I was as shocked as anybody when the Lions made Nick Fairley the #13 pick on Thursday night. I figured Prince was the sensible pick, but I expected a twist from Lions' management. I was prepared for Robert Quinn, Anthony Castonzo, even Jimmy Smith. But I never saw Nick Fairley coming.
At first, I hated it. But just like the finale of LOST, I am starting to understand and appreciate what happened. Slowly.
There are still parts of the pick that I vehemently disagree with. We'll get to those. But let's take a look at the entire Lions' draft, starting at the back.
In the seventh and fifth rounds today, Detroit took an undersized offensive tackle from South Carolina State and a former-running-back-turned-linebacker from Syracuse. The tackle (Johnny Culbreath) might stick around long enough to make the practice squad; the linebacker (Doug Hogue) will likely make the 53-man roster as a special teams player and 4th string OLB. The Lions had no other picks in the later rounds, because we traded them to Seattle in order to move up and grab Mikel (pronounced Michael) Leshoure, the running back from Illinois.
I love Leshoure as a player. If Jahvid Best gets hurt again, this pick will pay off. Even with Best healthy they will complement each other beautifully. I'm just not sure how I feel about Detroit trading up to grab a running back for the second straight year, given all the other needs and the lack of a free agency period.
Early in the second round, Detroit took Boise State's speedy received Titus Young, which was the biggest head-scratcher of all. I wondered if Matt Millen had somehow infiltrated the war room. Titus is a great talent, like Leshoure. I have no concerns about his ability. But that doesn't change the fact that Young, like Pettigrew two years ago, was a total luxury pick. When we picked Pettigrew, we claimed he was the best player available. The truth was, we just wanted to give Matthew Stafford another weapon. The positions we needed to address then were OLB, LT, and CB. The guys we passed on to pick Pettigrew: Michael Oher, Clay Matthews, and Vontae Davis. All three of these guys are very good pros, and Matthews is arguably the best OLB in the league. They all went within six picks of our tight end.
Luxury picks are great ... when you are the Falcons or the Colts. Not when you are 0-16.
Young just doesn't make sense on Detroit's team, despite the best arguments of Scott Linehan. He's a kick-returning specialist, but we already have Stefan Logan. He's a slot receiver who can run after the catch, but we already have Nate Burleson. Granted, Burleson is 29 and not the healthiest. But still. I fully expect Young to be more the next Derrick Williams: undersized, lousy hands, and not strong enough to get open. His scouting report says: needs to improve route-running. And that's our new slot guy? Really?
Young, like Pettigrew, was "supposedly" the best player available for the Lions at #44. But I believe that about as much as I believe Obama's birth certificate is genuine. I wonder who will be the 'Clay Matthews' that we missed out on this time... maybe Brandon Harris? Or Rahim Moore? The truth to this pick is, we wanted to take some more pressure off Calvin Johnson, because if Calvin keeps putting up great numbers, he'll be happy. And if he stays happy, he might stay on the Lions in 2013. And if he leaves the Lions, we are completely screwed. Thus, I don't completely hate this pick. In theory.
But the theory falls apart if Titus Young doesn't actually perform on the field, and sadly, I don't think he will. Why not? Because we still don't have a quarterback who can go through progressions, read defenses, and control the line of scrimmage. Well, actually we do have such a quarterback, but Shaun Hill remains the backup. As long as Stafford is under center, the offense will struggle to convert third-downs and score points in the two-minute drill.
Both of the Lions' offensive picks (Young and Leshoure) only work under one condition: Matt Stafford takes his head out of his ass and starts playing quarterback. 99.8% of football fans think Stafford is a stud. Every single freaking analyst says "If Stafford stays healthy, Detroit is a playoff team." What the morons don't realize is, Stafford has won less regular season games than Mark Sanchez has won playoff games. They don't realize that if you remove the flukish Cleveland game, Stafford threw 8 TDs and 18 interceptions as a rookie. They don't realize that the OPPOSITE is true: If Matt Stafford gets hurt, Detroit is a playoff team.
Anyway ... that's my thoughts on the 2nd - 7th round picks. It's weird that we took a running back and a receiver when we have such pressing needs at OLB and CB. But rest assured, I've watched every highlight video and read every scouting report on both Titus Young and Mikel Leshoure (and Hogue and Culbreath just for good measure) and the guys look awesome. Young is crazy fast, he can make people miss in the open field, and he's probably an improvement over Burleson. Leshoure has size, strength, and surprising speed. The comparisons to Rashard Mendenhall aren't completely exagerated. He's way better than Maurice Morris and a perfect complement for Jahvid Best.
Between Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Brandon Pettigrew, Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, and Titus Young ... let's just say there are no more excuses for Matt Stafford. The dude better produce.
Now, let's talk Nick Fairley.
Less than two months ago, Fairley was considered the favorite to be picked #1 overall. He helped Auburn dominate the BCS championship game, he won the award for best linemen in the country, and he was a physical freak. But then concerns about a bad Combine workout and 'maturity' issues surfaced, and he fell past DT-needing teams like Tennessee and Houston. If Detroit hadn't grabbed him, he might have kept falling into the 20s.
But we did take him, and Jim Schwartz couldn't be happier. Of course, Schwartz and Mayhew claim that Detroit stuck to its Big Board and took the best player available. If you believe that, then you also believe that LeBron James has never used steroids.
The only way that's true is if the Lions' Big Board was only comprised of defensive linemen. Because I realized something after this pick ... Detroit was going to take a D-lineman no matter what. That's why the Aldon Smith talk was heating up. That's why Detroit seemed shy on Amukamara. Schwartz made his mind up about this a long time ago. It was just a matter of seeing who fell to #13 between Fairley, Quinn, and Aldon.
Why do I believe this? Well, for a number of reasons, but the main reason is the same reason any of us do anything. Job security. Are you ready for this complicated conspiracy theory? Hold on to your seat.
Jim Schwartz knows his years of coaching the Lions are numbered. He knows the only way he keeps a head-coaching job is if Detroit wins a playoff game in the next few years, and he knows (he HAS to know) that he's hitched his wagon to a worthless QB. In my opinion, he's already planning for his next position.
Which of course will be as a defensive coordinator. So what is he doing? Padding the stats for his resume, of course.
It's no different than a player in a contract year. They know they need to perform in order to get paid, so they rack up the yards, work hard on every play, fight for every yard. Then, they get signed, and convienently get injured.
In aroundabout way, Schwartz is doing the same thing. He may not even know he's doing it; the whole thing might be somewhat subconcious. But by neglecting the offensive line and secondary, and drafting DTs in the first round for two straight years and running backs in the second round, Schwartz is creating a team which will:
A. record a lot of sacks
B. not give up many rushing yards
C. run the ball somewhat well, to control the clock, to limit the other team's offensive production.
Hey, I'm not saying those are bad things. Those are GREAT things. It's just ... we got those things last year with Suh and Best. Did we need to choose players who play those same exact positions again? Don't we have DT covered? I mean, don't we have the best DT in the NFC? Was that really something we needed to focus on?
What about ...
A. pass protection
B. having cornerbacks who can defend the pass
C. linebackers who can tackle
D. pass protection?!?
When the Lions were talking about Aldon Smith, I wrote a post titled "Prepare to be Disappointed." The premise was that Schwartz is obsessed with sacks, he loves the 'sexiness' of sacks, and he would forego more dire needs in order to achieve his goal: get more sacks. Little did I realize how right I was. Even with Aldon Smith off the board, he STILL went for a defensive lineman, even with the guy EVERYONE agreed we should have picked (Prince) amazingly still on the board. Even with the character concerns and general unlikeability of Nick Fairley. Despite legitimate concerns that Fairley is a one-year wonder and a lazy worker. He neglected the secondary and offensive line, just like 2009, and 2010. Anyone else seeing a pattern?
Detroit is trying to sell Fairley and Suh as the best DT combination in the league. I hope they are right. But I for one am going to wait until I see Fairley actually play. Here's what I know:
-Suh played 4 years at Nebraska. He was considered the best DT prospect in decades. Maybe ever.
-Fairley played 1 year at a community college, 1 year on Auburn's bench, and 1 year as a starter. If not for Cam Newton, Auburn wouldn't have won squat.
-Suh is a physical freak: 6'4", 318, and unprecedented explosiveness. His physical tools are off the chart. His vertical jump at the Combine was the best a DT had ever done. But it's not his physical tools that make him the best DT in the NFC. It's his passion for football, his insane work ethic, and most importantly, his unquenchable hatred for quarterbacks. (Just ask Jake Delhomme, Jay Cutler, Blaine Gabbert, Colt McCoy, or Cody Hawkins about that).
Fairley is also a physical beast: 6'3", 290, and a tad bit faster than Suh. He's not as explosive, not as strong, but maybe a bit quicker. But the difference comes off the field. Fairley isn't known as a work-out monster. Quite the opposite. He's knows as a 'Haynesworth,' which is a swear word in NFL locker rooms. He doesn't want to work his way into stardom; he already thinks he's a star. That's not gonna fly as a rookie, or anytime for that matter.
We're all hoping that Suh and VandenBosch will show Fairley what relentless work ethic looks like, and have him prepared for a season in which he isn't allowed to take plays off. We hope that Suh intimidates him and basically gives him no choice but to play his ass off every down. But can you really change a guy like that? I mean, when you give a 20 year old kid a contract for $30+ million, that's got to have some affect on how much he loves playing football, right?
I don't know guys. I think part of this pick was Schwartz being Schwartz, beefing up the defensive line so he can continue to be known as a "defensive genius." I won't be surprised in 4 years when he accepts the defensive coordinator role at Atlanta or San Diego. I also think part of this pick was just the Lions being unhappy with the cornerbacks and offensive linemen who were available, and choosing talent over need. That's part of it, but not all of it. I also think one other factor needs to be mentioned. And that is the all-important free agency period.
Here's where I being to like the Fairley pick, just as I began to slowly like the LOST finale.
The Lions know that they can't build a Super Bowl contender in the first three rounds of the 2011 draft. We could have picked Amukamara and an offensive tackle, but would we be that much better off? Nah, the truth is, to become a truly good team, we need some solid free agents, and we need to be great at something. Now we are. We have a GREAT defensive line. (Again, in theory).
But to attract free agents, and I'm talking about real free agents like Nnamdi Asomugha and Jonathan Joseph, not the riffraff that we find every year, you have to be a desireable destination. The Lions never get the top-end free agents, because honestly, "Who the heck would want to play for Detroit??" When we got Larry Foote, it was a sympathy thing; he was a Detroit native. And even he wasn't all that great, plus he left after one year.
But last year something changed. We nabbed VandenBosch and Burleson, two guys who actually belong on an NFL roster. For the first time in 18 seasons, the Lions actually have more than 5 NFL-caliber players.
And with the additions of Suh and Fairley, I suspect that Detroit becomes an even more desireable location for defensive free agents. What I'm getting at is, maybe we'll be able to fill the needs at OLB and CB with proven players, not castoffs. What I'm ultimately getting at is, of course, maybe this Nick Fairley pick helps us land Nnamdi Asomugha.
Call me delusional. Call me naive. But I would rather have Asomugha than all 32 picks in the first round combined. He's the Peyton Manning of defense. And he's on the market. And he's sick of losing.
More than that, he's sick of playing the style that Oakland made him play. He was forced to help in run support. He was asked to play man-to-man every play. He was used like a normal cornerback, not like the other-wordly talent that he is.
In Detroit, Nnamdi would have everything he wants. The respect of fans and coaches who appreciate how great he is. The green-light to play a zone or a man, whatever he wants. And best of all, a defensive line that can stuff the run AND create a pass rush, all without blitzing. Finally, Nnamdi won't have to tackle running backs, won't have to play on an island all game, and won't have to worry about whether his defensive teammates are actually trying.
Don't get me wrong - he's by no means a lazy player. He doesn't want to cop out of physical play. It's just that he embraces the challenge of shutting down opposing receivers, and he wants to focus on that. He wants to eliminate half of the field and force quarterbacks to throw places they don't want to throw, because he knows that will help his team win. Ultimately, he wants to win, and he wants to do it by dominating on defense. In Detroit, with Nnamdi on board, that just might happen.
If we miss Nnamdi, Bengals' corner Jonathan Joseph would be a great constellation prize. Plenty of others, including Champ Bailey and Brent Grimes, might be on the market. Between those guys, Detroit should be (or might be, I guess) able to find a huuuuge improvement over Alphonso Smith. Nick Fairley will help make that possible.
Then, there's the outside linebacker position, Detroit's most glaring weakness, namely because we have no outside linebackers. Free agents to be include: Stephen Tulloch, Barrett Ruud, Keith Bullock, and don't forget, Ernie Sims! The best choice and most realistic is Tulloch, who played with Schwartz in Tennessee and could be reuinted with his old friend KVB. Those rumors have already started swirling.
Imagine a defense with Suh commanding double teams, VandenBosch and Fairley tormenting quarterbacks, Asomugha shutting down #1 receivers, Tulloch and Levy petrolling the middle, and Delmas delivering bone-crushing hits to players after they go out of bounds. That unit would truly dominate the league. Even Matthew Stafford could win with that defense.
Now, imagine Detroit's roster as it is. No corners, no linebackers, and we're not sure how committed Fairley really is to working hard. It's gloomy, yes? That's why I can't wait for this lockout nonsense to end! I can't wait for Detroit to hurry up and get some free agents!
In the meantime, at least we drafted another wide receiver.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
What Has Changed in Two Days?
Pretty much everything. My mock draft is in complete shambles.
First off, Carolina has narrowed the list of potential #1 picks to four guys, none of which are Blaine Gabbert. So that means it's gotta be Cam Newton to justify the insane salary, which means Gabbert falls to either 5 or 7 or 8. A couple of Smiths (Aldon and Tyron) are becoming less popular, while another Smith (Jimmy) is flying up draft boards and threatening to go in the top 15.
Dallas is now locked in on J.J. Watt, and several teams are looking to trade up into the top 5. With the lockout situation messier than ever, teams are trying to not only meet needs but find top-level talent, even if it means trading up and giving up next year's picks.
So if I had to re-mock, which is pointless considering the real draft is tonight, I suppose it would look something like this:
1. Newton
2. Dareus
3. Miller
4. Green
5. Peterson (somebody trades up, maybe Philly?)
6. Jones
7. Gabbert (I'm not convinced San Fran even wants him, but I could be wrong)
8. Quinn
9. Watt
10. Someone stupid (Shanahan is a nut case)
11. Amukamara
12. Locker
13. Aldon Smith? Jimmy Smith? Castonzo? Maybe Bowers? I HAVE NO IDEA!
Yesterday I watched YouTube highlights and interviews of pretty much every player slated to go in the first 50 picks. I was very impressed by Bowers (who says his knee is 100%) and Castonzo (a super bright guy). I was extremely unimpressed with Aldon Smith, who predicted he would get 30 sacks last season (he got 6) and Jimmy Smith (who was compared to Nnamdi Asomugha in an interview, and responded by saying, "Okay, but I think I have better ball skills than him." Really?!? You just got compared to the best cornerback in the world and you didn't react humbly?). I also wasn't very impressed by Amukamara. He seems to be revelling in his own greatness a little bit. Tyron Smith strikes me as a clone of Gosder Cherilus.
If I had to guess, the Lions' Big Board probably looks something like this:
1. Von Miller
2. Patrick Peterson
3. Robert Quinn
4. Marcel Dareus
5. Prince Amukamara
6. Aldon Smith
7. Anthony Castonzo
8. Jimmy Smith
9. Tyron Smith
10. Da'Quan Bowers
11. J.J. Watt
12. Nate Solder
Barring an insane top 10, the first four guys will be gone. It's likely that Tyron and Prince will be gone too. I think this pick will come down to Aldon vs. Costanzo. Although Tom Kowalski believes the pick will definitely be defense, so maybe Jimmy Smith is ranking higher than Castonzo right now. I would love to see a shocker pick with Bowers, but Aldon probably ranks higher than Bowers for Detroit.
Whatever happens, there's about a 50% chance that we draft a Smith.
First off, Carolina has narrowed the list of potential #1 picks to four guys, none of which are Blaine Gabbert. So that means it's gotta be Cam Newton to justify the insane salary, which means Gabbert falls to either 5 or 7 or 8. A couple of Smiths (Aldon and Tyron) are becoming less popular, while another Smith (Jimmy) is flying up draft boards and threatening to go in the top 15.
Dallas is now locked in on J.J. Watt, and several teams are looking to trade up into the top 5. With the lockout situation messier than ever, teams are trying to not only meet needs but find top-level talent, even if it means trading up and giving up next year's picks.
So if I had to re-mock, which is pointless considering the real draft is tonight, I suppose it would look something like this:
1. Newton
2. Dareus
3. Miller
4. Green
5. Peterson (somebody trades up, maybe Philly?)
6. Jones
7. Gabbert (I'm not convinced San Fran even wants him, but I could be wrong)
8. Quinn
9. Watt
10. Someone stupid (Shanahan is a nut case)
11. Amukamara
12. Locker
13. Aldon Smith? Jimmy Smith? Castonzo? Maybe Bowers? I HAVE NO IDEA!
Yesterday I watched YouTube highlights and interviews of pretty much every player slated to go in the first 50 picks. I was very impressed by Bowers (who says his knee is 100%) and Castonzo (a super bright guy). I was extremely unimpressed with Aldon Smith, who predicted he would get 30 sacks last season (he got 6) and Jimmy Smith (who was compared to Nnamdi Asomugha in an interview, and responded by saying, "Okay, but I think I have better ball skills than him." Really?!? You just got compared to the best cornerback in the world and you didn't react humbly?). I also wasn't very impressed by Amukamara. He seems to be revelling in his own greatness a little bit. Tyron Smith strikes me as a clone of Gosder Cherilus.
If I had to guess, the Lions' Big Board probably looks something like this:
1. Von Miller
2. Patrick Peterson
3. Robert Quinn
4. Marcel Dareus
5. Prince Amukamara
6. Aldon Smith
7. Anthony Castonzo
8. Jimmy Smith
9. Tyron Smith
10. Da'Quan Bowers
11. J.J. Watt
12. Nate Solder
Barring an insane top 10, the first four guys will be gone. It's likely that Tyron and Prince will be gone too. I think this pick will come down to Aldon vs. Costanzo. Although Tom Kowalski believes the pick will definitely be defense, so maybe Jimmy Smith is ranking higher than Castonzo right now. I would love to see a shocker pick with Bowers, but Aldon probably ranks higher than Bowers for Detroit.
Whatever happens, there's about a 50% chance that we draft a Smith.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Mock Draft: The First 44 Picks
Enjoy.
1. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri (Panthers) – Carolina has to take a quarterback to justify the salary of a #1 pick, just as 8 of the previous 10 teams picking #1 have done. Gabbert gets the last-minute edge over Newton because he’s just ever so slightly more of an “NFL ready” quarterback. The truth is, Gabbert actually gets the edge over Newton because Carolina just doesn’t want to trust a black quarterback with an $80 million dollar contract. The Gabbert pick is almost an exact replica of the Lions’ Stafford pick two years ago: a 21 year old kid who wasn’t all that great in college gets insanely lucky because the best QB prospect stayed in school (Bradford in 09, Luck in 11), and despite concerns about accuracy and decision-making and leadership potential, they are made the #1 pick, even though nobody considers him even a top 10 overall prospect in the draft, but because they are considered the best quarterback available, even though someone picked later in the first round (Sanchez in 09, Locker in 11) will end up being the best QB in this draft class.
2. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama (Broncos) – Denver has a gaping hole in the middle of the defensive line following the release of DTs Justin Bannan and Jamal Williams. Broncos GM Brian Xanders raves about Dareus’s size and strength. This is the only pick that all three major ESPN Draft analysts (Kiper, McShay, Mayock) agree unanimously on. Dareus can play DT or DE in a 3-4 or a 4-3. He’s just a monster.
3. Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M (Bills) – A shocker from Buffalo which sets the tone for the draft. They are expected by everybody to take Cam Newton, but they are quietly confident in what they have with quarterbacks Fitzpatrick and Brohm. They need to get a surefire bust-proof player. Von Miller is considered the ‘safest’ pick in 2011, and his dominant presence on the edge will allow wounded Buffalo fans to finally forget about uber-bust Aaron Maybin. This pick is going to be every bit as brilliant as when Houston passed on Reggie Bush to take Mario Williams. Buffalo will try to justify passing on Newton by taking the best QB available in the second round.
4. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia (Bengals) –The “Cam Newton Watch” officially begins in ESPN world. I’m beginning to doubt that Carson will ever play another game for Cincy, but it’s too soon to move on to the next franchise quarterback until they know for sure. They’ll look for a QB in a later round, but can’t pass on a stud like Green, especially as TO departs.
5. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU (Cardinals) – Cardinals need a CB and Peterson is a once-in-a-decade stud. Easy pick. I can’t see Ken Whisenhunt having any interest in Cam Newton at all.
6. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama (Browns) –Mike Holmgren needs a #1 WR for Colt McCoy, and Jones just had an insane Pro Day workout. Holmgren loves receivers; he drafted 12 receivers during his 9 years in Seattle, more than any other position by far. You can’t run the West Coast offense without a true #1 receiving option, and Cleveland simply doesn’t have one. Jones can be a deep-threat and an over-the-middle threat, and I truly can’t see Holmgren doing anything else with this pick.
7. TRADE – San Fran was hoping for Peterson and they missed him. They wanted Gabbert but not Newton. They don’t like Amukamara enough to take him here. Fortunately, AJ Smith calls just in time, and they trade the pick to San Diego for picks #18 and #82.
7. Robert Quinn, DE, UNC (Chargers) – Smart move by Smith, who needs a 3-4 rush linebacker to replace Merriman. San Diego takes advantage of their stockpile of picks (5 in the first 3 rounds) and trades up for the guy they wanted, just like they did last year with Ryan Matthews.
8. Jake Locker, QB, Washington (Titans)- The headline on ESPN.com quickly becomes “Locker in a Shocker.” Everyone is blown away when Tennessee takes Locker over Newton. Mel Kiper’s head actually explodes on live TV. If this pick seems implausible, consider that Denver took Tebow last year with Claussen on the board. It’s perfectly reasonable. Tennessee needs a quarterback to build around; they have NO ONE. I highly doubt they'll spend this pick on Nick Fairley, as everyone believes. (More on that later) They are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL next year no matter who they draft, so they might as well bite the bullet and start the rebuilding process with Locker. New head coach Mike Munchak (who, ironically, was drafted with the #8 pick 29 years ago) needs to start rebuilding with some semblance of an offensive identity, and the word on the street is that he is very high on Locker, who has had several private workouts with the Titans. It’s easy to see why owner Bud Adams will pass on Cam Newton. He’s spent the last 5 years in a nightmarish world with Vince Young. Why would he want another scrambling black quarterback who won a national championship? Seems too much like deja vu.
9. Tyron Smith, OT, USC (Cowboys) – We’ve seen this move a bunch of times in recent years: owners give a huge contract to the franchise quarterback, the QB gets hurt, then the owner says, “Oh crap, I better protect this guy.” Romo spent most of last year sidelined with a broken collarbone, and Tyron Smith has evolved into this draft’s marquee tackle prospect.
10. TRADE – Washington doesn’t get any of the players they wanted (Quinn, Locker, Julio Jones), and the next players on their board are DEs who they feel they can still get 7 picks later. So they swap with the Patriots, who have six draft picks in the first three rounds. New England gives up the 17th pick and the 92nd pick to move up to pick 10 and select …
10. Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri (Patriots) – Another somewhat shocker, but Bill Belichick is a seriously smart dude. He knows what’s up. Aldon has consistently climbed draft boards and become the best 3-4 OLB outside of Quinn and Miller. He’s leaped passed guys like Watt and Jordan. Belichick knows that while Aldon might fall past the Texans at 11, he won’t fall past the gauntlet of teams 13-16 who all desire pass rushers. It’s the perfect time to trade up. Genius move.
11. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska (Texans) – Houston fans are so delusional. Every Texans fan page I’ve been to is obsessed with them drafting Patrick Peterson. Come off it. Unless you plan on trading up, which would probably cost you a second rounder, that’s not happening. But they do need a CB to fix the league’s worst pass defense, and although they don’t want to take CBs in the first round two consecutive years unless PP is on the board, they don’t really have any other options. All the elite pass rushers are gone, and they aren’t going to reach for Jordan or Watt when Amukamara is the best player available, and he fills a major need. It’s that easy. As a Lions fan, this is the part where I give up hope.
12. Cam Newton, QB, Auburn (Vikings) – It’s well known that the Vikings need a quarterback, and their new coach is actively looking for the ‘next Brett Favre.’ I’m sure they have Jake Locker’s name written down on several big boards, but they’ll be shocked to see Newton fall to them at pick 12, and Leslie Frazier will be excited enough to pull the trigger. New coaches love new quarterbacks. Newton wouldn’t be asked to do too much with AP in the backfield. It’s a perfect fit. And not a moment too soon, because Newton might fall out of the first round entirely if Minnesota doesn’t take him.
13. Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College (Lions) - With all the Lions’ top targets off the board, (Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Amukamara), they’ll do the smart thing and protect their $72 million dollar investment with a left tackle. Castonzo is a 6’7” beast with size, speed, and intelligence (he was a biochemistry major). He’ll play most of 2011 at right tackle, learning the ropes and putting on weight (he needs to gain about 15 pounds to withstand the beating from power rushers), and then he’ll move over to LT to begin the 2012 year. Lions insider Tom Kowalski has been saying all along that if Detroit doesn’t get the defensive player they hope for, Castonzo will be the constellation prize. Fans would love an offensive lineman. This might be a sneaky great pick.
14. JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin (Rams) – The Rams will try hard to trade up for Julio Jones, but Cleveland is not budging. This decision comes down to Watt and Corey Liuget. Rams’ management has been talking about Liuget for weeks, but it seems like a smokescreen to me. I think they are hoping teams will forget that they are in the market for a pass-rusher, and they’ll be delighted to get Watt, a massive and fast DE/OLB hybrid who could be very versatile in Spagnuolo’s defense.
15. DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson (Dolphins) – This pick is a total risk, but I wasn’t sure what other direction to go. We know that Bowers is going to fall because of the knee. Some scouts are afraid he’ll never be able to play in the NFL. Some think he might miss at least the entire 2011 season. But others think he’ll be ready to start the season. Who wants to take the risk on the prospect who was once considered a surefire top 3 pick? My guess is the drama-loving Dolphins. We know they are exploring all their defensive line options, and I was going to mock Nick Fairley here until I read a strange story about how Fairley refused to meet with the Fins’ management because he’s so confident that he’ll be picked in the top 10 (which is exactly why he won’t). But I like Bowers here, because Miami just seems like a team that would roll the dice. This is the ultimate risk-reward pick, but if it pays off and Bowers knee holds up, they just got the steal of the draft and an insanely good defense. They swung for the fences attempting to get Jim Harbaugh and they missed. I think they’ll swing big again here.
16. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue (Jaguars) – This pick comes down to three options: Kerrigan, Cameron Jordan, and trading down. The Jaguars (and especially their fans) really want a quarterback, and they have no delusions about trading up for one of the top 3 guys. The popular name in Jacksonville is Florida State’s Christian Ponder, a likely second rounder and a local hero who reminds some people of Aaron Rodgers. But this is too soon to select Ponder, and trading back for him isn’t their best option. Instead I think they’ll try to trade up in the second round to grab Ponder ahead of the Bills and Bengals. But for the #16 selection, I think they’ll pick Kerrigan slightly ahead of Jordan, for no other reason than Kerrigan is a better fit for the 4-3. Tough call though. Can you believe that Kerrigan is only the second Big Ten player to be drafted in the top 16?
17. Cameron Jordan, DE, California (Redskins) – Washington traded back from the #10 pick and picked up a third rounder in the process. Now they’ll use this pick to bolster a terrible defensive line. I don’t dislike Jordan for this pick, but I don’t see a lot of impact either. That defense is too much of a mess to be solved in the wake of Haynesworth’s departure. But Jordan can play DE in the 3-4 which fits his skill set perfectly.
18. Andy Dalton, QB, TCU (49ers) – When San Fran missed on Peterson with the 7 pick and traded back, they immediately began the frantic search to find a franchise quarterback for Jim Harbaugh’s new offense. Most people believe that Alex Smith will be back for a couple years to mentor a rookie, which pretty much crushes the idea of Kevin Kolb or Carson Palmer going to San Francisco. There’s no doubt that Harbaugh will take a quarterback in the first two rounds. It’s just a matter of when, and who. Pick #7 would be way to soon to reach for Dalton, but pick #18 makes sense, with plenty of QB-hungry teams coming up at the start of the second round. My hunch is that Harbaugh doesn’t even want Gabbert or Newton. He wants a QB who can move around and throw short passes with pinpoint accuracy. Dalton is a perfect fit. Jake Locker and Christian Ponder are also great fits for Harbaugh’s offense, but Dalton has a stronger arm and is a more proven winner than Ponder, and Locker won’t make it past pick 12. (Note: if Newton and Gabbert both go in the top 5 as most people expect, than San Fran will take Locker with the 7th pick, and San Diego will remain here at 18).
19. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA (Giants) – A lot of people expect the Giants to select an offensive tackle in the first round, but that’s actually not their biggest area of need. They need to find a replacement for 34 year old Keith Bullock, and at 254 pounds Ayers is big enough to play strongside LB in the 4-3.
20. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa (Buccaneers) – Tampa will try to trade up for an elite pass rusher, but San Diego and New England are able to make better offers and thus they get Robert Quinn and Aldon Smith. No sense in trading up for Watt or Kerrigan when Tampa can get a nearly identical prospect in Clayborn. The choice is going to come down to their Clayborn or OLB Justin Houston from Georgia. Clayborn is bigger and better suited for DE in the 4-3. Houston is more of a pure outside linebacker. Clayborn makes more sense for Tampa.
21. TRADE – Kansas City has a zillion enticing options here, and will choose to trade backwards and wait another ten picks or so. They like Carimi and Solder but also plenty of defensive linemen including Temple’s Muhammad Wilkerson and Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward. The team to trade with is Chicago, who desperately needs to address the offensive line and would love to leap in front of the Colts at pick 22 and do so. In exchange the Chiefs get Chicago’s #29 pick and a 3rd rounder.
21. Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin (Bears) – Chicago jumps ahead of the Colts in order to secure their franchise right tackle and protect Jay Cutler. It doesn’t matter, because the Colts wanted …
22. Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State (Colts) – It’s virtually a no-brainer for the Colts to take an offensive lineman and continue to keep Peyton Manning upright. They gave up way too many sacks last year. Colts’ management have been meeting with Sherrod for weeks.
23. Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado (Eagles) – Sort of an easy pick, but sometimes you don’t want to overthink common sense. Smith is a rising cornerback prospect who has the size and speed to be an elite shutdown corner. He might be in the conversation for the Lions at pick #13, but his ‘character concerns’ have probably knocked him out of the top 15. Speaking of which …
24. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn (Saints) – I can’t believe how far I have Fairley falling, just months after he was in the running for the #1 pick. A terrible Combine workout and glaring maturity issues have cost Fairley millions of dollars and about 20 spots in the draft. As Miami proves with pick #15, teams would rather have an injury risk than a character risk. Fairley has drawn comparisons to Albert Haynesworth for his dominance on the field and attitude off the field. He takes plays off and has a reputation for being a dirty player. Fairley is most commonly mocked to the Titans with the #8 pick, but I just can’t see Bud Adams taking a player who reminds anybody of Haynesworth, especially in the wake of drama with Pacman Jones, Vince Young, Randy Moss, and now Kenny Britt. The Titans can ill-afford to draft another head-case. They’ll be very happy to take Jake Locker at pick #8 and let Fairley free fall. He’ll find a home in New Orleans, though, who sorely needs to improve the middle of their defensive line and has the veteran leadership in place to cope with a potential nutcase.
25. Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple (Seahawks) – Possibly the steal of the draft thus far. Seattle can’t believe their luck as Wilkerson falls to them. They have the choice between Wilkerson and Corey Liuget from Illinois, but Wilkerson gets the nod because he’s a better fit in Casey Bradley’s 4-3 defense. He’ll fill the gap left by free agent DT Brandon Mebane. Don’t look now, but Seattle is piecing together a half-decent defense.
26. Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois (Ravens) – Baltimore has a lot of appealing options here, but just like last year when they stole Sergio Kindle in the second round, they’ll take the best player available despite their needs for a CB and OT. Aaron Williams from Texas and Cameron Heyward from Ohio State are intriguing, but it’s amazing that Liuget (pronounced ‘legit’) fell this far. He’ll jump right in to the DE spot in the 3-4 defense and replace Cory Redding.
27. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame (Falcons) – I tried to mock somebody else here, simply because every mock draft on the planet has Atlanta taking Rudolph and I just wanted to be different. But come on, with Tony Gonzalez nearing retirement and no receiving options behind Roddy White, Rudolph just makes tons of sense here. Tight ends in the first round are rare because they are a luxury for great teams with few needs. Of course, that’s why it was idiotic for Detroit to take Pettigrew three years ago when we could have drafted, oh I don’t know, Clay Matthews!. But Atlanta, unlike the 2008 Lions who went 0-16, is a great team. And Rudolph is considered the best tight end prospect in years. This is a luxury pick that is bound to happen.
28. TRADE – Surely New England won’t just stay here. With the Chiefs and Jets coming up soon and both teams needing interior linemen on the defensive line, Bill Belichick makes a couple calls and finds a suitor in Houston. New England moves back to pick #42 and picks up a third and fourth rounder in 2013.
28. Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State (Texans) – The Texans need to keep revamping their defense, and obtaining a powerful pass-rusher in Heyward is a great step. He should plug right in as a 3-4 DE in Wade Phillips’ system.
29. TRADE – The quarterback bonanza begins. With Ponder, Kaepernick, and Mallet still on the board, there are about 6 more teams that are looking for franchise quarterbacks. Many of those teams are drafting near the start of the second round. Let the trading begin. Kansas City traded back to this spot earlier, and now trades back again as they continue to amass picks. They’ll give this pick to the Cardinals, who are more desperate than anybody to find a quarterback. They’re willing to give up next year’s second round pick and a fourth rounder to move up from pick #38 and select …
29. Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State (Cardinals) – Once again, the Jaguars miss their guy. Last year, they wanted Tebow and were foiled when Denver traded up. The same happens this year. Jacksonville just isn’t real smart on draft day. Arizona, on the other hand, finds somebody to replace the poo-poo platter of Max Hall and John Skelton, and gives themselves a chance to keep Larry Fitzgerald happy before he hits the free agent market in 2012. Ponder is the fifth QB taken in the first round.
30. Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona (Jets) – The Jets claim that they will take the best player available regardless of position. In this case, that would be either Mike Pouncey or Nate Solder, two excellent offensive lineman who should be off the board by now. But Rex Ryan can’t resist the temptation to take a pass rusher. Reed is relentless, fast, and an ideal DE/OLB hybrid in the 3-4 blitz-heavy scheme. Because of his white skin and long blond hair, Reed draws plenty of comparisons to Clay Matthews. He won’t be that good, but he might be a steal at the end of round 1. In fact, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Lions reach for him.
31. Mike Pouncey, G, Florida (Steelers) – Last year, Pittsburgh took Maurice Pouncey with the 18th pick. He was their best offensive lineman, and a Pro Bowl center. This year, they’ll take Pouncey’s younger brother, also from Florida, and create the beginnings of an outstanding offensive line. As a major Steeler-hater, this pick scares me. I really want Pouncey to be gone, but I don’t see it happening. Interior offensive linemen just aren’t coveted. But in Pittsburgh, this will be the most celebrated pick since James Harrison picked off Kurt Warner in Super Bowl XLIII and ran it back 100 yards for the score.
32. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama (Packers) – This is what happens when there are too many good players in one draft - the Super Bowl champs get a Heisman-winning running back. Green Bay wants to improve its defensive front 7, particularly the DE position, but the prospect of finding a franchise running back is pretty appealing. Ingram would replace the injured Ryan Grant as Green Bay’s power back, allowing Brandon Jackson to play third downs and garbage time. James Starks played admirably for the Packers after Grant got hurt, but not well enough to prevent them from drafting a stud like Ingram. This is a luxury pick for a great team, and it makes them even scarier than they already are.
33. TRADE – With New England on the clock and the next two teams (Buffalo and Cincinnati) looking for quarterbacks, you can be assured of a trade here. Jacksonville is too depressed after losing Ponder to think straight, so Washington beats them to the phones and offers next year’s second round pick to move up 8 spots and grab …
33. Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada (Redskins) – A Mike Shanahan dream come true! Kaepernick has an insane 40 time (4.53, faster than Cam Newton) and the perfect skill set for Shanahan’s unique take on the West Coast offense. Shanny likes QB who can throw accurately on the run and outside of the pocket, and that’s exactly what Colin did in the Pistol formation at Nevada. He’s certainly a project player and wouldn’t start on day 1, but we all know how much faith (to a fault) Shanahan has in Rex Grossman. This doesn’t change my belief that Washington will be horrible and pick Andrew Luck #1 overall in 2012, but at least it will be fun to watch Kaepernick scramble around for a few weeks, and then debate all winter about whether Washington likes him enough to not take Luck #1 overall.
34. Nate Solder, OT, Colorado (Bills) – Buffalo could lament about the top six quarterbacks being off the board, and they could overreact by signing the brainless Ryan Mallet. But instead they’ll calmly continue to rebuild by adding the 6’8” monster from Colorado. Solder will play right tackle this year while putting on another 30 pounds in order to play left tackle in 2012. He’s a bargain pick here, and while Bills fans will be ticked that they didn’t pick a quarterback, they should realize how important this pick is to their future. There are simply more teams needing quarterbacks than there are quarterbacks. It’s a bizarre opposite of the 2010 Draft, when nobody wanted Jimmy Claussen. Look for Buffalo to add a guy like Nathan Enderle from Idaho or Greg McElroy from Alabama in the fourth or fifth round.
35. Ryan Mallet, QB, Arkansas (Bengals) – This might be a stretch, but I could see Marvin Lewis overreacting to the insane run on quarterbacks and securing the only potential starter left. Cincinnati probably feels pretty confident in their defense (at least compared to their offense) and will take the gamble on Mallet. His talent is certainly there; he might have a better NFL arm than anybody in this draft, including Gabbert. He can, as the scouts say, “make all the throws.” But the primary concerns are his intelligence, his leadership potential, and his accuracy. Mainly his intelligence. As in, most people think he’s on crack. Literally.
36. Justin Houston, DE, Georgia (Broncos) – After landing Dareus in the first round, Denver continues to fix its defense by adding the best passer rusher available. In John Fox’s new 4-3, Houston will play defensive end opposite Elvis Dumervil, and with Dareus now in the middle, that could be a dominant defensive line. If they can just keep Champ Bailey from leaving, Denver might improve from the NFL’s worst defense to a top 15 unit. That’s a big if.
37. Marvin Austin, DT, UNC (Browns) – Cornerback is still an issue to be resolved, but Mike Holmgren loves to collect big defensive linemen, and Austin is a top 10 talent who fell this far because of character concerns. He missed the entire 2010 college season because of a NCAA suspension, but his obvious skills have helped him skyrocket up draft boards over the past several months. He might even be picked ahead of Wilkerson and Liuget, though most teams will be worried about his character. Cleveland doesn’t have that luxury.
38. Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor (Chiefs) – After trading back twice and collecting three picks in the process, Kansas City gets the guy they almost picked in the first round anyway. Taylor is a prototypical 3-4 nosetackle, which is probably the biggest need for KC. At 335 pounds and 6’3”, Taylor will plug up the middle and allow the talented KC playmakers (Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson) to go to work. This is another defense that is quickly becoming good.
39. Allen Bailey, DE, Miami (Titans) – After securing Jake Locker with the 8th pick, the attention now shifts to the defense. Bailey is a pass rusher who could supplant free agent Jason Babin once he departs.
40. Aaron Williams, CB, Texas (Cowboys) – Jerry Jones can’t keep his mouth shut. All winter he’s been yapping about how he doesn’t need to improve the secondary. Of course, everybody knows that’s code for “We need a corner BAD.” Somehow, he gets lucky and Williams falls to the Boys at pick 40. They could have chosen Brandon Harris from Miami instead, but they need a safety too, and Williams has the flexibility to play either position. Great news for the Lions, who would love to land Harris.
41. Ben Ijalana, G, Villanova (Patriots) – Unable to find a suitable trading partner, New England is forced to make a pick here. Having already addressed the pass rush with Aldon Smith in the first round, they find a potential replacement for retired RG Stephen Neal in Ijalana, a left tackle in college but a future guard in the NFL. He’s about as quick as a 320 pound man can be, and fits the Belichick mold as a smart, team-driven player.
42. Stephen Paea, NT, Oregon (Texans) – With Detroit just two picks away, the Brandon Harris watch is on. Fortunately, Houston took a CB in the first round, and now needs to find a nosetackle for the new 3-4. Paea is a popular choice to the Texans by just about everybody. It makes perfect sense. Let’s not overthink it, it’s almost 11pm.
43. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh (Vikings) – Sidney Rice is an unrestricted free agent, Percy Harvin struggles from migraines, and Bernard Berrian is dead (metaphorically). Minnesota needs somebody for Cam Newton to throw the ball to, particularly in the red zone. The 6’5” Baldwin has the size and hands to be a dominant NFL receiver, but his speed is just average. They said the same thing about Larry Fitzgerald when he was coming out of Pitt. We’ll see.
44. Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (Lions) – With Costanzo in the first round, Detroit now must address the secondary. We can’t wait until the third round like we did last year. Amari Spievey didn’t exactly light up the field. But Harris has first-round talent, and could mature into a true shutdown corner. His height isn’t ideal, but he makes up for it with instincts and athleticism. He could become the best Detroit cornerback since Dre Bly.
There you have it. 44 picks, at least 3 of which are bound to be accurate. Here are a couple quick footnotes:
I realize that Cam Newton is probably going to go 1st, and that will throw off my entire mock draft. But I just don't want to accept it. It's insanity. It's sheer foolishness.
However, if Newton does go #1, Gabbert will go either 3, 4, 5, or 7, Locker will be gone by 10, and Dalton/Ponder will be both gone by 16. It will mess up everything I just worked on for hours. So let's just hope Carolina takes Gabbert.
If you're wondering who I think teams actually SHOULD pick, that's a whole different story. Let's just say I wouldn't have Newton or Gabbert in the first round. It's a good thing I'm not an NFL GM, because I would be fired. Either that or I'd win the Super Bowl every year. I'm not sure which.
Lastly, I just want to reiterate a few things:
-Tim Tebow still stinks.
-Let's not buy into the Jim Schwartz or Matthew Stafford hype until they win a few games.
-The Spurs are about to lose in the first round.
-My wife is pregnant.
1. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri (Panthers) – Carolina has to take a quarterback to justify the salary of a #1 pick, just as 8 of the previous 10 teams picking #1 have done. Gabbert gets the last-minute edge over Newton because he’s just ever so slightly more of an “NFL ready” quarterback. The truth is, Gabbert actually gets the edge over Newton because Carolina just doesn’t want to trust a black quarterback with an $80 million dollar contract. The Gabbert pick is almost an exact replica of the Lions’ Stafford pick two years ago: a 21 year old kid who wasn’t all that great in college gets insanely lucky because the best QB prospect stayed in school (Bradford in 09, Luck in 11), and despite concerns about accuracy and decision-making and leadership potential, they are made the #1 pick, even though nobody considers him even a top 10 overall prospect in the draft, but because they are considered the best quarterback available, even though someone picked later in the first round (Sanchez in 09, Locker in 11) will end up being the best QB in this draft class.
2. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama (Broncos) – Denver has a gaping hole in the middle of the defensive line following the release of DTs Justin Bannan and Jamal Williams. Broncos GM Brian Xanders raves about Dareus’s size and strength. This is the only pick that all three major ESPN Draft analysts (Kiper, McShay, Mayock) agree unanimously on. Dareus can play DT or DE in a 3-4 or a 4-3. He’s just a monster.
3. Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M (Bills) – A shocker from Buffalo which sets the tone for the draft. They are expected by everybody to take Cam Newton, but they are quietly confident in what they have with quarterbacks Fitzpatrick and Brohm. They need to get a surefire bust-proof player. Von Miller is considered the ‘safest’ pick in 2011, and his dominant presence on the edge will allow wounded Buffalo fans to finally forget about uber-bust Aaron Maybin. This pick is going to be every bit as brilliant as when Houston passed on Reggie Bush to take Mario Williams. Buffalo will try to justify passing on Newton by taking the best QB available in the second round.
4. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia (Bengals) –The “Cam Newton Watch” officially begins in ESPN world. I’m beginning to doubt that Carson will ever play another game for Cincy, but it’s too soon to move on to the next franchise quarterback until they know for sure. They’ll look for a QB in a later round, but can’t pass on a stud like Green, especially as TO departs.
5. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU (Cardinals) – Cardinals need a CB and Peterson is a once-in-a-decade stud. Easy pick. I can’t see Ken Whisenhunt having any interest in Cam Newton at all.
6. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama (Browns) –Mike Holmgren needs a #1 WR for Colt McCoy, and Jones just had an insane Pro Day workout. Holmgren loves receivers; he drafted 12 receivers during his 9 years in Seattle, more than any other position by far. You can’t run the West Coast offense without a true #1 receiving option, and Cleveland simply doesn’t have one. Jones can be a deep-threat and an over-the-middle threat, and I truly can’t see Holmgren doing anything else with this pick.
7. TRADE – San Fran was hoping for Peterson and they missed him. They wanted Gabbert but not Newton. They don’t like Amukamara enough to take him here. Fortunately, AJ Smith calls just in time, and they trade the pick to San Diego for picks #18 and #82.
7. Robert Quinn, DE, UNC (Chargers) – Smart move by Smith, who needs a 3-4 rush linebacker to replace Merriman. San Diego takes advantage of their stockpile of picks (5 in the first 3 rounds) and trades up for the guy they wanted, just like they did last year with Ryan Matthews.
8. Jake Locker, QB, Washington (Titans)- The headline on ESPN.com quickly becomes “Locker in a Shocker.” Everyone is blown away when Tennessee takes Locker over Newton. Mel Kiper’s head actually explodes on live TV. If this pick seems implausible, consider that Denver took Tebow last year with Claussen on the board. It’s perfectly reasonable. Tennessee needs a quarterback to build around; they have NO ONE. I highly doubt they'll spend this pick on Nick Fairley, as everyone believes. (More on that later) They are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL next year no matter who they draft, so they might as well bite the bullet and start the rebuilding process with Locker. New head coach Mike Munchak (who, ironically, was drafted with the #8 pick 29 years ago) needs to start rebuilding with some semblance of an offensive identity, and the word on the street is that he is very high on Locker, who has had several private workouts with the Titans. It’s easy to see why owner Bud Adams will pass on Cam Newton. He’s spent the last 5 years in a nightmarish world with Vince Young. Why would he want another scrambling black quarterback who won a national championship? Seems too much like deja vu.
9. Tyron Smith, OT, USC (Cowboys) – We’ve seen this move a bunch of times in recent years: owners give a huge contract to the franchise quarterback, the QB gets hurt, then the owner says, “Oh crap, I better protect this guy.” Romo spent most of last year sidelined with a broken collarbone, and Tyron Smith has evolved into this draft’s marquee tackle prospect.
10. TRADE – Washington doesn’t get any of the players they wanted (Quinn, Locker, Julio Jones), and the next players on their board are DEs who they feel they can still get 7 picks later. So they swap with the Patriots, who have six draft picks in the first three rounds. New England gives up the 17th pick and the 92nd pick to move up to pick 10 and select …
10. Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri (Patriots) – Another somewhat shocker, but Bill Belichick is a seriously smart dude. He knows what’s up. Aldon has consistently climbed draft boards and become the best 3-4 OLB outside of Quinn and Miller. He’s leaped passed guys like Watt and Jordan. Belichick knows that while Aldon might fall past the Texans at 11, he won’t fall past the gauntlet of teams 13-16 who all desire pass rushers. It’s the perfect time to trade up. Genius move.
11. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska (Texans) – Houston fans are so delusional. Every Texans fan page I’ve been to is obsessed with them drafting Patrick Peterson. Come off it. Unless you plan on trading up, which would probably cost you a second rounder, that’s not happening. But they do need a CB to fix the league’s worst pass defense, and although they don’t want to take CBs in the first round two consecutive years unless PP is on the board, they don’t really have any other options. All the elite pass rushers are gone, and they aren’t going to reach for Jordan or Watt when Amukamara is the best player available, and he fills a major need. It’s that easy. As a Lions fan, this is the part where I give up hope.
12. Cam Newton, QB, Auburn (Vikings) – It’s well known that the Vikings need a quarterback, and their new coach is actively looking for the ‘next Brett Favre.’ I’m sure they have Jake Locker’s name written down on several big boards, but they’ll be shocked to see Newton fall to them at pick 12, and Leslie Frazier will be excited enough to pull the trigger. New coaches love new quarterbacks. Newton wouldn’t be asked to do too much with AP in the backfield. It’s a perfect fit. And not a moment too soon, because Newton might fall out of the first round entirely if Minnesota doesn’t take him.
13. Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College (Lions) - With all the Lions’ top targets off the board, (Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, Amukamara), they’ll do the smart thing and protect their $72 million dollar investment with a left tackle. Castonzo is a 6’7” beast with size, speed, and intelligence (he was a biochemistry major). He’ll play most of 2011 at right tackle, learning the ropes and putting on weight (he needs to gain about 15 pounds to withstand the beating from power rushers), and then he’ll move over to LT to begin the 2012 year. Lions insider Tom Kowalski has been saying all along that if Detroit doesn’t get the defensive player they hope for, Castonzo will be the constellation prize. Fans would love an offensive lineman. This might be a sneaky great pick.
14. JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin (Rams) – The Rams will try hard to trade up for Julio Jones, but Cleveland is not budging. This decision comes down to Watt and Corey Liuget. Rams’ management has been talking about Liuget for weeks, but it seems like a smokescreen to me. I think they are hoping teams will forget that they are in the market for a pass-rusher, and they’ll be delighted to get Watt, a massive and fast DE/OLB hybrid who could be very versatile in Spagnuolo’s defense.
15. DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson (Dolphins) – This pick is a total risk, but I wasn’t sure what other direction to go. We know that Bowers is going to fall because of the knee. Some scouts are afraid he’ll never be able to play in the NFL. Some think he might miss at least the entire 2011 season. But others think he’ll be ready to start the season. Who wants to take the risk on the prospect who was once considered a surefire top 3 pick? My guess is the drama-loving Dolphins. We know they are exploring all their defensive line options, and I was going to mock Nick Fairley here until I read a strange story about how Fairley refused to meet with the Fins’ management because he’s so confident that he’ll be picked in the top 10 (which is exactly why he won’t). But I like Bowers here, because Miami just seems like a team that would roll the dice. This is the ultimate risk-reward pick, but if it pays off and Bowers knee holds up, they just got the steal of the draft and an insanely good defense. They swung for the fences attempting to get Jim Harbaugh and they missed. I think they’ll swing big again here.
16. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue (Jaguars) – This pick comes down to three options: Kerrigan, Cameron Jordan, and trading down. The Jaguars (and especially their fans) really want a quarterback, and they have no delusions about trading up for one of the top 3 guys. The popular name in Jacksonville is Florida State’s Christian Ponder, a likely second rounder and a local hero who reminds some people of Aaron Rodgers. But this is too soon to select Ponder, and trading back for him isn’t their best option. Instead I think they’ll try to trade up in the second round to grab Ponder ahead of the Bills and Bengals. But for the #16 selection, I think they’ll pick Kerrigan slightly ahead of Jordan, for no other reason than Kerrigan is a better fit for the 4-3. Tough call though. Can you believe that Kerrigan is only the second Big Ten player to be drafted in the top 16?
17. Cameron Jordan, DE, California (Redskins) – Washington traded back from the #10 pick and picked up a third rounder in the process. Now they’ll use this pick to bolster a terrible defensive line. I don’t dislike Jordan for this pick, but I don’t see a lot of impact either. That defense is too much of a mess to be solved in the wake of Haynesworth’s departure. But Jordan can play DE in the 3-4 which fits his skill set perfectly.
18. Andy Dalton, QB, TCU (49ers) – When San Fran missed on Peterson with the 7 pick and traded back, they immediately began the frantic search to find a franchise quarterback for Jim Harbaugh’s new offense. Most people believe that Alex Smith will be back for a couple years to mentor a rookie, which pretty much crushes the idea of Kevin Kolb or Carson Palmer going to San Francisco. There’s no doubt that Harbaugh will take a quarterback in the first two rounds. It’s just a matter of when, and who. Pick #7 would be way to soon to reach for Dalton, but pick #18 makes sense, with plenty of QB-hungry teams coming up at the start of the second round. My hunch is that Harbaugh doesn’t even want Gabbert or Newton. He wants a QB who can move around and throw short passes with pinpoint accuracy. Dalton is a perfect fit. Jake Locker and Christian Ponder are also great fits for Harbaugh’s offense, but Dalton has a stronger arm and is a more proven winner than Ponder, and Locker won’t make it past pick 12. (Note: if Newton and Gabbert both go in the top 5 as most people expect, than San Fran will take Locker with the 7th pick, and San Diego will remain here at 18).
19. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA (Giants) – A lot of people expect the Giants to select an offensive tackle in the first round, but that’s actually not their biggest area of need. They need to find a replacement for 34 year old Keith Bullock, and at 254 pounds Ayers is big enough to play strongside LB in the 4-3.
20. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa (Buccaneers) – Tampa will try to trade up for an elite pass rusher, but San Diego and New England are able to make better offers and thus they get Robert Quinn and Aldon Smith. No sense in trading up for Watt or Kerrigan when Tampa can get a nearly identical prospect in Clayborn. The choice is going to come down to their Clayborn or OLB Justin Houston from Georgia. Clayborn is bigger and better suited for DE in the 4-3. Houston is more of a pure outside linebacker. Clayborn makes more sense for Tampa.
21. TRADE – Kansas City has a zillion enticing options here, and will choose to trade backwards and wait another ten picks or so. They like Carimi and Solder but also plenty of defensive linemen including Temple’s Muhammad Wilkerson and Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward. The team to trade with is Chicago, who desperately needs to address the offensive line and would love to leap in front of the Colts at pick 22 and do so. In exchange the Chiefs get Chicago’s #29 pick and a 3rd rounder.
21. Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin (Bears) – Chicago jumps ahead of the Colts in order to secure their franchise right tackle and protect Jay Cutler. It doesn’t matter, because the Colts wanted …
22. Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State (Colts) – It’s virtually a no-brainer for the Colts to take an offensive lineman and continue to keep Peyton Manning upright. They gave up way too many sacks last year. Colts’ management have been meeting with Sherrod for weeks.
23. Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado (Eagles) – Sort of an easy pick, but sometimes you don’t want to overthink common sense. Smith is a rising cornerback prospect who has the size and speed to be an elite shutdown corner. He might be in the conversation for the Lions at pick #13, but his ‘character concerns’ have probably knocked him out of the top 15. Speaking of which …
24. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn (Saints) – I can’t believe how far I have Fairley falling, just months after he was in the running for the #1 pick. A terrible Combine workout and glaring maturity issues have cost Fairley millions of dollars and about 20 spots in the draft. As Miami proves with pick #15, teams would rather have an injury risk than a character risk. Fairley has drawn comparisons to Albert Haynesworth for his dominance on the field and attitude off the field. He takes plays off and has a reputation for being a dirty player. Fairley is most commonly mocked to the Titans with the #8 pick, but I just can’t see Bud Adams taking a player who reminds anybody of Haynesworth, especially in the wake of drama with Pacman Jones, Vince Young, Randy Moss, and now Kenny Britt. The Titans can ill-afford to draft another head-case. They’ll be very happy to take Jake Locker at pick #8 and let Fairley free fall. He’ll find a home in New Orleans, though, who sorely needs to improve the middle of their defensive line and has the veteran leadership in place to cope with a potential nutcase.
25. Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple (Seahawks) – Possibly the steal of the draft thus far. Seattle can’t believe their luck as Wilkerson falls to them. They have the choice between Wilkerson and Corey Liuget from Illinois, but Wilkerson gets the nod because he’s a better fit in Casey Bradley’s 4-3 defense. He’ll fill the gap left by free agent DT Brandon Mebane. Don’t look now, but Seattle is piecing together a half-decent defense.
26. Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois (Ravens) – Baltimore has a lot of appealing options here, but just like last year when they stole Sergio Kindle in the second round, they’ll take the best player available despite their needs for a CB and OT. Aaron Williams from Texas and Cameron Heyward from Ohio State are intriguing, but it’s amazing that Liuget (pronounced ‘legit’) fell this far. He’ll jump right in to the DE spot in the 3-4 defense and replace Cory Redding.
27. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame (Falcons) – I tried to mock somebody else here, simply because every mock draft on the planet has Atlanta taking Rudolph and I just wanted to be different. But come on, with Tony Gonzalez nearing retirement and no receiving options behind Roddy White, Rudolph just makes tons of sense here. Tight ends in the first round are rare because they are a luxury for great teams with few needs. Of course, that’s why it was idiotic for Detroit to take Pettigrew three years ago when we could have drafted, oh I don’t know, Clay Matthews!. But Atlanta, unlike the 2008 Lions who went 0-16, is a great team. And Rudolph is considered the best tight end prospect in years. This is a luxury pick that is bound to happen.
28. TRADE – Surely New England won’t just stay here. With the Chiefs and Jets coming up soon and both teams needing interior linemen on the defensive line, Bill Belichick makes a couple calls and finds a suitor in Houston. New England moves back to pick #42 and picks up a third and fourth rounder in 2013.
28. Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State (Texans) – The Texans need to keep revamping their defense, and obtaining a powerful pass-rusher in Heyward is a great step. He should plug right in as a 3-4 DE in Wade Phillips’ system.
29. TRADE – The quarterback bonanza begins. With Ponder, Kaepernick, and Mallet still on the board, there are about 6 more teams that are looking for franchise quarterbacks. Many of those teams are drafting near the start of the second round. Let the trading begin. Kansas City traded back to this spot earlier, and now trades back again as they continue to amass picks. They’ll give this pick to the Cardinals, who are more desperate than anybody to find a quarterback. They’re willing to give up next year’s second round pick and a fourth rounder to move up from pick #38 and select …
29. Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State (Cardinals) – Once again, the Jaguars miss their guy. Last year, they wanted Tebow and were foiled when Denver traded up. The same happens this year. Jacksonville just isn’t real smart on draft day. Arizona, on the other hand, finds somebody to replace the poo-poo platter of Max Hall and John Skelton, and gives themselves a chance to keep Larry Fitzgerald happy before he hits the free agent market in 2012. Ponder is the fifth QB taken in the first round.
30. Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona (Jets) – The Jets claim that they will take the best player available regardless of position. In this case, that would be either Mike Pouncey or Nate Solder, two excellent offensive lineman who should be off the board by now. But Rex Ryan can’t resist the temptation to take a pass rusher. Reed is relentless, fast, and an ideal DE/OLB hybrid in the 3-4 blitz-heavy scheme. Because of his white skin and long blond hair, Reed draws plenty of comparisons to Clay Matthews. He won’t be that good, but he might be a steal at the end of round 1. In fact, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Lions reach for him.
31. Mike Pouncey, G, Florida (Steelers) – Last year, Pittsburgh took Maurice Pouncey with the 18th pick. He was their best offensive lineman, and a Pro Bowl center. This year, they’ll take Pouncey’s younger brother, also from Florida, and create the beginnings of an outstanding offensive line. As a major Steeler-hater, this pick scares me. I really want Pouncey to be gone, but I don’t see it happening. Interior offensive linemen just aren’t coveted. But in Pittsburgh, this will be the most celebrated pick since James Harrison picked off Kurt Warner in Super Bowl XLIII and ran it back 100 yards for the score.
32. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama (Packers) – This is what happens when there are too many good players in one draft - the Super Bowl champs get a Heisman-winning running back. Green Bay wants to improve its defensive front 7, particularly the DE position, but the prospect of finding a franchise running back is pretty appealing. Ingram would replace the injured Ryan Grant as Green Bay’s power back, allowing Brandon Jackson to play third downs and garbage time. James Starks played admirably for the Packers after Grant got hurt, but not well enough to prevent them from drafting a stud like Ingram. This is a luxury pick for a great team, and it makes them even scarier than they already are.
33. TRADE – With New England on the clock and the next two teams (Buffalo and Cincinnati) looking for quarterbacks, you can be assured of a trade here. Jacksonville is too depressed after losing Ponder to think straight, so Washington beats them to the phones and offers next year’s second round pick to move up 8 spots and grab …
33. Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada (Redskins) – A Mike Shanahan dream come true! Kaepernick has an insane 40 time (4.53, faster than Cam Newton) and the perfect skill set for Shanahan’s unique take on the West Coast offense. Shanny likes QB who can throw accurately on the run and outside of the pocket, and that’s exactly what Colin did in the Pistol formation at Nevada. He’s certainly a project player and wouldn’t start on day 1, but we all know how much faith (to a fault) Shanahan has in Rex Grossman. This doesn’t change my belief that Washington will be horrible and pick Andrew Luck #1 overall in 2012, but at least it will be fun to watch Kaepernick scramble around for a few weeks, and then debate all winter about whether Washington likes him enough to not take Luck #1 overall.
34. Nate Solder, OT, Colorado (Bills) – Buffalo could lament about the top six quarterbacks being off the board, and they could overreact by signing the brainless Ryan Mallet. But instead they’ll calmly continue to rebuild by adding the 6’8” monster from Colorado. Solder will play right tackle this year while putting on another 30 pounds in order to play left tackle in 2012. He’s a bargain pick here, and while Bills fans will be ticked that they didn’t pick a quarterback, they should realize how important this pick is to their future. There are simply more teams needing quarterbacks than there are quarterbacks. It’s a bizarre opposite of the 2010 Draft, when nobody wanted Jimmy Claussen. Look for Buffalo to add a guy like Nathan Enderle from Idaho or Greg McElroy from Alabama in the fourth or fifth round.
35. Ryan Mallet, QB, Arkansas (Bengals) – This might be a stretch, but I could see Marvin Lewis overreacting to the insane run on quarterbacks and securing the only potential starter left. Cincinnati probably feels pretty confident in their defense (at least compared to their offense) and will take the gamble on Mallet. His talent is certainly there; he might have a better NFL arm than anybody in this draft, including Gabbert. He can, as the scouts say, “make all the throws.” But the primary concerns are his intelligence, his leadership potential, and his accuracy. Mainly his intelligence. As in, most people think he’s on crack. Literally.
36. Justin Houston, DE, Georgia (Broncos) – After landing Dareus in the first round, Denver continues to fix its defense by adding the best passer rusher available. In John Fox’s new 4-3, Houston will play defensive end opposite Elvis Dumervil, and with Dareus now in the middle, that could be a dominant defensive line. If they can just keep Champ Bailey from leaving, Denver might improve from the NFL’s worst defense to a top 15 unit. That’s a big if.
37. Marvin Austin, DT, UNC (Browns) – Cornerback is still an issue to be resolved, but Mike Holmgren loves to collect big defensive linemen, and Austin is a top 10 talent who fell this far because of character concerns. He missed the entire 2010 college season because of a NCAA suspension, but his obvious skills have helped him skyrocket up draft boards over the past several months. He might even be picked ahead of Wilkerson and Liuget, though most teams will be worried about his character. Cleveland doesn’t have that luxury.
38. Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor (Chiefs) – After trading back twice and collecting three picks in the process, Kansas City gets the guy they almost picked in the first round anyway. Taylor is a prototypical 3-4 nosetackle, which is probably the biggest need for KC. At 335 pounds and 6’3”, Taylor will plug up the middle and allow the talented KC playmakers (Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson) to go to work. This is another defense that is quickly becoming good.
39. Allen Bailey, DE, Miami (Titans) – After securing Jake Locker with the 8th pick, the attention now shifts to the defense. Bailey is a pass rusher who could supplant free agent Jason Babin once he departs.
40. Aaron Williams, CB, Texas (Cowboys) – Jerry Jones can’t keep his mouth shut. All winter he’s been yapping about how he doesn’t need to improve the secondary. Of course, everybody knows that’s code for “We need a corner BAD.” Somehow, he gets lucky and Williams falls to the Boys at pick 40. They could have chosen Brandon Harris from Miami instead, but they need a safety too, and Williams has the flexibility to play either position. Great news for the Lions, who would love to land Harris.
41. Ben Ijalana, G, Villanova (Patriots) – Unable to find a suitable trading partner, New England is forced to make a pick here. Having already addressed the pass rush with Aldon Smith in the first round, they find a potential replacement for retired RG Stephen Neal in Ijalana, a left tackle in college but a future guard in the NFL. He’s about as quick as a 320 pound man can be, and fits the Belichick mold as a smart, team-driven player.
42. Stephen Paea, NT, Oregon (Texans) – With Detroit just two picks away, the Brandon Harris watch is on. Fortunately, Houston took a CB in the first round, and now needs to find a nosetackle for the new 3-4. Paea is a popular choice to the Texans by just about everybody. It makes perfect sense. Let’s not overthink it, it’s almost 11pm.
43. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh (Vikings) – Sidney Rice is an unrestricted free agent, Percy Harvin struggles from migraines, and Bernard Berrian is dead (metaphorically). Minnesota needs somebody for Cam Newton to throw the ball to, particularly in the red zone. The 6’5” Baldwin has the size and hands to be a dominant NFL receiver, but his speed is just average. They said the same thing about Larry Fitzgerald when he was coming out of Pitt. We’ll see.
44. Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (Lions) – With Costanzo in the first round, Detroit now must address the secondary. We can’t wait until the third round like we did last year. Amari Spievey didn’t exactly light up the field. But Harris has first-round talent, and could mature into a true shutdown corner. His height isn’t ideal, but he makes up for it with instincts and athleticism. He could become the best Detroit cornerback since Dre Bly.
There you have it. 44 picks, at least 3 of which are bound to be accurate. Here are a couple quick footnotes:
I realize that Cam Newton is probably going to go 1st, and that will throw off my entire mock draft. But I just don't want to accept it. It's insanity. It's sheer foolishness.
However, if Newton does go #1, Gabbert will go either 3, 4, 5, or 7, Locker will be gone by 10, and Dalton/Ponder will be both gone by 16. It will mess up everything I just worked on for hours. So let's just hope Carolina takes Gabbert.
If you're wondering who I think teams actually SHOULD pick, that's a whole different story. Let's just say I wouldn't have Newton or Gabbert in the first round. It's a good thing I'm not an NFL GM, because I would be fired. Either that or I'd win the Super Bowl every year. I'm not sure which.
Lastly, I just want to reiterate a few things:
-Tim Tebow still stinks.
-Let's not buy into the Jim Schwartz or Matthew Stafford hype until they win a few games.
-The Spurs are about to lose in the first round.
-My wife is pregnant.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Lions Schedule
Week 1 - @ Tampa
Week 2 - home for Kansas City
Week 3 - @ Minnesota
Week 4 - @ Dallas
Week 5 - home for Chicago on Monday night
Week 6 - home for San Fran
Week 7 - home for Atlanta
Week 8 - @ Denver
BYE
Week 10 - @ Chicago
Week 11 - home for Carolina
Week 12 - home for Green Bay - Thanksgiving
Week 13 - @ New Orleans
Week 14 - home for Minnesota
Week 15 - @ Oakland
Week 16 - home for San Diego
Week 17 - @ Green Bay
Thoughts:
First of all, can you believe the Lions have a Monday night game?!? It's the first one since the infamous 35-0 shellacking against Mike Martz and the Rams in 2001. I'm a little surprised we're playing the Bears on Monday night, but I think that goes to prove that the Sunday night games have replaced the Monday nighters are the marquee game of the week. Does anyone outside of the midwest really want to watch Detroit play Chicago?
Looking at the schedule, obviously we have the six divisional games, and then we play the mighty NFC South and the dreadful AFC West. It's easy to think that the Saints, Falcons and Chargers games will be very difficult, but let's not give San Diego too much credit. That game being in Detroit gives me a decent feeling.
The extra games are going to be Dallas and San Fran, two of last season's biggest duds. Aside from two games against the defending champs and the dynamic offenses of Atlanta and New Orleans, I really don't see too many games on this schedule that can be deemed 'unwinnable.' Even the Saints showed some signs of weakness last year, losing to the Seahawks in the wildcard round.
Unlike previous years when you could look at the schedule and say "Meh, maybe we can squeeze out 5 wins," this year really looks promising. I'm trying not to get all wide-eyed and naive like some Lions fans do, but I'm just saying none of our opponents are powerhouses. Remember, we beat the Packers last year and won our last four games.
Now, this is the part where I remind you that Matthew Stafford is terrible, even when he is healthy. The problem is, I might be the only person on the face of the earth who realizes this. Obviously the NFL still thinks he's a rising star, otherwise they wouldn't have given Detroit a Monday night game. Because of Stafford's pathetic injuries, the word from NFL insiders is that Stafford is injury-prone and fragile, but will be great if he can stay on the field.
Where do they get that idea from? His barely .500 record at Georgia? His 3 wins in 2 years? Must be his career QB rating of 67.1, which is just a notch lower than the worst quarterback of all time, Joey Harrington, who compiled a 69.4 in six seasons. What makes anyone think Stafford is a star-in-the-making is beyond me, but alas, it's only April, so I'll leave the Stafford rant to a short paragraph.
The thing is, even if Stafford is mediocre, or bad, or downright terrible, the Lions could still contend for a playoff spot. Most likely, he'll be somewhere in the middle. Not great, not awful, inconsistent and average. Like I've said before, he's the next Jay Cutler. I'm okay with that. Heck, the Bears made it to the NFC Championship game.
People who expect Stafford to suddenly blossom into a Pro Bowler and a guy with a respectable completion percentage and half as many turnovers can realistically look at the Lions schedule and say we'll win 11 games. People like me who think Stafford will be close to worthless and milk the injuries for all they're worth see a modest 6 wins. But if Stafford plays medicore, or does us a tremendous favor and gets hurt, the Lions will win 8 or more. They really will. Let's break down the schedule, game by game.
Detroit beat Tampa last year, in Tampa, when Tampa really needed a win. We can win there again. Their defense won't be so banged up this time, so it won't be easy. But I'll give us a 40% chance of starting the season with a road victory.
Week two, we're home for the overrated Chiefs who lucked into the playoffs last year. They are this year's San Francisco, who everyone predicts to win the terrible division without realizing that they have terrible quarterback play and a braindead coach. But again, it won't be an easy win, because they have the untackalable Jamaal Charles. Lions have a 55% chance.
Next it's back on the road to Minnesota, who has a new coach in Leslie Frazier whom I respect and admire. He'll have that defense playing great. But who the heck will be their quarterback? Jake Locker maybe? I have no idea. It doesn't matter as long as they have AP. Lions have about a 40% chance on the road.
Going down to Dallas will be tougher than we expect, because Romo will be healthy and the Cowboys quit on Wade Phillips last year. They like the new coach, and they'll be a completely different team next season. They've still got loads of talent. But also disfunction. Detroit only has a 35% chance.
The Monday nighter will be exciting, and perfectly winnable since everybody forgets how dreadful Jay Cutler is. Chicago's defense as a whole is overrated, but Julius Peppers is unblockable. This will be a turnover-filled dogfight. I'll give Detroit a slight edge: 55%.
We should beat San Fran at home. They are working out too many kinks. They'll have a rookie QB or maybe Kevin Kolb. But Jim Harbaugh strikes me as a pretty good coach, so it won't be completely easy. Plus they have Patrick Willis. Detroit's chances are 65%.
Atlanta will be extremely tough, even at home. Unless we draft Prince Amukamara and he turns out to be very good, we'll have no chance of stopping Roddy White. Not to mention Michael Turner. The Falcons are the team to beat in the NFC. Lions chances are about 30%.
Following the very good Falcons we get the very bad Broncos, but going to Milehigh is never easy. I'm not sure if Champ Bailey will re-sign, and that will be key. Denver also has the #2 pick (probably DT Marcell Dareus) and a new coach, so they might not be wretched like last season. But as long as it's Kyle Orton, Detroit should be ok. Plus I think Bailey will be gone, so Megatron might have a great game. 70%.
After the bye we travel to Soldier Field, where we've had some success and we 'completed the process' of winning the game last year. As I mentioned earlier, Cutler is horrid. If it was 55% at home, it's probably about 40% at Chicago.
A home game against Carolina should be the easiest game on anyone's schedule this season. They will be led by either Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton, depending on who they take with the #1 pick. Both guys will stink. The defense there is repulsive, and they are one of the few teams with significantly less talent than the Lions. Let's call this an 80% win.
At home against the champs won't be easy or enjoyable. Rodgers is going to carve up the secondary like a Thanksgiving turkey. But let's say 30% since we're at home.
Going to the Superdome to play Drew Brees is a nightmare. The two best quarterbacks in the NFC in back-to-back weeks = ouch. This is the worst two weeks of Detroit's schedule by far, and makes it important for Detroit to rack up some wins early in the year. Chances in New Orleans are maybe 20%.
Since I gave them a 40% chance in Minnesota, it should be about 60% at home. The teams are pretty evenly matched.
Going to Oakland is a long trip, but that's the only fear I have about this game. Oakland is one of the many teams with no offensive identity or leader (though I expect them to acquire Vince Young), and the defense is solid but might be without Nnmadi Asomugha. If they lose the star cornerback, Detroit's chances skyrocket. I'll say there's a 20% chance Nnamdi stays in Oakland and thus a 65% chance Detroit wins this road game.
Like I said earlier, I'm not terrified of the Chargers. Yes, Phillip Rivers is a stud, but is he really a winner? He'll probably pile up 400 yards, but for some reason I feel like this game is winnable. Let's say 45%.
The last week of the season is the worst. AT Lambeau, where we haven't won in 20+ years. Fortunately, there's a chance that Green Bay will rest their starters if they've clinched the playoffs, and that might give Detriot a chance to snap the streak, and maybe make a playoff push of their own. Factoring in the rest-the-starters possibility, let's give Detroit a 25% chance, instead of the 10% chance I would give on a normal week.
Do the math, and Detroit has 755%, divided by 16 weeks, for a 47.18% chance of winning on any given week. I guess that makes them just a shade under 8-8.
Now, if we draft Amukamara, cut Stafford, sign Asomugha, and negotiate a deal with the NFLPA so there actually IS a season, you can bump that up to 10-6 and a playoff appearance, the first since 1999. Go Lions!
Week 2 - home for Kansas City
Week 3 - @ Minnesota
Week 4 - @ Dallas
Week 5 - home for Chicago on Monday night
Week 6 - home for San Fran
Week 7 - home for Atlanta
Week 8 - @ Denver
BYE
Week 10 - @ Chicago
Week 11 - home for Carolina
Week 12 - home for Green Bay - Thanksgiving
Week 13 - @ New Orleans
Week 14 - home for Minnesota
Week 15 - @ Oakland
Week 16 - home for San Diego
Week 17 - @ Green Bay
Thoughts:
First of all, can you believe the Lions have a Monday night game?!? It's the first one since the infamous 35-0 shellacking against Mike Martz and the Rams in 2001. I'm a little surprised we're playing the Bears on Monday night, but I think that goes to prove that the Sunday night games have replaced the Monday nighters are the marquee game of the week. Does anyone outside of the midwest really want to watch Detroit play Chicago?
Looking at the schedule, obviously we have the six divisional games, and then we play the mighty NFC South and the dreadful AFC West. It's easy to think that the Saints, Falcons and Chargers games will be very difficult, but let's not give San Diego too much credit. That game being in Detroit gives me a decent feeling.
The extra games are going to be Dallas and San Fran, two of last season's biggest duds. Aside from two games against the defending champs and the dynamic offenses of Atlanta and New Orleans, I really don't see too many games on this schedule that can be deemed 'unwinnable.' Even the Saints showed some signs of weakness last year, losing to the Seahawks in the wildcard round.
Unlike previous years when you could look at the schedule and say "Meh, maybe we can squeeze out 5 wins," this year really looks promising. I'm trying not to get all wide-eyed and naive like some Lions fans do, but I'm just saying none of our opponents are powerhouses. Remember, we beat the Packers last year and won our last four games.
Now, this is the part where I remind you that Matthew Stafford is terrible, even when he is healthy. The problem is, I might be the only person on the face of the earth who realizes this. Obviously the NFL still thinks he's a rising star, otherwise they wouldn't have given Detroit a Monday night game. Because of Stafford's pathetic injuries, the word from NFL insiders is that Stafford is injury-prone and fragile, but will be great if he can stay on the field.
Where do they get that idea from? His barely .500 record at Georgia? His 3 wins in 2 years? Must be his career QB rating of 67.1, which is just a notch lower than the worst quarterback of all time, Joey Harrington, who compiled a 69.4 in six seasons. What makes anyone think Stafford is a star-in-the-making is beyond me, but alas, it's only April, so I'll leave the Stafford rant to a short paragraph.
The thing is, even if Stafford is mediocre, or bad, or downright terrible, the Lions could still contend for a playoff spot. Most likely, he'll be somewhere in the middle. Not great, not awful, inconsistent and average. Like I've said before, he's the next Jay Cutler. I'm okay with that. Heck, the Bears made it to the NFC Championship game.
People who expect Stafford to suddenly blossom into a Pro Bowler and a guy with a respectable completion percentage and half as many turnovers can realistically look at the Lions schedule and say we'll win 11 games. People like me who think Stafford will be close to worthless and milk the injuries for all they're worth see a modest 6 wins. But if Stafford plays medicore, or does us a tremendous favor and gets hurt, the Lions will win 8 or more. They really will. Let's break down the schedule, game by game.
Detroit beat Tampa last year, in Tampa, when Tampa really needed a win. We can win there again. Their defense won't be so banged up this time, so it won't be easy. But I'll give us a 40% chance of starting the season with a road victory.
Week two, we're home for the overrated Chiefs who lucked into the playoffs last year. They are this year's San Francisco, who everyone predicts to win the terrible division without realizing that they have terrible quarterback play and a braindead coach. But again, it won't be an easy win, because they have the untackalable Jamaal Charles. Lions have a 55% chance.
Next it's back on the road to Minnesota, who has a new coach in Leslie Frazier whom I respect and admire. He'll have that defense playing great. But who the heck will be their quarterback? Jake Locker maybe? I have no idea. It doesn't matter as long as they have AP. Lions have about a 40% chance on the road.
Going down to Dallas will be tougher than we expect, because Romo will be healthy and the Cowboys quit on Wade Phillips last year. They like the new coach, and they'll be a completely different team next season. They've still got loads of talent. But also disfunction. Detroit only has a 35% chance.
The Monday nighter will be exciting, and perfectly winnable since everybody forgets how dreadful Jay Cutler is. Chicago's defense as a whole is overrated, but Julius Peppers is unblockable. This will be a turnover-filled dogfight. I'll give Detroit a slight edge: 55%.
We should beat San Fran at home. They are working out too many kinks. They'll have a rookie QB or maybe Kevin Kolb. But Jim Harbaugh strikes me as a pretty good coach, so it won't be completely easy. Plus they have Patrick Willis. Detroit's chances are 65%.
Atlanta will be extremely tough, even at home. Unless we draft Prince Amukamara and he turns out to be very good, we'll have no chance of stopping Roddy White. Not to mention Michael Turner. The Falcons are the team to beat in the NFC. Lions chances are about 30%.
Following the very good Falcons we get the very bad Broncos, but going to Milehigh is never easy. I'm not sure if Champ Bailey will re-sign, and that will be key. Denver also has the #2 pick (probably DT Marcell Dareus) and a new coach, so they might not be wretched like last season. But as long as it's Kyle Orton, Detroit should be ok. Plus I think Bailey will be gone, so Megatron might have a great game. 70%.
After the bye we travel to Soldier Field, where we've had some success and we 'completed the process' of winning the game last year. As I mentioned earlier, Cutler is horrid. If it was 55% at home, it's probably about 40% at Chicago.
A home game against Carolina should be the easiest game on anyone's schedule this season. They will be led by either Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton, depending on who they take with the #1 pick. Both guys will stink. The defense there is repulsive, and they are one of the few teams with significantly less talent than the Lions. Let's call this an 80% win.
At home against the champs won't be easy or enjoyable. Rodgers is going to carve up the secondary like a Thanksgiving turkey. But let's say 30% since we're at home.
Going to the Superdome to play Drew Brees is a nightmare. The two best quarterbacks in the NFC in back-to-back weeks = ouch. This is the worst two weeks of Detroit's schedule by far, and makes it important for Detroit to rack up some wins early in the year. Chances in New Orleans are maybe 20%.
Since I gave them a 40% chance in Minnesota, it should be about 60% at home. The teams are pretty evenly matched.
Going to Oakland is a long trip, but that's the only fear I have about this game. Oakland is one of the many teams with no offensive identity or leader (though I expect them to acquire Vince Young), and the defense is solid but might be without Nnmadi Asomugha. If they lose the star cornerback, Detroit's chances skyrocket. I'll say there's a 20% chance Nnamdi stays in Oakland and thus a 65% chance Detroit wins this road game.
Like I said earlier, I'm not terrified of the Chargers. Yes, Phillip Rivers is a stud, but is he really a winner? He'll probably pile up 400 yards, but for some reason I feel like this game is winnable. Let's say 45%.
The last week of the season is the worst. AT Lambeau, where we haven't won in 20+ years. Fortunately, there's a chance that Green Bay will rest their starters if they've clinched the playoffs, and that might give Detriot a chance to snap the streak, and maybe make a playoff push of their own. Factoring in the rest-the-starters possibility, let's give Detroit a 25% chance, instead of the 10% chance I would give on a normal week.
Do the math, and Detroit has 755%, divided by 16 weeks, for a 47.18% chance of winning on any given week. I guess that makes them just a shade under 8-8.
Now, if we draft Amukamara, cut Stafford, sign Asomugha, and negotiate a deal with the NFLPA so there actually IS a season, you can bump that up to 10-6 and a playoff appearance, the first since 1999. Go Lions!
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Prepare to be Disappointed
Nobody knows more about the Detroit Lions than beat writer Tom Kowalski. Perhaps not even Jim Schwartz.
So when Tom writes in his most recent Mlive.com article that Detroit may be leaning towards Missouri defensive end Aldon Smith with the #13 pick, instead of Nebraska's Prince Amukamara, it's more than just another rumor. And if it becomes a reality, it means yet another season in which the Lions useless secondary remains useless.
I'm not suggesting that Prince would step into the starting cornerback role and immediately be a star. He wouldn't. He would probably be burned repeatedly, just like Phillip Buchannon and Alphonso Smith and all those other clowns. But Amukamara has something none of them had: potential. He could, in a few short years, be a lockdown corner, capable of eliminating Greg Jennings or Sidney Rice from the game. He could become the defensive piece that Detroit hasn't had in decades.
Instead, Jim Schwartz is looking to continue his obsession with rebuilding the defensive line. Hey, don't get me wrong, there is no bigger Ndamukong Suh fan than me. And Kyle VandenBosch played great last year, as did Corey Williams, and Cliff Avril. All around, Detroit had one of the best defensive lines in the NFC, and as a result we had the 6th most sacks in the league. More than the Jets, Patriots, Bears, and Vikings. Schwartz and defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham know this, and they know that sacks are sexy. They know that sacks look good on paper.
But you know what looks bad on paper? Detroit having the 17th best defense against the pass, and doing nothing to improve it. And if 17th doesn't sound too terribly bad to you, consider that we've ranked 32nd, 27th, 31st, and 25th in pass defense over the last four years. Creating a pass rush helps, but without capable cornerbacks it doesn't matter. The blitz is only effective when the coverage holds.
Look at Pittsburgh and Baltimore - two of the best blitzing teams in the league. They regularly send 7 or 8 defenders at the quarterback, and they are successful. Why? Because they have the league's most instinctive and talented safeties. Why are the Jets able to blitz on every down? Because Revis can shut down half the field singlehandedly. Having a bunch of great defensive lineman without any cornerbacks is like building a basketball team with nothing but 7 footers. It sounds exciting, but who's gonna dribble the ball up the court?
I don't have any qualms about Aldon Smith. I've watched his highlights, listened to his interviews, and I think he'll be a great pro. Probably a double-digit sack specialist as soon as 2012. But I just think it's too soon to worry about replacing Kyle VandenBosch, who is only 32 and should have a few more starting seasons in the tank. Instead of addressing a semi-need, why don't we address the pressing, dire needs of cornerback and outside linebacker?
Yet again, Detroit is going into an offseason with major holes in the roster. Aside from Delmas, we don't know who any of the starters are going to be in the secondary; simultaneously, only one linebacker spot (Levy at MLB) is occupied. There are 5 complete unknowns on the defense.
Then look at the defensive line, where Suh and Williams and VandenBosch and Avril are all healthy and ready for another season. And Turk McBride and Lawrence Jackson and Sammie Hill give us pretty good depth. Is there really a spot for Aldon Smith? What's the use in forcing VandenBosch to the bench? He's not that old yet!
Some might argue that Aldon is a OLB/DE hybrid. That's not the case. Yes, he could play OLB in a 3-4 scheme, but on Detroit's 4-3 he would be asked to step back into coverage, and that's a disaster waiting to happen. Smith is a 6'4", 265 pound monster with one speciality: rushing the passer. He has long arms, great speed, and a relentless motor. He's a defensive lineman, strictly.
If Detroit wants an outside linebacker to replace the disgruntled Julian Peterson, there will be plenty of options. Akeem Ayers, Justin Houston, maybe even Bruce Carter, although he's more of a 2nd round pick. Maybe we'll get lucky and Robert Quinn or Von Miller will fall to us. But don't count on in. Instead, expect Detroit to wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to take the outside linebacker they immediately need.
After CB and OLB, Detroit also needs to fix the offensive line. Not just the tackles, but the entire thing. Backus is 33, Raiola is 32, Peterman is 29, and Cherilus is worthless. At the least, how about some depth and some injury insurance?
A defensive lineman is the fourth or fifth biggest need for Detroit, maybe. It might be more helpful to add another wide receiver, or a power running back, or a safety who specializes in coverage. Defensive line is the strength, not the weakness, of this Lions team, and spending a first round pick to make it even better truly makes no sense... ESPECIALLY when you consider the NFL lockout and the absence of a free agency period, which allows the Lions no chance to fill the holes on their roster EXCEPT through the draft. Instead of improving the defensive line from an A- to an A, how about improving the secondary from an F- to a C+?
Now, Schwartz and Cunningham will say that Aldon Smith is a surefire superstar in the making, with no chance of busting. They'll say he's the best DE prospect they've ever seen. They'll compare him to Reggie White and Julius Peppers, with a little bit of Brett Favre mixed in. We'll hear the same hyperbole crap from Gunther that we hear every season, like when he called DeAndre Levy the best linebacker he'd ever coached (even though he coached Hall of Famer Derrick Johnson). That's all really nice, but come on..... if Aldon Smith really was that unbelievable, why aren't the teams in the top 10 considering him? Why is it a given that he'll be available at pick 13?
While I appreciate Gunther overstating and exaggerating, because I know he's just trying to instill confidence in the defense, maybe he should realize that Detroit ranked dead last in total defense in 2007, 2008, and 2009. Three years ago Gunther coached the worst defense in the history of the NFL. And here's a newsflash: the secondary hasn't been improved one bit since we went 0-16.
So yeah, Aldon Smith might get 12 sacks next year, and he might even win defensive rookie of the year. But if the secondary gives up 350 passing yards and 4 TDs a game, does it matter?
And what about the chance that Aldon Smith isn't amazing? What if he's just a solid but unspectacular defensive end? Doesn't that hamper the defense by forcing us to rebuild the secondary next year, instead of this year, while having a glut of defensive linemen? What I'm really asking is this: is there ANY logical reason to take Aldon Smith ahead of Prince Amukamara? Are we forgetting that everybody agrees that Amukamara is the better prospect and would be a miracle if he even falls to the Lions at pick 13?! And if he doesn't, we should decide between an offensive lineman or the next cornerback down the list (Jimmy Smith from Colorado, probably).
Yet now Kowalski is saying that not only will Amukamara fall, but the Lions might in fact pass on him to bolster the already-solid pass rush.
It's ironic. The dream pick might just be there, and we might just pass it by. And next year when the 4-12 Lions rank third in the NFL in sacks, Jim Schwartz will beat his chest and say "Yeah sacks! We got sacks! Sacks! Sacks!! Sacks!!!!!!"
Then we the fans will gloomily look at the 2012 NFL draft and ask ourselves, "Well, we got the #4 pick, which stud cornerback should we take to fix our worthless pass defense?"
Ughh ... I hate being a Lions fan.
So when Tom writes in his most recent Mlive.com article that Detroit may be leaning towards Missouri defensive end Aldon Smith with the #13 pick, instead of Nebraska's Prince Amukamara, it's more than just another rumor. And if it becomes a reality, it means yet another season in which the Lions useless secondary remains useless.
I'm not suggesting that Prince would step into the starting cornerback role and immediately be a star. He wouldn't. He would probably be burned repeatedly, just like Phillip Buchannon and Alphonso Smith and all those other clowns. But Amukamara has something none of them had: potential. He could, in a few short years, be a lockdown corner, capable of eliminating Greg Jennings or Sidney Rice from the game. He could become the defensive piece that Detroit hasn't had in decades.
Instead, Jim Schwartz is looking to continue his obsession with rebuilding the defensive line. Hey, don't get me wrong, there is no bigger Ndamukong Suh fan than me. And Kyle VandenBosch played great last year, as did Corey Williams, and Cliff Avril. All around, Detroit had one of the best defensive lines in the NFC, and as a result we had the 6th most sacks in the league. More than the Jets, Patriots, Bears, and Vikings. Schwartz and defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham know this, and they know that sacks are sexy. They know that sacks look good on paper.
But you know what looks bad on paper? Detroit having the 17th best defense against the pass, and doing nothing to improve it. And if 17th doesn't sound too terribly bad to you, consider that we've ranked 32nd, 27th, 31st, and 25th in pass defense over the last four years. Creating a pass rush helps, but without capable cornerbacks it doesn't matter. The blitz is only effective when the coverage holds.
Look at Pittsburgh and Baltimore - two of the best blitzing teams in the league. They regularly send 7 or 8 defenders at the quarterback, and they are successful. Why? Because they have the league's most instinctive and talented safeties. Why are the Jets able to blitz on every down? Because Revis can shut down half the field singlehandedly. Having a bunch of great defensive lineman without any cornerbacks is like building a basketball team with nothing but 7 footers. It sounds exciting, but who's gonna dribble the ball up the court?
I don't have any qualms about Aldon Smith. I've watched his highlights, listened to his interviews, and I think he'll be a great pro. Probably a double-digit sack specialist as soon as 2012. But I just think it's too soon to worry about replacing Kyle VandenBosch, who is only 32 and should have a few more starting seasons in the tank. Instead of addressing a semi-need, why don't we address the pressing, dire needs of cornerback and outside linebacker?
Yet again, Detroit is going into an offseason with major holes in the roster. Aside from Delmas, we don't know who any of the starters are going to be in the secondary; simultaneously, only one linebacker spot (Levy at MLB) is occupied. There are 5 complete unknowns on the defense.
Then look at the defensive line, where Suh and Williams and VandenBosch and Avril are all healthy and ready for another season. And Turk McBride and Lawrence Jackson and Sammie Hill give us pretty good depth. Is there really a spot for Aldon Smith? What's the use in forcing VandenBosch to the bench? He's not that old yet!
Some might argue that Aldon is a OLB/DE hybrid. That's not the case. Yes, he could play OLB in a 3-4 scheme, but on Detroit's 4-3 he would be asked to step back into coverage, and that's a disaster waiting to happen. Smith is a 6'4", 265 pound monster with one speciality: rushing the passer. He has long arms, great speed, and a relentless motor. He's a defensive lineman, strictly.
If Detroit wants an outside linebacker to replace the disgruntled Julian Peterson, there will be plenty of options. Akeem Ayers, Justin Houston, maybe even Bruce Carter, although he's more of a 2nd round pick. Maybe we'll get lucky and Robert Quinn or Von Miller will fall to us. But don't count on in. Instead, expect Detroit to wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to take the outside linebacker they immediately need.
After CB and OLB, Detroit also needs to fix the offensive line. Not just the tackles, but the entire thing. Backus is 33, Raiola is 32, Peterman is 29, and Cherilus is worthless. At the least, how about some depth and some injury insurance?
A defensive lineman is the fourth or fifth biggest need for Detroit, maybe. It might be more helpful to add another wide receiver, or a power running back, or a safety who specializes in coverage. Defensive line is the strength, not the weakness, of this Lions team, and spending a first round pick to make it even better truly makes no sense... ESPECIALLY when you consider the NFL lockout and the absence of a free agency period, which allows the Lions no chance to fill the holes on their roster EXCEPT through the draft. Instead of improving the defensive line from an A- to an A, how about improving the secondary from an F- to a C+?
Now, Schwartz and Cunningham will say that Aldon Smith is a surefire superstar in the making, with no chance of busting. They'll say he's the best DE prospect they've ever seen. They'll compare him to Reggie White and Julius Peppers, with a little bit of Brett Favre mixed in. We'll hear the same hyperbole crap from Gunther that we hear every season, like when he called DeAndre Levy the best linebacker he'd ever coached (even though he coached Hall of Famer Derrick Johnson). That's all really nice, but come on..... if Aldon Smith really was that unbelievable, why aren't the teams in the top 10 considering him? Why is it a given that he'll be available at pick 13?
While I appreciate Gunther overstating and exaggerating, because I know he's just trying to instill confidence in the defense, maybe he should realize that Detroit ranked dead last in total defense in 2007, 2008, and 2009. Three years ago Gunther coached the worst defense in the history of the NFL. And here's a newsflash: the secondary hasn't been improved one bit since we went 0-16.
So yeah, Aldon Smith might get 12 sacks next year, and he might even win defensive rookie of the year. But if the secondary gives up 350 passing yards and 4 TDs a game, does it matter?
And what about the chance that Aldon Smith isn't amazing? What if he's just a solid but unspectacular defensive end? Doesn't that hamper the defense by forcing us to rebuild the secondary next year, instead of this year, while having a glut of defensive linemen? What I'm really asking is this: is there ANY logical reason to take Aldon Smith ahead of Prince Amukamara? Are we forgetting that everybody agrees that Amukamara is the better prospect and would be a miracle if he even falls to the Lions at pick 13?! And if he doesn't, we should decide between an offensive lineman or the next cornerback down the list (Jimmy Smith from Colorado, probably).
Yet now Kowalski is saying that not only will Amukamara fall, but the Lions might in fact pass on him to bolster the already-solid pass rush.
It's ironic. The dream pick might just be there, and we might just pass it by. And next year when the 4-12 Lions rank third in the NFL in sacks, Jim Schwartz will beat his chest and say "Yeah sacks! We got sacks! Sacks! Sacks!! Sacks!!!!!!"
Then we the fans will gloomily look at the 2012 NFL draft and ask ourselves, "Well, we got the #4 pick, which stud cornerback should we take to fix our worthless pass defense?"
Ughh ... I hate being a Lions fan.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Amukamara to the Lions?
This just in: two of the Internet's most prominent NFL Draft experts have recently mocked Prince Amukamara to the Detroit Lions with the #13 pick. For you non-draft-obsessed fans, Amukamara is a 6'1" cornerback from Nebraska with unbelievable coverage skills and great strength and a real possibility to be the next Darrelle Revis. Amukamara is widely considered a top 10 overall prospect, and probably should be higher than that. For Detroit to get him at #13, some things will have to go out way.
Firstly, some teams in the top 10 will have to waste picks on players the Lions have no interest in. This should include at least 2 quarterbacks (Gabbert and Newton), and hopefully a third (Locker to either the Redskins or Vikings), as well as at least one receiver (A.J. Green) and hopefully a second (Julio Jones to either the Redskins or Browns). Hopefully at least one other team will make a 'WTF' pick, like when Jacksonville selected unknown Tyson Alualu last year with the #10 pick.
If those things go according to plan, it will leave Detroit with a good chance at Amukamara. There are two teams ahead of us who pose a big threat: Dallas, and Houston. The rumor is that Jerry Jones does not want to take Amukamara, and might spend the #9 pick on right tackle Tyson Smith from USC. But do you really trust anything Jerry Jones says? Then there's Houston, who desperately needs to upgrade the secondary, but also needs to revamp the pass rush in the move to Wade Phillip's new 3-4 defense. A lot of experts think he'll want a pass-rushing specialist like he had in DeMarcus Ware, and will select either Aldon Smith or Akeem Ayers, or maybe even Kerrigan or Houston or Reed, or Bowers or Quinn if they freefall. (There are millions of options at OLB.)
If both Houston and Dallas pass on Prince, Minnesota is the only team in our way. They need a cornerback, and will have Amukamara high on their board. They'll pass on the myriad of defensive lineman and linebackers, and they'll wait to address offensive line. For them, it will be between Amukamara (if he's still on the board) and a new franchise quarterback. With Gabbert and Newton gone, that will mean Jake Locker. New Vikings' coach Leslie Frazier has declared his intention to find a new quarterback, but that doesn't necessarily mean a first-round pick. Although maybe it does. A lot of experts believe they will select Locker, assuming he doesn't go 2 picks earlier to Washington.
It's a lot to wonder about. The Draft is 13 days away, and I'll post some kind of final Mock Draft as we get closer. There are a lot of factors at play, especially trades, but the chances that Detroit gets their guy are looking ever sos slightly better. To quote the despicable Rebecca Black, We We We So Excited.
Firstly, some teams in the top 10 will have to waste picks on players the Lions have no interest in. This should include at least 2 quarterbacks (Gabbert and Newton), and hopefully a third (Locker to either the Redskins or Vikings), as well as at least one receiver (A.J. Green) and hopefully a second (Julio Jones to either the Redskins or Browns). Hopefully at least one other team will make a 'WTF' pick, like when Jacksonville selected unknown Tyson Alualu last year with the #10 pick.
If those things go according to plan, it will leave Detroit with a good chance at Amukamara. There are two teams ahead of us who pose a big threat: Dallas, and Houston. The rumor is that Jerry Jones does not want to take Amukamara, and might spend the #9 pick on right tackle Tyson Smith from USC. But do you really trust anything Jerry Jones says? Then there's Houston, who desperately needs to upgrade the secondary, but also needs to revamp the pass rush in the move to Wade Phillip's new 3-4 defense. A lot of experts think he'll want a pass-rushing specialist like he had in DeMarcus Ware, and will select either Aldon Smith or Akeem Ayers, or maybe even Kerrigan or Houston or Reed, or Bowers or Quinn if they freefall. (There are millions of options at OLB.)
If both Houston and Dallas pass on Prince, Minnesota is the only team in our way. They need a cornerback, and will have Amukamara high on their board. They'll pass on the myriad of defensive lineman and linebackers, and they'll wait to address offensive line. For them, it will be between Amukamara (if he's still on the board) and a new franchise quarterback. With Gabbert and Newton gone, that will mean Jake Locker. New Vikings' coach Leslie Frazier has declared his intention to find a new quarterback, but that doesn't necessarily mean a first-round pick. Although maybe it does. A lot of experts believe they will select Locker, assuming he doesn't go 2 picks earlier to Washington.
It's a lot to wonder about. The Draft is 13 days away, and I'll post some kind of final Mock Draft as we get closer. There are a lot of factors at play, especially trades, but the chances that Detroit gets their guy are looking ever sos slightly better. To quote the despicable Rebecca Black, We We We So Excited.
Let's see if I can get some dang paragraphs this time.
OK, here's the story. Two of the most prominent NFL Draft experts have recently updated their mock drafts and both have Nebraska cornerback Prince Amukamara falling to the Lions with pick #13.
If this indeed happens, it will be a tremendous stroke of luck. I'm not going to call it the greatest draft pick of all time until Amukamara actually plays on the field in a real game, and who knows if that will even happen until 2012. I'm resisting the urge to get too excited.
But I truly think that Amukamara will be a better pro than Patrick Peterson (who is being touted as the best CB prospect since Deion Sanders), and Amukamara is just a few seasons away from joining Revis and Asomugha as elite shutdown corners. If he somehow slips past the Texans at pick #11, it will be amazing.
But you know what else would be amazing? If this stupid website let me use paragraphs.
OK, here's the story. Two of the most prominent NFL Draft experts have recently updated their mock drafts and both have Nebraska cornerback Prince Amukamara falling to the Lions with pick #13.
If this indeed happens, it will be a tremendous stroke of luck. I'm not going to call it the greatest draft pick of all time until Amukamara actually plays on the field in a real game, and who knows if that will even happen until 2012. I'm resisting the urge to get too excited.
But I truly think that Amukamara will be a better pro than Patrick Peterson (who is being touted as the best CB prospect since Deion Sanders), and Amukamara is just a few seasons away from joining Revis and Asomugha as elite shutdown corners. If he somehow slips past the Texans at pick #11, it will be amazing.
But you know what else would be amazing? If this stupid website let me use paragraphs.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
NBA PLAYOFF PREVIEW
*EDIT* - sorry about the stupid lack of paragraphs. This website is trash.
You might not know this about me, but I'm a pretty huge NBA fan. I follow the NFL more closely, but the NBA still holds a special place in my heart. Obviously I'm more excited when the Pistons aren't a useless pile of crap, but nonetheless, this has quietly been one of the best regular seasons since the early 90s. We have likable superstars, at least 3 great teams, at least 7 really good teams, and a super-villain that everyone can cheer against. The playoffs (*EDIT - which start tomorrow!) haven't been officially seeded yet, but we know that Chicago and San Antonio have number one seeds and we know the Conference Finals are going to be memorable. We know who the field of 16 is, and we feel terrible for Steve Nash, who will be watching from home for the first time in since 2003. Let's take a look at the presumed match ups, the predictions, and some thoughts on a great season.
East: 1 vs. 8
Indiana @ Chicago
It's pretty amazing to me that Chicago clinched the #1 seed with four games to play, ESPECIALLY when you consider that they were the only playoff team in the East to be hit with major injuries. Both Noah and Boozer missed about a month, and yet the Bulls kept on winning just enough to beat out the Heat and Celtics. For that reason, and not merely because we all hate LeBron James, Derrick Rose should be the 2011 MVP. And he will be.
This series won't be riveting, unless the Bulls struggle from over-confidence and let Indy win one of the first two games. Shouldn't happen. The greatest strength of this Chicago team isn't actually Rose's dominant athleticism or hyper-competitiveness or prudent unselfishness (though those things certainly help), but the greatest strength is the defensive-minded beastliness of the bench. It's similar to the 2004 Pistons,who brought Lindsey Hunter and Darvin Ham and Mike James off the bench just to pester and irritate and create timely turnovers and pump up the crowd. They were expert 'hustle defenders,' and Chicago has very similar players in Taj Gibson and Corey Brewer. Plus, both teams featured a 7-foot Turk, so that counts for something.
The Pacers are just lucky to make the postseason with a measly 37 (they'll finish with 38 or 39) wins. They still don't have much of an identity except 'Danny Granger and the Flying Whities.' Bulls in 4.
West 1 vs. 8
Memphis @ San Antonio
Technically, the Hornets could lose their remaining games to wind up in the 8th spot, but let's say it's Memphis for argument's sake. This isn't as easy as it seems. The Spurs are currently in their worst stretch of the season (lost 6 of 10) while Duncan battles injuries and the starters play limited minutes. Coach Poppovich won't let them lose this series, but the Grizz won't roll over and die either. Memphis plays a fierce brand of defense, especially on the perimeter. If they had drawn a different matchup (say Oklahoma City) they might be able to cause some problems. But the Spurs are smart, sophisticated, and ruthlessly experienced. They will not get caught up in the boredom of a 1 vs. 8 matchup. San Antonio in 5.
East: 2 vs. 7 and East 3 vs. 6
This is where it gets dicey. The Heat and Celtics are tied for the 2 and 3 seeds, while New York is tied with Philadelphia for spots 6 and 7. I'd love to see a LeBron-Carmelo first round, but unfortunately I think Miami will end up facing Philly in the 2-7 matchup. (Note: Miami just blasted Boston tonight by 23 points to practically clinch the 2 seed). But despite the massive mismatch in talent, Miami-Philly won't be a series of four straight blowouts. At least I hope not.
Miami's glaring weakness all season has been an intangible one: an utter lack of on-court chemistry which stems from having two alpha dogs and one awkward dinosaur-looking big man who used to be miscast as an alpha dog, while being coached by a 23 year old Asian dude who might not even be able to dribble a basketball and makes roughly one-tenth of the yearly salary of his star players, and a supporting cast that wouldn't even make the JV squad at Duke. LeBron and Wade have proven that they don't know how to share the ball, and aren't really interested in learning. If 79 games wasn't enough for them to figure it out, why would 3 more make a difference? They've relied on sheer athletic freakishness to win 50+ games, and they'll use the same strategy in the postseason and see how far it takes them. It should be enough to defeat the Sixers in a tough-fought 6 game series.
Why tough-fought? Because Philly has freakish athletes too. Not like LeBron or Wade, but close. Andre Iguodala can defend either Wade or LeBron as well as anyone in the NBA, and should be considered the runner-up for defensive MVP (behind Dwight Howard of course), and young Thadeus Young is a very solid defender as well. Down low, Elton Brand has been much consistently better than Bosh all year, especially defensively. For Miami to dominate this series, their superstar guards are going to need to be flying around in the paint collecting rebounds while Bosh hides nervously near the free-throw line. They'll win the series, but they'll expend a lot of energy doing so. And as we learned from the great Michael Jordan, a big part of winning the postseason is conserving energy and then unleashing a wave of hyper-dominant fury when the game is on the line. Miami doesn't have a closer. That's going to be their downfall. More on that later I guess.
In the other first-round matchup, we'll probably see Boston against the Knicks, which pits the NBA's best foursome against the NBA's best threesome. I say New York has the best threesome because Chauncey has something that Bosh and Noah don't have - playoff swagger. Chauncey has leadership, experience, and confidence in the postseason. Those are the kind of things that you want from your third wheel. However, Boston still clearly has the mismatch of talent due to New York's complete disinterest in playing defense. Amare Stoudemire should enjoy a nice series now that Boston lacks a formidable big man (thank you, Danny Ainge, for trading Kendrick Perkins away and getting nothing but bench minutes in return), and Carmelo will put on a show while being guarded by the very aged Paul Pierce. I expect Melo and Amare to both average 30+ in this series and the Knicks to have little trouble scoring points. But I also expect the Celtics to score an average of 115 per game and Rajon Rondo to set some kind of playoff record by averaging 18 assists per game in this series. Knicks make it thrilling, but Celtics win in 6 games.
West: 2 vs. 7
New Orleans @ Lakers
Like I said, this could end up being Memphis, and theoretically Portland could fall to the 7 seed too. But most probably it's Chris Paul and the ragtag gang against Kobe and the galactic superpower. Won't even be close. Lakers in 4. West: 3 vs. 6 Portland @ Dallas This is my upset special for round one. It's a perfect storm for Dallas: playing against a superior rebounding team with tons of elite defenders and a little bit of outside shooting. Dirk Nowitzki will have his hands full with Marcus Camby, Gerald Wallace, and LaMarcus Aldridge, three defensive-minded bigs who will challenge his shot and beat him to the glass. Expect Dirk to shoot lots of 7-25 games in this series with about 4 rebounds per game, and Dallas's offense to revert to 'Stand Still and Watch Dirk Shoot' mode. Offensively, Portland is probably the worst of the 16 playoff teams, but defensively they have tons of weapons. Portland wins the series in 6 low-scoring, ugly games.
East: 4 vs. 5
Atlanta @ Orlando
Last year these were the second and third seeds in the East. Now they're 4 and 5. Just goes to show how much better the East is this year, because neither of these teams got considerably worse. You might remember last year's playoffs, when these teams met in the second round and Orlando swept Atlanta while winning by margins of 43, 14, 30, and 14, and then Joe Johnson blaming his own fans for not inspiring the team enough. Then Atlanta rewarded him with a $120 million dollar contract, and he responded by playing his worst season in six years and having the lowest three-point percentage in the NBA. Nice.
This year, expect a difference series with the same outcome. Al Horford is twice the player he was a year ago, especially offensively. His jump shot has improved and he's become one of the best passing big men in the NBA. However, one thing that hasn't improved is his height. He's still 6'10", and that's like when Detroit said Ben Wallace was 6'9", even though if you saw him in person he was no taller than 6'5". Horford is probably more like 6'7". Which makes him five inches shorter (and 30 pounds lighter) than Dwight Howard. Also, I'm pretty sure Howard could pick up Horford and toss him into the upper deck like a javelin. For a 4 and 5 seed, these teams are both extremely good. But, both are fatally flawed and don't stand a chance in the second round. I'll give the advantage to Orlando since they clobbered the Hawks last year and own a serious mental advantage. Magic in 6.
West: 4 vs. 5
Denver @ Oklahoma City
There's this thing called the Ewing Theory that sportswriter Bill Simmons talks about. It basically says that when a team loses a star player (via trade, free agency, injury, retirement, or whatever), that team actually plays better instead of worse, at least for a while. They rally around the collective assumption that they are doomed without star player X, whom they didn't even like in the first place, and they use that resentment and underdog-spirit to fuel their playoff run. We saw the Giants do this after Tiki Barber retired, and the Volunteers in 1998 when Manning went pro, and there are countless examples. My favorite example was the 1999 NFL season, when Barry Sanders retired just days before training camp, and the hopeless Lions somehow rallied to an 8-4 start and led the NFC all the way into December. (Then lost 4 straight and got thwacked in the playoffs, and haven't been back since... shutup)
Anyway, one of the best modern examples of the Ewing Theory happened this year, when the inevitable Carmelo trade finally happened and Denver was doomed to the cellar by just about everybody. But one problem happened. They believed in themselves. That tends to happen when you have a Hall of Fame coach who is battling cancer. With a myriad of tattoos and thug attitudes, the superstar-less Nuggets actually player better without Carmelo than with his half-committed self. Just last week, emerging point guard Ty Lawson made 10 three pointers in a single game. In a row. Without a miss. The Nuggets are 17-6 without Melo (73.9% winning percentage) and were 32-26 with him (55.1% winning percentage). Without Carmelo, they are the third-best team in the NBA. Yeah.
But after all that, you probably think I'm taking the Nuggets. Sorry I misled you. I'm not. I just love the Thunder. Denver doesn't have a defensive ace who can contain Kevin Durant in the slightest, and this matchup is terrible for them. Speed against speed, youth against youth; advantage goes to the team with two All Stars and the back-to-back scoring champion.
By the way, if you had told me Durant would average 27.8 ppg (2.4 ppg less than last season) and still win the scoring title by a full point, I would have said "no stinking way." How is it possible that no one else scored 28 per game, when the scoring leader has been 30+ in nine of the last ten years? Not since The Canswer in 1998 has a scoring title been so low. How did this happen? It's simple. Wade & LeBron, Carmelo & Amare, four of the best scorers are teammates. Kobe could have smashed Durant five years ago, but he only cares about real titles, not scoring titles, which is why he's still the best player in the NBA. Rose and Dirk are perennial 22+ guys, but 28 is a stretch. Durant could have and should have scored 32 ppg this year, but somehow won the scoring title with a mere 27.8. Amazing. Thunder in 7. On to the semifinals.
SECOND ROUND East: Orlando @ Chicago
And this is where the action gets good. The Magic shouldn't present a terribly difficult matchup for D-Rose and Co., but there's something to be said for playoff experience. Orlando can rely on Jameer Nelson's calming presence and slow-it-down mentality to keep them focused and competitive in each game, while forcing the Bulls to play mistake-free and smart. Guarding Howard will be tough for the undersized Noah and Boozer, but the Bulls have 48 year old Kurt Thomas for a reason. And the aforementioned Taj Gibson.
Chicago will win this series by sending Dwight to the free throw line 16 times per game, where he'll shoot 40%. It's a shame, because Dwight has the physical prowess to be an All Time great, but lacks the mental aspects of the game that are necessary to just say "Screw It, I'm Winning This Series Myself." You can't win an NBA Finals when your unquestioned best player shoots like Ben Wallace. Who does Orlando turn to in a one point game with 8 seconds left and the ball at halfcourt? Jason Richardson? Gilbert Arenas? Turkoglu? Yikes. I'll say Bulls win in 5, but at least 3 of them will be close.
West: Portland @ San Antonio
If Portland does indeed upset Dallas, the Spurs get a gift. If the first round is chalk, they'll face the race-around Thunder who will probably send Tim Duncan into a coma with their speed and energy. Portland is a much, much better matchup for them. So is Dallas for that matter. As a closet Thunder fan, I'm hoping Dallas takes down the Blazers so the Thunder have a better chance at upsetting the Spurs instead of the Lakers. But, alas, I'm picking Portland in round one. So this should be your typical San Antonio series: boring, physical, every shot is contested, and the Spurs win. 5 games should do it.
East: Boston @ Miami
Last night's shellacking might be the most important game of the regular season if these teams meet in a game 7. Both teams are stacked like its 1987, but both teams are majorly flawed. Miami thinks they won the title back in July, and Boston is still recovering from the Perkins trade, plus they have 3 star players who are ages 33, 34, and 35. Not to mention they are relying on Shaquille (39) and Jermaine (36 (32 plus a year for each knee surgery)) O'Neal to play significant minutes, and an awkward quartet of terrible international players (Carlos Arroyo, Nenad Krstic, Troy Murphy, Sasha Pavlovic). If you're not a basketball aficionado, you might not think those are real names, but they are, sadly. And yes, Krstic is spelled correctly.
But then there's Miami, who is counting on the frontcourt of Juwan Howard, Erick Dampier, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Udonis Haslem - average age 35 - and the equally dreadful backcourt of Mike Bibby, Mario Chalmers, and Mike Miller, who have combined to shoot 356 threes this year and made exactly 2 of them. Boston's strategy was: we got our Big 4, now let's bring in two washed up O'Neals and 4 weird white guys. Miami's was: okay, we got LeBron, now let's save some cash by letting washed up veterans come here and try to win a ring. Either way, this series is going to have more washed up creatures than a Lake Michigan seashore.
But that's just the 8-10 minutes of bench play. Most of this series is going to be unbelievable, like a miniature All Star game. There will be at least 5 Hall of Famers playing heavy minutes, and possibly 7 if Rondo and Bosh have productive careers for the next 10 years, and at least 1 more sitting on the bench (Shaq). 8 potential Hall of Famers in a single series. That has to be close to a modern day record right? This might be reminiscient of the 2004 Pistons who ran past unsuspecting opponents because they didn't realize the massive mismatch at the point guard position. Miami will probably try to defend Rondo with Wade, but even that's not going to work. If they put Chalmers/Bibby on him, forget about it. The best strategy for Miami is to not even play a point guard. Just let LeBron take the ball up the court, have Wade guard Rondo, and play three big guys for rebounds and defense. Why waste a spot on Chalmers? Hopefully, Erik Spoelstra doesn't read my blog, otherwise the Heat just might sweep their way through the playoffs.
These games are obviously going to be very watchable and entertaining and will dominate sports coverage during the month of May. All of America will be watching, rooting against Miami, rooting for Boston. If LeBron goes down, it will be a moment of national euphoria, like when Michael Phelps won 8 gold medals. It will be a victory for the little guy, for the ones who played it fair, for the guys who didn't hold a national press conference under the guise of charity to announce that they are stabbing their home town in the back and taking the easy way out. It will be a victory for MJ and Kobe's legacies, for basketball, for sports. It will be one big giant "FU LeBron" and it will be the first championship the city of Cleveland has ever experienced. This series is going 7 games, and it will be 7 awesome games. Unless Boston wins their remaining two games and Miami loses at least one of their last two, this game will be in Miami. You know what would be awesome? If game 7 could be played in Cleveland. Now THAT I would pay to watch.
West: Thunder @ Lakers
Holy crap. Is this still really just the second round? Does one of these teams really have to lose before the Conference Finals? Unlike the mega-competitive East, these are really the only two teams in the West who I think could win the Finals or even deserve to play in the Finals. No disrespect to San Antonio, they played their butts off to secure the #1 seed, but they're just a few years too old. The winner of this series is going to thump the Spurs, and unfortunately I think it has to be the Lakers. My hope all season was for the Lakers to run into a tough second round matchup and lose, allowing the Thunder to sneak past them and roll into the Finals where they would meet the Bulls, thus I would like whichever team wins it all. Sadly, the Thunder have run into a brick wall here. How are they seriously supposed to stop the Gasol/Bynum/Odom trifecta? Ron Artest was put on this earth for one reason and one reason only: to defend Kevin Durant. And there's still the minor issue of Kobe having small traces of Michael Jordan in his blood.
It's just an utter fiasco for Oklahoma City. Sure, they'll probably win 2 or 3 games, and they'll probably take advantage of Phil Jackson's overconfidence, and LA has no answer for Russell Westbrook who will average a 28-12-8 in this series and cement himself as an actual, no longer supposed, but an actual NBA superstar. But there's just no stopping LA without some big guys. Kendrick Perkins was a wonderful acquisition, but it's not enough. Serge Ibaka is too raw, Nick Collison is too white, and Nazr Mohammed is too much Nazr Mohammed. People don't realize how good Pau Gasol is. Lakers in 6.
East: Conference Finals
Oh, I guess I have to pick a winner of the Boston-Miami series first huh? Shoot ... Well, I guess I'll go with Miami, just because of homecourt in game 7, and because I'm not completely convinced that LeBron wasn't just coasting through the regular season waiting to unleash some kind of super-human monstrosity on the country who now hates him. So, Miami @ Chicago.
Sub-plots in this series: How about the fact that LeBron AND Wade AND Bosh ALL almost went to Chicago this offseason, and all of them turned it down to instead play together, and STILL without any of them Derrick Rose led the Bulls to the #1 seed, while Miami became the most hated team in America since the 1980 Russians? That should work right?
How badly do the Heatles wish they could travel back to May and play with Rose instead of each other? If Miami survives the Boston series, it will be solely on the shoulders of LeBron and Wade playing 47 minutes a night. Now they're running into the hyper-defensive Bulls who contest every shot, every dribble, and don't allow easy layups. The Heat lead the NBA in fast-break points (LeBron is #1 in the league, Wade is #2), but they also lead the NBA in missed jump shots with 15 seconds left on the shot clock because they think they are too awesome to miss, but they don't realize that the defense is practically BEGGING them to shoot jump shots, because someone in LeBron's posse forgot to inform him that he's not actually a very good jump shooter.
And Wade is worse. Wade shot 30% from three point land, while LeBron shot 32%. Together, they averaged about 7 attempts per game, and made about 2.2. That's not very smart considering that 116 NBA players shot a better percentage than LeBron and Wade. And it's not just threes. They both stink at 18 footers. They just don't have that Kobe/MJ aspect of their games. Heck, even at the free throw line they both struggle.
Both players shot exactly 649 free throws this season, or about 8 per game. Even more weirdly, both players made exactly 491 of them, or 75.7%. That's not a bad percentage, if you're a 7'2" center. But for a couple guys who score 27 per game and are supposed to be a super-dominant offensive machines, it's not very good. Kobe and Durant shot 82% and 88%, respectively. Jordan shot 83%, Bird was 89%, Magic was 85%. The fact is, LeBron and Wade aren't amazing shooters. If they get into a shooting match with the Bulls, they'll not only lose, they'll get demolished.
Remember LeBron's epic collapse against Boston in last year's semifinals? People thought maybe he was quitting on Cleveland, losing on purpose, mailing it in. How about the reality that he got exposed by a great defensive team as a superior athlete who doesn't have a superior jump shot? Remember when LeBron scored 28 straight points against the hapless Pistons in 2006? At the time I thought I was watching the next Michael Jordan. Now I realize what I was watching: the luckiest string of jump shots in LeBron's career. I'm not knocking LeBron the athlete. He's the most elite physical freak I've ever seen. He can dominate on both sides of the ball, and the combination of size, strength and power has literally never been equaled in any sport. He's literally like Magic mixed with Karl Malone. No qualms about his dominance or greatness. But LeBron's problem is that he believes he's a mix of Magic, Malone, and Ray Allen. He thinks he can knock down jumpers all day long. But he can't. And Chicago knows this, which is why they'll let him shoot, which is why the Bulls will win the series, in 5 games, and finally America, and Cleveland, will rejoice.
West: Conference Finals Lakers @ Spurs
How many times have we seen this? It's almost too predictable; maybe I should have gone with the Thunder after all. Or maybe we keep seeing these two teams because Kobe and Duncan play at a different level during the playoffs, and because Phil and Popp are two of the best coaches in the history of sports. I don't have much of a bias in this series. I don't like either team; I don't hate either team. For periods of time I've hated them both, but time and the Pistons suckiness have made me neutral. I'm cheering for the Spurs simply because I want Antonio McDyess to get a well-deserved ring.
When it comes to Kobe, I'm not a hater, I'm a realist. He's a top 8 All Time player with 5 rings, and I won't deny that. I'm also an appreciator, but not a fan, of what Duncan does and how he consistently wins. If Kobe wins this year's title, he moves into The Discussion. He doesn't surpass Michael Jordan, and I firmly don't believe anyone ever will. But a sixth championship puts Kobe in the Magic-Bird-Oscar-Russell-Wilt discussion for 'Who's the Second Best Player Ever?' It also elevates him far above Shaq and Duncan as the Best Player Since MJ. Conversely, if Duncan captures a fifth ring it lifts him above Shaq as the best modern day big man, and it probably unites him with Kobe in the top 10 conversation. This would be Timmy's most impressive title to date.
San Antonio's sole hope in this series is using homecourt advantage to the full and extending the series to 7 game. That's probably not going to happen. They just don't have enough defense. Who's going to guard Kobe? Richard Jefferson? Please. I'm going to take the Lakers in a four game sweep. Which leads us to...
NBA Finals Bulls @ Lakers
Ah yes, Phil Jackson against his old team, Kobe against the city of MJ, the best player in the league against the MVP, the past against the future. Noah guards Gasol in an epic battle for ugliness, Boozer matches perfectly with Odom as 6'7" guys who claim to be 6'10", and Kyle Korver and Luke Walton comb each other's hair. This will be fun. Both of these teams were really built for one another. Ron Artest will hound Rose, while the Bulls will send Deng and Brewer at Kobe. It's going to be physical, brutal, smart, technical.
This is going to be one heck of an NBA Finals. I think it will go 7 games, and that means it heads back to Chicago. With 20 seconds left in a 94-94 game, I think Derrick Rose makes the play that makes him a legend, and Chicago celebrates a completely unexpected championship, their first since MJ, and Phil Jackson immediately retires, only to coach the Knicks in 2012.
Then, in the 2011 NBA Draft in June, the Cleveland Cavaliers will take Arizona's Derrick Williams (6'9" power forward who is sort of a skinnier LeBron, though obviously not as good a ball handler) with the #1 pick, and the Pistons will completely waste the #6 pick on an outside shooting international big man (Donatas Motiejunas from Lithuania, perhaps), thanks to Joe Dumars's chronic stubborness that he has a capable frontcourt in Stuckey/Hamilton/Gordon, and eventually Dumars will be fired for wasting yet another first round pick, but it won't matter, because the NBA season is going to be locked out for several months in 2011, so you better enjoy this postseason.
You might not know this about me, but I'm a pretty huge NBA fan. I follow the NFL more closely, but the NBA still holds a special place in my heart. Obviously I'm more excited when the Pistons aren't a useless pile of crap, but nonetheless, this has quietly been one of the best regular seasons since the early 90s. We have likable superstars, at least 3 great teams, at least 7 really good teams, and a super-villain that everyone can cheer against. The playoffs (*EDIT - which start tomorrow!) haven't been officially seeded yet, but we know that Chicago and San Antonio have number one seeds and we know the Conference Finals are going to be memorable. We know who the field of 16 is, and we feel terrible for Steve Nash, who will be watching from home for the first time in since 2003. Let's take a look at the presumed match ups, the predictions, and some thoughts on a great season.
East: 1 vs. 8
Indiana @ Chicago
It's pretty amazing to me that Chicago clinched the #1 seed with four games to play, ESPECIALLY when you consider that they were the only playoff team in the East to be hit with major injuries. Both Noah and Boozer missed about a month, and yet the Bulls kept on winning just enough to beat out the Heat and Celtics. For that reason, and not merely because we all hate LeBron James, Derrick Rose should be the 2011 MVP. And he will be.
This series won't be riveting, unless the Bulls struggle from over-confidence and let Indy win one of the first two games. Shouldn't happen. The greatest strength of this Chicago team isn't actually Rose's dominant athleticism or hyper-competitiveness or prudent unselfishness (though those things certainly help), but the greatest strength is the defensive-minded beastliness of the bench. It's similar to the 2004 Pistons,who brought Lindsey Hunter and Darvin Ham and Mike James off the bench just to pester and irritate and create timely turnovers and pump up the crowd. They were expert 'hustle defenders,' and Chicago has very similar players in Taj Gibson and Corey Brewer. Plus, both teams featured a 7-foot Turk, so that counts for something.
The Pacers are just lucky to make the postseason with a measly 37 (they'll finish with 38 or 39) wins. They still don't have much of an identity except 'Danny Granger and the Flying Whities.' Bulls in 4.
West 1 vs. 8
Memphis @ San Antonio
Technically, the Hornets could lose their remaining games to wind up in the 8th spot, but let's say it's Memphis for argument's sake. This isn't as easy as it seems. The Spurs are currently in their worst stretch of the season (lost 6 of 10) while Duncan battles injuries and the starters play limited minutes. Coach Poppovich won't let them lose this series, but the Grizz won't roll over and die either. Memphis plays a fierce brand of defense, especially on the perimeter. If they had drawn a different matchup (say Oklahoma City) they might be able to cause some problems. But the Spurs are smart, sophisticated, and ruthlessly experienced. They will not get caught up in the boredom of a 1 vs. 8 matchup. San Antonio in 5.
East: 2 vs. 7 and East 3 vs. 6
This is where it gets dicey. The Heat and Celtics are tied for the 2 and 3 seeds, while New York is tied with Philadelphia for spots 6 and 7. I'd love to see a LeBron-Carmelo first round, but unfortunately I think Miami will end up facing Philly in the 2-7 matchup. (Note: Miami just blasted Boston tonight by 23 points to practically clinch the 2 seed). But despite the massive mismatch in talent, Miami-Philly won't be a series of four straight blowouts. At least I hope not.
Miami's glaring weakness all season has been an intangible one: an utter lack of on-court chemistry which stems from having two alpha dogs and one awkward dinosaur-looking big man who used to be miscast as an alpha dog, while being coached by a 23 year old Asian dude who might not even be able to dribble a basketball and makes roughly one-tenth of the yearly salary of his star players, and a supporting cast that wouldn't even make the JV squad at Duke. LeBron and Wade have proven that they don't know how to share the ball, and aren't really interested in learning. If 79 games wasn't enough for them to figure it out, why would 3 more make a difference? They've relied on sheer athletic freakishness to win 50+ games, and they'll use the same strategy in the postseason and see how far it takes them. It should be enough to defeat the Sixers in a tough-fought 6 game series.
Why tough-fought? Because Philly has freakish athletes too. Not like LeBron or Wade, but close. Andre Iguodala can defend either Wade or LeBron as well as anyone in the NBA, and should be considered the runner-up for defensive MVP (behind Dwight Howard of course), and young Thadeus Young is a very solid defender as well. Down low, Elton Brand has been much consistently better than Bosh all year, especially defensively. For Miami to dominate this series, their superstar guards are going to need to be flying around in the paint collecting rebounds while Bosh hides nervously near the free-throw line. They'll win the series, but they'll expend a lot of energy doing so. And as we learned from the great Michael Jordan, a big part of winning the postseason is conserving energy and then unleashing a wave of hyper-dominant fury when the game is on the line. Miami doesn't have a closer. That's going to be their downfall. More on that later I guess.
In the other first-round matchup, we'll probably see Boston against the Knicks, which pits the NBA's best foursome against the NBA's best threesome. I say New York has the best threesome because Chauncey has something that Bosh and Noah don't have - playoff swagger. Chauncey has leadership, experience, and confidence in the postseason. Those are the kind of things that you want from your third wheel. However, Boston still clearly has the mismatch of talent due to New York's complete disinterest in playing defense. Amare Stoudemire should enjoy a nice series now that Boston lacks a formidable big man (thank you, Danny Ainge, for trading Kendrick Perkins away and getting nothing but bench minutes in return), and Carmelo will put on a show while being guarded by the very aged Paul Pierce. I expect Melo and Amare to both average 30+ in this series and the Knicks to have little trouble scoring points. But I also expect the Celtics to score an average of 115 per game and Rajon Rondo to set some kind of playoff record by averaging 18 assists per game in this series. Knicks make it thrilling, but Celtics win in 6 games.
West: 2 vs. 7
New Orleans @ Lakers
Like I said, this could end up being Memphis, and theoretically Portland could fall to the 7 seed too. But most probably it's Chris Paul and the ragtag gang against Kobe and the galactic superpower. Won't even be close. Lakers in 4. West: 3 vs. 6 Portland @ Dallas This is my upset special for round one. It's a perfect storm for Dallas: playing against a superior rebounding team with tons of elite defenders and a little bit of outside shooting. Dirk Nowitzki will have his hands full with Marcus Camby, Gerald Wallace, and LaMarcus Aldridge, three defensive-minded bigs who will challenge his shot and beat him to the glass. Expect Dirk to shoot lots of 7-25 games in this series with about 4 rebounds per game, and Dallas's offense to revert to 'Stand Still and Watch Dirk Shoot' mode. Offensively, Portland is probably the worst of the 16 playoff teams, but defensively they have tons of weapons. Portland wins the series in 6 low-scoring, ugly games.
East: 4 vs. 5
Atlanta @ Orlando
Last year these were the second and third seeds in the East. Now they're 4 and 5. Just goes to show how much better the East is this year, because neither of these teams got considerably worse. You might remember last year's playoffs, when these teams met in the second round and Orlando swept Atlanta while winning by margins of 43, 14, 30, and 14, and then Joe Johnson blaming his own fans for not inspiring the team enough. Then Atlanta rewarded him with a $120 million dollar contract, and he responded by playing his worst season in six years and having the lowest three-point percentage in the NBA. Nice.
This year, expect a difference series with the same outcome. Al Horford is twice the player he was a year ago, especially offensively. His jump shot has improved and he's become one of the best passing big men in the NBA. However, one thing that hasn't improved is his height. He's still 6'10", and that's like when Detroit said Ben Wallace was 6'9", even though if you saw him in person he was no taller than 6'5". Horford is probably more like 6'7". Which makes him five inches shorter (and 30 pounds lighter) than Dwight Howard. Also, I'm pretty sure Howard could pick up Horford and toss him into the upper deck like a javelin. For a 4 and 5 seed, these teams are both extremely good. But, both are fatally flawed and don't stand a chance in the second round. I'll give the advantage to Orlando since they clobbered the Hawks last year and own a serious mental advantage. Magic in 6.
West: 4 vs. 5
Denver @ Oklahoma City
There's this thing called the Ewing Theory that sportswriter Bill Simmons talks about. It basically says that when a team loses a star player (via trade, free agency, injury, retirement, or whatever), that team actually plays better instead of worse, at least for a while. They rally around the collective assumption that they are doomed without star player X, whom they didn't even like in the first place, and they use that resentment and underdog-spirit to fuel their playoff run. We saw the Giants do this after Tiki Barber retired, and the Volunteers in 1998 when Manning went pro, and there are countless examples. My favorite example was the 1999 NFL season, when Barry Sanders retired just days before training camp, and the hopeless Lions somehow rallied to an 8-4 start and led the NFC all the way into December. (Then lost 4 straight and got thwacked in the playoffs, and haven't been back since... shutup)
Anyway, one of the best modern examples of the Ewing Theory happened this year, when the inevitable Carmelo trade finally happened and Denver was doomed to the cellar by just about everybody. But one problem happened. They believed in themselves. That tends to happen when you have a Hall of Fame coach who is battling cancer. With a myriad of tattoos and thug attitudes, the superstar-less Nuggets actually player better without Carmelo than with his half-committed self. Just last week, emerging point guard Ty Lawson made 10 three pointers in a single game. In a row. Without a miss. The Nuggets are 17-6 without Melo (73.9% winning percentage) and were 32-26 with him (55.1% winning percentage). Without Carmelo, they are the third-best team in the NBA. Yeah.
But after all that, you probably think I'm taking the Nuggets. Sorry I misled you. I'm not. I just love the Thunder. Denver doesn't have a defensive ace who can contain Kevin Durant in the slightest, and this matchup is terrible for them. Speed against speed, youth against youth; advantage goes to the team with two All Stars and the back-to-back scoring champion.
By the way, if you had told me Durant would average 27.8 ppg (2.4 ppg less than last season) and still win the scoring title by a full point, I would have said "no stinking way." How is it possible that no one else scored 28 per game, when the scoring leader has been 30+ in nine of the last ten years? Not since The Canswer in 1998 has a scoring title been so low. How did this happen? It's simple. Wade & LeBron, Carmelo & Amare, four of the best scorers are teammates. Kobe could have smashed Durant five years ago, but he only cares about real titles, not scoring titles, which is why he's still the best player in the NBA. Rose and Dirk are perennial 22+ guys, but 28 is a stretch. Durant could have and should have scored 32 ppg this year, but somehow won the scoring title with a mere 27.8. Amazing. Thunder in 7. On to the semifinals.
SECOND ROUND East: Orlando @ Chicago
And this is where the action gets good. The Magic shouldn't present a terribly difficult matchup for D-Rose and Co., but there's something to be said for playoff experience. Orlando can rely on Jameer Nelson's calming presence and slow-it-down mentality to keep them focused and competitive in each game, while forcing the Bulls to play mistake-free and smart. Guarding Howard will be tough for the undersized Noah and Boozer, but the Bulls have 48 year old Kurt Thomas for a reason. And the aforementioned Taj Gibson.
Chicago will win this series by sending Dwight to the free throw line 16 times per game, where he'll shoot 40%. It's a shame, because Dwight has the physical prowess to be an All Time great, but lacks the mental aspects of the game that are necessary to just say "Screw It, I'm Winning This Series Myself." You can't win an NBA Finals when your unquestioned best player shoots like Ben Wallace. Who does Orlando turn to in a one point game with 8 seconds left and the ball at halfcourt? Jason Richardson? Gilbert Arenas? Turkoglu? Yikes. I'll say Bulls win in 5, but at least 3 of them will be close.
West: Portland @ San Antonio
If Portland does indeed upset Dallas, the Spurs get a gift. If the first round is chalk, they'll face the race-around Thunder who will probably send Tim Duncan into a coma with their speed and energy. Portland is a much, much better matchup for them. So is Dallas for that matter. As a closet Thunder fan, I'm hoping Dallas takes down the Blazers so the Thunder have a better chance at upsetting the Spurs instead of the Lakers. But, alas, I'm picking Portland in round one. So this should be your typical San Antonio series: boring, physical, every shot is contested, and the Spurs win. 5 games should do it.
East: Boston @ Miami
Last night's shellacking might be the most important game of the regular season if these teams meet in a game 7. Both teams are stacked like its 1987, but both teams are majorly flawed. Miami thinks they won the title back in July, and Boston is still recovering from the Perkins trade, plus they have 3 star players who are ages 33, 34, and 35. Not to mention they are relying on Shaquille (39) and Jermaine (36 (32 plus a year for each knee surgery)) O'Neal to play significant minutes, and an awkward quartet of terrible international players (Carlos Arroyo, Nenad Krstic, Troy Murphy, Sasha Pavlovic). If you're not a basketball aficionado, you might not think those are real names, but they are, sadly. And yes, Krstic is spelled correctly.
But then there's Miami, who is counting on the frontcourt of Juwan Howard, Erick Dampier, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Udonis Haslem - average age 35 - and the equally dreadful backcourt of Mike Bibby, Mario Chalmers, and Mike Miller, who have combined to shoot 356 threes this year and made exactly 2 of them. Boston's strategy was: we got our Big 4, now let's bring in two washed up O'Neals and 4 weird white guys. Miami's was: okay, we got LeBron, now let's save some cash by letting washed up veterans come here and try to win a ring. Either way, this series is going to have more washed up creatures than a Lake Michigan seashore.
But that's just the 8-10 minutes of bench play. Most of this series is going to be unbelievable, like a miniature All Star game. There will be at least 5 Hall of Famers playing heavy minutes, and possibly 7 if Rondo and Bosh have productive careers for the next 10 years, and at least 1 more sitting on the bench (Shaq). 8 potential Hall of Famers in a single series. That has to be close to a modern day record right? This might be reminiscient of the 2004 Pistons who ran past unsuspecting opponents because they didn't realize the massive mismatch at the point guard position. Miami will probably try to defend Rondo with Wade, but even that's not going to work. If they put Chalmers/Bibby on him, forget about it. The best strategy for Miami is to not even play a point guard. Just let LeBron take the ball up the court, have Wade guard Rondo, and play three big guys for rebounds and defense. Why waste a spot on Chalmers? Hopefully, Erik Spoelstra doesn't read my blog, otherwise the Heat just might sweep their way through the playoffs.
These games are obviously going to be very watchable and entertaining and will dominate sports coverage during the month of May. All of America will be watching, rooting against Miami, rooting for Boston. If LeBron goes down, it will be a moment of national euphoria, like when Michael Phelps won 8 gold medals. It will be a victory for the little guy, for the ones who played it fair, for the guys who didn't hold a national press conference under the guise of charity to announce that they are stabbing their home town in the back and taking the easy way out. It will be a victory for MJ and Kobe's legacies, for basketball, for sports. It will be one big giant "FU LeBron" and it will be the first championship the city of Cleveland has ever experienced. This series is going 7 games, and it will be 7 awesome games. Unless Boston wins their remaining two games and Miami loses at least one of their last two, this game will be in Miami. You know what would be awesome? If game 7 could be played in Cleveland. Now THAT I would pay to watch.
West: Thunder @ Lakers
Holy crap. Is this still really just the second round? Does one of these teams really have to lose before the Conference Finals? Unlike the mega-competitive East, these are really the only two teams in the West who I think could win the Finals or even deserve to play in the Finals. No disrespect to San Antonio, they played their butts off to secure the #1 seed, but they're just a few years too old. The winner of this series is going to thump the Spurs, and unfortunately I think it has to be the Lakers. My hope all season was for the Lakers to run into a tough second round matchup and lose, allowing the Thunder to sneak past them and roll into the Finals where they would meet the Bulls, thus I would like whichever team wins it all. Sadly, the Thunder have run into a brick wall here. How are they seriously supposed to stop the Gasol/Bynum/Odom trifecta? Ron Artest was put on this earth for one reason and one reason only: to defend Kevin Durant. And there's still the minor issue of Kobe having small traces of Michael Jordan in his blood.
It's just an utter fiasco for Oklahoma City. Sure, they'll probably win 2 or 3 games, and they'll probably take advantage of Phil Jackson's overconfidence, and LA has no answer for Russell Westbrook who will average a 28-12-8 in this series and cement himself as an actual, no longer supposed, but an actual NBA superstar. But there's just no stopping LA without some big guys. Kendrick Perkins was a wonderful acquisition, but it's not enough. Serge Ibaka is too raw, Nick Collison is too white, and Nazr Mohammed is too much Nazr Mohammed. People don't realize how good Pau Gasol is. Lakers in 6.
East: Conference Finals
Oh, I guess I have to pick a winner of the Boston-Miami series first huh? Shoot ... Well, I guess I'll go with Miami, just because of homecourt in game 7, and because I'm not completely convinced that LeBron wasn't just coasting through the regular season waiting to unleash some kind of super-human monstrosity on the country who now hates him. So, Miami @ Chicago.
Sub-plots in this series: How about the fact that LeBron AND Wade AND Bosh ALL almost went to Chicago this offseason, and all of them turned it down to instead play together, and STILL without any of them Derrick Rose led the Bulls to the #1 seed, while Miami became the most hated team in America since the 1980 Russians? That should work right?
How badly do the Heatles wish they could travel back to May and play with Rose instead of each other? If Miami survives the Boston series, it will be solely on the shoulders of LeBron and Wade playing 47 minutes a night. Now they're running into the hyper-defensive Bulls who contest every shot, every dribble, and don't allow easy layups. The Heat lead the NBA in fast-break points (LeBron is #1 in the league, Wade is #2), but they also lead the NBA in missed jump shots with 15 seconds left on the shot clock because they think they are too awesome to miss, but they don't realize that the defense is practically BEGGING them to shoot jump shots, because someone in LeBron's posse forgot to inform him that he's not actually a very good jump shooter.
And Wade is worse. Wade shot 30% from three point land, while LeBron shot 32%. Together, they averaged about 7 attempts per game, and made about 2.2. That's not very smart considering that 116 NBA players shot a better percentage than LeBron and Wade. And it's not just threes. They both stink at 18 footers. They just don't have that Kobe/MJ aspect of their games. Heck, even at the free throw line they both struggle.
Both players shot exactly 649 free throws this season, or about 8 per game. Even more weirdly, both players made exactly 491 of them, or 75.7%. That's not a bad percentage, if you're a 7'2" center. But for a couple guys who score 27 per game and are supposed to be a super-dominant offensive machines, it's not very good. Kobe and Durant shot 82% and 88%, respectively. Jordan shot 83%, Bird was 89%, Magic was 85%. The fact is, LeBron and Wade aren't amazing shooters. If they get into a shooting match with the Bulls, they'll not only lose, they'll get demolished.
Remember LeBron's epic collapse against Boston in last year's semifinals? People thought maybe he was quitting on Cleveland, losing on purpose, mailing it in. How about the reality that he got exposed by a great defensive team as a superior athlete who doesn't have a superior jump shot? Remember when LeBron scored 28 straight points against the hapless Pistons in 2006? At the time I thought I was watching the next Michael Jordan. Now I realize what I was watching: the luckiest string of jump shots in LeBron's career. I'm not knocking LeBron the athlete. He's the most elite physical freak I've ever seen. He can dominate on both sides of the ball, and the combination of size, strength and power has literally never been equaled in any sport. He's literally like Magic mixed with Karl Malone. No qualms about his dominance or greatness. But LeBron's problem is that he believes he's a mix of Magic, Malone, and Ray Allen. He thinks he can knock down jumpers all day long. But he can't. And Chicago knows this, which is why they'll let him shoot, which is why the Bulls will win the series, in 5 games, and finally America, and Cleveland, will rejoice.
West: Conference Finals Lakers @ Spurs
How many times have we seen this? It's almost too predictable; maybe I should have gone with the Thunder after all. Or maybe we keep seeing these two teams because Kobe and Duncan play at a different level during the playoffs, and because Phil and Popp are two of the best coaches in the history of sports. I don't have much of a bias in this series. I don't like either team; I don't hate either team. For periods of time I've hated them both, but time and the Pistons suckiness have made me neutral. I'm cheering for the Spurs simply because I want Antonio McDyess to get a well-deserved ring.
When it comes to Kobe, I'm not a hater, I'm a realist. He's a top 8 All Time player with 5 rings, and I won't deny that. I'm also an appreciator, but not a fan, of what Duncan does and how he consistently wins. If Kobe wins this year's title, he moves into The Discussion. He doesn't surpass Michael Jordan, and I firmly don't believe anyone ever will. But a sixth championship puts Kobe in the Magic-Bird-Oscar-Russell-Wilt discussion for 'Who's the Second Best Player Ever?' It also elevates him far above Shaq and Duncan as the Best Player Since MJ. Conversely, if Duncan captures a fifth ring it lifts him above Shaq as the best modern day big man, and it probably unites him with Kobe in the top 10 conversation. This would be Timmy's most impressive title to date.
San Antonio's sole hope in this series is using homecourt advantage to the full and extending the series to 7 game. That's probably not going to happen. They just don't have enough defense. Who's going to guard Kobe? Richard Jefferson? Please. I'm going to take the Lakers in a four game sweep. Which leads us to...
NBA Finals Bulls @ Lakers
Ah yes, Phil Jackson against his old team, Kobe against the city of MJ, the best player in the league against the MVP, the past against the future. Noah guards Gasol in an epic battle for ugliness, Boozer matches perfectly with Odom as 6'7" guys who claim to be 6'10", and Kyle Korver and Luke Walton comb each other's hair. This will be fun. Both of these teams were really built for one another. Ron Artest will hound Rose, while the Bulls will send Deng and Brewer at Kobe. It's going to be physical, brutal, smart, technical.
This is going to be one heck of an NBA Finals. I think it will go 7 games, and that means it heads back to Chicago. With 20 seconds left in a 94-94 game, I think Derrick Rose makes the play that makes him a legend, and Chicago celebrates a completely unexpected championship, their first since MJ, and Phil Jackson immediately retires, only to coach the Knicks in 2012.
Then, in the 2011 NBA Draft in June, the Cleveland Cavaliers will take Arizona's Derrick Williams (6'9" power forward who is sort of a skinnier LeBron, though obviously not as good a ball handler) with the #1 pick, and the Pistons will completely waste the #6 pick on an outside shooting international big man (Donatas Motiejunas from Lithuania, perhaps), thanks to Joe Dumars's chronic stubborness that he has a capable frontcourt in Stuckey/Hamilton/Gordon, and eventually Dumars will be fired for wasting yet another first round pick, but it won't matter, because the NBA season is going to be locked out for several months in 2011, so you better enjoy this postseason.
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