Hey yall
I know I haven't posted anything in a week .. just to let you know, I'm working on a huge NBA preview which I'm about half way done with. I haven't had much time to work on it. But it'll be up soon and there's only about 1 month until football season (halelujah!), at which time I'll post my weekly picks along with plenty of thoughts on the Lions loses and other NFL-related things. But right now is the dead time for sports. In the aftermath of soccer and LeBron and moderately entertaining ventures in golf and tennis, we have now reach a month-long span in sports which can only be described as an utter snooze-fest. I don't know how many more times ESPN can try to hype up A-Rod's quest for 600 home runs.
The Tigers are so sucky lately that I can barely breathe when I think about them. I was going to write about Matt Garza's "no-hitter' a few days ago and how retarted it is to throw a no-hitter against a bunch of minor league players and how the Tigers have five guys in the lineup with OBPs that are less than .300 when no other team has more than two such guys, and how Laird, Raburn and Kelly are three of the five worst hitters in all of Major League Baseball, and how Gerald Laird literally has 1 walk and 5 hits in the month of July despite 38 at-bats and he might be the worst player in the history of the Majors... but then I decided that writing such a thing would only infuriate me so I didn't. But let's just say that two weeks ago the Tigers were in first place and well on their way to the playoffs, and now they'll be lucky to hold off the Indians for fourth. Magglio, Guillen and Inge (not to mention Zumaya) are all likely out for the season. The Tigers need to trade for a quality hitter, and then do it again, and then again, and then again. But the problem is, we have no one to trade ...
Anyway, today is my 25th birthday. I am officially an antique, and can now legally rent a car. Thank goodness. I can smoke, drink, vote, go to jail, join the Army, get married, have a child, but now society has deemed that I am finally old enough to rent a car. That's got to rank up there along with this video as the dumbest thing about America.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Sunday, July 25, 2010
If I lived in Las Vegas ...
If I had a bunch of money to spend and lived near a casino, these are the NFL bets that I would make...
2010 Regular Season Win Totals
Buffalo: 5 - UNDER
Tampa Bay: 6 - UNDER
Denver: 7.5 UNDER
Seattle: 7.5 UNDER
Oakland: 6 - OVER
Houston: 8 - OVER
Miami: 8.5 OVER
Atlanta: 9 - OVER
I would also place small bets on the following:
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:
Miami: 30/1
Atlanta: 20/1
Baltimore: 14/1
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Another mock draft ...
My first ever IDP league!
24 exhausting rounds. Well actually I was on autodraft, but I’m sure it was exhausting for others. Individual defensive players + the usual 9 starters and a huge bench. Here are the results....
I took Chris Johnson with the first overall pick, and then 23 picks later the autodrafting idiots gave me Cedric Benson and Shonn Greene. Three straight running backs? Really, can’t they fix the program so it doesn’t do that, especially when Roddy White and Calvin Johnson and Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin were all available? Bah!
By the time I came back around all the quality WRs were gone, so I landed Mike Sims-Walker as my top wideout, and then Dallas Clark. Not good.
Next time up the autodraft was kind enough to give me 2 WRs, but I could have done better than Garcon and Houshmandzadeh.
Round 8 the first defensive player goes (Brian Dawkins from Denver, strangely enough) and I finally get my quarterback – Kevin Kolb. Yikes, this is not a league I’m going to enjoy very much. I could have taken Matt Ryan, are you kidding me!?
In the ninth round I autodrafted the Bills' Fred Jackson. Wow. Talk about an exciting pick, I just got a benchwarmer on the league’s worst team. Then in round ten I got a solid sleeper with Johnny Knox.
Packers DST followed by Derrick Mason and then two running backs with picks 13 and 14 – Marshawn Lynch and Ahmad Bradshaw. Typically, the guys who get taken by autodrafters are guys that nobody really wants. Benson, Houshmandzadeh, Garcon, Kolb, Jackson, Lynch, Mason … all perfect examples.
But that’s why autodrafters typically do much better than people expect. They land players who are expected to be busts, and when those busts aren’t busts, they turn into great value picks. Let’s hope I have at least one or two of those.
In round 15 I brilliantly autopick a kicker when I still need WR and RB depth. Super. Then I take Nate Burleson, and then next David Garrard. Most of the elite IDPs are gone by this point, and Garrard is a complete and total waste of space.
I take Falcons linebacker Curtis Lofton in the 18th and then another tight end in John Carlson – what a waste considering I already have Dallas Clark. I then take another linebacker in the 20th – D’Qwell Jackson from Cleveland. These IDP leagues aren't nearly as exciting as I hoped.
Filling out my roster with the last 4 picks are 4 IDPs – Oakland’s safety Tyvon Branch, Jags’ DE Aaron Kampman, Carolina CB Richard Marshall, and with the last overall pick of the day, Philly’s DT Mike Patterson.
Once I logged into the league and see the results, I was sad, and promptly made some moves.
First I dropped David Garrard for Alex Smith, who just so happens to have a week 1 date with Seattle’s inferior secondary which should be a big performance. Then I dropped Nate Burleson for a sleeper in James Jones from Green Bay.
Next, I fixed my defensive positions. Patterson was dropped for Cleveland’s Shaun Rogers, and I dropped Branch to pick up … Ed Reed. How did Reed not get drafted? I guess he’s hurt. But still, I’ll stash him on my bench until he retuns. So I grab the Jets’ safety Jim Leonard to play until Reed’s return, and drop D’Qwell Jackson to make room.
Then I dump a couple unnecessary offensive players in Carlson and Mason and add potential IDP studs in Asante Samuel and Lawrence Timmons. Last move of the day, I drop Richard Marshall and add Detroit’s Kyle VandenBosch, hoping for some sacks.
To recap, my quarterbacks stink, my running backs stink, and my WRs really stink. But I have Chris Johnson and Dallas Clark, so I should be able to compete if I get lucky with one or two sleepers. Between Kolb, Benson and Greene, I should hit a strike with at least one of them. I hope.
Football season can't come soon enough.
24 exhausting rounds. Well actually I was on autodraft, but I’m sure it was exhausting for others. Individual defensive players + the usual 9 starters and a huge bench. Here are the results....
I took Chris Johnson with the first overall pick, and then 23 picks later the autodrafting idiots gave me Cedric Benson and Shonn Greene. Three straight running backs? Really, can’t they fix the program so it doesn’t do that, especially when Roddy White and Calvin Johnson and Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin were all available? Bah!
By the time I came back around all the quality WRs were gone, so I landed Mike Sims-Walker as my top wideout, and then Dallas Clark. Not good.
Next time up the autodraft was kind enough to give me 2 WRs, but I could have done better than Garcon and Houshmandzadeh.
Round 8 the first defensive player goes (Brian Dawkins from Denver, strangely enough) and I finally get my quarterback – Kevin Kolb. Yikes, this is not a league I’m going to enjoy very much. I could have taken Matt Ryan, are you kidding me!?
In the ninth round I autodrafted the Bills' Fred Jackson. Wow. Talk about an exciting pick, I just got a benchwarmer on the league’s worst team. Then in round ten I got a solid sleeper with Johnny Knox.
Packers DST followed by Derrick Mason and then two running backs with picks 13 and 14 – Marshawn Lynch and Ahmad Bradshaw. Typically, the guys who get taken by autodrafters are guys that nobody really wants. Benson, Houshmandzadeh, Garcon, Kolb, Jackson, Lynch, Mason … all perfect examples.
But that’s why autodrafters typically do much better than people expect. They land players who are expected to be busts, and when those busts aren’t busts, they turn into great value picks. Let’s hope I have at least one or two of those.
In round 15 I brilliantly autopick a kicker when I still need WR and RB depth. Super. Then I take Nate Burleson, and then next David Garrard. Most of the elite IDPs are gone by this point, and Garrard is a complete and total waste of space.
I take Falcons linebacker Curtis Lofton in the 18th and then another tight end in John Carlson – what a waste considering I already have Dallas Clark. I then take another linebacker in the 20th – D’Qwell Jackson from Cleveland. These IDP leagues aren't nearly as exciting as I hoped.
Filling out my roster with the last 4 picks are 4 IDPs – Oakland’s safety Tyvon Branch, Jags’ DE Aaron Kampman, Carolina CB Richard Marshall, and with the last overall pick of the day, Philly’s DT Mike Patterson.
Once I logged into the league and see the results, I was sad, and promptly made some moves.
First I dropped David Garrard for Alex Smith, who just so happens to have a week 1 date with Seattle’s inferior secondary which should be a big performance. Then I dropped Nate Burleson for a sleeper in James Jones from Green Bay.
Next, I fixed my defensive positions. Patterson was dropped for Cleveland’s Shaun Rogers, and I dropped Branch to pick up … Ed Reed. How did Reed not get drafted? I guess he’s hurt. But still, I’ll stash him on my bench until he retuns. So I grab the Jets’ safety Jim Leonard to play until Reed’s return, and drop D’Qwell Jackson to make room.
Then I dump a couple unnecessary offensive players in Carlson and Mason and add potential IDP studs in Asante Samuel and Lawrence Timmons. Last move of the day, I drop Richard Marshall and add Detroit’s Kyle VandenBosch, hoping for some sacks.
To recap, my quarterbacks stink, my running backs stink, and my WRs really stink. But I have Chris Johnson and Dallas Clark, so I should be able to compete if I get lucky with one or two sleepers. Between Kolb, Benson and Greene, I should hit a strike with at least one of them. I hope.
Football season can't come soon enough.
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Answers to 20 NFL questions
I just read a column on SI.com (here's the link) which asks 20 burning questions for the upcoming NFL season and then proceeds to answer them. I was surprised that the list really did capture 20 of the most prudent and meaningful storylines of the offseason rather than just rehashing stupid drama about TO or Ochocinco, neither of whom were mentioned. The column was so good I decided to copy-paste the questions into this here blog and answer them myself.
1. Is Kevin Kolb ready for his close-up in Philadelphia?
Answer: Yes.... and no. From a talent standpoint I say yes, but from a mental standpoint, no, not quite yet.
2. Will Anquan Boldin be the No. 1 receiver that Baltimore has lacked since Raymond Berry retired?
Berry's best season in Baltimore was 1298 yards and 10 TDs; Boldin will top that.
3. Are the Titans holding their breath about Chris Johnson's threatened holdout?
Nope.
4. Can the Redskins still move the unmoveable Albert Haynesworth?
It's too late. Nobody wants him, and for good reason.
5. Is Jason Campbell the next Jim Plunkett or Rich Gannon in Oakland or merely another Kerry Collins or Jeff George?
Somewhere in between.
6. Will "Medical Marvel" replace "Mighty Mite" as an apt description for New England's Wes Welker?
Great question. My head tells me no, my heart tells me yes.
7. Who's headlining Favre-apalooza this year?
I don't understand the question, but yes Favre will be back.
8. Will the Steelers be singing "Wake Me Up When September Ends" or is Ben Roethlisberger's suspension survivable in Pittsburgh?
Yes and yes.
9. Can the returning Mike Shanahan breathe competitive life into the NFC-East cellar-dwelling Redskins?
He'll definitely be an improvement over Jim Zorn.
10. Will the Cardinals follow Matt Leinart's lead from day one?
They will ... but by day 50 they'll be ready to march on with Derek Anderson.
11. Can Jimmy Claussen make Carolina's second-round investment look like a first-class move?
Absolutely he can, but not this season. That's why it's an "investment."
12. Are there enough cameras to capture all that Jets star power on HBO?
No; it will be very interesting to see who Tomlinson blames when they miss the playoffs.
13. Will the third time around be the charm for Pete Carroll in Seattle?
If by "charm" you mean 6 wins, then yes.
14. Was it Andy Reid and his West Coast offense that made Donovan McNabb Donovan McNabb, or the other way around?
A little bit of both, but moreso the former than the latter.
15. How pronounced will the Saints' Super Bowl hangover be in the city of hangovers?
Depends if you believe in the Madden Curse. I do.
16. Will Julius Peppers elevate the Bears' defense more than Jay Cutler did for the offense last year?
Well duh.
17. Will it be training wheels or a Superman sequel for rookie Tim Tebow in Denver?
I'm thinking more of a "human victory cigar" role. I can hear the Denver fans now: "Te-Bow! Te-Bow!"
18. Will Sam Bradford be a franchise savior or just another struggling St. Louis Ram?
It'll take a few years before he's a savior, but he won't be bad as a rookie.
19. Is Tom Coughlin light enough on his feet to coach on the bubble all season?
I think he's one of the best coaches period, but I don't think that's enough to get the Giants over .500.
20. Has there ever been a more unflappable NFL player than Detroit's Matthew Stafford?
Just kidding, I made that one up.
20. Did the Super Bowl-winning Saints provide the rest of the NFL with a blueprint for how to beat Peyton Manning and the Colts?
Yes, it's called "get Drew Brees."
1. Is Kevin Kolb ready for his close-up in Philadelphia?
Answer: Yes.... and no. From a talent standpoint I say yes, but from a mental standpoint, no, not quite yet.
2. Will Anquan Boldin be the No. 1 receiver that Baltimore has lacked since Raymond Berry retired?
Berry's best season in Baltimore was 1298 yards and 10 TDs; Boldin will top that.
3. Are the Titans holding their breath about Chris Johnson's threatened holdout?
Nope.
4. Can the Redskins still move the unmoveable Albert Haynesworth?
It's too late. Nobody wants him, and for good reason.
5. Is Jason Campbell the next Jim Plunkett or Rich Gannon in Oakland or merely another Kerry Collins or Jeff George?
Somewhere in between.
6. Will "Medical Marvel" replace "Mighty Mite" as an apt description for New England's Wes Welker?
Great question. My head tells me no, my heart tells me yes.
7. Who's headlining Favre-apalooza this year?
I don't understand the question, but yes Favre will be back.
8. Will the Steelers be singing "Wake Me Up When September Ends" or is Ben Roethlisberger's suspension survivable in Pittsburgh?
Yes and yes.
9. Can the returning Mike Shanahan breathe competitive life into the NFC-East cellar-dwelling Redskins?
He'll definitely be an improvement over Jim Zorn.
10. Will the Cardinals follow Matt Leinart's lead from day one?
They will ... but by day 50 they'll be ready to march on with Derek Anderson.
11. Can Jimmy Claussen make Carolina's second-round investment look like a first-class move?
Absolutely he can, but not this season. That's why it's an "investment."
12. Are there enough cameras to capture all that Jets star power on HBO?
No; it will be very interesting to see who Tomlinson blames when they miss the playoffs.
13. Will the third time around be the charm for Pete Carroll in Seattle?
If by "charm" you mean 6 wins, then yes.
14. Was it Andy Reid and his West Coast offense that made Donovan McNabb Donovan McNabb, or the other way around?
A little bit of both, but moreso the former than the latter.
15. How pronounced will the Saints' Super Bowl hangover be in the city of hangovers?
Depends if you believe in the Madden Curse. I do.
16. Will Julius Peppers elevate the Bears' defense more than Jay Cutler did for the offense last year?
Well duh.
17. Will it be training wheels or a Superman sequel for rookie Tim Tebow in Denver?
I'm thinking more of a "human victory cigar" role. I can hear the Denver fans now: "Te-Bow! Te-Bow!"
18. Will Sam Bradford be a franchise savior or just another struggling St. Louis Ram?
It'll take a few years before he's a savior, but he won't be bad as a rookie.
19. Is Tom Coughlin light enough on his feet to coach on the bubble all season?
I think he's one of the best coaches period, but I don't think that's enough to get the Giants over .500.
20. Has there ever been a more unflappable NFL player than Detroit's Matthew Stafford?
Just kidding, I made that one up.
20. Did the Super Bowl-winning Saints provide the rest of the NFL with a blueprint for how to beat Peyton Manning and the Colts?
Yes, it's called "get Drew Brees."
Thursday, July 15, 2010
A video worth watching
In this hysterical video clip during a recent NBA summer league game, Minnesota Timberwolves GM David Kahn describes Darko Milicic as "manna from heaven." He says Darko is "legitimately" 7'1" (as opposed to ... unlegitimately?) and is the best passing big man he's ever seen. Really?!!? This from the GM of the team that has the league's BEST passing big man in Kevin Love? Unbelievable.
Kahn then proceeds to compare Darko's career to fellow commentator Chris Webber, because they both started out slow. Webber laughs and says "Don't talk about me and Darko in the same sentence." It's high comedy.
Now, for the record, Webber started in 76 games as a rookie, averaged 17.5 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, shot 55% from the field, and won Rookie of the Year. Generally, winning ROY doesn't constitute a slow start.
Webber then averaged at least 20 points for 8 straight seasons, made 5 all-star games, and scored a grand total of 17,182 points as an NBA player. Only 6 players in NBA history have career averages of 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists. Webber is one of them, and the other 5 are Hall of Famers.
Darko, on the other hand, started in 3 games in his first 4 seasons, and has now been with 6 teams in his 7 year career. He finally eclipsed the 2,000 point mark last season - by contrast Webber eclipsed that mark halfway through his second pro season.
Darko is arguably the least talented player to ever take the court in an NBA game, and also one of the craziest. (caution: that video contains language that is way inappropriate for children).
Manna from heaven? More like a plague of locusts.
Kahn then proceeds to compare Darko's career to fellow commentator Chris Webber, because they both started out slow. Webber laughs and says "Don't talk about me and Darko in the same sentence." It's high comedy.
Now, for the record, Webber started in 76 games as a rookie, averaged 17.5 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, shot 55% from the field, and won Rookie of the Year. Generally, winning ROY doesn't constitute a slow start.
Webber then averaged at least 20 points for 8 straight seasons, made 5 all-star games, and scored a grand total of 17,182 points as an NBA player. Only 6 players in NBA history have career averages of 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists. Webber is one of them, and the other 5 are Hall of Famers.
Darko, on the other hand, started in 3 games in his first 4 seasons, and has now been with 6 teams in his 7 year career. He finally eclipsed the 2,000 point mark last season - by contrast Webber eclipsed that mark halfway through his second pro season.
Darko is arguably the least talented player to ever take the court in an NBA game, and also one of the craziest. (caution: that video contains language that is way inappropriate for children).
Manna from heaven? More like a plague of locusts.
Sleepers, or Creepers?
I know I've already talked about 2010's Fantasy Sleepers a million times, but it's such an ever-changing landscape that I felt this was necessary. Fantasy football is everywhere this time of year; somebody goes from an unknown to a sleeper to a household name to overrated in just weeks. A perfect example is Ryan Matthews.
Two seconds after the Chargers drafted him in the first round, I thought "Hey, he's got the starting job on a great offense, sounds like a fantasy sleeper to me." I was very excited to display my brilliance by picking him in the fourth round. I stashed his name in my head as a top secret. But slowly but surely everybody came to the same realization. He suddenly became a top 20 running back on everybody's list, and just recently I saw him go thirteenth overall in a mock draft. Really, THIRTEENTH overall?? That's absurd. How does a rookie, on a pass-first offense, who won't play on third downs, and might not even be any good, warrant the second pick in the second round???? Suddenly, all the reasons I liked Matthews as a sleeper were gone and I could only see the negatives. In the fourth round, he's brilliant. In the second round, he's awful. From sleeper to overrated, just like that.
It's such a volatile industry and it's hard to keep up. I called Chad Henne and Marc Sanchez sleepers weeks ago, but that's like calling LeBron James a jackass. It's too easy, too obvious. There are obvious sleepers, and then there are the ones that everyone misses. Guys who have been around the league for a while. Like last year, with Brett Favre. And for that matter, Sidney Rice. No one expected monster numbers from them, but maybe we should have. After all, they were great players on a great offense. We should have seen it coming, but we were so focused on the guys we thought were sleepers last season (the cute, idiotic picks like Trent Edwards and Kyle Orton) that we missed the obvious.
I decided to break out my dusty 2009 fantasy magazine and take a look at the choice of projected sleepers. You're not gonna believe this...
Besides Orton and Edwards, we've got LaDanian Tomlinson, Michael Crabtree, Lee Evans, Dwayne Bowe, Derrick Ward, Laveranues Coles, LenDale White, and check this one out - Daunte Culpepper! You call those sleepers?? I call those cadavers.
What do all of these "sleepers" have in common? Well, aside from all being extremly wrong, they are each prime examples of the rampant over-thinking that takes place in fantasy preparation. People try so hard to outsmart their foes that they overthink their foes, and the guy with the best team ends up being the guy who was stuck on auto-draft. Maybe instead of passing on Cedric Benson last year because the magazine told you to, you should have grabbed him in the third round. The smartest move would have been the least daring.
Sometimes the obvious sleepers are true. Last year a lot of people pegged Ray Rice as a bonafide sleeper stud and we're dead on. But it doesn't usually happen. A good rule is that if everybody agrees someone is a sleeper, they're probably being drafted two rounds too early. I love Matthews and Shonn Greene and Rashard Mendenhall as "sleepers" this season, but as third-round sleepers. Not 13th overall picks.
Incidentally, the same 2009 magazine has a list of players who are overrated, overvalued and will underdeliver. Let's see: Thomas Jones (1,400 yards and 14 TDs), Donald Driver (1,000 yards and 6 TDs), Tony Romo (26 TDs, 4,400 yards), Brandon Marshall (1,100 yards, 10 TDs), and look at that - the best player in 2009 fantasy football - Chris Johnson (2,500 total yards and 16 TDs). Wow. And these are the so-called "experts."
So let me get this straight. Daunte Culpepper is a sleeper, and Chris Johnson is a bust? Yes? Okay, just wanted to clarify that. I mean, they could have literally swapped the sleeper list for the dud list and looked like pure geniuses. This was only one year ago. It's amazing these guys have jobs. I think the only reason is because people rarely look back at last year's fantasy magazine.
So how is it that a guy like Marshall or Romo or Chris Johnson comes to be perceived as "overrated" when they are such immense and obvious talents? How could anyone have ever typed the following sentence: "Johnson may have rushed for over 1,200 yards as a rookie, but don't expect him to continue that kind of success. He lacks the power to be an every-down back and will lose touches at the goal-line." Hmmm... really? Have the people who write our fantasy magazines ever actually watched football? Or do they just look at box scores? Because Chris Johnson may be small, but he has no lack in power, and can definitely be an every-down back. And he was, leading the NFL with 358 carries.
The point is, my friends, don't trust the experts. They don't know anything. They're idiots but because their words are written on glossy pages with pretty HD pictures we believe every word they say. No matter who they tell you the sleepers are, just ignore them and decide for yourself. Think outside the box, and only then can you truly be free.
Two seconds after the Chargers drafted him in the first round, I thought "Hey, he's got the starting job on a great offense, sounds like a fantasy sleeper to me." I was very excited to display my brilliance by picking him in the fourth round. I stashed his name in my head as a top secret. But slowly but surely everybody came to the same realization. He suddenly became a top 20 running back on everybody's list, and just recently I saw him go thirteenth overall in a mock draft. Really, THIRTEENTH overall?? That's absurd. How does a rookie, on a pass-first offense, who won't play on third downs, and might not even be any good, warrant the second pick in the second round???? Suddenly, all the reasons I liked Matthews as a sleeper were gone and I could only see the negatives. In the fourth round, he's brilliant. In the second round, he's awful. From sleeper to overrated, just like that.
It's such a volatile industry and it's hard to keep up. I called Chad Henne and Marc Sanchez sleepers weeks ago, but that's like calling LeBron James a jackass. It's too easy, too obvious. There are obvious sleepers, and then there are the ones that everyone misses. Guys who have been around the league for a while. Like last year, with Brett Favre. And for that matter, Sidney Rice. No one expected monster numbers from them, but maybe we should have. After all, they were great players on a great offense. We should have seen it coming, but we were so focused on the guys we thought were sleepers last season (the cute, idiotic picks like Trent Edwards and Kyle Orton) that we missed the obvious.
I decided to break out my dusty 2009 fantasy magazine and take a look at the choice of projected sleepers. You're not gonna believe this...
Besides Orton and Edwards, we've got LaDanian Tomlinson, Michael Crabtree, Lee Evans, Dwayne Bowe, Derrick Ward, Laveranues Coles, LenDale White, and check this one out - Daunte Culpepper! You call those sleepers?? I call those cadavers.
What do all of these "sleepers" have in common? Well, aside from all being extremly wrong, they are each prime examples of the rampant over-thinking that takes place in fantasy preparation. People try so hard to outsmart their foes that they overthink their foes, and the guy with the best team ends up being the guy who was stuck on auto-draft. Maybe instead of passing on Cedric Benson last year because the magazine told you to, you should have grabbed him in the third round. The smartest move would have been the least daring.
Sometimes the obvious sleepers are true. Last year a lot of people pegged Ray Rice as a bonafide sleeper stud and we're dead on. But it doesn't usually happen. A good rule is that if everybody agrees someone is a sleeper, they're probably being drafted two rounds too early. I love Matthews and Shonn Greene and Rashard Mendenhall as "sleepers" this season, but as third-round sleepers. Not 13th overall picks.
Incidentally, the same 2009 magazine has a list of players who are overrated, overvalued and will underdeliver. Let's see: Thomas Jones (1,400 yards and 14 TDs), Donald Driver (1,000 yards and 6 TDs), Tony Romo (26 TDs, 4,400 yards), Brandon Marshall (1,100 yards, 10 TDs), and look at that - the best player in 2009 fantasy football - Chris Johnson (2,500 total yards and 16 TDs). Wow. And these are the so-called "experts."
So let me get this straight. Daunte Culpepper is a sleeper, and Chris Johnson is a bust? Yes? Okay, just wanted to clarify that. I mean, they could have literally swapped the sleeper list for the dud list and looked like pure geniuses. This was only one year ago. It's amazing these guys have jobs. I think the only reason is because people rarely look back at last year's fantasy magazine.
So how is it that a guy like Marshall or Romo or Chris Johnson comes to be perceived as "overrated" when they are such immense and obvious talents? How could anyone have ever typed the following sentence: "Johnson may have rushed for over 1,200 yards as a rookie, but don't expect him to continue that kind of success. He lacks the power to be an every-down back and will lose touches at the goal-line." Hmmm... really? Have the people who write our fantasy magazines ever actually watched football? Or do they just look at box scores? Because Chris Johnson may be small, but he has no lack in power, and can definitely be an every-down back. And he was, leading the NFL with 358 carries.
The point is, my friends, don't trust the experts. They don't know anything. They're idiots but because their words are written on glossy pages with pretty HD pictures we believe every word they say. No matter who they tell you the sleepers are, just ignore them and decide for yourself. Think outside the box, and only then can you truly be free.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Blogging a life draft
Blogging a life draft
12:54 PM I just joined a Yahoo league. 12 teams, standard scoring. The only difference is that return TDs are worth 6, so Cribbs and Hester have some value as do Reggie Bush and Wes Welker. I’m picking 5th overall. Knowing that AP and CJ will be gone, I’m hoping for Rice or MJD to fall to me, but expecting them not to. Do I take Andre with pick #5, or Turner, or a QB? Draft starts in 14 minutes.
12:52 PM So far I’m the only person in this draft room. Hmm…
12:53 PM The weirdest thing about this league is the scoring for defenses. 20 points for a shutout, 17 for 1-6 points, and 14 for 7-13 points, plus sacks and turnovers, but no scoring for yards. So how valuable are the Ravens or Steelers or Jets? Third round? I mean the Ravens are going to average 30+ in this league
12:55 The guy with pick 8 just joined and he’s already complaining that it’s unfair that he doesn’t get Chris Johnson. Some people are just such ass -clowns.
12:57 Oh, the other cool thing about this league is bonus points for every 50 yard interval. 100 yards rushing is worth a 2 point bonus, 150 is 4, and 200 yards is 6. Same for receivers. And QBs get a 2 point bonus at 300 yards, 4 points at 400 and 6 points at 500. I like that. All leagues should do that.
12:58 I think the bonus thing makes CJ just a little more valuable than AP, and also drops Randy Moss’s value significantly. It makes TD vultures less appealing too.
12:59 here we go …
1:01 CJ goes first, AP goes second, and the trade offers come flying in
1:02 Los Bandeleros just offered his 1,2,3 picks for CJ, to which Bill Allen said “NO f**ing way bitch.” I like this league already.
1:05 After TitanMania takes Jones-Drew third, I catch a break as Turner goes to 4 and I snatch Ray Rice without turning back. Love that Baltimore offense.
1:07 Picks 7 and 8 take Andre Johnson and Aaron Rodgers … my how the fantasy world has changed. Seems like just about everybody has the same thought process as me – take the 7 good running backs and then sit back and wait. Gore went 6; Steven Jackson still falling
1:08 Brees, followed by a shocker in Mendenhall. Reeally? Mendenhall over Steven Jackson??
1:10 Ryan Matthews just went thirteenth overall. He’s a rookie. He’s never played a down in his life. Wow. He just went ahead of Steven “2000 all-purpose yards” Jackson
1:11 Shonn Greene, Tom Brady, Steve Jackson, Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne all go in a span of 30 seconds
1:12 Three picks til me and I’m looking at Marshall or Roddy White
1:12 Moss and DeAngelo just went, I’m next
1:13 Miles Austin goes – pretty smart pick. Okay, Marshall or White? White or Marshall? Uh, screw it.
1:14 I just took Calvin Johnson.
1:14 He’ll have some crap games, but also some explosions and I like him in the bonus yards scoring system. I’ve seen Calvin rank as high as 2 among WRs, some fantasy xperts really like the pieces Detroit has surrounded him with.
1:16 The guys are arguing about who’s goin to the super bowl. I threw out my Ravens prediction and took some flack. But Heavy Hitterz likes the Bears and Niner Nation likes, of course, the Niners. So I’m waay closer than those two morons.
1:17 Oh, so Ryan Grant, Fitzgerald, Rivers, and ELI MANNING just went. Yes, Eli went in the second round. Looks like I might get Marshall or White after all.
1:18 The first Steve Smith off the board is of the Giants variety.
1:20 I lucked out as Jamaal Charles and Colston (HA!) went right ahead of me. I took Marshall, and just cemented a core 3 guys who will each have 1000 yards and 8 TDs. Next I gotta look at QB – hoping Romo will slip to me but doubt it.
1:22 Just about everyone’s in here and the picks are flying off the board – Roddy White, Romo (dangit), Schaub, Vincent Jackson (idiot), Dallas Clark (too soon), and Sidney Rice. And there goes DeSean Jackson, and Boldin, and Ced Benson. I’ve still got a while. Looks like I should go RB and wait on a QB.
1:23 Favorite team name – Dirty Sanchize
1:24 There goes Beanie Wells – laughably bad pick this early when you could have gotten a handful of identical RBs. If no one stands out at the position you want, just take a different position. Best player available was not beanie.
1;27 Ronnie Brown and McCoy just went, and then Gates. I’m up next. Liking me some Felix Jones and thinking I’ll wait on a QB – and take either Flacco or Ryan in a couple rounds. Fortunately the guy ahead of me is taking his entire 2 minutes so i can think.
1:29 And… he took Vernon Davis. Wow.
1:30 I went with Felix. This league only starts 2 WRs instead of 3, otherwise I might have stretched for Carolina Steve Smith or Sims-Walker or Ochocinco. But I thought Felix was considerably better than the rest of the RBs on the board (Addai, Moreno, Forte…)
1:32 More picks flying … Ocho, Addai, Harvin, Favre, SteveSmith, Moreno, Celek, and Matt Ryan. Terrible pick with Celek. Once the top 2 TEs are gone, just wait it out people. They’re all the same. Jermichael Finley, Brent Celek, Jason Witten, it makes no difference. The Favre pick was bad too.
1:33 Shoot I’m up.
1:34 I took Flacco cuz with 15 picks until my next pick he was not coming back to me (he was third QB on autorank board) and I needed a QB now that I have RB RB WR WR
1:34 only problem is I now have Flacco and Rice. Don’t let me down Ravens!!
1:36 My WRs are Calvin and Marshall – studs. Next pick I’ll just go best available and continue to wait on TE, which means I’m looking at a sleeper like Ben Tate or Jerome Harrison or Mike Wallace. Lots of picks to go before im up again.
1;38 I hate when guys complain that “you took the guy I wanted!” Get over it, take someone else. There’s never a shortage of good options. Unless the guy did it purposely to spite you, which is often the case with crazy keith.
1:40 I’m up in a few. Lots of decent guys just went – Best, Spiller, 3 TEs, Jacobs, Portis, Jets D, Welker, Garcon, and 5 decent but not stunning WRs… mike Wallace still falling
1:42 I’m up. Okay, there’s no obvious tight end, and a glut of solid WRs, and im up again in 8 picks, so I’m looking RB . Ben Tate, Ricky Williams ….but I’m actually gonna go with Jerome Harrison. I like Tate but not fifth round. Don’t even know if he’ll play. There should be a quality WR for my next pick, there were a lot of good choices
1:43 I might actually grab a D cuz of the weird scoring .. Ravens & Steelers are not comin back - 4 Ds already gone
1:46 Went with Pittsburgh DST for two reasons: one, Baltimore went right before me, and two I was going to take Pitt anyway cuz I already had 2 Ravens and dont want to over-raven myself. Don’t think I can miss as long as Polamalu stays healthy. They’ve got to step it up defensively to make up for Bens suspension and I think they will.
1:47 I passed on WR because there were 4 or 5 options that were similar, and frankly I liked some of the options down the list a little more … Mike Wallace, Aromashadu, Driver, Dez Bryant, Braylon … all good #3 WRs especially in a league where you only start 2 WRs.
1:47 but in a normal 3 WRs league, I woulda went with Wallace instead of the Pitt D
1:49 one of the guys in the league is PISSED that McNabb just went right before him. Umm, if you don’t have a QB yet that’s your problem, and why did you want McNabb so bad anyway. His response to the pick was “WHAT the fu*k you mother FU*KER! he was MINE!!” Wow, didnt know mcnabb could encite that kind of anger in anyone. except of course terrel owens.
1:51 I’m up and of course Mike Wallace went one pick in front of me … Went with Dez Bryant who I don’t think is much of a step down from Wallace. love those cowboys.
1:52 Breaston and Cooley and LT and Eagles D and Maclin and Maroney just went .. gotta love a run of 6 straight bad picks. I’m almost up again
1:52 All the quality TEs are gone so rather than take Visanthe I’m gonna wait til the very end and get whoever is there .. stockpile on RB and WR for now. OK im next
1:54 went with Reggie Bush I’m ashamed to say, not that I would ever do this in a normal league but he wasn’t coming back to me, and the 6 points for return TDs plus the big-yard bonus make him worthwhile. I don’t think Pierre stays healthy for what its worth so this could be a good pick
1:55 dangit. I cant believe I just took Reggie Bush … i hate myself.
1;57 11 TEs have been drafted now, which probably means none will go from here on out. So I’m safe to keep putting it off. Maybe I’ll take a bckup QB in case Flacco struggles? Flac’s bye is 8, that’s late enough that I’m not gonna worry about finding the right guy for that week .. someone will get hurt or emerge before then
1:57 a few QB sleepers left .. Henne, Sanchez, Moore .. but I should be able to get one of them after the draft as a free agent so I’ll stick with Flacco and draft RB and WRs that will otherwise go elsewhere
1:58 I’m liking Aromashadu if he stays
1:58 otherwise Donald Brown
2:01.. some dork just took his second TE in dustin keller … I am up. with 8 picks between this pick and the next I’ll likely get Brown AND Aromashadu.
2:02 just took Aroma ...the #1 WR on a mike martz offense ... I now have 4 WR 3 RB and 1 QB plus my DST
2:02 the benches in this league are 8 instead of 5 … makes for more depth. Love it.
2:02 four picks left and Donald Brown still 3 down on the RB list … how can the Colts potential starting RB fall to the 10th round???
2:03 I love how fast this draft is moving .. I’m up … and just took Brown, largely because Malcolm Floyd (the other guy I was considering ) went just in front of me
2:04 how does Floyd fall to the 10th round? He’s only the #1 WR on san diego. I don’t care if he’s good or not, how can he not be productive?? (to be fair, Gates is the #1 "receiver" while Jackson is out, but still, Floyd has got to be better than a 10th round pick … I mean Austin Collie just went, come on
2:06 HAA funniest pick of the day … Roy Williams just went! He’ll be great as the cowboys sixth receiving option Ha Ha Ha HA HA
2:06 My team so far : Flacco, Rice/Felix, Calvin/Marshall, TE to be named later, Steeler D , and bench of Jerome Harrison, Dez Bryant, Aromashadu, Reggie Bush, and D Brown. I think I’m all set on WRs since it’ll be hard to ever take Calvin or Marshall out of the lineup. with 5 rounds to go, and 1 has to be kicker, I’ll take a QB, TE, K, and 2 RBs?
2:09 Still lots of potential bargains and studs on the board – several are rookies. Demaryius Thomas, montario hardesty, dexter mccluster, basically all the guys with awesome names
2:10 oh, and Tashard choice, the perfect handcuff for Felix
2;11 but can I pass on julian Edelman, otherwise known as 5 weeks of having wes welker
2:12 im on the clock … edleman… Choice… Edelman… Choice….what a difficult “choice”
2:12 I chose Choice
2:13 six running backs oughta do it for now
2:14 checking out the tight ends … and they look EXTREMELY bleak. Fred davis, Todd heap, Brandon Pettigrew, who do I feel lucky with … yikes … ill keep waiting until its too late. None of these fools are going anytime soon
2:17 managed to grab Edelman in the 13th round! Possible kick returner which could be added value. Now I gotta go TE QB K in the next 3 rounds … although there’s no QB worth drafting when the rest will become Free agents. Henne is gone. Maybe I should take another D? maybe another WR cuz there’s so darn many I still want. Hard to pass up chaz Schilens for matt moore.
2:19 the guys just arranged a Jonathon Stewart for Greg Jennings trade. What a ripoff for niner nation who is losing a top 10 WR for a barely top 20 RB. Especially in this yardage-based league, stewart has even less value and Jennings has even more. Terrible trade for niner nation, but great one for los Bandeleros
2:20 all the kickers are flying off the board now. Why would you EVER take a kicker in anything but the last round
2:22 im next . took Schilens. So I have 6 RBs and 6 WRs. Sue me.
2:23 took cleveland’s ben Watson with second-to-last pick. Likely will drop him before week 1 and play the matchup, though if memory serves me the browns play tampa week 1 so that might work. Biggest flaw of this draft was waiting on TE until now. Wont do that again. I missed the run in rounds 7-8 where I coulda grabbed a cooley or a witten. oh well, that’s why this is a practice draft
2:24 with my last pick and mandatory kicker, I will take … Sebastian Janikowski, because 50+ are rewarded with 6 points and I like his week 1 matchup @ Tennessee who has a terrible defense. Will likely drop Sebastian after week 1 unless the raiders offense looks good. Which is possible.
2:27 ok,well.I have just 1 QB in Flacco, which is not ideal, but I’m high on Flacco (super bowl MVP) and there are plenty of poential backups in free agency. I got GREAT RBs in Rice, Felix, and 4 potential stud sleepers – Harrison, Don Brown, Bush and Choice. The Choice/Felix combo will be great, especially if one guy gets hurt. Two top 10 WRs in Calvin and Marshall and they'll be my starters except on byes and Revis weeks, and decent depth with Edelman (who will likely be dropable after week 5), Dez Bryant, Aromashadu and Schilins. Lots of sleeper WRs but few sure things. That was a mistake. Should have mixed in a Derrick Mason reliable guy. Terrible TE with Watson but I love the Steeler D. possibly arranged a trade with los banderlos to give him Jerome Harrison for hines ward. He’s got no RBs. That’s the reason I draft 6 WRs and 6 RBs – you can trade them without a worry. Now I just gotta find someone who will trade me their TE.
2:28 with Flacco/Rice I’m either winning this league or finishing last. Go Ravens!
12:54 PM I just joined a Yahoo league. 12 teams, standard scoring. The only difference is that return TDs are worth 6, so Cribbs and Hester have some value as do Reggie Bush and Wes Welker. I’m picking 5th overall. Knowing that AP and CJ will be gone, I’m hoping for Rice or MJD to fall to me, but expecting them not to. Do I take Andre with pick #5, or Turner, or a QB? Draft starts in 14 minutes.
12:52 PM So far I’m the only person in this draft room. Hmm…
12:53 PM The weirdest thing about this league is the scoring for defenses. 20 points for a shutout, 17 for 1-6 points, and 14 for 7-13 points, plus sacks and turnovers, but no scoring for yards. So how valuable are the Ravens or Steelers or Jets? Third round? I mean the Ravens are going to average 30+ in this league
12:55 The guy with pick 8 just joined and he’s already complaining that it’s unfair that he doesn’t get Chris Johnson. Some people are just such ass -clowns.
12:57 Oh, the other cool thing about this league is bonus points for every 50 yard interval. 100 yards rushing is worth a 2 point bonus, 150 is 4, and 200 yards is 6. Same for receivers. And QBs get a 2 point bonus at 300 yards, 4 points at 400 and 6 points at 500. I like that. All leagues should do that.
12:58 I think the bonus thing makes CJ just a little more valuable than AP, and also drops Randy Moss’s value significantly. It makes TD vultures less appealing too.
12:59 here we go …
1:01 CJ goes first, AP goes second, and the trade offers come flying in
1:02 Los Bandeleros just offered his 1,2,3 picks for CJ, to which Bill Allen said “NO f**ing way bitch.” I like this league already.
1:05 After TitanMania takes Jones-Drew third, I catch a break as Turner goes to 4 and I snatch Ray Rice without turning back. Love that Baltimore offense.
1:07 Picks 7 and 8 take Andre Johnson and Aaron Rodgers … my how the fantasy world has changed. Seems like just about everybody has the same thought process as me – take the 7 good running backs and then sit back and wait. Gore went 6; Steven Jackson still falling
1:08 Brees, followed by a shocker in Mendenhall. Reeally? Mendenhall over Steven Jackson??
1:10 Ryan Matthews just went thirteenth overall. He’s a rookie. He’s never played a down in his life. Wow. He just went ahead of Steven “2000 all-purpose yards” Jackson
1:11 Shonn Greene, Tom Brady, Steve Jackson, Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne all go in a span of 30 seconds
1:12 Three picks til me and I’m looking at Marshall or Roddy White
1:12 Moss and DeAngelo just went, I’m next
1:13 Miles Austin goes – pretty smart pick. Okay, Marshall or White? White or Marshall? Uh, screw it.
1:14 I just took Calvin Johnson.
1:14 He’ll have some crap games, but also some explosions and I like him in the bonus yards scoring system. I’ve seen Calvin rank as high as 2 among WRs, some fantasy xperts really like the pieces Detroit has surrounded him with.
1:16 The guys are arguing about who’s goin to the super bowl. I threw out my Ravens prediction and took some flack. But Heavy Hitterz likes the Bears and Niner Nation likes, of course, the Niners. So I’m waay closer than those two morons.
1:17 Oh, so Ryan Grant, Fitzgerald, Rivers, and ELI MANNING just went. Yes, Eli went in the second round. Looks like I might get Marshall or White after all.
1:18 The first Steve Smith off the board is of the Giants variety.
1:20 I lucked out as Jamaal Charles and Colston (HA!) went right ahead of me. I took Marshall, and just cemented a core 3 guys who will each have 1000 yards and 8 TDs. Next I gotta look at QB – hoping Romo will slip to me but doubt it.
1:22 Just about everyone’s in here and the picks are flying off the board – Roddy White, Romo (dangit), Schaub, Vincent Jackson (idiot), Dallas Clark (too soon), and Sidney Rice. And there goes DeSean Jackson, and Boldin, and Ced Benson. I’ve still got a while. Looks like I should go RB and wait on a QB.
1:23 Favorite team name – Dirty Sanchize
1:24 There goes Beanie Wells – laughably bad pick this early when you could have gotten a handful of identical RBs. If no one stands out at the position you want, just take a different position. Best player available was not beanie.
1;27 Ronnie Brown and McCoy just went, and then Gates. I’m up next. Liking me some Felix Jones and thinking I’ll wait on a QB – and take either Flacco or Ryan in a couple rounds. Fortunately the guy ahead of me is taking his entire 2 minutes so i can think.
1:29 And… he took Vernon Davis. Wow.
1:30 I went with Felix. This league only starts 2 WRs instead of 3, otherwise I might have stretched for Carolina Steve Smith or Sims-Walker or Ochocinco. But I thought Felix was considerably better than the rest of the RBs on the board (Addai, Moreno, Forte…)
1:32 More picks flying … Ocho, Addai, Harvin, Favre, SteveSmith, Moreno, Celek, and Matt Ryan. Terrible pick with Celek. Once the top 2 TEs are gone, just wait it out people. They’re all the same. Jermichael Finley, Brent Celek, Jason Witten, it makes no difference. The Favre pick was bad too.
1:33 Shoot I’m up.
1:34 I took Flacco cuz with 15 picks until my next pick he was not coming back to me (he was third QB on autorank board) and I needed a QB now that I have RB RB WR WR
1:34 only problem is I now have Flacco and Rice. Don’t let me down Ravens!!
1:36 My WRs are Calvin and Marshall – studs. Next pick I’ll just go best available and continue to wait on TE, which means I’m looking at a sleeper like Ben Tate or Jerome Harrison or Mike Wallace. Lots of picks to go before im up again.
1;38 I hate when guys complain that “you took the guy I wanted!” Get over it, take someone else. There’s never a shortage of good options. Unless the guy did it purposely to spite you, which is often the case with crazy keith.
1:40 I’m up in a few. Lots of decent guys just went – Best, Spiller, 3 TEs, Jacobs, Portis, Jets D, Welker, Garcon, and 5 decent but not stunning WRs… mike Wallace still falling
1:42 I’m up. Okay, there’s no obvious tight end, and a glut of solid WRs, and im up again in 8 picks, so I’m looking RB . Ben Tate, Ricky Williams ….but I’m actually gonna go with Jerome Harrison. I like Tate but not fifth round. Don’t even know if he’ll play. There should be a quality WR for my next pick, there were a lot of good choices
1:43 I might actually grab a D cuz of the weird scoring .. Ravens & Steelers are not comin back - 4 Ds already gone
1:46 Went with Pittsburgh DST for two reasons: one, Baltimore went right before me, and two I was going to take Pitt anyway cuz I already had 2 Ravens and dont want to over-raven myself. Don’t think I can miss as long as Polamalu stays healthy. They’ve got to step it up defensively to make up for Bens suspension and I think they will.
1:47 I passed on WR because there were 4 or 5 options that were similar, and frankly I liked some of the options down the list a little more … Mike Wallace, Aromashadu, Driver, Dez Bryant, Braylon … all good #3 WRs especially in a league where you only start 2 WRs.
1:47 but in a normal 3 WRs league, I woulda went with Wallace instead of the Pitt D
1:49 one of the guys in the league is PISSED that McNabb just went right before him. Umm, if you don’t have a QB yet that’s your problem, and why did you want McNabb so bad anyway. His response to the pick was “WHAT the fu*k you mother FU*KER! he was MINE!!” Wow, didnt know mcnabb could encite that kind of anger in anyone. except of course terrel owens.
1:51 I’m up and of course Mike Wallace went one pick in front of me … Went with Dez Bryant who I don’t think is much of a step down from Wallace. love those cowboys.
1:52 Breaston and Cooley and LT and Eagles D and Maclin and Maroney just went .. gotta love a run of 6 straight bad picks. I’m almost up again
1:52 All the quality TEs are gone so rather than take Visanthe I’m gonna wait til the very end and get whoever is there .. stockpile on RB and WR for now. OK im next
1:54 went with Reggie Bush I’m ashamed to say, not that I would ever do this in a normal league but he wasn’t coming back to me, and the 6 points for return TDs plus the big-yard bonus make him worthwhile. I don’t think Pierre stays healthy for what its worth so this could be a good pick
1:55 dangit. I cant believe I just took Reggie Bush … i hate myself.
1;57 11 TEs have been drafted now, which probably means none will go from here on out. So I’m safe to keep putting it off. Maybe I’ll take a bckup QB in case Flacco struggles? Flac’s bye is 8, that’s late enough that I’m not gonna worry about finding the right guy for that week .. someone will get hurt or emerge before then
1:57 a few QB sleepers left .. Henne, Sanchez, Moore .. but I should be able to get one of them after the draft as a free agent so I’ll stick with Flacco and draft RB and WRs that will otherwise go elsewhere
1:58 I’m liking Aromashadu if he stays
1:58 otherwise Donald Brown
2:01.. some dork just took his second TE in dustin keller … I am up. with 8 picks between this pick and the next I’ll likely get Brown AND Aromashadu.
2:02 just took Aroma ...the #1 WR on a mike martz offense ... I now have 4 WR 3 RB and 1 QB plus my DST
2:02 the benches in this league are 8 instead of 5 … makes for more depth. Love it.
2:02 four picks left and Donald Brown still 3 down on the RB list … how can the Colts potential starting RB fall to the 10th round???
2:03 I love how fast this draft is moving .. I’m up … and just took Brown, largely because Malcolm Floyd (the other guy I was considering ) went just in front of me
2:04 how does Floyd fall to the 10th round? He’s only the #1 WR on san diego. I don’t care if he’s good or not, how can he not be productive?? (to be fair, Gates is the #1 "receiver" while Jackson is out, but still, Floyd has got to be better than a 10th round pick … I mean Austin Collie just went, come on
2:06 HAA funniest pick of the day … Roy Williams just went! He’ll be great as the cowboys sixth receiving option Ha Ha Ha HA HA
2:06 My team so far : Flacco, Rice/Felix, Calvin/Marshall, TE to be named later, Steeler D , and bench of Jerome Harrison, Dez Bryant, Aromashadu, Reggie Bush, and D Brown. I think I’m all set on WRs since it’ll be hard to ever take Calvin or Marshall out of the lineup. with 5 rounds to go, and 1 has to be kicker, I’ll take a QB, TE, K, and 2 RBs?
2:09 Still lots of potential bargains and studs on the board – several are rookies. Demaryius Thomas, montario hardesty, dexter mccluster, basically all the guys with awesome names
2:10 oh, and Tashard choice, the perfect handcuff for Felix
2;11 but can I pass on julian Edelman, otherwise known as 5 weeks of having wes welker
2:12 im on the clock … edleman… Choice… Edelman… Choice….what a difficult “choice”
2:12 I chose Choice
2:13 six running backs oughta do it for now
2:14 checking out the tight ends … and they look EXTREMELY bleak. Fred davis, Todd heap, Brandon Pettigrew, who do I feel lucky with … yikes … ill keep waiting until its too late. None of these fools are going anytime soon
2:17 managed to grab Edelman in the 13th round! Possible kick returner which could be added value. Now I gotta go TE QB K in the next 3 rounds … although there’s no QB worth drafting when the rest will become Free agents. Henne is gone. Maybe I should take another D? maybe another WR cuz there’s so darn many I still want. Hard to pass up chaz Schilens for matt moore.
2:19 the guys just arranged a Jonathon Stewart for Greg Jennings trade. What a ripoff for niner nation who is losing a top 10 WR for a barely top 20 RB. Especially in this yardage-based league, stewart has even less value and Jennings has even more. Terrible trade for niner nation, but great one for los Bandeleros
2:20 all the kickers are flying off the board now. Why would you EVER take a kicker in anything but the last round
2:22 im next . took Schilens. So I have 6 RBs and 6 WRs. Sue me.
2:23 took cleveland’s ben Watson with second-to-last pick. Likely will drop him before week 1 and play the matchup, though if memory serves me the browns play tampa week 1 so that might work. Biggest flaw of this draft was waiting on TE until now. Wont do that again. I missed the run in rounds 7-8 where I coulda grabbed a cooley or a witten. oh well, that’s why this is a practice draft
2:24 with my last pick and mandatory kicker, I will take … Sebastian Janikowski, because 50+ are rewarded with 6 points and I like his week 1 matchup @ Tennessee who has a terrible defense. Will likely drop Sebastian after week 1 unless the raiders offense looks good. Which is possible.
2:27 ok,well.I have just 1 QB in Flacco, which is not ideal, but I’m high on Flacco (super bowl MVP) and there are plenty of poential backups in free agency. I got GREAT RBs in Rice, Felix, and 4 potential stud sleepers – Harrison, Don Brown, Bush and Choice. The Choice/Felix combo will be great, especially if one guy gets hurt. Two top 10 WRs in Calvin and Marshall and they'll be my starters except on byes and Revis weeks, and decent depth with Edelman (who will likely be dropable after week 5), Dez Bryant, Aromashadu and Schilins. Lots of sleeper WRs but few sure things. That was a mistake. Should have mixed in a Derrick Mason reliable guy. Terrible TE with Watson but I love the Steeler D. possibly arranged a trade with los banderlos to give him Jerome Harrison for hines ward. He’s got no RBs. That’s the reason I draft 6 WRs and 6 RBs – you can trade them without a worry. Now I just gotta find someone who will trade me their TE.
2:28 with Flacco/Rice I’m either winning this league or finishing last. Go Ravens!
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Here is my final top 117
Fantasy Cheat Sheet – Top 117
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN
2. Chris Johnson, TEN
3. Ray Rice, BAL
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
5. Andre Johnson, HOU
6. Peyton Manning, IND
7. Aaron Rodgers, GB
8. Michael Turner, ATL
9. Steven Jackson, STL
10. Randy Moss, NE
11. Phillip Rivers, SD
12. Frank Gore, SF
13. Brandon Marshall, MIA
14. Reggie Wayne, IND
15. Roddy White, ATL
16. Drew Brees, NO*
17. Anquan Boldin, BAL
18. Tom Brady, NE
19. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
20. Tony Romo, DAL
21. Calvin Johnson, DET
22. Greg Jennings, GB
23. Miles Austin, DAL
24. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
25. Sidney Rice, MIN
26. Steve Smith, CAR
27. DeSean Jackson, PHI
28. Marques Colston, NO*
29. Matt Ryan, ATL
30. Matt Schaub, HOU
31. Ronnie Brown, MIA
32. Ryan Grant, GB
33. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
34. Felix Jones, DAL
35. LeSean McCoy, PHI
36. Joe Flacco, BAL
37. Shonn Greene, NYJ
38. Chad Johnson, CIN*
39. Dallas Clark, IND
40. Ryan Matthews, SD
41. Matt Forte, CHI
42. Antonio Gates, SD
43. Hines Ward, PIT
44. Michael Crabtree, SF
45. Percy Harvin, MIN
46. Clinton Portis, WAS
47. Knowshon Moreno, DEN
48. Cedric Benson, CIN*
49. Wes Welker, NE
50. Mike Wallace, PIT
51. Steve Smith, NYG
52. Dez Bryant, DAL
53. Pierre Thomas, NO
54. Jamaal Charles, KC
55. Jerome Harrison, CLE
56. Tony Gonzalez, ATL
57. Joseph Addai, IND
58. Beanie Wells, ARZ
59. Ben Tate, HOU
60. Tashard Choice, DAL
61. Jonathon Stewart, CAR
62. CJ Spiller, BUF
63. Donovan McNabb, WAS
64. Brett Favre, MIN
65. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA*
66. Santonio Holmes, NYJ
67. Brent Celek, PHI
68. Julian Edelman, NE
69. Dwayne Bowe, KC*
70. Brandon Jacobs, NYG
71. Willis McGahee, NYG
72. Vernon Davis, SF
73. Jason Witten, DAL
74. Owen Daniels, HOU
75. Donald Driver, GB
76. Braylon Edwards, NYJ
77. Eddie Royal, DEN
78. Mike Sims-Walker, JAX
79. Darren McFadden, OAK
80. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
81. Jahvid Best, DET
82. Pittsburgh DST
83. Baltimore DST
84. Jermichael Finley, GB
85. Chris Cooley, WAS
86. Zach Miller, OAK
87. Laurent Robinson, STL
88. Anthony Gonzalez, IND
89. Pierre Garcon, IND
90. Michael Jenkins, ATL
91. Antonio Bryant, CIN
92. Devery Henderson, NO
93a. Johnny Know, CHI
93b. Devin Aromashadu, CHI
94. Malcolm Floyd, SD
95. Lee Evans, BUF
96. Chaz Schilens, OAK
97. Demaryius Thomas, DEN
98. Carson Palmer, CIN
99. Jay Cutler, CHI*
100. Kevin Kolb, PHI
101. Marc Sanchez, NYJ
102. Chad Henne, MIA
103. Alex Smith, SF
104. Michael Bush, OAK
105. LaDanian Tomlinson, NYJ
106. Reggie Bush, NO
107. Marion Barber, DAL
108. Justin Forsett, SEA
109. Darren Sproles, SD
110. Donald Brown, IND
111. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
112. Derrick Mason, BAL
113. Jeremy Maclin, PHI
114. Kevin Walter, HOU
115. Nate Burleson, DET
116. Hakeem Nicks, NYG
117. James Jones, GB
* indicates players I won’t be drafting for various reasons (injuries or spite) but I am simply ranking them appropriately so as to not seem like an idiot, when in reality I wouldn’t draft Ochocinco in the 12th round
I'm going to be taking a few days off to give you all time to read the full NFC and AFC Previews and the position rankings and give some comments and feedback. Since I've written over 20,000 words about the NFL in the last couple weeks I thought I'd take a little break. I'm gonna do a couple mock fantasy drafts using my rankings and see how I like my teams. Maybe an updated Lions preview after that or some thoughts on the NBA once LeBron makes his pick tonight.
Peace be the journey.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet – Top 117
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN
2. Chris Johnson, TEN
3. Ray Rice, BAL
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
5. Andre Johnson, HOU
6. Peyton Manning, IND
7. Aaron Rodgers, GB
8. Michael Turner, ATL
9. Steven Jackson, STL
10. Randy Moss, NE
11. Phillip Rivers, SD
12. Frank Gore, SF
13. Brandon Marshall, MIA
14. Reggie Wayne, IND
15. Roddy White, ATL
16. Drew Brees, NO*
17. Anquan Boldin, BAL
18. Tom Brady, NE
19. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
20. Tony Romo, DAL
21. Calvin Johnson, DET
22. Greg Jennings, GB
23. Miles Austin, DAL
24. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
25. Sidney Rice, MIN
26. Steve Smith, CAR
27. DeSean Jackson, PHI
28. Marques Colston, NO*
29. Matt Ryan, ATL
30. Matt Schaub, HOU
31. Ronnie Brown, MIA
32. Ryan Grant, GB
33. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
34. Felix Jones, DAL
35. LeSean McCoy, PHI
36. Joe Flacco, BAL
37. Shonn Greene, NYJ
38. Chad Johnson, CIN*
39. Dallas Clark, IND
40. Ryan Matthews, SD
41. Matt Forte, CHI
42. Antonio Gates, SD
43. Hines Ward, PIT
44. Michael Crabtree, SF
45. Percy Harvin, MIN
46. Clinton Portis, WAS
47. Knowshon Moreno, DEN
48. Cedric Benson, CIN*
49. Wes Welker, NE
50. Mike Wallace, PIT
51. Steve Smith, NYG
52. Dez Bryant, DAL
53. Pierre Thomas, NO
54. Jamaal Charles, KC
55. Jerome Harrison, CLE
56. Tony Gonzalez, ATL
57. Joseph Addai, IND
58. Beanie Wells, ARZ
59. Ben Tate, HOU
60. Tashard Choice, DAL
61. Jonathon Stewart, CAR
62. CJ Spiller, BUF
63. Donovan McNabb, WAS
64. Brett Favre, MIN
65. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA*
66. Santonio Holmes, NYJ
67. Brent Celek, PHI
68. Julian Edelman, NE
69. Dwayne Bowe, KC*
70. Brandon Jacobs, NYG
71. Willis McGahee, NYG
72. Vernon Davis, SF
73. Jason Witten, DAL
74. Owen Daniels, HOU
75. Donald Driver, GB
76. Braylon Edwards, NYJ
77. Eddie Royal, DEN
78. Mike Sims-Walker, JAX
79. Darren McFadden, OAK
80. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
81. Jahvid Best, DET
82. Pittsburgh DST
83. Baltimore DST
84. Jermichael Finley, GB
85. Chris Cooley, WAS
86. Zach Miller, OAK
87. Laurent Robinson, STL
88. Anthony Gonzalez, IND
89. Pierre Garcon, IND
90. Michael Jenkins, ATL
91. Antonio Bryant, CIN
92. Devery Henderson, NO
93a. Johnny Know, CHI
93b. Devin Aromashadu, CHI
94. Malcolm Floyd, SD
95. Lee Evans, BUF
96. Chaz Schilens, OAK
97. Demaryius Thomas, DEN
98. Carson Palmer, CIN
99. Jay Cutler, CHI*
100. Kevin Kolb, PHI
101. Marc Sanchez, NYJ
102. Chad Henne, MIA
103. Alex Smith, SF
104. Michael Bush, OAK
105. LaDanian Tomlinson, NYJ
106. Reggie Bush, NO
107. Marion Barber, DAL
108. Justin Forsett, SEA
109. Darren Sproles, SD
110. Donald Brown, IND
111. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
112. Derrick Mason, BAL
113. Jeremy Maclin, PHI
114. Kevin Walter, HOU
115. Nate Burleson, DET
116. Hakeem Nicks, NYG
117. James Jones, GB
* indicates players I won’t be drafting for various reasons (injuries or spite) but I am simply ranking them appropriately so as to not seem like an idiot, when in reality I wouldn’t draft Ochocinco in the 12th round
I'm going to be taking a few days off to give you all time to read the full NFC and AFC Previews and the position rankings and give some comments and feedback. Since I've written over 20,000 words about the NFL in the last couple weeks I thought I'd take a little break. I'm gonna do a couple mock fantasy drafts using my rankings and see how I like my teams. Maybe an updated Lions preview after that or some thoughts on the NBA once LeBron makes his pick tonight.
Peace be the journey.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
LeBronimo
Seeing as how a huge story could break any minute now, I thought I'd post some official predictions as to what will happen with the NBA free agents. It will begin with the LeBron domino (or, the LeBronimo) sometime tomorrow or Thursday (although it technically began with Amare's commitment to the Knicks) and then all the other pieces will fall into place.
The numbskulls at ESPN have all predicted that LeBron will remain in Cleveland, but they couldn't be more wrong. It's a decision between New York and New Jersey right now, with Chicago in third. Cleveland is a distant fourth, and the Clippers and Heat are out of the discussion.
As much as LeBron wants to play with Derrick Rose, I think the shadow of MJ is keeping him from Chicago. I think he wants to play in Brooklyn, but the Nets aren't moving there until 2012 and he doesn't want to waste two seasons in New Jersey. I think the allure of being the best Knick of all time is too enticing for him to pass up, as well as creating a legacy as perhaps the greatest New York athlete of all time. He wants to be the "global icon" and there's no better place to do that than the biggest city in America.
Just like I predicted a couple months ago, LeBron will be a New York Knick in 2010. Probably within 48 hours. I think Amare Stoudemire does affect the decision positively, but I think it would have happened either way.
Once that happens, Chicago will pull the trigger on Wade. They're close, but waiting to hear for sure what LeBron's going to do. But I think Wade is ready to commit to Chicago, his home town, and will sign there within 24 hours of LeBron's announcement.
Shortly after Wade's arrival, Chris Bosh will join him in Chicago. Bosh's priority from day 1 of free agency has been to join either LBJ or D-Wade; he's tired of carrying the load and wants to be the sidekick for a few seasons. Wade+Bosh+Rose will actually give Chicago the best team in the NBA, although the Knicks and Lakers will be very good. Next season is going to be loads of fun.
With Dirk and Pierce and Joe Johnson staying put, the next big domino to fall is Carlos Boozer. I thought he would go wherever Bosh doesn't go, which will end up being Miami. But if Boozer is wise, he'll opt to stay in Utah since Miami without Wade is a wasteland. So Carlos remains in Utah yet again.
Now that the Knicks have Amare, their need to re-sign David Lee is diminished and he's up for grabs. Unfortunately for the Nets, he's their constellation prize. But he is a perfect fit there - a goofy white guy in New Jersey playing with Brook Lopez.
There's a lot of talk about Carmelo Anthony's upcoming free agency next summer, as well as Kevin Durant's. I'll squash those rumors right now and let you all know - both will be signed to contract extensions before September and locked into their current teams for another 4 years and $100 million. Denver and Oklahoma City don't want to risk what Cleveland's going through now.
Speaking of Cleveland, they'll have loads of cap room to spare once LeBron is a Knick and all the others have gone their ways. So too will Miami. So what will be their respective fates? Well, it's bleak. Let's just say it won't be pretty. Neither team will be making the playoffs next season; in fact, neither will win more than 30 games. There has to be a couple losers in this free agency, and sorry Cleveland and Miami, but you're it.
There are a few unsettled situations left to be resolved. One is Manu Ginobili. Another is Ray Allen. I think both will stay put, but the Nets will be willing to overpay either guy since they didn't get Lebron. They may successful steal Ginobili, who will probably be eager to join the much less competitive Eastern Conference. Allen will stay in Beantown for one more shot at a ring.
Then there's Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady and Shaq - three free agents who would have been coveted 5 seasons ago but are now very late afterthoughts. I think Houston has to re-sign Yao after losing the Bosh sweepstakes, and McGrady goes somewhere for a minimum contract, like the Kings. Shaq will replace Rasheed as Boston's backup big man.
And that leaves two wildly overrated shooting guards left in free agency - Richard Jefferson and Michael "Always Injured" Redd. I think the Spurs re-sign Jefferson to a one-year deal so they can get him off the books next season in order to keep Duncan next summer, and I think Redd can't find any love from the Bucks now that they have Salmons locked in long-term. Actualyl he probably won't find much love anywhere, but will settle for a small deal - say 3 years and $14 million - from a scorer-needy team like Minnesota or Charlotte.
So to recap:
LeBron joins Amare on the Knicks, Wade & Bosh to the Bulls, Lee & Ginobili to the Nets, and Boozer and Allen stay put.
Your 2011 NBA Finals: Bulls over Nuggets in 6.
Fantasy Rankings: Part Six
Defenses
I'd recommend not taking a defense until the second to last round, but if you don't feel the need to grab depth at RB or WR I suppose you could grab a Tier One defense in the eight or ninth round and you probably wouldn't regret it. Although defenses tend to be just as volatile as kickers.
Tier One: The Elite
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens
Tier Two: The Elite With Tougher Schedules
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. New York Jets
5. Minnesota Vikings
Tier Three: Fantasy Efficient
6. Green Bay Packers
7. San Francisco 49ers
8. Philadelphia Eagles
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Tier Four: Better Fantasy Defenses Than Real-Life Defenses
10. New York Giants
11. New England Patriots
12. San Diego Chargers
13. Indianapolis Colts
Tier Five: The Sleepers
14. Houston Texans
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Chicago Bears
17. Cleveland Browns
18. Atlanta Falcons
19. Washington Redskins
Tier Six: Good Defense, But Very Bad Team
20. Buffalo Bills
Tier Seven: At Least They Play In Easy Divisions
21. Denver Broncos
22. New Orleans Saints
23. Arizona Cardinals
24. Oakland Raiders
25. Carolina Panthers
26. Seattle Seahawks
Tier Eight: It Sucks To Be In The AFC South
27. Jacksonville Jaguars
28. Tennessee Titans
Tier Nine: Don’t Even Consider Drafting Them, But Maybe Pick Them Up For A Good Matchup Later In The Season If You Feel Lucky, But Even Then Don’t Expect Much
29. Detroit Lions
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Kansas City Chiefs
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I'd recommend not taking a defense until the second to last round, but if you don't feel the need to grab depth at RB or WR I suppose you could grab a Tier One defense in the eight or ninth round and you probably wouldn't regret it. Although defenses tend to be just as volatile as kickers.
Tier One: The Elite
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens
Tier Two: The Elite With Tougher Schedules
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. New York Jets
5. Minnesota Vikings
Tier Three: Fantasy Efficient
6. Green Bay Packers
7. San Francisco 49ers
8. Philadelphia Eagles
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Tier Four: Better Fantasy Defenses Than Real-Life Defenses
10. New York Giants
11. New England Patriots
12. San Diego Chargers
13. Indianapolis Colts
Tier Five: The Sleepers
14. Houston Texans
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Chicago Bears
17. Cleveland Browns
18. Atlanta Falcons
19. Washington Redskins
Tier Six: Good Defense, But Very Bad Team
20. Buffalo Bills
Tier Seven: At Least They Play In Easy Divisions
21. Denver Broncos
22. New Orleans Saints
23. Arizona Cardinals
24. Oakland Raiders
25. Carolina Panthers
26. Seattle Seahawks
Tier Eight: It Sucks To Be In The AFC South
27. Jacksonville Jaguars
28. Tennessee Titans
Tier Nine: Don’t Even Consider Drafting Them, But Maybe Pick Them Up For A Good Matchup Later In The Season If You Feel Lucky, But Even Then Don’t Expect Much
29. Detroit Lions
30. St. Louis Rams
31. Kansas City Chiefs
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Rankings: Part Five
Kickers
Kickers and random and everybody knows this. But that doesn't mean we can't obsess about the best way to take advantage of their randomness and score the most points, even if it's a futile obsession. You can take the easy way out and draft kickers who play on elite offenses, or guys with the strongest legs, or be a little sneaky and take guys who play for teams that kick a lot of field goals because they can run the ball but can't throw. (ie. Bironas on the Titans). Or, you can do what I did last year and pick the guys who play the most indoor games, because statistics show that it's much easier to kick indoors with no wind or rain. But Kris Brown didn't work out for me last year, despite 11 indoor games. So I have a new strategy, one that I employed through most of last season and it fared me well.
I'm going to play kickers week by week. No emotional bonds, no attachment whatsoever. I'll pick a guy up, use him once, and throw him away like a used diaper. Only kickers with favorable matchups will be in my roster, and never will I be one of those idiots who has two kickers on the roster even for a second. If my guy is facing the Ravens, he's gone. Playing in the snow, gone. Playing at Heinz Field, gone. I don't care if he just kicked 8 field goals the week before. I don't care if he booted one in from 75 yards. No attachments. I'll cut him like a wrist.
So when drafting a kicker, I'll wait until the last round, as always, and even then I won't have a cheat sheet or even pay attention to what the other drafters have done. I hope some dummy will take a kicker in the 10th round and brag about how they landed the league's best kicker (like that means anything), and then when it's my turn to make my final pick, I'll glance at the list of kickers remaining, and take whoever has the most favorable week 1 matchup. That's it. That's the only criteria. Because week 2, I'll pick up someone else.
Here are my kicker rankings:
1. Arizona's kicker (week 1 @ St. Louis)
2. Chicago's kicker (week 1 vs. Detroit)
3. Cleveland's kicker (week 1 @ Tampa)
4. Miami's kicker (week 1 @ Buffalo)
5. San Diego's kicker (week 1 @ KC)
And if none of those guys are available, I'll just take whoever is at the top of the list. But I'm fairly sure Cleveland's kicker will not be a valued commodity on draft day. So I guess it's me and you, Phil Dawson.
Stay tuned for the final Rankings: Defenses/Special Teams.
Kickers and random and everybody knows this. But that doesn't mean we can't obsess about the best way to take advantage of their randomness and score the most points, even if it's a futile obsession. You can take the easy way out and draft kickers who play on elite offenses, or guys with the strongest legs, or be a little sneaky and take guys who play for teams that kick a lot of field goals because they can run the ball but can't throw. (ie. Bironas on the Titans). Or, you can do what I did last year and pick the guys who play the most indoor games, because statistics show that it's much easier to kick indoors with no wind or rain. But Kris Brown didn't work out for me last year, despite 11 indoor games. So I have a new strategy, one that I employed through most of last season and it fared me well.
I'm going to play kickers week by week. No emotional bonds, no attachment whatsoever. I'll pick a guy up, use him once, and throw him away like a used diaper. Only kickers with favorable matchups will be in my roster, and never will I be one of those idiots who has two kickers on the roster even for a second. If my guy is facing the Ravens, he's gone. Playing in the snow, gone. Playing at Heinz Field, gone. I don't care if he just kicked 8 field goals the week before. I don't care if he booted one in from 75 yards. No attachments. I'll cut him like a wrist.
So when drafting a kicker, I'll wait until the last round, as always, and even then I won't have a cheat sheet or even pay attention to what the other drafters have done. I hope some dummy will take a kicker in the 10th round and brag about how they landed the league's best kicker (like that means anything), and then when it's my turn to make my final pick, I'll glance at the list of kickers remaining, and take whoever has the most favorable week 1 matchup. That's it. That's the only criteria. Because week 2, I'll pick up someone else.
Here are my kicker rankings:
1. Arizona's kicker (week 1 @ St. Louis)
2. Chicago's kicker (week 1 vs. Detroit)
3. Cleveland's kicker (week 1 @ Tampa)
4. Miami's kicker (week 1 @ Buffalo)
5. San Diego's kicker (week 1 @ KC)
And if none of those guys are available, I'll just take whoever is at the top of the list. But I'm fairly sure Cleveland's kicker will not be a valued commodity on draft day. So I guess it's me and you, Phil Dawson.
Stay tuned for the final Rankings: Defenses/Special Teams.
Fantasy Rankings: Part Four
Tight Ends
The least glamorous position in fantasy football and often a total crapshoot, but not nearly as random as the DST and kicker positions. There are a few definite studs near the top, but also some excellent depth and late-round sleepers. The question, as always, is how early to begin the run of tight ends. Last year I reached on Jason Witten in the fifth round and regretted it; however, if I'd reached on Dallas Clark it would have been a great move. Or I could have waited until the last round and got TD machine Vernon Davis.
1. Dallas Clark, IND
I don't think he'll match the 10 TDs from last season, but I do think he'll notch 100 catches and 1,000 yards again. He's basically a premier slot receiver who just happens to have the letters "TE" next to his name. He's Peyton Manning's favorite target, and an easy fifth or sixth round pick.
2. Antonio Gates, SD
To me, Gates and Clark are miles ahead of the rest of the league's tight ends in terms of dependability. Gates has scored at least 8 TDs in six straight seasons, and despite being "injury-prone," he's not missed a game in two seasons. With Vincent Jackson's suspension and holdout looming, it's hard not to move Gates up ahead of Clark.
3. Tony Gonzalez, ATL
I debated Vernon Davis and Brent Celek and even Witten, but ultimately Gonzalez is the safest option as the third TE off the board. But once the first two are gone, I'd wait another two or three rounds. TEs 3-8 are interchangable to me.
4. Brent Celek, PHI
Will play the role of the primary possession receiver for the Eagles, and might be a needed safety-net for Kevin Kolb in his first season as a starter. Also a great red-zone guy.
5. Vernon Davis, SF
I love his talent, but I'm positive that he won't match the 13 TDs from a year ago, especially with Crabtree joining the team in more of a full-time role. But I'd expect another solid year of 70 catches, 800 yards, and 6-8 TDs.
6. Jason Witten, DAL
A bust last year as he scored only 2 TDs, but you can't ignore a guy who's averaged 90 catches and 1,040 yards a season since 2007. He's still only 28 years old, and plays on an elite offense with a quarterback who doubles as his best friend. But Wade Phillips uses Witten in a blocking role a little too often for fantasy owners to be happy, especially near the end zone.
7. Owen Daniels, HOU
You could easily argue that Daniels is a top 3 tight end; heck, he was on pace for 10 TDs and 1,000 yards through 8 games last year. But his third ACL rupture causes concern, as does a potential contract dispute. Still, he's the number two target on a pass-heavy offense. If you draft him, you'll probably want some TE insurance.
8. Jermichael Finley, GB
I'm not as high on him as a lot of other folks, which is odd because I can usually spot sleepers within the NFC North. He's a freakish athlete, a huge man with blazing speed, but he takes a backseat to Donald Lee as well as two top receivers, and I see James Jones as the breakout star in Green Bay this season, not Finley. Still, 60 catches, 600 yards and 5-6 TDs are to be expected in Rodgers' high-powered offense.
9. Chris Cooley, WAS
Call me crazy, but I think the Cooley-McNabb combo is a match made in heaven. At least in fantasy heaven. McNabb loves checking down to tight ends, and Cooley loves to catch the ball. He'll essentially be the slot receiver and might have a Dallas Clark-like year with 100 catches. But I'm not totally sold on the idea, hence the lowish ranking. But he's my top TE sleeper.
10. Zach Miller, OAK
My other top TE sleeper is Miller, another slot receiver with the "TE" label. He's a top three NFL tight end in terms of speed, and the only proven pass-catcher on the Raiders. If he caught 66 balls for 800 yards and 3 TDs, what might he do with Jason Campbell?
11. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN
As long as Favre is the quarterback, VS should score at least 6 times and have 500+ yards.
12. Dustin Keller, NYJ
I'm not a huge fan of Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, or Marc Sanchez, and that means the athletic tight end should benefit. He's not in there for blocking purposes at all. Not a terrible pick.
13. John Carlson, SEA
14. Greg Olsen, CHI
15. Kevin Boss, NYG
16. Heath Miller, PIT
A group of semi-talented white guys who are trappen in less-than-ideal situations.
17. Kellen Winslow, TB
Probably the safest receiving option on an awful offense.
18. Tony Scheffler, DET
If you want a homer pick you can take Scheffler and hope he delivers on what Linehan says he will.
19. Fred Davis, WAS
20. Martellus Bennett, DAL
Should be pretty productive despite being second on their depth charts. But at this point the tight ends are done being drafted and we're just being nitpicky.
21. Benjamin Watson, CLE
22. Todd Heap, BAL
23. Jeremy Shockey, NO
24. Anthony Fasano, MIA
25. Bo Scaife, TEN
26. Jermaine Gresham, CIN
27. Brandon Pettigrew, DET
28. Marcedes Lewis, JAX
29. Shawn Nelson, BUF
30. Ed Dickson, BAL
That's all I got on tight ends. Not too exciting. My advice would be that it's okay to reach in the fifth round for Clark or Gates or even Gonzalez if you really want him, but not if a guy like Anquan Boldin or Phillip Rivers is still on the board. Don't be an idiot; only make the reach if you don't like your other options. And of course, don't take Todd Heap in the third round. Just ask Mike Bartels about that.
Also, to see the infamous video of Vernon Davis that I am obsessed with, click here.
The least glamorous position in fantasy football and often a total crapshoot, but not nearly as random as the DST and kicker positions. There are a few definite studs near the top, but also some excellent depth and late-round sleepers. The question, as always, is how early to begin the run of tight ends. Last year I reached on Jason Witten in the fifth round and regretted it; however, if I'd reached on Dallas Clark it would have been a great move. Or I could have waited until the last round and got TD machine Vernon Davis.
1. Dallas Clark, IND
I don't think he'll match the 10 TDs from last season, but I do think he'll notch 100 catches and 1,000 yards again. He's basically a premier slot receiver who just happens to have the letters "TE" next to his name. He's Peyton Manning's favorite target, and an easy fifth or sixth round pick.
2. Antonio Gates, SD
To me, Gates and Clark are miles ahead of the rest of the league's tight ends in terms of dependability. Gates has scored at least 8 TDs in six straight seasons, and despite being "injury-prone," he's not missed a game in two seasons. With Vincent Jackson's suspension and holdout looming, it's hard not to move Gates up ahead of Clark.
3. Tony Gonzalez, ATL
I debated Vernon Davis and Brent Celek and even Witten, but ultimately Gonzalez is the safest option as the third TE off the board. But once the first two are gone, I'd wait another two or three rounds. TEs 3-8 are interchangable to me.
4. Brent Celek, PHI
Will play the role of the primary possession receiver for the Eagles, and might be a needed safety-net for Kevin Kolb in his first season as a starter. Also a great red-zone guy.
5. Vernon Davis, SF
I love his talent, but I'm positive that he won't match the 13 TDs from a year ago, especially with Crabtree joining the team in more of a full-time role. But I'd expect another solid year of 70 catches, 800 yards, and 6-8 TDs.
6. Jason Witten, DAL
A bust last year as he scored only 2 TDs, but you can't ignore a guy who's averaged 90 catches and 1,040 yards a season since 2007. He's still only 28 years old, and plays on an elite offense with a quarterback who doubles as his best friend. But Wade Phillips uses Witten in a blocking role a little too often for fantasy owners to be happy, especially near the end zone.
7. Owen Daniels, HOU
You could easily argue that Daniels is a top 3 tight end; heck, he was on pace for 10 TDs and 1,000 yards through 8 games last year. But his third ACL rupture causes concern, as does a potential contract dispute. Still, he's the number two target on a pass-heavy offense. If you draft him, you'll probably want some TE insurance.
8. Jermichael Finley, GB
I'm not as high on him as a lot of other folks, which is odd because I can usually spot sleepers within the NFC North. He's a freakish athlete, a huge man with blazing speed, but he takes a backseat to Donald Lee as well as two top receivers, and I see James Jones as the breakout star in Green Bay this season, not Finley. Still, 60 catches, 600 yards and 5-6 TDs are to be expected in Rodgers' high-powered offense.
9. Chris Cooley, WAS
Call me crazy, but I think the Cooley-McNabb combo is a match made in heaven. At least in fantasy heaven. McNabb loves checking down to tight ends, and Cooley loves to catch the ball. He'll essentially be the slot receiver and might have a Dallas Clark-like year with 100 catches. But I'm not totally sold on the idea, hence the lowish ranking. But he's my top TE sleeper.
10. Zach Miller, OAK
My other top TE sleeper is Miller, another slot receiver with the "TE" label. He's a top three NFL tight end in terms of speed, and the only proven pass-catcher on the Raiders. If he caught 66 balls for 800 yards and 3 TDs, what might he do with Jason Campbell?
11. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN
As long as Favre is the quarterback, VS should score at least 6 times and have 500+ yards.
12. Dustin Keller, NYJ
I'm not a huge fan of Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, or Marc Sanchez, and that means the athletic tight end should benefit. He's not in there for blocking purposes at all. Not a terrible pick.
13. John Carlson, SEA
14. Greg Olsen, CHI
15. Kevin Boss, NYG
16. Heath Miller, PIT
A group of semi-talented white guys who are trappen in less-than-ideal situations.
17. Kellen Winslow, TB
Probably the safest receiving option on an awful offense.
18. Tony Scheffler, DET
If you want a homer pick you can take Scheffler and hope he delivers on what Linehan says he will.
19. Fred Davis, WAS
20. Martellus Bennett, DAL
Should be pretty productive despite being second on their depth charts. But at this point the tight ends are done being drafted and we're just being nitpicky.
21. Benjamin Watson, CLE
22. Todd Heap, BAL
23. Jeremy Shockey, NO
24. Anthony Fasano, MIA
25. Bo Scaife, TEN
26. Jermaine Gresham, CIN
27. Brandon Pettigrew, DET
28. Marcedes Lewis, JAX
29. Shawn Nelson, BUF
30. Ed Dickson, BAL
That's all I got on tight ends. Not too exciting. My advice would be that it's okay to reach in the fifth round for Clark or Gates or even Gonzalez if you really want him, but not if a guy like Anquan Boldin or Phillip Rivers is still on the board. Don't be an idiot; only make the reach if you don't like your other options. And of course, don't take Todd Heap in the third round. Just ask Mike Bartels about that.
Also, to see the infamous video of Vernon Davis that I am obsessed with, click here.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
All Star Game Outrage!
It was bad enough that Brennan Boesch wasn't voted to play in the MLB All-Star game. He deserved it. Among AL outfielders, he's having the best year of anyone, hands down, in terms of hitting the ball. Right now, he's the second best hitter in the Majors in terms of average, and fourth in terms of power. That's not among rookies; that's among all players. The problem is, he doesn't have enough at-bats to "qualify" - whatever that means. He's only 30 ABs behind teammate Miguel Cabrera, who qualifies without a problem. What does Boesch have to do? He missed the first three weeks of the season, was called up as a rookie, and ever since has been batting more consistently, more lethally, and more successfully than anyone and everyone in the baseball world. But he's not an all-star?
In the month of May, he had a better batting average than ANYONE in the MLB. To prove it was no fluke, he had the fifth best batting average of anyone in the month of June. And to prove he's not a two-month wonder, he's hitting .538 in July, well on his way to 3 straight rookie of the month honors. It's egregious and preposterous that Boesch didn't make the AL all-star game, and was beat out by 6 outfielders, none of which boast the stats that he does.
But that's not the outrage I'm talking about. I understand why he didn't make it, and I'm fine with it. I understand that all-star games are a popularity contest, and the fans want to see the players they know and love, and Boesch is a complete unknown outside of Michigan. I get all that. Unless you cheer for the Tigers or play fantasy baseball, you probably never heard of him. Although he'll be rookie of the month three straight times and is a iron-clad lock to be Rookie of the Year, he won't be a household name for at least another season or two. He should have plenty of all-star games to look forward to, and I'm sure he's not bitter about missing this one.
The outrage is that Atlanta Braves ROOKIE outfielder Jason Heyward DID in fact make the NL all-star game, and as a STARTER no less. Let's take a quick look at the numbers:
Boesch: .344 average, .398 on-base %, .603 slugging, 12 HRs, 46 RBIs, 77 hits, 16 doubles, 3 triples, 20 walks, 45 strikeouts, 2 steals in 60 games and 224 at-bats.
Heyward: .251 average, .366 on-base %, .455 slugging, 11 HRs, 45 RBIs, 64 hits, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 42 walks, 68 strikeouts, 5 steals in 71 games and 255 at-bats.
So maybe Heyward is just a much-better all-around player? Maybe he's a better fielder? Hmmm..
Boesch: .974 fielding percentage, 3 errors, 3 outfield assists
Heyward: .968 fielding percentage, 4 errors, 0 outfield assists
So Boesch is actually a BETTER fielder according to the stats. And obviously, a much better hitter.
So how is it that Boesch will be sitting at home while Heyward is not only playing in Anahiem, but STARTING??? It's absurd, illogical, outlandish, unacceptable, disturbing, annoying, laughable, and downright inexusable. The all-star game needs to be fixed. What are we doing? Awarding mediocrity while the true "stars" watch the game from home? If it's merely a popularity contest, maybe Cal Ripken Jr. should play too. I mean, what happened to awarding the best players statistically rather than letting the idiotic fans pick the guys they hear about the most in the news? Boesch is an all-star every bit as much as Galarraga threw a perfect game, and I hate Bud Selig and the entire MLB.
And that's all I have to say about that.
I hope you enjoyed this little break from football, and stay tuned for Fantasy Football Rankings Part 4: Tight Ends.
In the month of May, he had a better batting average than ANYONE in the MLB. To prove it was no fluke, he had the fifth best batting average of anyone in the month of June. And to prove he's not a two-month wonder, he's hitting .538 in July, well on his way to 3 straight rookie of the month honors. It's egregious and preposterous that Boesch didn't make the AL all-star game, and was beat out by 6 outfielders, none of which boast the stats that he does.
But that's not the outrage I'm talking about. I understand why he didn't make it, and I'm fine with it. I understand that all-star games are a popularity contest, and the fans want to see the players they know and love, and Boesch is a complete unknown outside of Michigan. I get all that. Unless you cheer for the Tigers or play fantasy baseball, you probably never heard of him. Although he'll be rookie of the month three straight times and is a iron-clad lock to be Rookie of the Year, he won't be a household name for at least another season or two. He should have plenty of all-star games to look forward to, and I'm sure he's not bitter about missing this one.
The outrage is that Atlanta Braves ROOKIE outfielder Jason Heyward DID in fact make the NL all-star game, and as a STARTER no less. Let's take a quick look at the numbers:
Boesch: .344 average, .398 on-base %, .603 slugging, 12 HRs, 46 RBIs, 77 hits, 16 doubles, 3 triples, 20 walks, 45 strikeouts, 2 steals in 60 games and 224 at-bats.
Heyward: .251 average, .366 on-base %, .455 slugging, 11 HRs, 45 RBIs, 64 hits, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 42 walks, 68 strikeouts, 5 steals in 71 games and 255 at-bats.
So maybe Heyward is just a much-better all-around player? Maybe he's a better fielder? Hmmm..
Boesch: .974 fielding percentage, 3 errors, 3 outfield assists
Heyward: .968 fielding percentage, 4 errors, 0 outfield assists
So Boesch is actually a BETTER fielder according to the stats. And obviously, a much better hitter.
So how is it that Boesch will be sitting at home while Heyward is not only playing in Anahiem, but STARTING??? It's absurd, illogical, outlandish, unacceptable, disturbing, annoying, laughable, and downright inexusable. The all-star game needs to be fixed. What are we doing? Awarding mediocrity while the true "stars" watch the game from home? If it's merely a popularity contest, maybe Cal Ripken Jr. should play too. I mean, what happened to awarding the best players statistically rather than letting the idiotic fans pick the guys they hear about the most in the news? Boesch is an all-star every bit as much as Galarraga threw a perfect game, and I hate Bud Selig and the entire MLB.
And that's all I have to say about that.
I hope you enjoyed this little break from football, and stay tuned for Fantasy Football Rankings Part 4: Tight Ends.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Fantasy Rankings: Part Three
Wide Receivers.
Sadly, this post will not have pictures in it, because while they add such aesthetic beauty to my writing, they also mess up the format.
These rankings were the toughest yet, but I feel I did a pretty swell job. Let me know what you think.
1. Andre Johnson, HOU
Let’s just say this: I won’t hesitate at all to pick Andre Johnson with the eight overall pick.
2. Randy Moss, NE
Tough call here, but I went with Moss because of sheer TD potential.
3. Brandon Marshall, MIA
A lock for 100 receptions and 1,000 yards and 10 TDs on Miami.
4. Reggie Wayne, IND
You can’t get more safe. Or more boring.
5. Roddy White, ATL
As I’ve said before, this is a breakout year for Matt Ryan, and White will obviously be the main beneficiary. He’s one of the few safe picks at this position.
6. Anquan Boldin, BAL
I also expect a breakout year from Flacco, and Boldin will be the beneficiary in a big way. If Derrick Mason caught over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs at age 35, Boldin can certainly do better.
7. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
Wasn’t sure how far to drop Fitz down the board after the retirement of Kurt Warner. I guessed conservatively and left him in the top ten. Apparently the guys at ESPN have never seen Matt Leinart play, because they still have Larry as the third receiver on their board. We’ll see which one of us is right on that. Pretty sure it will be me.
8. Calvin Johnson, DET
Megatron is mega-talented, but you know how much I hate Matthew Stafford …CJ will have some monster games and some total goose eggs.
9. Greg Jennings, GB
With Driver hitting the 35 year old wall and having double knee surgery, it’s a safe bet that Jennings reclaims the spot as Rodgers’ favorite target and that means good things. Very good things. A whole lot more than the measly 4 TDs he had last year.
10. Miles Austin, DAL
Don’t think he’ll repeat last year’s numbers now that he’s the #1 guy, but I do think he’ll prove that he was no fluke. He’s a talented dude. And the Cowboys offense is a well-oiled machine.
11. Sidney Rice, MIN
He’ll be Brett Favre’s favorite target once again and will improve on the 8 TDs.
12. Steve Smith, CAR
The Panthers are definitely a run-first team, but that actually benefits Smith because it opens up the play-action and gives him single coverage on bombs. And that’s where he’s lethal. But keep an eye on his broken arm.
13. DeSean Jackson, PHI
A lot of cheat sheets have him as a top 5 WR. I don’t agree. Losing the strong arm of McNabb will hurt, and Kolb doesn’t have the strength or accuracy of McNabb on the long ball. Jackson will definitely NOT score 7 times from 50 yards out like he did last year.
14. Marques Colston, NO
The Saints spread the ball around so much that even their #1 receiver isn’t a great fantasy option. And I hate to keep bringing up the Madden Curse, but you know …
15. Vincent Jackson, SD
Between the holdout and the three-game suspension resulting from his DUI, he’s an obvious risk. He also might get traded. But if he signs and plays by week 4, it’s worth the risk in a big way.
16. Chad Johnson, CIN
He should score 6-8 times and have about 1,000 yards. Which makes him the third best receiver named Johnson.
17. Hines Ward, PIT
With Santonio gone, Hines will have a bigger responsibility in Pittsburgh to make big plays downfield, and that’s on top of being one of the most trusty possession receiver around.
18. Michael Crabtree, SF
Definite gamble but also huge potential reward. Crabtree was one of the best receivers in NCAA history. An entire summer of training camp should help him and Alex Smith develop a nice rapport.
19. Percy Harvin, MIN
Favre has always liked to spread the ball around and Harvin has speed up the wazoo. He’ll probably run for a good 200-300 yards as well.
20. Wes Welker, NE
Coming off an ACL tear, Welker is an obvious risk. But he seems to be progressing quickly and will be worth a draft pick if you can be patient. He’ll return with a vengeance. He and Brady have the best QB/WR rapport in the NFL.
21. Mike Wallace, PIT
As Ward gets older and slower, Wallace could become a breakout star in Steel City. Wouldn’t shock me if he replicated Holmes’s numbers from last season – 1200 yards and 5 TDs.
22. Steve Smith, NYG
A very consistent possession guy who should catch close to 100 balls, but won’t be a big TD guy at all with Nicks and Boss and Manningham in the mix.
23. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA
Returning from sports hernia surgery, Housh is yet another WR injury risk, but as the consummate possession guy he should be a safe bet for 90+ catches and 6 TDs.
24. Dez Bryant, DAL
Huge potential as the #2 receiver on a great team and a lot more talent than people realize.
25. Santonio Holmes, NYJ
Enters the season on a four-game suspension, but should be his usual productive self after that. I think he’ll easily overtake Braylon as the #1 guy on the Jets.
26. Julian Edelman, NE
Depending on how much time Welker misses, Edelman could be a major sleeper. He’ll have Welker-like numbers until Welker comes back. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to draft both guys, and drop Edelman when the time comes.
27. Dwayne Bowe, KC
Loads of talent but a complete knucklehead. If he can avoid another suspension he should be worth a spot as your #3 WR.
28. Donald Driver, GB
This is probably too high of a ranking for an old guy with bad knees, and I do think that James Jones will slowly take over Driver’s job, but being the possession receiver for the Packers is a safe gig.
29. Braylon Edwards, NYJ
He’ll be low on catches (maybe 50 or 60) but big on big-plays in the Jets’ effective play-action offense.
30. Eddie Royal, DEN
With Marshall gone, the door is wide open for Royal to emerge. But I don’t think he's a sure bet to do so.
31. Mike Sims-Walker, JAX
The go-to receiver on a rush-first offense with a mediocre QB. Safe pick but very little upside.
32. Laurent Robinson, STL
No guarantee that he’ll be the Rams’ #1 receiver, but I think he will.
33. Anthony Gonzalez, IND
34. Pierre Garcon, IND
I’ve got no idea which will be the #2 and which will be the #3. Technically Dallas Clark is the #2 receiver. But Manning will throw to anyone, as he proved last year.
35. Michael Jenkins, ATL
Should be productive if Ryan is as good as I keep saying he will be.
36. Antonio Bryant, CIN
He’ll be the downfield threat now that Ochostinko is getting a bit slower. A few big plays scattered.
37. Devery Henderson, NO
Speaking of scattered big plays, Henderson is the ultimate in feast or famine.
38. Johnny Knox, CHI
39. Devin Aromashadu, CHI
Either one of these guys have huge breakout potential, but I don’t know which will lead the Bears in receiving. Hopefully by the time of the fantasy draft we’ll know. If not, pick one and hope you get lucky.
40. Malcolm Floyd, SD
With Vincent Jackson missing some time, Floyd stands to gain a lot.
41. Lee Evans, BUF
What a shame.
42. Chaz Schilens, OAK
Here’s a big-time sleeper for you. He’ll be Jason Campbell's top receiver.
43. Demaryius Thomas, DEN
Might overtake Royal for the starting job in Denver.
44. Derrick Mason, BAL
Solid but unspectacular stats as Flacco’s possession guy.
45. Jeremy Maclin, PHI
Big-play speed but lots of options in the Philly passing game.
46. Kevin Walter, HOU
I think he might lose his job to Jacoby Jones but we’ll see.
47. Nate Burleson, DET
Should be better than Bryant Johnson was, but that’s not saying much.
48. Hakeem Nicks, NYG
Probably Eli Manning’s go-to guy in the red zone.
49. James Jones, GB
#3 receiver on a great passing offense.
50. Golden Tate, SEA
If Houshmandzadeh has a hard time recovering, Tate will probably be the go-to guy in Seattle.
The rest ...
51. Kenny Britt, TEN
52. Mario Manningham, NYG
53. Josh Morgan, SF
54. Jacoby Jones, HOU
55. Mohammad Massaquoi, CLE
56. Arrelious Benn, TB
57. Michael Clayton, TB
58. Chris Chambers, KC
59. Santana Moss, WAS
60. Devin Thomas, WAS
61. Jericho Cotchery, NYJ
62. Davonne Bess, MIA
63. Donnie Avery, STL
64. Steve Breaston, ARZ
65. Ted Ginn Jr., SF
66. Roy Williams, DAL
67. Torry Holt, NE
68. Justin Gage, TEN
69. Louis Murphy, OAK
70. Donte Stallworth, BAL
71. Robert Meachem, NO
72. Lance Moore, NO
73. Bernard Berrian, MIN
74. Nate Washington ,TEN
75. Early Doucet, ARZ
Some Final Thoughts
As I compiled this list I was stunned at how much turmoil surrounds the receiver position this season. Injuries, suspensions, contract disputes, and lousy quarterback play. There's really only 11 safe WRs this season in my opinion - Andre and Calvin Johnson, Moss, Wayne, Marshall, Roddy, Boldin, Fitzgerald, Austin, Rice, and Jennings. That's it. And I think the best way to win your fantasy league is to get two guys from this list of 11.
To do that, you've obviously got to be willing to pass on RBs and QBs early, which means you need to know which QBs and RBs to target in the third, fourth and fifth rounds. That's a tough sacrifice to make. When you're drafting Carson Palmer and the guy sitting next to you has Peyton Manning, it's going to make you feel sick. But keep in mind, you'll have two elite receivers, and he'll have Percy Harvin and Devin Aromashadu.
Obviously it all depends on the draft order. If I'm picking 12th (for the third year in a row), I will take two WRs UNLESS one of my top 7 RBs is on the board or one of my top 2 QBs. That's not a strategy set in stone but something like that. Don't make up your mind that you're going RB no matter what and then take Ryan Grant over Randy Moss. Compare the stats straight up: who's going to give you more yards and TDs, Grant or Moss? It's not even a question.
In fact, it's highly likely that Andre Johnson will have a better year in terms of yards + TDs than any running backs except Sonic and AP. My projections are somwhere around 1,500 yards and 10 TDs, though he could easily go for 15 TDs or maybe even more. Do you really trust Jones-Drew to do that, or Gore, or Turner? Can't we just not look at the positions and pick merely based on production? Shouldn't Andre be a concensus top 5 overall pick?
If you're picking in the middle to late first round, it probably makes more sense to take a RB (or maybe a top level QB) and then take an elite WR on the way back. You won't get Andre, but you'll get your choice of either Moss or Wayne. But if you pass on Steven Jackson at pick 7, he's not coming back to you. There are advantages to having a stud running back.
This year is tough, because I don't see a ton of sleeper candidates at either the RB or WR positions. None that I truly trust anyway. I see more sleepers at QB to be honest. So after the first 3 rounds, it's a total crapshoot with the backs and receivers. You might hit it big like Ray Rice last year, or you might grab Earnest Graham. The problem with fantasy football is that no one, not even the 'experts,' knows what they're talking about. You've either got to be lucky, or have a fool-proof strategy.
A few last words of advice about receivers:
-Watch out for divas, drugs, and suspensions.
-Don't draft anyone you hate.
-Don't forget the importance of YouTube.
-And lastly, above all else, do NOT take Terrell Owens.
Sadly, this post will not have pictures in it, because while they add such aesthetic beauty to my writing, they also mess up the format.
These rankings were the toughest yet, but I feel I did a pretty swell job. Let me know what you think.
1. Andre Johnson, HOU
Let’s just say this: I won’t hesitate at all to pick Andre Johnson with the eight overall pick.
2. Randy Moss, NE
Tough call here, but I went with Moss because of sheer TD potential.
3. Brandon Marshall, MIA
A lock for 100 receptions and 1,000 yards and 10 TDs on Miami.
4. Reggie Wayne, IND
You can’t get more safe. Or more boring.
5. Roddy White, ATL
As I’ve said before, this is a breakout year for Matt Ryan, and White will obviously be the main beneficiary. He’s one of the few safe picks at this position.
6. Anquan Boldin, BAL
I also expect a breakout year from Flacco, and Boldin will be the beneficiary in a big way. If Derrick Mason caught over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs at age 35, Boldin can certainly do better.
7. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
Wasn’t sure how far to drop Fitz down the board after the retirement of Kurt Warner. I guessed conservatively and left him in the top ten. Apparently the guys at ESPN have never seen Matt Leinart play, because they still have Larry as the third receiver on their board. We’ll see which one of us is right on that. Pretty sure it will be me.
8. Calvin Johnson, DET
Megatron is mega-talented, but you know how much I hate Matthew Stafford …CJ will have some monster games and some total goose eggs.
9. Greg Jennings, GB
With Driver hitting the 35 year old wall and having double knee surgery, it’s a safe bet that Jennings reclaims the spot as Rodgers’ favorite target and that means good things. Very good things. A whole lot more than the measly 4 TDs he had last year.
10. Miles Austin, DAL
Don’t think he’ll repeat last year’s numbers now that he’s the #1 guy, but I do think he’ll prove that he was no fluke. He’s a talented dude. And the Cowboys offense is a well-oiled machine.
11. Sidney Rice, MIN
He’ll be Brett Favre’s favorite target once again and will improve on the 8 TDs.
12. Steve Smith, CAR
The Panthers are definitely a run-first team, but that actually benefits Smith because it opens up the play-action and gives him single coverage on bombs. And that’s where he’s lethal. But keep an eye on his broken arm.
13. DeSean Jackson, PHI
A lot of cheat sheets have him as a top 5 WR. I don’t agree. Losing the strong arm of McNabb will hurt, and Kolb doesn’t have the strength or accuracy of McNabb on the long ball. Jackson will definitely NOT score 7 times from 50 yards out like he did last year.
14. Marques Colston, NO
The Saints spread the ball around so much that even their #1 receiver isn’t a great fantasy option. And I hate to keep bringing up the Madden Curse, but you know …
15. Vincent Jackson, SD
Between the holdout and the three-game suspension resulting from his DUI, he’s an obvious risk. He also might get traded. But if he signs and plays by week 4, it’s worth the risk in a big way.
16. Chad Johnson, CIN
He should score 6-8 times and have about 1,000 yards. Which makes him the third best receiver named Johnson.
17. Hines Ward, PIT
With Santonio gone, Hines will have a bigger responsibility in Pittsburgh to make big plays downfield, and that’s on top of being one of the most trusty possession receiver around.
18. Michael Crabtree, SF
Definite gamble but also huge potential reward. Crabtree was one of the best receivers in NCAA history. An entire summer of training camp should help him and Alex Smith develop a nice rapport.
19. Percy Harvin, MIN
Favre has always liked to spread the ball around and Harvin has speed up the wazoo. He’ll probably run for a good 200-300 yards as well.
20. Wes Welker, NE
Coming off an ACL tear, Welker is an obvious risk. But he seems to be progressing quickly and will be worth a draft pick if you can be patient. He’ll return with a vengeance. He and Brady have the best QB/WR rapport in the NFL.
21. Mike Wallace, PIT
As Ward gets older and slower, Wallace could become a breakout star in Steel City. Wouldn’t shock me if he replicated Holmes’s numbers from last season – 1200 yards and 5 TDs.
22. Steve Smith, NYG
A very consistent possession guy who should catch close to 100 balls, but won’t be a big TD guy at all with Nicks and Boss and Manningham in the mix.
23. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA
Returning from sports hernia surgery, Housh is yet another WR injury risk, but as the consummate possession guy he should be a safe bet for 90+ catches and 6 TDs.
24. Dez Bryant, DAL
Huge potential as the #2 receiver on a great team and a lot more talent than people realize.
25. Santonio Holmes, NYJ
Enters the season on a four-game suspension, but should be his usual productive self after that. I think he’ll easily overtake Braylon as the #1 guy on the Jets.
26. Julian Edelman, NE
Depending on how much time Welker misses, Edelman could be a major sleeper. He’ll have Welker-like numbers until Welker comes back. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to draft both guys, and drop Edelman when the time comes.
27. Dwayne Bowe, KC
Loads of talent but a complete knucklehead. If he can avoid another suspension he should be worth a spot as your #3 WR.
28. Donald Driver, GB
This is probably too high of a ranking for an old guy with bad knees, and I do think that James Jones will slowly take over Driver’s job, but being the possession receiver for the Packers is a safe gig.
29. Braylon Edwards, NYJ
He’ll be low on catches (maybe 50 or 60) but big on big-plays in the Jets’ effective play-action offense.
30. Eddie Royal, DEN
With Marshall gone, the door is wide open for Royal to emerge. But I don’t think he's a sure bet to do so.
31. Mike Sims-Walker, JAX
The go-to receiver on a rush-first offense with a mediocre QB. Safe pick but very little upside.
32. Laurent Robinson, STL
No guarantee that he’ll be the Rams’ #1 receiver, but I think he will.
33. Anthony Gonzalez, IND
34. Pierre Garcon, IND
I’ve got no idea which will be the #2 and which will be the #3. Technically Dallas Clark is the #2 receiver. But Manning will throw to anyone, as he proved last year.
35. Michael Jenkins, ATL
Should be productive if Ryan is as good as I keep saying he will be.
36. Antonio Bryant, CIN
He’ll be the downfield threat now that Ochostinko is getting a bit slower. A few big plays scattered.
37. Devery Henderson, NO
Speaking of scattered big plays, Henderson is the ultimate in feast or famine.
38. Johnny Knox, CHI
39. Devin Aromashadu, CHI
Either one of these guys have huge breakout potential, but I don’t know which will lead the Bears in receiving. Hopefully by the time of the fantasy draft we’ll know. If not, pick one and hope you get lucky.
40. Malcolm Floyd, SD
With Vincent Jackson missing some time, Floyd stands to gain a lot.
41. Lee Evans, BUF
What a shame.
42. Chaz Schilens, OAK
Here’s a big-time sleeper for you. He’ll be Jason Campbell's top receiver.
43. Demaryius Thomas, DEN
Might overtake Royal for the starting job in Denver.
44. Derrick Mason, BAL
Solid but unspectacular stats as Flacco’s possession guy.
45. Jeremy Maclin, PHI
Big-play speed but lots of options in the Philly passing game.
46. Kevin Walter, HOU
I think he might lose his job to Jacoby Jones but we’ll see.
47. Nate Burleson, DET
Should be better than Bryant Johnson was, but that’s not saying much.
48. Hakeem Nicks, NYG
Probably Eli Manning’s go-to guy in the red zone.
49. James Jones, GB
#3 receiver on a great passing offense.
50. Golden Tate, SEA
If Houshmandzadeh has a hard time recovering, Tate will probably be the go-to guy in Seattle.
The rest ...
51. Kenny Britt, TEN
52. Mario Manningham, NYG
53. Josh Morgan, SF
54. Jacoby Jones, HOU
55. Mohammad Massaquoi, CLE
56. Arrelious Benn, TB
57. Michael Clayton, TB
58. Chris Chambers, KC
59. Santana Moss, WAS
60. Devin Thomas, WAS
61. Jericho Cotchery, NYJ
62. Davonne Bess, MIA
63. Donnie Avery, STL
64. Steve Breaston, ARZ
65. Ted Ginn Jr., SF
66. Roy Williams, DAL
67. Torry Holt, NE
68. Justin Gage, TEN
69. Louis Murphy, OAK
70. Donte Stallworth, BAL
71. Robert Meachem, NO
72. Lance Moore, NO
73. Bernard Berrian, MIN
74. Nate Washington ,TEN
75. Early Doucet, ARZ
Some Final Thoughts
As I compiled this list I was stunned at how much turmoil surrounds the receiver position this season. Injuries, suspensions, contract disputes, and lousy quarterback play. There's really only 11 safe WRs this season in my opinion - Andre and Calvin Johnson, Moss, Wayne, Marshall, Roddy, Boldin, Fitzgerald, Austin, Rice, and Jennings. That's it. And I think the best way to win your fantasy league is to get two guys from this list of 11.
To do that, you've obviously got to be willing to pass on RBs and QBs early, which means you need to know which QBs and RBs to target in the third, fourth and fifth rounds. That's a tough sacrifice to make. When you're drafting Carson Palmer and the guy sitting next to you has Peyton Manning, it's going to make you feel sick. But keep in mind, you'll have two elite receivers, and he'll have Percy Harvin and Devin Aromashadu.
Obviously it all depends on the draft order. If I'm picking 12th (for the third year in a row), I will take two WRs UNLESS one of my top 7 RBs is on the board or one of my top 2 QBs. That's not a strategy set in stone but something like that. Don't make up your mind that you're going RB no matter what and then take Ryan Grant over Randy Moss. Compare the stats straight up: who's going to give you more yards and TDs, Grant or Moss? It's not even a question.
In fact, it's highly likely that Andre Johnson will have a better year in terms of yards + TDs than any running backs except Sonic and AP. My projections are somwhere around 1,500 yards and 10 TDs, though he could easily go for 15 TDs or maybe even more. Do you really trust Jones-Drew to do that, or Gore, or Turner? Can't we just not look at the positions and pick merely based on production? Shouldn't Andre be a concensus top 5 overall pick?
If you're picking in the middle to late first round, it probably makes more sense to take a RB (or maybe a top level QB) and then take an elite WR on the way back. You won't get Andre, but you'll get your choice of either Moss or Wayne. But if you pass on Steven Jackson at pick 7, he's not coming back to you. There are advantages to having a stud running back.
This year is tough, because I don't see a ton of sleeper candidates at either the RB or WR positions. None that I truly trust anyway. I see more sleepers at QB to be honest. So after the first 3 rounds, it's a total crapshoot with the backs and receivers. You might hit it big like Ray Rice last year, or you might grab Earnest Graham. The problem with fantasy football is that no one, not even the 'experts,' knows what they're talking about. You've either got to be lucky, or have a fool-proof strategy.
A few last words of advice about receivers:
-Watch out for divas, drugs, and suspensions.
-Don't draft anyone you hate.
-Don't forget the importance of YouTube.
-And lastly, above all else, do NOT take Terrell Owens.
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