Well, this is it - the last NFL pick of the season.
After a 138-114-4 regular season and a 6-4 playoffs thus far, this final pick will be the difference between 53.93% and 54.31%. Obviously, I need to get this pick correct to beat the 54% threshold. Let's look at the line ...
The spread is currently set at Packers By 2.5, with about 54% of the public taking Green Bay. This matchup has all the makings of a pick 'em, but between Rodgers' hot streak and the injury to Steelers' center Maurice Pouncey (their best offensive lineman), it makes sense for Green Bay to be slight favorites. No chance the line gets to 3 though.
On paper, Pittsburgh has the better team. I hate to admit it, but it's true. Green Bay has the better quarterback, but Pittsburgh has 7 of the 10 best players in this game, 6 of which play defense. I am just not quite as sold on Woodson or Raji or Hawk as super-dependable studs. My top 10 for this game looks like this:
1. Troy Polamalu, PIT
2. Aaron Rodgers, GB
3. Clay Matthews, GB
4. James Harrison, PIT
5. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
6. James Farrior, PIT
7. Lawerence Timmons, PIT
8. Charles Woodson, GB
9. LaMarr Woodley, PIT
10. Brett Keisel, PIT
The scary thing is that Pittsburgh might have 6 of the next 10 best players, and that's with Pouncey injured as well as stud DE Aaron Smith still out.
11. B.J. Raji, GB
12. Casey Hampton, PIT
13. Greg Jennings, GB
14. Mike Wallace, PIT
15. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
16. Nick Collins, GB
17. Bryant McFadden, PIT
18. Hines Ward, PIT
19. Chad Clifton, GB
20. Ryan Clark, PIT
But in the 20-30 range, it's all Packers.
21. Tramon Williams, GB
22. A.J. Hawk, GB
23. Cullen Jenkins, GB
24. Josh Sitton, GB
25. Ike Taylor, PIT
26. Ryan Pickett, GB
27. Donald Driver, GB
28. Desmond Bishop,GB
29. Sam Shields, GB
30. James Jones, GB
So while Pittsburgh has 13 of the 20 best players in this game, Green Bay actually has 16 of the best 30. And what's very interesting is that not a single Steelers offensive lineman makes the top 30.
That could be the difference in this game. How is Pittsburgh - especially without Pouncey - going to slow down the Packers' pass rush? Or will it just be the same old routine where Roethlisberger fends off defenders like little kids on the playground? Something tells me Clay Matthews won't be so easy to push aside.
On the other side of the ball, there will be plenty of blitzes thrown at Aaron Rodgers as well. The difference is he has a better cast of blockers in front of him. Not often are the Packers front 5 a better unit than the opposing team, but this is one instance. There should be plenty of sacks for both teams in this game.
However, these are probably the two best quarterbacks in the NFL when it comes to throwing from outside the pocket. Expect a lot of improv plays that appear broken but result in 30-40 yard gains. Whichever secondary can hang with their receiver for 5 to 7 seconds on broken plays will be more successful and probably win.
Rodgers' primary job is to spread the Steelers defense out and avoid throwing at Polamalu. Green Bay should go with 4 or 5 receivers early and often, and if they're smart they'll bypass the running game completely. It's risky to play a spread offense against Pittsburgh because it leaves guys like Harrison and Woodley with a free shot at Rodgers, but you've got to trust his decision-making ability and quick release. He's got you this far, and he's your only chance of winning it all.
The biggest mistake Green Bay could make would be trying to play the Steelers style of offense - pound the run to set up the deep pass. If they begin the game with an even mix of run and pass, they'll be punting frequently and pretty quickly get themselves into a blowout. This is not the time to experiment with James Starks. Trust. Your. Quarterback.
Pittsburgh desperately wants Green Bay to try to run the ball (key word being "try"), and if that happens more than 15 or 20 times, go ahead and give the Lombardi to Steel City for the seventh time.
Regardless of who wins this game, Pittsburgh will dominate time of possession. They'll grind the clock, convert third-and-shorts, and give Mendenhall every opportunity to wear down the Packers front 7. They don't want Matthews wreaking havoc in the backfield. Ben should have half as many attempts as Rodgers.
When Green Bay gets the ball, expect passes on 1st and 2nd down. Expect Rodgers to throw the ball upwards of 40 times. And don't expect to see much of Polamalu's giant hair on your television, because Rodgers will be avoiding him like the plague. In fact, you might see more of Troy's hair on commercials than in the actual game.
What makes this game so compelling and potentially a classic-in-the-making is the chess match between two great coaching staffs.
Both defensive coordinators are phenomenal at making adjustments and understand personnel. Their offensive counterparts are both good, but not as good. Mike Tomlin's calming presence gives Pittsburgh the edge as far as overall coaching. Mike McCarthy, a Pittsburgh native, might get caught up in the moment. I don't entirely trust him.
If Pittsburgh wins, it's going to be their style: fall behind, come back, play great defense, win in the last 2 minutes.
If Green Bay wins, it will have to be a near perfect game on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh doesn't make mistakes, but they capitalize on turnovers like no other. Rodgers will have to be efficient, ruthless, smart, and can't waste any possessions. And most importantly, the defense has to stop Roethlisberger from scoring in the 2 minute drill of both halves.
I've watched enough Steelers games to know that they score about 80% of their points in the final 2 minutes of the halves. If Green Bay keeps them scoreless in the final 2 minutes before halftime, that will be absolutely paramount. I'm dead serious.
What makes me nervous is that this game will almost certainly come down to a final possession, and when that happens Pittsburgh wins 95% of the time. They have a quarterback who is always at his best with the clock winding down (or, maybe a better way to say it is that when the clock is winding down he's a 99 overall but when it's early in the 3rd or 1st quarter he's a low 60) and they have a defense that absolutely thrives in the end of games. This game won't be won by a Rodgers TD with 30 seconds left. I'll guarantee that.
If Green Bay gets into a typical Steelers "win at the very end" game, they'll lose. They need to build a two-score lead and then play great defense. Make Pittsburgh try an onside kick with 1:20 left. If you give Roethlisberger 2 timeouts and 2 minutes to go 80 yards and kick a field goal, you've already lost.
As Agent Smith says, "Lieutenant, your men are already dead."
For some reason, my gut has been leaning towards Green Bay since they clobbered Chicago. Rodgers looks like the next in the Brady-Manning-Brees legion and I just hate the notion of Big Ben winning his 3rd Super Bowl ring despite being no better than Tony Romo.
Quick tangent - you know how everyone keeps saying that if the Steelers win, Ben will be in the same class as Tom Brady with 3 rings? That is so absurd that it makes me want to eat rusty scissors. That's like saying Mark Sanchez is the same as Peyton Manning because they've both been to the AFC Championship twice. Football is still a TEAM SPORT. Pittsburgh has like 14 Pro Bowlers on defense. Roethlisberger is merely a game manager. Brady is a game dominator. There is a big, big, big, BIG difference. They will never be in the same league. I don't care how many times Polamalu leads Pittsburgh to a title.
So like I said, I'm leaning towards Green Bay, and despite the 2.5 points, I'm going to go ahead and take them. Let's hope they put me above 54% for the year.
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Now, for a fun little break from my usual NFL picks, I'm going to try my luck at NBA picks. There are 7 games on tonight's docket, so let's see if I can get at least 4 of them.
Denver Nuggets @ New Jersey Nets
Line: DEN by 3
This might actually be one of the most interesting NBA games of the season, believe it or not. Why? Because you've got Carmelo playing in New Jersey, only NOT as a Net. Two weeks ago, nobody would have believed this was possible.
Since the trade rumors cooled down, Denver has been on fire, winning 4 of their last 5 with Melo scoring nealry 25 per game during that span. The Nets are moving in the other direction with 9 losses in their last 13 games. This game will show them what they could have been, as Melo goes for 30+ in a blowout. I'll take Denver -3.
Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers
Line: IND by 9
Toronto has lost 11 straight, but they don't deserve to be 9 point dogs to a team that's lost 7 of 8. Indiana just fired Jim O'Brien this weekend and will introduce Frank Vogel as the interim coach tonight. Pacers' GM Larry Bird promises to give more playing time to the young players, including Paul George and Tyler Hansbrough. During the Raps' 11 game skid, only 4 of those have been blowouts. This game should be close. I like Toronto +9.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat
Line: MIA by 17.5
I'm sure LeBron prefers playing his former team in the comfort of South Beach rather than flying north to face the angry mob of Ohioans who detest every cell in his body. Cleveland has lost 20 games straight (no, that's not a typo), while Miami is finally at full-strength. This game will be over by halftime.
The only question is whether Miami's bench will let Cleveland's bench crawl back within 18 points. Both benches stink, but I'll say the home-crowd keeps Cleveland from trying and Miami wins by 25 or 30.
Orlando Magic @ Memphis Grizzlies
Line: ORL by 2
Memphis is a surprisingly good home team, while Orlando is slumped in a 6-5 streak over their last 11 games. Is this a possible trap game? Nah. I'll take the better team when the line is this low.
Washington Wizards @ Dallas Mavericks
Line: DAL by 10
The toughest pick so far, as I'm 100% sure that Dallas will win, but completely unsure about the spread. Amazingly, Washington hasn't won a road game all season, and thanks to Flip Saunders's ineptness they might not all year. But Dallas rarely wins big. I feel like they'll win by 9 if I take them to cover. So I'm going with Washington +10.
Charlotte Bobcats @ Utah Jazz
Line: UTA by 3
Utah's best player, Deron Williams, has missed the last 3 games with a minor wrist injury. He's a gametime decision, but probably won't play again. However, I still like Utah. Charlotte is playing their 5th straight West Coast road game and will probably leave their legs in LA. Give me Utah -3 and a big game for backup point guard Earl Watson.
Milwaukee Bucks @ LA Clippers
Line: LAC by 3.5
As you might have heard, I'm a closet Bucks fan. I love the way John Hammond has re-built them. And they finally got Brandon Jennings back this weekend. However, it's nearly impossible to pick against the Clippers at home right now. Can't believe I just said that ... but the Clips have actually won 8 straight at home, something that hasn't been done since the 80s.
Super rookie Blake Griffin is averaging 25.5 points with 13.6 rebounds in January. He faces a tough matchup with the NBA's best shot blocker in Andrew Bogut, but Griffin has a huge advantage in athleticism. As Milwaukee begins a West Coast trip, I think they'll fall a little flat in this game. Give me the Clippers -3.5.
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If I get at least 4 of those picks correct, I'll be pretty happy. But if I miss all 7 and nail the Super Bowl pick, I'll be even happier.
GO Packers!!!!!!
Monday, January 31, 2011
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
The First Sixteen Picks
For some obnoxious reason, all of ESPN's articles that relate to the NFL Draft are considered "insider" information. I have to actually pay money to access them, and that's obviously unacceptable.
However, thanks to WalterFootball.com I found this site, which contains links to over 200 Mock Drafts. Needless to say, mocking the draft is one of the greatest obsessions in sports. It's more fun than the actual draft itself. This year I'm getting increasingly involved.
There are so many fascinating factors: Lucks's decision to stay at Stanford, the looming CBA, seven new head coaches, and the surplus of talent at some positions (DE, DT, QB) and complete void at others (RB, OG, S).
It all starts with the Carolina Panthers, who have been on the clock since late December. They lost their guy when Andrew Luck decided to become an architect, and now new coach Ron Rivera has a difficult decision to make. Of the last twelve #1 picks, at least five have been completely worthless. One was good but then went to prison. One has been consistently mediocre. Two have been phenomenal. The other three are Stafford (jury's out), Eli (good but not amazing), and Bradford (stud in the making).
For reference - the five worthless picks are: Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, David Carr, JaMarcus Russell, and Alex Smith. (Four quarterbacks.) The mediocre guy was Carson Palmer, and the phenomenal picks were Mario Williams and Jake Long. You probably know which guy went to prison.
One thing is for sure: Carolina won't be able to trade their way out of this pick. There is no clear franchise QB and no clear #1 pick, so they're stuck at the top, just like the Lions were in 2009. That year, we debated between Aaron Curry, Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, and Andre Smith, but ultimately settled on Stafford.
Carolina won't make the same mistake. They'll give Claussen another chance, knowing that if he fails completely they can fall back on Matt Moore, or a free agent to be signed later. A lot of mock drafts I've seen have Carolina taking a quarterback, but that simply won't be the case. They have far more pressing needs.
The Panthers need major help on the offensive line, especially at right guard, but there are no guard prospects even close to the being worthy of the #1 pick. They also desperately need a receiver, but that's not going to happen either despite A.J. Green being a Calvin-like talent. The pick is going to be defense.
Why? Well, first and foremost because Ron Rivera is a former defensive coordinator who learned the coaching ropes from Buddy Ryan and Lovie Smith. Secondly, because taking a receiver #1 overall without a quarterback is foolish. Even Matt Millen wouldn't be that stupid. And thirdly, because of Nick Fairley.
Fairley, the 6'5" 300 pound defensive tackle from Auburn, pretty much took over the #1 pick during the national "championship" game, in which he sort of dominated Oregon with 3 tackles for loss and a forced fumble. Fans saw the immediate impact that Ndamukong Suh had for Detroit, and think Fairely could have a similar impact.
If Carolina wants to take him, and I think they will, that's fine with me. Just know this: Fairely isn't half the player Suh is. I think they should pick defensive end DaQuan Bowers, but my guess is they will take Fairley.
And that would bring up the Denver Broncos, who will almost certainly take the remainder between Fairley and Bowers. They had the fewest sacks in the NFL last year, and although they'll get Elvis Dumervil back, they still need to address the front 7. New coach John Fox will almost certainly (call it 99.5%) switch the defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3, which means Dumervil either becomes a true OLB or moves to DE. More likely, they keep him at OLB and draft Bowers to play DE.
Denver could also look at A.J. Green, but with the development of Brandon Lloyd that's highly unlikely. The other possibility is a cornerback, as it appears Champ Bailey wants out, and the prospect of either Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara will be tempting. But Fox drafted Julius Peppers in his first year in Carolina, and Bowers is a similar player whom he won't be able to pass up.
So,
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
unless Carolina takes Bowers first, in which case I don't know if Denver will take Fairley, or instead go with a CB. Probably Fairley.
The third pick belongs to Buffalo, who holds a great position in the draft. They have needs all over the place (DE, DT, WR among them) and should take the best player available, which in this scenario is A.J. Green.
Buffalo needs a left tackle, but won't take one with the #3 pick. A smart move would be to trade backwards and take a guy like Solder or Carimi, but that means they have to find someone interested in the #3 pick. If Fairley and Bowers are gone, that would mean someone interested in Green or Peterson, or maybe a team wants to jump ahead of Arizona at #5 and pick a QB, but that will depend on whether Arizona needs a QB, or if they get one in free agency. It wouldn't shock me at all if Buffalo trades backwards to someone who wants Green, believing him to be the next Calvin or Fitzgerald. Such a team might be St. Louis (#14) or Jacksonville (#16) or even San Diego (#18), who will probably lose Vincent Jackson. A.J. Green is considered the best overall prospect in this draft, and Buffalo would be wise to trade backwards and see if they can get a 1st, 2nd and a 4th. They have too many needs to pass up an offer like that.
But it's hard to 'mock' any trades, so I'll just tenatively say that Buffalo takes A.J. Green, and hopes to get their QB next year.
Cincinnati picks next, and has already made two major mistakes by retaining Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer. I'm not normally a huge advocate of firing coaches, but Lewis really deserved it. His team didn't even try in more than half of their games. Palmer was hideous in 13 of the 16 games. They are doomed from the start.
Most mock drafts have Cincinnati taking A.J. Green, assuming T.Ocho will be gone, and Buffalo will take a defensive player. I think that if Buffalo doesn't take Green it's because they traded backwards so someone else could take Green. A player that good probably won't slip to #4.
In either event, Cincinnati shouldn't pick Green. They need to fix their pass rush, which had the second-fewest sacks next to Denver. To me, the smartest pick would be UNC's stud defensive end Robert Quinn, who I think is the most underrated prospect in this draft. He's being overlooked because of Bowers.
Peterson and Amukamara are not options for Cincinnati, because they're stacked at cornerback. But trading down might work, if they can find a team willing to give them a 1st and 2nd pick for this pick and a 3rd. Detroit might be such a team. Or Dallas, or Houston. With teams #7, #9, #11, and #13 all needing help in the secondary, trades might happen in the #4 to #6 range. A lot will depend on the Combine, and if Peterson or Amukamara emerges as a must-have stud.
I'll stick with the Robert Quinn pick for Cincy. So, my top four looks like this:
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
And that brings up Arizona, quite possibly the team with the most flaws from top to bottom. They have Larry Fitzgerald, and that's about it. Left guard Alan Faneca is expected to retire, and the offensive line was a sieve in the first place. They have no pass rush, no secondary, and no running game, not to mention to quarterback. If there's one certainty, it's that they won't pick A.J. Green if he freakishly falls past Cincinnati.
Taking a quarterback is one option, but as I've said before I think Arizona wins the Donovan McNabb Sweepstakes, which is ironic because McNabb isn't actually any good. If not McNabb, they might get Vince Young, Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, or even an old guy like Billy Volek or Jake Delhomme. It seems like Todd Haley's style to stick with his guys and not draft a QB. Especially with two young QBs - Hall and Skelton - who both have potential. Maybe not talent, but at least potential.
The reason they probably won't take a quarterback is that there isn't a clear choice. Most mock drafts have Missouri's Blaine Gabbert going first among QBs, but that baffles me. He's just the next in the line of big-armed, small-brained dolts. He's only the top ranked QB because Luck stayed in school, Mallet is terribly unintelligent, and Locker had a lot of interceptions against a tough schedule. I wouldn't pick Gabbert at all; do you really want to pin your franchise's future to a guy who's most famous highlight is getting destroyed by Ndamukong Suh?
Instead, Arizona should bolster their front 7 with Marcell Dareus, the DT/DE hybrid from Alabama. The Cardinals were 30th against the run this year, and need someone next to Darnell Dockett. Dareus would be a great pick. Now, if only they could get him to play left tackle as well, and running back, and linebacker...
Cleveland, at pick #6, doesn't have any pressing needs, but has moderate needs in the front 7 and at right tackle. Their biggest need is a receiver, but unless A.J. Green magically falls to them, they won't reach for Julio Jones. (Maybe they would trade with Buffalo to take Green ahead of the Bengals?) They also need a cornerback to replace Eric Wright, and an inside linebacker for their 3-4 defense.
With Dareus and Quinn gone, I expect Cleveland to take whichever cornerback they like between Peterson and Amukamara. My guess would be Amukamara, because one of Peterson's biggest strengths is kick-returning, and the Browns already have Josh Cribbs. So the top 6 looks like this:
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
5. Arizona - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
6. Cleveland - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Picking seventh is the 49ers, and that's where a lot of people expect the first quarterback to be taken. Again, I keep repeating this, but it will all depend on where McNabb and Vince Young and Kolb end up. The new rumor is that Carson Palmer wants a trade. I can't imagaine him going anywhere except Seattle (Pete Carroll, USC, reunited with Reggie Bush and Mike Williams, that's too easy).
But San Fran makes the most sense to draft a quarterback because
A) They desperately need one. Alex Smith and Troy Smith are both worthless, and are both likely leaving,
B) New coach Jim Harbaugh wants to start rebuilding with 'his own guy,' not some been-around-the-block scrub like McNabb.
If this were a different year, I'd say quarterback makes loads of sense for the 49ers. But this draft class is weird. I just don't see a franchise QB. Blaine Gabbert is the top prospect (according to Mel Kiper and most others) and I wouldn't take him with a guy like Patrick Peterson still on the board.
This pick will essentially determine Harbaugh's fate. He won't take Gabbert simply because the scouts told him too. He's too smart. Taking a franchise quarterback is no menial task. Gabbert has the size and arm strength, but does he have the work ethic and leadership skills? As Jay Cutler just proved, you need both to be successful.
I don't like Gabbert for this pick, despite what most folks say. I'm sort of leaning towards Jake Locker if the Niners do select a quarterback, but I'll wait and see how Locker plays in the Senior Bowl before I say that for sure. For now I'll pencil in Patrick Peterson, the best player left on the board, who would fill an immediate need for San Francisco and shore up a shaky secondary.
Trading the #7 pick is always an option too, since the team at #8 - Tennessee - might be looking for a quarterback, and some Gabbert-loving coach might want to jump up. If San Fran isn't enamored with Gabbert but does prefer Locker, they might be willing to trade backwards, to say pick 10 or 12, and swap with the Redskins or Vikings.
Tennessee, like Arizona and San Fran, will be in the market for either McNabb or Kolb. Obviously they're done with Vince Young, and Kerry Collins is 38 years old. If Jeff Fisher wants to stay employed, he needs to find a quarterback. They seem like a potential home for Blaine Gabbert, as they've shown a weakness for dummies in the past. They've got dire needs defensively, especially at DE and MLB, but my hunch is they'll begin the rebuilding process officially and take Blaine Gabbert, thus screwing Chris Johnson's fantasy owners and making Arian Foster the unanimous #1 overall pick next August (unless you're smart and you take Jamaal Charles instead ... more on that in 6 months or so).
So let's add
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
5. Arizona - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
6. Cleveland - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
7. San Francisco - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
8. Tennessee - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
And on to Dallas and the #9 pick. My guess is that the top two players on Dallas's draft board are Peterson and Amukamara, with Bowers and Fairley shortly behind. They NEED to fix that anemic secondary and get rid of Mike Jenkins ASAP. (If you don't believe me, watch this.) They'll probably try to trade up, but no guarantee that'll happen. In this situation, they'll be stuck deciding between a cornerback and a defensive lineman. Better prospects are available at DE and DT, but CB is a greater need. They also need 2 safeties and at least 2 offensive lineman, but they'll look at those positions in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
For this pick, my guess is Jerry Jones drafts the best player available, rather than reaching for a CB and taking a guy like Brandon Harris or Aaron Williams. Those guys will be available in the 2nd round. If not, guys just like them will. Unless some CB jumps out at the Combine with an obscene 40 time, I think they'll do the smart thing and shore up their defensive line.
In the 3-4, they are set with Ratliff at the NT and Stephen Bowen at LE. DeMarcus Ware is obviously their pass rushing specialist. What they need is a right end in the 3-4 who can stop the run. Typically 3-4 DEs are just smaller, faster 4-3 DTs. A perfect fit might be California's Cameron Jordan, a 6'4" 285 pound senior with a great all-around game, especially for a 3-4 defense. What he lacks in pass rush he makes up for with great tackling and strength that commands a double team. Because of Jordan's propensity to play DE in a 3-4, and with the number of teams switching to a 3-4, it's pretty commonly expected that he'll go in the top 15. I've got Dallas taking him here at #9.
Speaking of teams switching to the 3-4, here are two quick thoughts:
A) Even more defensive coordinators will think about making the switch after a Packers-Steelers Super Bowl, watching the dominance of Clay Matthews and James Harrison,
B) The Lions will not make such a move anytime soon, because Suh is the prototypically perfect DT for a 4-3 scheme, and they'll cater to him in every possible way.
After Dallas, Mike Shanahan is on the clock with Detroit just 3 picks away. Of course in real life there will be at least two or three trades by this point, and the whole draft will be upside-down, and some guy I've never heard of will be taken in the top 5. But let's just assume Washington is on the clock.
Most mockers have them taking a quarterback at #10. Gabbert makes sense for the system, Locker makes sense because Shanahan values intangibles, and Newton makes sense because Daniel Snyder is an unpredictable moron who loves the spotlight and Newton will be the Tebow of 2011.
But my gut feeling is that Mike Shanahan is just a little bit crazy and egomaniacal, and he thinks he is awesome enough to win with Rex Grossman and John Beck. As I've said, I think they'll win 3 or less games and take Andrew Luck in 2012 with the #1 pick. I'm not backing down from that prediction until Shanahan does at least one sensible thing. It will be hugely important to see what kind of value they can get for McNabb and Haynesworth. Both will be gone, and if they don't provide any return on investment it will be a crushing blow to Washington's future.
As bad as their quarterback situation is, the defense in Washington ranked much worse than the offense. (31st vs. 18th). They couldn't stop anybody in any way, and that was despite having legitimate studs in Orakpo, Fletcher and Landry plus pretty good cover corners in Rogers and Hall. They desperately need a free safety and could use 2 new inside linebackers in the 3-4, but outside linebacker is their biggest concern on defense, as Andre Carter completely failed to switch from a 4-3 DE to a 3-4 OLB. One of Shanahan's many unnoticed failures.
Of course, they also need to figure out the QB, RB, WR positions, plus at least 3 offensive linemen. But most likely they'll take an OLB with this pick, and I'm afraid they'll probably take Von Miller from Texas A&M, although we might get lucky if they select Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue instead.
I've always suspected Shanahan of being a little bit of a racist, so hopefully they'll take Kerrigan instead of Miller. As a Lions' fan, I'd much rather have Miller. But they're close. Kiper's Big Board has Miller at #9 and Kerrigan at #10. Let's hope Washington takes the white guy.
This brings up the Houston Texans at pick 11, who unfortunately have nearly the same needs as Detroit - secondary and outside linebacker. If Washington doesn't take Miller, Houston might. It will be tougher than I initially thought for him to fall to Detroit. I hope Lions' management loves him as much as I do so they'll trade up a few spots and grab him. I really think he has James Harrison potential.
But anyhow, our best chance of getting him would be if Houston elects to fix their defensive line, rather than the pass rush. A pressing need for them is nosetackle, but no prospect really stands out at the #11 pick. (Houston will be switching to a 3-4 as Wade Phillips takes over as defensive coordinator). They might wait til later rounds, or they might reach for Stephen Paea or Jared Crick, but neither is big enough to play a pure NT position. Maybe they'll move Amobi Okoye to NT. No idea. But I know that you can't run a successful 3-4 defense without a solid nosetackle.
It's probably wishful thinking. The smart choice for Houston is to take Von Miller and employ him as a pass-rushing OLB in the 3-4. Now the only question is whether to leave Mario Williams at DE, thus limiting his effectiveness. I really don't think Phillips will prove to be a good hire, simply because of the mismatch of Mario in the 3-4. Just like Peppers didn't want to play a 3-4. Freakishly athletic DEs belong in the 4-3 defense.
Bah. I'll give Miller to the Texans.
Next up, the Minnesota Vikings. I'll keep this one simple. I think they'll take Jake Locker. New coach Leslie Frazier basically revealed his plans to take a franchise quarterback a month ago, and Locker will be the best QB available by a mile, even if Gabbert is on the board. With all the talent in Minnesota - especially Adrian Peterson - they need a semi-competent quarterback who can jump right into a pro-style offense. Locker won't be asked to do too much, and should be considered an early favorite for offensive ROY. Assuming of course that he ends up in Minnesota.
And before Detroit takes the clock, let's recap the first 12 picks:
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
5. Arizona - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
6. Cleveland - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
7. San Francisco - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
8. Tennessee - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
9. Dallas - Cameron Jordan, DE, California
10. Washington - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
11. Houston - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
12. Minnesota - Jake Locker, QB, Washington
You may notice that's 9 defensive players, 1 receiver, and 2 quarterbacks. No offensive linemen, no running backs, no safeties. Seems unrealistic, considering last year's top 15 featured two safeties, three offensive linemen, and two running backs. But this year it's a different breed of talent. There are simply no Russell Okungs or Eric Berrys in this draft class. I feel pretty safe putting 5 pass rushers in the top 12.
This is highly unfortunate, as Detroit's two biggest areas of need are outside linebacker and cornerback. Offensive line is a close third, followed by safety, and then everything else is just a luxury.
As I've mentioned before, Detroit's new management really likes to address their needs via free agency, so they are able to select the best player available in the draft. Suh, Best, Pettigrew, and Delmas are all examples of this. We obviously needed a CB more than an RB last year, but by acquiring Chris Houston and Nathan Vasher we thought we had the position somewhat covered.
I don't hate their strategy, because obviously you need great players to build a great team. Suh and Calvin are great. Delmas and Pettigrew are solid. Best is good, and Levy is decent.
But the problem comes when the needs you meet in free agency are guys like Chris Houston and Nathan Vasher. In other words, poop on a platter. VandenBosch and Burleson were good pickups, but it'll be hard to replicate that level of talent again this offseason. Nnamdi Asomugha is the pipe dream, but 30 other teams want him too. As much as Lewand and Mayhew probably want to spend the #13 pick on a total stud like DE Aldon Smith or WR Julio Jones, it would be smarter for them to focus on a position of need - in other words, a CB or OLB.
Our defensive line isn't perfect, and taking a DE wouldn't shock me. VandenBosch is getting old. But I like Avril and McBride a decent amount, and would be much happier with an OLB. Like I've said for a couple weeks, Von Miller is sort of my dream at this pick. Well, the ultimate dream would be Peterson or Amukamara, but that's going to require trading up, and Detroit might not be aggressive or smart enough to pull that off. Chances of either CB falling to pick 13 are less than 5%.
So let's look at some possible options for Detroit, assuming my top 12 goes as predicted:
Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA - At 6'4" and 250, Ayers has the size to play strong in run support, but pass coverage is his greatest strength. He's an average pass rusher, but his athleticism and speed set him apart. He can run all over the field, and is compared to a Keith Rivers or Derrick Johnson.
Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri - Recovering from a broken fibula, Smith played only nine games in 2010 but was still voted All Big 12. He's bigger than Ayers (6'5, 260) and officially listed as a DE, but could probably play OLB in a 4-3. He's primarily a pass rusher, and also strong against the run. Coverage would be his weakness. If drafted by Detroit, he would replace Julian Peterson as the blitzing linebacker.
Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia - Played rush linebacker in the 3-4 at Georgia, and was second in the SEC in tackles for loss (behind only Fairely). Could he be taught to play DE or OLB in the 4-3? Maybe, but it's always a risky transition. His talent is definitely there, but most likely a 3-4 defense will want him more.
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa - A prototypical 4-3 defensive end, which isn't a huge need for Detroit. But we love Big Ten players, and Clayborn is a 285 pound beast with speed. He could play 20-30 snaps a game in place of VandenBosch.
J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin - Similar to Clayborn, but bigger and slower. Almost a clone of VandeBosch physically, but obviously not the same player.
Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State - Elbow surgery might knock him out of the top 20, but he's another Big Ten defensive end with a great mix of strength and speed.
Brandon Harris, CB, Miami - Considered the #3 corner on the board, he's much smaller than Peterson or Amukamara, but faster. Great in man-to-man, but struggles in zone. A good tackler, but not great. If Detroit drafts him, he'll be immediately relied upon as a #1 CB, and that could spell trouble. He'll give up 6 inches to beasts like Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson next year. But no other CB makes sense in the first round. They could wait until the second round and there's a whole slew of choices.
So those are the primary defensive options. OLBs, DEs, and maybe a CB. Levy owns the MLB spot, and Suh and Williams should occupy the DTs spots. The only possibility would be if Marcell Dareus or Cameron Jordan falls to #13, and Detroit considers them at DT and moves Corey Williams to the bench. I wouldn't be opposed to that.
But of the above guys, I'd say Akers and Smith are the most likely, with Harris being the sleeper. I'm still holding out hope for Von Miller. But of course, these are all just defensive options. There's still the offensive line.
We know Detroit is set at QB, RB, WR and TE. They might draft a power running back or a third receiver in later rounds, but not on day one. But offensive line is an option, particularly if the players who are high on their draft board are all gone. Schwartz is a notoriously secretive coach, so we'll have no idea whether he's crushing on Miller, Akers, or maybe even Watt or Clayborn. He'll probably try to drop some fake hints. We won't know until draft day; all we can do is speculate and hope he doesn't fall in love with some fluky tape and draft a dud. This pick is vital to the rebuilding process. Super Bowl teams simply don't mess up first round picks.
If none of the DE or OLB options that Schwartz loves are available, offensive line becomes an option. But where? Left tackle? Right tackle? Who could we realistically move?
If you've followed Schwartz's press conferences, you know that he's morbidly obsessed with Jeff Backus, and considers him a Pro Bowler. Hopefully it's all just posturing and pleasantries. If he really feels the way about Backus that he says he does, there's no hope. Backus is mediocore, sometimes terrible, and getting older and slower. He has some good plays, even great plays, but he lacks consistency, and consistency is everything on the offensive line.
Still, Backus is better than Cherilus, and maybe better than Raiola at this point. The guards - Sims and Peterman - are both good enough. Neither should be replaced. Sims excels in pass protection, while Peterman is one of the best pulling guards in the running game. They complement each other well. Along with Raiola, the interior 3 of our line should remain intact.
But I expect the tackle positions to be changed this year, especially in light of Stafford's fragility. If no defensive players tickle Schwartz's fancy with the #13 pick, an OT will be taken, and could start on either the right or left side.
Weirdly, there are six OTs who are considered fringe 1st rounders:
Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin - 6'7", 315, very quick feet, amazing size, but doesn't have the best technique. Ends up on the ground often on running plays. But overall, might have the highest ceiling. He replaced Joe Thomas for the Badgers and consequently gets compared to him regularly.
Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State - 6'6", 312, dominated Michigan in the bowl game, better run blocker than Carimi, but not as strong in pass protection.
Tyron Smith, USC - 6'5", 285, probably better suited as a right tackle until he puts on 20-30 pounds, but extremely quick and a great run blocker.
Nate Solder, Colorado - 6'8", 314, the fastest 40 time in the bunch, first-team All American, superb in pass protection, quick feet but hand technique needs improvement.
Anthony Costanzo, Boston College - 6'7", 305, phenomenal speed (a former tight end), but not as strong as the others in this bunch. A great run blocker and amazing in the screen passing game.
DeMarcus Love, Arkansas - 6'5", 318, first-team All SEC, possibly more of a guard in the NFL because of his size and strength but lack of speed. Can be beaten around the corner, but is never overpowered.
Of these, I can only imagine Detroit selecting either Solder or Carimi in the first round. If any of them are available with pick #44, that will be a great option, but I expect a run on offensive linemen from picks 20-30 with Indy, Philly and Chicago.
However, I'm fairly convinced that Detroit's obsession with taking local players in the second round will lead them to take Michigan State's Greg Jones with that pick. Let's hope not. No offense to Jones, he's great, but I'm sick of that crap. How did Curt Aines work out? Or Stanton? Heck, Delmas could have easily been Pat Chung or Jairus Byrd, both superior safeties. Stop picking players from within the state!! It's so lame.
So anyhow, in this current mock draft, I'll give the Lions Akeem Ayers from UCLA, with Carimi & Solder closely behind, and DE Aldon Smith in the mix. But I'm still really hoping they'll get either Von Miller or Amukamara.
Next pick belongs to St. Louis, but I don't really care anymore. Plus, this pick is easy. Unless the Rams trade up to take A.J. Green, they'll spend this pick on wide receiver Julio Jones from Alabama. Sam Bradford needs a #1 option, and despite getting Mark Clayton back from injury, I don't think that's the answer. I know Spagnuolo is a defensive-minded coach, but they won't leave their franchise QB without an elite weapon. Jones could be a Brandon Marshall-like player with his amazing run-after-catch ability and superior route running. I highly doubt the Rams will let him sneak past.
Then there's Miami. Tony Sparano narrowly escapred firing when Jim Harbaugh turned down Miami's lucrative offer, and now owner Stephen Ross will look to make a splash elsewhere. That's why a lot of mockers think they'll take Heismann winner Cam Newton. But with Bill Parcells still employed as an "advisor," I can't imagine them making such a stupid move. Instead I think they're a leading candidate to acquire either Kolb or Orton. They aren't dumb enough to want McNabb or Young. And let's not completely give up on Chad Henne yet, shall we?
Miami actually needs a RB more than a QB, as both Ricky and Ronnie should be gone this offseason. Mark Ingram is still on the board, and they'll consider him. They'll also look at the surplus of defensive talent, including players like Aldon Smith and J.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward. I'll give the pick to the best player left, in my opinion, and that's Aldon Smith.
Next, at pick #16, is the Jaguars. Last year they signed Aaron Kampman in an effort to slow down Peyton Manning. Their focus has always been trying to stop Peyton. This year, it continues. They'll take the best pass rusher available, as Kampman tore his ACL yet again and plenty of good 3-4 OLBs remain on the board. The best fit is Justin Houston from Georgia.
Here's a recap of the top 16:
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
5. Arizona - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
6. Cleveland - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
7. San Francisco - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
8. Tennessee - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
9. Dallas - Cameron Jordan, DE, California
10. Washington - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
11. Houston - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
12. Minnesota - Jake Locker, QB, Washington
13. DETROIT - AKEEM AYERS, OLB, UCLA
14. St. Louis - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
15. Miami - Aldon Smith, DE, California
16. Jacksonville - Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
Much more to come later. Let's just say that the next pick, New England (via Oakland) at #17, will almost certainly be traded. Bill Belichick trades draft picks like a conquistador trades smallpox-infested blankets. The only question is whether he'll trade backwards, as he usually does, or package some picks and move way up. This year the Pats have six picks in the first three rounds, so he could offer say the 17th, 33rd and 74th pick to move up to #2 and take Bowers. Or something to that effect. But for now ... my first sixteen picks are mocked, and I hope you enjoyed this process as much as I did.
However, thanks to WalterFootball.com I found this site, which contains links to over 200 Mock Drafts. Needless to say, mocking the draft is one of the greatest obsessions in sports. It's more fun than the actual draft itself. This year I'm getting increasingly involved.
There are so many fascinating factors: Lucks's decision to stay at Stanford, the looming CBA, seven new head coaches, and the surplus of talent at some positions (DE, DT, QB) and complete void at others (RB, OG, S).
It all starts with the Carolina Panthers, who have been on the clock since late December. They lost their guy when Andrew Luck decided to become an architect, and now new coach Ron Rivera has a difficult decision to make. Of the last twelve #1 picks, at least five have been completely worthless. One was good but then went to prison. One has been consistently mediocre. Two have been phenomenal. The other three are Stafford (jury's out), Eli (good but not amazing), and Bradford (stud in the making).
For reference - the five worthless picks are: Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, David Carr, JaMarcus Russell, and Alex Smith. (Four quarterbacks.) The mediocre guy was Carson Palmer, and the phenomenal picks were Mario Williams and Jake Long. You probably know which guy went to prison.
One thing is for sure: Carolina won't be able to trade their way out of this pick. There is no clear franchise QB and no clear #1 pick, so they're stuck at the top, just like the Lions were in 2009. That year, we debated between Aaron Curry, Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, and Andre Smith, but ultimately settled on Stafford.
Carolina won't make the same mistake. They'll give Claussen another chance, knowing that if he fails completely they can fall back on Matt Moore, or a free agent to be signed later. A lot of mock drafts I've seen have Carolina taking a quarterback, but that simply won't be the case. They have far more pressing needs.
The Panthers need major help on the offensive line, especially at right guard, but there are no guard prospects even close to the being worthy of the #1 pick. They also desperately need a receiver, but that's not going to happen either despite A.J. Green being a Calvin-like talent. The pick is going to be defense.
Why? Well, first and foremost because Ron Rivera is a former defensive coordinator who learned the coaching ropes from Buddy Ryan and Lovie Smith. Secondly, because taking a receiver #1 overall without a quarterback is foolish. Even Matt Millen wouldn't be that stupid. And thirdly, because of Nick Fairley.
Fairley, the 6'5" 300 pound defensive tackle from Auburn, pretty much took over the #1 pick during the national "championship" game, in which he sort of dominated Oregon with 3 tackles for loss and a forced fumble. Fans saw the immediate impact that Ndamukong Suh had for Detroit, and think Fairely could have a similar impact.
If Carolina wants to take him, and I think they will, that's fine with me. Just know this: Fairely isn't half the player Suh is. I think they should pick defensive end DaQuan Bowers, but my guess is they will take Fairley.
And that would bring up the Denver Broncos, who will almost certainly take the remainder between Fairley and Bowers. They had the fewest sacks in the NFL last year, and although they'll get Elvis Dumervil back, they still need to address the front 7. New coach John Fox will almost certainly (call it 99.5%) switch the defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3, which means Dumervil either becomes a true OLB or moves to DE. More likely, they keep him at OLB and draft Bowers to play DE.
Denver could also look at A.J. Green, but with the development of Brandon Lloyd that's highly unlikely. The other possibility is a cornerback, as it appears Champ Bailey wants out, and the prospect of either Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara will be tempting. But Fox drafted Julius Peppers in his first year in Carolina, and Bowers is a similar player whom he won't be able to pass up.
So,
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
unless Carolina takes Bowers first, in which case I don't know if Denver will take Fairley, or instead go with a CB. Probably Fairley.
The third pick belongs to Buffalo, who holds a great position in the draft. They have needs all over the place (DE, DT, WR among them) and should take the best player available, which in this scenario is A.J. Green.
Buffalo needs a left tackle, but won't take one with the #3 pick. A smart move would be to trade backwards and take a guy like Solder or Carimi, but that means they have to find someone interested in the #3 pick. If Fairley and Bowers are gone, that would mean someone interested in Green or Peterson, or maybe a team wants to jump ahead of Arizona at #5 and pick a QB, but that will depend on whether Arizona needs a QB, or if they get one in free agency. It wouldn't shock me at all if Buffalo trades backwards to someone who wants Green, believing him to be the next Calvin or Fitzgerald. Such a team might be St. Louis (#14) or Jacksonville (#16) or even San Diego (#18), who will probably lose Vincent Jackson. A.J. Green is considered the best overall prospect in this draft, and Buffalo would be wise to trade backwards and see if they can get a 1st, 2nd and a 4th. They have too many needs to pass up an offer like that.
But it's hard to 'mock' any trades, so I'll just tenatively say that Buffalo takes A.J. Green, and hopes to get their QB next year.
Cincinnati picks next, and has already made two major mistakes by retaining Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer. I'm not normally a huge advocate of firing coaches, but Lewis really deserved it. His team didn't even try in more than half of their games. Palmer was hideous in 13 of the 16 games. They are doomed from the start.
Most mock drafts have Cincinnati taking A.J. Green, assuming T.Ocho will be gone, and Buffalo will take a defensive player. I think that if Buffalo doesn't take Green it's because they traded backwards so someone else could take Green. A player that good probably won't slip to #4.
In either event, Cincinnati shouldn't pick Green. They need to fix their pass rush, which had the second-fewest sacks next to Denver. To me, the smartest pick would be UNC's stud defensive end Robert Quinn, who I think is the most underrated prospect in this draft. He's being overlooked because of Bowers.
Peterson and Amukamara are not options for Cincinnati, because they're stacked at cornerback. But trading down might work, if they can find a team willing to give them a 1st and 2nd pick for this pick and a 3rd. Detroit might be such a team. Or Dallas, or Houston. With teams #7, #9, #11, and #13 all needing help in the secondary, trades might happen in the #4 to #6 range. A lot will depend on the Combine, and if Peterson or Amukamara emerges as a must-have stud.
I'll stick with the Robert Quinn pick for Cincy. So, my top four looks like this:
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
And that brings up Arizona, quite possibly the team with the most flaws from top to bottom. They have Larry Fitzgerald, and that's about it. Left guard Alan Faneca is expected to retire, and the offensive line was a sieve in the first place. They have no pass rush, no secondary, and no running game, not to mention to quarterback. If there's one certainty, it's that they won't pick A.J. Green if he freakishly falls past Cincinnati.
Taking a quarterback is one option, but as I've said before I think Arizona wins the Donovan McNabb Sweepstakes, which is ironic because McNabb isn't actually any good. If not McNabb, they might get Vince Young, Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, or even an old guy like Billy Volek or Jake Delhomme. It seems like Todd Haley's style to stick with his guys and not draft a QB. Especially with two young QBs - Hall and Skelton - who both have potential. Maybe not talent, but at least potential.
The reason they probably won't take a quarterback is that there isn't a clear choice. Most mock drafts have Missouri's Blaine Gabbert going first among QBs, but that baffles me. He's just the next in the line of big-armed, small-brained dolts. He's only the top ranked QB because Luck stayed in school, Mallet is terribly unintelligent, and Locker had a lot of interceptions against a tough schedule. I wouldn't pick Gabbert at all; do you really want to pin your franchise's future to a guy who's most famous highlight is getting destroyed by Ndamukong Suh?
Instead, Arizona should bolster their front 7 with Marcell Dareus, the DT/DE hybrid from Alabama. The Cardinals were 30th against the run this year, and need someone next to Darnell Dockett. Dareus would be a great pick. Now, if only they could get him to play left tackle as well, and running back, and linebacker...
Cleveland, at pick #6, doesn't have any pressing needs, but has moderate needs in the front 7 and at right tackle. Their biggest need is a receiver, but unless A.J. Green magically falls to them, they won't reach for Julio Jones. (Maybe they would trade with Buffalo to take Green ahead of the Bengals?) They also need a cornerback to replace Eric Wright, and an inside linebacker for their 3-4 defense.
With Dareus and Quinn gone, I expect Cleveland to take whichever cornerback they like between Peterson and Amukamara. My guess would be Amukamara, because one of Peterson's biggest strengths is kick-returning, and the Browns already have Josh Cribbs. So the top 6 looks like this:
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
5. Arizona - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
6. Cleveland - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Picking seventh is the 49ers, and that's where a lot of people expect the first quarterback to be taken. Again, I keep repeating this, but it will all depend on where McNabb and Vince Young and Kolb end up. The new rumor is that Carson Palmer wants a trade. I can't imagaine him going anywhere except Seattle (Pete Carroll, USC, reunited with Reggie Bush and Mike Williams, that's too easy).
But San Fran makes the most sense to draft a quarterback because
A) They desperately need one. Alex Smith and Troy Smith are both worthless, and are both likely leaving,
B) New coach Jim Harbaugh wants to start rebuilding with 'his own guy,' not some been-around-the-block scrub like McNabb.
If this were a different year, I'd say quarterback makes loads of sense for the 49ers. But this draft class is weird. I just don't see a franchise QB. Blaine Gabbert is the top prospect (according to Mel Kiper and most others) and I wouldn't take him with a guy like Patrick Peterson still on the board.
This pick will essentially determine Harbaugh's fate. He won't take Gabbert simply because the scouts told him too. He's too smart. Taking a franchise quarterback is no menial task. Gabbert has the size and arm strength, but does he have the work ethic and leadership skills? As Jay Cutler just proved, you need both to be successful.
I don't like Gabbert for this pick, despite what most folks say. I'm sort of leaning towards Jake Locker if the Niners do select a quarterback, but I'll wait and see how Locker plays in the Senior Bowl before I say that for sure. For now I'll pencil in Patrick Peterson, the best player left on the board, who would fill an immediate need for San Francisco and shore up a shaky secondary.
Trading the #7 pick is always an option too, since the team at #8 - Tennessee - might be looking for a quarterback, and some Gabbert-loving coach might want to jump up. If San Fran isn't enamored with Gabbert but does prefer Locker, they might be willing to trade backwards, to say pick 10 or 12, and swap with the Redskins or Vikings.
Tennessee, like Arizona and San Fran, will be in the market for either McNabb or Kolb. Obviously they're done with Vince Young, and Kerry Collins is 38 years old. If Jeff Fisher wants to stay employed, he needs to find a quarterback. They seem like a potential home for Blaine Gabbert, as they've shown a weakness for dummies in the past. They've got dire needs defensively, especially at DE and MLB, but my hunch is they'll begin the rebuilding process officially and take Blaine Gabbert, thus screwing Chris Johnson's fantasy owners and making Arian Foster the unanimous #1 overall pick next August (unless you're smart and you take Jamaal Charles instead ... more on that in 6 months or so).
So let's add
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
5. Arizona - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
6. Cleveland - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
7. San Francisco - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
8. Tennessee - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
And on to Dallas and the #9 pick. My guess is that the top two players on Dallas's draft board are Peterson and Amukamara, with Bowers and Fairley shortly behind. They NEED to fix that anemic secondary and get rid of Mike Jenkins ASAP. (If you don't believe me, watch this.) They'll probably try to trade up, but no guarantee that'll happen. In this situation, they'll be stuck deciding between a cornerback and a defensive lineman. Better prospects are available at DE and DT, but CB is a greater need. They also need 2 safeties and at least 2 offensive lineman, but they'll look at those positions in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
For this pick, my guess is Jerry Jones drafts the best player available, rather than reaching for a CB and taking a guy like Brandon Harris or Aaron Williams. Those guys will be available in the 2nd round. If not, guys just like them will. Unless some CB jumps out at the Combine with an obscene 40 time, I think they'll do the smart thing and shore up their defensive line.
In the 3-4, they are set with Ratliff at the NT and Stephen Bowen at LE. DeMarcus Ware is obviously their pass rushing specialist. What they need is a right end in the 3-4 who can stop the run. Typically 3-4 DEs are just smaller, faster 4-3 DTs. A perfect fit might be California's Cameron Jordan, a 6'4" 285 pound senior with a great all-around game, especially for a 3-4 defense. What he lacks in pass rush he makes up for with great tackling and strength that commands a double team. Because of Jordan's propensity to play DE in a 3-4, and with the number of teams switching to a 3-4, it's pretty commonly expected that he'll go in the top 15. I've got Dallas taking him here at #9.
Speaking of teams switching to the 3-4, here are two quick thoughts:
A) Even more defensive coordinators will think about making the switch after a Packers-Steelers Super Bowl, watching the dominance of Clay Matthews and James Harrison,
B) The Lions will not make such a move anytime soon, because Suh is the prototypically perfect DT for a 4-3 scheme, and they'll cater to him in every possible way.
After Dallas, Mike Shanahan is on the clock with Detroit just 3 picks away. Of course in real life there will be at least two or three trades by this point, and the whole draft will be upside-down, and some guy I've never heard of will be taken in the top 5. But let's just assume Washington is on the clock.
Most mockers have them taking a quarterback at #10. Gabbert makes sense for the system, Locker makes sense because Shanahan values intangibles, and Newton makes sense because Daniel Snyder is an unpredictable moron who loves the spotlight and Newton will be the Tebow of 2011.
But my gut feeling is that Mike Shanahan is just a little bit crazy and egomaniacal, and he thinks he is awesome enough to win with Rex Grossman and John Beck. As I've said, I think they'll win 3 or less games and take Andrew Luck in 2012 with the #1 pick. I'm not backing down from that prediction until Shanahan does at least one sensible thing. It will be hugely important to see what kind of value they can get for McNabb and Haynesworth. Both will be gone, and if they don't provide any return on investment it will be a crushing blow to Washington's future.
As bad as their quarterback situation is, the defense in Washington ranked much worse than the offense. (31st vs. 18th). They couldn't stop anybody in any way, and that was despite having legitimate studs in Orakpo, Fletcher and Landry plus pretty good cover corners in Rogers and Hall. They desperately need a free safety and could use 2 new inside linebackers in the 3-4, but outside linebacker is their biggest concern on defense, as Andre Carter completely failed to switch from a 4-3 DE to a 3-4 OLB. One of Shanahan's many unnoticed failures.
Of course, they also need to figure out the QB, RB, WR positions, plus at least 3 offensive linemen. But most likely they'll take an OLB with this pick, and I'm afraid they'll probably take Von Miller from Texas A&M, although we might get lucky if they select Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue instead.
I've always suspected Shanahan of being a little bit of a racist, so hopefully they'll take Kerrigan instead of Miller. As a Lions' fan, I'd much rather have Miller. But they're close. Kiper's Big Board has Miller at #9 and Kerrigan at #10. Let's hope Washington takes the white guy.
This brings up the Houston Texans at pick 11, who unfortunately have nearly the same needs as Detroit - secondary and outside linebacker. If Washington doesn't take Miller, Houston might. It will be tougher than I initially thought for him to fall to Detroit. I hope Lions' management loves him as much as I do so they'll trade up a few spots and grab him. I really think he has James Harrison potential.
But anyhow, our best chance of getting him would be if Houston elects to fix their defensive line, rather than the pass rush. A pressing need for them is nosetackle, but no prospect really stands out at the #11 pick. (Houston will be switching to a 3-4 as Wade Phillips takes over as defensive coordinator). They might wait til later rounds, or they might reach for Stephen Paea or Jared Crick, but neither is big enough to play a pure NT position. Maybe they'll move Amobi Okoye to NT. No idea. But I know that you can't run a successful 3-4 defense without a solid nosetackle.
It's probably wishful thinking. The smart choice for Houston is to take Von Miller and employ him as a pass-rushing OLB in the 3-4. Now the only question is whether to leave Mario Williams at DE, thus limiting his effectiveness. I really don't think Phillips will prove to be a good hire, simply because of the mismatch of Mario in the 3-4. Just like Peppers didn't want to play a 3-4. Freakishly athletic DEs belong in the 4-3 defense.
Bah. I'll give Miller to the Texans.
Next up, the Minnesota Vikings. I'll keep this one simple. I think they'll take Jake Locker. New coach Leslie Frazier basically revealed his plans to take a franchise quarterback a month ago, and Locker will be the best QB available by a mile, even if Gabbert is on the board. With all the talent in Minnesota - especially Adrian Peterson - they need a semi-competent quarterback who can jump right into a pro-style offense. Locker won't be asked to do too much, and should be considered an early favorite for offensive ROY. Assuming of course that he ends up in Minnesota.
And before Detroit takes the clock, let's recap the first 12 picks:
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
5. Arizona - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
6. Cleveland - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
7. San Francisco - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
8. Tennessee - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
9. Dallas - Cameron Jordan, DE, California
10. Washington - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
11. Houston - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
12. Minnesota - Jake Locker, QB, Washington
You may notice that's 9 defensive players, 1 receiver, and 2 quarterbacks. No offensive linemen, no running backs, no safeties. Seems unrealistic, considering last year's top 15 featured two safeties, three offensive linemen, and two running backs. But this year it's a different breed of talent. There are simply no Russell Okungs or Eric Berrys in this draft class. I feel pretty safe putting 5 pass rushers in the top 12.
This is highly unfortunate, as Detroit's two biggest areas of need are outside linebacker and cornerback. Offensive line is a close third, followed by safety, and then everything else is just a luxury.
As I've mentioned before, Detroit's new management really likes to address their needs via free agency, so they are able to select the best player available in the draft. Suh, Best, Pettigrew, and Delmas are all examples of this. We obviously needed a CB more than an RB last year, but by acquiring Chris Houston and Nathan Vasher we thought we had the position somewhat covered.
I don't hate their strategy, because obviously you need great players to build a great team. Suh and Calvin are great. Delmas and Pettigrew are solid. Best is good, and Levy is decent.
But the problem comes when the needs you meet in free agency are guys like Chris Houston and Nathan Vasher. In other words, poop on a platter. VandenBosch and Burleson were good pickups, but it'll be hard to replicate that level of talent again this offseason. Nnamdi Asomugha is the pipe dream, but 30 other teams want him too. As much as Lewand and Mayhew probably want to spend the #13 pick on a total stud like DE Aldon Smith or WR Julio Jones, it would be smarter for them to focus on a position of need - in other words, a CB or OLB.
Our defensive line isn't perfect, and taking a DE wouldn't shock me. VandenBosch is getting old. But I like Avril and McBride a decent amount, and would be much happier with an OLB. Like I've said for a couple weeks, Von Miller is sort of my dream at this pick. Well, the ultimate dream would be Peterson or Amukamara, but that's going to require trading up, and Detroit might not be aggressive or smart enough to pull that off. Chances of either CB falling to pick 13 are less than 5%.
So let's look at some possible options for Detroit, assuming my top 12 goes as predicted:
Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA - At 6'4" and 250, Ayers has the size to play strong in run support, but pass coverage is his greatest strength. He's an average pass rusher, but his athleticism and speed set him apart. He can run all over the field, and is compared to a Keith Rivers or Derrick Johnson.
Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri - Recovering from a broken fibula, Smith played only nine games in 2010 but was still voted All Big 12. He's bigger than Ayers (6'5, 260) and officially listed as a DE, but could probably play OLB in a 4-3. He's primarily a pass rusher, and also strong against the run. Coverage would be his weakness. If drafted by Detroit, he would replace Julian Peterson as the blitzing linebacker.
Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia - Played rush linebacker in the 3-4 at Georgia, and was second in the SEC in tackles for loss (behind only Fairely). Could he be taught to play DE or OLB in the 4-3? Maybe, but it's always a risky transition. His talent is definitely there, but most likely a 3-4 defense will want him more.
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa - A prototypical 4-3 defensive end, which isn't a huge need for Detroit. But we love Big Ten players, and Clayborn is a 285 pound beast with speed. He could play 20-30 snaps a game in place of VandenBosch.
J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin - Similar to Clayborn, but bigger and slower. Almost a clone of VandeBosch physically, but obviously not the same player.
Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State - Elbow surgery might knock him out of the top 20, but he's another Big Ten defensive end with a great mix of strength and speed.
Brandon Harris, CB, Miami - Considered the #3 corner on the board, he's much smaller than Peterson or Amukamara, but faster. Great in man-to-man, but struggles in zone. A good tackler, but not great. If Detroit drafts him, he'll be immediately relied upon as a #1 CB, and that could spell trouble. He'll give up 6 inches to beasts like Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson next year. But no other CB makes sense in the first round. They could wait until the second round and there's a whole slew of choices.
So those are the primary defensive options. OLBs, DEs, and maybe a CB. Levy owns the MLB spot, and Suh and Williams should occupy the DTs spots. The only possibility would be if Marcell Dareus or Cameron Jordan falls to #13, and Detroit considers them at DT and moves Corey Williams to the bench. I wouldn't be opposed to that.
But of the above guys, I'd say Akers and Smith are the most likely, with Harris being the sleeper. I'm still holding out hope for Von Miller. But of course, these are all just defensive options. There's still the offensive line.
We know Detroit is set at QB, RB, WR and TE. They might draft a power running back or a third receiver in later rounds, but not on day one. But offensive line is an option, particularly if the players who are high on their draft board are all gone. Schwartz is a notoriously secretive coach, so we'll have no idea whether he's crushing on Miller, Akers, or maybe even Watt or Clayborn. He'll probably try to drop some fake hints. We won't know until draft day; all we can do is speculate and hope he doesn't fall in love with some fluky tape and draft a dud. This pick is vital to the rebuilding process. Super Bowl teams simply don't mess up first round picks.
If none of the DE or OLB options that Schwartz loves are available, offensive line becomes an option. But where? Left tackle? Right tackle? Who could we realistically move?
If you've followed Schwartz's press conferences, you know that he's morbidly obsessed with Jeff Backus, and considers him a Pro Bowler. Hopefully it's all just posturing and pleasantries. If he really feels the way about Backus that he says he does, there's no hope. Backus is mediocore, sometimes terrible, and getting older and slower. He has some good plays, even great plays, but he lacks consistency, and consistency is everything on the offensive line.
Still, Backus is better than Cherilus, and maybe better than Raiola at this point. The guards - Sims and Peterman - are both good enough. Neither should be replaced. Sims excels in pass protection, while Peterman is one of the best pulling guards in the running game. They complement each other well. Along with Raiola, the interior 3 of our line should remain intact.
But I expect the tackle positions to be changed this year, especially in light of Stafford's fragility. If no defensive players tickle Schwartz's fancy with the #13 pick, an OT will be taken, and could start on either the right or left side.
Weirdly, there are six OTs who are considered fringe 1st rounders:
Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin - 6'7", 315, very quick feet, amazing size, but doesn't have the best technique. Ends up on the ground often on running plays. But overall, might have the highest ceiling. He replaced Joe Thomas for the Badgers and consequently gets compared to him regularly.
Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State - 6'6", 312, dominated Michigan in the bowl game, better run blocker than Carimi, but not as strong in pass protection.
Tyron Smith, USC - 6'5", 285, probably better suited as a right tackle until he puts on 20-30 pounds, but extremely quick and a great run blocker.
Nate Solder, Colorado - 6'8", 314, the fastest 40 time in the bunch, first-team All American, superb in pass protection, quick feet but hand technique needs improvement.
Anthony Costanzo, Boston College - 6'7", 305, phenomenal speed (a former tight end), but not as strong as the others in this bunch. A great run blocker and amazing in the screen passing game.
DeMarcus Love, Arkansas - 6'5", 318, first-team All SEC, possibly more of a guard in the NFL because of his size and strength but lack of speed. Can be beaten around the corner, but is never overpowered.
Of these, I can only imagine Detroit selecting either Solder or Carimi in the first round. If any of them are available with pick #44, that will be a great option, but I expect a run on offensive linemen from picks 20-30 with Indy, Philly and Chicago.
However, I'm fairly convinced that Detroit's obsession with taking local players in the second round will lead them to take Michigan State's Greg Jones with that pick. Let's hope not. No offense to Jones, he's great, but I'm sick of that crap. How did Curt Aines work out? Or Stanton? Heck, Delmas could have easily been Pat Chung or Jairus Byrd, both superior safeties. Stop picking players from within the state!! It's so lame.
So anyhow, in this current mock draft, I'll give the Lions Akeem Ayers from UCLA, with Carimi & Solder closely behind, and DE Aldon Smith in the mix. But I'm still really hoping they'll get either Von Miller or Amukamara.
Next pick belongs to St. Louis, but I don't really care anymore. Plus, this pick is easy. Unless the Rams trade up to take A.J. Green, they'll spend this pick on wide receiver Julio Jones from Alabama. Sam Bradford needs a #1 option, and despite getting Mark Clayton back from injury, I don't think that's the answer. I know Spagnuolo is a defensive-minded coach, but they won't leave their franchise QB without an elite weapon. Jones could be a Brandon Marshall-like player with his amazing run-after-catch ability and superior route running. I highly doubt the Rams will let him sneak past.
Then there's Miami. Tony Sparano narrowly escapred firing when Jim Harbaugh turned down Miami's lucrative offer, and now owner Stephen Ross will look to make a splash elsewhere. That's why a lot of mockers think they'll take Heismann winner Cam Newton. But with Bill Parcells still employed as an "advisor," I can't imagine them making such a stupid move. Instead I think they're a leading candidate to acquire either Kolb or Orton. They aren't dumb enough to want McNabb or Young. And let's not completely give up on Chad Henne yet, shall we?
Miami actually needs a RB more than a QB, as both Ricky and Ronnie should be gone this offseason. Mark Ingram is still on the board, and they'll consider him. They'll also look at the surplus of defensive talent, including players like Aldon Smith and J.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward. I'll give the pick to the best player left, in my opinion, and that's Aldon Smith.
Next, at pick #16, is the Jaguars. Last year they signed Aaron Kampman in an effort to slow down Peyton Manning. Their focus has always been trying to stop Peyton. This year, it continues. They'll take the best pass rusher available, as Kampman tore his ACL yet again and plenty of good 3-4 OLBs remain on the board. The best fit is Justin Houston from Georgia.
Here's a recap of the top 16:
1. Carolina - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2. Denver - DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
3. Buffalo - A.J. Green, WR, Georga
4. Cincinnati - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
5. Arizona - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
6. Cleveland - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
7. San Francisco - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
8. Tennessee - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
9. Dallas - Cameron Jordan, DE, California
10. Washington - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
11. Houston - Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
12. Minnesota - Jake Locker, QB, Washington
13. DETROIT - AKEEM AYERS, OLB, UCLA
14. St. Louis - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
15. Miami - Aldon Smith, DE, California
16. Jacksonville - Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
Much more to come later. Let's just say that the next pick, New England (via Oakland) at #17, will almost certainly be traded. Bill Belichick trades draft picks like a conquistador trades smallpox-infested blankets. The only question is whether he'll trade backwards, as he usually does, or package some picks and move way up. This year the Pats have six picks in the first three rounds, so he could offer say the 17th, 33rd and 74th pick to move up to #2 and take Bowers. Or something to that effect. But for now ... my first sixteen picks are mocked, and I hope you enjoyed this process as much as I did.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Good News/ Bad News
The good news is that I nailed both of my Championship Round picks, putting me at 6-4 for the playoffs.
The bad news is that freaking Pittsburgh won and now I have to deal with my wife's insufferable family for the next 2 weeks.
The good news is Jay Cutler was exposed as a spineless, vile cretin and Rex Ryan won't be seen or heard from for 6 months.
The bad news is ... freaking Pittsburgh won.
Now I have two weeks to prepare for the tumultuous Super Bowl, in which I must somehow root silently for the Packers without being suspected by my wife. Believe me, there is nothing more difficult than cheering for one team but pretending to cheer for the other team. On Sunday I had to pretend to cheer for the Steelers but as soon as my wife left the room I would triple in excitement and cheer for the Jets. It's really hard to do. On a critical third down in the fourth quarter, I accidentally whispered "Kill him!" as the Jets attempted to sack Roethlisberger (to no avail, of course) and my wife looked at me skeptically. I may have blown my cover.
I'm such an idiot. I probably have marriage problems looming.
Dang it.
Maybe I should just say "screw it" and cheer for Pittsburgh? I don't know. I'm torn. Anyway, at least the Bears lost.
The bad news is that freaking Pittsburgh won and now I have to deal with my wife's insufferable family for the next 2 weeks.
The good news is Jay Cutler was exposed as a spineless, vile cretin and Rex Ryan won't be seen or heard from for 6 months.
The bad news is ... freaking Pittsburgh won.
Now I have two weeks to prepare for the tumultuous Super Bowl, in which I must somehow root silently for the Packers without being suspected by my wife. Believe me, there is nothing more difficult than cheering for one team but pretending to cheer for the other team. On Sunday I had to pretend to cheer for the Steelers but as soon as my wife left the room I would triple in excitement and cheer for the Jets. It's really hard to do. On a critical third down in the fourth quarter, I accidentally whispered "Kill him!" as the Jets attempted to sack Roethlisberger (to no avail, of course) and my wife looked at me skeptically. I may have blown my cover.
I'm such an idiot. I probably have marriage problems looming.
Dang it.
Maybe I should just say "screw it" and cheer for Pittsburgh? I don't know. I'm torn. Anyway, at least the Bears lost.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Playoff Picks ... And NFL Draft Preview
I haven't been able to sleep much lately, thinking about three things:
1) How the heck did I miss all four playoffs picks last weekend?
2) Besides the Packers, who should I cheer for this weekend?
3) Is there any difference between being 'melodramatic' and simply being 'dramatic?' Why add the extra two syllables, unless you're talking about Carmelo Anthony and trying to be clever?
I have no answer for the third question. For the first question, the answer I've come up with is this: I got robbed. Plain and simple. My analysis was spot on, and I was betrayed by Tom Brady, who played his worst game in 2 months, and by Baltimore's defense falling asleep on a 3rd and 19, and by Seattle's inability to take advantage of another token bad game by Cutler. And I may have slightly misunderestimated the awesomeness of Aaron Rodgers.
I went 0-4 last week but I am holding my head up high, because my picks made good sense. If those games were all played again right now, I'd keep my picks exactly the same. Except maybe switch to the Packers +2.
Anyway, now I've moved on to the Championship round, in which I'll try to recover a winning record for the playoff picks. The picks are as follows:
Packers (12-6) @ Chicago (12-5)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 3.5
So let me get this straight: because of the way the seedings are determined, all Chicago has to do is beat a 7-9 team at home and they host the NFC Championship game? Does that seem fair to anyone? Chicago isn't even a top 10 team in the NFC! On a neutral field, I'd easily pick Green Bay, Philly, Atlanta, New Orleans, NY Giants, Tampa, Dallas, and probably even the Lions. I officially hate the way the NFL playoffs are set up.
I'm taking Green Bay in this game, even though I wish the line were 1 point lower. I like their advantages in key matchups. Chicago's best player is Julius Peppers, and he faces a strong LT in Chad Clifton. Chicago's only strength on offense is Cutler's arm, and Green Bay has a great secondary and a great pass rush to neutralize him and force him to make his typically terrible decisions. Chicago's excellent linebackers won't play a part because Green Bay rarely runs the ball and Rodgers is smart, creative, athletic and prudent. He throws great in the pocket, or out of the pocket. I like Green Bay's coaching staff in a huge mismatch over the goons named Mike Martz and Rod Marinelli, who helped run the Lions into the ground.
One thing that scares me is the "Nobody believed in us!" angle for Chicago, who is being disrespected as underdogs in their own stadium. But for one thing, Solider Field has never been known as a difficult place to play. For another, Chicago is disrespected because they suck, and even their own fans would admit this. And lastly, I think every player in the Bears' locker room knows that they have a very sub-standard quarterback and they've been lucky to win as many games as they have, dating back to the egregious week 1 game against Detroit. When players don't believe in their quarterback (and how could anyone believe in Jay Cutler?), it makes it hard to rally around him and win a tough game. I don't like Chicago's offense one bit in this game. Green Bay might actually have the best defense in the NFC, though their offense gets all the attention.
Don't be surprised if the Packers defense scores more points than the Bears offense. Also, don't be surprised if I miss my pick, yet again, because rarely does the better team actually win thanks to the ridiculous homefield/seeding rules. I'm still mad that 7-9 Seattle got to host 11-5 New Orleans. That game really did ruin the NFL Playoffs. It should have been in New Orleans, which would have been a win for the Saints, which means the Saints would have played Atlanta last week, and Green Bay would have beat Chicago, giving us a much better NFC Championship. The Saints got screwed, and so did each and every one of us who call ourselves football fans!
Go Packers. There is no upside to Jay Cutler, Mike Martz, Rod Marinelli and Brian Urlacher joining together on a stage to celebrate a Super Bowl championship. Especially when you consider that if Calvin Johnson's catch had been correctly ruled as a catch, Chicago would have been the #6 seed instead of the #2 seed. That one terrible call was the difference between 4 playoff seeds. Really?
Final Score: Green Bay 33, Chicago 10
Jets (13-5) @ Steelers (13-4)
Predicted Line: PIT by 5.5
Actual Line: PIT by 3.5
Well, quite simply there is no joy in picking this game. These are my two least favorite football franchises, and one of them will be in the Super Bowl. It makes me sick at night. I can't sleep.
But I have decided who to cheer for. It might not surprise you. The Jets.
Why? Because as much as I don't want to see Rex Ryan basking in his own immortal greatness, I thought of 3 reasons I wouldn't actually hate the Jets winning the Super Bowl.
1) Jason Taylor. Good guy, great career, he deserves it.
2) Mike Greenberg. My favorite radio personality by a mile. I would be happy for him.
3) Mark Sanchez. Huh? No, not that I like him or that he deserves it. But as a Lions fan, I want Sanchez to win a title for one weird and twisted reason: it demands excellence and accountability from Matthew Stafford.
When the QB who was taken 5 picks after you has a 6-1 playoff record and you have a 3-10 overall record, maybe the adoring media will hold you to a higher standard, and stop picking pieces of glitter out of your poop. Stafford is a B U S T, and nothing could make that more obvious that Sanchez holding the Lombardi trophy in one hand and the MVP trophy in the other.
Why do I want Stafford to fail, you might ask? Well, because I want the Lions to win. And the sooner we dump his ass and play Shaun Hill, the better chance we have of winning 8 or 9 games next year. Sorry for being realistic, but the line "If Stafford can stay healthy" just doesn't do much for me. I've seen Stafford healthy, and it ain't pretty.
So as much as I detest the Jets, and I do, I'll root for them wholeheartedly when my wife isn't watching.
Seriously. She caught me rooting for Baltimore last week and we had a pretty serious fight about it. It snowballed into her feeling that I did not like her family. It got pretty ugly. I tried to explain that it's merely about football, but in Pittsburgh, football=life, which is to say that nobody really cares about football.
They think being a "football town" means great football fans, but it actually does not. The opposite is true. Everyone is so enamored by their Black & Gold clothes and Bradshaw on a Wheaties box that nobody cares to watch the game. Nobody pays attention to the 60 minutes of the field. It's about cheering for a city, not for a team of 53 players. And that takes away from the whole point of the dang thing. Steelers fans essentially root for themselves, and not for their team.
They've won enough, and they don't deserve another Super Bowl. Three championships in 6 years would be a shame for a team that truly isn't elite. They are not a dynasty; not even close. They don't dominate; they merely survive.
As I explained to my wife last week, if the Steelers suffered an 0-16 season, all of their fans would disappear. They would put their stupid memorabilia in a closet and forget about it. There is no loyalty. There is no love. There is just loud, obnoxious, sense-of-entitlement gibberish coming from their mouths.
That's why I can think of nothing worse than a Steelers-Bears Super Bowl.
But for the pick, I am taking Pittsburgh, because they are a better team and they're at home, and they only need 3.5 when this line should be closer to 7.
The Jets put everything into last week's game and they were frankly relived to win. They didn't expect Brady to lay a huge egg and basically play like a backup. The Jets did not win last week; the Patriots merely lost. Same is true for the PIT-BAL game. Baltimore had them 21-7 at halftime, but gained a total of 4 yards in the 3rd quarter to blow the lead, then gave up a 3rd and 19 with 3 minutes left in a tied game. If they had stopped Pittsburgh and forced a punt, that game was theirs.
Both of these teams are lucky to be where they are, but the Jets are more lucky. They barely even belong in the playoffs. They beat Denver thanks to a phantom pass interference call (week 6), beat Detroit thanks to Suh's extra point and Stanton's incomplete (week 9), beat Cleveand thanks to an overtime fumble (week 10), and beat Houston thanks to an 80 yard drive in the final 50 seconds which happened because of blown coverage on 3 seperate plays (week 11).
The Jets went 11-5, but could have easily, EASILY, gone 7-9. The Steelers, on the other hand, went 12-4 and deservedly so. They might have been 13-3 if not for a suspended QB. Pittsburgh is clearly the superior team, and they're at home, so this pick is easy.
Final: Pittsburgh 27, Jets 18.
Ugh. That was painful. On to happier things, like the NFL Draft.
I talked last week about the Lions #13 selection. I've become increasingly convinced that we'll take a defensive player instead of a left tackle, and Von Miller seems to be the best choice. I've been checking into the other 12 teams' needs, and the teams immediately behind Detroit as well.
My overall feeling is that we'll see a lot of trades on April 28, particulaly because of quarterbacks.
Until some pieces have moved around and some dust settles, there is no use in creating a 2011 Mock just yet. Quarterbacks such as Vince Young and Donovan McNabb will be relocated. Kevin Kolb and Kyle Orton will likely be traded. Veterans like Marc Bulger and Chad Pennington will be looking to compete for a starting gig. It's possible that 4 quarterbacks could be taken in the 1st round, but it's also entirely possible that none will. Let's break down the teams that need QBs, one by one.
More on this later. Hope you enjoyed the Top 75 as much as I did.
1) How the heck did I miss all four playoffs picks last weekend?
2) Besides the Packers, who should I cheer for this weekend?
3) Is there any difference between being 'melodramatic' and simply being 'dramatic?' Why add the extra two syllables, unless you're talking about Carmelo Anthony and trying to be clever?
I have no answer for the third question. For the first question, the answer I've come up with is this: I got robbed. Plain and simple. My analysis was spot on, and I was betrayed by Tom Brady, who played his worst game in 2 months, and by Baltimore's defense falling asleep on a 3rd and 19, and by Seattle's inability to take advantage of another token bad game by Cutler. And I may have slightly misunderestimated the awesomeness of Aaron Rodgers.
I went 0-4 last week but I am holding my head up high, because my picks made good sense. If those games were all played again right now, I'd keep my picks exactly the same. Except maybe switch to the Packers +2.
Anyway, now I've moved on to the Championship round, in which I'll try to recover a winning record for the playoff picks. The picks are as follows:
Packers (12-6) @ Chicago (12-5)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 3.5
So let me get this straight: because of the way the seedings are determined, all Chicago has to do is beat a 7-9 team at home and they host the NFC Championship game? Does that seem fair to anyone? Chicago isn't even a top 10 team in the NFC! On a neutral field, I'd easily pick Green Bay, Philly, Atlanta, New Orleans, NY Giants, Tampa, Dallas, and probably even the Lions. I officially hate the way the NFL playoffs are set up.
I'm taking Green Bay in this game, even though I wish the line were 1 point lower. I like their advantages in key matchups. Chicago's best player is Julius Peppers, and he faces a strong LT in Chad Clifton. Chicago's only strength on offense is Cutler's arm, and Green Bay has a great secondary and a great pass rush to neutralize him and force him to make his typically terrible decisions. Chicago's excellent linebackers won't play a part because Green Bay rarely runs the ball and Rodgers is smart, creative, athletic and prudent. He throws great in the pocket, or out of the pocket. I like Green Bay's coaching staff in a huge mismatch over the goons named Mike Martz and Rod Marinelli, who helped run the Lions into the ground.
One thing that scares me is the "Nobody believed in us!" angle for Chicago, who is being disrespected as underdogs in their own stadium. But for one thing, Solider Field has never been known as a difficult place to play. For another, Chicago is disrespected because they suck, and even their own fans would admit this. And lastly, I think every player in the Bears' locker room knows that they have a very sub-standard quarterback and they've been lucky to win as many games as they have, dating back to the egregious week 1 game against Detroit. When players don't believe in their quarterback (and how could anyone believe in Jay Cutler?), it makes it hard to rally around him and win a tough game. I don't like Chicago's offense one bit in this game. Green Bay might actually have the best defense in the NFC, though their offense gets all the attention.
Don't be surprised if the Packers defense scores more points than the Bears offense. Also, don't be surprised if I miss my pick, yet again, because rarely does the better team actually win thanks to the ridiculous homefield/seeding rules. I'm still mad that 7-9 Seattle got to host 11-5 New Orleans. That game really did ruin the NFL Playoffs. It should have been in New Orleans, which would have been a win for the Saints, which means the Saints would have played Atlanta last week, and Green Bay would have beat Chicago, giving us a much better NFC Championship. The Saints got screwed, and so did each and every one of us who call ourselves football fans!
Go Packers. There is no upside to Jay Cutler, Mike Martz, Rod Marinelli and Brian Urlacher joining together on a stage to celebrate a Super Bowl championship. Especially when you consider that if Calvin Johnson's catch had been correctly ruled as a catch, Chicago would have been the #6 seed instead of the #2 seed. That one terrible call was the difference between 4 playoff seeds. Really?
Final Score: Green Bay 33, Chicago 10
Jets (13-5) @ Steelers (13-4)
Predicted Line: PIT by 5.5
Actual Line: PIT by 3.5
Well, quite simply there is no joy in picking this game. These are my two least favorite football franchises, and one of them will be in the Super Bowl. It makes me sick at night. I can't sleep.
But I have decided who to cheer for. It might not surprise you. The Jets.
Why? Because as much as I don't want to see Rex Ryan basking in his own immortal greatness, I thought of 3 reasons I wouldn't actually hate the Jets winning the Super Bowl.
1) Jason Taylor. Good guy, great career, he deserves it.
2) Mike Greenberg. My favorite radio personality by a mile. I would be happy for him.
3) Mark Sanchez. Huh? No, not that I like him or that he deserves it. But as a Lions fan, I want Sanchez to win a title for one weird and twisted reason: it demands excellence and accountability from Matthew Stafford.
When the QB who was taken 5 picks after you has a 6-1 playoff record and you have a 3-10 overall record, maybe the adoring media will hold you to a higher standard, and stop picking pieces of glitter out of your poop. Stafford is a B U S T, and nothing could make that more obvious that Sanchez holding the Lombardi trophy in one hand and the MVP trophy in the other.
Why do I want Stafford to fail, you might ask? Well, because I want the Lions to win. And the sooner we dump his ass and play Shaun Hill, the better chance we have of winning 8 or 9 games next year. Sorry for being realistic, but the line "If Stafford can stay healthy" just doesn't do much for me. I've seen Stafford healthy, and it ain't pretty.
So as much as I detest the Jets, and I do, I'll root for them wholeheartedly when my wife isn't watching.
Seriously. She caught me rooting for Baltimore last week and we had a pretty serious fight about it. It snowballed into her feeling that I did not like her family. It got pretty ugly. I tried to explain that it's merely about football, but in Pittsburgh, football=life, which is to say that nobody really cares about football.
They think being a "football town" means great football fans, but it actually does not. The opposite is true. Everyone is so enamored by their Black & Gold clothes and Bradshaw on a Wheaties box that nobody cares to watch the game. Nobody pays attention to the 60 minutes of the field. It's about cheering for a city, not for a team of 53 players. And that takes away from the whole point of the dang thing. Steelers fans essentially root for themselves, and not for their team.
They've won enough, and they don't deserve another Super Bowl. Three championships in 6 years would be a shame for a team that truly isn't elite. They are not a dynasty; not even close. They don't dominate; they merely survive.
As I explained to my wife last week, if the Steelers suffered an 0-16 season, all of their fans would disappear. They would put their stupid memorabilia in a closet and forget about it. There is no loyalty. There is no love. There is just loud, obnoxious, sense-of-entitlement gibberish coming from their mouths.
That's why I can think of nothing worse than a Steelers-Bears Super Bowl.
But for the pick, I am taking Pittsburgh, because they are a better team and they're at home, and they only need 3.5 when this line should be closer to 7.
The Jets put everything into last week's game and they were frankly relived to win. They didn't expect Brady to lay a huge egg and basically play like a backup. The Jets did not win last week; the Patriots merely lost. Same is true for the PIT-BAL game. Baltimore had them 21-7 at halftime, but gained a total of 4 yards in the 3rd quarter to blow the lead, then gave up a 3rd and 19 with 3 minutes left in a tied game. If they had stopped Pittsburgh and forced a punt, that game was theirs.
Both of these teams are lucky to be where they are, but the Jets are more lucky. They barely even belong in the playoffs. They beat Denver thanks to a phantom pass interference call (week 6), beat Detroit thanks to Suh's extra point and Stanton's incomplete (week 9), beat Cleveand thanks to an overtime fumble (week 10), and beat Houston thanks to an 80 yard drive in the final 50 seconds which happened because of blown coverage on 3 seperate plays (week 11).
The Jets went 11-5, but could have easily, EASILY, gone 7-9. The Steelers, on the other hand, went 12-4 and deservedly so. They might have been 13-3 if not for a suspended QB. Pittsburgh is clearly the superior team, and they're at home, so this pick is easy.
Final: Pittsburgh 27, Jets 18.
Ugh. That was painful. On to happier things, like the NFL Draft.
I talked last week about the Lions #13 selection. I've become increasingly convinced that we'll take a defensive player instead of a left tackle, and Von Miller seems to be the best choice. I've been checking into the other 12 teams' needs, and the teams immediately behind Detroit as well.
My overall feeling is that we'll see a lot of trades on April 28, particulaly because of quarterbacks.
Until some pieces have moved around and some dust settles, there is no use in creating a 2011 Mock just yet. Quarterbacks such as Vince Young and Donovan McNabb will be relocated. Kevin Kolb and Kyle Orton will likely be traded. Veterans like Marc Bulger and Chad Pennington will be looking to compete for a starting gig. It's possible that 4 quarterbacks could be taken in the 1st round, but it's also entirely possible that none will. Let's break down the teams that need QBs, one by one.
- Vince Young to Oakland makes a lot of sense. Al Davis is crazy, and he hates Jason Campbell. I'm at least 50% sure that this happens.
- Donovan McNabb will go to either Arizona or Tennessee. I lean towards Arizona, so he can mentor John Skelton.
- Washington will stick with Grossman and John Beck. Mike Shanahan is arrogant enough to think he can win with those bums. Consequently, he'll be fired in 2011, and Washington will take Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick, and he'll be coached by none other than Bill Cowher. You heard it hear first.
- Cincinnati, Seattle, Jacksonville and Miami will likely retain their current quarterbacks, though none of them should. Those teams will all look for rookie QBs in rounds 3-5, hoping to hit the jackpot. They might look at guys like Bulger and Rosenfels for veteran backups.
- Two teams will definitely be drafting QBs in April: San Francisco and Minnesota.
The 49ers and new coach Jim Harbaugh will want to start the rebuilding process with a youngster, and at pick #7 they should have their choice. There is a chance that Buffalo at pick #3 takes a quarterback, but it's a slim risk. They will probably stick with Fitzgerald, continue building their defense, and hope for Luck next year in more ways than one.
Blaine Gabbert is probably the guy for San Francisco, but don't be surprised if it's Jake Locker. Harbaugh is smart enough to steer clear of Mallet or Newton. He values intelligence more than skills.- Minnesota will also draft a QB. Leslie Frazier has said point blank that he wants the next Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco. That's the same kind of language that Lions' management used before taking Stafford. Minnesota will be happy to pick whomever San Fran doesn't between Locker and Gabbert.
I think those will be the only two QBs taken in the first round. Mallet and Newton will probably be snatched up by either Buffalo, Tennessee, Denver, or Cincinnati in the early second round. Like I said, we'll know a lot more when we find out where McNabb and Vince Young are headed.
For the Lions, I still lean towards an OLB or CB. I think they've got to be considering a trade up so they can land Prince Amukamara. San Fran might be willing to trade back to #13 and give Detroit the #7 pick. But Detroit rarely trades until the second round, so we'll almost certainly see them pick at #13. And I still think it'll be Von Miller.More on this later. Hope you enjoyed the Top 75 as much as I did.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Top 75 Players in the NBA
TOP 75 Players in the NBA
The past two NBA seasons, I’ve compiled a Top 50 NBA Players list. This year, I’ve upped the list to 75. There were just too many quality players being left off the top 50. Without further ado…
75. Nene Hilario, DEN
The 7-foot Brazilian sneaks in thanks to his league-leading 63% field goal percentage and his near 8 rebounds per game.
74. Mike Conley, MEM
The former Buckeye has yet to live up to his #4 overall selection in the 2007 draft, although the numbers are steadily going up across the board. His 2 steals a game and 7 assists both rank in the top 10 in the NBA.
73. Ben Wallace, DET
One of the main reasons I extended this from a Top 50 to a Top 75 was so that I could include a representative from each team. Sadly, Ben was the only Piston, in my opinion, who warranted consideration, and he barely squeaked in. His 6.8 rebounds and 1.1 blocks aren't exactly the 15 and 3.5 that he used to average. The 3.2 ppg is pathetic, but not quite as pathetic as his free-throw percentage. Believe it or not, he's shooting 31.6% from the line. I've coached middle school girls who could do better than that. But Ben comes in at #73 because of his many contributions that don't show up on the stat sheet - redirecting shots, rebounding instincts, hustling for loose balls, and outstanding help-defense. But mainly, he shows up because I couldn't stand the thought of a Top 75 that didn't include any Pistons, when just five years ago there would have been five Pistons in the top 40.
I suppose I could have included Ben Gordon, or Stuckey, or Tayshaun, or even T-Mac. But my contention is that Ben is the Pistons' best overall player. Typing that sentence makes me enormously sad.
My brother summed up the current state of the Pistons perfectly the other day - "Dumars has them in such a bad position that they're 3 years away from even being able to start rebuilding." It's true. Gordon and Villanueva have such horrendous contracts and the team does not have a single young player to build around. Their best chance would have been trading Rip or Tayshaun while they still had some trade value, but those days are passed. We've whiffed on our last 2 first-round picks (Monroe and Daye) while Dumars has assembled a collection of washed-up shooting guards and offensively-challenged bigs. Jonas Jerebko is probably the only Pistons player worth being remotely excited about, and of course he's out all season with an Achilles injury.
The only chance Detroit has of being above .500 in the next 5 years is to get lucky with pingpong balls and land Kemba Walker from UConn or Harrison Barnes from UNC. Speaking of that, the NBA pingpong ball lottery is one of the 5 stupidest things in all of sports, along with 1) the BCS, 2) the MLB all-star game, 3) NFL overtime rules, and 4) the BCS. There's got to be a way to prevent teams from tanking without a random lottery decided by small plastic balls. What about fining teams six-digits if they are suspected of tanking? Or just give the #1 pick to the worst team and if they want to tank, let them. Either solution is better than the stupid ping pong balls. Detroit could conceivably go 3-79 and draft #7 overall. That's stupid.
If merely thinking about the Pistons is making you depressed, I suggest you watch this. And if that doesn't work, there's always this.
72) Tie - Wilson Chandler, NYK and Danilo Gallinari, NYK
I couldn't decide which of these Knicks forwards to rank higher, so I’ve got them tied. Chandler is filling the stat sheet on a regular basis, averaging 17-6-2 with 1.5 blocks and 2 threes a game. No wonder he ranks 13th overall in fantasy basketball, ahead of guys like LeBron, Pierce and Kobe. Gallinari has emerged as a premier outside shooter, scoring about 15 a game and shooting 37% from downtown, while his 87.9% free throw percentage is tied with Nowitzki for the best among frontcourt players. The Knicks surprising start (22-18 so far) has been one of the best stories of 2010, and although Stoudemire deservedly gets most of the credit, Chandler and Gallinari are playing huge roles. Gallinari has played well enough to potentially earn the coveted role of Centerpiece In The Carmelo-To-New-York Trade, which should happen before the February 24 trade deadline. *EDIT* Unless Carmleo goes to the Nets first.
70) Stephen Jackson, CHA
In his ten year career, Jackson has averaged 16 points a game for six different teams, and averaged a career-best 21 last year as a Bobcat. But the reason he's ranked outside the top 60 is his god-awful shooting percentage. 41.7% this year, 41.8% for his career. One of the worst percentages in the entire league on a yearly basis. It's very strange that Charlotte allows him to jack up 15 shots a game.
69) Jeff Green, OKC
The #5 pick a few years ago was taken three picks after teammate Kevin Durant. Together with Russell Westbrook they form one of the best under-25 trios in NBA history. Green is content with his role as the third option in the offense, and chips in with 6 rebounds per game. Every championship contender needs a player like Green - a great talent who understands and embraces his supporting role.
68) Tyson Chandler, DAL
You've really got to pay attention to keep track of what team this guy is on. First Chicago, then New Orleans, then a quick stint in Charlotte and now starting at center for the Mavericks. Chandler's willingness to bang in the paint makes him a perfect compliment for Dirk Nowitzki. He collects about 9 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per night, while shooting a disgustingly good 67.4% from the field. (The reason Nene is the league-leader in FG% with 63% is you have to attempt at least 8 shots per game to qualify; Chandler only takes about 5 shots per game.)
67) Emeka Okafor, NO
Probably hasn't lived up to the #2 overall pick from the 2004 draft, but he's been statistically sound for seven seasons. He's currently averaging a double-double for the sixth time in his career, and he blocks 1.8 shots per game - 12th best overall. His glaring weakness, though, is offensive production. He scores just 11 points a game, which is a clear reflection of his passivity and lack of range. As Chris Paul's center, he should be able to score more than 11 per game.
66) Jason Kidd, DAL
He's fallen well out of the Top 50, but he still deserves top 70 consideration because of his 8.8 assists and 1.8 steals to go with 4.7 rebounds (second among point guards). He's no longer a triple-double machine, but he's still a top 10 point guard when it comes to distributing the ball. The reason he's fallen out of the Top 50 is obvious - he scores just 9 points a game due to his 35.9% shooting percentage. Among the 256 players who've attempted at least 100 shots, Kidd's FG% ranks 254th.
65) Shane Battier, HOU
The ultimate "glue guy," Battier does a little bit of everything. He scores 9 per game along with 5 rebounds, 2.8 assists (5th among SFs), 1.42 blocks (2nd among SFs), and .9 steals (8th among SFs). His greatest assets, however, are the intangibles of intelligence, leadership, selflessness, and hustle. He’s the perfect teammate.
64) Devin Harris, NJ
Usually, when a guy averages 17 points and 7 assists over a three-year span, he'd be ranked higher than this. But the Nets went 12-70 last year, and they're currently 9-25. I like Harris's talent, but he's got to start winning some games to get back in the top 50.
63) Trevor Ariza, NO
His career hit a peak two years ago, when he played an integral role in the Lakers 2009 Championship. He provided outside scoring and lockdown defense and emerged as an all-around stud in the making. L.A. rewarded Ariza by sending him to the Rockets, and replacing him with crazyman Ron Artest. Ariza flopped in Houston, while the Lakers won another title. Then Ariza was sent to the Hornets in a four-team trade, and now shoots about 38% from the field and 25% from downtown - numbers that warrant a seat on the bench. However, Ariza deserves a spot in the top 65 because he is capable of defending the opposing team's best player - a challenge that he's embraced since the '09 playoffs. His 1.68 steals per game are 12th in the NBA, and he's a big reason why the Hornets have the NBA's second best defense.
62. Andrea Bargani, TOR
The 7-foot Italian was picked #1 overall in 2006, and was believed to be the next Dirk Nowitzki. That hasn't exactly happened. But statistically, this is by far his best season, as Chris Bosh's exit to Miami left the job wide open. Bargani has excellent post moves and a solid outside shot, but leaves a lot to be desired on the defensive end. 5.6 rebounds per game isn't good enough for a 7-foot player. Like many other European players, he's just not aggressive enough.
61. Jason Terry, DAL
Despite being the second best player on the Mavericks, Terry comes off the bench. It's the same strange phenomenon that brought Al Harrington off the bench for the Pacers and Ginobili for the Spurs. My only explanation is that those teams have some personal interest in winning the Sixth Man of the Year award.
60. Brandon Jennings, MIL
The sophomore point guard is currently dealing with a broken foot, but should be back later in January. Last year he exploded onto the scene with 55 points in his 7th career start, and led the surprising Bucks into the playoffs. Expectations were high this season, and although he was scoring 18 per game along with 6 assists before the foot injury, the Bucks weren't winning. They were supposed to content for the Central Division, and instead they're struggling to stay in the playoff picture. Jennings has a long way to go, but he's an Iverson-like talent.
59. Andre Iguodala, PHI
Iggy has been the Star Player on a Bad Team for a six seasons now, and it's finally time to make a change. He's proven that he'll never be the star on a good team, but time will tell if he could be a solid sidekick. He'll surely be off the Sixers by next season. His scoring (and playing time) have dropped this year, but he's still putting up 6 rebounds and 5 assists along with 1.5 steals, numbers that have been consistent his entire career. But Philly hasn't finished above .500 since drafting Iggy in 2004, and that's all that matters.
58. Antwan Jamison, CLE
Jamison's inconsistency and overall mediocrity is largely to blame for why LeBron left. He spent seven seasons trying to make Cleveland a championship team without a legitimate #2 guy. When the team traded for Jamison, it was more of an insult to LeBron than anything else. "Really, THIS is the best you could get me?" A washed-up, injury-prone, outside-shooting big man? Now, Jamison leads the 8-32 Cavs with about 16 points per game.
57. Al Jefferson, UTA
Two years ago I ranked Jefferson the 17th best overall player, and I thought his arrow was pointing up. He was one of the league's best post players, averaging 21 and 11 with 2 blocks. Now he's scoring just 16 per game with the worst shooting percentage of his career, and he's allowed Paul Millsap to be the Jazz's dominant post player on offense. But in terms of a post defender, it still doesn't get much better than Jefferson.
56. Joakim Noah, CHI
Would have probably been ranked higher before the thumb injury which sidelined him for the past 3+ weeks. He's an elite hustle/rebounder/defender with a knack for making big plays in the clutch. He's also one of the ugliest people to ever live on planet earth.
55. Stephen Curry, GS
Last year's Rookie of the Year runner-up, Curry had a tough task living up to his awesome rookie season (17.5 points, 5.9 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.9 steals); but he's pretty close to replicating those numbers across the board. It's especially impressive when you consider that he's being asked to play point guard and distribute the ball, when he clearly should be a spot-up shooter. Curry is a fantasy basketball dreamboat, but in real life ... he's 185 pounds of defensive liability. One of many reasons why the Warriors won't be anywhere near the playoffs.
54. Luis Scola, HOU
The Argentinean monster has replaced Yao Ming admirably over the past 3 seasons. This is his best year yet, with 20 points and 9 boards along with a 51% shooting percentage. He’s a hustle machine and could easily be the third best player on a championship team. I’m not convinced he deserves the All Star hype he’s getting, but you definitely could do worse at starting center.
53. Elton Brand, PHI
He’s been called the Worst Free-Agency Signing of all time, although I think #46 on this list dethroned him this past summer. Brand is currently being paid $16 million a year by the Sixers … and instead of the 24 points, 10 rebounds and 2.5 blocks that he averaged with the Clippers, he now puts up a lazy 15 and 8, with half as many blocks and a much lower shooting percentage. He’s content to jack up mid range jumpers and stay out of the paint. But at least he’s actually playing this year. He spent the last two seasons in Philly getting paid $30+ million to sit on the bench with various injuries. Brand is living proof that (enormous contract) + (convenient injuries) + (uninspired play) = a GM’s worst nightmare. Speaking of which…
52. Ron Artest, LAL
Can you believe he’s rebounded (no pun intended) from the Malice at the Palace incident to re-become one of the league’s best defensive players? If you had told me back in 2004 that Artest would still be good in 6 years and the entire Pistons team would be worthless, I would have laughed. Damn. I will now weep bitterly in the coat closet.
51. John Wall, WAS
He’ll finish second in Rookie of the Year voting, but with 16 points per game, 9 assists, and 1.8 steals, Wall has lived up to the immense hype. Now, with Gilbert Arenas traded to Orlando, Wall has the opportunity to shoulder the scoring load in Washington, and should be well over 20 ppg next season. Two things are troubling, though: the awful shooting percentage (40.1%), and the myriad of injuries. He’s already missed roughly a third of the season with knee problems, and he’s only 20 years old.
50. David West, NO
He’s replaced Amare Stoudemire as the league’s premiere Big Guy Who Benefits From Playing With An Elite Point Guard. I have no idea how good West would be without CP3. Probably pretty average. But since Paul was drafted, West averages about 19 a game. He’s not a great rebounder or defender, but that’s Okafor’s territory. West’s job is the pick-and-roll offense, and he’s very good at it.
49. Marcus Camby, POR
Another year, another 11 rebounds and 2 blocks for one of the most consistently great defensive players of our generation. Last year he ranked #48. This year he’s #49. Talk about consistency. Camby ranks fifth among active players in career rebounds (8,675) and third in blocks (2,199).
48. Mo Williams, CLE
LeBron leaving essentially turned Mo from a shooting guard to a point guard, and he’s averaging a surprising 7.3 assists along with 15 points. But let’s not kid ourselves. If the best player on your team is Mo Williams, you’re probably winning less than 20 games (they’re on pace for 16).
47. Jameer Nelson, ORL
I’ve always thought of him as a Poor Man’s Chauncey. He’s strong for a point guard, shoots an accurate deep-ball, and focuses on distributing to the wings and the big guy. He’s not half the defender Chauncey is (or should I say, was), but he’s a top 10 pure point guard offensively, and he is really the only consistent shooter on Orlando’s 25-13 team..
46. Joe Johnson, ATL
It’s very convenient when players with $119 million dollar contracts miss 2 weeks because of minor elbow injuries. Also convenient when their PPG and RPG suddenly drop to the lowest they’ve been in 6 years, and they shoot the worst three-point percentage in the entire NBA. He’s a leading candidate for worst contract in NBA history. So why does JJ come in at #46? Because only 7 other guys average an 18-5-4 or better, and they’re all ranked in the top 20.
45. Zach Randolph, MEM
The former Spartan and Jailblazer has reinvented himself in Memphis as one of the few dominant inside players on both ends of the court. He’s fourth in the NBA in double-doubles with 21 (in 35 games), he’s third in rebounding, and most importantly, he’s staying out of trouble.
44. Raymond Felton, NYK
His career is following the Chauncey Billups Path – top 5 draft pick, considered a bust after 5 disappointing years on losing teams, and then found a new home. In New York, Felton is now scoring 18 per game with 9 assists and shooting 90% from the line. Very Chauncey-esque numbers. Now he’s just got to win an NBA Finals MVP to complete the process.
43. Eric Gordon, LAC
Currently tenth in the NBA in scoring, and that’s in spite of shooting the second-worst 3PT% in the NBA. As his 3-pt percentage slowly creeps up this year (and it will), his 24 points per game might inch closer to 26 or 27. He’s a no-doubt-about-it future All Star.
42. Kevin Martin, HOU
In his first full season with the Rockets, K-Mart is putting up nearly 23 points per game in just 31 minutes per game– giving him the second best points-per-48 ratio in the NBA. Shooting 43% from downtown certainly helps. So does leading the NBA in free throws made. But Houston is far from the playoffs so leading them in scoring doesn’t mean much. In case you’re wondering - the best points-per-48 belongs to Kobe.
41. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR
With Brandon Roy’s meniscus busted and possibly needing surgery, Aldridge has stepped up and currently has Portland fighting for the 8th seed. He’s easily having the best season of his career, and has accomplished the rare feat of becoming more effective and more efficient at the same time. He’s really the team’s only weapon on offense, unless you count Wesley Matthews as an offensive weapon. I don’t .
40. Paul Millsap, UTA
Went from incredibly underrated to mildly overrated to now again being underrated. He’s basically Jason Maxiell with consistency and better offense. Averages 18 and 8 and shoots 55% from the field in his first year as a starter. He and Al Jefferson form one of the best frontcourts in the NBA. He runs the pick-and-roll with Williams as well as Boozer did.
39. Lamar Odom, LAL
Very Shane Battier-esque, Odom does a little bit of everything without doing too much. He ranks third on the Lakers in scoring, second in rebounding, third in assists, and third in blocks, all while shooting a sparkly 57% from the field. He’s one of the best 6’10” ball handlers in the NBA.
38. Michael Beasley, MIN
The former #2 overall pick is finally living up to expectations, scoring 21 ppg with 6 rpg in his first year with the T-wolves.. But I distinctly recall the 2008 NBA Draft, hearing Beasley compared to Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan, but with more athleticism. He’s not quite there yet. More like a young Antonio McDyess.
37. Al Horford, ATL
One of the best up-and-coming big men in the league. Shoots a great percentage from the field and the free-throw line, and is athletic enough to guard any player on the floor. The Hawks are the only team in the NBA which can seamlessly switch defenders on picks, because of the incredible speed and athleticism of Horford and Josh Smith. He’s not a bad rebounder either, with 9.9 per game despite being only 6’10”.
36. Monta Ellis
Last year, Ellis finished sixth in the NBA in scoring with 25.5 per game, and led the entire NBA in minutes. This year, he’s third in scoring (25.6) and again first in minutes. So why doesn’t he crack the top 35? Because I value wins. And the Warriors win about 35% of their games. But hey, maybe Joe Dumars will make a move and bring Ellis to the Pistons. After all, he’s a shoot-first 2 guard with no sense of team, and you can never have too many of those!
35. Kevin Garnett, BOS
The perennial enigma. He’s sort of the LaDanian Tomlinson of basketball. You keep waiting for him to be washed-up, but you’re never really sure. Some would argue that he’s been Boston’s MVP this season, but I think he’s their fourth best player. I’ll keep him here to be tentatively safe.
34. Brandon Roy, POR
His career has been a quiet tragedy. Just last year I ranked him 11th overall. He was ascending into superstardom. Now, the Blazers aren’t sure if he’ll play another minute this season, or even next season. His knee injuries have snowballed into calamity. I would still want him on my team, simply with the hope that he would regain full strength. When healthy, he’s as dynamic a guard as there is, with the ability to score or pass from anywhere and defend anyone from position 1 to 3. But he just can’t stay healthy.
33. Rudy Gay, MEM
In his fifth year with the Grizzlies, Gay is averaging career-bests in the eight most important statistics: points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, FG%, FT%, and 3PT%. But the team’s winning percentage (.429) is slightly lower from last year’s (.488), and the Grizz have never made the playoffs since Gay joined the team. He’s well on his way to being the second coming of Iguodala.
32. Chauncey Billups, DEN
Steadily declining and now muddled in trade rumors, Billups’s career has become something of a shame for those of us who miss the glory days of 2004. He can still knock down the three and he’s still a great passer, but any semblance of speed that he used to have is gone. His athleticism is disintegrated. He’s a 34 year old in a 44 year old’s body.
31. David Lee, GS
You would think that a terrific rebounder on the team that misses the most shots per game would make for a historic season, or at least a repeat of last year’s 12 rebounds a game, but instead Lee is only averaging 9.6 boards in his first year on Golden State. His scoring is down by 5 per game, too, and the field goal percentage has dropped from 54% to 47%. Just not a good fit. Adding a guy who can’t play defense to a team that doesn’t play defense apparently wasn’t a smart move. This year, Lee lost his crown as Best American-Born White Guy in the NBA.
30. Tony Parker, SA
It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Parker. No, his stats are good, and his team has the best record in the NBA, and he’s having his best season ever defensively. But amidst all the Spurs’ winning, Parker lost his desperate housewife, Eva Longoria. They are currently in the process of being divorced.
29. Ray Allen, BOS
At age 35, Allen just seems to keep getting better and better. Or at least staying the same, which is still impressive. He’s attempted over 6,000 three-pointers in his 14 year career (second most ever) and somehow is shooting the best percentage of his career with 35 year old legs. His free-throw percentage is a glittery 89%, as usual. Oh, and at some point in the next 15-20 games, he figures to break Reggie Miller’s record for the most three-pointers made. He needs 34 more, and averages 2.2 per game. He’ll hold on to that record for a long while, because there isn’t a challenger in sight. The other active players on the list (Stojakovic, Billups, Kobe, Kidd, Nash) are all too old.
28. Gerald Wallace, CHA
A better fantasy basketball player than real basketball player, G-Wallace is one of the most well-rounded players in the league. 16 points, 8 board, 3 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.5 blocks … but this year his percentages are way down and he’s missed 9 games with an ankle injury. Defensively, he’s one of the best small forwards alive, but his offensive game could use a lot of work.
27. Brook Lopez, NJ
Weird year. He averaged 21 points and 7 rebounds through October and November, and since that point averages more like 14 and 5. Last year he did almost the same thing. He might be schizophrenic. If Carmelo joins the Nets, that will allow Lopez to play a supporting role, which is probably what he needs.
26. Danny Granger, IND
His career is sort of at a crossroads. Keep trying to be ‘the guy,’ averaging 20+ on a crappy team, or get yourself traded to a legit contender and morph into a sidekick while your stats sink? If he cares about money, he’ll keep being ‘the guy.’ Hopefully he cares more about winning, because on a good team he could be one heck of an asset.
25. Manu Ginobili, SA
He’s averaging career highs in points, FT%, 3PTs, steals, and assists, and is a prominent reason for the Spurs league-best 33-6 record. Some have even called him an MVP candidate. And he used to come off the bench. How stupid.
24. Josh Smith, ATL
One of the league’s best shot blockers and best all-around defensive players, and his offensive game continues to improve. He’s got to stop jacking up threes though.
23. Andrew Bogut, MIL
First in blocks, sixth in rebounds, and coming off a 27 rebound game against Miami a couple weeks ago. The former #1 pick is officially no longer a bust!
22. Chris Bosh, MIA
His fall out of the top 20 has been one of the most important basketball stories of the season. It could be the biggest reason why Miami doesn’t win the championship this year, though I still think they will. But everyone expected Miami to have three superstars; instead they have two superstars and one quasi-kind-of-nervous-star. Bosh looks awkward, timid, and completely out-of-place. The look on his face says, “I can’t believe everybody hates me so much! I’m a nice guy, damn it. UGH, I knew I should have gone to Chicago….”
It was a given that his PPG and RPG would drop, but how in the world does acquiring LeBron and Wade as teammates cause your FG% to drop??? That makes no sense whatsoever. Drafting Bosh with the 11th overall pick in my fantasy basketball draft was one of the worst decisions I made in 2010.
21. Tim Duncan, SA
Not since John Stockton and Jerry Sloan has there been a more perfect coach-teammate marriage than the one between Duncan and Popovich. Duncan continues to be the most consistent superstar of our generation, and despite career-lows in minutes and points, he’s leading the Spurs on a 68-win pace. If they lock up the #1 seed in the playoffs it will be interesting to see if they can hold off the Lakers.
20. Carlos Boozer, CHI
Missed the first month of the year with a broken hand, then came back just in time for Joakim Noah to break his thumb. While the two were together, Chicago won 7 straight. The Eastern Conference better watch out.
19. Tyreke Evans, SAC
Everyone knows by now about Tyreke’s rookie season, how he averaged a 20-5-5 and was only the fourth rookie ever to do that, and the other three were LeBron, MJ, and Oscar. That’s old news. Now it’s becoming clear that a 20-5-5 might be his ceiling. He’s probably not going to evolve into a 29-7-7 guy like LeBron or a 33-8-7 guy like Michael. This year he’s actually down to 17-4-5, and it’s starting to look like his rookie year might have been a semi-fluke. He’s still great, don’t get me wrong, but he doesn’t appear to be skyrocketing like a 20-5-5 rookie should.
18. Kevin Love, MIN
Just weeks prior to the tipoff of NBA season, I nonchalantly proclaimed that Love would lead the NBA in rebounding. I drafted him 31st overall in my fantasy league. Well, he’s not just leading the league in rebounding. He’s freaking embarrassing everybody else involved.
Love has 7 games of 20 or more rebounds this year (including a whopping 31 back in November). Nobody else has more than 3. He put up 43 points and 17 rebounds against Denver, and then 35 and 15 against Charlotte. Then there was the 23-24, the 32-22, and three other times where he had at least 20 and 20.
Oh, and he also shoots 87% from the free-throw line and 43% from downtown – both top 5 marks in the NBA among big guys. He leads the NBA in double-doubles (and has 25 straight) and is getting better statistically as the season progresses. As I said, I drafted him 31st overall. He currently ranks #3 in standard fantasy basketball scoring. I’m probably a genius.
One last stat - If Love maintains his 15.8 rpg mark (and he will), it will be the best single-season RPG mark since Dennis Rodman back in 1997. So, yeah. Best American-Born White Guy in the NBA, hands down.
17. Russell Westbrook, OKC
A candidate for most improved player, Westbrook continues to make huge strides each season and is now a bona fide top 20 player and top 5 point guard. He’s one of the best “all-around” players, in the purest sense of the word. He’s a double-double machine, whether it’s points-assists or occasionally points-rebounds. He’s basically a younger, more athletic Jason Kidd, without the superhuman court vision, but with a competent jump shot and much better defense. He’s up to 22.2 points per game (2nd among PGs, 12th overall) and 8.3 assists (9th overall), along with 5.1 rebounds (1st among PGs) and 1.93 steals (4th overall). His FT% and FG% are both currently career highs, and he complements Durant so well that it’s scary.
16. Paul Pierce, BOS
Steady scoring, solid defense, well-rounded game. More of the same from Pierce. It’s worth noting that he’s shooting better than 50% from the field for the first time in his career, and also a career-best from the FT line. It’s been nothing but good since last year’s All Star game, when Pierce proclaimed himself “one of the greatest shooters in NBA history.” Hmm… I think 50 or 60 other players might take exception to that.
15 Steve Nash, PHO
In his first year post-Amare, Phoenix has fallen behind Memphis and Houston and currently sits at 11th in the West. For only the second time in 8 years, they’ll likely miss the playoffs.
But I don't blame Nash. He's still one of the best point guards, even at 36 years old. He's putting up almost 11 assists with no great teammates, and shouldering the scoring load when necessary. His complete lack of a big man hasn’t taken away from his assists numbers, but it has kept the Suns from being competitive. Sorry, Robin Lopez. I had big hopes for you, but your ridiculous white-man afro and that fact that you’re dating Michelle Wie just isn’t getting it done.
14. Blake Griffin, LAC
Griffin was drafted #1 overall in 2009, but missed the entire season with a crappy knee injury. People started calling him another typical Clippers bust. But we had no idea what was coming.
This year, technically Griffin’s rookie season, the 21 year old has been an absolute freak of nature, and quickly vaulted into the upper echelon of NBA talent. He has simply been one of the best rookies of all time, and secured a Rookie of the Year landslide back in November when he scored 44 on the Knicks. Here are some numbers to put Griffin’s historically good season in perspective:
Since 1990, only two rookies have averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds, and both are first ballot Hall of Famers. Their names, in case you’re wondering, are Tim Duncan and Shaquille O’Neal. Duncan averaged 21.1 and 11.9, and Shaq 23.4 and 13.9. They went on to win a combined 8 NBA championships and 6 MVPs, with 27 combined All Star appearances.
Griffin is currently the third rookie since 1990 to average a 20 and 10. In fact, he’s actually averaging a 21.9 and 12.7. And he has twice as many assists per game as either Shaq or Duncan had in their rookie campaigns.
He’s become perhaps the Most Fun to Watch player in the NBA, and will become even more adored after he wins the Dunk Competition in February (and he will win). His current streak of double-doubles is at 26 games. He’s also got the best dunk of the year, and probably the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best dunks as well. You should definitely watch this highlight video. *EDIT* Griffin just scored 47 points last night, the most points any player has scored this season.
13. Pau Gasol, LAL
Griffin is more dynamic, more athletic, and more fun, but Gasol gets the nod for the better big man in LA because of his well-roundedness and outside shot. He’s got more assists per game than any other center or power forward, and actually ranks eighth in blocks. So much for the soft, European image. He’s also sixth in rebounding, which is impressive when you consider that he plays less than 30 minutes a game, since the Lakers win so many blowouts. With 18.4 points per game, Gasol ranks 30th in overall scoring, but of the 29 players ahead of him only three (Nowitzki, Howard, Griffin) have better field goal percentages.
12. Rajon Rondo, BOS
Last year Rondo made the leap to officially become Boston’s best player. He led the NBA in steals and was 4th in assists. (It’s hilarious that people still call Garnett, Allen & Pierce the “Big Three.”) In the playoffs Rondo made a considerable push towards becoming the NBA’s best point guard, averaging 15.8 points, 9.3 assists and 5.6 rebounds in 24 playoff games, including the famous 29-13-18 game against Cleveland in which LeBron officially gave up and packed his bags for Miami. Just as Kevin Love stole the rebounding crown away from Dwight Howard early in the year, Rondo took the assists category away from Nash and Paul with a fury. Four games into the season Rondo was already averaging 17 assists, and he hasn’t looked back yet.
But one thing is holding Rondo back, and keeps him out of the top 10. A pretty important part of basketball called scoring. With just 10.9 PPG, and an abysmal 46% free-throw percentage, Rondo is much more likely to be the next Jason Kidd then the next Isaiah Thomas. How can someone be so good at basketball, and shoot just 46% from the line? Bizarre.
11. Amare Stoudemire, NYK
I’ll admit, I was skeptical. When Amare went to New York and couldn’t recruit LeBron to join him, I thought his season would go in the tank. Part of the reason it hasn’t is brilliant coaching, and a big part of the credit belongs to Felton, Chandler, Gallo, and rookie Landry Fields. But let’s give Amare the credit he deserves. If the season ended today, he’d probably win MVP.
However, the season doesn’t end today, and the Knicks are just 6-8 since their 16-9 start to the season. Maybe it was a fluke. Maybe they’ll end up with the 6 or 7 seed and get swept in the first round. Amare still ranks 2nd in scoring this season, 3rd in blocks and 13th in rebounds, but his PPG is down from a gaudy 29.8 in December to a modest 24.3 so far in January. Great season, but I’d like to see some consistency before he cracks the top 10.
10. Carmelo Anthony, DEN?
Speaking of New York, Carmelo is so engulfed in trade rumors that it’s hard to judge the kind of season he’s actually having on the court. It’s likely that by the time I finish this sentence he’ll be on either the Nets or Knicks, but who knows. He’s a great talent and will play phenomenally for whichever team he gets traded to, so I’ll rank him 10th. Should be higher, but a few young players have leaped past him this year.
9. Dwayne Wade, MIA
Speaking of douche bags … wait, I wasn’t speaking of douche bags? Oh, never mind. D-Wade, AKA Flash, AKA LeBron’s bitch, AKA whatever you want to call him, is an overrated punk who puts up incredible stats but I wouldn’t trust to win an important game in the clutch nearly as much as I’d trust the other 8 guys on this list, and probably a dozen others. He’s just overrated. I don’t care who disagrees with me, it’s my list.
8. Deron Williams, UTA
For years I referred to Williams as “The NBA’s Best Kept Secret.” I don’t think it’s a secret anymore. The dude is just flat-out incredible. He’s like Chauncey in his prime, but with much more athleticism and a smoother mid range shot. Most importantly, he’s a winner. The pieces in Utah have changed over the past 5 years, but Williams makes sure they keep winning. Currently they’re tied for 3rd in the West. And Williams is the only reason.
7. Chris Paul, NO
It’s amazing that CP3 is still on the Hornets, after a much-publicized summer in which he announced his plans to be traded. Paul’s numbers are slightly down across the board, but that relates to his lack of aggressiveness on offense. Over the past 4 seasons his FG attempts per game have been 13.6, 16.1, 16.1, and 14.2. This year, just 11.3. As a result, he’s scoring only 16.5 per game, the lowest total since his rookie year. He’s also under 10 assists/game for the first time since 2007. I don’t know what’s up with him. I guess he, like Carmelo, is just waiting for a change of scenery.
6. Dwight Howard, ORL
Still the NBA’s best big man, but no longer a lock for Defensive Player of the Year. That award might go to either Bogut, Josh Smith, or Artest. Howard currently ranks 2nd in rebounding and 5th in blocks, which means the streak of winning both categories will end. His free-throw percentage continues to be his Kryptonite, as he shoots just 58.9% from the line. That’s particularly important because Howard leads the NBA in free-throws attempted.
5. Derrick Rose, CHI
Probably the biggest surprise on this list, but Rose proved he belongs in the top five last week when he single-handedly beat Wade and the Heat with 34 points, including 11 in the fourth quarter. He’s endured injuries to Boozer, Noah, and now Boozer again, and maintained a 24.5 scoring average at just 22 years old. He’s got 8 assists per game, along with 4.5 rebounds, and has made the very unexpected jump from a fringe-top 10 point guard to best overall point guard in just one unbelievable season. Apologies to Williams and Paul and Rondo, but they don’t have the dominant offensive prowess of Rose. Chicago has a 10 game lead in the Central Division, and remember, Boozer and Noah have both spent over a month in street clothes. That team is going to be scary good for a long time.
4. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL
Forget ‘Best White Guy in the NBA.’ That’s a lock. Dirk is on his way to claiming a spot among the Top Five White Guys of all Time. (The list goes like this: #1 Larry Bird; #2 Jerry West; #3 Bob Cousy; #4 John Stockton; #5 John Havlicek; #6 Pete Maravich; #7 Kevin McHale, #8 Steve Nash…) I know this list is supposed to reflect 2010 and not be a lifetime achievement thing, but Dirk is averaging 23+ points for the 7th straight year and that’s pretty impressive. If he plays three more seasons at this pace, he’ll be in the top 10 in NBA history in points scored. Remember, he’s only 32 years old. And he’s a jump shooter, so playing until he’s 38 isn’t out of the question.
But for strictly 2010 purposes, all Dirk is doing is shooting a career best 54% from the field and 87.6% from the FT line, while keeping Dallas at 4th in the West despite injuries and general mediocrity around him. They are a perennial contender and shouldn’t be taken lightly.
3. LeBron James, MIA
It’s been a horrible past twelve months for LBJ. To recap: quit halfway through the playoffs; staged an ego-maniacal press conference to announce his ‘decision’ which instantly vaulted him into the top 5 most hated athletes in America (along with a rapist, a dog-killer, a sex addict, and Terrell Owens); turned the Heat into the most universally-hated sports franchise since … well, ever; began the season 9-8 when some people (myself included) didn’t think they’d lose 8 games all year. His scoring per game has dropped 4.3 points and his MVP chances are decimated for this year and the next 5 years, thus crippling any chance he has of ever being in the Michael Jordan Discussion for greatest player ever. He’s widely considered Dwayne Wade’s sidekick (although LeBron is obviously the better player) and he’s fervently booed everywhere he goes, including his hometown, who greeted him with chants of “Ak-ron hates you” when he returned to Cleveland.
But there is good news for LeBron: He leads the entire league in one very important statistical category. That would be … turnovers.
2. Kevin Durant, OKC
Isn’t it weird that he’s leading the NBA in scoring and I’m somehow disappointed? Durant is averaging 28.5 ppg, but I honestly expected 32 or more. In 37 games so far, he’s scored at least 20 in 34 of them. He’s been at 30 or more in 15 contests. His percentages are just a hair lower than last season, and he’s attempted slightly fewer field goals and free throws per game. But let’s not forget that he’s well on his way to a second straight scoring title, and he’s not doing it selfishly. In the past 15 years of basketball, the way to win a scoring title was by taking the most shots. (See: Kobe in 2006, Iverson in 2004, TMac in 2002) But Durant is currently fifth in the NBA in field goal attempts, with only 21 more shot attempts than his own teammate, but still the leading scorer by a comfortable margin. A big part of that is Durant knows how to get to the free throw line, and when he gets there he’s near-perfect. No other small forward comes close to Durant’s 88.1% FT percentage. This year Durant has stepped up his game from a scoring machine on a losing team to a scoring machine on a winning team, and that’s one of the most difficult transitions for a star player to make. I can’t wait to watch OKC in the playoffs.
1. Kobe Bryant, LA
I could mention the effortless scoring, the steady winning, or the fact that Kobe is a legitimate contender for Defensive MVP. But only one statistic needs to be mentioned: two-time defending NBA Finals MVP. As Kobe sneaks into his mid 30s, this might be his last season at the #1 spot. But for this year, he’s definitely earned it.
The past two NBA seasons, I’ve compiled a Top 50 NBA Players list. This year, I’ve upped the list to 75. There were just too many quality players being left off the top 50. Without further ado…
75. Nene Hilario, DEN
The 7-foot Brazilian sneaks in thanks to his league-leading 63% field goal percentage and his near 8 rebounds per game.
74. Mike Conley, MEM
The former Buckeye has yet to live up to his #4 overall selection in the 2007 draft, although the numbers are steadily going up across the board. His 2 steals a game and 7 assists both rank in the top 10 in the NBA.
73. Ben Wallace, DET
One of the main reasons I extended this from a Top 50 to a Top 75 was so that I could include a representative from each team. Sadly, Ben was the only Piston, in my opinion, who warranted consideration, and he barely squeaked in. His 6.8 rebounds and 1.1 blocks aren't exactly the 15 and 3.5 that he used to average. The 3.2 ppg is pathetic, but not quite as pathetic as his free-throw percentage. Believe it or not, he's shooting 31.6% from the line. I've coached middle school girls who could do better than that. But Ben comes in at #73 because of his many contributions that don't show up on the stat sheet - redirecting shots, rebounding instincts, hustling for loose balls, and outstanding help-defense. But mainly, he shows up because I couldn't stand the thought of a Top 75 that didn't include any Pistons, when just five years ago there would have been five Pistons in the top 40.
I suppose I could have included Ben Gordon, or Stuckey, or Tayshaun, or even T-Mac. But my contention is that Ben is the Pistons' best overall player. Typing that sentence makes me enormously sad.
My brother summed up the current state of the Pistons perfectly the other day - "Dumars has them in such a bad position that they're 3 years away from even being able to start rebuilding." It's true. Gordon and Villanueva have such horrendous contracts and the team does not have a single young player to build around. Their best chance would have been trading Rip or Tayshaun while they still had some trade value, but those days are passed. We've whiffed on our last 2 first-round picks (Monroe and Daye) while Dumars has assembled a collection of washed-up shooting guards and offensively-challenged bigs. Jonas Jerebko is probably the only Pistons player worth being remotely excited about, and of course he's out all season with an Achilles injury.
The only chance Detroit has of being above .500 in the next 5 years is to get lucky with pingpong balls and land Kemba Walker from UConn or Harrison Barnes from UNC. Speaking of that, the NBA pingpong ball lottery is one of the 5 stupidest things in all of sports, along with 1) the BCS, 2) the MLB all-star game, 3) NFL overtime rules, and 4) the BCS. There's got to be a way to prevent teams from tanking without a random lottery decided by small plastic balls. What about fining teams six-digits if they are suspected of tanking? Or just give the #1 pick to the worst team and if they want to tank, let them. Either solution is better than the stupid ping pong balls. Detroit could conceivably go 3-79 and draft #7 overall. That's stupid.
If merely thinking about the Pistons is making you depressed, I suggest you watch this. And if that doesn't work, there's always this.
72) Tie - Wilson Chandler, NYK and Danilo Gallinari, NYK
I couldn't decide which of these Knicks forwards to rank higher, so I’ve got them tied. Chandler is filling the stat sheet on a regular basis, averaging 17-6-2 with 1.5 blocks and 2 threes a game. No wonder he ranks 13th overall in fantasy basketball, ahead of guys like LeBron, Pierce and Kobe. Gallinari has emerged as a premier outside shooter, scoring about 15 a game and shooting 37% from downtown, while his 87.9% free throw percentage is tied with Nowitzki for the best among frontcourt players. The Knicks surprising start (22-18 so far) has been one of the best stories of 2010, and although Stoudemire deservedly gets most of the credit, Chandler and Gallinari are playing huge roles. Gallinari has played well enough to potentially earn the coveted role of Centerpiece In The Carmelo-To-New-York Trade, which should happen before the February 24 trade deadline. *EDIT* Unless Carmleo goes to the Nets first.
70) Stephen Jackson, CHA
In his ten year career, Jackson has averaged 16 points a game for six different teams, and averaged a career-best 21 last year as a Bobcat. But the reason he's ranked outside the top 60 is his god-awful shooting percentage. 41.7% this year, 41.8% for his career. One of the worst percentages in the entire league on a yearly basis. It's very strange that Charlotte allows him to jack up 15 shots a game.
69) Jeff Green, OKC
The #5 pick a few years ago was taken three picks after teammate Kevin Durant. Together with Russell Westbrook they form one of the best under-25 trios in NBA history. Green is content with his role as the third option in the offense, and chips in with 6 rebounds per game. Every championship contender needs a player like Green - a great talent who understands and embraces his supporting role.
68) Tyson Chandler, DAL
You've really got to pay attention to keep track of what team this guy is on. First Chicago, then New Orleans, then a quick stint in Charlotte and now starting at center for the Mavericks. Chandler's willingness to bang in the paint makes him a perfect compliment for Dirk Nowitzki. He collects about 9 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per night, while shooting a disgustingly good 67.4% from the field. (The reason Nene is the league-leader in FG% with 63% is you have to attempt at least 8 shots per game to qualify; Chandler only takes about 5 shots per game.)
67) Emeka Okafor, NO
Probably hasn't lived up to the #2 overall pick from the 2004 draft, but he's been statistically sound for seven seasons. He's currently averaging a double-double for the sixth time in his career, and he blocks 1.8 shots per game - 12th best overall. His glaring weakness, though, is offensive production. He scores just 11 points a game, which is a clear reflection of his passivity and lack of range. As Chris Paul's center, he should be able to score more than 11 per game.
66) Jason Kidd, DAL
He's fallen well out of the Top 50, but he still deserves top 70 consideration because of his 8.8 assists and 1.8 steals to go with 4.7 rebounds (second among point guards). He's no longer a triple-double machine, but he's still a top 10 point guard when it comes to distributing the ball. The reason he's fallen out of the Top 50 is obvious - he scores just 9 points a game due to his 35.9% shooting percentage. Among the 256 players who've attempted at least 100 shots, Kidd's FG% ranks 254th.
65) Shane Battier, HOU
The ultimate "glue guy," Battier does a little bit of everything. He scores 9 per game along with 5 rebounds, 2.8 assists (5th among SFs), 1.42 blocks (2nd among SFs), and .9 steals (8th among SFs). His greatest assets, however, are the intangibles of intelligence, leadership, selflessness, and hustle. He’s the perfect teammate.
64) Devin Harris, NJ
Usually, when a guy averages 17 points and 7 assists over a three-year span, he'd be ranked higher than this. But the Nets went 12-70 last year, and they're currently 9-25. I like Harris's talent, but he's got to start winning some games to get back in the top 50.
63) Trevor Ariza, NO
His career hit a peak two years ago, when he played an integral role in the Lakers 2009 Championship. He provided outside scoring and lockdown defense and emerged as an all-around stud in the making. L.A. rewarded Ariza by sending him to the Rockets, and replacing him with crazyman Ron Artest. Ariza flopped in Houston, while the Lakers won another title. Then Ariza was sent to the Hornets in a four-team trade, and now shoots about 38% from the field and 25% from downtown - numbers that warrant a seat on the bench. However, Ariza deserves a spot in the top 65 because he is capable of defending the opposing team's best player - a challenge that he's embraced since the '09 playoffs. His 1.68 steals per game are 12th in the NBA, and he's a big reason why the Hornets have the NBA's second best defense.
62. Andrea Bargani, TOR
The 7-foot Italian was picked #1 overall in 2006, and was believed to be the next Dirk Nowitzki. That hasn't exactly happened. But statistically, this is by far his best season, as Chris Bosh's exit to Miami left the job wide open. Bargani has excellent post moves and a solid outside shot, but leaves a lot to be desired on the defensive end. 5.6 rebounds per game isn't good enough for a 7-foot player. Like many other European players, he's just not aggressive enough.
61. Jason Terry, DAL
Despite being the second best player on the Mavericks, Terry comes off the bench. It's the same strange phenomenon that brought Al Harrington off the bench for the Pacers and Ginobili for the Spurs. My only explanation is that those teams have some personal interest in winning the Sixth Man of the Year award.
60. Brandon Jennings, MIL
The sophomore point guard is currently dealing with a broken foot, but should be back later in January. Last year he exploded onto the scene with 55 points in his 7th career start, and led the surprising Bucks into the playoffs. Expectations were high this season, and although he was scoring 18 per game along with 6 assists before the foot injury, the Bucks weren't winning. They were supposed to content for the Central Division, and instead they're struggling to stay in the playoff picture. Jennings has a long way to go, but he's an Iverson-like talent.
59. Andre Iguodala, PHI
Iggy has been the Star Player on a Bad Team for a six seasons now, and it's finally time to make a change. He's proven that he'll never be the star on a good team, but time will tell if he could be a solid sidekick. He'll surely be off the Sixers by next season. His scoring (and playing time) have dropped this year, but he's still putting up 6 rebounds and 5 assists along with 1.5 steals, numbers that have been consistent his entire career. But Philly hasn't finished above .500 since drafting Iggy in 2004, and that's all that matters.
58. Antwan Jamison, CLE
Jamison's inconsistency and overall mediocrity is largely to blame for why LeBron left. He spent seven seasons trying to make Cleveland a championship team without a legitimate #2 guy. When the team traded for Jamison, it was more of an insult to LeBron than anything else. "Really, THIS is the best you could get me?" A washed-up, injury-prone, outside-shooting big man? Now, Jamison leads the 8-32 Cavs with about 16 points per game.
57. Al Jefferson, UTA
Two years ago I ranked Jefferson the 17th best overall player, and I thought his arrow was pointing up. He was one of the league's best post players, averaging 21 and 11 with 2 blocks. Now he's scoring just 16 per game with the worst shooting percentage of his career, and he's allowed Paul Millsap to be the Jazz's dominant post player on offense. But in terms of a post defender, it still doesn't get much better than Jefferson.
56. Joakim Noah, CHI
Would have probably been ranked higher before the thumb injury which sidelined him for the past 3+ weeks. He's an elite hustle/rebounder/defender with a knack for making big plays in the clutch. He's also one of the ugliest people to ever live on planet earth.
55. Stephen Curry, GS
Last year's Rookie of the Year runner-up, Curry had a tough task living up to his awesome rookie season (17.5 points, 5.9 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.9 steals); but he's pretty close to replicating those numbers across the board. It's especially impressive when you consider that he's being asked to play point guard and distribute the ball, when he clearly should be a spot-up shooter. Curry is a fantasy basketball dreamboat, but in real life ... he's 185 pounds of defensive liability. One of many reasons why the Warriors won't be anywhere near the playoffs.
54. Luis Scola, HOU
The Argentinean monster has replaced Yao Ming admirably over the past 3 seasons. This is his best year yet, with 20 points and 9 boards along with a 51% shooting percentage. He’s a hustle machine and could easily be the third best player on a championship team. I’m not convinced he deserves the All Star hype he’s getting, but you definitely could do worse at starting center.
53. Elton Brand, PHI
He’s been called the Worst Free-Agency Signing of all time, although I think #46 on this list dethroned him this past summer. Brand is currently being paid $16 million a year by the Sixers … and instead of the 24 points, 10 rebounds and 2.5 blocks that he averaged with the Clippers, he now puts up a lazy 15 and 8, with half as many blocks and a much lower shooting percentage. He’s content to jack up mid range jumpers and stay out of the paint. But at least he’s actually playing this year. He spent the last two seasons in Philly getting paid $30+ million to sit on the bench with various injuries. Brand is living proof that (enormous contract) + (convenient injuries) + (uninspired play) = a GM’s worst nightmare. Speaking of which…
52. Ron Artest, LAL
Can you believe he’s rebounded (no pun intended) from the Malice at the Palace incident to re-become one of the league’s best defensive players? If you had told me back in 2004 that Artest would still be good in 6 years and the entire Pistons team would be worthless, I would have laughed. Damn. I will now weep bitterly in the coat closet.
51. John Wall, WAS
He’ll finish second in Rookie of the Year voting, but with 16 points per game, 9 assists, and 1.8 steals, Wall has lived up to the immense hype. Now, with Gilbert Arenas traded to Orlando, Wall has the opportunity to shoulder the scoring load in Washington, and should be well over 20 ppg next season. Two things are troubling, though: the awful shooting percentage (40.1%), and the myriad of injuries. He’s already missed roughly a third of the season with knee problems, and he’s only 20 years old.
50. David West, NO
He’s replaced Amare Stoudemire as the league’s premiere Big Guy Who Benefits From Playing With An Elite Point Guard. I have no idea how good West would be without CP3. Probably pretty average. But since Paul was drafted, West averages about 19 a game. He’s not a great rebounder or defender, but that’s Okafor’s territory. West’s job is the pick-and-roll offense, and he’s very good at it.
49. Marcus Camby, POR
Another year, another 11 rebounds and 2 blocks for one of the most consistently great defensive players of our generation. Last year he ranked #48. This year he’s #49. Talk about consistency. Camby ranks fifth among active players in career rebounds (8,675) and third in blocks (2,199).
48. Mo Williams, CLE
LeBron leaving essentially turned Mo from a shooting guard to a point guard, and he’s averaging a surprising 7.3 assists along with 15 points. But let’s not kid ourselves. If the best player on your team is Mo Williams, you’re probably winning less than 20 games (they’re on pace for 16).
47. Jameer Nelson, ORL
I’ve always thought of him as a Poor Man’s Chauncey. He’s strong for a point guard, shoots an accurate deep-ball, and focuses on distributing to the wings and the big guy. He’s not half the defender Chauncey is (or should I say, was), but he’s a top 10 pure point guard offensively, and he is really the only consistent shooter on Orlando’s 25-13 team..
46. Joe Johnson, ATL
It’s very convenient when players with $119 million dollar contracts miss 2 weeks because of minor elbow injuries. Also convenient when their PPG and RPG suddenly drop to the lowest they’ve been in 6 years, and they shoot the worst three-point percentage in the entire NBA. He’s a leading candidate for worst contract in NBA history. So why does JJ come in at #46? Because only 7 other guys average an 18-5-4 or better, and they’re all ranked in the top 20.
45. Zach Randolph, MEM
The former Spartan and Jailblazer has reinvented himself in Memphis as one of the few dominant inside players on both ends of the court. He’s fourth in the NBA in double-doubles with 21 (in 35 games), he’s third in rebounding, and most importantly, he’s staying out of trouble.
44. Raymond Felton, NYK
His career is following the Chauncey Billups Path – top 5 draft pick, considered a bust after 5 disappointing years on losing teams, and then found a new home. In New York, Felton is now scoring 18 per game with 9 assists and shooting 90% from the line. Very Chauncey-esque numbers. Now he’s just got to win an NBA Finals MVP to complete the process.
43. Eric Gordon, LAC
Currently tenth in the NBA in scoring, and that’s in spite of shooting the second-worst 3PT% in the NBA. As his 3-pt percentage slowly creeps up this year (and it will), his 24 points per game might inch closer to 26 or 27. He’s a no-doubt-about-it future All Star.
42. Kevin Martin, HOU
In his first full season with the Rockets, K-Mart is putting up nearly 23 points per game in just 31 minutes per game– giving him the second best points-per-48 ratio in the NBA. Shooting 43% from downtown certainly helps. So does leading the NBA in free throws made. But Houston is far from the playoffs so leading them in scoring doesn’t mean much. In case you’re wondering - the best points-per-48 belongs to Kobe.
41. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR
With Brandon Roy’s meniscus busted and possibly needing surgery, Aldridge has stepped up and currently has Portland fighting for the 8th seed. He’s easily having the best season of his career, and has accomplished the rare feat of becoming more effective and more efficient at the same time. He’s really the team’s only weapon on offense, unless you count Wesley Matthews as an offensive weapon. I don’t .
40. Paul Millsap, UTA
Went from incredibly underrated to mildly overrated to now again being underrated. He’s basically Jason Maxiell with consistency and better offense. Averages 18 and 8 and shoots 55% from the field in his first year as a starter. He and Al Jefferson form one of the best frontcourts in the NBA. He runs the pick-and-roll with Williams as well as Boozer did.
39. Lamar Odom, LAL
Very Shane Battier-esque, Odom does a little bit of everything without doing too much. He ranks third on the Lakers in scoring, second in rebounding, third in assists, and third in blocks, all while shooting a sparkly 57% from the field. He’s one of the best 6’10” ball handlers in the NBA.
38. Michael Beasley, MIN
The former #2 overall pick is finally living up to expectations, scoring 21 ppg with 6 rpg in his first year with the T-wolves.. But I distinctly recall the 2008 NBA Draft, hearing Beasley compared to Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan, but with more athleticism. He’s not quite there yet. More like a young Antonio McDyess.
37. Al Horford, ATL
One of the best up-and-coming big men in the league. Shoots a great percentage from the field and the free-throw line, and is athletic enough to guard any player on the floor. The Hawks are the only team in the NBA which can seamlessly switch defenders on picks, because of the incredible speed and athleticism of Horford and Josh Smith. He’s not a bad rebounder either, with 9.9 per game despite being only 6’10”.
36. Monta Ellis
Last year, Ellis finished sixth in the NBA in scoring with 25.5 per game, and led the entire NBA in minutes. This year, he’s third in scoring (25.6) and again first in minutes. So why doesn’t he crack the top 35? Because I value wins. And the Warriors win about 35% of their games. But hey, maybe Joe Dumars will make a move and bring Ellis to the Pistons. After all, he’s a shoot-first 2 guard with no sense of team, and you can never have too many of those!
35. Kevin Garnett, BOS
The perennial enigma. He’s sort of the LaDanian Tomlinson of basketball. You keep waiting for him to be washed-up, but you’re never really sure. Some would argue that he’s been Boston’s MVP this season, but I think he’s their fourth best player. I’ll keep him here to be tentatively safe.
34. Brandon Roy, POR
His career has been a quiet tragedy. Just last year I ranked him 11th overall. He was ascending into superstardom. Now, the Blazers aren’t sure if he’ll play another minute this season, or even next season. His knee injuries have snowballed into calamity. I would still want him on my team, simply with the hope that he would regain full strength. When healthy, he’s as dynamic a guard as there is, with the ability to score or pass from anywhere and defend anyone from position 1 to 3. But he just can’t stay healthy.
33. Rudy Gay, MEM
In his fifth year with the Grizzlies, Gay is averaging career-bests in the eight most important statistics: points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, FG%, FT%, and 3PT%. But the team’s winning percentage (.429) is slightly lower from last year’s (.488), and the Grizz have never made the playoffs since Gay joined the team. He’s well on his way to being the second coming of Iguodala.
32. Chauncey Billups, DEN
Steadily declining and now muddled in trade rumors, Billups’s career has become something of a shame for those of us who miss the glory days of 2004. He can still knock down the three and he’s still a great passer, but any semblance of speed that he used to have is gone. His athleticism is disintegrated. He’s a 34 year old in a 44 year old’s body.
31. David Lee, GS
You would think that a terrific rebounder on the team that misses the most shots per game would make for a historic season, or at least a repeat of last year’s 12 rebounds a game, but instead Lee is only averaging 9.6 boards in his first year on Golden State. His scoring is down by 5 per game, too, and the field goal percentage has dropped from 54% to 47%. Just not a good fit. Adding a guy who can’t play defense to a team that doesn’t play defense apparently wasn’t a smart move. This year, Lee lost his crown as Best American-Born White Guy in the NBA.
30. Tony Parker, SA
It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Parker. No, his stats are good, and his team has the best record in the NBA, and he’s having his best season ever defensively. But amidst all the Spurs’ winning, Parker lost his desperate housewife, Eva Longoria. They are currently in the process of being divorced.
29. Ray Allen, BOS
At age 35, Allen just seems to keep getting better and better. Or at least staying the same, which is still impressive. He’s attempted over 6,000 three-pointers in his 14 year career (second most ever) and somehow is shooting the best percentage of his career with 35 year old legs. His free-throw percentage is a glittery 89%, as usual. Oh, and at some point in the next 15-20 games, he figures to break Reggie Miller’s record for the most three-pointers made. He needs 34 more, and averages 2.2 per game. He’ll hold on to that record for a long while, because there isn’t a challenger in sight. The other active players on the list (Stojakovic, Billups, Kobe, Kidd, Nash) are all too old.
28. Gerald Wallace, CHA
A better fantasy basketball player than real basketball player, G-Wallace is one of the most well-rounded players in the league. 16 points, 8 board, 3 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.5 blocks … but this year his percentages are way down and he’s missed 9 games with an ankle injury. Defensively, he’s one of the best small forwards alive, but his offensive game could use a lot of work.
27. Brook Lopez, NJ
Weird year. He averaged 21 points and 7 rebounds through October and November, and since that point averages more like 14 and 5. Last year he did almost the same thing. He might be schizophrenic. If Carmelo joins the Nets, that will allow Lopez to play a supporting role, which is probably what he needs.
26. Danny Granger, IND
His career is sort of at a crossroads. Keep trying to be ‘the guy,’ averaging 20+ on a crappy team, or get yourself traded to a legit contender and morph into a sidekick while your stats sink? If he cares about money, he’ll keep being ‘the guy.’ Hopefully he cares more about winning, because on a good team he could be one heck of an asset.
25. Manu Ginobili, SA
He’s averaging career highs in points, FT%, 3PTs, steals, and assists, and is a prominent reason for the Spurs league-best 33-6 record. Some have even called him an MVP candidate. And he used to come off the bench. How stupid.
24. Josh Smith, ATL
One of the league’s best shot blockers and best all-around defensive players, and his offensive game continues to improve. He’s got to stop jacking up threes though.
23. Andrew Bogut, MIL
First in blocks, sixth in rebounds, and coming off a 27 rebound game against Miami a couple weeks ago. The former #1 pick is officially no longer a bust!
22. Chris Bosh, MIA
His fall out of the top 20 has been one of the most important basketball stories of the season. It could be the biggest reason why Miami doesn’t win the championship this year, though I still think they will. But everyone expected Miami to have three superstars; instead they have two superstars and one quasi-kind-of-nervous-star. Bosh looks awkward, timid, and completely out-of-place. The look on his face says, “I can’t believe everybody hates me so much! I’m a nice guy, damn it. UGH, I knew I should have gone to Chicago….”
It was a given that his PPG and RPG would drop, but how in the world does acquiring LeBron and Wade as teammates cause your FG% to drop??? That makes no sense whatsoever. Drafting Bosh with the 11th overall pick in my fantasy basketball draft was one of the worst decisions I made in 2010.
21. Tim Duncan, SA
Not since John Stockton and Jerry Sloan has there been a more perfect coach-teammate marriage than the one between Duncan and Popovich. Duncan continues to be the most consistent superstar of our generation, and despite career-lows in minutes and points, he’s leading the Spurs on a 68-win pace. If they lock up the #1 seed in the playoffs it will be interesting to see if they can hold off the Lakers.
20. Carlos Boozer, CHI
Missed the first month of the year with a broken hand, then came back just in time for Joakim Noah to break his thumb. While the two were together, Chicago won 7 straight. The Eastern Conference better watch out.
19. Tyreke Evans, SAC
Everyone knows by now about Tyreke’s rookie season, how he averaged a 20-5-5 and was only the fourth rookie ever to do that, and the other three were LeBron, MJ, and Oscar. That’s old news. Now it’s becoming clear that a 20-5-5 might be his ceiling. He’s probably not going to evolve into a 29-7-7 guy like LeBron or a 33-8-7 guy like Michael. This year he’s actually down to 17-4-5, and it’s starting to look like his rookie year might have been a semi-fluke. He’s still great, don’t get me wrong, but he doesn’t appear to be skyrocketing like a 20-5-5 rookie should.
18. Kevin Love, MIN
Just weeks prior to the tipoff of NBA season, I nonchalantly proclaimed that Love would lead the NBA in rebounding. I drafted him 31st overall in my fantasy league. Well, he’s not just leading the league in rebounding. He’s freaking embarrassing everybody else involved.
Love has 7 games of 20 or more rebounds this year (including a whopping 31 back in November). Nobody else has more than 3. He put up 43 points and 17 rebounds against Denver, and then 35 and 15 against Charlotte. Then there was the 23-24, the 32-22, and three other times where he had at least 20 and 20.
Oh, and he also shoots 87% from the free-throw line and 43% from downtown – both top 5 marks in the NBA among big guys. He leads the NBA in double-doubles (and has 25 straight) and is getting better statistically as the season progresses. As I said, I drafted him 31st overall. He currently ranks #3 in standard fantasy basketball scoring. I’m probably a genius.
One last stat - If Love maintains his 15.8 rpg mark (and he will), it will be the best single-season RPG mark since Dennis Rodman back in 1997. So, yeah. Best American-Born White Guy in the NBA, hands down.
17. Russell Westbrook, OKC
A candidate for most improved player, Westbrook continues to make huge strides each season and is now a bona fide top 20 player and top 5 point guard. He’s one of the best “all-around” players, in the purest sense of the word. He’s a double-double machine, whether it’s points-assists or occasionally points-rebounds. He’s basically a younger, more athletic Jason Kidd, without the superhuman court vision, but with a competent jump shot and much better defense. He’s up to 22.2 points per game (2nd among PGs, 12th overall) and 8.3 assists (9th overall), along with 5.1 rebounds (1st among PGs) and 1.93 steals (4th overall). His FT% and FG% are both currently career highs, and he complements Durant so well that it’s scary.
16. Paul Pierce, BOS
Steady scoring, solid defense, well-rounded game. More of the same from Pierce. It’s worth noting that he’s shooting better than 50% from the field for the first time in his career, and also a career-best from the FT line. It’s been nothing but good since last year’s All Star game, when Pierce proclaimed himself “one of the greatest shooters in NBA history.” Hmm… I think 50 or 60 other players might take exception to that.
15 Steve Nash, PHO
In his first year post-Amare, Phoenix has fallen behind Memphis and Houston and currently sits at 11th in the West. For only the second time in 8 years, they’ll likely miss the playoffs.
But I don't blame Nash. He's still one of the best point guards, even at 36 years old. He's putting up almost 11 assists with no great teammates, and shouldering the scoring load when necessary. His complete lack of a big man hasn’t taken away from his assists numbers, but it has kept the Suns from being competitive. Sorry, Robin Lopez. I had big hopes for you, but your ridiculous white-man afro and that fact that you’re dating Michelle Wie just isn’t getting it done.
14. Blake Griffin, LAC
Griffin was drafted #1 overall in 2009, but missed the entire season with a crappy knee injury. People started calling him another typical Clippers bust. But we had no idea what was coming.
This year, technically Griffin’s rookie season, the 21 year old has been an absolute freak of nature, and quickly vaulted into the upper echelon of NBA talent. He has simply been one of the best rookies of all time, and secured a Rookie of the Year landslide back in November when he scored 44 on the Knicks. Here are some numbers to put Griffin’s historically good season in perspective:
Since 1990, only two rookies have averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds, and both are first ballot Hall of Famers. Their names, in case you’re wondering, are Tim Duncan and Shaquille O’Neal. Duncan averaged 21.1 and 11.9, and Shaq 23.4 and 13.9. They went on to win a combined 8 NBA championships and 6 MVPs, with 27 combined All Star appearances.
Griffin is currently the third rookie since 1990 to average a 20 and 10. In fact, he’s actually averaging a 21.9 and 12.7. And he has twice as many assists per game as either Shaq or Duncan had in their rookie campaigns.
He’s become perhaps the Most Fun to Watch player in the NBA, and will become even more adored after he wins the Dunk Competition in February (and he will win). His current streak of double-doubles is at 26 games. He’s also got the best dunk of the year, and probably the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best dunks as well. You should definitely watch this highlight video. *EDIT* Griffin just scored 47 points last night, the most points any player has scored this season.
13. Pau Gasol, LAL
Griffin is more dynamic, more athletic, and more fun, but Gasol gets the nod for the better big man in LA because of his well-roundedness and outside shot. He’s got more assists per game than any other center or power forward, and actually ranks eighth in blocks. So much for the soft, European image. He’s also sixth in rebounding, which is impressive when you consider that he plays less than 30 minutes a game, since the Lakers win so many blowouts. With 18.4 points per game, Gasol ranks 30th in overall scoring, but of the 29 players ahead of him only three (Nowitzki, Howard, Griffin) have better field goal percentages.
12. Rajon Rondo, BOS
Last year Rondo made the leap to officially become Boston’s best player. He led the NBA in steals and was 4th in assists. (It’s hilarious that people still call Garnett, Allen & Pierce the “Big Three.”) In the playoffs Rondo made a considerable push towards becoming the NBA’s best point guard, averaging 15.8 points, 9.3 assists and 5.6 rebounds in 24 playoff games, including the famous 29-13-18 game against Cleveland in which LeBron officially gave up and packed his bags for Miami. Just as Kevin Love stole the rebounding crown away from Dwight Howard early in the year, Rondo took the assists category away from Nash and Paul with a fury. Four games into the season Rondo was already averaging 17 assists, and he hasn’t looked back yet.
But one thing is holding Rondo back, and keeps him out of the top 10. A pretty important part of basketball called scoring. With just 10.9 PPG, and an abysmal 46% free-throw percentage, Rondo is much more likely to be the next Jason Kidd then the next Isaiah Thomas. How can someone be so good at basketball, and shoot just 46% from the line? Bizarre.
11. Amare Stoudemire, NYK
I’ll admit, I was skeptical. When Amare went to New York and couldn’t recruit LeBron to join him, I thought his season would go in the tank. Part of the reason it hasn’t is brilliant coaching, and a big part of the credit belongs to Felton, Chandler, Gallo, and rookie Landry Fields. But let’s give Amare the credit he deserves. If the season ended today, he’d probably win MVP.
However, the season doesn’t end today, and the Knicks are just 6-8 since their 16-9 start to the season. Maybe it was a fluke. Maybe they’ll end up with the 6 or 7 seed and get swept in the first round. Amare still ranks 2nd in scoring this season, 3rd in blocks and 13th in rebounds, but his PPG is down from a gaudy 29.8 in December to a modest 24.3 so far in January. Great season, but I’d like to see some consistency before he cracks the top 10.
10. Carmelo Anthony, DEN?
Speaking of New York, Carmelo is so engulfed in trade rumors that it’s hard to judge the kind of season he’s actually having on the court. It’s likely that by the time I finish this sentence he’ll be on either the Nets or Knicks, but who knows. He’s a great talent and will play phenomenally for whichever team he gets traded to, so I’ll rank him 10th. Should be higher, but a few young players have leaped past him this year.
9. Dwayne Wade, MIA
Speaking of douche bags … wait, I wasn’t speaking of douche bags? Oh, never mind. D-Wade, AKA Flash, AKA LeBron’s bitch, AKA whatever you want to call him, is an overrated punk who puts up incredible stats but I wouldn’t trust to win an important game in the clutch nearly as much as I’d trust the other 8 guys on this list, and probably a dozen others. He’s just overrated. I don’t care who disagrees with me, it’s my list.
8. Deron Williams, UTA
For years I referred to Williams as “The NBA’s Best Kept Secret.” I don’t think it’s a secret anymore. The dude is just flat-out incredible. He’s like Chauncey in his prime, but with much more athleticism and a smoother mid range shot. Most importantly, he’s a winner. The pieces in Utah have changed over the past 5 years, but Williams makes sure they keep winning. Currently they’re tied for 3rd in the West. And Williams is the only reason.
7. Chris Paul, NO
It’s amazing that CP3 is still on the Hornets, after a much-publicized summer in which he announced his plans to be traded. Paul’s numbers are slightly down across the board, but that relates to his lack of aggressiveness on offense. Over the past 4 seasons his FG attempts per game have been 13.6, 16.1, 16.1, and 14.2. This year, just 11.3. As a result, he’s scoring only 16.5 per game, the lowest total since his rookie year. He’s also under 10 assists/game for the first time since 2007. I don’t know what’s up with him. I guess he, like Carmelo, is just waiting for a change of scenery.
6. Dwight Howard, ORL
Still the NBA’s best big man, but no longer a lock for Defensive Player of the Year. That award might go to either Bogut, Josh Smith, or Artest. Howard currently ranks 2nd in rebounding and 5th in blocks, which means the streak of winning both categories will end. His free-throw percentage continues to be his Kryptonite, as he shoots just 58.9% from the line. That’s particularly important because Howard leads the NBA in free-throws attempted.
5. Derrick Rose, CHI
Probably the biggest surprise on this list, but Rose proved he belongs in the top five last week when he single-handedly beat Wade and the Heat with 34 points, including 11 in the fourth quarter. He’s endured injuries to Boozer, Noah, and now Boozer again, and maintained a 24.5 scoring average at just 22 years old. He’s got 8 assists per game, along with 4.5 rebounds, and has made the very unexpected jump from a fringe-top 10 point guard to best overall point guard in just one unbelievable season. Apologies to Williams and Paul and Rondo, but they don’t have the dominant offensive prowess of Rose. Chicago has a 10 game lead in the Central Division, and remember, Boozer and Noah have both spent over a month in street clothes. That team is going to be scary good for a long time.
4. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL
Forget ‘Best White Guy in the NBA.’ That’s a lock. Dirk is on his way to claiming a spot among the Top Five White Guys of all Time. (The list goes like this: #1 Larry Bird; #2 Jerry West; #3 Bob Cousy; #4 John Stockton; #5 John Havlicek; #6 Pete Maravich; #7 Kevin McHale, #8 Steve Nash…) I know this list is supposed to reflect 2010 and not be a lifetime achievement thing, but Dirk is averaging 23+ points for the 7th straight year and that’s pretty impressive. If he plays three more seasons at this pace, he’ll be in the top 10 in NBA history in points scored. Remember, he’s only 32 years old. And he’s a jump shooter, so playing until he’s 38 isn’t out of the question.
But for strictly 2010 purposes, all Dirk is doing is shooting a career best 54% from the field and 87.6% from the FT line, while keeping Dallas at 4th in the West despite injuries and general mediocrity around him. They are a perennial contender and shouldn’t be taken lightly.
3. LeBron James, MIA
It’s been a horrible past twelve months for LBJ. To recap: quit halfway through the playoffs; staged an ego-maniacal press conference to announce his ‘decision’ which instantly vaulted him into the top 5 most hated athletes in America (along with a rapist, a dog-killer, a sex addict, and Terrell Owens); turned the Heat into the most universally-hated sports franchise since … well, ever; began the season 9-8 when some people (myself included) didn’t think they’d lose 8 games all year. His scoring per game has dropped 4.3 points and his MVP chances are decimated for this year and the next 5 years, thus crippling any chance he has of ever being in the Michael Jordan Discussion for greatest player ever. He’s widely considered Dwayne Wade’s sidekick (although LeBron is obviously the better player) and he’s fervently booed everywhere he goes, including his hometown, who greeted him with chants of “Ak-ron hates you” when he returned to Cleveland.
But there is good news for LeBron: He leads the entire league in one very important statistical category. That would be … turnovers.
2. Kevin Durant, OKC
Isn’t it weird that he’s leading the NBA in scoring and I’m somehow disappointed? Durant is averaging 28.5 ppg, but I honestly expected 32 or more. In 37 games so far, he’s scored at least 20 in 34 of them. He’s been at 30 or more in 15 contests. His percentages are just a hair lower than last season, and he’s attempted slightly fewer field goals and free throws per game. But let’s not forget that he’s well on his way to a second straight scoring title, and he’s not doing it selfishly. In the past 15 years of basketball, the way to win a scoring title was by taking the most shots. (See: Kobe in 2006, Iverson in 2004, TMac in 2002) But Durant is currently fifth in the NBA in field goal attempts, with only 21 more shot attempts than his own teammate, but still the leading scorer by a comfortable margin. A big part of that is Durant knows how to get to the free throw line, and when he gets there he’s near-perfect. No other small forward comes close to Durant’s 88.1% FT percentage. This year Durant has stepped up his game from a scoring machine on a losing team to a scoring machine on a winning team, and that’s one of the most difficult transitions for a star player to make. I can’t wait to watch OKC in the playoffs.
1. Kobe Bryant, LA
I could mention the effortless scoring, the steady winning, or the fact that Kobe is a legitimate contender for Defensive MVP. But only one statistic needs to be mentioned: two-time defending NBA Finals MVP. As Kobe sneaks into his mid 30s, this might be his last season at the #1 spot. But for this year, he’s definitely earned it.
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