Thoughts on the NFL Draft, the Lions, and Everything Else Ever (Part Two)

When we left off, the Eagles had just picked Fletcher Cox, and the first 15 picks looked like this, with my grade of the pick in parentheses:

1. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford – Colts (A)
2. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor – Redskins (C)
3. Matt Kalil, LT, USC – Vikings (A)
4. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M – Browns (D)
5. Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU – Bucs (A-)
6. Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis – Rams (B+)
7. David DeCastro, OG, Stanford – Jaguars (B)
8. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama – Dolphins (A)
9. Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College – Panthers (C)
10. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State – Bills (B+)
11. Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina – Chiefs (B)
12. Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama – Seahawks (C+)
13. Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa – Cardinals (B-)
14. Mark Barron, S, Alabama – Cowboys (A-)
15. Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State – Eagles (B)

The Jets are on the clock, and there are seven picks remaining until Detroit. My Best Available Board looks like this, with my brief Youtube scouting report in parentheses:

1. Donta Hightower, MLB, Alabama (A man among boys)
2. Andre Branch, DE, Clemson (Love him in the 3-4 or 4-3)
3. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame (Great talent, great size, but a potential diva)
4. Michael Brockers, DT, LSU (Definitely a pro, probably not a stud)
5. Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama (Not overly fast, but always in the right place)
6. Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford (Sometimes looks like Jimmy Graham, other times Tony Scheffler)
7. David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech (Not a three-down back yet, but a natural downhill runner)
8. Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford (Good but not amazing; maybe the next Backus)
9. Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia (Guards are not sexy, but this guy is NFL material; will be a great pass blocker for years)
10. Devon Still, DT, Penn State (Huge run-stuffer, not fast at all)
11. Janoris Jenkins, CB, Colorado (Too many red flags – injuries, marijuana suspension, undersized)
12. Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State (Gets the job done but doesn’t dominate)
13. Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina (#9 on Kiper’s Board, but looks like a bust to me; gets pushed around a lot)
14. Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State (I’m not that impressed)
15. Brandon Boykin, CB, Georgia (Getting overlooked because this is a deep CB class, but he can cover, return kicks, and tackle. Only downside is his size. Makes a great nickel CB though)
16. Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina (Big for a CB; great tackler; not amazing in coverage and not very fast)

A lot of other prospects were left off the list, including a long list of receivers, notably Baylor’s Kendall Wright and Georgia Tech’s Stephen Hill, both considered possible first rounders. But to me, both guys look like Titus Young; dominant in college, nothing special in the NFL. I also left off a few DEs and DTs because the Lions probably won’t be going in that direction, now that Avril is retained.

So, back to the Jets. Aside from adding Tebow, it hasn’t been a good offseason for them. They finished the year on a three-game losing streak to miss the playoffs, with Santonio Holmes quitting on the team and then third-string QB Greg McElroy saying the locker room was a dysfunctional hell hole, which led to ‘anonymous’ players saying that Sanchez is not a good leader, which led to the teams best players defending Sanchez … and just when the issue was resolved and Sanchez got a contract extension, they brought in Tebow and ensured a hyperactive media circus for the next two years.

Now, the Jets haven’t done anything whatsoever in free agency other than re-sign their nosetackle, add LaRon Landry who may or may not ever be healthy again, and swap Drew Stanton for Tebow. The pass rush is not very good anymore, Sanchez is regressing, Plaxico is gone, Holmes and Cromartie are two of the biggest douche bags in the NFL, and the running game seems to have disappeared. Add in the fact that Buffalo and Miami have built great defenses (albeit lousy offenses), and everything is going wrong for the Jets. This is probably Rex Ryan’s last season if they don’t make the playoffs. Then, we’ll have to see him on the NFL Network for a year while he waits out his next head coaching job, because there’s no way in hell he would ever take a coordinator job again.

So, while I have Donta Hightower atop my list of best players available, I’m thinking the Jets need to either upgrade the pass rush or bring in a receiver. Since Floyd is still available and he’s a big target who could replace Plaxico, I guess he makes sense.

Next up is the Bengals, picking in place of Oakland, who stupidly gave up this pick for Carson Palmer. Cincy went 9-7 last year, including a predictable 6-2 against the NFC West and AFC South, with the two losses coming to the only good teams from those divisions. They went 0-4 against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and 2-0 against Cleveland. In other words, Cincy beat all the bad teams and lost to all the good teams. There’s nothing wrong with that, but I don’t see it happening again. It takes me at least two seasons to fully trust a red-haired quarterback.

They’ve made a few shrewd moves in free agency (CB Jason Allen, OG Travelle Wharton, RB Green-Ellis) and set themselves up pretty nicely to be compete. But the biggest concern is CB Leon Hall, probably their best defensive player. He ruptured his Achilles late last season and could miss all of 2012. Cornerback has to be their biggest are of need in the draft, along with running back and offensive line.

They’ve been rumored as a team that wants to trade up for Trent Richardson, and having the #17 and #21 pick makes that a good possibility. But it makes more sense for Cincy to get two prospects with the two picks: possibly two CBs, or a CB and an offensive lineman.

A guy that I’m falling in love with is Georgia guard Cordy Glenn, who could protect Matthew Stafford for the next decade, and could eventually play tackle and replace Backus. Unfortunately, he makes tons of sense for Cincinnati, and could be selected with either one of their picks. The Bengals are Detroit’s biggest nuisance in this draft; they have the same needs, and pick right in front of us twice. We can only hope that they either trade up for Richardson, or make idiotic picks. Maybe they’ll take Jenkins so we don’t have to. A pothead going to Cincinnati wouldn’t exactly be a new story.

San Diego, at pick #18, has had a rough offseason. Missing the playoffs was embarrassing enough in the putrid AFC West, but then they lost Vincent Jackson and woefully overpaid Robert Meachem to replace him. Then they gave Eddie Royal 3 years and 14 million to basically be a kick returner, all while hoping that Antonio Gates (foot) will somehow be able to play like it’s 2004. Oh, and they lost Mike Tolbert too. The offense is disintegrating, and Norv Turner will be the first coach fired if the Bolts start out slow.

The Charger defense is actually improving; they’ve got a nice cadre of linebackers, and a decent secondary with Weddle, Cason and Jammer. Last year’s first round pick, DE Corey Liuget, only amassed 11 tackles last year, playing out of position in the 3-4. They need to continue to build the defensive line, but they’ll also be in the market for a corner. And despite the bad contracts they just gave to Meachem and Royal, it wouldn’t hurt to bring a new receiver – maybe Wright or Hill, but I doubt it. My hunch is a big body on the D-line, so Brockers makes the most sense.

The Bears are another team with similar interests to Detroit: secondary, offensive line. They’ve beefed up the offense with Michael Bush and Brandon Marshall, and made a huge upgrade by signing Jason Campbell to backup Cutler. The defense still has studs in Briggs and Peppers, but was 28th against the pass last year and allowed more completions than any defenses except New England and Green Bay, who were always playing with big leads. The main weakness for Chicago, other than having Rod Marinelli as a coordinator, is the safety and DT positions. They certainly need help on the O-line, and drafting another receiver is also a possibility. They’ll be hoping Mark Barron falls to them, and he won’t, so they might go for Devon Still, the best DT on the board.

At pick #20 is the Titans, fresh off the heartbreaking news that they didn’t get Peyton Manning. The good news: the AFC South is wide open. Mario Williams is gone, Matt Schaub is recovering from a major injury, and Houston has to play a first-place schedule that includes Baltimore and Manning’s Broncos. So presumably, you might be able to win this division with only 8 or 9 wins, unless Andrew Luck is amazing enough to overcome a talentless Colts team, which he might be.

Tennessee did add Steve Hutchinson (one of the best guards ever) and Kamerion Wimbley (42 sacks in 6 seasons, no slouch) to fill two of their biggest needs, but they still have major question marks, beginning at the most important position. In fact, according to my calculations, they will be the only team in the NFL who uses the preseason to determine their week one starting quarterback: Hasselbeck or Locker.

The always delusional Titans fans think they’ll trade this pick to the Colts for Dwight Freeney, or somehow Luke Kuechly will fall to them. Neither will happen. Despite adding Wimbley, they’ll probably go after another pass rusher. They’ll be super excited if Coples falls to them.

That brings up Cincy again, who will be torn between Martin, Glenn, or RB David Wilson. For the Lions sake, I hope it’s Wilson, although Cincy can probably find a comparable RB in the 2nd or 3rd round. Maybe they’ll go BPA and take Donta Hightower, who really should be off the board by now.

Next up is Cleveland, picking in place of Atlanta who gave up this selection for the right to take Julio Jones. As of a few days ago, the Browns were almost definitely going to take Ryan Tannehill with the 4th pick, but the certainty of that pick seems to be dwindling. Browns fans are adamant that this pick be used on either Claiborne or Blackmon or Richardson, and the team’s front office might eventually listen. I don’t know how Tannehill was ever considered top 5 pick material.

If the 4th pick is Tannehill, they’ve got to use the 22nd pick on a receiver or an offensive lineman; if they pass on Tannehill, they can hope that he falls to them at pick 22, exactly like when they famously passed on Brady Quinn with the 3rd pick in 2007 (instead they took Joe Thomas; I wonder how that worked out?), and then Quinn ended up on the Browns with the 22nd pick. Then, 200 picks later, Tyler Thigpen went to the Vikings, and Thiggy has thrown twice as many TD passes as Quinn in the last 5 years. Go figure.

It’s very possible that Tannehill will be exposed as John Navarre 2.0 in the next several weeks, and he’ll fall from the likely #4 pick to the likely #8 pick to the possible #22 pick. As a Lions fan, I just hope he goes in the top 22, because that’s one less quality prospect taken off of board.

For now, I’ll say Cleveland takes RB David Wilson from Virginia Tech; they have absolutely nothing at the running back spot. So to finish off the top 22, it looks like this:

15. Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State – Eagles (B)
16. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame – Jets (B)
17. Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama – Bengals (C-)
18. Michael Brockers, DT, LSU – Chargers (B+)
19. Devin Still, DT, Penn State – Bears (B)
20. Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina – Titans (B-)
21. Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama – Bengals (A+)
22. David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech – Browns (C+)

And that brings up the Lions. But before we analyze the available options, let’s clear some things up.

Firstly, there’s a 0% chance that the 22 players in my mock draft so far will actually be the 22 players picked ahead of Detroit. Someone from that list WILL be available. Luck, Griffin, Kalil, and Claiborne are the only ones who will absolutely, positively be gone. Of the 22 player I have gone in this mock, realistically, at least 5 of them will be available for Detroit.

Second, lots of teams are looking to trade down this year, especially teams in the 4-7 range. Specifically, Cleveland and Jacksonville have been linked in tons of trade rumors. The difficult part will be finding someone who is willing to trade up. As mentioned, I like the chances of Cincinnati zooming up into the top 8 to grab Richardson. This could potentially lead to Cleveland picking 17, 21, and 22, which would be hilarious. Then they could Belichick all those picks and draft 25 times in the second round in 2017.

Third, the Lions might actually be the most perplexing team in terms of drafting since Jim Schwartz took over. Picks that came out of no where and were complete surprises even to the most prepared and diehard fan include: Pettigrew, Delmas, Best, Fairley, Titus … pretty much everybody that wasn’t picked in the top 3.

Of the dozens and dozens of players I considered the Lions picking last year, Titus Young never even crossed my mind. Neither did Mikel LeShoure. We had actually needs, and couldn’t afford to spend early-round picks on skill positions. And yet, we picked Titus ahead of CB Brandon Harris, who was in discussions for Detroit’s 1st round pick; we also passed on potential stud linemen like OT Ben Ijalana and C Stefen Wisniewski. Then, we traded UP for a running back with Harris still on the board.

I don’t have a problem with Detroit’s love of the BPA approach. I just don’t think they do a very good job figuring out the “best” part of the BPA equation. For instance, trading up to draft a RB would have been brilliant if that RB had been DeMarco Murray, who went 14 picks after LeShoure. Murray is probably going to be the best running back in the NFL this year, so be prepared for that.

Lastly, you have to consider the personalities and egos of each person involved in the decision-making process. Jim Schwartz, Martin Mayhew, Tom Lewand, William Clay Jr., Gunther Cunningham, Scott Linehan, and to some extent, Stafford, Suh, and Calvin. Fans have always found it incredibly easy to speculate the Lions pick simply by identifying needs and matching up prospects.

“Let’s see … we need a CB … so we’ll take Kirkpatrick or Jenkins… Done”

But it’s not that easy with Detroit. Schwartz wants to find Hall of Fame talent, a great teammate, and somebody who meets all of the team’s needs simultaneously. He is pretty damn cocky when it comes to draft. He’ll trade up, but he’ll never trade down. He thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room, which is a tragically false misconception, as he proved when he chased Jim Harbaugh around like a lunatic.

Schwartz doesn’t believe in the slow, methodical, Parcells-ian building process; he thinks he can outsmart the room and find the magic prospect who fixes all our problems at once. That’s why he took Pettigrew instead of something logical like a tackle (Michael Oher), a cornerback (Vontae Davis) or a linebacker (Clay Matthews) in 2009. He claimed that Pettigrew would fix our running game AND give us an elite receiver. Instead, we got a mediocre tight end with lousy hands, hermit crab speed, but pretty good blocking ability. I don’t hate Brandon Pettigrew, but Vontae and Clay are among the best players in the league at their positions; Pettigrew was taken 70 picks ahead of Jared Cook, who is essentially the same player.

For whatever reason, the Lions will continue to ignore the fans, ignore common sense, and take the best available player on their board. So instead of analyzing Detroit’s needs from my perspective, I’m going to look at this 23rd pick BPA style, with my analysis of what the Lions will be looking for.

First, let’s cross off the players who definitely won’t be available.

Luck, Griffin, Kalil, Blackmon and Claiborne are 100% gone.

Richardson, Poe, Ingram, and Kuechly, are 99% gone. If any of these guys falls to #23, Detroit won’t hesitate to take them. Even Richardson.

Reiff, DeCastro, Kirkpatrick and Coples will 90% be gone; even if they’re available, I honestly don’t know if Detroit likes any of these guys. Kirkpatrick falling to 23 is the “dream situation” for most fans, but that’s exactly what we thought about Amukamara last year, and Detroit didn’t even consider him. My gut feeling is that Detroit will not take a corner in the first round, unless we traded up for Claiborne. The difference between Kirkpatrick and Jenkins (1st rounders) and Boykin, Gilmore, and Dennard (2nd rounders) doesn’t seem to be vast. In fact, Detroit might fall in love with Jayron Hosley or Josh Robinson or Trumaine Johnson, all guys projected to go in the 2nd or 3rd round, and if they do, that pretty much eliminates Kirkpatrick and Jenkins from the discussion. As for Reiff, DeCastro and Coples, if they fall to 23, it probably means they have some secret red flag, so Detroit could very possibly pass on them as well.

However, let’s reflect on the 2011 draft for a minute. In early April, Nick Fairley was a certain top 10 pick. Then he refused to meet with Miami (pick 15), because he was so sure he would be gone before then. His actions said “I am a pompous, entitled douche” and he already carried a reputation as both lazy and dirty. So, he fell out of the top 10, and would have kept falling, but Jim Schwartz jumped in and basically said “Talent trumps all those red flags, let’s get him!” So, what I’m saying is, we could see history repeat itself if a guy like Kirkpatrick (pot possession) or Coples (laziness) falls to Detroit.

To clarify – Jim Schwartz will overlook red flags that are off-field issues , but he will not overlook talent concerns. For instance, the knock on Riley Reiff at the Combine was that his arms are too short and he can’t get proper position against massive pass-rushers. That could be the kind of red flag that causes him to drop to 23, and if it does, I expect Detroit to let him keep falling.

There’s three positions in this draft that are very deep, and I expect Detroit to omit all of these players from their draft board. I’m talking about DT, RB, and WR, because those are the positions of the least need for Detroit right now. Detroit definitely adheres to a BPA strategy, but they have to draw the line somewhere, and drafting a DT in the 1st round 3 consecutive years would be Millenism. You can obviously add QB to the list of positions that won’t be considered in the 1st round, though I do think Detroit will draft a QB in the 3rd or 4th round, as insurance for Shaun Hill.

If you’ve been paying super close attention, this leaves a list of 5-6 prospects that could be available and that Detroit will undoubtedly consider. To recap:

Mark Barron, S, Alabama – Chances he’s gone – 80%
Andre Branch, DE, Clemson - Chances he’s gone – 60%
Donta Hightower, LB, Alabama - Chances he’s gone – 60%
Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford - Chances he’s gone – 60%
Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia - Chances he’s gone – 60%
Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama - Chances he’s gone – 70%

If you visit Mlive or Lions.com, you’ll see that the most common names thrown around for the 23rd pick are CB Stephon Gilmore, DE Nick Perry, and OT Mike Adams. While none of those players would infuriate me, I think Detroit can do significantly better. I’m not sure any of those guys are future studs. They’re probably serviceable starters.

But of the above 6 prospects, at least one of them will be available. And even though we need a CB more than a MLB (especially with Tulloch re-signed for 5 years), I’d love to see Donta Hightower. Heck, play him at OLB; he’s an upgrade over Justin Durant. I’d also love to see Glenn, Martin, Upshaw, or Barron. Of the six players I mentioned above, you’ll notice three of them come from Alabama. I was encouraged to hear that Martin Mayhew was in Tuscaloosa from Alabama’s Pro Day, scouting not only Hightower, Barron and Upshaw, but also Kirkpatrick and Richardson.

For the sake of moving the draft along I’m going to mock somebody to the Lions, although I won’t have a good inclination until much closer to April 25. But based on the players who are gone so far, I’ll say Detroit selects either Upshaw, Martin, or Cordy Glenn. Martin makes a billion pounds of sense, but for whatever reason, the Lions are being stubborn on Backus, and lately, I’m okay with that. He held his own pretty well last year against a brutal schedule in which he faced Peppers twice, Jared Allen twice, DeMarcus Ware, and Von Miller. Backus can’t be Stafford’s LT for much longer, but if we give him one more season in order to add a potential stud player, that’s great. Glenn would also be a great addition to the O-line, and would immediately be an upgrade over Stephen Peterman. But I’m going to say Courtney Upshaw falls to Detroit, and Gunther and Schwartz can’t resist the potential of bolstering the defense with a sure tackling OLB who can add some complexity to the blitz packages.

Next up is the Steelers, who, like I said earlier, never miss a pick. They could take Branch to play OLB, but with Harrison and Woodley that wouldn’t be very smart; they could also add TE Coby Fleener or a receiver in case they lose Mike Wallace. But my guess is Cordy Glenn. That offensive line is a huge mess.

Next up is Denver, who has revamped the offense with WR Andre Caldwell and TEs Jacob Tamme and Joel Dressen. They also added a solid CB in Tracy Porter (the guy who picked off Peyton in the Super Bowl to clinch the title for the Saints). Eddie Royal is gone, but Peyton has Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker to work with, along with three new weapons. Everybody expects Denver to add an offensive player, especially if one of the Stanford linemen falls to pick 25, but I think it’ll be a DT. With Still, Brockers and Cox off the board, they’ll go with Jerel Worthy – they need to replace Brodrick Bunkley in the middle of the defense.

Next up, the perennial sleeper team known as the Houston Texans. Coming off their first postseason berth ever, expectations are through the roof. Unfortunately, Houston lost more than just Mario Williams in free agency. They lost RT Eric Winston, a great run blocker; they traded stud MLB DeMecco Ryans to Philly just to save cap space; they lost RG Mike Brisiel to Oakland; they lost Dressen to Denver; they gave $43 million to Arian Foster who has already been injured twice in his short career. They also have to hope that Matt Schaub recovers from foot surgery, Andre Johnson actually stays healthy, and that 2010 1st round pick CB Kareem Jackson pans out, because so far he’s been extremely disappointing, and the only highlight of his career is when he got in trouble for Tweeting a picture of a cockfight in the Dominican Republic. All that to say, I’m not sold on the Texans as a 11 or 12 win team. They might be able to win their division at 10-6, but I wouldn’t pencil them into the Super Bowl just yet.

This pick will probably be a receiver. Both Kendall Wright and Stephen Hill are available, so let’s say Houston takes Hill from Georgia Tech. I think he’s the better prospect.

At #27 is New England (got this pick from New Orleans last year when the Saints moved up to take Mark Ingram). It’s not even worth guessing what Belichick might do. He’ll probably trade this pick to Oakland for Al Davis’s casket. But I’ll just give them Andre Branch because he’s the BPA on my board. And he can work in the 3-4 where they need pass rushers like crazy.

Next is Green Bay, who also needs to upgrade defensively. How about DE Whitney Mercilus from Illinois. Then let’s give Baltimore an interior offensive lineman – best available is center Peter Konz, who can temporarily slide in to LG and replace Grubbs and take over at center when Matt Birk retires. San Fran is next, and it’ll be hard for Harbaugh to resist the Stanford prospects – Fleener and Martin could both be available. There’s actually the two best available on my board right now. But Harbaugh doesn’t want to be a cliché clown, so he’ll pass on the Stanford guys and take OT Mike Adams from Ohio State. They desperately need a right guard, and could put Adams at RT and slide Anthony Davis over to RG.

The last two picks are the Pats and the Giants. New England will presumably add another defensive player. How about Stephon Gilmore. Then the Giants will take the BPA as they always do. Let’s give them Coby Fleener. Eli could use a new target with Manningham gone.

That’s all I got for now. The first round looks like this:

1. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford – Colts (A)
2. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor – Redskins (C)
3. Matt Kalil, LT, USC – Vikings (A)
4. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M – Browns (D)
5. Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU – Bucs (A-)
6. Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis – Rams (B+)
7. David DeCastro, OG, Stanford – Jaguars (B)
8. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama – Dolphins (A)
9. Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College – Panthers (C)
10. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State – Bills (B+)
11. Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina – Chiefs (B)
12. Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama – Seahawks (C+)
13. Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa – Cardinals (B-)
14. Mark Barron, S, Alabama – Cowboys (A-)
15. Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State – Eagles (B)
16. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame – Jets (B)
17. Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama – Bengals (C-)
18. Michael Brockers, DT, LSU – Chargers (B+)
19. Devin Still, DT, Penn State – Bears (B)
20. Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina – Titans (B-)
21. Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama – Bengals (A+)
22. David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech – Browns (C+)
23. Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama – Lions (A-)
24. Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia – Steelers (A-)
25. Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State – Broncos (C)
26. Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech – Texans (B+)
27. Andre Branch, DE, Clemson – Patriots (A-)
28. Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois – Packers (B-)
29. Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin – Ravens (B+)
30. Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State – 49ers (C)
31. Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina – Patriots (B+)
32. Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford – Giants (C+)

Go Lions.

PS. Doing fantasy baseball for the first time ever. Had the draft last night. Got Verlander in the 1st round, Prince Fielder in the 2nd, Fister and Boesch later on, and my sleeper pick, Neil Walker of the Pirates. I'm gonna be unstoppable.

Thoughts on the NFL Draft, the Lions, and Everything Else Ever

From my biased perspective, this is the least interesting NFL Draft in years. Partly because the top 4 picks are pretty much locked in, but mostly because the Lions made the playoffs last year for the first time since 1999 and aren’t drafting until pick #23. So while I’m not super interested, I’m definitely not complaining.

In the past decade, the Lions have earned ten consecutive picks in the first half of the 1st round: 13th, 2nd, 1st, 15th, 2nd, 9th, 10th, 6th, 2nd, and 3rd. That’s an average pick of 6.3 in a ten-year span.

This year, drafting 23rd, the Lions will be in the second-half of the 1st round for the first time since 2000, when we drafted …. 18th overall … drumroll please … Jeff Backus, from the University of Michigan!

Sidenote: Backus has played in every Lions game since, and has officially made more money than any offensive lineman who never made a Pro Bowl. Drafted immediately after Backus were a couple of studs, Casey Hampton and Nate Clemens, but whatever.

As long as we’re on this sidenote, it’s fascinating to look back at the past ten drafts and see how glaringly apparent it is that Matt Millen had no ability whatsoever to recognize talent. None.

First, take a look at the early round picks in the post-Millen era: Stafford, Suh, Delmas, Levy, Best, Spievey … two studs and all serviceable starters. Lewand, Mayhew and Schwartz even found late-round gems like Willie Young (7th) and Sammie Lee Hill (4th). Jury’s still out on Titus, LeShoure and Fairley, but at least one of them should pan out. (My hunch: LeShoure’s a stud, Fairley’s a bum, and Titus is too small to stay healthy. Unfortunately I think the 2011 draft will end up being a disaster for Detroit.)

Side-sidenote: it’s scary how good the Steelers draft. Polamalu, Roethlisberger, Holmes, Timmons, Woodley, Mendenhall and Pouncey were early picks, and every single one of them is a stud. But more impressively, they somehow found William Gay, Jonathan Dwyer and Antonio Brown all in the 6th round!? And starting tackle Willie Colon in the 4th? Superstar Mike Wallace in the 3rd? Willie Parker, John Kuhn and Isaac Redman undrafted? What the heck …

Maybe the Steelers are on to something. Draft your LBs early, your receivers in the middle rounds, and find your running backs after the 7th round is over. Seems like a repeatable blueprint, no?

Anyway, back to the dark days of Millen. With picks in the top 40, Millen willfully choose the following players: Gosder Cherilus, Jordan Dizon, Drew Stanton (!), Ernie Sims, Daniel Bullocks, Mike Williams (the bad one), Shaun Cody, Roy Williams, Kevin Jones, Teddy Lehman, Charles Rogers, Boss Bailey, Joey Harrington, and Kalimba Edwards. Now, for the depressing part. We COULD have chosen the following stud players with those exact same picks (reverse respectively): Andre Gurode, Dwight Freeney, Andre Johnson, Lance Briggs, Jonathan Vilma, Bob Sanders, DeMarcus Ware (not to mention Aaron Rodgers!!), Lofa Tatupu, Haloti Ngata, Greg Jennings, Ray Rice, Jeff Otah, and perhaps worst of all, Lamar Woodley (48 sacks in 5 years) instead of Drew Stanton (now 3rd string behind Tim Tebow* EDIT* – now Andrew Luck’s backup).

Now, I can understand how they missed Woodley. After all, he was so hard to notice as a first-team All American at the University of Michigan!! But drafting Stanton made sense because… I mean, he was undersized, couldn’t throw very well, and injury-prone, but at least he was a local hero. It’s not like anybody else from within the state was available.

Oh speaking of Stanton being injury-prone, I’m trying to remember, who was the guy who injured Stanton in college with that bone-crushing, monstrous strip-sack? Ohhh yeah, it was none other than Lamar Woodley from the University of Michigan!! Man, it is so easy to forget about him … I also forgot about how Woodley is the only player in NFL history with multiple sacks in three straight postseason games. (And he did it in 4 straight games, one of which was the Super Bowl).

But in Stanton’s defense, he was MVP of the Senior Bowl in 2007, when the North beat the South 27-0! Who could ever forget that classic contest. Now I remember why we drafted Drew Stanton.

But as for the rest of these terrible top 40 picks, I have no explanation. I know you can’t get them all right, but how do you epically fail on 14 out of 15 picks? The only pick Matt Millen made that didn’t suck was Calvin Johnson, and my son would have been smart enough to make that pick three years before he was conceived.

Imagine, for a moment, that Detroit had never hired Matt Millen, and the person in his stead had picked only half of the top 40 picks with intelligence. Let’s say we still chose Harrington but were smart enough to dump him early. We could have built a team around Aaron Rodgers and Andre Johnson, Haloti Ngata and DeMarcus Ware, with Ray Rice in the backfield and Briggs, Woodley and Vilma as the linebackers. Wouldn’t that team win 5 straight Super Bowls?

(Well, no, that team would get screwed trying to pay all those guys … but still…)

All this to say … drafting matters. And even though Detroit is picking 23rd this year, instead of our average position of 6th, it still matters. Guys picked between 20 and 25 over the past five years include studs Dwayne Bowe, Jon Beason, Chris Johnson, Clay Matthews, and Brian Bulaga … whereas total duds such as Jason Smith, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry, Andre Smith, Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston, Gaines Adams (RIP), Levi Brown, and of course Jamarcus Russell have gone in the top 6 over the same period of time.

And this isn’t a new phenomenon. It’s extremely historic.

1989 - Andre Rison (pick #22) made 5 Pro Bowls, Tony Mandarich (pick #2) made none.

1995 – Ty Law (pick #23) made 5 Pro Bowls, Ki-Jina Carter (pick #1) made none.

1998 – a couple of Hall of Famers went in the 20s – Randy Moss (#21) and Alan Faneca (#26), while Andre Wadsworth was taken 3rd.

Heck, Dan Marino went 27th overall, after quarterbacks named Blackledge and O’Brien.

Historic data shows us that scouts don’t have a clue what they’re doing. Not even Mel Kiper really knows. Back in 2007, Kiper compared JaMarcus Russell to John Elway and said it was smart to pick him instead of Calvin Johnson. How does this stuff happen?

Yet somehow, there are teams that never miss a pick (Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New Orleans in recent years), and there are teams that ALWAYS miss their pick (Cleveland, KC, the entire NFC West). Detroit has quickly morphed from the latter to the former, and they need to keep that streak alive, despite picking 23rd. I believe that 2011 will prove to be a bad draft for the Lions, and if 2012 is also less than prosperous, it’s going to set back the franchise several years, and potentially cripple the potential of our Stafford-Calvin-Suh nucleus. I know this sounds like an overstatement, but we absolutely, unequivocally cannot afford to waste the 23rd pick on somebody who gets cut in 2 years.

Conversely, teams picking in the top 5 better make sure they do their research and don’t end up with the next Charles Rogers. But chances are, somebody will.

Teams are learning though. Franchises are probably doubling and tripling their budgets when it comes to scouting. Back in 2002, 8 of the top 10 picks ended up being nobody. Last year, all the teams in the top 5 nailed their picks. 4 of the top 5 made the Pro Bowl as rookies, and Von Miller is already one of the best players in the league at his position. A year ago today, Miller was considered a prospect to be drafted in the 20-25 range, but somehow all the scouts figured things out before the draft and he went #2. Ten years ago, he probably would have slipped under the radar, been passed on by stupid teams like Detroit, and gone to, I don’t know, Pittsburgh at pick 31.

(Sidenote again – not to congratulate myself, but three months before the 2011 draft I was rooting for the Lions to take Von Miller, before he skyrocketed up draft boards from 25 to 2. I somehow knew more than the scouts, because as I’ve said all along, the only thing you need to evaluate talent is Youtube.)

So all that to say, here is my comprehensive report of the top prospects in the 2012 Draft, my thoughts on who the Lions should pick, who they will pick, and everything else.

First, let’s quickly run through the top 4 picks.

Indy will take Luck. No-brainer, and 99% bust-proof.

Washington will trade up and take Griffin. Risky , and a 50-50 bust. Also very costly in terms of future #1 picks. But with great risk comes the possibility of huge reward.

Minnesota will take Matt Kalil. This is 99% likely to happen, unless Miami really wants to trade up and leapfrog Cleveland for QB Ryan Tannehill. However, that won’t happen, because Tannehill isn’t half the prospect Griffin is, plus Minnesota wants Kalil bad enough that they would ask for two 1st round picks and Miami won’t be willing to give that up.

So Minnesota takes Kalil (great pick, no-brainer, 95% bust-proof), and then Cleveland takes Ryan Tannehill, who is the Blaine Gabbert of 2012. Not a great college career, but he has NFL size and appears intelligent. This is a terrible pick, but Cleveland, just like Jacksonville last year, is in dire need of a change at QB.

Tannehill is 40% bust, 40% adequate backup, and 10% adequate starter. He only has a 10% chance of being a franchise quarterback, and that’s being generous. Cleveland would be very smart to spend this pick on the best player available (BPA as it’s called), which is Trent Richardson or Morris Claiborne.

Texas A&M was one of the most pass-heavy offenses last year, and as a result Tannehill attempted the 6th most passes in the NCAA. (Way more than Luck, Barkley, or Griffin). However he finished just 16th in TDs, and threw more INTs than pretty much anybody, with a below average completion percentage. He scrambles a lot but isn’t particularly fast, fumbles a lot with notoriously small hands, and struggles with accuracy. Yikes.

His strengths are, well, the same as every QB who is stupidly picked in the first round: he’s tall, has a strong arm, and can throw for lots of yards in garbage time (think John Navarre). A&M was 7-6 last year against a mediocre schedule, and went 1-5 against teams that finished in the top 25. His best games were played against Kansas (who went 2-10) and Southern Methodist University (ranked #3 among U.S. Colleges for ‘Most Conservative Students’).

So you may be thinking, how the heck is this guy considered the #4 pick overall??? Well, I’m not really sure either. The only guess I have is that scouts are putting a lot of faith in Tannehill’s performance against Baylor, when he outdueled Griffin with 6 TDs and 415 yards. But that was just one game. The rest of Tannehill’s career is nothing special.

So that’s your top 4. Two studs, and two iffy quarterbacks. Sounds about right.

The intrigue heats up at pick 5, where Tampa has lots of needs and lots of BPA options. Richardson makes plenty of sense, especially with Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks now on the offense. That would make Josh Freeman’s life pretty easy. Addressing the defense also makes sense. Corners Ronde Barber (retirement) and Aqib Talib (prison) will both likely be gone next season, so LSU stud Morris Claiborne could be the pick. Unlike everyone else in the top 5, Tampa is keeping their choice a secret.

According to bucsnation.com, most of the fans want Claiborne. They are pretty happy with LeGarrette Blount and not astute enough to realize how good Richardson will make them.

The sixth pick belongs to St. Louis (from Washington), and they’ve got to be looking at WR Justin Blackmon now that Brandon Lloyd is gone. But I wouldn’t call it a no-brainer. Jeff Fisher is now running things, and he’s never gone with the obvious. First off, Fisher loves to build around defense, and the Rams have huge needs on that end. If Claiborne’s available, he might be the pick, otherwise CB Dre Kirkpatrick, LB Luke Kuechly, or DE Melvin Ingram are all options. Then there’s a couple of tackles in Jonathan Martin and Riley Reiff, and maybe even a receiver other than Blackmon, which could be Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd.

I don’t have a prediction for this pick other than that it will surprise me. Let’s go out on a limb and say DT Dontari Poe from Memphis. He is flying up draft boards, fills a huge need, and gives Fisher the Haynesworth-esque player he likes to build around.

Jacksonville is sitting at #7. They missed their chance to trade for Tebow, and are stuck with Blaine Gabbert, who just had one of the worst rookie seasons ever, even worse than Stafford’s. They got Chad Henne as a backup. In other words, this is a throwaway season for the team destined to move to Los Angeles.

In the past few years, Jags’ GM Gene Smith has gone for the shock-and-awe approach, taking 3rd round prospects like Tyson Alualu with top 10 picks. That hasn’t worked out too well, believe it or not. Maurice Jones-Drew is the only good player on Jacksonville’s offense, but the defense is actually respectable, with underrated LBs Paul Posluszny and Daryl Smith and a decent pass rusher in Jeremy Mincey.

Blackmon makes sense for Jacksonville, because Gabbert needs a top-tier receiver to have any chance to succeed. But they just immensely overpaid Laurent Robinson to be that receiver. Will they take the Millen approach of ‘Live and Die By Iffy Receivers’?

They also need to protect Gabbert, but just spent a #8 pick on a left tackle in 2009 and won’t give up on Eugene Monroe yet. If it has taken the Lions 11 years to give up on Backus, it should take Jacksonville at least 3 years to give up on their guy.

They could address the secondary, especially if Claiborne falls to them. But this pick probably has to be on offense, simply to give Gabbert a chance. And because of the new owner and the desire to make a splashy, unpredictable move, I think Jacksonville does something totally off the charts and picks either Michael Floyd, Richardson if he’s available, or a guard, which would be David DeCastro from Stanford. Guards rarely go this early, but he’s one of the best guard prospects in many years, and could bolster the running game like crazy.

So, to recap my mock of the first 7 picks,

1. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford - Colts
2. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor – Redskins
3. Matt Kalil, LT, USC – Vikings
4. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M – Browns
5. Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU – Bucs
6. Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis – Rams
7. David DeCastro, OG, Stanford – Jaguars

If you’ve looked at many mock drafts, you’ve probably seen Poe and DeCastro going in the 10-20 range, so you might think I’m nuts. But in recent NFL Draft history, nothing goes as expected. Last year, we thought we had an easy top 10, but Prince Amukamara fell to the 19th pick, Fairley fell to 14, and Jake Locker jumped from the 30s to 8. Everyone thought Ryan Kerrigan would go five picks before J.J. Watt, but the opposite happened.

The reason is, NFL teams keep their draft boards totally secret, with the only exception being Buffalo, who always telegraphs their pick. Coaches will outwardly rave about certain players, even invite them for private workout sessions, just to send smoke signals and try to trick other teams into believing they want prospect X when they’re really hoping to snag prospect Q.

Last year, all Jim Schwartz did was talk about Amukamara and all the great left tackles. He waxed and waned about Carimi and Castonzo and Solder. But when all those players were available, he took a stinkin DT. Maybe not a smart move in hindsight, but a calculated move he knew he wanted to take. Every coach does that, except the really stupid ones. Hopefully, those guys have somebody in the organization who is willing to speak up and say “No, that guy’s a bum.” But perennially terrible teams do not have such a person, and that’s why the Charlotte Bobcats always suck; everyone is afraid to second-guess Michael Jordan so they let him make amazing decisions like drafting Kwame Brown and Adam Morrison. I digress.

Usually, the secretiveness and trickery is because of 2nd and 3rd round prospects. If Detroit really likes a CB who they think they can get in the 3rd round (like Spievey in 2010), they will go on and on and on publicly about CBs Devin McCourty and Kyle Wilson, but then take Jahvid instead, while waiting for Spievey to fall into their laps later. Again, that move hasn’t panned out quite yet, but it was at least calculated.

That’s why the teams that draft well in the 2nd-4th rounds are always the best; they know who they want, they don’t make rash decisions, they stick to their plan and, if they’ve done their research well, it works.

The contrary strategy is called Millenism. That’s where you take a tall receiver with off-field problems in the top 10, then after that you just pick random defensive guys with cool names. For example,

“His name is Boss? How can he not be awesome?”

“I had a Teddy bear once. Let’s take Lehman!”

So… back to the board. At #8 is Miami, a huge wildcard. They have swung and missed at just about everybody this offseason (Manning, Flynn, Jeff Fisher), while trading Brandon Marshall for squat. They won’t get Tebow or Tannehill. Right now it’s Matt Moore or David Garrard, with the best receiver being Davonne Bess.

So what does Miami do? Scrap the season and shoot for the #1 pick next year? Unfortunately, you can’t do that and expect to make any money or keep any fans, especially with a new head coach. They need to at least pretend to try. But if you can’t score any points, you can’t win.

It’s a shame, because Miami has the makings of a great defense. Vontae Davis, Cameron Wake, and Karlos Dansby are three studs, plus they just re-signed stud DT Paul Soliai and added a solid #2 corner in Richard Marshall from Arizona. In reality, Miami might have the best all-around defense in the NFL. Though they ranked just 15th in yards and 6th in points, they were hampered by their mediocre offense and bad turnover margin putting them in bad positions all year long.

Miami also has two exceptional offensive linemen in Jake Long and Mike Pouncey. In truth, if Peyton Manning was up for the challenge that is the AFC East, he should have gone to Miami – a much better team than Denver.

So the question is, does Miami keep bolstering the defense so that whoever their 2013 quarterback is (Barkley perhaps) has a great team around him? Or do they give Matt Moore a real chance by drafting a skill position player? New head coach Joe Philbin (remember the Packers coordinator who’s son died during the playoffs?) is an offensive guru who desperately wants a new quarterback to build around. But assuming Tannehill goes to Cleveland, I can’t imagine Miami reaching to draft the next quarterback on their board, presumably Brandon Weeden from Oklahoma State. It’s possible Miami will trade back and try to get Weeden in the late 1st round. It all depends on who is left available. They don’t need to upgrade the offensive line or secondary very much. If Richardson or Blackmon falls, that’ll probably be the pick. Richardson would make a great complement to weenie Reggie Bush.

After Miami is Carolina, who has needs pretty much everywhere. They just signed Mike Tolbert for 4 years, which was curious with DeAngelo and Stewart already clogging up cap space. The assumption is they’ll trade to trade somebody, but nobody wants DeAngelo’s huge contract, and nobody wants Stewart’s injuries. But heck, with Cam Newton, a great O-line and three running backs, maybe they will run the Wishbone Formation and omit the passing plays from the playbook.

Defensively, Carolina needs lots of help. DT and CB are the biggest needs. If Claiborne and Poe are gone, they may opt for Kirkpatrick or a DT such as Devon Still or Fletcher Cox. There will be plenty of solid offensive lineman available, but Ron Rivera is a defensive guy and didn’t get the chance to rebuild his defense at all last year. Carolina had only one pick in the top 65, and used it on Cam Newton, which turned out to be very much the right choice.

Even though he doesn’t fill the biggest need, I think Carolina takes the defensive BPA on their board, Luke Kuechly.

Speaking of Kuechly, he’s kind of the chic prospect this year. A white dude who looks kind of like Rudy. He’s a chase-and-tackle middle linebacker who relies on technique more than speed. He had an amazing Combine and appeared intelligent with his interviews and Wonderlic. But I’m not sold on him at all. I just watched a 4 minute highlight video where all he did was drag runners out of bounds. It takes him longer to complete a tackle than anybody I’ve ever seen. We’ll see if my 4-minute scouting report ends up being accurate at the NFL level, but it almost always does. Bad pick Carolina.

*Speaking of prospects who don’t impress me on Youtube, my new nickname for RG3 is Robert ‘The Bubble Screen’ Griffin. Seriously, less than half of his passes travel more than 2 yards past the line of scrimmage. Not sure how well that will work in the NFL, but it sure is effective against Rice University.

The next team up at pick #10 is Buffalo, who just gave Mario Williams a record-breaking $100 million and 6 years. The only thing I don’t like about that deal is his injury-history, but I’m not overly concerned. Adding Mario to a defensive line that already had Pro Bowl DT Kyle Williams and stud-in-the-making Marcell Dareus gives Buffalo the best defensive line in the NFL, hands out. Then, a few days later they added DE Mark Anderson to play the other DE spot in Dave Wandstedt’s new 4-3 defense.

If you thought having two Steve Smiths and two Roy Williamses was confusing, we’re about to see a new and improved Williams Wall.

With Nick Barnett at MLB, studs Jarius Byrd and Terrence McGee in the secondary, and an elite defensive line, there’s no reason to think Buffalo can’t win 10 games just with their defense and running game. Keep in mind - their schedule features the two worst divisions in football (NFC West, AFC South), two games against Miami, and bonus games against Cleveland and KC. That’s 10 games in which Buffalo could be favored. Just saying, this is your darkhorse team. You heard it here first.

As I mentioned earlier, Buffalo always telegraphs their pick. They did a better job last year, but there wasn’t too much intrigue with the #3 pick. It was either Dareus or Miller. This year, they haven’t been too vocal yet, but give it time and Chan Gailey will reveal their plans. If I had to make a hunch, I’d say they want to give Ryan Fitzpatrick the best chance of succeeding this year, not next year. I think Buffalo is ready to start winning now, as they proved by drowning Mario Williams in cash. So I think the pick is a receiver, not a left tackle, which would make more sense if they were in rebuilding mode. So I’ll say Justin Blackmon falls to #10. He was considered the #2 pick not very long ago. Good deal for Buffalo, pairing him with Steve Johnson.

At picks #11, #12 and #13 are three wretched teams with dismal quarterback situations: the Chiefs, Seahawks and Cardinals.

KC went into 2011 with high hopes and lost Charles, Berry, Moeaki and practically every other decent player within the first two weeks, then freefell to 7-9 behind Tyler Palko and eventually Kyle Orton, who is now with the Cowboys. For 2012, they have to hope that Matt Cassel doesn’t continue to suck, that Jamaal Charles comes back from the ACL, and that the NFL restructures the divisions so they don’t have to deal with both Rivers and Peyton Manning.

Seattle also went 7-9, but won 5 out of 6 late in the season when Marshawn Lynch became possessed. Tavaris Jackson was predictably erratic while showing flashes of decency, and Charlie Whitehurst didn’t pan out whatsoever; he was actually traded back to San Diego in exchange for a bag of garbanzo beans. Going into 2012, Seattle needs help everywhere, on both sides of the ball. Matt Flynn can succeed on a talented team like LSU or Green Bay, but nobody’s ever seen him play with Golden Tate as his best receiver. Flynn’s 2012 should be very 2011 Kevin Kolb-ish, but without as much physical talent and without Larry Fitzgerald.

Speaking of the Cards, they somehow went 8-8 despite a 1-6 start and 8 games started by Fordham College alum, John Skelton. Despite having arguably the league’s worst offensive line and virtually no pass rush, they somehow pieced together a .500 season thanks to only three factors: a super easy schedule, a stud receiver, and a stud cornerback/kick returner. Their division is still cake, but they now get the two toughest divisions (NFC North, AFC East) plus bonus games against Philly and Atlanta. I could see them improving as a team and yet only winning 6 games this year. They were definitely the worst 8-8 team in history.

As for the draft picks, I’d say Chiefs take Ingram to pair him with Tamba Hali and attempt to establish a dominant pass rush, the Seahawks take Kirkpatrick and try to salvage an maladroit secondary, and Cardinals decide between Martin and Reiff, both of whom are falling down the Big Board after unimpressive showings at the Combine / Pro Days. We might even see the next OT (Mike Adams from Ohio State) move ahead of those guys before April.

Which brings us to the always-intriguing Cowboys, who have finally shored up the edges of the offensive line and definitely don’t need to add any more skill position players. I LOVE DeMarco Murray - the Breakout Player of 2012 - and think he’ll open up the game tremendously for Romo, Austin, Bryant and Witten. That offense, at least on paper, should be one of the league’s best.

But the defense needs plenty of help, especially in the secondary. Last year, Dallas had the opportunity to take Amukamara, but passed on him for OT Tyron Smith. This year, they’ll have a choice between Mark Barron and Jenkins, and I’m 80% sure they’ll take one of them. The other 20% could be David DeCastro if he’s still available, or a 3-4 DE, such as Fletcher Cox or Devin Still.

After Dallas is another disappointing NFC East team, the Eagles.

Remember last offseason, when Philly brought in Asomugha & the All Stars, which prompted Dallas’s D-coordinator to talk about “kicking their asses,” which led to Rex Grossman guaranteeing that the Redskins would actually be the ones to win the division, which led to the only NFC East team that didn’t talk trash in August winning the Super Bowl? Funny how that happens.

Philly’s pick has to be somebody who can play defense in the middle of the field. A DT, a linebacker, a safety. Their defensive struggles in the ‘wide nine’ were well documented. If Kuechly or Barron or Poe is available, they’ll all be good options.

*Quick word on Mark Barron – I absolutely love this guy. Hard-hitting, super instinctive, can actually defend the pass. Basically a bigger, smarter, stronger, faster version of Louis Delmas, only with much better coverage skills.

The Crimson Tide defense could see as many as five players drafted in the first round, and while Upshaw and Kirkpatrick get most of the attention, Barron might end up being the best pro. If he falls to 23, I would love to see Detroit employ their BPA strategy and take him; I’m sure plenty of fans would groan at the uselessness of another safety, but it would allow Delmas to play weakside safety and it would allow Spievey to move back to corner, plus it would be like adding another excellent linebacker on running plays. Barron is going to be a stud. Mark my words: Eric Berry and Mark Barron will be the Reed and Polamalu of the next generation.

If Dallas doesn’t take Barron, Philly probably will. If not, they’ll be happy with Fletcher Cox from Mississippi State. He actually reminds me a little bit of Suh, but less physically imposing and without the psychotic, amazing desire to destroy people.

Next is the Jets, who just infuriate me. It’s fine if you want to trade for Tebow, but don’t insult my intelligence by saying “it was a football move.” Clearly, it was a media move. It was a Rex Ryan Ego move. It was a teenage girl saying to her friends “Does this shirt look cute on me?” Come on.

Speaking of insults to my intelligence, how about the Grand Rapids Press putting up billboards for their website, saying “The Press isn’t going anywhere. It’s going everywhere.” Yeah, kind of like the phonograph and the horsedrawn carriage. Seriously, if it hadn’t taken them a decade to figure out that newspapers are obsolete, they might have a chance. In a related story, Kodak is bankrupt because it took them too long to adjust to the digital camera. True story.

Anyway, rest of the NFL draft thoughts later … the latest rumor is that Detroit is interested in Georgia cornerback Brandon Boykin...

Lions in Great Shape ... Tigers Hurting

A couple weeks ago, it appeared the Tigers were headed for 100+ wins and the Lions had some major concerns. Now, the pendulum has swung the other way.

It started with tendinitis in the throwing arm of promising pitcher Jacob Turner. This basically eliminated Turner from the opening-day roster and means either Duane Below or Andy Oliver will be the 5th starter in April. Blegh. I still hope Turner joins the rotation by mid-summer, but we'll see. For now, the 5th starter will continue to be a major weakness for Detroit. Not only because those guys aren't great pitchers, but because they wear down the bullpen.

Then, Miguel Cabrera took a groundball to the face and got 8 stitches. He's out for a couple weeks, and should be ready for the April 5 opener. If he's not, you can bet your farm that Brandon Inge will be the opening day starter at 3rd. I. Hate. Brandon. Inge.

Even if Cabrera is ready for April 5, he'll miss the rest of the preseason. Does this matter with such a great player? Probably not. But seeing the pictures of Cabrera's bloody face just didn't seem like a good omen for the Tigers season.

Then, the good news.

The Lions franchised Cliff Avril, keeping him on the team for at least one more year. They re-signed DT Andre Fluellen as well. The D line looks very solid: Suh, Fairley, Avril, KVB, and Fluellen/Jackson/Young coming off the bench. It looks like Corey Williams is the variable. Is there a spot for him along with Suh and Fairley? Isn't that too much money to invest at DT?

Then, the Lions pulled off a stunner by re-signing Stephen Tulloch for five years. I have no idea how this happened, with a half-dozen teams pursuing Tulloch and offering him plenty of money. The Lions just gave a record contract to Megatron, but they somehow are able to pay Tulloch as well. That probably means that we're not spending any money in free agency, except for inconsequential CB Jacob Lacey, who Detroit just added for secondary depth and a possible nickel CB. But who cares. Tulloch was the best free agent on the market who fit a need for Detroit. Fantastic job retaining him.

This also means that DE and MLB are positions that can safely be taken off the Lions draft board for the 1st round. DT and RB too, and of course WR and QB. That's assuming that the Lions management aren't completely incompetent, which I hope is a safe assumption.

That means were looking at OLB, CB, tackle, center, guard, and safety. Lots of options ... I'll have some update on that later .... Go Lions!

Where Will Tebow Land? ... And, Does It Matter?

If you haven't heard by now, Peyton Manning is headed to Denver. The only thing about this that surprised me was the contract - apparently 5 years, $90 something million. That's a lot of money and a lot of years for a guy coming off an entire missed season. I was thinking it would be 3 or 4 years and $50-60 million. Maybe Manning was driving up the price by working out with the Niners and Titans. Who knows.

A lot of dominoes will now fall into place; Alex Smith will re-sign with San Fran, Hasselbeck will stay in Tennessee until Jake Locker's ready to go; and of course Kevin Kolb will remain the man in Arizona. Those three teams were never in severe QB turmoil.

But with Matt Flynn signing in Seattle (for significantly less money than I thought he would), two teams are left without a chair. Cleveland and Miami. Of these, Miami has a better current QB with Matt Moore, but both teams want to make a serious move.

And now, there's a new quarterback on the market. He comes with a dysfunctional throwing motion, 200 million fans and the ability to cure diseases with his tears. Yes, that's right, the most popular athlete in American (literally), Tim Tebow, is now completely up for grabs.

But the question is ... who wants to bring the circus to town?

If you like handsomeness and six-game winning streaks, if you like constant references to "my Lord and Savior," and if you really, really, really like attention, then you want to be the team who trades for Tim Tebow.

But if you value completion percentage, third-down conversions, and a general ability to throw the football, you might want to stick with Matt Moore and/or Colt McCoy.

We know the following things to be true:

-Miami loves stars. Their owner, Stephen Ross, loves to mingle with celebrities, including partial-team owners JLo, Venus and Serena, and Gloria Estefan. Ross has unsuccessfully pursued big names like Jim Harbaugh and Peyton Manning in consecutive years.

- Tebow played college football in Florida. He is a god there.

- It's not going to take much. Denver will probably trade him for a 3rd round pick just to get the circus out of town. Maybe less.

- Cleveland could use some excitement. Who the heck likes Cleveland? Clearly not Joakim Noah.

However, he's not necessarily going to be acquired as a starter. A lot of teams (New England comes to mind) might want to bring him in solely as a trick-play guy with the hope of maybe developing him as a passer. If he is as teachable as everyone says, maybe he can figure out how to throw like a real NFL QB. If he does, with his size and intangibles, he could be freaking awesome.

I wouldn't be shocked if something happens soon. I'm sure John Elway wants to get this monkey off his back as soon as possible. My darkhorse guess is KC. Run-first team, good D, could use a quarterback to compete with Cassel. I could also see Oakland making a move for him, or maybe the Jets.

Let's see what happens. Go Lions.

Quarterback Carousel and Other News

With Peyton Manning touring the country and RG3 headed to Washington, I thought it might be time for some sprawling thoughts on the NFL. After all, this is the least engrossing NCAA tournament I've ever seen, baseball is still three weeks away, my two favorite NBA players have suffered season-ending injuries (Chauncey and Rubio), and the Heat have already won the next 3 NBA titles. Did I mention, I haven't even looked at a bracket yet this year?

I was going to delve into a "What happened to college basketball?" dissertation, but then I realized ... I don't even care. So let's talk about football.

The Draft is about six weeks away, but the top 3 picks are already set in stone. Indy will take Luck, Washington will take RG3, and the Vikings will pick left tackle Matt Kalil. I don't recall a draft ever being that clear a month ahead of time.

We've known Luck was going #1 forever, but it became officially official when the Colts released Peyton. Luck is going to be a star, but I don't know how good he'll be as a rookie. Can't wait to watch him.

In order to secure the #2 pick, Washington gave St. Louis their #6 pick this year and their first round picks in the 2013 and 2014 drafts, along with a future second-rounder. This trade will be great for one team and terrible for the other, and, if I may play the "obvious card," it will depend on how good RG3 is.

If Griffin totally sucks, combined with the Rams sucking again, St. Louis could be picking TWICE in the top 5 next year. Heck, they could theoretically have the #1 and #2 pick. With the new rookie wage scale, that wouldn't actually be a death sentence; it would be amazing.

But if Griffin is fantastic, and the Rams improve under Jeff Fisher, St. Louis could end up with two picks in the 20s. That would make this trade a disaster for St. Louis, because by giving up the #2 pick this year they lost out on Kalil, who will undoubtedly be one of the best offensive linemen in football as soon as next season.

Most realistically, Washington and St. Louis will both win between 5 and 7 games and the Rams will be picking 10th and 15th next year. Not bad. Plus, they could trade both of those picks up to #1 if they want to give up on Sam Bradford and take Matt Barkley.

The biggest winner in the RG3 trade was Minnesota, who gets Kalil at pick #3. The biggest losers are the Lions, Bears and Packers. Just sayin.

At pick #4, the Browns smartly bowed out of the RG3 auction and kept their picks. They are being criticized for not wanting to give up pick #22 in this year's draft in order to obtain a potential franchise QB, but the reality is they would've had to give up a 2013 first rounder as well, and that's probably a top 5 pick, maybe a #1 pick. In other words, I think Holmgren did the right thing; if the reward was Andrew Luck, I absolutely would have traded 3 first round picks to get him. But I'm not as sold on RG3 as everyone else.

Admittedly, I wasn't sold on Cam Newton either. But this is different. Newton dominated the SEC, which I've come to realize is a really big deal (do you realize Alabama's defense alone could yield 5 first round picks?). Griffin put up monster stats against Stephen F. Austin University, and I'm still not very impressed by that. Remember how Denard Robinson runs for 350 yards against Central Michigan every September? Isn't that basically what Griffin3 did last year?

We'll see. Maybe Griffin will be Cam Newton 2.0. He's smaller, albeit faster, than Newton, but with less of a cannon. Everyone says he can make all the throws at the NFL level, but I'll believe that when I see him play against NFL defenses.

With that said, let's review the crazy happenings of the last 48 hours.

• Brandon Marshall punches a woman in a club at 4am, then gets traded to the Bears the next day for 3rd round picks. But because the word "allegedly" is used, he won't get in any trouble. What a bunch of bull. As a Lions fan, I should be worried that the Bears addressed their biggest weakness, but I'm still not sold on Jay Cutler as a winning quarterback. It's not like those Cutler-Marshall Bronco teams were making the playoffs.
• That said, Marshall-to-the-Bears gives the Lions one more reason to fix their secondary. Unfortunately, we lost Eric Wright to Tampa, and Cortland Finnegan (who had the Jim Schwartz connection) signed with St. Louis. The other marquee CB was Brandon Carr, who signed with Dallas.
• Other worthwhile CBs, such as Carlos Rogers, Terrell Thomas, Rashean Mathis, re-signed with their current teams. So in other words, the Lions better address the CB issue in the draft.
• Two names that haven't popped up yet on the Free Agent Tracker are Stephen Tulloch and Cliff Avril. It will be very tough for Detroit to keep both guys, especially after shelling out $132 million ($60 guaranteed) to Calvin Johnson. Speaking of which ...
• Yeah that's a lot of money. But there's not a person on the face of the planet who can do what Calvin Johnson can do, and in terms of supply & demand, it makes sense for him to be paid accordingly. As a Lions fan, I'll gladly pitch in $50 towards this contract. The dude earned it, and kudos to the Ford family for keeping Megatron in Detroit.
• The concern whenever somebody signs a monstrous deal like this is that laziness will follow. You could ask Albert Haynesworth or all the a-holes on this list about that. But Calvin isn't that kind of guy. I have no worries about this deal.
• I think Avril will be gone soon. Pass-rushers get insane money these days (Charles Johnson got what, $72 million last year?). Whoever signs him for 5-years, $65 million is going to realize that he isn't the same player without a certain Suh next to him. I say good riddance. Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young can get the job done for 10% of the money.
• However, if we do lose Avril, make no mistake: Schwartz will spend our 1st round pick on a DE, and defend himself by saying KVB is getting old and we just lost Avril, and we'll all nod and say "Yeah, that makes sense," while realizing that means another season of Backus and Alphonso Smith. Kind of like what happened last year with Fairley. Remember, at all times, Schwartz is thinking to himself "Sacks, sacks, sacks, sacks ..."
• If we lose Avril, that likely means we retain Tulloch, who will probably take less money to stay in Detroit anyway. That means we've got the 3 starters at linebacker (Levy, Tulloch, Durant) figured out for 2012. Also, don't forget we've got LeShoure coming back at running back, which is like having another 1st round rookie.
• Other noteworthy free agent deals from around the NFL:
• Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks (1st team All Pro guard) to the Bucs - 5 years each.
• That's two splashy moves for the Tampa offense, who also has the #5 pick. They could add a stud CB (Claiborne) or RB (Richardson) with that pick, or a much-needed pass-rusher. Tampa is making some noticeable moves with the abundant cap space they have, and they deserve credit for stealing a key player from a division rival. However, I'm going to plagiarize walterfootball.com and say: " Players who come from great franchises and go to bad teams solely for the money seldom pan out." I have my doubts about Nicks, and to a lesser degree, V-Jack. Maybe the reason Nicks was so good on the Saints had something to do with Drew Brees? And maybe Jackson benefited from having Philip Rivers throw him the ball?
• Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan to the Redskins; Robert Meachem to the Chargers; Laurent Robinson to the Jags. All of those guys got WAAY too much money. Other receivers, such as Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, and DeSean Jackson, stayed with their teams, and were all paid properly. I'm really surprised Wayne isn't following Manning to Denver/Tennessee/Arizona/Miami.
• I'm not even going to mention Randy Moss and his 1-year deal with the 49ers. Let's wait and see if he even makes the team.
  
• Madden Cover Boy Peyton Hillis spent last season faking illnesses and pissing off the Cleveland front office, then signed with KC as a backup running back for a whopping 1 year, $3 million. The Curse lives.
• A whole bunch of backup quarterbacks moved around - Chad Henne to the Jags, Jason Campbell to the Bears, Kyle Orton to the Cowboys. Each one of these signings will end up being important in the inevitable events of injuries to Romo and Cutler and the benching of Blaine Gabbert.
• A ton of really good players re-signed with their current teams. Ahmad Brooks with the 49ers, Dqwell Jackson with the Browns, Sione Pouha with the Jets, Nick Hardwick with the Chargers, Red Bryant with the Seahawks, Paul Soliai with the Dolphins, Mathis with the Colts, Finley with the Packers, Cole with the Eagles, Foster with the Texans. The one I disagree with the most is Steve Johnson re-signing with the Bills for 5 years, $36 million. Never pay a #2 receiver like he's a #1 receiver.
• A couple of superstars are pissed about the dreaded "franchise tag." Namely, Drew Brees and Matt Forte. Both will play for their respective teams in 2012, but maybe not very happily.
• The two most important free agents are yet to be signed, and will hopefully make a decision within the day. Peyton Manning, of course, and Mario Williams. Both among the 10 best players in football, both coming off season-ending injuries. Manning, as you know, is deciding between the Broncos, Titans, Cardinals, and maybe Dolphins. Williams seems headed to either Buffalo for max money, for Houston for loyalty and the hometown discount. I don't have any solid predictions, just total guesses. I see Peyton going to Nashville and Mario to Buffalo. I'm just glad both guys are staying in the AFC.
• Just as I was typing this list, the Saints made a huge move to replace Carl Nicks, signing Ben Grubbs from Baltimore, who might actually be the best guard in football. They got him for less money, and Tampa is in a collective state of nausea right now.
• So if Peyton goes to Denver, what does that mean for Tim Tebow? Does he remain the backup? Does Denver bring in a real backup and make Tebow the trick-play-guy-and-two-point-conversion-specialist? Or does Denver trade him? Well, as John Clayton reported, the Tebow-heads-home-to-Jacksonville deals are off the table now that Henne is there. But like I said earlier, I think Manning is staying in the AFC South, and Elway will have to suffer through another season of Tebowmania.
• Presumably, if Manning doesn't sign with Arizona or Miami, Kevin Kolb and Matt Moore are likely to keep their jobs, especially the highly-paid Kolb. But what about Matt Flynn? The 6-TD game against Detroit (you know, the game that forced us to play New Orleans in the first round instead of the Giants, who we would have probably beat and caused the idiotic Eli-mania to never happen) has made Flynn into a crazily-coveted "franchise" quarterback, which is hilarious when you realize that he was 0-2 as a starter in 2010, including a loss to Detroit where Green Bay scored only 3 points. But oh well, the Flynnsanity is gaining steam.
• Washington is off the table, and the likely landing spots are either Cleveland or Miami. I have no clue what will happen, but whoever doesn't get Flynn will probably draft a quarterback pretty early.
• After Luck and Griffin, the top QB available is Ryan Tannehill from Texas A&M. If he escapes Cleveland at #4 and Miami at #8, he could fall to Seattle, who can't even get an audience with Manning or Flynn, at pick #12. But my guess is that Pete Carroll is going to freefall into oblivion, secure the #1 pick next year, and start over with Matt Barkey.
• After Tannehill, there are three or four quarterbacks who will be considered in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounds. Kirk Cousins from MSU, Nick Foles from Arizona, Brandon Weeden from Oklahaoma State, and some dude named Brock from Arizona State. I like Weeden as the only guy with any potential in the NFL, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked late in the 1st round, maybe by Cleveland at #22 if they pass of Flynn/Tannehill. Or maybe Denver at pick #25 if they don't get Manning. That would make Twitter explode once and for all.

Detroit picks 23rd, with lots of CBs and OTs available. The top two corners that might be available (Jenkins and Kirkpatrick) are both in trouble with the law. I don't want to mess with that. I'd rather upgrade Stafford's blind spot with Mike Adams from Ohio State, or Jonathan Martin if he's available. I wouldn't be angry if we picked an OLB (Courney Upshaw maybe) or even a guard (DeCastro from Stanford would be awesome).

Once we get closer to the Draft, I'll have a better idea of which way Detroit will be leaning. I really miss Tom Kowalski at a time like this.

Also, today is the NBA trade deadline, so the Dwight Howard Saga will hopefully come to an end. Although, I think he wants to stay in Orlando until the end of this season, so that when he signs with the Nets in the offseason they aren't ravaged like the Knicks were in order to get Carmelo. They'll keep Brook Lopez, Marshon Brooks, and their 1st round pick, three assets they would have to trade to get Howard. In other words, he is absolutely, positively SCREWING Orlando. But you know what, the Nets aren't winning the title in 2012 even if they add Dwight, and he knows this, so good for him for being intelligent and giving himself the best chance of taking down the Heat in next year's playoffs as a member of the Brooklyn Nets. It's cowardly, calculated, and completely selfish. In other words, he's learned from LeBron.

That's all I got. Go Lions.