This week: 11-5 ATS (12-4 straight up)
Season: 100-85-7 ATS (128-64 straight up)
Also, for the first time since early in week 1, I think the Lions have less than a 50% chance of making the playoffs.
Thursday: Eagles (4-7) @ Seahawks (4-7)
Predicted Line: PHI by 2.5
Actual Line: None (Vick)
Has there ever been a bigger discrepancy in talent between two 4-7 teams? The Eagles have the talent of a 15-1 team while Seattle would be 1-15 if they played against any other division. And yet, here we are, week 13, and the freaking Eagles are tied with the Seahawks in the NFC Cellar. I never believed in Vick as a legit NFL winner, but how can a defense with Asomugha/Samuel/Rodgers-Cromartie/Babin/Cole/Jenkins be ranked 15th in yards and 19th in points? And how can that team, which also has the NFL's leading rusher, be a staggering 1-5 at home? It's one of the most bizarre things I've seen in a while. It would have been like the Miami Heat going 30-52 and missing the playoffs.
So as we say our goodbyes to the Eagles' playoff hopes, let's reflect on the epic season that never happened and ask ourselves, what have we learned from the 2011 Philly Eagles. Exactly two things:
1. Don't give a $100 million dollar contract to someone who used to torture animals;
2. Don't build a defense without any linebackers or safeties.
Now Philly heads to Seattle to face the banged-up and mostly-talentless Seahawks who are always tough to beat at home for some odd reason. Vick was ruled out today, so with Vince Young the line will probably be set at PHI by 1.5 or something. I should pick the Eagles for obvious reasons, but I have a feeling that Philly has collapsed and will no longer be trying. Their season is over barring a 5-game winning streak, and so I'm going against common sense and picking the Seahawks on Thursday night, 23-13. Yikes.
Titans (6-5) @ Bills (5-6)
Predicted Line: TEN by 1.5
Actual Line: BUF by 1.5
Both of these teams are hanging on to their playoff hopes by a thread. Buffalo has put 9 starters on IR and is coming off a crushing loss to the Jets in which their best receiver pretended to shoot himself in the leg. With that in mind, I like the Titans, who must have enjoyed watching the rest of the AFC South implode this week. To recap:
-Houston lost their 2nd string quarterback for the year and now turns to T.J. Yates, plus they signed Jake Delhomme;
-Indy fired their D-coordinator and promoted Dan Orlovsky to starting QB;
-Jacksonville fired Jack Del Rio, the owner sold the team to a guy named Shahid from Chicago, and Blaine Gabbert is still really bad.
So I like the Titans. 27-17.
Chiefs (4-7) @ Bears (7-4)
Predicted Line: CHI by 5.5
Actual Line: CHI by 7
Obviously a Chiefs win would be tremendous for the Lions, but having seen Tyler Palko play the last two weeks, I have absolute certainty that that will not happen. Granted, Caleb Hanie isn't much better, but the Bears have a couple guys the Chiefs don't have, namely Julius Peppers and Matt Forte. So as much as I don't like it, the Bears are going to win. But can I confidently pick Hanie to cover a 7 point spread? And then there's the possibility that Kyle Orton replaces Palko midway through the game (or starts?), and as bad as he was earlier this year, he's gotta be better than Palko. I hate these games where both quarterbacks are awful. I always get these wrong. But I'm pretty sure Matt Forte will see 30 carries and 150 yards and win this game single-handedly. So let's go Bears, 26-15.
Raiders (7-4) @ Dolphins (3-8)
Predicted Line: OAK by 1.5
Actual Line: MIA by 3
This is probably the 4th week in a row that I've guessed the line of the Miami line about 4 points too low. I guess I need to finally admit that Vegas loves the Dolphins. But I still look at them as the 0-7 losers with the terrible head coach. And while Matt Moore has an average QB rating of 100.5 over the past six games, I can't ignore the 55.6 QB rating he had last year on an equally-untalented Panthers team. Plus I'm pretty sold on the Raiders as a team that can win in the trenches against anybody and Palmer isn't quite as horrible as I thought he would be. Oakland takes this game rather easily, 24-20.
Bengals (7-4) @ Steelers (8-3)
Predicted Line: PIT by 6
Actual Line: PIT by 6.5
Both teams are missing their best defensive player (Leon Hall, Polamalu) and both defenses are stout against the run. So I expect lots of downfield passing and gaudy numbers for both QBs. AJ Green should have another Calvin-ish game: only a few catches, but they'll be spectacular, and one of them will be a huge TD. The Steelers will win because they have better veterans, better coaching, a better QB, and a fired up homecrowd ... but I'll say it's less than 7 mainly because Polamalu's out. Cincy covers with a late backdoor TD, 34-30.
Jets (6-5) @ Redskins (4-7)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 4.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 3
Rex Ryan against Rex Grossman. Oh the intrigue. Let's say Jets 23-21.
....
Just wrote picks for all the fricking games and lost all the freaking work when I tried to post it. I hate this stupid site.
Falcons @ Texans
Line - ATL by 3
Wrote a big long thing about how good the Texans D is even without Mario Williams. Basically went on to say Brooks Reed was the steal of the 2011 draft and Connor Barwin needs to become someone that people know about and Jonathon Joseph is the most underrated CB in the league and Houston has the best pair of inside MLBs of any 3-4 team, and blah blah blah I really hate this stupid website and Houston wins by 10.
Panthers @ Bucs
Line -TB by 3.5
Both defenses suck, both offenses about equal, I like Panthers to cover, Bucs win by 3.
Broncos @ Vikings
Line: MIN by 1.5
AP is out, Denver D is great right now, Minny gives up the 4th most sacks in the NFL, and Von Miller is not only the D-ROY but maybe a top 5 candidate for D-MVP. Denver's defense deserves more credit than Tebow for the 4 game winning streak; they keep it close, and then Tebow pulls off the miracle. Broncos again, 20-19.
Colts @ Pats
Line - NE by 20
I did all kinds of research on the biggest lines in NFL history and wrote some really great stuff but I'm so dang ticked right now I'm not doing all that again. To recap:
only 9 times since 1980 has a spread been 20 points or more, and 4 of those times were the 2007 Pats; biggest line ever was 23.5 points, 07 Pats against Eagles, and the Pats won by just 3; favories of 20+ points are 9-0 SU and 2-7 ATS; teams are 104-6 SU when favored by 15+.
But I'm going Colts to cover because how bad New England's D is. Pats 41-24.
Ravens @ Browns
Line - BAL by 6.5
Ravens are pumped after winning Harbaugh Bowl and now have 3 extra days to get ready for Colt McCoy. I think they've moved past their play-down-to-the-level-of-competition stage and will crush Cleveland here, 38-3.
Rams @ Niners
Line - SF by 13
Don't think the Rams get 100 yards of offense. Niners 23-0.
Cowboys @ Cardinals
Line - DAL by 4
Best thing about DeMarco Murray is that he slowed down the Tony Romo Hype Machine by turning them into a running team. He should have another great game here. Kolb is back for Arizona, and Beanie Wells is coming off a 200+ yard rushing game. Dallas 27-24, Cards cover.
Packers @ Giants
Line - GB by 7
Giants are playing for their playoff lives, but Green Bay is just too good. Pack 42-20.
Lions (7-4) @ Saints (8-3)
Line: NO by 9
Saints are great at home; Brees is unstoppable right now; Suh is suspended; Stafford is playing his worst football of the season; Saints D is underrated, especially against the pass; Detroit's secondary is without Delmas and Houston; Kevin Smith is questionable; just no reason to think this will be close, unless Stafford can hook up with Megatron early and often and keep this close. I doubt it. Saints 38-19.
Chargers @ Jags
Line - SD by 3
who gives a crap I hate this stupid website! SD by 4
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Through Week 12
Last night's Saints blowout brings me to 89-80-7 ATS on the season, and 116-60 straight-up. By comparison, the most popular sports writer in the world (Bill Simmons) is 88-81-7 and the host of uber-popular Walterfootball.com is 79-90-7. So I'm just saying. I am pretty sweet.
Also if you just look at straight-up picks, I am currently doing better than Golic, Hoge, Mortenson, Jaworski and Schefter ... basically all 5 of the NFL 'experts' from ESPN. The funny thing is, I feel like I'm having a crappy season picking the games.
And with that, I think I just executed my first successful humblebrag.
Now that the NBA Lockout is over, I'm thinking about writing some sort of NBA preview ... but I'm not sure if anyone cares about the NBA... ? Obviously the Pistons are a worthless burning pile of trash, but the rest of the league is riveting. Dwight Howard could literally end up on the Lakers, Nets, Bulls, Magic, or possibly a few others. And Chris Paul is a complete unknown too. He might go to the Knicks to create a new Big Three. What about Nash? Will the Mavs come out smoking again? Are the Spurs and Celtics done? Can OKC find their way to the Finals this year? What will D-Rose do as an encore? And most importantly, can the entire league unite once again to accomplish the one and only goal that pure NBA fans care about: keeping LeBron titleless?? There's a lot of intrigue, and I didn't even mention Blake Griffin's soon-to-be-remarkable sophomore season, Kevin Love going for 20 rebounds a night, Kyrie Irving making the Cavs relevant, John Wall transforming into Allen Iverson, and of course, Jimmer.
I don't care how thug-ridden the NBA used to be. Those days are gone, and the 2012 NBA season is going to be epic.
Unless you're a Pistons fan.
Also if you just look at straight-up picks, I am currently doing better than Golic, Hoge, Mortenson, Jaworski and Schefter ... basically all 5 of the NFL 'experts' from ESPN. The funny thing is, I feel like I'm having a crappy season picking the games.
And with that, I think I just executed my first successful humblebrag.
Now that the NBA Lockout is over, I'm thinking about writing some sort of NBA preview ... but I'm not sure if anyone cares about the NBA... ? Obviously the Pistons are a worthless burning pile of trash, but the rest of the league is riveting. Dwight Howard could literally end up on the Lakers, Nets, Bulls, Magic, or possibly a few others. And Chris Paul is a complete unknown too. He might go to the Knicks to create a new Big Three. What about Nash? Will the Mavs come out smoking again? Are the Spurs and Celtics done? Can OKC find their way to the Finals this year? What will D-Rose do as an encore? And most importantly, can the entire league unite once again to accomplish the one and only goal that pure NBA fans care about: keeping LeBron titleless?? There's a lot of intrigue, and I didn't even mention Blake Griffin's soon-to-be-remarkable sophomore season, Kevin Love going for 20 rebounds a night, Kyrie Irving making the Cavs relevant, John Wall transforming into Allen Iverson, and of course, Jimmer.
I don't care how thug-ridden the NBA used to be. Those days are gone, and the 2012 NBA season is going to be epic.
Unless you're a Pistons fan.
Friday, November 25, 2011
Week 12 Picks
So far 8-7 ATS and 11-4 SU ... needing the Saints to win by more than 7 and feeling pretty good about it. Also needing Brandon Jacobs to score less than 25 tonight in order to win the A League and keep my slim playoff hopes alive.
Some random news:
>Matt Leinart is out for the year with a broken shoulder. But is this a bad thing for Houston? Rookie T.J. Yates (a 5th rounder from UNC) is probably just as good and comes with no baggage. He's a game-manager with an average arm and as long as he limits the mistakes and lets Arian Foster control the game, Houston will be okay, at least as far as making the playoffs. But do you realize that the quarterbacks in the AFC postseason are going to be Brady, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Sanchez, Carson Palmer and TJ Yates? Can't we just skip the first two rounds and just right to Pittsburgh @ New England?
>Suh is going to be suspended, at least two games. I'm not surprised, but I am extremely annoyed. Suspensions shouldn't be given out based on reputation. 99% of the players in the league would not get suspended for doing exactly what Suh did. Imagine if Wes Welker did that. It would be considered 'fiery' and 'intense.' Then again, Wes Welker would never do something that stuhpid.
>The Bears lost, keeping them tied with Detroit at 7-4. The Bucs and Eagles also lost and are both 4-7, which means they aren't making the playoffs unless they win 5 straight and get some help. Atlanta and Dallas are also 7-4 after wins, and if the Giants somehow beat the Saints then both of those teams will be 7-4 too, which would be six 7-4 teams fighting for four playoff spots. But I think the Saints will win, knocking the Giants to 6-5 and giving Detroit an edge.
But, if the Giants do win, the Lions @ Saints next week becomes even more pivotal. Because a Lions win would make the Saints 7-5 and possibly crush their playoff hopes. Too bad our best defensive player had to get suspended ... but at least we'll get a whole game out of Nick Fairley.
>Indy fell to 0-11 and has a commanding lead in the Luck Draft. St. Louis and Minnesota are the only 2-win teams, and neither is in the market for a QB. But both are definitely in the market for the #2 pick (LT Matt Kalil probably). The rest of the top 10 is going to include some QB-needy teams, such as Miami, Washington, Seattle, Kansas City ... and also some teams that might be ready to jump ship on their current QBs and start over, such as Cleveland, Arizona, Jacksonville, and maybe Philly. There's going to be a lot of intrigue in the 1st round again, and with possible franchise quarterbacks in Barkley, Jones and Griffin, it might be another great Draft.
That also means there will be less action early in the Draft on DEs, LBs, CBs and OTs ... the positions that Detroit needs to address. My hope right now is that with the 20th-ish pick the Lions land OLB Courtney Upshaw from Alabama. Or the other Bama defender CB Dre Kirkpatrick, but he'll probably go in the top 10.
That's all for now. Go Saints.
My bad not getting the picks up before Thanksgiving ... but I have a 10 day old baby so I'm not apologizing too much. I took Green Bay -6, and although I had a glimmer of hope for the Lions I wasn't the least bit surprised that Green Bay covered. It was a predictable loss, but it doesn't change the fact that the Lions (now 7-4) have lost their Wildcard lead and now need to win some tough games (@New Orleans next Sunday night, @Oakland in two weeks, vs. San Diego the week after that) to keep themselves in playoff contention. Week 14 against Minnesota is the most winnable game left, but even that won't be easy. As for Week 17 at Lambeau ... our only hope is that Green Bay rests the starters and lets us win, but they probably won't do that if they're 15-0, which they probably will be. So while winning in the Superdome doesn't seem plausible, Detroit has to look at their primetime game in New Orleans as a must-win.
You know what would suck? If our second best player acted like a complete ass, slammed a guy's head into the turf 3 times, stomped on his arm, got ejected, denied the whole incident after the game, and gave himself a real good chance of getting suspended for the vital contest in New Orleans. It's likely that Suh will get fined (maybe 30K or something) because the incident really doesn't deserve suspension, but given his reputation and previous run-ins with Goddell, I won't be shocked if he gets suspended for 1 game and fined up to 100K.
I've defended Suh every time in the past, but this really was inexcusable. But I blame Schwartz as much as I blame Suh. Suh is just taking on the personality of his head coach. They're both a couple of hothead punks who need to learn some freaking discipline. The Suh play wasn't the only reason we lost, but it sure as heck didn't help.
The other primary problem was Matt Stafford, who played really poorly for the third straight game. Once the game was 27-8 with under 3 minutes left, Stafford could have aired out a few bombs to Megatron, likely throwing a pick but maaaybe scoring and trying the onside kick and going for the improbably comeback, but instead he chose to pad his stats with a meaningless 9 completions for 60 yards and a TD, running the clock down to the final seconds and giving the Lions no chance at winning. It was a page right out of the Harrington book. And because of that final drive, Stafford finished the game with an almost respectable QB rating of 66.5. But prior to that garbage-time drive, Stafford was 23/35 for 216 yards and no TDs (3 picks, plus 2 picks that were dropped, one of which would have been a pick-six), so his QB rating in the actual game where the Packers D was trying was a horrendous 46.8.
Wait ... I thought all Stafford had to do was stay healthy?? You mean he might not actually be great in every game?? Say it ain't so!! Blame it on his finger!! Surely it's got nothing to do with the fact that he's just an undisciplined punk who spends too much time partying and not enough time earning his $72 million dollar contract.
Anyway ... that's enough about the Lions. Let's get to the week 12 picks.
Cardinals (3-7) @ Rams (2-8)
Predicted Line: STL by 3
Actual Line: STL by 2.5
Let's get the NFC West out of the way ... I like the Rams, 27-14.
Bills (5-5) @ Jets (5-5)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 7
Actual Line: NYJ by 9
HUGE game in the AFC Wildcard race. Bad timing for the Bills, who just lost Fred Jackson for the year, and lost center Eric Wood last week, and lost starting CB Terrence McGee the week before, and still don't have NT Kyle Williams back from the foot injury that's kept him out for 6 weeks. They play their third straight road game against the Jets, and NFL teams are 11-24 ATS in third straight road games over the last few seasons. As much as I want the Bills to win, I just can't pick a team that's missing 4 of their best players to injuries. Jets 23-10.
Browns (4-6) @ Bengals (6-4)
Predicted Line: CIN by 6.5
Actual Line: CIN by 7
It's hard to believe the Browns have 4 wins. They've only scored more than 17 points once this season. In their last five games they've scored 14, 12, 12, 10, and 6. But look at who they've beat this year: Tavaris Jackson, Kerry Collins, Blaine Gabbert, and Chad Henne. Dalton is better than any of those guys, and the Bengals D is really becomming solid. But they lost star CB Leon Hall two weeks ago, and AJ Green is still less than 100%. Even if Green plays, Joe Haden can probably shut him down, and Cincy doesn't really have an offensive playmakers outside of Green. Let's go with Browns +7 ... Cincy wins a snoozer, 13-9.
Texans (7-3) @ Jags (3-7)
Predicted Line: HOU by 3
Actual Line: HOU by 5
Huh? Matt Leinart by 5 on the road?? Yeah I know he's got an All Pro receiver, a great running back and a great offensive line ... but can't the Jags put 8 in the box and force Leinart to convert some 3rd downs? That Jacksonville defense is pretty underrated, and I don't think anyone realizes how bad Leinart is going to be. I like the Jags in a massive upset, 17-13.
Panthers (2-8) @ Colts (0-10)
Predicted Line: CAR by 6.5
Actual Line: CAR by 3
Whatever. Indy doesn't deserve to be within 3 of anybody. Cam Newton is going to CRUSH them. Even if the Colts were trying (which they aren't), this game wouldn't be close. Panthers 34-17. Why hasn't Jim Caldwell been fired yet...?
Bucs (4-6) @ Titans (5-5)
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 3.5
Both teams need a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Titans are probably a little bummed that Hasselbeck's injury wasn't more serious; Jake Locker looked like a stud last week in Atlanta. But Hass will play, and either QB should be successful against the struggling Bucs D. Tampa hasn't been able to stopp anyone since Gerald McCoy's injury; even the ghost of Chris Johnson should be able to put up solid yardage. This game is really pretty even. Both teams are just a notch above average. I like Tampa and the points. How about Titans 23-20 in OT.
Vikings (2-8) @ Falcons (6-4)
Predicted Line: ATL by 12.5 (AP out)
Actual Line: ATL by 9
Like Carolina, Minnesota is much better than their 2-8 record indicates. If either of those teams had Cleveland's schedule, they'd be a tidy 6-4 and looking at a Wildcard. But alas, Christian Ponder's going to take another loss here, and that stinks for Detroit because it means the Vikings are nearing pretty close to a top 5 pick next April. The big prize after Andrew Luck is stud left tackle Matt Kalil from USC. Minnesota could certainly use him.
With no Peterson in this game, it'll be Toby Gerhart, a white dude from Stanford, and that isn't going to work. Unfortunately for Detroit, Atlanta's going to win big, 34-14.
Bears (7-3) @ Raiders (6-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 4.5
Actual Line: OAK by 4
In a way turn of events, Kyle Orton was cut by the Broncos on Tuesday. Then the madness ensued; Chicago, KC, and several other teams with undesirable quarterback situations placed bids. For whatever reason, KC got him, and Chicago is stuck with Caleb Hanie in the wake of Cutler's broken thumb.
Since nobody knows anything about Hanie, here's the Wikipedia scoop: played college football at Colorado, was undrafted in 2008, barely made the Bears roster as their 3rd string QB, played in a few games last year, had terrible stats, lost all the games he played in ... so yeah, you're probably wondering the same thing as me. Why isn't this line ten points higher?
I'll take the Raiders, 33-17. Matt Forte can only do so much.
Redskins (3-7) @ Seahawks (4-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 4.5
Actual Line: SEA by 3.5
I hate these kinds of games. Rex Grossman against Tavaris Jackson. Who gives a freaking crap. Seahawks at home by 6.
Patriots (7-3) @ Eagles (4-6)
Predicted Line: NE by 5.5
Actual Line: NE by 3.5
Vick is officially ruled out, so it'll be Vince Young against Tom Brady. That was enough to make me lean towards the Patriots, but when Philly's best player (Asomugha) was carted off the field in practice and ruled out for at least this week, it became a no-brainer. No chance that Philly can slow down the Pats offense. Pats by 13.
Broncos (5-5) @ Chargers (4-6)
Predicted Line: SD by 3.5
Actual Line: SD by 6
A lot of athletes are described as 'polarizing.' LeBron, A-Rod, Kobe ... but usually, 'polarizing' is just a euphamism for a guy everybody hates. How many players are actually liked by half the fans and disliked by half the fans? Isn't Tebow the only truly polarizing player in sports? You can't not have an opinion on Tebow.
My opinion has shifted all over the spectrum, but I'm getting pretty close to deciding what I think. He's got Roethlisberger's body, Mother Teresa's heart, and the arm of a slightly-above average high school quarterback. He can miss a wide open receiver from 5 yards away, or he can hit an open Eric Decker 45 yards downfield. It makes no sense, it's utterly unpredictable, but he's got one thing that Phillip Rivers and all other pro quarterbacks do not have: the heart of Mother freaking Teresa.
So I don't know, maybe the Chargers will blow the crap out of the Broncos and make the AFC West a good race. They probably should. But I'm sure as heck taking the points, especially given the way Von Miller is playing right now, and the fact that Champ Bailey might be able to shut down Vincent Jackson, and the fact that Antonio Gates is just one big stupid injured foot pretending to be a football player. Chargers straight-up, I guess, reluctantly, but by less than 6.
Steelers (7-3) @ Chiefs (4-6)
Predicted Line: PIT by 8
Actual Line: PIT by 10.5
Steelers 34-10...
Giants (6-4) @ Saints (7-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 7.5
Actual Line: NO by 7
and Saints 31-17.
Go Lions.
Some random news:
>Matt Leinart is out for the year with a broken shoulder. But is this a bad thing for Houston? Rookie T.J. Yates (a 5th rounder from UNC) is probably just as good and comes with no baggage. He's a game-manager with an average arm and as long as he limits the mistakes and lets Arian Foster control the game, Houston will be okay, at least as far as making the playoffs. But do you realize that the quarterbacks in the AFC postseason are going to be Brady, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Sanchez, Carson Palmer and TJ Yates? Can't we just skip the first two rounds and just right to Pittsburgh @ New England?
>Suh is going to be suspended, at least two games. I'm not surprised, but I am extremely annoyed. Suspensions shouldn't be given out based on reputation. 99% of the players in the league would not get suspended for doing exactly what Suh did. Imagine if Wes Welker did that. It would be considered 'fiery' and 'intense.' Then again, Wes Welker would never do something that stuhpid.
>The Bears lost, keeping them tied with Detroit at 7-4. The Bucs and Eagles also lost and are both 4-7, which means they aren't making the playoffs unless they win 5 straight and get some help. Atlanta and Dallas are also 7-4 after wins, and if the Giants somehow beat the Saints then both of those teams will be 7-4 too, which would be six 7-4 teams fighting for four playoff spots. But I think the Saints will win, knocking the Giants to 6-5 and giving Detroit an edge.
But, if the Giants do win, the Lions @ Saints next week becomes even more pivotal. Because a Lions win would make the Saints 7-5 and possibly crush their playoff hopes. Too bad our best defensive player had to get suspended ... but at least we'll get a whole game out of Nick Fairley.
>Indy fell to 0-11 and has a commanding lead in the Luck Draft. St. Louis and Minnesota are the only 2-win teams, and neither is in the market for a QB. But both are definitely in the market for the #2 pick (LT Matt Kalil probably). The rest of the top 10 is going to include some QB-needy teams, such as Miami, Washington, Seattle, Kansas City ... and also some teams that might be ready to jump ship on their current QBs and start over, such as Cleveland, Arizona, Jacksonville, and maybe Philly. There's going to be a lot of intrigue in the 1st round again, and with possible franchise quarterbacks in Barkley, Jones and Griffin, it might be another great Draft.
That also means there will be less action early in the Draft on DEs, LBs, CBs and OTs ... the positions that Detroit needs to address. My hope right now is that with the 20th-ish pick the Lions land OLB Courtney Upshaw from Alabama. Or the other Bama defender CB Dre Kirkpatrick, but he'll probably go in the top 10.
That's all for now. Go Saints.
My bad not getting the picks up before Thanksgiving ... but I have a 10 day old baby so I'm not apologizing too much. I took Green Bay -6, and although I had a glimmer of hope for the Lions I wasn't the least bit surprised that Green Bay covered. It was a predictable loss, but it doesn't change the fact that the Lions (now 7-4) have lost their Wildcard lead and now need to win some tough games (@New Orleans next Sunday night, @Oakland in two weeks, vs. San Diego the week after that) to keep themselves in playoff contention. Week 14 against Minnesota is the most winnable game left, but even that won't be easy. As for Week 17 at Lambeau ... our only hope is that Green Bay rests the starters and lets us win, but they probably won't do that if they're 15-0, which they probably will be. So while winning in the Superdome doesn't seem plausible, Detroit has to look at their primetime game in New Orleans as a must-win.
You know what would suck? If our second best player acted like a complete ass, slammed a guy's head into the turf 3 times, stomped on his arm, got ejected, denied the whole incident after the game, and gave himself a real good chance of getting suspended for the vital contest in New Orleans. It's likely that Suh will get fined (maybe 30K or something) because the incident really doesn't deserve suspension, but given his reputation and previous run-ins with Goddell, I won't be shocked if he gets suspended for 1 game and fined up to 100K.
I've defended Suh every time in the past, but this really was inexcusable. But I blame Schwartz as much as I blame Suh. Suh is just taking on the personality of his head coach. They're both a couple of hothead punks who need to learn some freaking discipline. The Suh play wasn't the only reason we lost, but it sure as heck didn't help.
The other primary problem was Matt Stafford, who played really poorly for the third straight game. Once the game was 27-8 with under 3 minutes left, Stafford could have aired out a few bombs to Megatron, likely throwing a pick but maaaybe scoring and trying the onside kick and going for the improbably comeback, but instead he chose to pad his stats with a meaningless 9 completions for 60 yards and a TD, running the clock down to the final seconds and giving the Lions no chance at winning. It was a page right out of the Harrington book. And because of that final drive, Stafford finished the game with an almost respectable QB rating of 66.5. But prior to that garbage-time drive, Stafford was 23/35 for 216 yards and no TDs (3 picks, plus 2 picks that were dropped, one of which would have been a pick-six), so his QB rating in the actual game where the Packers D was trying was a horrendous 46.8.
Wait ... I thought all Stafford had to do was stay healthy?? You mean he might not actually be great in every game?? Say it ain't so!! Blame it on his finger!! Surely it's got nothing to do with the fact that he's just an undisciplined punk who spends too much time partying and not enough time earning his $72 million dollar contract.
Anyway ... that's enough about the Lions. Let's get to the week 12 picks.
Cardinals (3-7) @ Rams (2-8)
Predicted Line: STL by 3
Actual Line: STL by 2.5
Let's get the NFC West out of the way ... I like the Rams, 27-14.
Bills (5-5) @ Jets (5-5)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 7
Actual Line: NYJ by 9
HUGE game in the AFC Wildcard race. Bad timing for the Bills, who just lost Fred Jackson for the year, and lost center Eric Wood last week, and lost starting CB Terrence McGee the week before, and still don't have NT Kyle Williams back from the foot injury that's kept him out for 6 weeks. They play their third straight road game against the Jets, and NFL teams are 11-24 ATS in third straight road games over the last few seasons. As much as I want the Bills to win, I just can't pick a team that's missing 4 of their best players to injuries. Jets 23-10.
Browns (4-6) @ Bengals (6-4)
Predicted Line: CIN by 6.5
Actual Line: CIN by 7
It's hard to believe the Browns have 4 wins. They've only scored more than 17 points once this season. In their last five games they've scored 14, 12, 12, 10, and 6. But look at who they've beat this year: Tavaris Jackson, Kerry Collins, Blaine Gabbert, and Chad Henne. Dalton is better than any of those guys, and the Bengals D is really becomming solid. But they lost star CB Leon Hall two weeks ago, and AJ Green is still less than 100%. Even if Green plays, Joe Haden can probably shut him down, and Cincy doesn't really have an offensive playmakers outside of Green. Let's go with Browns +7 ... Cincy wins a snoozer, 13-9.
Texans (7-3) @ Jags (3-7)
Predicted Line: HOU by 3
Actual Line: HOU by 5
Huh? Matt Leinart by 5 on the road?? Yeah I know he's got an All Pro receiver, a great running back and a great offensive line ... but can't the Jags put 8 in the box and force Leinart to convert some 3rd downs? That Jacksonville defense is pretty underrated, and I don't think anyone realizes how bad Leinart is going to be. I like the Jags in a massive upset, 17-13.
Panthers (2-8) @ Colts (0-10)
Predicted Line: CAR by 6.5
Actual Line: CAR by 3
Whatever. Indy doesn't deserve to be within 3 of anybody. Cam Newton is going to CRUSH them. Even if the Colts were trying (which they aren't), this game wouldn't be close. Panthers 34-17. Why hasn't Jim Caldwell been fired yet...?
Bucs (4-6) @ Titans (5-5)
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 3.5
Both teams need a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Titans are probably a little bummed that Hasselbeck's injury wasn't more serious; Jake Locker looked like a stud last week in Atlanta. But Hass will play, and either QB should be successful against the struggling Bucs D. Tampa hasn't been able to stopp anyone since Gerald McCoy's injury; even the ghost of Chris Johnson should be able to put up solid yardage. This game is really pretty even. Both teams are just a notch above average. I like Tampa and the points. How about Titans 23-20 in OT.
Vikings (2-8) @ Falcons (6-4)
Predicted Line: ATL by 12.5 (AP out)
Actual Line: ATL by 9
Like Carolina, Minnesota is much better than their 2-8 record indicates. If either of those teams had Cleveland's schedule, they'd be a tidy 6-4 and looking at a Wildcard. But alas, Christian Ponder's going to take another loss here, and that stinks for Detroit because it means the Vikings are nearing pretty close to a top 5 pick next April. The big prize after Andrew Luck is stud left tackle Matt Kalil from USC. Minnesota could certainly use him.
With no Peterson in this game, it'll be Toby Gerhart, a white dude from Stanford, and that isn't going to work. Unfortunately for Detroit, Atlanta's going to win big, 34-14.
Bears (7-3) @ Raiders (6-4)
Predicted Line: OAK by 4.5
Actual Line: OAK by 4
In a way turn of events, Kyle Orton was cut by the Broncos on Tuesday. Then the madness ensued; Chicago, KC, and several other teams with undesirable quarterback situations placed bids. For whatever reason, KC got him, and Chicago is stuck with Caleb Hanie in the wake of Cutler's broken thumb.
Since nobody knows anything about Hanie, here's the Wikipedia scoop: played college football at Colorado, was undrafted in 2008, barely made the Bears roster as their 3rd string QB, played in a few games last year, had terrible stats, lost all the games he played in ... so yeah, you're probably wondering the same thing as me. Why isn't this line ten points higher?
I'll take the Raiders, 33-17. Matt Forte can only do so much.
Redskins (3-7) @ Seahawks (4-6)
Predicted Line: SEA by 4.5
Actual Line: SEA by 3.5
I hate these kinds of games. Rex Grossman against Tavaris Jackson. Who gives a freaking crap. Seahawks at home by 6.
Patriots (7-3) @ Eagles (4-6)
Predicted Line: NE by 5.5
Actual Line: NE by 3.5
Vick is officially ruled out, so it'll be Vince Young against Tom Brady. That was enough to make me lean towards the Patriots, but when Philly's best player (Asomugha) was carted off the field in practice and ruled out for at least this week, it became a no-brainer. No chance that Philly can slow down the Pats offense. Pats by 13.
Broncos (5-5) @ Chargers (4-6)
Predicted Line: SD by 3.5
Actual Line: SD by 6
A lot of athletes are described as 'polarizing.' LeBron, A-Rod, Kobe ... but usually, 'polarizing' is just a euphamism for a guy everybody hates. How many players are actually liked by half the fans and disliked by half the fans? Isn't Tebow the only truly polarizing player in sports? You can't not have an opinion on Tebow.
My opinion has shifted all over the spectrum, but I'm getting pretty close to deciding what I think. He's got Roethlisberger's body, Mother Teresa's heart, and the arm of a slightly-above average high school quarterback. He can miss a wide open receiver from 5 yards away, or he can hit an open Eric Decker 45 yards downfield. It makes no sense, it's utterly unpredictable, but he's got one thing that Phillip Rivers and all other pro quarterbacks do not have: the heart of Mother freaking Teresa.
So I don't know, maybe the Chargers will blow the crap out of the Broncos and make the AFC West a good race. They probably should. But I'm sure as heck taking the points, especially given the way Von Miller is playing right now, and the fact that Champ Bailey might be able to shut down Vincent Jackson, and the fact that Antonio Gates is just one big stupid injured foot pretending to be a football player. Chargers straight-up, I guess, reluctantly, but by less than 6.
Steelers (7-3) @ Chiefs (4-6)
Predicted Line: PIT by 8
Actual Line: PIT by 10.5
Steelers 34-10...
Giants (6-4) @ Saints (7-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 7.5
Actual Line: NO by 7
and Saints 31-17.
Go Lions.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Week 11 Quick Picks (and week 11 Recap)
A grotesque 3-9-2 this week, bringing me to 80-73-7 on the year. I did somehow go 8-6 straight-up despite my worst week yet of picks, so I'm an excellent 104-56 straight-up.
Here's the post- Week 11 Playoff Update.
First the NFC.
Two teams have cemented their spot in the playoffs, GB and SF, and six teams are essentially eliminated: SEA, STL, ARZ, CAR, MIN, and WAS. We know a Wildcard won't come from the NFC West, and we know Jay Cutler is lost for 6 weeks. We don't know if Philly (4-6) or Tampa (4-6) can win a few straight and put themselves in the chase, but they both have schedules that make it a possibility. We assume the Giants will lose 2 straight against GB and NO while the Cowboys win 2 straight against MIA and ARZ, and thus we assume the Cowboys will win their division with at least 11 wins, while the Giants finish no better than 10-6. We assume the Packers will beat the Lions, and the Saints will too, but Detroit should win at least 3 of their other games. We assume that Caleb Hanie will be awful, and the Saints will take the NFC South. And lastly, we're downright terrified that Brett Favre will join the Bears.
So who makes the playoffs? Packers, Niners, Saints, Cowboys, Lions and ...... Eagles? Nah, probably Falcons. Still like the Saints over the Pack in the NFC title game.
The AFC is much less clear, thanks to Schaub's injury and San Diego's implosion. New England has a two-game lead over the not-nearly-as-good-as-they-thought-they-were Jets and it-was-fun-while-it-lasted Bills, but if you watched any of the Pats 34-3 drubbing of the Chiefs Monday night, you know they really aren't all that scary anymore, and Belichick has gone from Evil Genius to Mean Ex-Genius. (Brady's still the best player in the AFC though, so let's not freak out). Fortunately New England swept the Jets, so even with a moderate collapse they'll still limp into the playoffs at 11-5. The Steelers and Ravens are the next two best teams in the AFC, and are both going to finish the year 5-1 with super easy schedules. That means they're both 12-4, and Baltimore has the tiebreaker and gets the bye. So who does Pittsburgh get to pummel in the first round? Matt Leinart's Texans? Sanchez's Jets? Jake Locker and the Titans? Which leads to another question: how hurt is Hasselbeck? Did his elbow gradually get worse while Locker carved up the Falcons? What about the AFC West? Tebow?? Palmer?? Surely we can't count out the 4-6 Chargers who have lost 5 straight?
My preseason AFC Playoffs were NE, NYJ, BAL, PIT, HOU and SD. Might be a little boring, but I'm sticking with it. Leinart is going to be terrible, but all he needs to do is win 2 games of the next 6, and he gets a free win against the Colts week 16. Plus he still has Arian Foster who can carry them to wins against bad teams. The Jets should be able to beat out Buffalo and Cincy for the wildcard, although that'll probably come down to tiebreakers. In the AFC West, I'm still of the belief that San Diego will come out on top, but anything could happen as long as Tebow is involved.
Go Lions.
Here's the post- Week 11 Playoff Update.
First the NFC.
Two teams have cemented their spot in the playoffs, GB and SF, and six teams are essentially eliminated: SEA, STL, ARZ, CAR, MIN, and WAS. We know a Wildcard won't come from the NFC West, and we know Jay Cutler is lost for 6 weeks. We don't know if Philly (4-6) or Tampa (4-6) can win a few straight and put themselves in the chase, but they both have schedules that make it a possibility. We assume the Giants will lose 2 straight against GB and NO while the Cowboys win 2 straight against MIA and ARZ, and thus we assume the Cowboys will win their division with at least 11 wins, while the Giants finish no better than 10-6. We assume the Packers will beat the Lions, and the Saints will too, but Detroit should win at least 3 of their other games. We assume that Caleb Hanie will be awful, and the Saints will take the NFC South. And lastly, we're downright terrified that Brett Favre will join the Bears.
So who makes the playoffs? Packers, Niners, Saints, Cowboys, Lions and ...... Eagles? Nah, probably Falcons. Still like the Saints over the Pack in the NFC title game.
The AFC is much less clear, thanks to Schaub's injury and San Diego's implosion. New England has a two-game lead over the not-nearly-as-good-as-they-thought-they-were Jets and it-was-fun-while-it-lasted Bills, but if you watched any of the Pats 34-3 drubbing of the Chiefs Monday night, you know they really aren't all that scary anymore, and Belichick has gone from Evil Genius to Mean Ex-Genius. (Brady's still the best player in the AFC though, so let's not freak out). Fortunately New England swept the Jets, so even with a moderate collapse they'll still limp into the playoffs at 11-5. The Steelers and Ravens are the next two best teams in the AFC, and are both going to finish the year 5-1 with super easy schedules. That means they're both 12-4, and Baltimore has the tiebreaker and gets the bye. So who does Pittsburgh get to pummel in the first round? Matt Leinart's Texans? Sanchez's Jets? Jake Locker and the Titans? Which leads to another question: how hurt is Hasselbeck? Did his elbow gradually get worse while Locker carved up the Falcons? What about the AFC West? Tebow?? Palmer?? Surely we can't count out the 4-6 Chargers who have lost 5 straight?
My preseason AFC Playoffs were NE, NYJ, BAL, PIT, HOU and SD. Might be a little boring, but I'm sticking with it. Leinart is going to be terrible, but all he needs to do is win 2 games of the next 6, and he gets a free win against the Colts week 16. Plus he still has Arian Foster who can carry them to wins against bad teams. The Jets should be able to beat out Buffalo and Cincy for the wildcard, although that'll probably come down to tiebreakers. In the AFC West, I'm still of the belief that San Diego will come out on top, but anything could happen as long as Tebow is involved.
Lots of insane games from week 11 that I don't really have time to break down. The Lions were awful for 1.5 quarters and amazing for 2.5 quarters in a weird 49-35 win over the Panthers. It was Detroit's third 17-point comeback this year, it was the best game of Kevin Smith's career (?), and Stafford threw 5 TDs to 5 different players, none of whom were Calvin. The defense really struggled all over the place, but Cam Newton (who by the way is going to be a dang good pro) bailed us out with some ugly picks.
Didn't get a chance to put up the week 12 picks for Thursday ... but I did text a reliable source and say I was taking all the favorites: GB -6, DAL -7 and BAL -3.5. So I went 3-0 straight-up and 2-1 ATS (Dallas won by just 1). Rest of week 12 picks to come ...
Thursday, Jets @ Broncos
Line: Jets by 6
What I thought the line probably was right before kickoff: Jets by 3
What I texted Andy right before kickoff: "I'll take the Jets"
What I woulda texted if I knew the line was 6: "Broncos cover."
Oh well. Tebow strikes again. Fortunately I got to watch the 4th quarter and all the Tebow-mania that ensued, because my baby girl is still nocturnal and has no concept of sleeping except during the day. Here's what I learned:
Tebow really, really, really sucks as a quarterback. I had no idea he was that bad. He literally missed open receivers on every single possession that I watched. Some of his passes were off-target by a good 5 yards. He looked about as sloppy and untalented as if they had pulled a random fan out of the stands and put him under center. And yet, he's 4-1 as a starter. I have no idea what to say.
Chalk this one up to a terrible pick-six by Sanchez, who played every bit as bad as Tebow, and sloppy defense by the Jets in the final five minutes. This was seriously one of the ugliest, most poorly played games I've ever watched, but the ending was somehow spectacular. My heart was telling me to pick the Tebows, but my head said Jets. Shoulda gone with my heart.
Watching John Fox on the sideline and Elway in the pressbox, it's clear that Broncos' management are not rooting for Tebow to succeed. Their applause after his 20-yard TD to win the game was a mixture of shock, forced joy and complete disappointment. Elway's face said "I'm stuck with this idiot for another year. Dammit. Hmm ... maybe I can trade him for Luck if I throw in our 1st round pick ... Nah, probably not. Dammit."
But the fans love him, his teammates love him, and I love him too, if for no other reason than he just beat the Jets. Next week Denver goes to San Diego for a HUGE game.
Bills (5-4) @ Dolphins (2-7)
Line: MIA by 2
Huh? I get that Matt Moore is hot right now, but really? Buffalo just has a colossal talent-mismatch in this game, even with all their injuries. Bills 31-17.
Bengals (6-3) @ Ravens (6-3)
Line: BAL by 7
Ravens beat all the good teams and lose to all the bad teams. I'm not sure if Cincy is good or bad. They're probably right in the middle. So I dunno ... but I'll take the points since I'm not a believer in Flacco. Baltimore 24-20.
Jags (3-6) @ Browns (3-6)
Line: Pick Em
Both offenses are rotten, but the Jags have a better D. I guess I'll take the Browns at home, since they've got the two best players in this game (Thomas and Haden) and the better QB (D+ vs. a D-). How about Cleveland 13-9.
Raiders (5-4) @ Vikings (2-7)
Line: OAK by 1
I like this homedog pick. I may be one of the only people in the world who realizes that Minnesota has the better QB in this game. They also have the best player (AP), the next best player (Allen), and probably 7 of the next 10. Huge talent mismatch. Their records don't accurately reflect how good these teams are. Plus, McFadden is still out. Granted, Minnesota's best CB (Winfield) is out for the year, so that sucks. And Michael Bush was dang good last week. But I still like the Vikes. 27-20.
Panthers (2-7) @ Lions (6-3)
Line: DET by 7
I hate to say it, but this line is a few points too high. These teams are actually pretty close talent-wise. Carolina has a great O-line and a QB who is actually pretty even with Stafford. Detroit has zero running game and not much of a secondary. We've seen Cam Newton cover spreads against Green Bay and New Orleans, so this only makes sense. CAR +7, but Detroit straight-up. Too much Detroit offense. Let's say 38-33, Lions.
We freaking NEED to win this game. Otherwise we are 6-5 after Thanksgiving.
Bucs (4-5) @ Packers (9-0)
Line: GB by 97
Actually GB by 14. Taking the Pack and not thinking twice. 75-17.
Let's just hope that somehow the Bucs injure Rodgers ...
Cowboys (5-4) @ Redskins (3-6)
Line: DAL by 7.5
Sorry, that's too many points for a road favorite. You're telling me that Dallas would be favored by 13.5 at home? Then again, Washington has lost 5 straight and they've all been by at least a touchdown. Hmm ... and Washinton's #1 receiver right now is Anthony Armstrong. Yeah, what the heck, let's go Cowboys. 28-13.
Cardinals (3-6) @ 49ers (8-1)
Line: SF by 9.5
That's a lot of points for Alex Smith to cover, but I daresay San Fran has the best defense in the NFL right now (!) with the way Willis and Bowman are playing. Maybe Fitzgerald helps keep it close with a garbage TD, but I don't know, San Fran looks pretty dang good. Let's go 30-13.
Seahawks (3-6) @ Rams (2-7)
Line: STL by 2
Ugh. Rams win 8-4. No offensive scoring, just six safeties in this game.
Titans (5-4) @ Falcons (5-4)
Line: ATL by 6
Hoping for a Tennessee win to keep Detroit in good shape for the Wildcard. But I don't see that happening. I do think it's closer than 6 though. Falcons 27-23.
Note: Even if they fall to 5-5, Tennessee is still in the hunt for the AFC South. Everything changed with Schaub's injury. Houston, currently at 7-3, turns to Matt Leinart at QB and instantly moves behind Oakland and Chicago and KC and Arizona and Miami and Washington and everyone else, and officially has the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. That's a pretty terrible dropoff. They'll be lucky to win another game all season. Fortunately they've got a bye this week, so Leinart gets an extra week to prepare, which won't be nearly enough. Be prepared: we could realistically see Tennessee and Denver winning their divisions at 8-8 each. And that would make for a three-team postseason in the AFC with Pittsburgh, Baltimore and New England. Not fair.
Chargers (4-5) @ Chicago (6-3)
Line: CHI by 3.5
Going with my heart instead of my head. Taking the Chargers, 31-21.
Eagles (3-6) @ Giants (6-3)
Line: NYG by 4.5
Vick is questionable. Whatever. I think the Eagles players have given up. Let's say Giants by 6.
Chiefs (4-5) @ Pats (6-3)
Line: NE by 15
Would've picked New England if the line were NE by 21 and Cassel wasn't out for the season. But Tyler Palko making his first NFL start in Foxboro against a very pissed-off Patriots team? Yes please. NE 41-3 on Monday night.
Last week: 9-7 ATS (9-7 straight up)
Season: 77-64-5 (96-50 straight up)
Go Lions.
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Week 10 Picks
Raiders (4-4) @ Chargers (4-4)
Thursday night
Predicted Line: SD by 6.5
Actual Line: SD by 7
The Chargers actually played pretty well against Green Bay. They put up 38 points and 460 yards against a really good defense. The Raiders have done nothing but self-destruct since Al Davis died. The Palmer trade, the 28-0 home loss to crappy KC, and then getting trashed by Tebow. Now McFadden's injury keeps him out again, meaning it's Carson throwing on 3rd downs again. I sense a really, really big blowout coming. Let's go with SD 45-3. Let the Terrelle Pryor Discussion begin!
Saints (6-3) @ Falcons (5-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 1.5
Actual Line: Pick Em
Humongous game in the NFC South. Not sure exactly why, but I definitely see the Saints winning. Maybe because Drew Brees and Sean Payton are superior to Matt Ryan and Mike Smith. Maybe because I like New Orleans' defense about 5% more. Or maybe because a Falcons loss helps Detroit. But it should be extremely close. How about 34-31 Saints in OT.
Steelers (6-3) @ Bengals (6-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 3
With Woodley and Farrior out, it is tempting to take the Bengals at home. Mendenhall should struggle against the Cincy defense, which shockingly ranks 1st in opposing YPC. But Ben Roethlisberger thrives on 3rd and longs, and he rarely loses to the inferior Ohio teams. I'm a little worried about some garbage points keeping this game close, but I think I'll side with Pittsburgh, 26-19.
Tebows (3-5) @ Chiefs (4-4)
Predicted Line: KC by 2.5
Actual Line: KC by 3
IF somehow San Diego loses to Oakland on Thursday night, which is a massive improbability, then Tim Tebow could have the Broncos at the top of the AFC West. In a four-way tie. But since I picked San Diego to win by 42 points, let's assume that doesn't happen.
I do like Denver to win again. They are playing better football right now than the Chiefs, McGahee is coming off perhaps the best game of his career, and Tebow has a nice rapport with Decker and Royal right now. By the way, is the word "rapport" ever used in any context other than QBs and WRs? Has anyone ever said that Obama has a nice rapport with Biden, or my taste buds have a good rapport with Thai food? What the heck does it mean other than the QB throws to that particular receiver a lot?
KC might be pissed following the embarassing loss at home to Miami, but they just don't have the talent to respond. For the second straight week, Tebow is playing against an inferior QB. I'll take the Broncos straight-up, 20-13.
Jags (2-6) @ Colts (0-9)
Predicted Line: JAC by 3
Actual Line: JAC by 3
Whatever .... Colts 17-12.
Bills (5-3) @ Cowboys (4-4)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 5.5
Buffalo is still missing stud NT Kyle Williams, and they've really struggled without him. Dallas is without linebacker Sean Lee and WR Miles Austin. Both running backs should go balistic (150 total yards each, at least), and the QB that makes fewer mistakes will get the win. So naturally, I have no idea. But since I'm undecided on the winner, I'll take the points. Why is this line 2 points too high? Buffalo 23-20.
Texans (6-3) @ Bucs (4-4)
Predicted Line: TB by 1.5
Actual Line: HOU by 3
Houston is due for a loss, and Tampa needs a win. Plus Andre is probably still out. AND this line is completely wack. But despite all that, I still like the Texans. Arian Foster is too good, plus Gerald McCoy is out. HOU 31-26.
*EDIT* The Bucs got Albert Haynesworth. Not sure he'll play in this game. Even if he does, not sure it'll matter.
Thursday night
Predicted Line: SD by 6.5
Actual Line: SD by 7
The Chargers actually played pretty well against Green Bay. They put up 38 points and 460 yards against a really good defense. The Raiders have done nothing but self-destruct since Al Davis died. The Palmer trade, the 28-0 home loss to crappy KC, and then getting trashed by Tebow. Now McFadden's injury keeps him out again, meaning it's Carson throwing on 3rd downs again. I sense a really, really big blowout coming. Let's go with SD 45-3. Let the Terrelle Pryor Discussion begin!
Saints (6-3) @ Falcons (5-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 1.5
Actual Line: Pick Em
Humongous game in the NFC South. Not sure exactly why, but I definitely see the Saints winning. Maybe because Drew Brees and Sean Payton are superior to Matt Ryan and Mike Smith. Maybe because I like New Orleans' defense about 5% more. Or maybe because a Falcons loss helps Detroit. But it should be extremely close. How about 34-31 Saints in OT.
Steelers (6-3) @ Bengals (6-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3
Actual Line: PIT by 3
With Woodley and Farrior out, it is tempting to take the Bengals at home. Mendenhall should struggle against the Cincy defense, which shockingly ranks 1st in opposing YPC. But Ben Roethlisberger thrives on 3rd and longs, and he rarely loses to the inferior Ohio teams. I'm a little worried about some garbage points keeping this game close, but I think I'll side with Pittsburgh, 26-19.
Tebows (3-5) @ Chiefs (4-4)
Predicted Line: KC by 2.5
Actual Line: KC by 3
IF somehow San Diego loses to Oakland on Thursday night, which is a massive improbability, then Tim Tebow could have the Broncos at the top of the AFC West. In a four-way tie. But since I picked San Diego to win by 42 points, let's assume that doesn't happen.
I do like Denver to win again. They are playing better football right now than the Chiefs, McGahee is coming off perhaps the best game of his career, and Tebow has a nice rapport with Decker and Royal right now. By the way, is the word "rapport" ever used in any context other than QBs and WRs? Has anyone ever said that Obama has a nice rapport with Biden, or my taste buds have a good rapport with Thai food? What the heck does it mean other than the QB throws to that particular receiver a lot?
KC might be pissed following the embarassing loss at home to Miami, but they just don't have the talent to respond. For the second straight week, Tebow is playing against an inferior QB. I'll take the Broncos straight-up, 20-13.
Jags (2-6) @ Colts (0-9)
Predicted Line: JAC by 3
Actual Line: JAC by 3
Whatever .... Colts 17-12.
Bills (5-3) @ Cowboys (4-4)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 5.5
Buffalo is still missing stud NT Kyle Williams, and they've really struggled without him. Dallas is without linebacker Sean Lee and WR Miles Austin. Both running backs should go balistic (150 total yards each, at least), and the QB that makes fewer mistakes will get the win. So naturally, I have no idea. But since I'm undecided on the winner, I'll take the points. Why is this line 2 points too high? Buffalo 23-20.
Texans (6-3) @ Bucs (4-4)
Predicted Line: TB by 1.5
Actual Line: HOU by 3
Houston is due for a loss, and Tampa needs a win. Plus Andre is probably still out. AND this line is completely wack. But despite all that, I still like the Texans. Arian Foster is too good, plus Gerald McCoy is out. HOU 31-26.
*EDIT* The Bucs got Albert Haynesworth. Not sure he'll play in this game. Even if he does, not sure it'll matter.
Titans (4-4) @ Panthers (2-6)
Predicted Line: CAR by 3
Actual Line: CAR by 3
If Chris Johnson was still Chris Johnson, I'd be taking the Titans against the crappy Panthers D. But I don't know. Probably going Panthers 24-13.
Redskins (3-5) @ Dolphins (1-7)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 4
Probably the two worst coaches and the two worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL right now, so I don't know nor do I care what happens in this game. Washington's entire offense is hurt, and wasn't any good in the first place, but they do have a great pass rush (3rd in sacks). Miami just got their first win (31-3 at KC) and proved that they weren't tanking the first 7 games, they just really were that bad. This should be a game of three-and-outs and field goals, so I'll take the 4 points. Miami 16-13 as time expires.
Rams (1-7) @ Browns (3-5)
Predicted Line: CLE by 3
Actual Line: CLE by 3
Another dismal matchup. Cleveland has no offense and is down to their 3rd string running back. St. Louis just followed up a beatdown of the Saints by losing to the freaking Cardinals. But I've gotta go with my heart - the Rams are the better team. I swear, they aren't as bad as 1-7. I like St. Louis on the road, 14-13.
Cardinals (2-6) @ Eagles (3-5)
Predicted Line: PHI by 13.5
Actual Line: None (Kolb)
Really, is there such a dramatic dropoff from Kevin Kolb to John Skelton that you can't even give a line? Especially when you factor in Beanie's lingering injury and the Eagles' great pass rush and the unfortunate reality that Asomugha>Fitzgerald. The Cards aren't doing anything offensively. When Kolb is officially ruled out, which should happen sometime today, the spread will be in the PHI by 14 or 15 range. And although Vick has been erratic this season, the Cards don't have any defensive players that can contend with McCoy and the receivers. This has all the makings of a 35-0 blowout, followed by the standard "Wait, maybe the Eagles still have a shot at a Wildcard!" discussion. For what it's worth, I'm not counting them out until it's mathematically impossible. I've never looked at a 3-5 team before and thought, Yeah they could realistically win 8 straight. But Philly could.
Ravens (6-2) @ Seahawks (2-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 7.5
Actual Line: BAL by 6.5
What the heck. I'll take the Hawks at home. To cover the points that is. BAL 27-21.
Lions (6-2) @ Bears (5-3)
Predicted Line: CHI by 3
Actual Line: CHI by 3
I am nervous.
Forte > Lions' run defense
Bears D > Lions' running game
Peppers > Backus
Chicago could control this game in the trenches and run all over us. Detroit has been susceptible to great running backs all season. The more Cutler drops back to pass, the better I feel. Fortunately, Chicago's offense is still led by Mike Martz.
For Detroit's offense, the key is going to be the same as it was in Denver. Forget the running game. Pass early, pass often, pass short, pass deep; just don't waste plays with Keiland Williams up the middle on 2nd and 8. That crap has to stop. You've got the best receiver in football and Chicago has nobody who can contain him.
Both teams obviously need this game for playoff positioning, and if it comes down to 'Who wants it more?' I think Detroit has an edge. It's almost definitely going to be decided in the final 2 minutes, so if nothing else, I want the points. But I'm also taking Detroit straight-up, 27-23. Cutler's comeback effort falls just short.
Giants (6-2) @ 49ers (7-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 3
Actual Line: SF by 3.5
Hmm ... the mighty Giants who just took down New England, or the 49ers who are dominating everybody? I hate that stupid half a point. I like San Fran by 3.
Patriots (5-3) @ Jets (5-3)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 1.5
Actual Line: NYJ by 2
Patriots are pissed, Jared Mayo is back, and Mark Sanchez sucks. But ... the Jets have better players at pretty much every position except QB. Hmmm ... I'll go with New England for the sake of common sense. 23-20.
Vikings (2-6) @ Packers (8-0)
Predicted Line: GB by 28
Actual Line: GB by 13
When will Vegas learn? All Aaron Rodgers does is cover spreads, no matter what. He's 29-14 against-the-spread in the last two years, and I'm pretty sure 7-1 this year. I like Ponder, I like AP, heck I like Minnesota to finish strong and end up with 6 or 7 wins. But this won't be close. GB 41-27.
That's all for now ... Go Lions
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Week 9 Picks
A brilliant 10-4 ATS this week. Let's break down the games ...
Hey guys. Sorry it's Saturday night and I'm just now getting to the picks. Kind of a crazy week ... still no baby, but soon!
No Lions game this week, but plenty of routing interest. All of Detroit's playoff competition is in action, including a Philly-Chicago Monday nighter. The Falcons get an auto-win against the Colts, but the rest of the NFC Wildcard contenders have tough games. Tampa plays at New Orleans, the Giants play New England, and the Cowboys ... well, they play Seattle, but no game is easy for the idiotic Cowboys. As for the rest of week 9, I'm hoping for a Ravens romp over the Steelers, which would give them the upper-hand in the AFC North. Baltimore's next five games include 4 gimmies (Indy, Seattle, Cleveland, Cincy). Other games of intrigue include Packers @ Chargers, Tebow @ Raiders, and Jets @ Bills. Without further ado ...
Seahawks (2-5) @ Cowboys (3-4)
Predicted Line: DAL by 10.5
Actual Line: DAL by 11
Tavaris is back in the lineup. Not sure if that's a good thing or not for Seattle. Dallas's defense can't really stop anybody, but the Hawks have no playmakers on offense whatsoever. That probably means Seattle scores somewhere between 13 and 20. For Dallas to cover they're going to need to score 30, and I don't trust their offense as much as I probably should. Let's say Cowboys 23-14.
Final score: 23-13. I was pretty darn close. Dallas continues to stink in the red zone, and Miles Austin is out for at least 2 weeks. But the good news ...
DeMarco Murray racked up 139 yards against the league's 2nd best run defense. In three starts, he has YPCs of 10.1, 9.3, and 6.3. On the season, it's 80 carries for 539 yards - a 6.7 average. Oh, and he holds the all-purpose yardage record at Oklahoma (3,685 rushing, 1,571 receiving), so it's safe to say he'll serve as the 3rd down back in Dallas and catch plenty of passes. In other words, Felix Jones is dead, and can be found next year for 75 cents at the Salvation Army store.
I might be getting ahead of myself, but I really think Murray is very close to surpassing Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and whoever else, to being the heir apparent to Adrian Peterson for "Best Running Back Alive." Not right now, but maybe twelve months from now. He is definitely the real deal. Dallas might just ride him to a playoff spot. I will ask once again ... Why didn't he get drafted until the 3rd round??????
49ers (6-1) @ Redskins (3-4)
Predicted Line: Whatever it is, it should be higher
Actual Line: SF by 4
I don't usually change my opinion of a team in the middle of a season, but with San Fran I don't have a choice. They are for real. They might have the second best defense in the NFL (behind Baltimore) and on offense they have Frank Gore healthy for the first time in five years. And their coach is doing a great job calling plays. They actually terrify me when I think about the NFC playoffs. Washington just keeps getting more miserable. Shanahan needs to go; Niners by 13.
San Fran won by only 8, but they outplayed them by about 28. They settled for 4 field goals and didn't give up a TD until 1:10 left when the game was basically over. John Beck was a checkdown machine, throwing 14 completions to rookie RB Roy Helu. This allowed Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman (who have emerged as the league's best LB tandem) to rack up 21 tackles, which allowed me to win one of my IDP fantasy leagues in which I own both guys. Alex Smith continues his efficient play (17/24, 200 yards, no picks), and Gore rushes for 100 yards for the fifth straight week.
With a 5 game lead over 2-6 Seattle and 2-6 Arizona, San Fran could literally forfeit the next 7 games and still make the playoffs. Heck, maybe they'll play Colin Kaepernick just to see how he does.
Dolphins (0-7) @ Chiefs (4-3)
Predicted Line: KC by 6.5
Actual Line: KC by 4
Here's the thing ... with Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry out, Miami actually has the better team. Being 0-7 has more to do with poor coaching than anything else. Also, they have the worst homefield advantage in football. But on paper, they have a lockdown corner, a great pass rusher, and an elite left tackle. KC doesn't really have any good players except Tamba Hali, who will be neutralized by Jake Long. Long story short ... I am taking the Fins and the upset, 24-10.
One of my more brilliant calls of the year, Miami picked up their first victory in a 31-3 game that wasn't quite as lopsided as the score indicates. KC actually had 9 more minutes of possesion, did better on third down, and didn't commit a single turnover. But they were undone by terrible field possession (began their first five drives on the 22, 6, 17, 14, and 9) and a few sacks on 3rd downs which knocked them out of field goal range. Matt Moore, on the other hand, was fiendishly brilliant, going 17/23 for 244 and 3 scores, with no turnovers and no sacks. I think we may need to consider the possibility that the AFC West is just as bad as the NFC West.
Jets (4-3) @ Bills (5-2)
Predicted Line: BUF by 2.5
Actual Line: BUF by 2.5
Putting aside my aversion for Rex Ryan, I have to admit I see this game as all Jets. Mangold is healthy, and Bills NT Kyle Williams is out. It could be a big week for Shonn Green. But mainly I just foresee a shutdown defensive week for the Bills. Revis will eliminate Stevie Johnson, and I guess I'm just not buying the Fred Jackson hype just yet. This is his chance to prove he is for real. We'll see. I'll take Jets 27-6.
Well, Fred Jackson did okay, but the Jets D proved why Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't really a playoff quarterback, and now the AFC East is a 3-way tie. It was lots of fun when the Bills were 3-0, but as I said then, all they accomplished was a nice start to an 8-8 year. Jets have won 3 straight and host New England next week on Sunday night.
Browns (3-4) @ Texans (5-3)
Predicted Line: HOU by 12.5
Actual Line: HOU by 10.5
Andre Johnson's out, so is Peyton Hillis. I tend to think this line is too high, but I'm not really sure if Cleveland can score any points. Last week Houston was favored by 9.5 and I took the points; they won by 10. Maybe I'm not learning anything ... but I'm taking the points again. Texans 20-13.
I hate the Texans. Since losing Andre and Mario, they've won 3 straight games by margins of 34, 10 and 18. Their defense ranks 5th in the NFL right now, and I don't think that's a fluke. Nice job by Wade Phillips.
Bucs (4-3) @ Saints (5-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 5.5
Actual Line: NO by 8.5
The spread seems a little high doesn't it? These NFC South battles are usually close, Tampa is finally healthy, and the Saints just lost to the Rams. You could say they'll be playing pissed off, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll blow out a pretty good team. I do like the Saints to win - Drew Brees is just too good to be 5-4, but I think it'll be close. How about New Orleans 24-20.
Tampa was going to cover until the Saints kicked a field goal with 1:17 left. Freeman actually played his best game of the season. But now, sitting at 4-4 with games against Houston and Green Bay the next two weeks, and Gerald McCoy out for the season, Tampa's playoff hopes are dwindling.
By the way, I still really like my preseason pick of New Orleans over Green Bay in the NFC Championship game.
Falcons (4-3) @ Indy (0-8)
Predicted Line: ATL by 13.5
Actual Line: ATL 6.5
If my upset special is correct and Miami beats KC outright, Indy's players will be doing backflips in the locker room after the game. They are WAY more interested in the Luck Sweepstakes than winning any games in 2011. I don't think the same can be said for the Dolphins. They remind me of the 08 Lions; awful coach, awful QBs, and a bunch of underachieving players. Tony Sparano actually reminds me a lot of Marinelli.
I don't especially like Atlanta, and it's tough to pick a road team to cover a touchdown. But it's impossible to take Indy right now against anybody. Falcons 34-14.
How much longer is Jim Caldwell going to keep his job? This is getting embarrassing. In other news, it was nice to see Julio Jones score his first TD on a 50 yard bomb. And then his second TD a few minutes later, on an 80 yard bomb. It was also nice to bench him in the B league.
GO Lions.
Hey guys. Sorry it's Saturday night and I'm just now getting to the picks. Kind of a crazy week ... still no baby, but soon!
No Lions game this week, but plenty of routing interest. All of Detroit's playoff competition is in action, including a Philly-Chicago Monday nighter. The Falcons get an auto-win against the Colts, but the rest of the NFC Wildcard contenders have tough games. Tampa plays at New Orleans, the Giants play New England, and the Cowboys ... well, they play Seattle, but no game is easy for the idiotic Cowboys. As for the rest of week 9, I'm hoping for a Ravens romp over the Steelers, which would give them the upper-hand in the AFC North. Baltimore's next five games include 4 gimmies (Indy, Seattle, Cleveland, Cincy). Other games of intrigue include Packers @ Chargers, Tebow @ Raiders, and Jets @ Bills. Without further ado ...
Seahawks (2-5) @ Cowboys (3-4)
Predicted Line: DAL by 10.5
Actual Line: DAL by 11
Tavaris is back in the lineup. Not sure if that's a good thing or not for Seattle. Dallas's defense can't really stop anybody, but the Hawks have no playmakers on offense whatsoever. That probably means Seattle scores somewhere between 13 and 20. For Dallas to cover they're going to need to score 30, and I don't trust their offense as much as I probably should. Let's say Cowboys 23-14.
Final score: 23-13. I was pretty darn close. Dallas continues to stink in the red zone, and Miles Austin is out for at least 2 weeks. But the good news ...
DeMarco Murray racked up 139 yards against the league's 2nd best run defense. In three starts, he has YPCs of 10.1, 9.3, and 6.3. On the season, it's 80 carries for 539 yards - a 6.7 average. Oh, and he holds the all-purpose yardage record at Oklahoma (3,685 rushing, 1,571 receiving), so it's safe to say he'll serve as the 3rd down back in Dallas and catch plenty of passes. In other words, Felix Jones is dead, and can be found next year for 75 cents at the Salvation Army store.
I might be getting ahead of myself, but I really think Murray is very close to surpassing Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and whoever else, to being the heir apparent to Adrian Peterson for "Best Running Back Alive." Not right now, but maybe twelve months from now. He is definitely the real deal. Dallas might just ride him to a playoff spot. I will ask once again ... Why didn't he get drafted until the 3rd round??????
49ers (6-1) @ Redskins (3-4)
Predicted Line: Whatever it is, it should be higher
Actual Line: SF by 4
I don't usually change my opinion of a team in the middle of a season, but with San Fran I don't have a choice. They are for real. They might have the second best defense in the NFL (behind Baltimore) and on offense they have Frank Gore healthy for the first time in five years. And their coach is doing a great job calling plays. They actually terrify me when I think about the NFC playoffs. Washington just keeps getting more miserable. Shanahan needs to go; Niners by 13.
San Fran won by only 8, but they outplayed them by about 28. They settled for 4 field goals and didn't give up a TD until 1:10 left when the game was basically over. John Beck was a checkdown machine, throwing 14 completions to rookie RB Roy Helu. This allowed Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman (who have emerged as the league's best LB tandem) to rack up 21 tackles, which allowed me to win one of my IDP fantasy leagues in which I own both guys. Alex Smith continues his efficient play (17/24, 200 yards, no picks), and Gore rushes for 100 yards for the fifth straight week.
With a 5 game lead over 2-6 Seattle and 2-6 Arizona, San Fran could literally forfeit the next 7 games and still make the playoffs. Heck, maybe they'll play Colin Kaepernick just to see how he does.
Dolphins (0-7) @ Chiefs (4-3)
Predicted Line: KC by 6.5
Actual Line: KC by 4
Here's the thing ... with Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry out, Miami actually has the better team. Being 0-7 has more to do with poor coaching than anything else. Also, they have the worst homefield advantage in football. But on paper, they have a lockdown corner, a great pass rusher, and an elite left tackle. KC doesn't really have any good players except Tamba Hali, who will be neutralized by Jake Long. Long story short ... I am taking the Fins and the upset, 24-10.
One of my more brilliant calls of the year, Miami picked up their first victory in a 31-3 game that wasn't quite as lopsided as the score indicates. KC actually had 9 more minutes of possesion, did better on third down, and didn't commit a single turnover. But they were undone by terrible field possession (began their first five drives on the 22, 6, 17, 14, and 9) and a few sacks on 3rd downs which knocked them out of field goal range. Matt Moore, on the other hand, was fiendishly brilliant, going 17/23 for 244 and 3 scores, with no turnovers and no sacks. I think we may need to consider the possibility that the AFC West is just as bad as the NFC West.
Jets (4-3) @ Bills (5-2)
Predicted Line: BUF by 2.5
Actual Line: BUF by 2.5
Putting aside my aversion for Rex Ryan, I have to admit I see this game as all Jets. Mangold is healthy, and Bills NT Kyle Williams is out. It could be a big week for Shonn Green. But mainly I just foresee a shutdown defensive week for the Bills. Revis will eliminate Stevie Johnson, and I guess I'm just not buying the Fred Jackson hype just yet. This is his chance to prove he is for real. We'll see. I'll take Jets 27-6.
Well, Fred Jackson did okay, but the Jets D proved why Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't really a playoff quarterback, and now the AFC East is a 3-way tie. It was lots of fun when the Bills were 3-0, but as I said then, all they accomplished was a nice start to an 8-8 year. Jets have won 3 straight and host New England next week on Sunday night.
Browns (3-4) @ Texans (5-3)
Predicted Line: HOU by 12.5
Actual Line: HOU by 10.5
Andre Johnson's out, so is Peyton Hillis. I tend to think this line is too high, but I'm not really sure if Cleveland can score any points. Last week Houston was favored by 9.5 and I took the points; they won by 10. Maybe I'm not learning anything ... but I'm taking the points again. Texans 20-13.
I hate the Texans. Since losing Andre and Mario, they've won 3 straight games by margins of 34, 10 and 18. Their defense ranks 5th in the NFL right now, and I don't think that's a fluke. Nice job by Wade Phillips.
Bucs (4-3) @ Saints (5-3)
Predicted Line: NO by 5.5
Actual Line: NO by 8.5
The spread seems a little high doesn't it? These NFC South battles are usually close, Tampa is finally healthy, and the Saints just lost to the Rams. You could say they'll be playing pissed off, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll blow out a pretty good team. I do like the Saints to win - Drew Brees is just too good to be 5-4, but I think it'll be close. How about New Orleans 24-20.
Tampa was going to cover until the Saints kicked a field goal with 1:17 left. Freeman actually played his best game of the season. But now, sitting at 4-4 with games against Houston and Green Bay the next two weeks, and Gerald McCoy out for the season, Tampa's playoff hopes are dwindling.
By the way, I still really like my preseason pick of New Orleans over Green Bay in the NFC Championship game.
Falcons (4-3) @ Indy (0-8)
Predicted Line: ATL by 13.5
Actual Line: ATL 6.5
If my upset special is correct and Miami beats KC outright, Indy's players will be doing backflips in the locker room after the game. They are WAY more interested in the Luck Sweepstakes than winning any games in 2011. I don't think the same can be said for the Dolphins. They remind me of the 08 Lions; awful coach, awful QBs, and a bunch of underachieving players. Tony Sparano actually reminds me a lot of Marinelli.
I don't especially like Atlanta, and it's tough to pick a road team to cover a touchdown. But it's impossible to take Indy right now against anybody. Falcons 34-14.
How much longer is Jim Caldwell going to keep his job? This is getting embarrassing. In other news, it was nice to see Julio Jones score his first TD on a 50 yard bomb. And then his second TD a few minutes later, on an 80 yard bomb. It was also nice to bench him in the B league.
The Colts offense attempted 33 passes and gained 103 yards on those, a stunning 3.12 YPA. That might be the worst YPA I've ever seen. Anyone else remember hearing things like "The reason Peyton Manning is so good is because he has such good receivers ..." Or how about when people used to defend Joey Harrington by saying "Put Peyton Manning on this team and we'd still be 2-14." It seems that we are learning a lot from the 2011 Colts.
Broncos (2-5) @ Raiders (4-3)
Predicted Line: OAK by 5.5 (McFadden out)
Actual Line: Oak by 7
I'm giving Tebow another week. I think last week was simply a culmination of a playing against a great and angry defense, tons of personal pressure from the media, and just a few unlucky plays. He was really bad, but I think his stats made him look worse than he really was. I still think he's got a shot to succeed in the NFL someday. And I have no doubt that he's the superior quarterback in this contest. Palmer is done. He and McNabb should go have a picnic at Favre's ranch and talk about how great 2004 was.
If McFadden were playing, Palmer's awfulness wouldn't matter. But Michael Bush doesn't have big-play explosiveness, and if Denver can force lots of 3rd and longs they can use their great pass rushers to hurry Palmer and create some turnovers... Oh crap, I'm head over heels in love with Tebow. What happened to me??? Denver 23-20.
No big deal, just 118 rushing yards, 2 passing TDs, zero turnovers, 24 unanswered points, and a 14-point win on the road against a division rival. Go ahead everybody, keep hating on Tim Tebow. But Carson Palmer is the one who deserves scorn. 28 INTs in his last 20 games, a QB rating of 53.9 so far with the Raiders, and two straight bad loses. How's that 1st round pick looking now Hue Jackson?
Bengals (5-2) @ Titans (4-3)
Predicted Line: TEN by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 3
I don't see the Bengals winning 5 straight. That's all. Titans 24-16.
Dang, Andy Dalton strikes again! Cincy 24-17. The Bengals are now tied atop the AFC North. Three of their next four games are against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, so while it's very likely they'll fall back into mediocrity, it's also conceivable that they could control their own destiny and win the division.
Here's an interesting possibility: if the Bengals do somehow beat Pittsburgh and/or Baltimore and finish in the range of 9-7 or 10-6, would Dalton be considered for Rookie of the Year? His passing numbers are nearly identical to Newton's, and while Cam has 320 rushing yards compared to Dalton's 26, Newton also has a 2-6 record on a team that might actually be more talented than Dalton's Bengals. It's probably not going to happen, especially because the Steelers' and Ravens' defenses will almost certainly pummel Dalton's head into the turf, but shoot, it's at least worth a thought. And the amazing thing is: I think Christian Ponder might be the best rookie QB in the 2011 draft class.
Rams (1-6) @ Cardinals (1-6)
Predicted Line: ARZ by 3
Actual Line: ARZ by 3
I know the Rams should win, but I doubt they will. Who cares. Cardinals 26-20 in OT.
Wow. This was the first time all year I predicted an overtime game, and I not only nailed it, but nailed the Cards by 6 as well. This was Patrick Peterson's 3rd punt return for a TD, and all 3 have been at least 80 yards. The Rams are PATHETIC. 383 yards of offense, 23 first downs, 37 minutes of possession, and NO touchdowns?
Giants (5-2) @ Patriots (5-2)
Predicted Line: NE by 6.5
Actual Line: NE by 9
I feel like this should be a close, high-scoring, Pats 34-31 game, but with Bradshaw and Nicks out I am taking the Pats to cover. I'll say 35-24.
Yuck. All this "ELIte Manning" stuff is making me sick to my stomach. If Eli was really so great, he would have been able to beat Washington and Seattle, and he would have beat Arizona and Miami by more than 4 points apiece. Let's see how he does the next five weeks - @SF, PHI, @NO, GB, @DAL. If you recall, back in August I said the Giants would need to begin the year 6-1 to have a chance at 10-6 and the playoffs. This game was certainly monumental for their chances. But there is still some brutal football to be played.
Patriots lost 2 games in a row for only the 3rd time in 8 years. The '08 Lions, by contrast, lost 2 games in a row 8 times in a row.
Unrelated sidenote: it's time for ESPN to end their radio-relationship with Mike Ditka. I get that he's a legend and a Hall of Famer, but he has nothing to say, and it's insulting to hear his analysis. It's obvious that he doesn't follow the game closely anymore, that he couldn't name more than 5 players on any team except maybe the Bears, and that's fine with me. He can do whatever he wants. But find someone to put on the radio who knows more than I do. Please.
This was Ditka's analysis this morning of the upcoming Bears-Eagles game: "Well I think it's a heck of a football game between two really good football teams. You talk about running the football, heck!, both of these teams can run the football." Thanks Ditka. Maybe next week you can inform us what color the grass is.
Packers (7-0) @ Chargers (4-3)
Predicted Line: GB by 4.5
Actual Line: GB by 5.5
I picked the Chargers to go 14-2, I picked Rivers to win the MVP, and I fully expect them to bounce back and win the AFC West (which might only require 9 wins). But this week they are just overmatched. San Diego could play thier best possible game and still lose. I'd like to take the points, but I can't bet against Rodgers right now. GB 37-27.
After the bye, Detroit plays @Chicago and then hosts Carolina. We absolutely need to win both of those games, because right now we need to consider Thanksgiving an automatic loss. Green Bay is going 16-0.
Ravens (5-2) @ Steelers (6-2)
Predicted Line: PIT by 3.5
Actual Line: PIT by 3
This is always a 3-point game. Take the points. Actually, Baltimore is the better team and has fewer injury issues. I like the Ravens by 3.
Ravens by 3 was one of my many good calls this week. I went 9-4 ATS (11-2 straight-up) with one game remaining.
I'm very close to switching my MNF pick to Bears+8, mainly because I'm not even convinced the Eagles will win outright. If Philly wins, it'll probably be high-scoring, something like 34-24. But Vick hasn't been good enough this season to earn my confidence against Peppers and the Bears D. Plus Matt Forte matches up really well with the soft underbelly of the Eagles defense. Okay, I'm convinced. Bears win 24-23.
Bears (4-3) @ Eagles (3-4)
Predicted Line: PHI by 3.5
Actual Line: PHI by 8
The line seems really high, but I am going with Philly 31-19. *EDIT* See above.
My last-minute switched helped me finish 10-4 this week, and a scorching 12-2 straight-up. I picked 5 underdogs to win outright, and all 5 of them did. Crazy.
Cutler played pretty well for the third straight game, but he wasn't exactly dominant. The Eagles just gave this game away again. Vick was erratic, inaccurate, confused, sloppy ... all the things people accuse Tim Tebow of. It was Vick's worst game of the season statistically, and it came at the worst possible time. Now Philly's 3-5 and has five teams to chase in the Wildcard race. I still think they have a shot (easy win next week against ARZ will help), but it's a long shot.
The Bears, on the other hand, have won 3 straight since the 9-false-start MNF loss at Detroit. The offensive line seems to have figured things out (only 3 sacks allowed in the last 3 games combined, despite facing Jared Allen & Babin/Cole), and Cutler is not making as many mistakes. They trail Detroit by one game and will host the rested Lions next Sunday. Detroit has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game; Chicago only 5 days. That is a gift that Detroit's coaching staff will hopefully take advantage of.
To channel my inner Mike Ditka: "It's a huge football game. Two good football teams playing good football, and let's see what the guys can do on the football field!"
GO Lions.
Week 9: 10-4 ATS (12-2 straight up)
Season: 68-57-5 (87-43 straight up)
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