest itself as characters, especially but not always characters who are dead and their corpses are on the Island. We saw that with both Christian and Yemi (Eko’s brother). We’ve seen the smoke monster taking photos of people’s thought and reading their minds. Remember when Ben went into the temple to “be judged,” and the monster turned into Alex and brought up all sorts of horrible memories from Ben’s tragic life? The smoke monster, which still remains the show’s greatest enigma, is capable of becoming people and knowing them inside and out, to the point where it can successfully make people think someone is still alive who is in fact dead. This makes Locke the perfect candidate. We’ve seen the monster, also called Cerebus, uproot tries, go in and out of holes, and drag people across the ground. Sometimes it attacks viciously; sometimes it just observes. It seems to be a being of higher intelligence and purpose, not merely a random killing machine.
In my mind, it seems almost 100% evident that Jacob’s nemesis, the man from that pivotal opening scene, is the man behind the monster. All this time we’ve been asking “What is the monster?” when perhaps we should have asked, “Who?”
Think about the other mysterious happenings in LOST. There are visions and hallucinations that have been partially explained by apparitions of the smoke monster, but what about all the dreams? Claire, Locke, Eko, Hurley, Charlie, Boone and others have had dreams that seemed too real to be dreams, and ended up being more like prophesies. What about the whispers, which have been heard dozens of times and seem to be from voices from within the island, saying things like “He’s coming. They’re here. Who is that?” The whispers have always been the one clue that, in my mind, makes the Island itself an actual character in the story and more than just a location. Is it possible that Esau (or whatever his freaking name is) is behind not just the monster, but the dreams, and the whispers? It’s entirely possible. I mean, the guy is at least 150 years old, so let’s not put it past him. Remember, this show has become science fiction and no longer needs to make sense.
Okay, so let’s move back to the conversation that has haunted my thoughts for months. It went a little something like this:
JACOB: Good Morning.
ENEMY: Morning. Mind if I join you?
JACOB: Please Want some fish?
ENEMY: No thank you. I just ate (Stares ominously into space).
JACOB: I take it you're here because of the ship.
ENEMY: I am. How did they find the Island?
JACOB: We’ll have to ask them when they get here.
ENEMY: I don't have to ask. You brought them here. Still trying to prove me wrong, aren't you?
JACOB: You are wrong.
ENEMY: Am I? They come. They fight. They destroy. They corrupt. It always ends the same.
JACOB: It only ends once. Anything that happens before that … is just progress.
ENEMY: (pause) Do you have any idea how badly I want to kill you?
JACOB: Yes.
ENEMY: One of these days, sooner or later... I'm going to find a loophole, my friend.
JACOB: Well, when you do, I'll be right here.
ENEMY: Always nice talking to you Jacob.
JACOB: Nice talking to you too.
First of all, what a creepy thing to say to somebody: “Do you have any idea how badly I want to kill you?” Gives me shivers. Second, I love how they are so polite to each other and call each other “friend.” It’s brilliant. It remins me of Professor X and Magneto.
To clear up a few details, the ship is almost undeniably the Black Rock. It looks like the Black Rock. It has to be the Black Rock. Which makes this sometime in the late 1840s. Also, we see Jacob living inside the four-toed statue of the Egyptian goddess Tawaret (the goddess of fertility –also translates to ‘He/She who is great’). Remember, when asked “What lies in the shadow of the statue?”, Richard replied in Latin: “He who will save us all.” That’s Jacob. He was living in the statue in 1850, and there he is again, in 2007. Pretending to live in that crappy cabin for all this time, when there he was, chilling in a four-toed foot statue for two hundred years. What a rascal.
Back to the conversation these two fellows had on the beach. The key arguments seems to be about the nature of humanity. Whether people can be trusted. “They come. They fight. They destroy. They corrupt.” Those are the words of our black-shirted, scruffy-faced antagonist, who is angry at Jacob for “bringing” the ship to the Island. “It always ends the same,” he says. Jacob retorts by saying “It only ends once, anything that happens before that is just progress.” Boom! Jacob totally thumps him with superior wisdom. Jacob is a deep dude. The condensed point is this: Jacob believes in humanity. He thinks they are worth having around. The other guy does not. He is pissed about the ship. He sees humanity as an inconvenience. (I don’t know about you, but I’m offended by this.) And therein lies the rub.
So what are these guys, if not human? A popular theory says they are angels. Angel of death, angel of life, something like that. That seems possible. Others believe they are simply supernatural immortal beings who like to play God and use the Island as their personal domain. That makes sense too. I prefer to think that Jacob is simply Jacob and not some sort of mythological god or angel, but nothing would really surprise me on that regard. I have no idea about Jacob’s nemesis because we don’t have much data to build a solid theory around, but at this point I am about 94% sure that he is the black smoke monster, with a loose understanding of the word is. Did he create the monster? Did the monster create him? The fact that he wears a dark shirt and has dark hair support this idea, but the most obvious evidence is seeing him reside in Locke’s body like we’ve seen the monster do many times. The monster also showed a unique interest in Locke from the beginning. Could this be why? Did he know that John Locke was easily used and tricked into thinking he was special, when in reality he (and Ben too) were just pawns in a much larger game being played by larger figures?
Another theory that I don’t have a problem with is that Jacob and his enemy are brothers, hence the many folks who call the enemy Esau. I don’t hate this theory, but I don’t think it's correct. I also think it’s reasonable to believe that they are both at least as old as the Egyptian empire, which would be several thousand years. The island is absolute steeped with references to ancient Egypt.
Now let’s discuss the “loophole.” Obviously, we don’t know what this ‘rule’ is that doesn’t allow Jacob to be killed, but we can guess. It seems to me that neither character can be killed or die from natural causes, and also that they are unable to kill each other. Otherwise the Dark fellow would have killed Jacob himself. Instead, he becomes Locke, in order to manipulate Ben to kill Jacob. Perhaps the loophole is that Jacob must be killed by the leader of his own people? Or maybe it’s more simply, and he only has to be killed by a living human? My question is this: who made these rules? Is there a higher power? Did they make the rules together? Was there a time before they hated each other, when they lived peacefully together?
In season six, I hope and expect to find answers to these questions. I hope they reveal the origins of Richard Albert, and I suspect to see him aboard the Black Rock. I hope they reveal the origins of the Others, who may be descendants of the B.R., or may be indigenous Islanders, or may have some other derivation. I hope to learn about Jacob and his lists and his motivation and his connection with Richard. When Richard was asked why he never seems to die, his reply: “Jacob made me like this.” I want to learn more about Jacob’s enemy, starting with his name, and his origins, and his connection with Cerberus and the Island and the Others, as I said earlier, what his deal is.
But let’s step back for a second and remember something: this is still a show about 48 people who survived a plane crash on an island. The show began with Jack Shepherd, and it’s going to end with Jack Shepherd. We’ve been invested in these characters, in Sawyer’s personal struggles, in Sun and Jin’s marriage, in Kate’s commitment issues, in Sayid’s many romances, and Hurley’s mental health. Season six will still be about these people. Carlton and Damon (the producers) have shown us repeatedly that they’re not afraid to kill off main characters, even beloved characters like Charlie and Mr. Eko. This being the final season, I think everyone except for Jack is on the chopping block. It’s going to be epic. February 2nd can’t come fast enough.
And that’s enough on LOST for now. If you have any specific thoughts, questions or comments, please leave them below. If you don’t watch LOST, sorry I just ruined it for you, but you deserve it for not watching the greatest show of all time.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
week 15 quick picks
Week 15 picks
Thursday
Colts @ Jaguars
Sorry Jags, nobody is stopping Peyton this season. I’m fully convinced the Colts are going 16-0 and have a very good shot at 19-0. Indy by 18.
Saturday
Cowboys @ Saints
New Orleans is long overdue for their first loss of the season, and Dallas’s December woes are being blown way out of proportion. They’re playing good football, they’ve just run into two teams that they weren’t going to beat, regardless of the month. They know this. Roy Williams all but guaranteed a win over the Saints. Not that Roy should be saying anything since he might be their worse player, but the point is, Dallas isn’t just going to roll over. They’re confident. If this game was in Texas, or even at a neutral field, I’d pick the ‘Boys. I really would. But the Superdome has been the hardest stadium to play in this year, and Drew Brees continues to transform his game from ‘Statistical Machine’ to ‘Guy Who Wins Tough Games.’ Ever since I picked against the Saints in week two, I vowed not to pick against Brees until he lost. So I’ll take the Saints again. By 6.
Sunday
Cleveland @ Kansas City
Blah. I’ll take the Chiefs by 3.
Houston @ St. Louis
Upset special: I’ll take the Rams by 3.
Wait, scratch that. I’ll take Houston. What the heck was I thinking...
Atlanta @ NY Jets
Depends on the status of Matt Ryan … For now I’ll pick the Jets. Actually, I'll pick the Jets either way.
Miami @ Tennessee
I like the Titans to win big.
San Francisco @ Philadelphia
Eagles by 20.
New England @ Buffalo
Pats by 15. Division clinched.
Arizona @ Detroit
Cards by 35. Division clinched.
Chicago @ Baltimore
Ravens by 10.
Oakland @ Denver
Broncos by 28. (Charlie Frye is starting for Oakland)
Cincinnati @ San Diego
I really want to pick Cincy in the upset, but I don't think they have the secondary to slow down Rivers and his many weapons. Bolts win again. By 12.
Tampa Bay @ Seattle
Seattle wins but it’s closer than expected.
Green Bay @ Pittsburgh
Green Bay is red hot. Pittsburgh is ice cold (coming off consecutive loses to Oakland and Cleveland). I should pick Green Bay. But I'm picking Pitt at home. I think Green Bay is a little overrated right now. Steelers by 9.
Minnesota @ Carolina
Vikings clinch a first-round bye, win by 14.
Monday Night:NY Giants @ Washington
Upset special #3: I’ll take the Skins by 5.
Updated playoff picks:
Colts
Chargers
Patriots
Bengals
*Ravens
*Broncos
Saints
Vikings
Cardinals
Eagles
*Cowboys
*Packers
Updated MVP votes
-Offensive: Brees, Chris Johnson, Manning, Favre, Rivers. In that order.
-Defensive: Woodson, Allen, Sharper, Dumervil, Revis.
*EDIT**
2 things:
- I knew I should have picked the Cowboys!
- Chris Johnson moves ahead of Brees on my MVP ballot ... for now.
Thursday
Colts @ Jaguars
Sorry Jags, nobody is stopping Peyton this season. I’m fully convinced the Colts are going 16-0 and have a very good shot at 19-0. Indy by 18.
Saturday
Cowboys @ Saints
New Orleans is long overdue for their first loss of the season, and Dallas’s December woes are being blown way out of proportion. They’re playing good football, they’ve just run into two teams that they weren’t going to beat, regardless of the month. They know this. Roy Williams all but guaranteed a win over the Saints. Not that Roy should be saying anything since he might be their worse player, but the point is, Dallas isn’t just going to roll over. They’re confident. If this game was in Texas, or even at a neutral field, I’d pick the ‘Boys. I really would. But the Superdome has been the hardest stadium to play in this year, and Drew Brees continues to transform his game from ‘Statistical Machine’ to ‘Guy Who Wins Tough Games.’ Ever since I picked against the Saints in week two, I vowed not to pick against Brees until he lost. So I’ll take the Saints again. By 6.
Sunday
Cleveland @ Kansas City
Blah. I’ll take the Chiefs by 3.
Houston @ St. Louis
Upset special: I’ll take the Rams by 3.
Wait, scratch that. I’ll take Houston. What the heck was I thinking...
Atlanta @ NY Jets
Depends on the status of Matt Ryan … For now I’ll pick the Jets. Actually, I'll pick the Jets either way.
Miami @ Tennessee
I like the Titans to win big.
San Francisco @ Philadelphia
Eagles by 20.
New England @ Buffalo
Pats by 15. Division clinched.
Arizona @ Detroit
Cards by 35. Division clinched.
Chicago @ Baltimore
Ravens by 10.
Oakland @ Denver
Broncos by 28. (Charlie Frye is starting for Oakland)
Cincinnati @ San Diego
I really want to pick Cincy in the upset, but I don't think they have the secondary to slow down Rivers and his many weapons. Bolts win again. By 12.
Tampa Bay @ Seattle
Seattle wins but it’s closer than expected.
Green Bay @ Pittsburgh
Green Bay is red hot. Pittsburgh is ice cold (coming off consecutive loses to Oakland and Cleveland). I should pick Green Bay. But I'm picking Pitt at home. I think Green Bay is a little overrated right now. Steelers by 9.
Minnesota @ Carolina
Vikings clinch a first-round bye, win by 14.
Monday Night:NY Giants @ Washington
Upset special #3: I’ll take the Skins by 5.
Updated playoff picks:
Colts
Chargers
Patriots
Bengals
*Ravens
*Broncos
Saints
Vikings
Cardinals
Eagles
*Cowboys
*Packers
Updated MVP votes
-Offensive: Brees, Chris Johnson, Manning, Favre, Rivers. In that order.
-Defensive: Woodson, Allen, Sharper, Dumervil, Revis.
*EDIT**
2 things:
- I knew I should have picked the Cowboys!
- Chris Johnson moves ahead of Brees on my MVP ballot ... for now.
Monday, December 14, 2009
week 14 results
I had an absolute DYNAMITE week 14.
99.9% of America expected Pittsburgh to beat Cleveland, so I'm taking that loss with a grain of sand. Or salt. Or whatever. My only other loss on the week was Jacksonville @ Miami, which was a darn tricky game to project in the first place. The Jaguars have a rough case of schizophrenia. Other than that, I picked all 13 games correctly and the ... freaking Cardinals lost on monday night ...
this week: 13-3
overall: 137-67
With football season almost over, I'm working on a Season Six Preview for LOST and possibly some NBA stuff.
Go Lions.
99.9% of America expected Pittsburgh to beat Cleveland, so I'm taking that loss with a grain of sand. Or salt. Or whatever. My only other loss on the week was Jacksonville @ Miami, which was a darn tricky game to project in the first place. The Jaguars have a rough case of schizophrenia. Other than that, I picked all 13 games correctly and the ... freaking Cardinals lost on monday night ...
this week: 13-3
overall: 137-67
With football season almost over, I'm working on a Season Six Preview for LOST and possibly some NBA stuff.
Go Lions.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
picks - week 14
Thursday night
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
Them Stellers are 6-6 and have lost 4 straight; the Browns though are 1-11 and have lost seven straight. So make no mistake, Cleveland is the far inferior team. Their lone victory of the season was a 6 to 3 win in which they passed for 23 yards. They seem destined to pick #1 overall in the 2010 draft, and it will be interesting to see if they select a QB (Claussen perhaps?) or give Quinn another chance. Two of their remaining games are against KC and Oakland, however, so they could win another game or even two, and make the #1 overall pick an interesting battle. The Rams, Bucs and Lions should all finish 2-14 or worse, so the tiebreakers will probably come into play when determining draft order. (The first tie-breaker is strength of schedule.) I just hope the Lions don't end up #1 again, because we just cannot afford that financially. Unless we magically win the rest of our games and draft in the 7-12 range, Ndamukong Suh is the guy the Lions should hope to draft with a pick in the 3-5 range. Since St. Louis (and maybe Cleveland) will be looking for a franchise QB, I like our chances. If we can't land Suh, Gerald McCoy will be there and either way we'll have a great defensive lineman. That's our biggest need going into next season if you ask me. All we have to do is keep losing, and Suh is ours.
But it's too early to talk NFL Draft just yet ... as far as the Thursday night game goes, I'm picking Pittsburgh by just 10 points. It's a no-brainer game. Pittsburgh is super angry after getting embarassed by Oakland and their not going to let their incompetent rival beat them when their playoff hopes are on the line. But the fact that Pittsburgh is just 6-6 and soon to be 7-6 is absolutely hilarious to me. If Jacksonville can keep on winning, I would love to see Pittsburgh stay home for the playoffs, and all the stupid Steelers fans shut their stupid mouths and find something else to babble stupidly about. The Pittsburgh fan base is honestly just one big giant bandwagon; if they start to lose, 100% of the fans completely dissappear and forget they ever had a football team. It's pathetic and they definitely don't deserve the success they have had. Am I bitter? Yeah, maybe a little bit. But having lived in the City of Yellow for a few months, I can speak from experience in saying that there is nothing more stupid and annoying than a Pittsburgh Steelers fan.
Sunday Picks:
First, the Easy games...
New Orleans @ Atlanta
Saints by 13
This game has upset potential, but it also has Drew Brees against a lousy secondary.
Denver @ Indianapolis
Colts by 14
Peyton Manning won't admit it, but he wants to go 16-0 AND 19-0 for one simple reason: Tom Brady didn't.
Detroit @ Baltimore
Ravens by 28
It's going to be brutal, especially with Daunte Coldpepper in there.
Carolina @ New England
Patriots by 24
This should be an easy one for New England. Emphasis on should be.
St. Louis @ Tennessee
Titans by 14
Rams stink, and Chris Johnson does everything except stink.
Now for the toughies …
Seattle @ Houston
I like the Seahawks when they're at home and I usually dislike them on the road. I’ll take the Texans in a must-win, by 7.
Miami @ Jacksonville
As long as the Jags lead the Steelers in the wildcard race, they are my favorite AFC team. I am picking them to win solely because I really, really, really want them to win. Pittsburgh missing the playoffs would be the best thing that could happen for me in the 2009 season, short of Detroit making the playoffs. Go Jags!!
(P.S. I really do think Jacksonville will win, but only by 3)
Green Bay @ Chicago
Packers by 17. Jay Cutler is not a good quarterback, but he’s an even worse teammate. There have been a lot of Bears games on TV and I’ve seen his body language and huddle presence over the course of the season, and I’m convinced there isn’t a worse teammate in the NFL. Sure, guys like TO and Chad Johnson are locker-room poison, but they don’t touch the ball on every offensive snap. They don’t announce the plays in the huddle. They aren’t the de facto leaders of their teams. Cutler is. And he is worse than just a bad leader. He’s an anti-leader. He discourages and demeans his teammates just with his facial expressions. He is disinterested and often disgusted with the play of his wide receivers, even when the interception is his fault, which it almost always is. He continually blames his teammates with his posture and the rolling of his eyes. In his mind, he can do no wrong. But it’s becoming painfully clear to Bears fans that he is in fact not a good football player, and their future is in utter disarray. And that’s this week’s Jay Cutler rant. Packers by 17.
Cincinnati @ Minnesota
The Vikings are looking to rebound after a brutal loss in the desert. They have to get Peterson back on track and put the 'Brett Favre For MVP' agenda on the backburner. The Bengals haven’t played a decent team in a month and will be looking to prove they can compete with the elite teams of the NFL. This game is interesting; these teams have the two best rush defenses in the NFL in terms of yards allowed (technically Pittsburgh is #1, but that’s because they play half their games at muddy Heinz Field). Cincinnati has one of the highest run-to-pass ratios in the NFL, with a heavy emphasis on Cedric Benson. It's going to be extremely tough against Minnesota and the Williams Wall, and that should bring up a lot of 3rd and long situations for Carson Palmer. Antoine Winfield should be able to lockdown the sombrero wearing idiot named Chad and Jared Allen will have a lot of sack opportunities. When the Vikings have the ball, they can dictate what they want to do because they’re so balanced, and I expect them to have a lot of success against a pretty overrated Cincy defense. This one could get ugly. Vikings by 18.
Buffalo @ Kansas City
The Who Cares Game of the Week. I think the Bills are slightly better, but KC is pretty solid at Arrowhead. Whichever team can pass the ball effectively and get a couple of big plays will win this ugly slugfest. I like the Bills for that reason, because the Chief’s pass defense is horrid. But then again, Jamaal Charles is playing very well over the past four games, averaging about 5 yards a carry and the Bills have the worst rushing defense in the NFL. Can KC control the ball and grind out this game at home? I say no, because the Bills defense is better now than it was at the beginning of the season. I’ll stick with Buffalo in a close one, by 6. And that’s way too much thought given to this game.
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay
Ah yes, Josh Freeman against Mark Sanchez. Wait. Sanchez is out with a knee injury? Kellen Clemens, though, is a pretty good backup. He might actually be better than Sanchez. He gets his chance to prove himself against one of the NFL’s worst defenses, but expect the Jets to play it safe and run Thomas Jones extensively. The Bucs defense surrenders over 160 rushing yards per game. TJ will have a field day in this one. J-E-T-S Jets by 10.
Washington @ Oakland
I really don’t know what to make of this game. Last week, Oakland beat the defending champs and Washington came milliseconds from beating the Saints. But these are two of the most disorganized franchises in the NFL with the least motivated players. They may have hints of promise, but they lack the consistency and substance of good teams. That said, I like the Redskins in this game because they can stop the pass, and Oakland can’t run the ball. (Oakland can’t really pass the ball either, but you know). However, it’s never easy for east coast teams to travel to the west coast, even to play Oakland. Washington just has to focus and play their game and they’ll come away with a win. Skins by 5.
San Diego @ Dallas
Big game. Tough game to call. Can’t believe the Cowboys are favored to win. The Bolts have won seven straight. And it is December. If they lose, and then lose again next week at the Saints (which is quite likely), Dallas will have fallen from 8-3 to 8-6 and right out of the playoff picture. That will spell the end of Wade Phillips and bring up major questions about Tony Romo’s future. So needless to say, this is a huge game for Dallas. But you know what, it’s a huge game for San Diego too. They need to keep winning to hold off Denver. And right now, the Chargers are just the better team. I’ll take the Bolts by 7.
Philly @ New York Giants
The other huge game of the weekend. If the Giants win and Cowboys lose, we have three teams at 8-5 in the NFC East. That scenario sounds like a lot of fun. This is back to back home games for Big Blue, and their defense seems to be coming around again. Are they ready to face the Philly offense, who have too many weapons to cover? I don’t think they are. The Eagles should do well against Eli Manning, however, who is having his annual slump at a bad time for New York. I watched him last week against Dallas and he didn’t look great. New York’s going to need another big game from Jacobs to win this game. I don’t see it happening, Jacobs is a dud this year. Don’t look now, but the Eagles have won three straight and are peaking at the right time. I’ll take Philly by 5.
Arizona @ San Francisco
Monday night pits two NFC West rivals in a mostly meaningless game. Even if Arizona loses, the division is theirs unless they completely fall apart. But I don’t think Zona loses. Cards by 10.
*Edit: Cleveland won on Thursday. So although I got the pick wrong, I LOVED the game, for two reasons: one, Pittsburgh is almost certainly going to miss the playoffs (which is GREAT), and two, a Cleveland victory means a better chance at a higher draft pick for the Lions. I'm not giving up on Suh!
Go Lions!
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
Them Stellers are 6-6 and have lost 4 straight; the Browns though are 1-11 and have lost seven straight. So make no mistake, Cleveland is the far inferior team. Their lone victory of the season was a 6 to 3 win in which they passed for 23 yards. They seem destined to pick #1 overall in the 2010 draft, and it will be interesting to see if they select a QB (Claussen perhaps?) or give Quinn another chance. Two of their remaining games are against KC and Oakland, however, so they could win another game or even two, and make the #1 overall pick an interesting battle. The Rams, Bucs and Lions should all finish 2-14 or worse, so the tiebreakers will probably come into play when determining draft order. (The first tie-breaker is strength of schedule.) I just hope the Lions don't end up #1 again, because we just cannot afford that financially. Unless we magically win the rest of our games and draft in the 7-12 range, Ndamukong Suh is the guy the Lions should hope to draft with a pick in the 3-5 range. Since St. Louis (and maybe Cleveland) will be looking for a franchise QB, I like our chances. If we can't land Suh, Gerald McCoy will be there and either way we'll have a great defensive lineman. That's our biggest need going into next season if you ask me. All we have to do is keep losing, and Suh is ours.
But it's too early to talk NFL Draft just yet ... as far as the Thursday night game goes, I'm picking Pittsburgh by just 10 points. It's a no-brainer game. Pittsburgh is super angry after getting embarassed by Oakland and their not going to let their incompetent rival beat them when their playoff hopes are on the line. But the fact that Pittsburgh is just 6-6 and soon to be 7-6 is absolutely hilarious to me. If Jacksonville can keep on winning, I would love to see Pittsburgh stay home for the playoffs, and all the stupid Steelers fans shut their stupid mouths and find something else to babble stupidly about. The Pittsburgh fan base is honestly just one big giant bandwagon; if they start to lose, 100% of the fans completely dissappear and forget they ever had a football team. It's pathetic and they definitely don't deserve the success they have had. Am I bitter? Yeah, maybe a little bit. But having lived in the City of Yellow for a few months, I can speak from experience in saying that there is nothing more stupid and annoying than a Pittsburgh Steelers fan.
Sunday Picks:
First, the Easy games...
New Orleans @ Atlanta
Saints by 13
This game has upset potential, but it also has Drew Brees against a lousy secondary.
Denver @ Indianapolis
Colts by 14
Peyton Manning won't admit it, but he wants to go 16-0 AND 19-0 for one simple reason: Tom Brady didn't.
Detroit @ Baltimore
Ravens by 28
It's going to be brutal, especially with Daunte Coldpepper in there.
Carolina @ New England
Patriots by 24
This should be an easy one for New England. Emphasis on should be.
St. Louis @ Tennessee
Titans by 14
Rams stink, and Chris Johnson does everything except stink.
Now for the toughies …
Seattle @ Houston
I like the Seahawks when they're at home and I usually dislike them on the road. I’ll take the Texans in a must-win, by 7.
Miami @ Jacksonville
As long as the Jags lead the Steelers in the wildcard race, they are my favorite AFC team. I am picking them to win solely because I really, really, really want them to win. Pittsburgh missing the playoffs would be the best thing that could happen for me in the 2009 season, short of Detroit making the playoffs. Go Jags!!
(P.S. I really do think Jacksonville will win, but only by 3)
Green Bay @ Chicago
Packers by 17. Jay Cutler is not a good quarterback, but he’s an even worse teammate. There have been a lot of Bears games on TV and I’ve seen his body language and huddle presence over the course of the season, and I’m convinced there isn’t a worse teammate in the NFL. Sure, guys like TO and Chad Johnson are locker-room poison, but they don’t touch the ball on every offensive snap. They don’t announce the plays in the huddle. They aren’t the de facto leaders of their teams. Cutler is. And he is worse than just a bad leader. He’s an anti-leader. He discourages and demeans his teammates just with his facial expressions. He is disinterested and often disgusted with the play of his wide receivers, even when the interception is his fault, which it almost always is. He continually blames his teammates with his posture and the rolling of his eyes. In his mind, he can do no wrong. But it’s becoming painfully clear to Bears fans that he is in fact not a good football player, and their future is in utter disarray. And that’s this week’s Jay Cutler rant. Packers by 17.
Cincinnati @ Minnesota
The Vikings are looking to rebound after a brutal loss in the desert. They have to get Peterson back on track and put the 'Brett Favre For MVP' agenda on the backburner. The Bengals haven’t played a decent team in a month and will be looking to prove they can compete with the elite teams of the NFL. This game is interesting; these teams have the two best rush defenses in the NFL in terms of yards allowed (technically Pittsburgh is #1, but that’s because they play half their games at muddy Heinz Field). Cincinnati has one of the highest run-to-pass ratios in the NFL, with a heavy emphasis on Cedric Benson. It's going to be extremely tough against Minnesota and the Williams Wall, and that should bring up a lot of 3rd and long situations for Carson Palmer. Antoine Winfield should be able to lockdown the sombrero wearing idiot named Chad and Jared Allen will have a lot of sack opportunities. When the Vikings have the ball, they can dictate what they want to do because they’re so balanced, and I expect them to have a lot of success against a pretty overrated Cincy defense. This one could get ugly. Vikings by 18.
Buffalo @ Kansas City
The Who Cares Game of the Week. I think the Bills are slightly better, but KC is pretty solid at Arrowhead. Whichever team can pass the ball effectively and get a couple of big plays will win this ugly slugfest. I like the Bills for that reason, because the Chief’s pass defense is horrid. But then again, Jamaal Charles is playing very well over the past four games, averaging about 5 yards a carry and the Bills have the worst rushing defense in the NFL. Can KC control the ball and grind out this game at home? I say no, because the Bills defense is better now than it was at the beginning of the season. I’ll stick with Buffalo in a close one, by 6. And that’s way too much thought given to this game.
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay
Ah yes, Josh Freeman against Mark Sanchez. Wait. Sanchez is out with a knee injury? Kellen Clemens, though, is a pretty good backup. He might actually be better than Sanchez. He gets his chance to prove himself against one of the NFL’s worst defenses, but expect the Jets to play it safe and run Thomas Jones extensively. The Bucs defense surrenders over 160 rushing yards per game. TJ will have a field day in this one. J-E-T-S Jets by 10.
Washington @ Oakland
I really don’t know what to make of this game. Last week, Oakland beat the defending champs and Washington came milliseconds from beating the Saints. But these are two of the most disorganized franchises in the NFL with the least motivated players. They may have hints of promise, but they lack the consistency and substance of good teams. That said, I like the Redskins in this game because they can stop the pass, and Oakland can’t run the ball. (Oakland can’t really pass the ball either, but you know). However, it’s never easy for east coast teams to travel to the west coast, even to play Oakland. Washington just has to focus and play their game and they’ll come away with a win. Skins by 5.
San Diego @ Dallas
Big game. Tough game to call. Can’t believe the Cowboys are favored to win. The Bolts have won seven straight. And it is December. If they lose, and then lose again next week at the Saints (which is quite likely), Dallas will have fallen from 8-3 to 8-6 and right out of the playoff picture. That will spell the end of Wade Phillips and bring up major questions about Tony Romo’s future. So needless to say, this is a huge game for Dallas. But you know what, it’s a huge game for San Diego too. They need to keep winning to hold off Denver. And right now, the Chargers are just the better team. I’ll take the Bolts by 7.
Philly @ New York Giants
The other huge game of the weekend. If the Giants win and Cowboys lose, we have three teams at 8-5 in the NFC East. That scenario sounds like a lot of fun. This is back to back home games for Big Blue, and their defense seems to be coming around again. Are they ready to face the Philly offense, who have too many weapons to cover? I don’t think they are. The Eagles should do well against Eli Manning, however, who is having his annual slump at a bad time for New York. I watched him last week against Dallas and he didn’t look great. New York’s going to need another big game from Jacobs to win this game. I don’t see it happening, Jacobs is a dud this year. Don’t look now, but the Eagles have won three straight and are peaking at the right time. I’ll take Philly by 5.
Arizona @ San Francisco
Monday night pits two NFC West rivals in a mostly meaningless game. Even if Arizona loses, the division is theirs unless they completely fall apart. But I don’t think Zona loses. Cards by 10.
*Edit: Cleveland won on Thursday. So although I got the pick wrong, I LOVED the game, for two reasons: one, Pittsburgh is almost certainly going to miss the playoffs (which is GREAT), and two, a Cleveland victory means a better chance at a higher draft pick for the Lions. I'm not giving up on Suh!
Go Lions!
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
BABY
I had a baby yesterday. His name is Jack Isaiah Morgan - he is 6 lbs. 9 oz. and gorgeous and wonderful. See pictures on facebook.
As for week 13, there were two huge surprises: Oakland beat Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh, and New England lost to Miami in the classic case of one team wanting it more than the other. Neither of these games were foreseeable in the least, so that explains two of my picks. Other than those, I missed the Bears-Rams game (stupid) and the Thursday nighter. 12-4 is solid though. I totally nailed the Giants, Colts, Cardinals and Packers games, probably the four biggest games of the weekend. The most impressive team of the week was probably the Redskins, who came ever so close to beating the 12-0 Saints. If Shaun Suisham can make a 23 yard field goal, the Saints are no longer undefeated. (EDIT* I just read that the Redskins have cut Suisham and signed some rookie kicker. Hah). The Colts have had their share of luck, and so now have the Saints. I won't consider either of these teams better than the '07 Patriots for that reason. Unless they win the Super Bowl.
I'm happy with 12-4, which makes me ..... 124 - 64 on the season.
As for week 13, there were two huge surprises: Oakland beat Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh, and New England lost to Miami in the classic case of one team wanting it more than the other. Neither of these games were foreseeable in the least, so that explains two of my picks. Other than those, I missed the Bears-Rams game (stupid) and the Thursday nighter. 12-4 is solid though. I totally nailed the Giants, Colts, Cardinals and Packers games, probably the four biggest games of the weekend. The most impressive team of the week was probably the Redskins, who came ever so close to beating the 12-0 Saints. If Shaun Suisham can make a 23 yard field goal, the Saints are no longer undefeated. (EDIT* I just read that the Redskins have cut Suisham and signed some rookie kicker. Hah). The Colts have had their share of luck, and so now have the Saints. I won't consider either of these teams better than the '07 Patriots for that reason. Unless they win the Super Bowl.
I'm happy with 12-4, which makes me ..... 124 - 64 on the season.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Week 13 picks
Thursday night special ...
Jets @ Bills in Toronto
These Toronto games are always obnoxious. TO has been really clicking lately with Ryan Fitzpatrick and actually gave him a compliment recently, saying that the Harvard grad can throw the long ball better than Trent Edwards and he enjoys playing with him. After Darelle Revis completely shuts TO down in this game, he'll be singing a different tune. The Bills are going to need to rely on their other offensive weapons. Buffalo's defense was phenomenal last week against Miami, forcing turnovers, racking up sacks and winning the game single-handedly. I like their chances to stup (mix between stuff and stop, it was a typo but i decided to leave it) the run and force the Jets to pass, which essentially puts this game in the hands of Mark Sanchez. So really this pick comes down to the question: how far has Sanchez come in his rookie year, and can he be relied on to not just manage the game, but win the game? My opinion: Sanchez is improving, but he still has a lot of work to do. Since the Jets 3-0 start, his numbers haven't improved; his completion percentage hovers around 55% most weeks and his INTs almost double his TDs, even despite the team trading for Braylon Edwards and giving him a #1 target. Last time Mark played the Bills, he threw 5 picks and had a QB rating of 8.3, so he can't possibly do any worse. He may be looking for revenge, but it won't come very easy. I like the Bills to eek this one out by running the ball, controlling the clock and forcing Sanchez to make mistakes. But I wouldn't bet on it. Bills by 4.
Early Sunday games
Philly @ Atlanta
Got to pick the Eagles in this one; even if Matt Ryan were healthy it would still be a Philly pick because Ryan hasn’t been very good over the past 6 games or so. But Chris Redman will have a real tough time against the aggressive Eagles blitzes, and Asante Samuel is playing as well as any cover corner in the league (2 INTs last week) and he should be able to limit Roddy White’s effectiveness. Offensively, Philly is a juggernaut and Atlanta’s secondary is very suspect. This game has Eagles domination written all over it. This also marks Michael Vick’s return to Atlanta, which is going to be hyped to death. I really couldn’t care less about Mike Vick anymore. Eagles by 15.
Tampa Bay @ Carolina
We may finally be seeing Matt Moore in this game. If 18 INTs and a passer rating of less than 60 couldn’t force Jake Delhomme to the bench, maybe a broken finger can. Seriously Carolina, at this point in the season you may as well cut your losses and play the backup; you’re not going to the playoffs, and Jake isn’t going to magically become good. See what you have with Moore. It is tempting to pick the Bucs in this one, but the matchup bodes well for Carolina; Tampa is pretty good at defending the pass (11th in the league), but horrible against the run (30th). That means, even if they load the box with 9 guys, Williams and Steward still torch them. Panthers by 14.
St. Louis @ Chicago
Obvious fact: the Rams are one of the very worst teams in the NFL. The not-so-obvious fact: so is Chicago. Statistically speaking, the main difference between these teams is that St. Louis is a little better at running the ball, and a little worse at stopping the run. From a turnover standpoint, they’re tied. Offensively, they’re ranked 23rd and 24th. Chicago has more passing yards, but that’s simply because Jay Cutler is such an ass-faced weasel that he loves to rack up yardage once his team is hopelessly losing. St. Louis is better coached, and Steven Jackson should be able to run all over this banged-up and uninspired Bears defense. The only reason for me to pick Chicago is they’re at home. That’s not good enough. I’m taking the Rams, if for no better reason, than out of spite for Cutler. St. Louis by 3.
Detroit @ Cincinnati
Hmm…should I simply say “Bengals by 20” or should I humdrum on and on about why. I don’t even know anymore … To keep it concise: Lions can’t stop anybody, Lions are plagued by injuries to players who weren’t even good in the first place, Cincinnati is playing inspired, they’re at home, they’re smart and well-coached, they’re tough on defense, they have a great leader at QB, they have an offensive line that can easily keep the Lions from putting any pressure whatsoever on Carson Palmer, and they haven’t allowed a rush of more than 25 yards from anyone, all season. Meanwhile, Kevin Smith is as slow as molasses and Matt Stafford is still buying into his own hype after his “heroic” 5 TD game against Cleveland and he’s missing his best and only wide receiver, Calvin Johnson, who plays every play like he wants to be injured. Ah, what the heck … Bengals by 20.
Tennessee @ Indianapolis
This is one of the Games of the Week, along with MIN @ ARZ and DAL @ NYG. The Titans have won five games in a row since Vince Young became the starter and Chris Johnson’s body was possessed by a freaking gazelle. The Colts, meanwhile have won eleven in a row since Peyton Manning took over, and they just so happen to have the NFL’s best passing offense. Incidentally, Tennessee has the league’s second worst passing defense (the only worse team is … you guessed it, Detroit!) and nothing Vince or Chris does can fix the secondary. Look, I like the Titans improbable rise from 0-6 to 5-6 as much as the next guy, but come on. Peyton Manning has thrown 25 TDs and completes 70% of his passes, while the Titans have allowed 25 TDs (the second most in the league, behind only … Detroit) and surrender a 68% completion percentage. You think there’s any chance Peyton will have a good game, at home, against the Titans D? Gee, I wonder. I’ll take the Colts, because no matter what the Titans do on offense, they won’t be able to keep pace with the Colts. Indy by 17.
Denver @ KC
Okay, just to warn you, there’s going to be a major drop-off in the quality of these picks, starting here. I wrote the first section at home with unlimited internet googling access. Now I am at work where I am under constant surveillance. So while I can’t give statistical insights or trends, I can only offer my gut hunches. In this one, you have the overachieving Broncos at the underachieving Chiefs, in a stadium that’s among the least friendly to visiting teams. I definitely don’t see a Denver blowout. That said, I don’t see the Chiefs winning either; their secondary allows too many big plays and tackles more poorly than any team in the NFL. That’s a bad omen against Brandon Marshall, who is the best receiver in the NFL after the catch. He should go for 150 yards, easy, and give Denver the big play(s) they need to pull this win out. Broncos by 6.
New England @ Miami
I was thoroughly unimpressed with New England and their quarterback on Monday night against the Saints. It made me question their playoff chances and definitely made me worry about their porous defense. But Chad Henne isn’t exactly Drew Brees, and Brady will take out his frustrations on a couple of rookie CBs who didn’t exactly stop Randy Moss the first time these teams met. New England thrives against the lesser teams, and Miami, while frisky, is still a lesser team. Pats by 17.
Saints @ Redskins
Drew, I’m sorry I picked against you, and I promise, it won’t happen again. Unless you meet Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl. Saints by as many points as they want to win by.
Oakland @ Pittsburgh
Simply, the Steelers are a borderline elite team and the Raiders are borderline garbage. It’s a good week to own the Steelers DST. PGH by 30.
Houston @ Jacksonville
This is the Subtlety Important Wildcard Game of the Week, as the winner will be in pretty good shape for the sixth seed in the AFC playoffs, especially if the Titans and Ravens lose, as I expect they will. One wildcard spot is going to either the Steelers or Bengals (whichever doesn’t win the North), which leaves one spot remaining for Denver, Tennessee, Baltimore, maaaybe the Jets or Dolphins, and one of these two teams. In this game, I like Jacksonville, for no particular reason, except that Houston seems to be falling apart lately. Jags by 3.
San Diego @ Cleveland
Bolts by ….I don’t know, 70?
Dallas @ NYG
This looks like a must-win for the Giants, but it isn’t necessarily. A loss would stick them at 6-6 and way behind Dallas in the East, but they are fortunate in that Philly and Atlanta play each other, meaning one will win and one will lose. If Green Bay also loses, the Giants are still in pretty good shape for the 6 seed, especially if Seattle beats San Fran. But that’s a lot of ifs. The best thing New York could do is just go out and win this game at home. Eli is expected to play despite the foot injury, and Tony Romo’s history of playing in cold weather is not good. I like the Giants, by 10 or so.
San Francisco @ Seattle
I tried to give the NFC West a fair chance, but now it’s just getting irritating. I don’t care. But if I have to pick, I like Seattle’s home-field edge and the improvement they have with Justin Forsett over Julius Jones, and I think the Alex Smith hoopla is faded away and he’ll struggle in this game. ‘Hawks by 14.
Minnesota @ Arizona
Average age of starting quarterbacks in this game = 39 years. That’s got to be a record right? Favre is beyond due for a Favre-like game and a long trip to the desert might be what finally does him in. I’m taking the Cards in an upset, and I’m betting Favre throws at least two interceptions. ARZ by 7.
Baltimore @ Green Bay
Green Bay has had 11 days to prep for this game, while Baltimore’s had 7. I really think that effects the outcome, because these teams are so evenly matched. This is one of those rare games that could be a blowout for either team. You never know which Joe Flacco you’re gonna get, and the same goes for the entire Packers team. I like the well-rested Pack at Lambeau, by 4.
Jets @ Bills in Toronto
These Toronto games are always obnoxious. TO has been really clicking lately with Ryan Fitzpatrick and actually gave him a compliment recently, saying that the Harvard grad can throw the long ball better than Trent Edwards and he enjoys playing with him. After Darelle Revis completely shuts TO down in this game, he'll be singing a different tune. The Bills are going to need to rely on their other offensive weapons. Buffalo's defense was phenomenal last week against Miami, forcing turnovers, racking up sacks and winning the game single-handedly. I like their chances to stup (mix between stuff and stop, it was a typo but i decided to leave it) the run and force the Jets to pass, which essentially puts this game in the hands of Mark Sanchez. So really this pick comes down to the question: how far has Sanchez come in his rookie year, and can he be relied on to not just manage the game, but win the game? My opinion: Sanchez is improving, but he still has a lot of work to do. Since the Jets 3-0 start, his numbers haven't improved; his completion percentage hovers around 55% most weeks and his INTs almost double his TDs, even despite the team trading for Braylon Edwards and giving him a #1 target. Last time Mark played the Bills, he threw 5 picks and had a QB rating of 8.3, so he can't possibly do any worse. He may be looking for revenge, but it won't come very easy. I like the Bills to eek this one out by running the ball, controlling the clock and forcing Sanchez to make mistakes. But I wouldn't bet on it. Bills by 4.
Early Sunday games
Philly @ Atlanta
Got to pick the Eagles in this one; even if Matt Ryan were healthy it would still be a Philly pick because Ryan hasn’t been very good over the past 6 games or so. But Chris Redman will have a real tough time against the aggressive Eagles blitzes, and Asante Samuel is playing as well as any cover corner in the league (2 INTs last week) and he should be able to limit Roddy White’s effectiveness. Offensively, Philly is a juggernaut and Atlanta’s secondary is very suspect. This game has Eagles domination written all over it. This also marks Michael Vick’s return to Atlanta, which is going to be hyped to death. I really couldn’t care less about Mike Vick anymore. Eagles by 15.
Tampa Bay @ Carolina
We may finally be seeing Matt Moore in this game. If 18 INTs and a passer rating of less than 60 couldn’t force Jake Delhomme to the bench, maybe a broken finger can. Seriously Carolina, at this point in the season you may as well cut your losses and play the backup; you’re not going to the playoffs, and Jake isn’t going to magically become good. See what you have with Moore. It is tempting to pick the Bucs in this one, but the matchup bodes well for Carolina; Tampa is pretty good at defending the pass (11th in the league), but horrible against the run (30th). That means, even if they load the box with 9 guys, Williams and Steward still torch them. Panthers by 14.
St. Louis @ Chicago
Obvious fact: the Rams are one of the very worst teams in the NFL. The not-so-obvious fact: so is Chicago. Statistically speaking, the main difference between these teams is that St. Louis is a little better at running the ball, and a little worse at stopping the run. From a turnover standpoint, they’re tied. Offensively, they’re ranked 23rd and 24th. Chicago has more passing yards, but that’s simply because Jay Cutler is such an ass-faced weasel that he loves to rack up yardage once his team is hopelessly losing. St. Louis is better coached, and Steven Jackson should be able to run all over this banged-up and uninspired Bears defense. The only reason for me to pick Chicago is they’re at home. That’s not good enough. I’m taking the Rams, if for no better reason, than out of spite for Cutler. St. Louis by 3.
Detroit @ Cincinnati
Hmm…should I simply say “Bengals by 20” or should I humdrum on and on about why. I don’t even know anymore … To keep it concise: Lions can’t stop anybody, Lions are plagued by injuries to players who weren’t even good in the first place, Cincinnati is playing inspired, they’re at home, they’re smart and well-coached, they’re tough on defense, they have a great leader at QB, they have an offensive line that can easily keep the Lions from putting any pressure whatsoever on Carson Palmer, and they haven’t allowed a rush of more than 25 yards from anyone, all season. Meanwhile, Kevin Smith is as slow as molasses and Matt Stafford is still buying into his own hype after his “heroic” 5 TD game against Cleveland and he’s missing his best and only wide receiver, Calvin Johnson, who plays every play like he wants to be injured. Ah, what the heck … Bengals by 20.
Tennessee @ Indianapolis
This is one of the Games of the Week, along with MIN @ ARZ and DAL @ NYG. The Titans have won five games in a row since Vince Young became the starter and Chris Johnson’s body was possessed by a freaking gazelle. The Colts, meanwhile have won eleven in a row since Peyton Manning took over, and they just so happen to have the NFL’s best passing offense. Incidentally, Tennessee has the league’s second worst passing defense (the only worse team is … you guessed it, Detroit!) and nothing Vince or Chris does can fix the secondary. Look, I like the Titans improbable rise from 0-6 to 5-6 as much as the next guy, but come on. Peyton Manning has thrown 25 TDs and completes 70% of his passes, while the Titans have allowed 25 TDs (the second most in the league, behind only … Detroit) and surrender a 68% completion percentage. You think there’s any chance Peyton will have a good game, at home, against the Titans D? Gee, I wonder. I’ll take the Colts, because no matter what the Titans do on offense, they won’t be able to keep pace with the Colts. Indy by 17.
Denver @ KC
Okay, just to warn you, there’s going to be a major drop-off in the quality of these picks, starting here. I wrote the first section at home with unlimited internet googling access. Now I am at work where I am under constant surveillance. So while I can’t give statistical insights or trends, I can only offer my gut hunches. In this one, you have the overachieving Broncos at the underachieving Chiefs, in a stadium that’s among the least friendly to visiting teams. I definitely don’t see a Denver blowout. That said, I don’t see the Chiefs winning either; their secondary allows too many big plays and tackles more poorly than any team in the NFL. That’s a bad omen against Brandon Marshall, who is the best receiver in the NFL after the catch. He should go for 150 yards, easy, and give Denver the big play(s) they need to pull this win out. Broncos by 6.
New England @ Miami
I was thoroughly unimpressed with New England and their quarterback on Monday night against the Saints. It made me question their playoff chances and definitely made me worry about their porous defense. But Chad Henne isn’t exactly Drew Brees, and Brady will take out his frustrations on a couple of rookie CBs who didn’t exactly stop Randy Moss the first time these teams met. New England thrives against the lesser teams, and Miami, while frisky, is still a lesser team. Pats by 17.
Saints @ Redskins
Drew, I’m sorry I picked against you, and I promise, it won’t happen again. Unless you meet Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl. Saints by as many points as they want to win by.
Oakland @ Pittsburgh
Simply, the Steelers are a borderline elite team and the Raiders are borderline garbage. It’s a good week to own the Steelers DST. PGH by 30.
Houston @ Jacksonville
This is the Subtlety Important Wildcard Game of the Week, as the winner will be in pretty good shape for the sixth seed in the AFC playoffs, especially if the Titans and Ravens lose, as I expect they will. One wildcard spot is going to either the Steelers or Bengals (whichever doesn’t win the North), which leaves one spot remaining for Denver, Tennessee, Baltimore, maaaybe the Jets or Dolphins, and one of these two teams. In this game, I like Jacksonville, for no particular reason, except that Houston seems to be falling apart lately. Jags by 3.
San Diego @ Cleveland
Bolts by ….I don’t know, 70?
Dallas @ NYG
This looks like a must-win for the Giants, but it isn’t necessarily. A loss would stick them at 6-6 and way behind Dallas in the East, but they are fortunate in that Philly and Atlanta play each other, meaning one will win and one will lose. If Green Bay also loses, the Giants are still in pretty good shape for the 6 seed, especially if Seattle beats San Fran. But that’s a lot of ifs. The best thing New York could do is just go out and win this game at home. Eli is expected to play despite the foot injury, and Tony Romo’s history of playing in cold weather is not good. I like the Giants, by 10 or so.
San Francisco @ Seattle
I tried to give the NFC West a fair chance, but now it’s just getting irritating. I don’t care. But if I have to pick, I like Seattle’s home-field edge and the improvement they have with Justin Forsett over Julius Jones, and I think the Alex Smith hoopla is faded away and he’ll struggle in this game. ‘Hawks by 14.
Minnesota @ Arizona
Average age of starting quarterbacks in this game = 39 years. That’s got to be a record right? Favre is beyond due for a Favre-like game and a long trip to the desert might be what finally does him in. I’m taking the Cards in an upset, and I’m betting Favre throws at least two interceptions. ARZ by 7.
Baltimore @ Green Bay
Green Bay has had 11 days to prep for this game, while Baltimore’s had 7. I really think that effects the outcome, because these teams are so evenly matched. This is one of those rare games that could be a blowout for either team. You never know which Joe Flacco you’re gonna get, and the same goes for the entire Packers team. I like the well-rested Pack at Lambeau, by 4.
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