A Republican who came out and said what needs to be said.
Here's the article: Palin Must Be Stopped.
If you search the word "finally" under the 326 comments, you will yield 52 results. I'm sure it won't take the Twitter Queen more than 24 hours to bash Mr. Scarborough. But hopefully Republicans will rally around his sentiment and give the GOP a fighting chance in 2012.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
Week 12 Wrap Up and a Discussion on the Ethics of Fantasy Football
Yikes.
What a brutal week 12.
I started Chris Johnson in both leagues and the 2,000 yard man rushed for a whopping 7 yards. That's just unthinkably awful. The worst part is, in the A League I traded Peyton Hillis straight up for CJ. Hillis had 190 yards and 3 TDs. Worst trade EVER. But amazingly, I still have a chance to win in the A League (If Gore stays under 21 points) and that's largely due to a scandalous issue which I'll address in a moment. First, on to the picks:
Lions 24, Pats 45
No surprise here. Got the pick. Although, believe it or not, Detroit led 17-10 at the half. Then they allowed 35 points in 30 minutes. I mean ... what can you say? Detroit played a near-perfect first half (only 2 penalties, no turnovers) but then ran out of gas after the half. How does a team lose focus midway through a home game on national TV when they're winning by 7 against one of the best teams in the NFL? That's got to be coaching, right?
It's not like I expected to win. Brady is Brady, and he did his thing, and he got the win. But I didn't think he would make it look so effortless. The Lions' defense went from stout to shit almost immediately after the half. That was the difference. No pass rush, and Alphonso Smith getting embarrassed over and over and over.
One of my favorite parts of the game was the interview with The Rock. When they asked him about the game, he basically said that Detroit is better than their record indicates (no duh) and that they have some good building blocks such as Suh and Calvin (no, really?!). That prompted Phil Sims to say "Wow, that's some great analysization." Which prompted me to say: "You mean analysis you moron?" That made even my father-in-law laugh.
Ugh. What a painful second half. Jim Schwartz isn't in any danger of losing his job, but he is in danger of losing the fans' confidence. Which means his job could be gone after 2011 if we don't win at least 7 games.
Mlive's Tom Kowalski summed up Jim Schwartz pretty well. He basically says that any guy can stand on the sidelines, yell at the refs, look angry, throw the red flag in obvious situations, and scream obscenities after penalties. Anyone could do that. I could do that. But Schwartz doesn't call the offensive plays (Linehan does) nor does he call the defensive plays (Cunningham does), so what is Jim Schwartz's role as head coach? Just to stand there and look pissed off? What does he bring that makes him truly worthy of his salary?
If he's not going to call the plays, he should be the guy responsible for motivating, focusing, and leading the players. He should be inspiring when he needs to be inspiring and harsh when he needs to be harsh; and he should know the difference. So far, I don't think he has any of those skills. He's a football man, and better suited as a defensive coordinator. He has done nothing to change the culture of losing. He's talked about it a lot, but talk isn't translating to wins.
All that to say - these next 5 games are important. I know we aren't going to the playoffs, but 5-11 looks a whole lot better than 2-14. Those wins will inspire the players and the fans to believe in Schwartz, believe in the Lions, and believe in 2011. It isn't going to be easy. We've got Chicago next week, then Green Bay, then @ Tampa, @ Miami, and then home for Minnesota. Each of those games is against a team fighting for the playoffs. They have something to play for, and we do not. It's up to Schwartz to inspire the team and win at least 3 of those games.
That could make all the difference between Schwartz coaching this team in 2012 or starting the rebuilding process all over.
Saints 30, Cowboys 27
Saints were favored by 3.5, so I missed this pick by half a point. Blast!
But really, I'm lucky they won at all. If you watched this game, you know Dallas should have won and in fact would have won if Roy Williams had a brain. With 3 minutes left, Roy caught a pass at midfield and ran all the way to the Saints 11 yard line. If at any point he just slid to the ground, the Cowboys were in field goal range, up by 4, with 3 minutes left and the Saints had just 1 timeout. Three kneeldowns later and then a 30 yard field goal, and the Cowboys are up by 7, kicking off to the timeout-less Saints with 1:10 remaining. Game essentially over. Instead, Roy stupidly held the ball in one hand, was stripped from behind, and Drew Brees promptly led the comeback. Saints finally clinched the win when Dallas missed a 59 yard kick. Great game.
Afterwards, Roy Williams wasn't done being stupid. He said the thought of sliding to the ground crossed his mind, but quote: "going down isn't in my repertoire." Really you jackass? Is winning games in your repertoire? Apparently not. Only an arrogant idiot would defend their decision to keep running in that situation, when going down clearly gives Dallas the win. He lost the game for his 52 teammates and millions of fans, and didn't apologize; instead he used it as an opportunity to promote his greatness and ferocity.What an absolute buffoon. No words for how stupid that man is.
Jets 26, Bengals 10
Pretty sure the Jets remaining schedule is: Bills, Panthers, Bills, Panthers, Panthers, Grand Valley, Panthers, and my old middle school. Seriously. Have they played an actual team in the past 2 months?
Falcons 20, Pack 17
Another game I missed by half a point. Matt Ryan's home dominance continues.
Green Bay should have won, but failed to convert on 3rd and 1 three seperate times. Aaron Rodgers ran the ball for 51 yards. Atlanta now has the fast track for homefield in the playoffs.
Steelers 19, Buffalo 16 - OT
UGGH. What a frustrating game for so many reasons.
Firstly, I missed the pick badly.
Secondly, I had to spend the past 5 days in the dumbest city in America sleeping on an air mattress with a bunch of nincompoop Steelers fans who say things like "Them Stellers ergunna pond um and pot um dawn air"
(Translation: The Steelers are going to pound them and put them down there.")
Thirdly, the Bills should have won. Multiple times. Including a dropped touchdown pass in overtime. So frustrating.
So if all the "elite teams," such as New England, Pittsburgh and the Jets, are struggling to beat cellar-dwellers like Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo on a regular basis, that tells us two things:
1) The elite teams aren't all that good.
2) The bad teams aren't as bad as we think.
Parity is alive and well in the NFL. Just check out this incredible Circle of Parity. Every team in the NFL has beat a team which has beat a team which has beat a team all the way around. The most stunning thing about that circle - how in the world did Baltimore lose to Cincinnati?!
Browns 24, Panthers 23
People have been comparing Peyton Hillis to Mike Alstott all season. You know what. That's an insult to Hillis. His current season (1,300 yards, 13 TDs) is MUCH better than any season Alstott ever had (his best was 900 yards and 11 TDs). And Hillis still has five games to play. Alstott has the advantage in longevity and is probably the best fullback in NFL history. But Hillis is the better rusher, the better receiver, and is having a far better season than Alstott ever had.
But that leads me to another point. Peyton Hillis isn't really a running back. He's not. He's a fullback who gets 20 carries and 5 catches a game. He's got only 2 runs all season of more than 25 yards. He's a power back with very limited speed. And yet he runs for 4.5 YPC and a stunning 9 YPR. Why was Denver willing to trade Hillis this offseason for third-string QB Brady Quinn? Because they didn't think they were trading a franchise running back; they thought he was a fullback, which is in fact what he is. The best dang fullback of the past decade.
It should be noted, probably extensively, that Hillis would not be having his monster season without a certain left tackle named Joe Thomas. Take Thomas off the Browns, and Hillis's production gets cut in half.
Texans 20, Titans 0
Wow. I didn't expect much from Rusty Smith, but seriously? And Chris Johnson, are you kidding me? I'm going to chalk this game up as a new phenomenon called The Randy Moss Effect. It goes like this:
A crazy diva receiver joins the team, and all of a sudden all hell breaks loose. The sometimes-troubled QB is throwing his pads into the stands, then apologetically texting the coach who refuses to accept his apology and tells him to "be a man", and then the star running back is suddenly useless, and the offense gets shut out by the league's worst defense, and the QB is named Rusty and the cornerback gets in a fistfight with an opposing receiver. All of those things can be blamed directly on Randy Moss. And probably Brett Favre. Glad I finally was able to trade Moss just days before the deadline.
Week 12 Picks: 8-8
Overall: 93-79-4
Upset: 8-5
Lock: 7-5-1
Lions: 5-6
That's all for now. Go Lions.
What a brutal week 12.
I started Chris Johnson in both leagues and the 2,000 yard man rushed for a whopping 7 yards. That's just unthinkably awful. The worst part is, in the A League I traded Peyton Hillis straight up for CJ. Hillis had 190 yards and 3 TDs. Worst trade EVER. But amazingly, I still have a chance to win in the A League (If Gore stays under 21 points) and that's largely due to a scandalous issue which I'll address in a moment. First, on to the picks:
Lions 24, Pats 45
No surprise here. Got the pick. Although, believe it or not, Detroit led 17-10 at the half. Then they allowed 35 points in 30 minutes. I mean ... what can you say? Detroit played a near-perfect first half (only 2 penalties, no turnovers) but then ran out of gas after the half. How does a team lose focus midway through a home game on national TV when they're winning by 7 against one of the best teams in the NFL? That's got to be coaching, right?
It's not like I expected to win. Brady is Brady, and he did his thing, and he got the win. But I didn't think he would make it look so effortless. The Lions' defense went from stout to shit almost immediately after the half. That was the difference. No pass rush, and Alphonso Smith getting embarrassed over and over and over.
One of my favorite parts of the game was the interview with The Rock. When they asked him about the game, he basically said that Detroit is better than their record indicates (no duh) and that they have some good building blocks such as Suh and Calvin (no, really?!). That prompted Phil Sims to say "Wow, that's some great analysization." Which prompted me to say: "You mean analysis you moron?" That made even my father-in-law laugh.
Ugh. What a painful second half. Jim Schwartz isn't in any danger of losing his job, but he is in danger of losing the fans' confidence. Which means his job could be gone after 2011 if we don't win at least 7 games.
Mlive's Tom Kowalski summed up Jim Schwartz pretty well. He basically says that any guy can stand on the sidelines, yell at the refs, look angry, throw the red flag in obvious situations, and scream obscenities after penalties. Anyone could do that. I could do that. But Schwartz doesn't call the offensive plays (Linehan does) nor does he call the defensive plays (Cunningham does), so what is Jim Schwartz's role as head coach? Just to stand there and look pissed off? What does he bring that makes him truly worthy of his salary?
If he's not going to call the plays, he should be the guy responsible for motivating, focusing, and leading the players. He should be inspiring when he needs to be inspiring and harsh when he needs to be harsh; and he should know the difference. So far, I don't think he has any of those skills. He's a football man, and better suited as a defensive coordinator. He has done nothing to change the culture of losing. He's talked about it a lot, but talk isn't translating to wins.
All that to say - these next 5 games are important. I know we aren't going to the playoffs, but 5-11 looks a whole lot better than 2-14. Those wins will inspire the players and the fans to believe in Schwartz, believe in the Lions, and believe in 2011. It isn't going to be easy. We've got Chicago next week, then Green Bay, then @ Tampa, @ Miami, and then home for Minnesota. Each of those games is against a team fighting for the playoffs. They have something to play for, and we do not. It's up to Schwartz to inspire the team and win at least 3 of those games.
That could make all the difference between Schwartz coaching this team in 2012 or starting the rebuilding process all over.
Saints 30, Cowboys 27
Saints were favored by 3.5, so I missed this pick by half a point. Blast!
But really, I'm lucky they won at all. If you watched this game, you know Dallas should have won and in fact would have won if Roy Williams had a brain. With 3 minutes left, Roy caught a pass at midfield and ran all the way to the Saints 11 yard line. If at any point he just slid to the ground, the Cowboys were in field goal range, up by 4, with 3 minutes left and the Saints had just 1 timeout. Three kneeldowns later and then a 30 yard field goal, and the Cowboys are up by 7, kicking off to the timeout-less Saints with 1:10 remaining. Game essentially over. Instead, Roy stupidly held the ball in one hand, was stripped from behind, and Drew Brees promptly led the comeback. Saints finally clinched the win when Dallas missed a 59 yard kick. Great game.
Afterwards, Roy Williams wasn't done being stupid. He said the thought of sliding to the ground crossed his mind, but quote: "going down isn't in my repertoire." Really you jackass? Is winning games in your repertoire? Apparently not. Only an arrogant idiot would defend their decision to keep running in that situation, when going down clearly gives Dallas the win. He lost the game for his 52 teammates and millions of fans, and didn't apologize; instead he used it as an opportunity to promote his greatness and ferocity.What an absolute buffoon. No words for how stupid that man is.
Jets 26, Bengals 10
Pretty sure the Jets remaining schedule is: Bills, Panthers, Bills, Panthers, Panthers, Grand Valley, Panthers, and my old middle school. Seriously. Have they played an actual team in the past 2 months?
Falcons 20, Pack 17
Another game I missed by half a point. Matt Ryan's home dominance continues.
Green Bay should have won, but failed to convert on 3rd and 1 three seperate times. Aaron Rodgers ran the ball for 51 yards. Atlanta now has the fast track for homefield in the playoffs.
Steelers 19, Buffalo 16 - OT
UGGH. What a frustrating game for so many reasons.
Firstly, I missed the pick badly.
Secondly, I had to spend the past 5 days in the dumbest city in America sleeping on an air mattress with a bunch of nincompoop Steelers fans who say things like "Them Stellers ergunna pond um and pot um dawn air"
(Translation: The Steelers are going to pound them and put them down there.")
Thirdly, the Bills should have won. Multiple times. Including a dropped touchdown pass in overtime. So frustrating.
So if all the "elite teams," such as New England, Pittsburgh and the Jets, are struggling to beat cellar-dwellers like Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo on a regular basis, that tells us two things:
1) The elite teams aren't all that good.
2) The bad teams aren't as bad as we think.
Parity is alive and well in the NFL. Just check out this incredible Circle of Parity. Every team in the NFL has beat a team which has beat a team which has beat a team all the way around. The most stunning thing about that circle - how in the world did Baltimore lose to Cincinnati?!
Browns 24, Panthers 23
People have been comparing Peyton Hillis to Mike Alstott all season. You know what. That's an insult to Hillis. His current season (1,300 yards, 13 TDs) is MUCH better than any season Alstott ever had (his best was 900 yards and 11 TDs). And Hillis still has five games to play. Alstott has the advantage in longevity and is probably the best fullback in NFL history. But Hillis is the better rusher, the better receiver, and is having a far better season than Alstott ever had.
But that leads me to another point. Peyton Hillis isn't really a running back. He's not. He's a fullback who gets 20 carries and 5 catches a game. He's got only 2 runs all season of more than 25 yards. He's a power back with very limited speed. And yet he runs for 4.5 YPC and a stunning 9 YPR. Why was Denver willing to trade Hillis this offseason for third-string QB Brady Quinn? Because they didn't think they were trading a franchise running back; they thought he was a fullback, which is in fact what he is. The best dang fullback of the past decade.
It should be noted, probably extensively, that Hillis would not be having his monster season without a certain left tackle named Joe Thomas. Take Thomas off the Browns, and Hillis's production gets cut in half.
Texans 20, Titans 0
Wow. I didn't expect much from Rusty Smith, but seriously? And Chris Johnson, are you kidding me? I'm going to chalk this game up as a new phenomenon called The Randy Moss Effect. It goes like this:
A crazy diva receiver joins the team, and all of a sudden all hell breaks loose. The sometimes-troubled QB is throwing his pads into the stands, then apologetically texting the coach who refuses to accept his apology and tells him to "be a man", and then the star running back is suddenly useless, and the offense gets shut out by the league's worst defense, and the QB is named Rusty and the cornerback gets in a fistfight with an opposing receiver. All of those things can be blamed directly on Randy Moss. And probably Brett Favre. Glad I finally was able to trade Moss just days before the deadline.
Giants 24, Jags 20
When I heard that New York would be without 3 starting offensive lineman, I almost changed my pick. Turns out I should have, because the Giants didn't cover the 7.5 spread. But they did win outright, which shows how overrated and un-playoff-worthy the Jaguars are.
For the fourth game in a row, Eli Manning did not get sacked. Remarkable.
Vikings 17, Redskins 13
Blah blah blah Favre Favre McNabb McNabb Drama drama Blah blah
I just realized ... Brett Favre is the Sarah Palin of football. Everyone wants him to just go away.
The only noteworthy story from this game was Adrian Peterson's ankle injury. Will he miss next week? It's probably worth noting that in the A League I just traded Moreno, Moss and Mike Williams (SEA) for Peterson. If this injury ends up ruining my season I might eat a handful of paperclips.
Oh, the other somewhat meaningful story from this game. Mike Shanahan, the master of pissing off fantasy owners, started running back Keiland Williams in this game, who I contemplated starting over Ben Jarvus Green Ellis. But after 3 carries, he pulled an UN-injured Williams from the game and gave the rest of the handoffs to James Davis. W H O ?
On behalf of fantasy owners everywhere, we hate you Mike Shanahan. And I didn't even play Williams. I just hate you on principle.
Fins 33, Raidahs 17
So much for that Oakland playoff run.
Darren McFadden had 8 carries for 2 yards. Just 4 weeks ago, people were calling him the best running back in football. It's amazing how people get so overzealous. I'm sure I've never done that. Miami continues to beat mediocre teams. They might win their next 4 games (Browns, Jets, Lions, Bills) and end up sneaking into the playoffs if New England rests the starters week 17. It's going to come down to the Jets-Dolphins game in 2 weeks. That's a big game.
Chiefs 42, Seahawks 24
Hmm ... can't figure out either of these teams at all. Is KC actually good? Or can they only beat bad teams? Is Seattle bad? Or are they worse than bad? I thought they were supposed to be competitive at home?
Now that Chris Johnson appears to be a numskull and Adrian Peterson is injured and suffering from BrettFavreitus, can we safely call Jamaal Charles the best running back alive? I mean, strictly talent-wise. He shares carries with Thomas Jones (which is smart, because they're saving Charles's legs for a hopeful playoff run) and yet has the second most rushing yards in the NFL now, after Sunday's whopping 173 yards on just 22 carries. His YPC (6.3) is absoluetly sick. And it's no fluke - last year his 5.9 led the NFL. He's also a pass-catching maniac with 32 catches for 359 yards this season. The best barometer of a running back's greatness is the YPC statistic.
Jim Brown - 5.2
Barry Sanders - 5.0
Adrian Peterson - 4.9
As opposed to overrated guys like:
Thurman Thomas - 4.2
Emmitt Smith - 4.2
LaDanian Tomlinson - 4.3
For his career, Jamaal Charles currently has a YPC of 6.1. And don't forget, KC doesn't have a good offensive line or a great passing game. Well, except for Dwayne Bowe who has now caught 7 TDs and 465 yards in his past three games. Only 21 wide receivers have scored more fantasy points THIS SEASON than Bowe has scored over the past THREE WEEKS. That might be the stat of the week.
Ravens 17, Bucs 10
My only good beat of the week. I picked the Bucs to cover the 7.5 spread and they did. Barely.
Tampa did a great job to hold Baltimore to 17 points (none in the second half) but couldn't get their offense moving. Mike Williams was held to just 20 yards. His Rookie of the Year stock takes a hit. Speaking of which, Dez Bryant had zero catches. So Sam Bradford's first place status is a little more secure. Speaking of which ...
Rams 36, Broncos 33
One of my better picks this week. It was tempting to take Denver by 4 but I trusted the rookie to win a much needed game on the road. And he gutted it out. Despite having literally no NFL-caliber receivers and falling below 10-0 early, Bradford went 22 for 37 for 308 yards and 3 TDs. He threw touchdown passes to guys named Billy Bajema and Michael Hoomanawanui. No joke.
I don't care how bad the defense is, when you put up a QB rating of 113 on the road as a rookie ... that's pretty dang impressive. Bradford's passer rating is now at 82. I'm not even going to bring up Stafford's career 67.1 rating ...
Another great fantasy game for Orton, Lloyd and Moreno, but Denver's defense just can't get it done. And Josh McDaniels, who I hated, and then tried to forgive after one of his players died, has now been fined $50,000 for cheating. Again. Remember, he was the offensive coordinator for New England during Spygate I. Now he's the leader of Spygate II. Though he claims he "had no idea." Ha. Don't be surprised if this is his last season in the NFL. He's been caught cheating twice (I'm OK with the cheating, but don't be stupid enough to get caught ... especially not twice) and is 5-16 in his last 21 games. That's almost as bad as Jim Schwartz!
Oh by the way, the Rams are tied for the division lead.
Chicago 31, Eagles 26
Yeah, so I failed miserably on my Lock of the Week. Chicago won. The defense contained Michael Vick, and forced his first interception of the season. Good for them. Julius Peppers is amazing. But I've gotta say - Chicago is definitely the worst 8-3 team in the history of the NFL.
Chargers 36, Colts 14
Watched this game from start to finish, and was shell-shocked. Not even sure what shell-shocked means, but I know I was it.
Let me set the scene for you - I was leading by about 10 going into this game, and I have Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne. My opponent has Rivers, and Frank Gore on Monday. If I win, I clinch the division, a playoff spot, and a shot at $300. If I lose, I'm tied with my opponent, and that's not an acceptable scenario. So I watched this entire game on the edge of my couch, shaking nervously every time Rivers dropped back to pass. And despite Manning's 4 interceptions and Wayne's 3 dropped passes (two of which were 40+ yards), I am leading by 21 going into tonight. Still not confident, but hopeful. Why? Because Phillip Rivers, the PR Machine, the potential league MVP, the winner of 4 straight games, was reduced to a game manager. He didn't throw a single touchdown pass. Let me say again - Rivers did not throw one TD pass. Despite 36 points for the Bolts. It was amazing. Amazingly awesome.
What happened was smart coaching and lucky defense. Smart coaching because every time the Chargers got the ball, they ran as much time as possible off the clock. Mike Tolbert was effective running through the middle and converting first downs, and Indy couldn't tackle him. Chris Collinsworth almost had a hernia talking about fullback Jacob Hester who was laying down some sick blocks and opening up holes for Tolbert, who ended up rumbling for 103 yards on 26 carries. Rivers only threw 23 passes (though he completed 83% of them) and passed for just 185 yards, severely crippling his chance of breaking Dan Marino's single season yardage record. He was on pace to smash it. Now he's on pace to miss it by 160 yards.
But the story of the game, aside from San Diego dominating time of possession 35 minutes to 24, was the Chargers defense. They got pressure on Peyton over and over, dominating the offensive line and reducing the running game to a joke. Although part of that should be blamed on Donald Brown, who made the absolute least of his 11 carries. He looked like the least inspired running back I've ever seen. Just took 3 steps into some lineman's back and fell down. He was awful. If not for an 8 yard run in garbage time he would have run 10 times for 16 yards.
Being constantly pressured, Manning was forced to throw tough passes in a hurry, and that led to two costly interceptions. The over two interceptions were not his fault - one was a horribly missed pass interference call (Eric Weddle pushed down Reggie Wayne, then caught the pick, the looked around for an inevitable flag, was shocked that he didn't see one, ran the ball into the end zone, and instead of celebrating he turned around and looked everywhere for a flag and couldn't believe his luck. The Indy crowd booed for about 15 minutes straight after this egregious play which truly changed the game and probably cost Indy a win. The moral of the story - coaches should probably be allowed to challenge non-penalty calls in obvious situations) and the other interception was a desperation heave with 1 minute to play in a 22 point game - not sure why Manning threw that ball or why he was on the field in the first place. So all that to say ... Indy lost badly, but I'm not giving up on them come playoff time. They'll be okay. They just need to figure out the offensive line and get Joseph Addai healthy. And what the heck is up with Reggie Wayne's hands. He had 5 catches for 42 yards but would have had 8 catches for 150 yards if he didn't let the ball bounce off his hands. Peyton was visibly upset with him and rightfully so. I was too.
Random subplot from this game - Vincent Jackson finally returned after a long holdout and a league-mandated suspension, and played about 5 plays and then got "hurt." He sat out for the rest of the game, but instead of being taken to the locker room, he stood on the sidelines with a curious smirk on his face. I'm 98% sure he's faking the injury to piss off his GM. As a Malcolm Floyd owner, I couldn't be more excited.
Monday night -
49ers @ Arizona. Should be a stunning matchup between 3-7 teams with horredous quarterbacks. Please join me in rooting against Frank Gore.
(EDIT* Gore got hurt after 50 yards. Heck yeah!)
Now I want to change gears a litle bit and talk about ethics.
Let's call this: A Brief Discussion Regarding the Ethics of Fantasy Football.
Here's the stage again: playing my closest division rival, in a money league where there's $300 at stake. Needing a win badly to secure a playoff berth. Two starters - Gates and Floyd - are hurt. My opponent has Rivers, Turner and Gore - three fantasy megastars. He also has a curious gap in his roster - no defense. Well, he had a defense. The Patriots. Thursday, against the Lions. And he left them on the bench. How very strange. 8 points, wasted.
So Thursday night I looked at the available defenses on waivers. Nothing special. No great matchups. But just to be safe, I picked up the top option (Jags). All I had to do was drop Ryan Torain. But then I had a thought. If I dropped the Jags, they would be placed on Waivers until December 2nd. Wednesday. A few days after Sunday. Rendering them unavailable to my foe.
So I did it, and then I picked up another defense and did it again. A few more, until the only choices were Indy, Atlanta, Buffalo, Arizona, or Carolina. I was going to force him to pick a lemon. That's when the moral dilemma set in.
Is this cheating?
Is this a game within the game, or a bogus loophole outside the game? Am I disregarding the spirit of the game (actual football)? Am I being a total snake?
Well, I wasn't actually "cheating" persay. I didn't log in under a false account and drop Frank Gore. I didn't rig the league rules to give him negative points for every touchdown. I didn't do anything against the rules. All I did was exploit my opponent's mistake. Right?
I don't know ... but I picked up the remaining defenses until there was one left. Arizona. They were set to hit waivers on Sunday morning. So I couldn't get them.
I didn't even know when my opponent would see the scandal; would he be outraged? At himself, or at me? What if I woke up early on Sunday and snagged the Cardinals before he could, forcing him to play an empty roster and take a goose egg at the DST position? Is that worth my integrity? Would I steal a loaf of bread to feed my family?
Apparently ... I would.
I asked my wife - she said with no uncertainty in her voice "do it. You can win us $300 right?"
I asked Crazy Keith - he just laughed at my desperate moral dilemma. But he said to do it as well.
I asked my brother - he said there would be reprucussions but it was worth it.
I asked my cousin-in-law - he didn't have much to say other than "dem stellers er goonuh beat dem bells."
Long story short - I set my alarm for 4:05 AM on Sunday, woke up, picked up the Cardinals defense, and went back to bed. My opponent, the Primetime Heroes, ate a big fat zero at the defense position, and he now trails me by 21 going into Monday night. That could easily be the difference between the playoffs or not. Between money and bragging rights, and between nothing.
So I ask you - did I cheat? Am I just as guilty as Josh McDaniels? Or did I simply play the game in a brilliant way? Did I fairly exploit the system to my advantage, or did I screw over my opponent in a needlessly malicious manner?
Week 12 Picks: 8-8
Overall: 93-79-4
Upset: 8-5
Lock: 7-5-1
Lions: 5-6
That's all for now. Go Lions.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Quick Quick Picks
Leaving for Pittsburgh tonight ... here are the week 12 picks in a hurry
Thanksgiving:
Patriots (8-2) @ Lions (2-8)
Line: PATS by 6.5
Surprised this line isn't higher. I'll take the Pats.
Saints (7-3) @ Cowboys (3-7)
Line: NO by 3.5
Nice turnaround for Dallas, but too little too late. I like the Saints. This line is way too low.
Bengals (2-8) @ Jets (8-2)
Line: NYJ by 8.5
What an obnoxious hype fest this will be. I'll take the Bengals and the spread. Jets aren't good enough to get 9 points against anybody.
Green Bay (7-3) @ Atlanta (8-2)
Line: ATL by 2.5
Matt Ryan is good at home. Aaron Rodgers is good everywhere. NFC Championship preview. I like Green Bay, but it's a very tough call.
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Buffalo (2-8)
Line: PIT by 6
The streak ends here for Buffalo. I will take Pitt in a massive blowout.
Carolina (1-9) @ Cleveland (3-7)
Line: CLE by 6
Lot of uncertainty regarding quarterbacks. Claussen is questionable, as is McCoy. Either way, it's all Browns.
Jaguars (6-4) @ Giants (6-4)
Line: NYG by 7.5
They have the same record, but one team is great and the other is awful. You can probably guess which is which. I'll take New York in a big win.
Minnesota (3-7) @ Washington (5-5)
Line: WAS by 2.5
Upset of the Week: Minnesota wins its first game of the Leslie Frazier era.
Tennessee (5-5) @ Houston (4-6)
Line: HOU by 5.5
No Vince Young. Does that really matter? I'll take Houston but without much confidence.
Chiefs (6-4) @ Seattle (5-5)
Line: KC by 1
I'll take the Chiefs.
Miami (5-5) @ Oakland (5-5)
Line: OAK by 3
Hmmm ... I guess Miami .
Rams (4-6) @ Broncos (3-7)
Line: DEN by 4
That line's too high. This game should be close. I'll take the Rams.
Tampa (7-3) @ Baltimore (7-3)
Line: BAL by 7.5
Speaking of a line that's too high ... I'm all over Josh Freeman when he gets a 8 point cushion.
Philly (7-3) @ Chicago (7-3)
Line: PHI by 3.5
LOCK LOCK LOCK Michael Vick is unbeatable, Chicago is terrible. What are they thinking with this line?
Bolts (5-5) @ Colts (6-4)
Line: INDY by 3
HUGE game for both teams. Rivers is the league MVP, but I know you can't pick against Manning at home, especially coming off a loss. I'll take Indy.
San Fran (3-7) @ Arizona (3-7)
Line: SF by 1
Whatever a sad excuse for a Monday night game. I shouldn't even waste my time with a pick. Let's say San Fran I guess.
Last week: 8-8
Overall: 85-71-4
Upset: 7-5
Lock: 7-4-1
Lions: 4-6
Thanksgiving:
Patriots (8-2) @ Lions (2-8)
Line: PATS by 6.5
Surprised this line isn't higher. I'll take the Pats.
Saints (7-3) @ Cowboys (3-7)
Line: NO by 3.5
Nice turnaround for Dallas, but too little too late. I like the Saints. This line is way too low.
Bengals (2-8) @ Jets (8-2)
Line: NYJ by 8.5
What an obnoxious hype fest this will be. I'll take the Bengals and the spread. Jets aren't good enough to get 9 points against anybody.
Green Bay (7-3) @ Atlanta (8-2)
Line: ATL by 2.5
Matt Ryan is good at home. Aaron Rodgers is good everywhere. NFC Championship preview. I like Green Bay, but it's a very tough call.
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Buffalo (2-8)
Line: PIT by 6
The streak ends here for Buffalo. I will take Pitt in a massive blowout.
Carolina (1-9) @ Cleveland (3-7)
Line: CLE by 6
Lot of uncertainty regarding quarterbacks. Claussen is questionable, as is McCoy. Either way, it's all Browns.
Jaguars (6-4) @ Giants (6-4)
Line: NYG by 7.5
They have the same record, but one team is great and the other is awful. You can probably guess which is which. I'll take New York in a big win.
Minnesota (3-7) @ Washington (5-5)
Line: WAS by 2.5
Upset of the Week: Minnesota wins its first game of the Leslie Frazier era.
Tennessee (5-5) @ Houston (4-6)
Line: HOU by 5.5
No Vince Young. Does that really matter? I'll take Houston but without much confidence.
Chiefs (6-4) @ Seattle (5-5)
Line: KC by 1
I'll take the Chiefs.
Miami (5-5) @ Oakland (5-5)
Line: OAK by 3
Hmmm ... I guess Miami .
Rams (4-6) @ Broncos (3-7)
Line: DEN by 4
That line's too high. This game should be close. I'll take the Rams.
Tampa (7-3) @ Baltimore (7-3)
Line: BAL by 7.5
Speaking of a line that's too high ... I'm all over Josh Freeman when he gets a 8 point cushion.
Philly (7-3) @ Chicago (7-3)
Line: PHI by 3.5
LOCK LOCK LOCK Michael Vick is unbeatable, Chicago is terrible. What are they thinking with this line?
Bolts (5-5) @ Colts (6-4)
Line: INDY by 3
HUGE game for both teams. Rivers is the league MVP, but I know you can't pick against Manning at home, especially coming off a loss. I'll take Indy.
San Fran (3-7) @ Arizona (3-7)
Line: SF by 1
Whatever a sad excuse for a Monday night game. I shouldn't even waste my time with a pick. Let's say San Fran I guess.
Last week: 8-8
Overall: 85-71-4
Upset: 7-5
Lock: 7-4-1
Lions: 4-6
Monday, November 22, 2010
More Drama
Brady outdueled Manning. Vick outdueled Eli. Vince Young threw his shoulder pads into the crowd. Richard Seymour punched Ben Ruthlessraper in the face.
Not to be outdone, the Vikings fired their head coach today, stealing the headlines yet again.
Minnesota said bye-bye to Brad Childress in the middle of his fifth season as head coach. Childress had some early success (36-28 in his first four years) but this season has been riddled with mistakes and headaches. First the Favre fiasco. Childress courted Favre like a lovestruck teenager, just to watch Favre play like a 65 year old man. Then, the Moss mishap. Then the vociferous arguments with Percy Harvin which led to "anonymous" attacks directed at the coach.
But the final straw for Dr. Robotnik (seriously, look how much Childress resembles the Sonic the Hedgehog villian, it's uncanny) was yet another crushing loss to divisional rival Green Bay, sending the Vikes to a dismal 3-7 record and crushing their playoff hopes.
With Adrian Peterson, Steve Hutchinson, Kevin Williams, and Jared Allen, the Vikings have four of the 10 best players in the NFC. (The other 6 - Brees, Patrick Willis, DeMarcus Ware, Clay Matthews, Jahri Evans, Larry Fitzgerald). How can a team with that much talent, and a Hall of Fame quarterback, be 3-7? This firing was completely fair, and timed appropriately. So I applaud the owner for that.
But now that the Vikings are without their contenious coach, without their diva receiver, and without a playoff chance, how will they maintain their monopoly on the media? Two words:
Brett. Favre.
We're talking a double dose of sex scandal, a will-he-play-won't-he-play debate before each game for the next two months, and a super-triple-dose of oh-my-god-will-he-retire over the month of December. We'll watch his last game (at Detroit!) like a farewell concert to a legendary rock god. But the only difference is - no one will cheer for an encore.
Picks
Got beat up pretty bad this week.
The Browns should have won but blew a 4th quarter lead for the FIFTH TIME this season. Cleveland could perceivably be 7-3 instead of 3-7. Weird, but true. I've got to stop picking them.
The Lions inability to keep their heads on straight (10 penalties for the 2nd straight week) cost them the game and cost me the pick. Granted, 2 or 3 of the calls were terrible calls, especially the horse-collar on Suh when he tackled Barber by the hair. But teams that are well-coached (New England, for example) don't have double digit penalties. In fact, the Pats were penalized just once yesterday. I am quickly getting tired of Jim Schwartz.
I missed the Thursday pick badly because I underestimated the impact of losing Jake Long.
I missed the Bills-Bengals pick because I misjudged the horrendousness of Cincinnati's entire team. Marvin Lewis should be fired after that pathetic performance, no questions asked.
I missed the Titans pick because I didn't expect Rusty Smith (who??????) to play the second half for Tennessee and have a QB rating of 19.
The rest of the games I nailed pretty well. I missed a couple coinflip games (Saints covered against the Seahawks, Steelers covered against the Raydahs), but overall I went 8-7 this week with a Monday nighter to go.
In other news, my fantasy basketball team just rocked the #1 ranked team, 10-2. (Meaning I won 10 categories and lost 2) I got a big week from Blake Griffin who had 44 pts and 17 rbs on Thursday, and of course Kevin Love who continues to dominate the glass. He has surpassed David Lee, by the way, as the best American-born white guy in the NBA.
In other other news, I need Knowshon Moreno and Malcolm Floyd to outscore Brandon Lloyd by 17 tonight in order to essentially clinch the playoffs in the A League. Not feeling good about my chances. I would be a lot happier if my opponent (the infamous Jason Bartman) didn't have Jennings and Bowe combine for 350 yards and 5 TDs.
But at least I got a stunning contribution from Randy Moss.
Not to be outdone, the Vikings fired their head coach today, stealing the headlines yet again.
Minnesota said bye-bye to Brad Childress in the middle of his fifth season as head coach. Childress had some early success (36-28 in his first four years) but this season has been riddled with mistakes and headaches. First the Favre fiasco. Childress courted Favre like a lovestruck teenager, just to watch Favre play like a 65 year old man. Then, the Moss mishap. Then the vociferous arguments with Percy Harvin which led to "anonymous" attacks directed at the coach.
But the final straw for Dr. Robotnik (seriously, look how much Childress resembles the Sonic the Hedgehog villian, it's uncanny) was yet another crushing loss to divisional rival Green Bay, sending the Vikes to a dismal 3-7 record and crushing their playoff hopes.
With Adrian Peterson, Steve Hutchinson, Kevin Williams, and Jared Allen, the Vikings have four of the 10 best players in the NFC. (The other 6 - Brees, Patrick Willis, DeMarcus Ware, Clay Matthews, Jahri Evans, Larry Fitzgerald). How can a team with that much talent, and a Hall of Fame quarterback, be 3-7? This firing was completely fair, and timed appropriately. So I applaud the owner for that.
But now that the Vikings are without their contenious coach, without their diva receiver, and without a playoff chance, how will they maintain their monopoly on the media? Two words:
Brett. Favre.
We're talking a double dose of sex scandal, a will-he-play-won't-he-play debate before each game for the next two months, and a super-triple-dose of oh-my-god-will-he-retire over the month of December. We'll watch his last game (at Detroit!) like a farewell concert to a legendary rock god. But the only difference is - no one will cheer for an encore.
Picks
Got beat up pretty bad this week.
The Browns should have won but blew a 4th quarter lead for the FIFTH TIME this season. Cleveland could perceivably be 7-3 instead of 3-7. Weird, but true. I've got to stop picking them.
The Lions inability to keep their heads on straight (10 penalties for the 2nd straight week) cost them the game and cost me the pick. Granted, 2 or 3 of the calls were terrible calls, especially the horse-collar on Suh when he tackled Barber by the hair. But teams that are well-coached (New England, for example) don't have double digit penalties. In fact, the Pats were penalized just once yesterday. I am quickly getting tired of Jim Schwartz.
I missed the Thursday pick badly because I underestimated the impact of losing Jake Long.
I missed the Bills-Bengals pick because I misjudged the horrendousness of Cincinnati's entire team. Marvin Lewis should be fired after that pathetic performance, no questions asked.
I missed the Titans pick because I didn't expect Rusty Smith (who??????) to play the second half for Tennessee and have a QB rating of 19.
The rest of the games I nailed pretty well. I missed a couple coinflip games (Saints covered against the Seahawks, Steelers covered against the Raydahs), but overall I went 8-7 this week with a Monday nighter to go.
In other news, my fantasy basketball team just rocked the #1 ranked team, 10-2. (Meaning I won 10 categories and lost 2) I got a big week from Blake Griffin who had 44 pts and 17 rbs on Thursday, and of course Kevin Love who continues to dominate the glass. He has surpassed David Lee, by the way, as the best American-born white guy in the NBA.
In other other news, I need Knowshon Moreno and Malcolm Floyd to outscore Brandon Lloyd by 17 tonight in order to essentially clinch the playoffs in the A League. Not feeling good about my chances. I would be a lot happier if my opponent (the infamous Jason Bartman) didn't have Jennings and Bowe combine for 350 yards and 5 TDs.
But at least I got a stunning contribution from Randy Moss.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Is Sarah Palin Ready to be President?
Okay, normally I don't have much to say about politics. I'm more of an observer than a opinion-giver. I like to watch and listen but not say too much. I am one of those very few folks who can hear and understand the perspectives of both the right and the left, and I count myself lucky because of that. I have a lot of friends on the left; I have a lot of family on the right. I sit mostly in the middle - I get both sides, and both sides have valid points.
But both sides also have plenty of crooked politicians who play into a crooked political system, so I personally think that people have to act outside of the government if we want anything to change. That means churches, non-profits, etc. By and large, I don't trust politicians, and the higher up they climb the more corrupt they become, or at least that's how it seems. Obama, Bush, Clinton ... they all operate under a billion dollar PR scheme. How can you really trust any of them when every word is scripted. There's no realness.
But really, what do I know? I'm just a guy with access to the media, which is probably just as corrupt as the political system. The one thing I'm sure of is that I never want to be one of those people who only hears one side of the argument. If I hear a guy talking on the TV, I don't want to automatically discount every word he says just because of a little (D) or a little (R) next to his name. That happens on both sides, and I think it's silly. Not all democrats are heartless baby killers, and not all republicans are greedy old men. Ok? Enough said.
Now on to the point I want to make.
It's about Sarah Palin.
Did you hear she might be considering a run at the Presidency in 2012?!?! Can you believe it?!?
Sorry, I can't help the sarcasm. One of the websites I visit pretty much every day is CNN.com. I like to be in the loop for major stories, so that I'm not the last to know about the oil spill or the Chilean miners. When Michael Jackson died, I knew before most of my friends. I like knowing stuff.
U.S politics is generally the leading story on CNN.com when there's nothing major going on as far as crimes or scandals. And for the past two and a half years, you know who's face has been on the front page more than any other? Not Obama. Not GW. Not Hilary. The Lipstick Wearing Hockey Mom.
For whatever reason, CNN is fervently obsessed with Ex-Governor Palin. They have been obsessed with her since the minute she was nominated as McCain's running mate. After the election, the leading story wasn't "Obama Won!" it was "What Will Sarah Do Next?!"
It's weird. A big reason why McCain lost was because of her. Remember the horrible interviews with Katie Couric and that old guy? Remember the embarrassing vice presidential debate when Sarah just kept winking and saying nonsense, which inspired this hilarious flowchart? Did you see the Matt Damon video which now has 10 million views? She was considered a failure before she did anything. Even Colin Powell questioned her credentials.
And yet, just weeks after Obama's inauguration, the top story on CNN was "Will Sarah Run in 2012?!" And then that same story ran again 2 weeks later. And two weeks after that. And at least 100 times since, the same question has been asked. Will She Run?
As.
If.
We.
Don't.
Already.
Know.
OF COURSE SHE'S GOING TO RUN!!!
SHE'S BEEN RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT FOR 2 YEARS!
WHY WOULD SHE STOP NOW??
The question isn't "Will She Run?"
It's "Why The Heck Do We Care!?"
After high school, Sarah attented Hawaii Pacific University for one semester, then transferred to North Idaho College, then to the University of Idaho, then to Matanuska Susitna College, and then back to the U of Idaho where she graduated in 1986 with a Bachelor's in Communication with an emphasis in journalism. It only took her 5 college transfers to complete a Bachelor's degree!
After college she worked as a sports reporter for a local TV station, and then as a commercial fisherman with her husband. In 1992, she joined the City Council for Wasilla, and after 4 years she ran for Mayor. She won in a landslide, then ran again in 3 years and won again. She served as Mayor of Wasilla for 6 years. In case you're wondering, Wasilla has about 10,200 citizens. It's about half the size of Grandville.
After her two terms of Mayor, Sarah ran for lieutenant governor of Alaska, and lost. The next year she joined the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to battle for safe and efficient oil policies in Alaska. After 1 year, she resigned, citing "lack of ethics" on the part of the commission. She spent the next 2 years as a co-director of a Republican training group for women in Alaska. Then in 2006, she ran for Governor of Alaska, and won 48% to 40%. In 2007, Sarah got a passport for the first time and traveled outside the country. She went to Kuwait and visited soldiers. She probably figured it would be difficult to be President without a passport.
She took office as Governor on December 4, 2006 with a 93% approval rate.
On August 27, 2008, John McCain picked Sarah as his running mate. Some have questioned his motives. Did he simply want a woman to spice things up against the black guy? Was he looking to secure the vote of the religious right? Or did he truly believe that Sarah - with her 18 months experience of Governor of the 47th most populated state - was the best choice for America? Either way, Sarah took the job, and started traveling around, doing interviews and speeches and debates, and she became instantly mega-famous. Less than 6 months after the election, she resigned as Governor, saying "she could no longer do the job she was elected to do." Her approval rating in Alaska had dropped almost 40% by the time of her resignation.
Since, Sarah has ghost-written two books, recorded a reality TV show, and sat in the audience while her daughter Danced with the Stars. She's been on Oprah, Ellen, and SNL. She's spoken all over the country and she's sparked the Republican party like a stick of pink dynamite. In fact, you could probably give her a large chunk of credit for the GOP's recent success in the midterm elections. Every word she says becomes a headline, every place she travels becomes a Republican riot, every Tweet she tweets is controversial. She's basically become the White Oprah.
But back to the original title of this blog post.
Is she really ready to be President? To recap:
-A 4-year grad from the University of Idaho with an emphasis on journalism.
-A commercial fisherman and a sports reporter on TV.
-A Mayor of a city that wouldn't even rank in the top 50 Michigan cities in terms of population.
-An 18 month Governor of a state with less people than Delaware.
That's her resume.
Is she more qualified than me to be President? Of course. Is she more qualified than 99% of Americans? You bet. But I'm just asking, are there Republicans out there -Senators and Governors perhaps - with more than a 4 year degree and more than 18 months of real experience? I'm pretty sure that I've taken more college level law classes (one) than she has.
For reference, look at President Obama's resume:
-Bachelor's from Columbia University in Political Science
-Graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law School
-President of the Harvard Law Review
-Professor at University of Chicago Law School for 12 years
-Lawyer in Chicago for 11 years, focusing on civil rights and economic development
-Chicago Community organizer (remember when Sarah made fun of him for that? Funny that she didn't bring up his other occupations, like Lawyer, Professor, Senator)
-Illinois State Senator for 8 years
-U.S. Senator for 3 years
-U.S. President for 2 years and counting
So go ahead. Compare their resumes. Tell me who's more qualified for the job.
Just for the record - I'm not endorsing Obama. I think he's done a lousy job, frankly. He should have focused on the economy, not on healthcare, not on foreign affairs. He should have focused on the biggest area of need. Creating jobs.
3 years ago I was excited about Obama, his talk of "Change," and his promise to employ a Politics of Common Sense. It sounded great. But he has let me down. And I'm more than ready for a change from the Change that hasn't changed much. I really am.
But if the best candidate the Republicans can offer is Sarah Palin, then I, along with a majority of Americans, will be voting for Obama. And we'll have 4 more years of his administration, for better or worse. So to my Repbublican friends out there, if you really want to take back the White House in two years, then please, have some common sense, and don't vote for Palin. That's exactly what Obama wants you to do.
But both sides also have plenty of crooked politicians who play into a crooked political system, so I personally think that people have to act outside of the government if we want anything to change. That means churches, non-profits, etc. By and large, I don't trust politicians, and the higher up they climb the more corrupt they become, or at least that's how it seems. Obama, Bush, Clinton ... they all operate under a billion dollar PR scheme. How can you really trust any of them when every word is scripted. There's no realness.
But really, what do I know? I'm just a guy with access to the media, which is probably just as corrupt as the political system. The one thing I'm sure of is that I never want to be one of those people who only hears one side of the argument. If I hear a guy talking on the TV, I don't want to automatically discount every word he says just because of a little (D) or a little (R) next to his name. That happens on both sides, and I think it's silly. Not all democrats are heartless baby killers, and not all republicans are greedy old men. Ok? Enough said.
Now on to the point I want to make.
It's about Sarah Palin.
Did you hear she might be considering a run at the Presidency in 2012?!?! Can you believe it?!?
Sorry, I can't help the sarcasm. One of the websites I visit pretty much every day is CNN.com. I like to be in the loop for major stories, so that I'm not the last to know about the oil spill or the Chilean miners. When Michael Jackson died, I knew before most of my friends. I like knowing stuff.
U.S politics is generally the leading story on CNN.com when there's nothing major going on as far as crimes or scandals. And for the past two and a half years, you know who's face has been on the front page more than any other? Not Obama. Not GW. Not Hilary. The Lipstick Wearing Hockey Mom.
For whatever reason, CNN is fervently obsessed with Ex-Governor Palin. They have been obsessed with her since the minute she was nominated as McCain's running mate. After the election, the leading story wasn't "Obama Won!" it was "What Will Sarah Do Next?!"
It's weird. A big reason why McCain lost was because of her. Remember the horrible interviews with Katie Couric and that old guy? Remember the embarrassing vice presidential debate when Sarah just kept winking and saying nonsense, which inspired this hilarious flowchart? Did you see the Matt Damon video which now has 10 million views? She was considered a failure before she did anything. Even Colin Powell questioned her credentials.
And yet, just weeks after Obama's inauguration, the top story on CNN was "Will Sarah Run in 2012?!" And then that same story ran again 2 weeks later. And two weeks after that. And at least 100 times since, the same question has been asked. Will She Run?
As.
If.
We.
Don't.
Already.
Know.
OF COURSE SHE'S GOING TO RUN!!!
SHE'S BEEN RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT FOR 2 YEARS!
WHY WOULD SHE STOP NOW??
The question isn't "Will She Run?"
It's "Why The Heck Do We Care!?"
After high school, Sarah attented Hawaii Pacific University for one semester, then transferred to North Idaho College, then to the University of Idaho, then to Matanuska Susitna College, and then back to the U of Idaho where she graduated in 1986 with a Bachelor's in Communication with an emphasis in journalism. It only took her 5 college transfers to complete a Bachelor's degree!
After college she worked as a sports reporter for a local TV station, and then as a commercial fisherman with her husband. In 1992, she joined the City Council for Wasilla, and after 4 years she ran for Mayor. She won in a landslide, then ran again in 3 years and won again. She served as Mayor of Wasilla for 6 years. In case you're wondering, Wasilla has about 10,200 citizens. It's about half the size of Grandville.
After her two terms of Mayor, Sarah ran for lieutenant governor of Alaska, and lost. The next year she joined the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to battle for safe and efficient oil policies in Alaska. After 1 year, she resigned, citing "lack of ethics" on the part of the commission. She spent the next 2 years as a co-director of a Republican training group for women in Alaska. Then in 2006, she ran for Governor of Alaska, and won 48% to 40%. In 2007, Sarah got a passport for the first time and traveled outside the country. She went to Kuwait and visited soldiers. She probably figured it would be difficult to be President without a passport.
She took office as Governor on December 4, 2006 with a 93% approval rate.
On August 27, 2008, John McCain picked Sarah as his running mate. Some have questioned his motives. Did he simply want a woman to spice things up against the black guy? Was he looking to secure the vote of the religious right? Or did he truly believe that Sarah - with her 18 months experience of Governor of the 47th most populated state - was the best choice for America? Either way, Sarah took the job, and started traveling around, doing interviews and speeches and debates, and she became instantly mega-famous. Less than 6 months after the election, she resigned as Governor, saying "she could no longer do the job she was elected to do." Her approval rating in Alaska had dropped almost 40% by the time of her resignation.
Since, Sarah has ghost-written two books, recorded a reality TV show, and sat in the audience while her daughter Danced with the Stars. She's been on Oprah, Ellen, and SNL. She's spoken all over the country and she's sparked the Republican party like a stick of pink dynamite. In fact, you could probably give her a large chunk of credit for the GOP's recent success in the midterm elections. Every word she says becomes a headline, every place she travels becomes a Republican riot, every Tweet she tweets is controversial. She's basically become the White Oprah.
But back to the original title of this blog post.
Is she really ready to be President? To recap:
-A 4-year grad from the University of Idaho with an emphasis on journalism.
-A commercial fisherman and a sports reporter on TV.
-A Mayor of a city that wouldn't even rank in the top 50 Michigan cities in terms of population.
-An 18 month Governor of a state with less people than Delaware.
That's her resume.
Is she more qualified than me to be President? Of course. Is she more qualified than 99% of Americans? You bet. But I'm just asking, are there Republicans out there -Senators and Governors perhaps - with more than a 4 year degree and more than 18 months of real experience? I'm pretty sure that I've taken more college level law classes (one) than she has.
For reference, look at President Obama's resume:
-Bachelor's from Columbia University in Political Science
-Graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law School
-President of the Harvard Law Review
-Professor at University of Chicago Law School for 12 years
-Lawyer in Chicago for 11 years, focusing on civil rights and economic development
-Chicago Community organizer (remember when Sarah made fun of him for that? Funny that she didn't bring up his other occupations, like Lawyer, Professor, Senator)
-Illinois State Senator for 8 years
-U.S. Senator for 3 years
-U.S. President for 2 years and counting
So go ahead. Compare their resumes. Tell me who's more qualified for the job.
Just for the record - I'm not endorsing Obama. I think he's done a lousy job, frankly. He should have focused on the economy, not on healthcare, not on foreign affairs. He should have focused on the biggest area of need. Creating jobs.
3 years ago I was excited about Obama, his talk of "Change," and his promise to employ a Politics of Common Sense. It sounded great. But he has let me down. And I'm more than ready for a change from the Change that hasn't changed much. I really am.
But if the best candidate the Republicans can offer is Sarah Palin, then I, along with a majority of Americans, will be voting for Obama. And we'll have 4 more years of his administration, for better or worse. So to my Repbublican friends out there, if you really want to take back the White House in two years, then please, have some common sense, and don't vote for Palin. That's exactly what Obama wants you to do.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Week 10 Wrap Up & Week 11 Picks
What a weird week.
The Patriots dismantled the Steelers unstoppable defense; the Cowboys beat the spread by 26 points against NYG; and Chicago effectively ended the Vikings' season with a 27-13 rout in which the Bears ran the ball 38 times and nobody from Minnesota was involved in any scandals of revenge, sex or anarchy. Oh, and let's not forget the pathetic Lions, who mustered only 12 points against the Bills horrendous defense and made Fred Jackson look like a young Thurman Thomas. Then on Monday night, Michael Vick had 27 fantasy points in the first quarter alone.
Weird.
Then there was Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton combining for 770 yards, 8 TDs and 0 INTs. Three Home Underdogs - Chicago, Miami, and Denver- all won convincingly, and the Browns came dangerously close to being a fourth. Detroit could have been number 5.
But we'll get in to all that, one game at a time.
Let's start with the pathetic 2-7 Detroit Lions.
Buffalo 14, Detroit 12
Here's what I wrote last week:
if they do lose ... well let's just say that Schwartz's job instantly falls into jeopardy, thousands of fans stop watching, the Lions become a laughingstock all over again, half the players get depressed, Calvin Johnson checks out mentally, and it probably sets the Lions' rebuilding process back about 2 seasons. A win means nothing, but a loss would be detrimental. This is the most important game in years.
What else is there to say!!?!? I mean, seriously ... Detroit ran the ball for a measly 76 yards against a defense that allows nearly 190 rushing yards per contest! Either Jahvid Best's turf toe really is a problem, or the guy stinks and is overrated. It's either one or the other, and we better hope to God it's the toe. Shaun Hill threw 50 passes and at least 20 of them were HIDEOUS. Brandon Pettigrew looked like freaking Kwame Brown in a #84 Lions jersey. The only defensive player who seemed to give a crap was freaking Lawerence Jackson who's just trying to keep his job.
But really, this pathetic game come down to one statistic - 11 penalties for the Lions, 4 for the Bills. Detroit dominated in total yards (390 to 290), in time of possession (33 to 27), and had at least the 3 best players on the field (Calvin, Suh, KVB). Honestly, who IS the best player on the Bills roster? I can't even think of one plausible option... maybe Jairus Byrd?? Or maybe Marcus Stroud who was washed up 3 years ago? Maybe Lee Evans???
This loss is absolutely PATHETIC. Just wretched. A complete disgrace. Detroit might have actually had the TEN best players in this game. UGGHHh!!!!!
Okay, let's go back to the 11 penalties for a second.
1st quarter:
FALSE START on Will Heller. Gives Detroit a 1st and 15, leads to a punt.
HOLDING on Rob Sims negates a 7 yard run.
FALSE START on Peterman. Moves us from 2nd and 6 to 2nd and 11, leads to a punt.
ILLEGAL MOTION on Ashlee Palmer on the punt. Gives Buffalo 5 free yards.
NEUTRAL ZONE INFRACTION on Suh. Give Buffalo 1st and 5.
ENCROACHMENT on Corey Williams. Another 1st and 5.
2nd quarter:
HOLDING on Gosder Cherilus. Negates a 3 yard run on 3rd and 2, instead the Lions punt.
HOLDING on Jeff Backus. Gives Detroit a 1st and 20, which leads to a punt.
3rd quarter:
FALSE START on Backus. Moves 3rd and 8 to 3rd and 13, leads to punt.
4th quarter:
FALSE START on Tony Scheffler. First and 15.
FALSE START on Dominic Raiola. Moves Detroit from 4th and 1 to 4th and 6.
That's a whopping 8 penalties on the offensive line plus the tight ends. 2 on defense, 1 on special teams. But EIGHT on the offensive line?? REALLY?? What happens if we DON'T commit a penalty on 3rd and 2, and we gain the 3 yards, and then we're at the Buffalo 40 yard line with a 1st and 10. Worst case scenario, we kick a field goal. That could have easily been the difference in the game. We easily could have, and in fact WOULD have, won this game without the 5 false starts and 3 holdings.
Don't blame the defense. We allowed only 14 points and less than 300 total yards. Fitzpatrick had only 12 completions. The secondary played well (granted, against a historically pathetic offense). I anticipated Steve Johnson having 12 catches for 180 yards and 2 TDs. He only caught 3 balls for 37 yards. I repeat: do not blame the defense.
Blame the offensive line, blame the running backs, blame Shaun Hill, and most of all, blame the coaching staff. Five false start penalties is way beyond unacceptable. Jim Schwartz can say all the right things, wear the hip khakis, cross his arms and scowl like a Hollywood actor trying to portray a hard-nosed coach. But at the end of the day, if his offensive line is committing a false start penalty FIVE times in a game against 0-8 Buffalo, he needs to be seriously evaluated.
Oh and one other guy to blame. Matt Stafford. Stupid jerk.
How about somebody NOT to blame? Let's go with Calvin Johnson. 'Tron put up 10 catches for 128 yards and a score. That's the kind of line that will get you invited to Honolulu. In fact I think Calvin could go ahead and book his Pro Bowl ticket right now. The only only sure bet in the NFC this year is Roddy White. Calvin is in line for the #2 spot. His only other competition is Hakeem Nicks and the two Eagles. No one else is close.
Good thing Calvin's not in the AFC, where Andre, TO, Lloyd, Wayne, Marshall, Bowe and Boldin have turned the WR Pro Bowl race into a freaking dog fight.
One last thought about the Lions: a dreary, what-could-have-been introspection.
First, Detroit should have beat Chicago week one. Everyone knows this. So let's say they're 1-0.
The next 6 games Detroit goes 2-4 like they did. Legit. This was the tough part of the schedule. We're now 3-4. Then the Jets game. If Suh makes an extra point, or if Stanton takes the sack, or if we win the coin toss, we're 4-4.
Then this week, against the 0-8 Bills ... well let's just say we could have easily been 5-4.
Then there's the Cowboys next week, which should have been an easy win against the uninspired idiots, but alas, Dallas just decided to start trying last week, and now we're 10 point underdogs or something in that range. Then we've got New England 4 days later on Thanksgiving. So we'll be 2-9 in the standings. When we could have EASILY been 6-5 after Thanksgiving with 10 days to prepare for a home game against the Bears, meaning we're potentially 7-5 and have a home game with Green Bay, @Tampa Bay, @Miami and at home for the no-longer-trying Vikings remaining on the schedule. A very possible 8-8 or 9-7 year. That means we break the 75 year playoff drought.
Instead, Calvin's catch was ruled a noncatch, Suh missed an extra point, we got 11 penalties, Dallas just started trying one week before their game against Detroit, and we'll finish the season 3-13.
I HATE BEING A LIONS FAN!!!!!!!!!
On to the rest of the games ...
Falcons 26, Ravens 21
Matt Ryan won the battle of 3rd year quarterbacks convincingly. If Atlanta gets homefield throughout the playoffs, pencil them into the Super Bowl. Also, I nailed the pick.
Bears 27, Vikings 13
Favre dropped another stinkbomb (18/31, 170 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs and a fumble lost) and was outplayed by Jay effing Cutler. The Vikings are now 3-6, the Bears are 6-3, and if you put a gun to my head and asked Who's more likely to make the playoffs? I'd say Minnesota, and I'd ask you to kindly lower your weapon you spaz.
Jets 26, Browns 20 - OT
My most unlucky pick of the week. Took Cleveland to cover the 3 points, and should have at least got a tie, but the TD in OT with 16 seconds left sunk me. Cleveland played great. Two weeks in a row the Jets got a bogus win. If Peyton Hillis doesn't make the Pro Bowl I'm boycotting.
Colts 23, Cincinnati 17
I went back and forth about whether or not Cincy would pull off the backdoor cover. I picked Indy to cover by 7. They won by 6. It was a total coin flip. Cincy is now 2-7 and still not a word about Palmer being benched or Lewis being fired. How strange.
Dolphins 29, Titans 17
This might have been my dumbest pick of the week. Why did I pick the team with cancerous Randy Moss and an injured QB to win by 2 on the road against the need-to-win Fins? Stupid, stupid, stupid. Bad news though for Miami - it looks like Jake Long is hurt for next week, maybe longer. And generally speaking, when you lose your best player, it's bad news.
Bucs 31, Panthers 16
I thought the 7 point line was too high, but I underestimated the futility of the Carolina offense. Claussen and Co. moved the ball relatively well, but they kicked 3 field goals when they got close. Tampa is good enough to kill bad teams, but I think they're still a year away from contending with playoff teams.
Jags 31, Texans 24
Bah. I picked Houston and might have got the pick right if not for a stupid hailmary. Nothing worse than losing your pick on a hailmary.
Broncos 49, Chiefs 29
Last week I wrote this: Isn't Kyle Orton due for another 400 yard, 3 TD game.
Instead Orton had 300 yards and 4 TDs. I guess I switched the 3s and the 4s. Oops. But either way, I nailed the Upset.
Cowboys 33, Giants 20
All the Cowboys need to do is fire their coach every week and maybe they'll play inspired. But seriously - Dez Bryant moved past Best and Matthews for ROY and is now breathing down Bradford's neck. He had 104 receiving yards and a TD, plus 86 return yards. As we saw last year with Harvin, a WR/KR/PR can win rookie of the year.
Seahawks 36, Cardinals 18
In two games against the Cardinals, Mike Williams has 22 catches for 232 yards. If he could just play them every week, he'd put up 176 catches and 1,850 yards and rewrite the record books. But alas, the NFC West is still putrid and Arizona just lost their 4th game in a row.
49ers 23, Rams 20 - OT
This was St. Louis's chance to claim the NFC West as their division to lose. But I guess they're not ready yet. Defensively they let Troy Smith look like an old Randall Cunningham. But this loss cannot be pinned on Sam Bradford - dude completed 30 of 42 passes for 250 yards and no picks. If you throw 42 passes without an INT, that's solid. Rams covered the spread at least, so I got the Lock.
Patriots 39, Steelers 26
Vintage Tom Brady. He beat the snot out of the league's best defense. I watched this entire game from start to finish and didn't even see Troy Polamalu on the TV screen more than 8 times. Which means two things:
1) Troy wasn't aggressive enough
2) Tom avoided him at all costs
Even run plays were designed to go away from Polamalu. New England and their brilliant coach exposed Pittsburgh only weakness: their defense, without Troy, stinks. Oh, and their other weakness - the offensive line is terrible. Other than those two things, the Steelers are a Super Bowl team. But those two things are pretty important.
Eagles 59, Washington 28
Philly was only favored by 3, which is hilarious. I wrote that they should have been favored by 7. Maybe instead they should have been favored by 27. They still would have beat the spread.
Hours after Donovan McNabb was awarded one of the most puzzling contract extensions in NFL history (5 years, $78 million despite playing the worst season of his career and being benched 2 weeks ago for Rex Grossma), Michael Vick upstaged McNabb by playing quite literally one of the best games in NFL history with 20/28 passing for 333 yards and 4 TDs while also running for 80 yards and 2 more TDs. It's tough to do that even in Madden. Amazing. And simultaneously awful, since Michael Vick is a villain and now we are celebrating him. If he wins league MVP I might light my hair on fire.
Week 10 Picks: 8-6
Upset of the Week: 2-0 (I accidentally picked two)
Lock of the Week: 1-0
Lions Pick: 1-0
Overall: 77-63-4
Upset: 7-4
Lock: 6-4-1
Lions: 4-5
Let's check out the week 11 picks.
Chicago (6-3) @ Miami (5-4) - Thursday
Predicted Line: MIA by 1
Actual Line: MIA by 1.5
If there was ever a week Miami needed Jake Long, it's this week against Julius Peppers. But it looks like Long is out, which means they'll slide RT Vernon Carey over to the left side, and that'll probably result in pressure coming from both sides. It's gonna be a tough week to be without their Pro Bowl left tackle. Especially considering that both Chads (Henne & Pennington) will be unavailable and Tyler Thigpen has to start. But, it's worth noting that Thigpen is a scrambler and pressure in the pocket might be better suited for him than for either Chad. So who knows, maybe Thigpen will run 15 times for 100 yards.
We saw last week that defenses struggle on 4 days rest. Especially when they have to travel. In fact it's probably safe to pick all the home teams on Thursdays from here on out. Especially when the other team has Jay Cutler, who is due for a massively sucky outing. Look for underrated OLB Cameron Wake to have 2 or 3 sacks and force a fumble, and lead Miami to a surprising blowout victory. They need this game so much more than Chicago does and I think they'll play accordingly.
Buffalo (1-7) @ Cincinnati (2-8)
Predicted Line: CIN by 6.5
Actual Line: CIN by 5.5
I don't feel great about backing either team, but think I'll go with Cincy.
Detroit (2-7) @ Dallas (2-7)
Predicted Line: DAL by 5.5
Actual Line: DAL by 6.5
I don't know. I suck at picking the Lions' games. I pick against them when they're underdogs and they cover. I pick against them when they're favorites and they win. Maybe I need to just start picking for them every week? I mean, Detroit is a league-best 7-2 against the spread, believe it or not.
So this week ... we face off against the Jon Kitna & Roy Williams Super Duo of Vengeance. Although the 4 guys I'm most worried about are Miles Austin, Felix Jones, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant, in that order. I just don't see how Detroit has the defense to hang with all those weapons. We can't double team Austin, but if we leave him man-covered against Chris Houston that's bad news. If we try to shade Austin with a safety, that leaves Witten over the middle and opens up Felix Jones in the running game. No matter what we do, Bryant is single-covered by Alphonso Smith. Then there's Roy Williams against our nickel back, Nathan Vasher. Yikes. Yikes all the way around.
Really, our defense only has one hope, and that is of course Suh and the D-line. Dallas has an offensive line of big talented dummies. They've allowed 17 sacks and they have almost as many offensive penalties as Detroit does. (Detroit has 88, Dallas has 67, both rank in the top 5).
We've got mismatches up front, especially with Suh who will once again be double teamed. If we expose those mismatches and blitz effectively, we can put pressure on Jon Kitna, and we know how that works out. Forced throws into double coverage. Checkdowns on 3rd and long. Throwing the ball out of bounds. Scrambling blindly. Sheer panic and desperation. Kitna is a warrior and a fierce competitor, but unfortunately (or fortunately, now that he's our opponent) he panics under pressure and overreacts. Our only hope defensively is putting pressure on him early and often. Cunningham better have some stellar blitz packages ready for those big 3rd downs.
When Detroit has the ball ... it'll be interesting to see if we can take advantage of Dallas's lazy corners and 21st ranked pass defense. They rank 23th in total defense and 30th in points allowed. They suck in the secondary, and they don't have a prayer of covering Calvin Johnson even if they quadruple team him.
Everyone talks about how unfocused and stupid Dallas is, but believe it or not their defense is actually the least penalized defense in the NFL in terms of total penalities AND total yards. They've still got a stellar run defense (4.3 YPC, only 6 TDs allowed all year) and let's not forget they have a top 10 overall NFL player at outside linebacker. This matchup (Ware against Backus) is an absolute nightmare to gameplan against.
If we don't use tight ends and running backs to block Ware, then Shaun Hill is a dead man and Drew Stanton will see the field by halftime.
This game probably comes down to Calvin Johnson and how he dictates Dallas's defense. If they double team him regularly it might allow Detroit to run and throw short passes and move the chains. If Calvin struggles (he's been sitting out this week with a knee injury but will play Sunday), the entire offense will stand still.
Speaking of injuries, Jason Hanson will miss another game, as will defensive end Cliff Avril, which means more snaps for Turk McBride and Lawerence Jackson. We also know Kevin Smith is out and Jahvid Best is missing practice because of the lingering turf toe injury. Don't be surprised if fullback Jerome Felton has 5 or 10 carries, especially since he can help block Ware if needed.
Okay, enough talk. Let's just get to the pick and move on. I'm going with Detroit to cover. I think 6.5 is too many points for Jon Kitna to be giving, and Detroit has showed an incredible ability to keep games entertaining down to the end. Probably another devestating close loss. Maybe a Lions win. But it should be less than a blowout. I'm taking the Lions and the points.
Oakland (5-4) @ Pittsburgh (6-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6.5
Actual Line: PIT by 7.5
Last season, Oakland went into Heinz Field as 15 point underdogs and won by 3. As a direct result, Pittsburgh missed the playoffs. One of my favorite games of the decade.
But that was a different Pittsburgh team, and a different Oakland team as well. That was Pittsburgh without their best player, and a classic example of how bad the Steeler defense is without Troy. They gave up 308 passing yards and a 122 QB Rating to Bruce Gradkowski. You think Polamalu is going to let that happen. No chance.
This year, Pittsburgh will remember that game and be out for revenge. But unfortunately for them, Oakland is no longer a joke. They're playing insane right now, winning 3 straight by an average of 3 touchdowns. Darren McFadden is probably a top 10 running back right now and steadily moving up. And they've had a bye week to prepare for the league's best defense.
Both teams really want this game. Oakland wants to prove they're for real; Pittsburgh doesn't want to lose 2 straight and fall behind Baltimore. It's going to be hard-fought and probably closer than 8. Especially given the 3 injured starters on Pittsburgh's offensive line, and the fact that Oakland (27 sacks, 3rd in the NFL) can get after the quarterback. Richard Seymour is licking his chops. I'm not sure what the phrase means. But something like that.
I'll take Oakland and the points.
Houston (4-5) @ NY Jets (7-2)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 6.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 7
Houston has lost 3 straight, and their next 4 games are Tennessee, @Philly, Baltimore, and @Tennessee. They might actually go 5-11 after starting 4-2. Yikes.
But let's not rule them out of this game. Houston's glaring weakness is the secondary, and they get a break this week against the league's least accurate passer in Mark Sanchez. Literally, his completion percentage is just 54.7%. But Sanchez has a knack for the big play, and Santonio Holmes seems to be heating up, and Houston's secondary can't stop ANY BO DY. So the only way Houston stays in this game is if they, uh, score a bunch of points. Good thing I'm here for stunning analysis like that.
So how do Matt Schaub and Arian Foster stack up against Rex Ryan's blitz monsters?
Well, the biggest issue is Schaub's bursa sac in his knee. Whatever a bursa sac is, I'm not sure, but Schaub's is bursted and that sounds like bad news. He missed practice Wednesday and is questionable. If Dan Orlovsky starts instead, I'll be taking the Jets + 7. But my gut says Schaub will play because this game is a must-win for them.
Andre Johnson is also ailing, with an ankle injury keeping him off the practice field and also deemed as questionable. But that's probably just a precaution. There's no way Andre is going to miss his chance at Darelle Revis. Best WR against the best CB. It doesn't get any better.
The key to this game is Arian Foster. How can he do against New York's 5th rank rush defense? Foster rushes for 5.3 YPC and the Jets allow an average of 3.4. Whichever number is closer to reality will determine the winner of this game. And since I'm a big time Jets hater and a big time Texans love, it's a foregone conclussion that I'm taking Houston.
Baltimore (6-3) @ Carolina (1-8)
Predicted Line: BAL by 10.5
Actual Line: BAL by 10
The first line I guessed was BAL by 7.5, but then I remembered that Matt Moore is out for the year and Jimmy Claussen sucks. Carolina is starting Brian St. Pierre. No seriously, they really are. Check it out. Last week, St. Pierre was a stay-at-home dad. Then Claussen got a concussion, so the Panthers called him up. He joined the practice squad, then the 53 man roster, and now he is starting for Carolina against a defense with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Haloti Ngata, 3 of the 10 best defensive players in the NFL. This game should be hilarious. I'll pick Baltimore to win by at least 30 and I'll make it the Lock of the Week.
Cleveland (3-6) @ Jacksonville (5-4)
Predicted Line: JAC by 3.5
Actual Line: JAC by 1.5
Wow... I almost guessed the other way and said Jags by 5. Can't believe this line is so low.
However, I'm taking the Browns straight up. They've got the better team and they're playing better football by far. They're also playing with a lot more confidence, and home field advantage probably means less to the Jaguars than any other team. I'm not even sure if they have fans. I'll take Cleveland as my Upset of the Week. My man crush on Peyton Hillis knows no bounds.
Washington (4-5) @ Tennessee (5-4)
Predicted Line: TEN by 5.5
Actual Line: TEN by 7
Both secondaries stink (Titans ranked 25th, Skins ranked 31st) so both teams should be able to pass. The difference is of course Chris Johnson. He'll command 8 in the box as always and as a result Washington's defense will be ripped to shreds. I'd guess 40+ points for the Titans.
Washington has no running game, because Mike Shanahan can't keep a consistent running back for more than 3 weeks without changing his mind. He never could at Denver either. This week he'll go back to Ryan Torain but with a dash of Keiland Williams. Remember during the preseason when Washington had Portis, Parker and LJ? How'd that work out?
Tennessee just has a much better team. They'll dominate in this game. I really like this pick. Though I'd feel more comfortable if the line was a few points lower just in case. On a related note, I'm starting Randy Moss one last time in the A League. If he can't produce against the 31st ranked pass defense, he's done. I'll drop him if he has less than 50 yards. Go Titans!
Arizona (3-6) @ Kansas City (5-4)
Predicted Line: KC by 7.5
Actual Line: KC by 8
The Chiefs are the Buccaneers of the AFC. They can destroy bad teams, but they can't beat good teams. I think they'll win this game easily. I'll take them +8.
Green Bay (6-3) @ Minnesota (3-6)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 3
Hmmm ... I can't think of one interesting thing to say about this game. Guess I'll pick the Packers.
Atlanta (7-2) @ St. Louis (4-5)
Predicted Line: ATL by 3.5
Actual Line: ATL by 3
I'd just like to point out that I've guessed all the lines so far within 2 points. Now if I can just get the picks right.
If I gave you 10 guesses to this question - Which team leads the NFL in sacks? - would you have picked the Rams? Even with 20 guesses? I probably wouldn't have. But it's true. They also have the 12st best defense in terms of yards and 6th best in terms of scoring. If you take out that 44-6 blowout win in Detroit, St. Louis gives up an average of 15 points per game. Granted, they haven't played a single good offense this year except San Diego, but still. The effects of defensive mastermind Steve Spagnuolo are slowly but surely sinking in. St. Louis is rebuiling nicely.
That said, I don't think they can hang with an elite offense like Atlanta. Matt Ryan is an A+ quarterback indoors, and a C+ QB outside. This game is inside. I like Atlanta.
Seattle (5-4) @ New Orleans (6-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 11.5
Actual Line: NO by 12
Seattle sucks and the Saints are great , so this game is an easy call: New Orleans wins.
Oh yeah, the dang 12 point spread ... I think I'll take Seattle. We've seen time and time again that Sean Peyton doesn't like to run up the score. They'll win easily, but probably by 10 or 7. Seattle gets a garbage TD late and covers the spread.
Tampa Bay (6-3) @ San Francisco (3-6)
Predicted Line: SF by 4.5
Actual Line: SF by 3.5
It's inexplicable, but every week San Fran gets about 5 points more than they should. Maybe it's because Vegas is close to California? Maybe it's because the Niners were great in the 90s? I have no idea. But I guessed this line intentionally stupidly and ended up being close.
Just like last week, I think San Fran will win, but I hate this line. I'll go with Tampa since they're clearly the better team and they're getting 3 points. But it's a tough call: the Bucs are 5-26 on the west coast since 1976, and Tampa's 32nd rank rushing defense now gets Frank Gore after giving up 100 yards to Mike Goodson last week. On second though, I'll take the Niners. No wait, I'll take Tampa, because I just unashamedly love Josh Freeman. Dangit I don't know!!
Final pick: Tma.pps .aSasnuhhh San Fran. No Tampa. Definitely Tampa.
Indy (6-3) @ New England (7-2)
Predicted Line: Pats by 3.
Actual Line: Pats by 4.
Last time these teams played, it was in Indy and Bellichick went for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28 with 2 minutes remaining. Remember that? The Colts ended up winning. That game couldn't have been any more awesome.
So I clearly have no idea who to pick this week. It's like picking between Magic and Bird. Either guy could win. When in doubt ... take the points? Or take the home team? Ummm ...
I guess I'll take the points. Go Indy!
NY Giants (6-3) @ Philly (6-3)
Predicted Line: PHI by 4.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3
Until I see Michael Vick play like a human and not like a mythological demigod, I will be picking the Eagles. This line is atrocious. No wonder 87% of the public is taking Philly.
Denver (3-6) @ San Diego (4-5)
Predicted Line: SD by 9.5
Actual Line: SD by 10
I definitely think San Diego wins, but I can't lay double digits against a Denver team that just scored 49 points last week. I'll take the Broncs.
The Patriots dismantled the Steelers unstoppable defense; the Cowboys beat the spread by 26 points against NYG; and Chicago effectively ended the Vikings' season with a 27-13 rout in which the Bears ran the ball 38 times and nobody from Minnesota was involved in any scandals of revenge, sex or anarchy. Oh, and let's not forget the pathetic Lions, who mustered only 12 points against the Bills horrendous defense and made Fred Jackson look like a young Thurman Thomas. Then on Monday night, Michael Vick had 27 fantasy points in the first quarter alone.
Weird.
Then there was Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton combining for 770 yards, 8 TDs and 0 INTs. Three Home Underdogs - Chicago, Miami, and Denver- all won convincingly, and the Browns came dangerously close to being a fourth. Detroit could have been number 5.
But we'll get in to all that, one game at a time.
Let's start with the pathetic 2-7 Detroit Lions.
Buffalo 14, Detroit 12
Here's what I wrote last week:
if they do lose ... well let's just say that Schwartz's job instantly falls into jeopardy, thousands of fans stop watching, the Lions become a laughingstock all over again, half the players get depressed, Calvin Johnson checks out mentally, and it probably sets the Lions' rebuilding process back about 2 seasons. A win means nothing, but a loss would be detrimental. This is the most important game in years.
What else is there to say!!?!? I mean, seriously ... Detroit ran the ball for a measly 76 yards against a defense that allows nearly 190 rushing yards per contest! Either Jahvid Best's turf toe really is a problem, or the guy stinks and is overrated. It's either one or the other, and we better hope to God it's the toe. Shaun Hill threw 50 passes and at least 20 of them were HIDEOUS. Brandon Pettigrew looked like freaking Kwame Brown in a #84 Lions jersey. The only defensive player who seemed to give a crap was freaking Lawerence Jackson who's just trying to keep his job.
But really, this pathetic game come down to one statistic - 11 penalties for the Lions, 4 for the Bills. Detroit dominated in total yards (390 to 290), in time of possession (33 to 27), and had at least the 3 best players on the field (Calvin, Suh, KVB). Honestly, who IS the best player on the Bills roster? I can't even think of one plausible option... maybe Jairus Byrd?? Or maybe Marcus Stroud who was washed up 3 years ago? Maybe Lee Evans???
This loss is absolutely PATHETIC. Just wretched. A complete disgrace. Detroit might have actually had the TEN best players in this game. UGGHHh!!!!!
Okay, let's go back to the 11 penalties for a second.
1st quarter:
FALSE START on Will Heller. Gives Detroit a 1st and 15, leads to a punt.
HOLDING on Rob Sims negates a 7 yard run.
FALSE START on Peterman. Moves us from 2nd and 6 to 2nd and 11, leads to a punt.
ILLEGAL MOTION on Ashlee Palmer on the punt. Gives Buffalo 5 free yards.
NEUTRAL ZONE INFRACTION on Suh. Give Buffalo 1st and 5.
ENCROACHMENT on Corey Williams. Another 1st and 5.
2nd quarter:
HOLDING on Gosder Cherilus. Negates a 3 yard run on 3rd and 2, instead the Lions punt.
HOLDING on Jeff Backus. Gives Detroit a 1st and 20, which leads to a punt.
3rd quarter:
FALSE START on Backus. Moves 3rd and 8 to 3rd and 13, leads to punt.
4th quarter:
FALSE START on Tony Scheffler. First and 15.
FALSE START on Dominic Raiola. Moves Detroit from 4th and 1 to 4th and 6.
That's a whopping 8 penalties on the offensive line plus the tight ends. 2 on defense, 1 on special teams. But EIGHT on the offensive line?? REALLY?? What happens if we DON'T commit a penalty on 3rd and 2, and we gain the 3 yards, and then we're at the Buffalo 40 yard line with a 1st and 10. Worst case scenario, we kick a field goal. That could have easily been the difference in the game. We easily could have, and in fact WOULD have, won this game without the 5 false starts and 3 holdings.
Don't blame the defense. We allowed only 14 points and less than 300 total yards. Fitzpatrick had only 12 completions. The secondary played well (granted, against a historically pathetic offense). I anticipated Steve Johnson having 12 catches for 180 yards and 2 TDs. He only caught 3 balls for 37 yards. I repeat: do not blame the defense.
Blame the offensive line, blame the running backs, blame Shaun Hill, and most of all, blame the coaching staff. Five false start penalties is way beyond unacceptable. Jim Schwartz can say all the right things, wear the hip khakis, cross his arms and scowl like a Hollywood actor trying to portray a hard-nosed coach. But at the end of the day, if his offensive line is committing a false start penalty FIVE times in a game against 0-8 Buffalo, he needs to be seriously evaluated.
Oh and one other guy to blame. Matt Stafford. Stupid jerk.
How about somebody NOT to blame? Let's go with Calvin Johnson. 'Tron put up 10 catches for 128 yards and a score. That's the kind of line that will get you invited to Honolulu. In fact I think Calvin could go ahead and book his Pro Bowl ticket right now. The only only sure bet in the NFC this year is Roddy White. Calvin is in line for the #2 spot. His only other competition is Hakeem Nicks and the two Eagles. No one else is close.
Good thing Calvin's not in the AFC, where Andre, TO, Lloyd, Wayne, Marshall, Bowe and Boldin have turned the WR Pro Bowl race into a freaking dog fight.
One last thought about the Lions: a dreary, what-could-have-been introspection.
First, Detroit should have beat Chicago week one. Everyone knows this. So let's say they're 1-0.
The next 6 games Detroit goes 2-4 like they did. Legit. This was the tough part of the schedule. We're now 3-4. Then the Jets game. If Suh makes an extra point, or if Stanton takes the sack, or if we win the coin toss, we're 4-4.
Then this week, against the 0-8 Bills ... well let's just say we could have easily been 5-4.
Then there's the Cowboys next week, which should have been an easy win against the uninspired idiots, but alas, Dallas just decided to start trying last week, and now we're 10 point underdogs or something in that range. Then we've got New England 4 days later on Thanksgiving. So we'll be 2-9 in the standings. When we could have EASILY been 6-5 after Thanksgiving with 10 days to prepare for a home game against the Bears, meaning we're potentially 7-5 and have a home game with Green Bay, @Tampa Bay, @Miami and at home for the no-longer-trying Vikings remaining on the schedule. A very possible 8-8 or 9-7 year. That means we break the 75 year playoff drought.
Instead, Calvin's catch was ruled a noncatch, Suh missed an extra point, we got 11 penalties, Dallas just started trying one week before their game against Detroit, and we'll finish the season 3-13.
I HATE BEING A LIONS FAN!!!!!!!!!
On to the rest of the games ...
Falcons 26, Ravens 21
Matt Ryan won the battle of 3rd year quarterbacks convincingly. If Atlanta gets homefield throughout the playoffs, pencil them into the Super Bowl. Also, I nailed the pick.
Bears 27, Vikings 13
Favre dropped another stinkbomb (18/31, 170 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs and a fumble lost) and was outplayed by Jay effing Cutler. The Vikings are now 3-6, the Bears are 6-3, and if you put a gun to my head and asked Who's more likely to make the playoffs? I'd say Minnesota, and I'd ask you to kindly lower your weapon you spaz.
Jets 26, Browns 20 - OT
My most unlucky pick of the week. Took Cleveland to cover the 3 points, and should have at least got a tie, but the TD in OT with 16 seconds left sunk me. Cleveland played great. Two weeks in a row the Jets got a bogus win. If Peyton Hillis doesn't make the Pro Bowl I'm boycotting.
Colts 23, Cincinnati 17
I went back and forth about whether or not Cincy would pull off the backdoor cover. I picked Indy to cover by 7. They won by 6. It was a total coin flip. Cincy is now 2-7 and still not a word about Palmer being benched or Lewis being fired. How strange.
Dolphins 29, Titans 17
This might have been my dumbest pick of the week. Why did I pick the team with cancerous Randy Moss and an injured QB to win by 2 on the road against the need-to-win Fins? Stupid, stupid, stupid. Bad news though for Miami - it looks like Jake Long is hurt for next week, maybe longer. And generally speaking, when you lose your best player, it's bad news.
Bucs 31, Panthers 16
I thought the 7 point line was too high, but I underestimated the futility of the Carolina offense. Claussen and Co. moved the ball relatively well, but they kicked 3 field goals when they got close. Tampa is good enough to kill bad teams, but I think they're still a year away from contending with playoff teams.
Jags 31, Texans 24
Bah. I picked Houston and might have got the pick right if not for a stupid hailmary. Nothing worse than losing your pick on a hailmary.
Broncos 49, Chiefs 29
Last week I wrote this: Isn't Kyle Orton due for another 400 yard, 3 TD game.
Instead Orton had 300 yards and 4 TDs. I guess I switched the 3s and the 4s. Oops. But either way, I nailed the Upset.
Cowboys 33, Giants 20
All the Cowboys need to do is fire their coach every week and maybe they'll play inspired. But seriously - Dez Bryant moved past Best and Matthews for ROY and is now breathing down Bradford's neck. He had 104 receiving yards and a TD, plus 86 return yards. As we saw last year with Harvin, a WR/KR/PR can win rookie of the year.
Seahawks 36, Cardinals 18
In two games against the Cardinals, Mike Williams has 22 catches for 232 yards. If he could just play them every week, he'd put up 176 catches and 1,850 yards and rewrite the record books. But alas, the NFC West is still putrid and Arizona just lost their 4th game in a row.
49ers 23, Rams 20 - OT
This was St. Louis's chance to claim the NFC West as their division to lose. But I guess they're not ready yet. Defensively they let Troy Smith look like an old Randall Cunningham. But this loss cannot be pinned on Sam Bradford - dude completed 30 of 42 passes for 250 yards and no picks. If you throw 42 passes without an INT, that's solid. Rams covered the spread at least, so I got the Lock.
Patriots 39, Steelers 26
Vintage Tom Brady. He beat the snot out of the league's best defense. I watched this entire game from start to finish and didn't even see Troy Polamalu on the TV screen more than 8 times. Which means two things:
1) Troy wasn't aggressive enough
2) Tom avoided him at all costs
Even run plays were designed to go away from Polamalu. New England and their brilliant coach exposed Pittsburgh only weakness: their defense, without Troy, stinks. Oh, and their other weakness - the offensive line is terrible. Other than those two things, the Steelers are a Super Bowl team. But those two things are pretty important.
Eagles 59, Washington 28
Philly was only favored by 3, which is hilarious. I wrote that they should have been favored by 7. Maybe instead they should have been favored by 27. They still would have beat the spread.
Hours after Donovan McNabb was awarded one of the most puzzling contract extensions in NFL history (5 years, $78 million despite playing the worst season of his career and being benched 2 weeks ago for Rex Grossma), Michael Vick upstaged McNabb by playing quite literally one of the best games in NFL history with 20/28 passing for 333 yards and 4 TDs while also running for 80 yards and 2 more TDs. It's tough to do that even in Madden. Amazing. And simultaneously awful, since Michael Vick is a villain and now we are celebrating him. If he wins league MVP I might light my hair on fire.
Week 10 Picks: 8-6
Upset of the Week: 2-0 (I accidentally picked two)
Lock of the Week: 1-0
Lions Pick: 1-0
Overall: 77-63-4
Upset: 7-4
Lock: 6-4-1
Lions: 4-5
Let's check out the week 11 picks.
Chicago (6-3) @ Miami (5-4) - Thursday
Predicted Line: MIA by 1
Actual Line: MIA by 1.5
If there was ever a week Miami needed Jake Long, it's this week against Julius Peppers. But it looks like Long is out, which means they'll slide RT Vernon Carey over to the left side, and that'll probably result in pressure coming from both sides. It's gonna be a tough week to be without their Pro Bowl left tackle. Especially considering that both Chads (Henne & Pennington) will be unavailable and Tyler Thigpen has to start. But, it's worth noting that Thigpen is a scrambler and pressure in the pocket might be better suited for him than for either Chad. So who knows, maybe Thigpen will run 15 times for 100 yards.
We saw last week that defenses struggle on 4 days rest. Especially when they have to travel. In fact it's probably safe to pick all the home teams on Thursdays from here on out. Especially when the other team has Jay Cutler, who is due for a massively sucky outing. Look for underrated OLB Cameron Wake to have 2 or 3 sacks and force a fumble, and lead Miami to a surprising blowout victory. They need this game so much more than Chicago does and I think they'll play accordingly.
Buffalo (1-7) @ Cincinnati (2-8)
Predicted Line: CIN by 6.5
Actual Line: CIN by 5.5
I don't feel great about backing either team, but think I'll go with Cincy.
Detroit (2-7) @ Dallas (2-7)
Predicted Line: DAL by 5.5
Actual Line: DAL by 6.5
I don't know. I suck at picking the Lions' games. I pick against them when they're underdogs and they cover. I pick against them when they're favorites and they win. Maybe I need to just start picking for them every week? I mean, Detroit is a league-best 7-2 against the spread, believe it or not.
So this week ... we face off against the Jon Kitna & Roy Williams Super Duo of Vengeance. Although the 4 guys I'm most worried about are Miles Austin, Felix Jones, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant, in that order. I just don't see how Detroit has the defense to hang with all those weapons. We can't double team Austin, but if we leave him man-covered against Chris Houston that's bad news. If we try to shade Austin with a safety, that leaves Witten over the middle and opens up Felix Jones in the running game. No matter what we do, Bryant is single-covered by Alphonso Smith. Then there's Roy Williams against our nickel back, Nathan Vasher. Yikes. Yikes all the way around.
Really, our defense only has one hope, and that is of course Suh and the D-line. Dallas has an offensive line of big talented dummies. They've allowed 17 sacks and they have almost as many offensive penalties as Detroit does. (Detroit has 88, Dallas has 67, both rank in the top 5).
We've got mismatches up front, especially with Suh who will once again be double teamed. If we expose those mismatches and blitz effectively, we can put pressure on Jon Kitna, and we know how that works out. Forced throws into double coverage. Checkdowns on 3rd and long. Throwing the ball out of bounds. Scrambling blindly. Sheer panic and desperation. Kitna is a warrior and a fierce competitor, but unfortunately (or fortunately, now that he's our opponent) he panics under pressure and overreacts. Our only hope defensively is putting pressure on him early and often. Cunningham better have some stellar blitz packages ready for those big 3rd downs.
When Detroit has the ball ... it'll be interesting to see if we can take advantage of Dallas's lazy corners and 21st ranked pass defense. They rank 23th in total defense and 30th in points allowed. They suck in the secondary, and they don't have a prayer of covering Calvin Johnson even if they quadruple team him.
However, as I wrote last week, the loss to Buffalo and subsequent 2-7 record probably took the wind out of Calvin's sails more than any other player. He's done the same routine in the past: try hard until the season is effectively over, and then suddenly turn into a more fragile version of Randy Moss. I hope Calvin at least hangs on and keeps his Pro Bowl season going, but right now I think his only true motivation is to play for a big contract on a different team. It kills me to say that, but I think it's true.
And let's face it ... without Calvin Johnson, our offense is anemic at best. The running game is going nowhere against Jat Ratliff and the underrated Dallas linebackers. Jeff Backus has the worst matchup possible with DeMarcus Ware. Shaun Hill is going to be running for his life.
Everyone talks about how unfocused and stupid Dallas is, but believe it or not their defense is actually the least penalized defense in the NFL in terms of total penalities AND total yards. They've still got a stellar run defense (4.3 YPC, only 6 TDs allowed all year) and let's not forget they have a top 10 overall NFL player at outside linebacker. This matchup (Ware against Backus) is an absolute nightmare to gameplan against.
If we don't use tight ends and running backs to block Ware, then Shaun Hill is a dead man and Drew Stanton will see the field by halftime.
This game probably comes down to Calvin Johnson and how he dictates Dallas's defense. If they double team him regularly it might allow Detroit to run and throw short passes and move the chains. If Calvin struggles (he's been sitting out this week with a knee injury but will play Sunday), the entire offense will stand still.
Speaking of injuries, Jason Hanson will miss another game, as will defensive end Cliff Avril, which means more snaps for Turk McBride and Lawerence Jackson. We also know Kevin Smith is out and Jahvid Best is missing practice because of the lingering turf toe injury. Don't be surprised if fullback Jerome Felton has 5 or 10 carries, especially since he can help block Ware if needed.
Okay, enough talk. Let's just get to the pick and move on. I'm going with Detroit to cover. I think 6.5 is too many points for Jon Kitna to be giving, and Detroit has showed an incredible ability to keep games entertaining down to the end. Probably another devestating close loss. Maybe a Lions win. But it should be less than a blowout. I'm taking the Lions and the points.
Oakland (5-4) @ Pittsburgh (6-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6.5
Actual Line: PIT by 7.5
Last season, Oakland went into Heinz Field as 15 point underdogs and won by 3. As a direct result, Pittsburgh missed the playoffs. One of my favorite games of the decade.
But that was a different Pittsburgh team, and a different Oakland team as well. That was Pittsburgh without their best player, and a classic example of how bad the Steeler defense is without Troy. They gave up 308 passing yards and a 122 QB Rating to Bruce Gradkowski. You think Polamalu is going to let that happen. No chance.
This year, Pittsburgh will remember that game and be out for revenge. But unfortunately for them, Oakland is no longer a joke. They're playing insane right now, winning 3 straight by an average of 3 touchdowns. Darren McFadden is probably a top 10 running back right now and steadily moving up. And they've had a bye week to prepare for the league's best defense.
Both teams really want this game. Oakland wants to prove they're for real; Pittsburgh doesn't want to lose 2 straight and fall behind Baltimore. It's going to be hard-fought and probably closer than 8. Especially given the 3 injured starters on Pittsburgh's offensive line, and the fact that Oakland (27 sacks, 3rd in the NFL) can get after the quarterback. Richard Seymour is licking his chops. I'm not sure what the phrase means. But something like that.
I'll take Oakland and the points.
Houston (4-5) @ NY Jets (7-2)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 6.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 7
Houston has lost 3 straight, and their next 4 games are Tennessee, @Philly, Baltimore, and @Tennessee. They might actually go 5-11 after starting 4-2. Yikes.
But let's not rule them out of this game. Houston's glaring weakness is the secondary, and they get a break this week against the league's least accurate passer in Mark Sanchez. Literally, his completion percentage is just 54.7%. But Sanchez has a knack for the big play, and Santonio Holmes seems to be heating up, and Houston's secondary can't stop ANY BO DY. So the only way Houston stays in this game is if they, uh, score a bunch of points. Good thing I'm here for stunning analysis like that.
So how do Matt Schaub and Arian Foster stack up against Rex Ryan's blitz monsters?
Well, the biggest issue is Schaub's bursa sac in his knee. Whatever a bursa sac is, I'm not sure, but Schaub's is bursted and that sounds like bad news. He missed practice Wednesday and is questionable. If Dan Orlovsky starts instead, I'll be taking the Jets + 7. But my gut says Schaub will play because this game is a must-win for them.
Andre Johnson is also ailing, with an ankle injury keeping him off the practice field and also deemed as questionable. But that's probably just a precaution. There's no way Andre is going to miss his chance at Darelle Revis. Best WR against the best CB. It doesn't get any better.
The key to this game is Arian Foster. How can he do against New York's 5th rank rush defense? Foster rushes for 5.3 YPC and the Jets allow an average of 3.4. Whichever number is closer to reality will determine the winner of this game. And since I'm a big time Jets hater and a big time Texans love, it's a foregone conclussion that I'm taking Houston.
Baltimore (6-3) @ Carolina (1-8)
Predicted Line: BAL by 10.5
Actual Line: BAL by 10
The first line I guessed was BAL by 7.5, but then I remembered that Matt Moore is out for the year and Jimmy Claussen sucks. Carolina is starting Brian St. Pierre. No seriously, they really are. Check it out. Last week, St. Pierre was a stay-at-home dad. Then Claussen got a concussion, so the Panthers called him up. He joined the practice squad, then the 53 man roster, and now he is starting for Carolina against a defense with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Haloti Ngata, 3 of the 10 best defensive players in the NFL. This game should be hilarious. I'll pick Baltimore to win by at least 30 and I'll make it the Lock of the Week.
Cleveland (3-6) @ Jacksonville (5-4)
Predicted Line: JAC by 3.5
Actual Line: JAC by 1.5
Wow... I almost guessed the other way and said Jags by 5. Can't believe this line is so low.
However, I'm taking the Browns straight up. They've got the better team and they're playing better football by far. They're also playing with a lot more confidence, and home field advantage probably means less to the Jaguars than any other team. I'm not even sure if they have fans. I'll take Cleveland as my Upset of the Week. My man crush on Peyton Hillis knows no bounds.
Washington (4-5) @ Tennessee (5-4)
Predicted Line: TEN by 5.5
Actual Line: TEN by 7
Both secondaries stink (Titans ranked 25th, Skins ranked 31st) so both teams should be able to pass. The difference is of course Chris Johnson. He'll command 8 in the box as always and as a result Washington's defense will be ripped to shreds. I'd guess 40+ points for the Titans.
Washington has no running game, because Mike Shanahan can't keep a consistent running back for more than 3 weeks without changing his mind. He never could at Denver either. This week he'll go back to Ryan Torain but with a dash of Keiland Williams. Remember during the preseason when Washington had Portis, Parker and LJ? How'd that work out?
Tennessee just has a much better team. They'll dominate in this game. I really like this pick. Though I'd feel more comfortable if the line was a few points lower just in case. On a related note, I'm starting Randy Moss one last time in the A League. If he can't produce against the 31st ranked pass defense, he's done. I'll drop him if he has less than 50 yards. Go Titans!
Arizona (3-6) @ Kansas City (5-4)
Predicted Line: KC by 7.5
Actual Line: KC by 8
The Chiefs are the Buccaneers of the AFC. They can destroy bad teams, but they can't beat good teams. I think they'll win this game easily. I'll take them +8.
Green Bay (6-3) @ Minnesota (3-6)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 3
Hmmm ... I can't think of one interesting thing to say about this game. Guess I'll pick the Packers.
Atlanta (7-2) @ St. Louis (4-5)
Predicted Line: ATL by 3.5
Actual Line: ATL by 3
I'd just like to point out that I've guessed all the lines so far within 2 points. Now if I can just get the picks right.
If I gave you 10 guesses to this question - Which team leads the NFL in sacks? - would you have picked the Rams? Even with 20 guesses? I probably wouldn't have. But it's true. They also have the 12st best defense in terms of yards and 6th best in terms of scoring. If you take out that 44-6 blowout win in Detroit, St. Louis gives up an average of 15 points per game. Granted, they haven't played a single good offense this year except San Diego, but still. The effects of defensive mastermind Steve Spagnuolo are slowly but surely sinking in. St. Louis is rebuiling nicely.
That said, I don't think they can hang with an elite offense like Atlanta. Matt Ryan is an A+ quarterback indoors, and a C+ QB outside. This game is inside. I like Atlanta.
Seattle (5-4) @ New Orleans (6-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 11.5
Actual Line: NO by 12
Seattle sucks and the Saints are great , so this game is an easy call: New Orleans wins.
Oh yeah, the dang 12 point spread ... I think I'll take Seattle. We've seen time and time again that Sean Peyton doesn't like to run up the score. They'll win easily, but probably by 10 or 7. Seattle gets a garbage TD late and covers the spread.
Tampa Bay (6-3) @ San Francisco (3-6)
Predicted Line: SF by 4.5
Actual Line: SF by 3.5
It's inexplicable, but every week San Fran gets about 5 points more than they should. Maybe it's because Vegas is close to California? Maybe it's because the Niners were great in the 90s? I have no idea. But I guessed this line intentionally stupidly and ended up being close.
Just like last week, I think San Fran will win, but I hate this line. I'll go with Tampa since they're clearly the better team and they're getting 3 points. But it's a tough call: the Bucs are 5-26 on the west coast since 1976, and Tampa's 32nd rank rushing defense now gets Frank Gore after giving up 100 yards to Mike Goodson last week. On second though, I'll take the Niners. No wait, I'll take Tampa, because I just unashamedly love Josh Freeman. Dangit I don't know!!
Final pick: Tma.pps .aSasnuhhh San Fran. No Tampa. Definitely Tampa.
Indy (6-3) @ New England (7-2)
Predicted Line: Pats by 3.
Actual Line: Pats by 4.
Last time these teams played, it was in Indy and Bellichick went for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28 with 2 minutes remaining. Remember that? The Colts ended up winning. That game couldn't have been any more awesome.
So I clearly have no idea who to pick this week. It's like picking between Magic and Bird. Either guy could win. When in doubt ... take the points? Or take the home team? Ummm ...
I guess I'll take the points. Go Indy!
NY Giants (6-3) @ Philly (6-3)
Predicted Line: PHI by 4.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3
Until I see Michael Vick play like a human and not like a mythological demigod, I will be picking the Eagles. This line is atrocious. No wonder 87% of the public is taking Philly.
Denver (3-6) @ San Diego (4-5)
Predicted Line: SD by 9.5
Actual Line: SD by 10
I definitely think San Diego wins, but I can't lay double digits against a Denver team that just scored 49 points last week. I'll take the Broncs.
Monday, November 15, 2010
best fantasy football team ever
http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/boxscorequick?leagueId=337914&teamId=1&scoringPeriodId=10&seasonId=2010&view=scoringperiod&version=quick
check out my opponent's awesome team.
BTW - depending on how michael vick plays tonight, I will either go 10-2, 11-1, or possibly 12-0 in my fantasy leagues. Hoping for the elusive perfect week.
that makes me pretty happy because my spread picks SUCKED
maybe i should go back to picking the games outright?
that would have at least helped me get two more wins - the Colts & Bucs.
blah. The Lions suck. at least stafford wore a foreward facing hat and not a backwards one.
check out my opponent's awesome team.
BTW - depending on how michael vick plays tonight, I will either go 10-2, 11-1, or possibly 12-0 in my fantasy leagues. Hoping for the elusive perfect week.
that makes me pretty happy because my spread picks SUCKED
maybe i should go back to picking the games outright?
that would have at least helped me get two more wins - the Colts & Bucs.
blah. The Lions suck. at least stafford wore a foreward facing hat and not a backwards one.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
QB Power Rankings & Week 10 Picks
QB Power Rankings
The premise is simple: I'll rank the 32 teams based on their current quarterback situations. All factors are factored in - wins & loses, stats, tangibles, intangibles, age, etc. Let's start at #32 ...
32) Carolina Panthers - Matt Moore and Jimmy Claussen
Of the 48 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 50 passes this season, Moore ranks 44st and Claussen ranks 46th in terms of passer rating. The good news? Of the two quarterbacks who are worse than Claussen, one of them is former Panther Jake Delhomme.
31) Arizona Cardinals - Max Hall and Derek Anderson
Hall's QB rating is 48th out of 48 and his yards per attempt (YPA) is also dead last. His competition, Anderson, has a stunning QB rating of 60.2, an improvement over last year's mind-boggling 42.1.
30) Buffalo Bills - Ryan Fitzpatrick and the #1 Overall Pick
Statistically speaking, Fitzpatrick isn't terrible. He's actually been a fantasy gem. He's a top 10 quarterback in terms of yards-per-game and his 60% completion percentage and 85 passer rating are quite average. But let's be honest. The Bills are going 0-16 and they'll be taking Andrew Luck #1 overall.
29) San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith and Co.
The worst part about Smith isn't his 9 INTs or his 75 QB rating or even the 2-6 record. It's the fact that last season he put together a QB rating of 81.5 (18 TDs, 2350 yards) and made everyone believe in him. And then he reverted into bust mode.
28) Chicago Bears - Jay Cutler
The antithesis of leadership and poise. He racks up interceptions and sacks and loses and somehow maintains a reputation as a "star" player. Bizarre. Cutler's career record as a starter: 28-32.
27) Minnesota Vikings - Brett Favre
Based on this season alone, Favre deserves to be this low and possibly even one spot lower. His QB rating is sub-70, with 7 TDs and 11 INTs. He's having career lows across the board. He's got an All Pro running back to rely on, and he still can't score touchdowns or beat good teams. Yuck.
*Edit* I wrote this paragraph prior to Favre's 446 yard game. He's now got a QB rating of 75.7 with 9 TDs and 13 INTs. But I ain't moving him any higher until I'm convinced he could run one mile faster than I could run two.
26) Seattle Seahawks - Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst
The 35 year old baldy has 6 TDs on 236 passing attempts this season; that's the lowest TD/attempt ratio in the NFL. He's also got 7 INTs and the second lowest YPA among regular starters. His replacement, Whitehurst, had 64 passing yards and 2 INTs through 3 quarters against the Giants. I wonder why Pete Carroll hasn't traded for Leinart yet?
25) Cincinnati Bengals - Carson Palmer
True story - Carson's backup is his little brother Jordan, a former 6th round pick. Because of how badly Carson is playing (83 passer rating, 7 INTs, the Bengals are 2-6), it's only a matter of time before Carson is replaced by his little brother. How humiliating. How deflating. How hilarious.
24) Washington Redskins - Donovan McNabb and a dash of Rex Grossman
Certainly the strangest QB 'controversy' in recent memory. Has a Hall of Fame QB ever been benched for a career bust in a close game? There was no injury. It just made no sense. But all that aside, McNabb is having an awful year with 7 TDs, 8 INTs, and his lowest completion percentage in 9 seasons.
23) Oakland Raiders - Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski
Despite the Raiders outrageous 3 game winning streak, they still aren't getting much for the QB position. Among the 36 QBs with at least 100 attempts, Gradkowski ranks 35th and Campbell ranks 31st in terms of completion percentage. Although some of that blame goes to the receivers.
22) Detroit Lions - Stafford, Hill, and Stanton
I've spent more than enough time ranting and raving about Matthew Stafford. I disagreed with the decision to draft him #1, but I hoped he would prove me wrong. He hasn't. He now has more shoulder injuries (4) than career wins (3) and appears to be the complete antithesis of toughness.
Sunday he was tackled by the ankles on a wussy 2 yard scramble - a completely NORMAL and PAINLESS tackle - and he needed to roll around in pain for 5 minutes before getting his shoulder covered in ice, his arm wrapped in a sling, and his fucking backwards hat on.
In fact, Stafford's entire professional career can be summed up in two words: Backwards. Hat.
That's it. That's his legacy; that's why we're paying him $72 million. To wear a backwards hat and a cutoff-shirt and stand around smiling like a jackass. He doesn't even hold a clipboard like Scott Mitchell did. He doesn't wear a headset. He just stands there in a backwards hat.
Truly, Stafford didn't play horribly against the Jets. He was excellent on the opening drive, and okayish the rest of the game. He's an okay quarterback with the potential to be pretty good. But he's the wussiest son of a bitch I've ever seen. He's made out of porcelain.
I didn't want to draft him #1 overall because of concerns with accuracy, personality, leadership, decision-making, and general overratedness. But you throw in major injury concerns and a complete and total lack of toughness or competitiveness? No thank you. I'll take Shaun Hill.
Hill is the only reason Detroit is ranked #22 and not #29.
*Breaking news! As of the morning of 11-9-10, Matt Stafford will miss the rest of the season with a grade 3 shoulder separation. This injury is unrelated to the previous injury. And he's meeting with Dr. James Andrews (honestly, at this point, can't we just call him Dr. Jim?) to discuss the possibility of offseason shoulder surgery. I will now strangle myself with my belt.
21) Cleveland Browns - Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, and Jake Delhomme
How depressing is it that I'm ranking Colt McCoy's Browns ahead of Stafford's Lions? Extremely depressing. But it's also completely realistic, and I almost moved the Browns up a few spots. In 3 starts, Colt McCoy has beat the Browns and Patriots and almost beat the Steelers. Delhomme is finished (and making $7 million this season) and Seneca is much more valuable in Madden than he is in real life. Seriously, if you ever need a QB in Madden, trade a 5th round pick for Seneca Wallace and you've basically got Diet Michael Vick. For some reason Madden has always made Seneca inexplicably fast. Maybe it's because of this legendary college play, known simply as 'The Run.' Who knows.
McCoy has definitely proven to be the franchise quarterback for Cleveland, and looks like a bonafide steal for a third round pick. He's so much better than Jimmy Claussen that it's ridiculous.
20) Kansas City Chiefs - Matt Cassel
In 8 games this season, Cassel has yet to complete more than 20 passes. He's got a lousy completion percentage of 58.4% and averages just 177 yards per game. But the Chiefs are a running team and Cassel's only job is to limit mistakes. And with a 12/4 TD to INT ratio and only 11 sacks allowed, I'd say he's doing pretty well.
19) Jacksonville Jaguars - David Garrard
He's been the epitome of average for about 5 seasons, and is finally starting to dip into slightly worse-than-average. He has 4 games this season where his passer rating exceeded 120, and 3 times it was lower than 70. He doesn't have any games where his rating is between 63 and 121. WEIRD. If Jacksonville ever wants to turn the corner and be competitive in the AFC South, they've got to replace Garrard.
Here's a story that explains my point perfectly. After last week's win over the Texans, Peyton Manning was asked about the AFC South division race. Here's what he said:
"We have lots of good quarterbacks in this division, like Matt Schaub... Vince Young ... uhh... Jerard..."
It's probably a bad sign when your greatest rival doesn't even know how to pronounce your last name.
18) New York Jets - Mark Sanchez
It depends what stats you look at. The TD/INT is ratio is pretty good - 10 TDs and 5 picks. The yards per game (212) and the yards per attempt (6.7) are solid. But there's a reason Sanchez's QB rating is only 79.4, and that's his league-low 53.5% completion percentage. Bottom line is he's just not very accurate in the pocket. He's a great play-action QB and a great roll-out QB, but he still has a lot of developing yet to do.
17) St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford
I actually considered ranking him a few spots higher based on his potential, but this is about as high as he can go right now. His stats aren't overpowering; they're actually just mediocre compared to the rest of the league. But in terms of pure potential and intangibles, Bradford's the best QB in the league under 25, and no one's close. The Rams are 4-4, and should be considered the favorites to win the NFC West this year.
16) Miami Dolphins - Chad Henne
Henne's got all the physical tools (size, strength) but something seems to be missing. It's tough to put your finger on. Maybe it's a lack of confidence. Or something. He's just not a cut-throat competitor and never really was at U of M. His stats are very ho-hum. 8 TDs, 10 INTs, 238 yards per game, 63.5% completion percentage. That's not good enough when you have an elite receiver like Brandon Marshall. But let's be honest: Miami is 4-4 and 3 of their loses are to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and the Jets. Henne has faced a brutal schedule. The jury is still out.
15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Josh Freeman
In the preseason, I would have ranked Freeman somewhere between 32-30. I had zero confidence in him. Which goes to show that I broke one of my Cardinal rules: the importance of YouTube. I just assumed that Freeman was useless without actually watching him play. I was wrong. Check out this throw from his Kansas State days. Or this hilarious play from his rookie season. He's a stud in the making, and I totally missed the boat. It's one of my 5 biggest regrets from the 2010 offseason. (The other 4, in random order: buying the Cowboys hype; not giving Arian Foster a chance; thinking Carolina would be able to run the ball; and predicting the 49ers would run away with a pathetic NFC West without realizing that they are part of the patheticness.)
All that to say: I didn't understand Josh Freeman. He was a big slow black guy. I thought, "How can a QB be black and slow? No way. That won't work."
Well, I was wrong, and here's what I've learned. Josh Freeman is The Black Ben Roethlisberger - without the rapist tendencies. From now on, I resolve to call Freeman The BBR.
Ben was drafted in 2004, the third QB off the board, and was the largest starting QB in the league at 6'5", 240 pounds. The Big Ben nickname is quite literal.
Freeman, also the third QB taken in his draft, is even bigger at 6'6", 250.
Even more coincidentally, the QBs taken in 2004 were picks 1 and 4 - Eli and Rivers. They were considered slam-dunks, while Ben was considered a risk because he went to a smaller college.
In 2009, QBs were taken with picks 1 and 5 - Stafford and Sanchez - and again, both were considered sure-things. Freeman slid down to pick 19 largely because he went to Kansas State.
The comparisons continue. Freeman is unsackable. Ben is unsackable. Freeman throws a great deep ball. So does Ben. Freeman is at his best when he's scrambling, but he's not fast. Same goes for the Big White Rapist. Neither has a great offensive line, but they both improvise. Neither are flashy, but both produce wins. And the most obvious comparison - they both are at their best in the two minute drill.
Roethlisberger has 15 fourth-quarter comeback victories in his career, including six as a rookie. He's on pace to shatter the current record of 36 held by Dan Marino.
Freeman already has 5 such victories - in only 17 starts. He's 8-9 as a starter. Tampa's next two games are against doormats (Carolina and San Fran), so it's reasonable to assume that he'll soon be above .500 as a starting QB. That is amazing, especially when you consider that he's got no running game, a lousy defense, and not much of a receiving corps. I'm no longer a doubter; I'm officially on the bandwagon for the BBR.
14) Tennessee Titans - Vince Young and Kerry Collins
Ever since the melodramatic 2008 season where Vince Young went mysteriously missing and was reportedly depressed and possibly suicidal, I've had difficulty trusting him as the Titans starter. His stats this year have been awesome (103.1 QB rating is second best in the league) and he's thrown just 2 INTs compared to 9 touchdowns. But can you really trust the guy? I'm not sure. He's unquestionably one of the greatest college football players of all time, but I'm still not sold on his skills translating to the NFL, or on his mental state from week to week. I think his 103.1 rating can be directly attributed to Chris Johnson commanding 8 in the box on every snap. I think on an average offense VY's passer rating would be in the mid 80s.
Collins has made 3 starts this year (2-1), and 6 starts last year (1-5), but went 12-2 in 14 starts during the Titans 2008 season. At 37 years old he's not in peak athletic shape, but he can still throw a deep ball. He gets the job done like a typical 15 year veteran. Efficient, but not exciting.
13) Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton & Tim Tebow
The good news? Kyle Orton is on pace to throw for 5,024 yards, just 60 yards shy of the NFL record.
The bad news? They drafted Tim Tebow with the 25th overall pick, passing up on Nate Allen, Koa Misi, Devin McCourtey, Dan Williams, Taylor Mays, Brandon Spikes, and about 15 other defensive players that they really could have used to bolster their 31st ranked rushing defense.
But back to the good news. Orton finally shaved his hideous neckbeard, and now looks and plays like the real deal. He's making a Pro Bowler out of Brandon Lloyd. He's a fantasy dreamboat. He's completing better than 61% of his passes and has twice as many TDs as INTs. The reason Denver is only ranked 13 and not in the top 10? For one, because of the impending Tebow controversy which is only about 8 months away, and for two, because it's difficult to trust Kyle Orton until he proves his longevity.
12) Dallas Cowboys - Tony Romo and Jon Kitna
I bet you thought they'd be ranked a whole heck of a lot worse than this, didn't you? Well, they probably should be, considering the Boys woeful 1-7 record and negative 71 point differential this season. But I'm not a reactive type, I'm more big-picture. For one thing, I think Dallas finishes the season with at least 5 wins, and for another thing, I think Tony Romo bounces back next year with at least an average quarterback season.
Prior to his season-ending injury, Romo ranked 7th in the NFL in passer rating, throwing 11 TDs compared to 7 INTs, and a 69.5% completion percentage which ranked second to only Drew Brees. Romo's YPA was 8th, his YPG was 5th, and that was all without any semblance of a running game in Big D. I know this sounds preposterous in the wake of Dallas's abysmal season and Wade Phillips's firing, but I'll say it anyway: Tony Romo is a good quarterback.
And next year, the Cowboys are going to sneak up on people. Especially if they land a top 3 draft pick (which they might) and draft lockdown cornerback Patrick Peterson (who they desperately need.)
11) Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco
My preseason pick for Super Bowl MVP has been adequately successful with a 88.9 passer rating and a tidy 6-2 record. But with Boldin, Mason and Heap at his disposal, as well as a top 5 running back and an elite offensive line, I hoped his rating would at least be in the 90s. I'm frankly a little disappointed.
10) Houston Texans - Matt Schaub
Another mild disappointment. Schaub threw for 4,770 yards last year and this year is only on pace for 4,016. Still good. Still worthy of the top 10. But I honestly expected more, given his receiving crew. The emergence of Arian Foster has actually hurt Schaub's production when it should have helped. And the bottom line is this: Schaub is a great QB for the first 3 quarters, but I don't trust him when the game is on the line.
9) Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan
At home, Matty Ice is 17-3. He's thrown for 25 TDs and 11 INTs. He has a 64.3% completion percentage, a 7.8 YPA and did I mention, a sparklingly 17-3!! record.
On the road, Ryan is 9-11, with 26 TDs, 18 INTs, a 57.5% completion percentage and 6.5 YPA.
In the Georgia Dome, Ryan is a top 6 NFL quarterback hands-down. But overall, 9th might be generous. If he ever wants to win in the playoffs, he better learn to win on the road.
8) New York Giants - Eli Manning
You might be surprised to see Eli this high, considering I've called him Dopey and Goober and said that he wouldn't even be in the NFL if his last name was Jones. Those were all truisms a couple years ago, but he's really emerged into a real NFL quarterback. He might be the second smartest QB in the NFL (behind his brother) and he really understands how to spread the ball around to 3 different receivers, an underrated quality that only a few quarterbacks have.
He's also one of the few QBs who realizes that when you're on the goal-line, it's okay to audible to a running play if you know it'll get you the score. It won't show up on your stat sheet, but it will help your team win. Peyton does this all the time. So does Brady. But look at a guy like Cutler or Stafford or even Favre. Never in a million years will they call a running play on the 2 yard line. They want that score. Not the case with Eli. He really gets it. And the Giants are 6-2. No coincidence.
Here's a true story which explains my love/hate relationship with Eli Manning:
A couple weeks ago, after an embarrassing softball game in which I batted 0 for 3 with two strikeouts and a weak groundball to the pitcher (yes it's possible to strike out in softball!), my dad and brother and I went to the Beltline Bar for the best wet burritos in Grand Rapids. It was Monday night, and the Giants were playing Dallas. Eli was warming up, throwing fade routes to Nicks and Manningham, and he looked towards the camera in his signature dopey way, like he was trying to figure out a math puzzle in his head. That's when I said, out loud:
"Every time I look at Eli Manning, the first thought I have is what a dopey-looking loser he is. Then, I realize that I look a lot like him. We have the same haircut and we make the same facial expressions. If I was in the NFL, I would be Eli Manning. And that makes me kinda depressed."
7) Philadelphia Eagles - Mike Vick and Kevin Kolb
From a football perspective, I'm a believer in both these guys. Philly might be the best quarterback-controversy team of the past decade. Both guys can play. It's a good problem to have. In psychology, they call it positive stress, or eustress.
Vick is still an incredible athlete despite the years in jail. He can elude the pass rush better than every other quarterback in the NFL. Maybe ever. He can run for 15 yards on every down if he chooses, but he's learned to use his teammates and throw the ball. And believe it or not, Mike Vick's 105.3 passer rating is the league's best. No wonder the Eagles are unbeaten when he starts.
Kolb is a great passer. He's very similar to Rodgers or Rivers in terms of his playing style. He stays in the pocket and throws downfield. He's probably the QB of the future for Philadelphia, because Vick is a free agent in 2011 and unless the Eagles win the Super Bowl you can bet he'll be taking the best offer.
Obviously, I don't like Michael Vick as a person. (I think I've talked about this before). But as a quarterback, I've got to rank him as 7th best in the NFL right now.
6) Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Ruthlessraper
See Freeman, Josh.
Ben is amazing on the run, and amazing with 2 minutes left in the half. He's a competitor, a proven winner, and a leader. Unfortunately, he's also a two-time rapist and that fact is undeniable.
If he can get his life together, or at least do a better job of hiding his disgusting lifestyle, he'll stick with the Steelers for another 10 years, break all Bradshaw's records, win another Super Bowl or 2, and be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. If he rapes another 16 year old girl or crashes another motorcycle or does one more stupid thing, I think his career is pretty much shot. He's walking a very thin line.
5) New England Patriots - Tom Brady
This is where it gets difficult. Identifying the top 5 was easy, but ranking them in order was brutal. Tom gets the short stick not because he's a slouch, but because four other guys have just outplayed him for the past 3 seasons.
Since his magical 2007 season, Brady's been on the fringe of elite quarterbacks. Last year his QB rating was 96.2, and this year it's at 95.7. Very consistent, but not overly astounding. He's playing like the 2004 Brady who limited mistakes and won games, and not like the 2007 Brady who tore defenses to shreds and ran up the score every single week. His cut-throat mentality seems to be missing, and instead we find him on magazine covers holding roses and petting baby bunnies. His haircut alone should keep him out of the top 3. He's got a ways to fall before I could kick him out of the top 5, but he's also lost some ground on his biggest rival, namely Peyton Manning.
Does this mean the Patriots aren't serious Super Bowl contenders? Not at all. Brady's dink-and-dump routine won them 3 Super Bowls before Moss ever showed up.
4) Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers
You may remember me calling Rodgers the favorite to win league MVP this season. Turns out that prediction won't come true, but Rodgers has played pretty darn well despite losing most of his team to injuries. He's got 15 TDs (plus 3 rushing TDs) to 9 INTs, 256 yards per game (and 20 rushing yards per game), and a 63.4% completion percentage. Solid. Especially considering the complete lack of a running game and the oft-bogus protection of the offensive line.
But one statistic stands out when it comes to Rodgers. Zero. As in, zero career playoff wins. I know this is only his third season as the starter, but he's got to at least make some noise in the playoffs if he wants to be taken seriously in the future.
3) New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees
All the Madden Curse did was knock him from #2 to #3. That's not bad. In fact, Brees is set to lead the NFL in completion percentage for the second straight year and the Saints are heating up at the right time. They''ll win their next four games easily (Seattle, Dallas, Cincinnati, St. Louis) and then they'll be 10-3. As good as the Packers, Falcons and Giants look right now, I'm not betting against Brees making another Super Bowl run.
Despite ugly loses to the Browns and Cardinals, it's been an impressive season of resilience for Brees. Remember last year he had that hideous 3 INT game against Miami? People started to doubt him, and he responded by winning the next 7 games.
He's not going to break any records this season, but he'll be in the playoffs again and I sure won't bet against him once that happens.
2) San Diego Chargers - Phillip Rivers
Where to begin ... how about by copy-pasting something I wrote a week ago:
From a stats perspective, Rivers is the unquestioned MVP right now. He's throwing for 331 yards per game and is on pace to shatter the single-season record. He's a top 5 quarterback in every stat, and has a QB rating of 98.9 (*make that 102.9) In fact, Rivers's career passer rating is a 96.9, better than Manning, Brady or Brees. Or Montana, or Unitas, or Elway, or Marino, or ... any quarterback to ever play football in the NFL.
Seriously.
I'm not saying Rivers will keep up this torrid pace, but I am suggesting that his nickname should henceforth be 'The PR Machine.' Because his initials are P.R., because he plays like a machine, and because of the P.asser R.ating thing. It's too bad the Chargers are 3-5 (*now 4-5), otherwise we'd have our MVP right here.
The PR Machine continued his assault on the record books last week by torching Houston for 295 yards and 4 TDs. He began the game by completing his first 12 passes and oh by the way, he was missing not only Antonio Gates but also the first 3 receivers on the Chargers depth chart. His leading pass catcher was Seyi Ajirotutu, who had 111 yards and 2 TDs.
After the bye week, Rivers will get not only Gates back but also Floyd and Naanee. And Vincent Jackson could come back the week after that. All he did last season was catch 9 TDs and 1167 yards. As record-breaking as Rivers has been from weeks 1 to 9, he might be even better the second half of the season.
I mean, what else can you say? He's on pace for 5,232 passing yards and 34 TDs and has a league-best 8.95 yards per attempt. His yards per completion (13.6) is just unbelievable. If the Chargers make the playoffs, Rivers has to be named MVP.
The question is: how big of an if is that? Remaining on the schedule is one tough game (@Indy), two vital division games (KC and Oakland), and 4 seemingly easy games which San Diego can't afford to lose. If they go 5-2 in those games for a 9-7 finish, that should win the AFC West. Which will win Rivers the MVP, save Norv Turner's job, and make the next guy on the list pretty upset.
As Mike Greenberg brilliantly said on the radio this morning: "However good you think Phillip Rivers is, he's even better than that." Couldn't say it better myself.
1) Indianapolis Colts - Peyton Manning
Somewhat of a lifetime achievment award I guess, because Rivers has really outplayed Manning (and everyone else) this season. But consistency and stability are the intangibles which Peyton has proven and Rivers has not. Manning has the right demeanor, and that might be Phillip's one weakness.
You can try to argue with Peyton being #1 if you want, but it would be futile. He's got 16 TDs and 4 interceptions, 310 yards per game, a 65% completion percentage, and a 96.1 passer rating. All of those stats rank in the top 5 among quarterbacks, and as much as injuries have decimated Rivers' offense, Peyton has been just as affected. Garcon and Collie have been in and out, the running game has been basically worthless, and Peyton's favorite target Dallas Clark is going to miss at least 10 weeks. And despite all that, Peyton's having one of the best seasons of his illustrious career.
When quarterbacks such as Matt Stafford throw interceptions, you hear this phrase a lot: "That one really wasn't his fault." Sometimes it's true, sometimes it's a stretch. But here's something for you to consider:
Peyton is second in the NFL in passing attempts with 351, and yet 28 quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions than him. Maybe the 'not your fault' INTs could have been avoided by a better play call or an audible? And maybe, since Peyton is the only quarterback with an encyclopedic knowledge of all things football, the reason he doesn't throw INTs is because he sees them coming before he even snaps the ball? Maybe excellence at the QB position isn't just about hearing the play, taking the snap and letting 'er rip, but maybe it's about preparation, study, and improvisation at the line of scrimmage. Maybe the reason Peyton is set apart from the other 31 guys is because he is not only the best player in the NFL, but also the best play-caller in the NFL.
With that, let's hit the week 10 Picks:
Baltimore (6-2) @ Atlanta (6-2) - Thursday Night
Predicted Line: ATL by 2.5
Actual Line: ATL by 1
As I mentioned above, Matt Ryan is a beast at home and that's the only thing that makes this a tough call for me. Baltimore's greatest strength is stuffing the run (Haloti Ngata is having an All Pro season) and that presents a problem for Michael Turner.
On the other side of the ball, Dunta Robinson will match up against Anquan Boldin in a battle between two very physical players. Should be interesting to see if Ray Rice can do anything against Atlanta's 5th ranked run-defense.
I think this'll be a really close game. Neither team will have much luck running the ball, which should mean it comes down to special teams, and one or two big plays on offense. In that case, it's unpredictable. I wish the line was a tad higher because I would take the points either way. I don't think either team will win by more than 3 or 4. But in a straight-up pick, I've got to lean towards the QB who is 17-3 at home.
Bonus pick: the over/under for total score of this game is 43.5, and I really like the under.
Detroit (2-6) @ Buffalo (0-8)
Predicted Line: BUF by 1
Actual Line: BUF by 3
If you're wondering why this line is what it is, it's because Matt Stafford is out. And Vegas, like the rest of the idiots in football world, still think he's a rock star. It's ridiculous. Fortunately for the Lions, Shaun Hill is twice the quarterback Stafford will ever be, and that makes this an easy pick. Even if Detroit loses the most depressing game of the decade to 0-8 Buffalo, I don't think it'll be by more than 3 points. But if they do lose ... well let's just say that Schwartz's job instantly falls into jeopardy, thousands of fans stop watching, the Lions become a laughingstock all over again, half the players get depressed, Calvin Johnson checks out mentally, and it probably sets the Lions' rebuilding process back about 2 seasons.
A win means nothing, but a loss would be detrimental. This is the most important game in years.
For that reason alone, I have to pick the Lions.
Minnesota (3-5) @ Chicago (5-3)
Predicted Line: MIN by 2
Actual Line: MIN by 1
Okay, so here's the latest update:
-4 weeks ago: Favre plays his old team the Jets, and it is revealed that he also takes pics of his private parts on his cell phone and sends them to girls. Creepy, weird, and Vikings lose.
-3 weeks ago: Favre plays his old team the Packers. He gets booed, he can barely walk, Vikings lose.
-2.5 weeks ago: Moss lashes out at local caterers and says he wouldn't feed their food to his dog. Teammates and coaches are concerned.
-2 weeks ago: Moss plays his old team the Patriots; he has 1 catch for 8 yards. Favre still can barely walk. Vikings lose.
-2 hours later: Moss laments in his postgame conference about how much he misses New England. He makes a fool of himself and says he'll ask the questions from now on.
-The next day: Moss is waived by Minnesota. Vikings players are stunned. Brad Childress yells: "Ask yourself THAT!"
-Last week: Percy Harvin gets in a screaming fight with Childress just minutes before kickoff. Vikings go down 24-10 to horrible Arizona but end up winning in OT. Favre has a career day with 446 yards.
-This week: anonymous Vikings players say they "hate" Childress and "are winning despite him."
Here are my first two thoughts:
1. Percy Harvin is being quite clever by using the alias "anonymous " to state his feelings for Childress.
2. Whichever Vikings player said they are winning despite their coach should check the standings. Minnesota is actually losing. They're 3-5.
And as if that's not enough, here are a couple more tidbits to add to the drama:
1. Another Vikings player (or maybe Harvin again) added a little fuel to the fire by saying: ""We got too many good football players, and we won't lay down like Dallas. " Nothing like picking on the 1-7 team who just fired their coach. Real classy.
2. Percy Harvin is out for this Sunday's game with migraines. Very convenient time for migraines. Hmm... I wonder if they'll mix up the Vikings injury report and it will say: "Anonymous is out with migraines"? Wouldn't surprise me at this point.
So ... just another week in the Soap Opera that is Minnesota 2010 football. I don't even care about this game, I just want to see what kind of crap happens this week.
As for a pick, I'll take Minnesota. Dysfunctional team triumphs over a sucky team.
Cincinnati (2-6) @ Indianapolis (5-3)
Predicted Line: IND by 9
Actual Line: IND by 7
Peyton Manning doesn't lose at home, and he doesn't lose two in a row. Colts will win.
Now that we got that settled, let's look at the line. Seven. The question with a line like this is whether Cincy can keep it close or score some TDs in garbage time. Ultimately this spread will be determined by whether the Colts blow it open 14-0 in the first quarter or not. All the Colts injuries worry me just a little. And Cincy has two pretty good CBs so Peyton might opt to run the ball early. Plus there's always a chance that Ced Benson runs well and controls the time of possession and keeps Manning on the sidelines. That's the smartest way to play against the Colts, but my guess is the Bengals aren't quite that smart. And the Colts will stack the line on 1st and 2nd down and force Carson to throw on them.
I'm not overly confident with either outcome. Carson usually puts up some gaudy numbers in garbage time. But there's the Freeney & Mathis factor once Cincy is in obvious passing mode. So, I guess I'll pick the Colts +7.
Houston (4-4) @ Jacksonville (4-4)
Predicted Line: JAC by 2.5
Actual Line: JAC by 1.5
It's kind of strange that these teams are both 4-4 because I think of Houston as a good team and Jacksonville as a bad team. But this pick isn't easy. Jacksonville always rises to the occassion against division rivals. Well maybe not always. But usually. And DeMecco Ryan's season-ending injury has really hurt Houston's defense. Plus Andre Johnson has been somewhat injured since about week 2. So I dunno ...
Both of these secondaries are awful (Jags rank 28th, Texans rank 32nd). In terms of passing offense, Houston ranks 11th and Jacksonville ranks 28th. Both teams can run well (Houston is 5th, Jax is 8th) and both are average at stopping the run (Jags are 22nd, Texans are 11th but just lost Ryans). This game should be high-scoring. The over/under for total points scored is 50, which is the highest of the week. And if it's gonna be a shootout, I guess I'll have to lean towards the better passing offense. Which would be Houston.
Tennessee (5-3) @ Miami (4-4)
Predicted Line: MIA by 1
Actual Line: TEN by 1.5
This line gives no respect to Miami who has lost 4 games all to elite teams. But, let's take a look at the two big stories of this game:
1. Randy Moss. He'll play for the Titans. Will he do much? Probly not. Will he stretch the defense and let Sonic the Hedgehog run wild? Probably.
2. Chad Pennington. He's starting for the Fins in place of ineffective Chad Henne. Is that a good thing for Miami? Will he be a spark for them, or will he be Chad Pennington?
Both of these things favor Tennessee. I'm a little hesitant to pick a road team for the 4th time in 6 games, but whatev. I'll take the Titans.
NY Jets (6-2) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Predicted Line: JETS by 2
Actual Line: JETS by 3
Everyone's picking the Browns, after they've beat New Orleans and New England in consecutive games. It would almost be an upset if i took the Jets.
But based on last week alone, the Browns beat the crap out of a 6-1 team while the Jets only beat Detroit because Detroit beat themselves. Cleveland is playing with TONS of confidence right now and Peyton Hillis is, dare I say, unstoppable. The Jets looked like trash last week. LT is still hiding the fact that he's washed up. Sanchez didn't look good. And the defense was basically Revis and a bunch of overrated clowns. In short, the Jets are who I thought they were.
So I, like everyone else, am taking Cleveland.
Carolina (1-7) @ Tampa Bay (6-2)
Predicted Line: TB by 7.5
Actual Line: TB by 6.5
You may have heard that Matt Moore is lost for the season. Jimmy Claussen will take over for Carolina and both of his running backs will be out, leaving Mike Goodson (who??) in the backfield. Stud RT Jeff Otah, who's been trying to recover from a knee injury all season, was just placed on IR as well. In short, the Carolina offense is in shambles.
But I'm tenative to pick Tampa to cover a 7 point spread when they're so young and unproven. Josh Freeman doesn't win blowouts, he wins comebacks. And as bad as Carolina's offense is, Tampa's defense isn't much better. There's a chance that Goodson actually does something against Tampa's 30th ranked rush defense. According to wikipedia, Goodson is relatively fast and ran a kickoff back for a TD during the presseason. Maybe he'll be a fantasy sleeper this week. I'm not rushing to pick him up. But just saying ... maybe.
Either way, I'll take Carolina to cover. This line just seems too high.
Kansas City (5-3) @ Denver (2-6)
Predicted Line: KC by 1
Actual Line: KC by 1
On the surface, I'd say that Denver is terrible against the run and KC's two-headed rushing attack should go wild. I'd say that Denver is one-dimensional on offense and the Chiefs are clearly the better team and all they have to do is win by 1.
But, two questions:
1. Isn't the NFL still a quarterback league?
2. Isn't Kyle Orton due for another 400 yard, 3 TD game?
Because of how futile Matt Cassel has been over the past ...err, two seasons ... and because of how dominant Kyle Orton has been this season ... I'm gonna go with Denver as my Upset of the Week.
Dallas (1-7) @ NY Giants (6-2)
Predicted Line: NYG by 8.5
Actual Line: NYG by 13.5
WHOA.
That line is hilarious.
I really don't know. I mean, how am I - in Grand Rapids, Michigan - going to predict whether or not the Cowboys' players actually give any sort of effort on Sunday in New York?
For the past few weeks Dallas simply gave up. The anonymous Vikings player was right. They just didn't try. But was that in an effort to get Wade Phillips fired? Are they going to start trying now for Jason Garrett? Or do they want to get rid of him too so they can have Bill Cowher next year? And why doesn't Jerry Jones starting cutting players like Mike Jenkins who are clearly not trying?
All those questions and more will be answered, but this game is basically a coin flip as far as the line. Dallas isn't as bad as their record indicates, but I've picked them 2 weeks in a row and been burned. They simply aren't trying. But I think 14 points is too high. I'll pick them again. I'm an idiot.
Seattle (4-4) @ Arizona (3-5)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 3
Actual Line: ARZ by 3
Could I possibly be less interested in this game?
Last time these squads played Seattle won 22-10 in Seattle. I think Arizona should return the favor and win at home. But three things make me want to pick Seattle:
1) Arizona lost an OT heartbreaker last week and might be deflated.
2) Hasselbeck is at least 4 times better than Derek Anderson.
3) The spread. Very possible that the Cards win a tight game and Seattle covers.
So what the heck. I'll go with Seattle.
St. Louis (4-4) @ San Francisco (2-6)
Predicted Line: SF by 2
Actual Line: SF by 6
This spread is so horrendous that it makes me wonder how corrupt the gambling industry might be. Are there crooks like Tim Donaghy all over football? I mean, this line is just preposterous. 73% of the public is betting on the Rams, and I'm surprised it's not 99%.
Before I looked at the line I thought about taking San Fran to pull the upset. I thought they might be a sneaky pick. But to cover a 6 point spread? That's absurd! Isn't Troy Smith still their quarterback? How is the better team a 6 point underdog?!
I'm taking the Rams to at least cover the spread and I'll make that the Lock of the Week.
New England (6-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 4
Actual Line: PIT by 4.5
So Tom Brady, one of the greatest players in NFL history, has one bad game against Cleveland and all of a sudden he's a 5 point underdog?!?
Give me New England as the Upset of the Week, thank you very much.
Philadelphia (5-3) @ Washington (4-4)
Predicted Line: PHI by 5.5
Actual Line: PHI by 3
This line sucks. No wonder 90% of the voting is on the Eagles. I'll add to that percentage gleefully. This line should be closer to 7, not 3. The Eagles are clearly so much better than the Redskins in every possible way. Washington is 28th against the run, and they now face LeSean McCoy and a certain QB who can run with the ball if he chooses. They're also 31st against the pass, and face two deadly receivers in Jackson and Maclin.
Philly's defense isn't much to write home about (15th against the pass, 12th against the run) but Washington's feeble offense and retarted play-calling doesn't worry me much. Especially given the cerebral understanding that Andy Reid and Co. have of Donovan McNabb's tendencies. That is, if McNabb isn't mysteriously benched for Rex Grossman again.
How could anyone want to take Washington in this game? I know they're at home in a critical Monday night game against their hated rival, but still ... Philly is just so much better.
That's all I got. Enjoy week 10.
Go Lions.
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