Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Week Two: An Anomaly

It happens every year around this time: upsets and flukes abound, and everyone overreacts. Just calm down everyone. Last year at this time the Bills were 2-0, the Vikings were 0-2, and Earnest Graham looked like the best running back in the NFL. Things change in a hurry. If a good team is 0-2, don't count them out. They're still a good team. Likewise, plenty of crappy teams start out 2-0. (Like Denver). Remember in 2007 when the Lions started 6-2 and then lost six straight?

The way I see it, I have two choices after this week. 1) Admit that I am an incompetent fool and stop talking about football, or 2) Cast this week off as an anomaly and don’t take it personally. I predicted 16 games, and got 10 of them wrong. I could have flipped a coin and done better.

It’s embarrassing. It’s retarded. I don’t even know what to say.

The Jets shouldn’t have beat the Patriots. The Titans shouldn't have blown a 2 TD lead at home. The Packers definitely should not have lost to Cincinnati in Lambeau. Flukes.

A lot of the games I just flat out missed, no excuses. I was wrong about Jacksonville. They suck. I may have been too hard on Eli Manning and Joe Flacco. I also got burned by some pretty key injures: Eagles, Seahawks, Steelers. Three games I might have called right if everyone was at full strength.

This was a bad week for me. I’m just going to write it off as an anomaly and not beat myself up. Let me go over the games I missed:

Picked: Titans 24, Texans 18
Actual: Texans 34, Titans 31
Analysis: Titans blew a big lead and the defense fell apart late.

Picked: Eagles 35, Saints 24
Actual: Saints 48, Eagles 22
Analysis: If McNabb played, it would have been closer, but Brees probably would have still managed the win. Note to self: Don’t pick against Brees anymore.

Picked: Jags 30, Cards 16
Actual: Cards 31, Jags 17
Analysis: The Jags played horrid. At home. They need to improve their passing game and Torry Holt isn't working out too well.

Picked: Chiefs 36, Raiders 15
Actual: Raiders 13, Chiefs 10
Analysis: Who cares.

Picked: Packers 38, Bengals 10
Actual: Bengals 31, Packers 24
Analysis: I knew Carson Palmer was going to be solid this year, I just thought Lambeau would be too much for him. I guess the Packers still have some kinks to work out in the 3-4.

Picked: Patriots 38, Jets 17
Actual: Jets 16, Patriots 9
Analysis: Hmmh. Well, in the Jets defense, they have the best defense in the NFL so far. Darelle Revis shut down Andre Johnson and Randy Moss in consecutive weeks. They blitzed like crazy from all over and the Patriots couldn’t give Brady enough time. But these teams will meet again later in the season and I have one word for you: anomaly.

Picked: Seahawks 22, Niners 19
Actual: Niners 23, Seahawks 10
Analysis: The Hasslebeck injury was key. I’m going to hold off judgment on San Fran until they play a team outside of the NFC West.

Picked: Chargers 17, Ravens 14
Actual: Ravens 31, Chargers 26
Analysis: I’m sorry, Joe Flacco. Okay?

Picked: Cowboys 24, Giants 17
Actual: Giants 33, Cowboys 31
Analysis: I’m not ready to apologize to Eli. He still sucks. They can go 16-0 and he sucks. This game was all on Romo. The Giants defense is marvelous. Romo chokes in big games.

Picked: Steelers 37, Bears 31
Actual: Bears 17, Steelers 14
Analysis: If Polamalu played, Pittsburgh would have won. If he continues to miss games, the Steelers will continue to lose. They have no running game or offensive line whatsoever. That being said, the Bears still should have lost.

That’s the 10 games I missed. Here are the six I called correctly.

Picked: Denver 10, Cleveland 7
Actual: Denver 27, Cleveland 6
Analysis: The Browns are horrible. I can’t wait till the Lions play them.

Picked: Vikings 27, Lions 20
Actual: Vikings 27, Lions 13
Analysis: Bingo. That's two weeks and two times I nearly picked the Lions score exactly.

Picked: Falcons 27, Panthers 16
Actual: Falcons 28, Panthers 20
Analysis: My best pick of the week.

Picked: Bills 17, Bucs 3
Actual: Bills 33, Bucs 20
Analysis: Tampa might be even worse than Cleveland. They can score points, but they can't stop anybody.

Picked: Redskins 28, Rams 9
Actual: Redskins 9, Rams 7
Analysis: The Redskins aren’t as good as I thought offensively. They still won, but the offense couldn't score a touchdown on five trips to the red zone. I bet they’ll look plenty good next Sunday in Detroit.

Picked: Colts 28, Dolphins 10
Actual: Colts 27, Dolphins 23
Actual: Somehow the Dolphins tripled the Colts in time of possession and still lost.

Last week: 12-4
This week: 6-10
Season so far: 18-14

Stay tuned for Week 3 Picks.

No comments:

Post a Comment