Another very average week. 7-7-2 against the spread, 11-5 straight up. That's pretty much automatic lately.
Season:
116-116-11 (50.0%) ATS
149-90 (62.3%) straight up
This playoffs are set in the AFC, thanks to an unbelievably bad performance by the Steelers. Somehow the Bengals have made the postseason two years in a row, despite the fact that I think the Lions could beat them 8 times out of 10. Andy Dalton does not impress me at all; in fact I could see his career having a Sanchez-like plummet in a couple years. Remember, Mark Sanchez won 4 playoff games in his first two seasons, and now he's considered barely a 3rd stringer.
In other news, Tebow is headed to Jacksonville this offseason, where he'll have a chance to compete for the starting job. My prediction - he'll be named the starter early in training camp, the Jags will build an offense around him (new coach, new linemen, new everything), and between a good running game and good defense, the Jags will go 8-8 and flirt with the playoffs, while Justin Blackmon has a miserable time and asks for a trade. If you thought Tebowmania peaked in Denver, wait til Jacksonville wins a few games and ESPN starts shooting off live fireworks on Sportscenter.
The Lions lost again, but really they won, as Calvin went for 225 and established one very incredible record. It was clear the fans, coaches and players wanted the record more than they wanted the win. And they got it. It was more than just a silver lining on a bad season; it was a historic, monumental, unforgettable milestone in the career of a guy who will become one of the best players to ever play. As Bears' Pro Bowl CB Charles Tillman said this week, "He's the LeBron of football."
It looks like AP is going to fall just short of Eric Dickerson's record, barring a 200 yard game, which probably means Peyton Manning will win MVP. The D-MVP battle is a tight competition between three pass-rushers who were rookies last year: JJ Watt, Von Miller, and Aldon Smith. Each guy has a reasonable chance to win it, as they rank 1, 2, and 3 in sacks. In my opinion, Aldon is out because he's the 3rd or 4th best player on his own defense, and Von should win it over JJ because he's more important to his team; without Von, Denver's defense falls apart. Without Watt, Houston still dominates. At least that's my thinking.
Coach of the year could go in about 10 different directions. Pretty much every single coach is either a candidate for this award, or a candidate to be fired. There's almost no middle ground. I think Chuck Pagano will win it for sentimental reasons, and it will be a cool story. But I'd give it to either Kubiak, Jim Harbaugh, or Mike Smith. Heck, Pete Carroll would also be deserving. Yuck.
The NFC playoffs is down to one final spot, and it could go to Minnesota, Chicago, Washington, or the Giants. Dallas can't win the wildcard, but they can win the division with a win over the Redskins, which puts the Redskins in the running for the wildcard, if they get loses from everybody else involved.
Chances are, the Vikings will lose to Green Bay (who has something to play for) and stupid Chicago will end up in the playoffs, unless somehow Detroit musters up enough balls to actually play against them.
Here are the week 17 picks, and a few final predictions:
Bucs (6-9) @ Falcons (13-2)
Predicted Line: ?
Actual Line: None
Not sure if Atlanta's starters will play or not, and thus there's no line posted. My hunch is that Atlanta will treat this like a preseason game, and play Ryan and Co. for the first quarter. I'll set my own line at ATL by 3, and I'll say the Falcons backups aren't able to stop the high-octane Bucs. Tampa 27-23.
Bears (9-6) @ Lions (4-11)
Line: CHI by 3
Pick: Lions by 13.
Jets (6-9) @ Bills (5-10)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3
Actual Line: BUF by 3
How annoying is it that during week 17 when all sorts of playoff scenarios abound, the only thing they're talking about on ESPN radio is the Jets? It's very annoying. I don't care if Rex Ryan plays quarterback. The Jets suck.
But, so do the Bills. My guess is the Jets will have more fight left in them than Buffalo. Let's say Jets 13-10.
Ravens (10-5) @ Bengals (9-6)
Predicted Line: BAL by 3
Actual Line: CIN by 3
Oops. Didn't realize both teams have virtually nothing to play for. Baltimore can't get a first round bye, and Cincy can't win the division. Both teams will be playing to avoid injuries. Watching the Bengals/Steelers last week (with a houseful of knucklehead Steelers fans), I learned that Cincy absolutely sucks, especially on offense, and that they shouldn't be trusted against anybody. Pittsburgh had about 50 chances to win that game and make the playoffs. But don't think I'm not rejoicing in their demise.
I like Baltimore by 6.
Jags (2-13 @ Titans (5-10)
Line: TEN by 4
Pick: Jags by 3
Texans (12-3) @ Colts (10-5)
Line: HOU by 7
Pick: Colts by 2
Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (7-8)
Line: NO by 5.5
Pick: Saints by 4
Eagles (4-11) @ Giants (8-7)
Line: NYG by 7
Pick: NYG by 13
Browns (5-10) @ Steelers (7-8)
Line: PIT by 11
Pick: PIT by 6
Chiefs (2-13) @ Broncos (12-3)
Line: DEN by 17
Pick: Broncos by 20
Packers (11-4) @ Vikings (9-6)
Line: GB by 3.5
Pick: Packers by 4
Dolphins (7-8) @ Pats (11-4)
Line: NE by 10
Pick: NE by 35
Raiders (4-11) @ Chargers (6-9)
Line: SD by 10
Pick: OAK by 2
Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (10-4)
Line: SF by 17
Pick: SF by 23.
Rams (7-7-1) @ Seahawks (10-5)
Line: SEA by 11
Pick: Seahawks by 6
Cowboys (8-7) @ Redskins (9-6)
Line: WAS by 3.5
Pick: DAL by 3
Coaches fired on Monday:
6 (Reid, Norv, Crennel, Shurmur, Gailey, Rivera)
Additional coaches fired by end of January:
3 (Rex Ryan, Ken Whisenhunt, Lovie Smith)
Super Bowl pick:
I still like my preseason pick: Patriots over Packers.
Go Lions!
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Te'o or Milliner? ... Plus week 16's picks
That means the Lions are assured one of the top overall prospects in this draft. To me, it comes down to two players:
Manti Te'o, inside linebacker, Notre Dame
6'2", 255lbs, senior, born in Hawaii
Heisman trophy runner-up
Tabbed as "the next Ray Lewis"
DeMarcus "Dee" Milliner, cornerback, Alabama
6'1", 200lbs, junior, born in Alabama
Best shutdown cornerback in NCAA
Could be the next Darrelle Revis
There are other elite prospects that warrant consideration in the top 10. Certainly OLB Jarvis Jones from Georgia, but he'll probably go in the top 3. Texas A&M's Luke Joeckel will be the first offensive tackle selected, but can Detroit draft back-to-back tackles when the defense is in shambles? There are a few great DTs and pass rushers, but if Schwartz takes another D-linemen, it's going to really piss people off, and rightly so.
So to me, the decision comes down to linebacker or cornerback. Te'o or Milliner. Who will it be?
According to ESPN's Draft Board, Te'o is the #7 overall prospect and Milliner is #11. At CBSsports.com, Milliner is #4 and Te'o is #5. Drafttek.com ranks Milliner at #5 and Te'o at #7.
From my own perspective, watching Youtube clips, reading articles, watching interviews ... these might be the two most NFL-ready players in the entire class. I'm a little surprised they're not ranked #1 and #2.
Both guys have almost no red flags. They have both showcased leadership skills, durability, consistency, intelligence, and a selfless team attitude. Te'o is stronger in the intangibles (he's basically a hybrid of Tebow's personality with Patrick Willis' skills) but Milliner isn't exactly a low-life. He's made it through the corrupt Alabama program without getting arrested, suspended, or accepting free tattoos. So either guy would improve the assholeish nature of the Lions.
What impressed me most about Te'o is his speed. Combined with great instincts and perfect tackling form, he is almost Polamalu-esque in the way he appears to cover the entire field and bring runners down with ease and pain. He has anchored an undefeated Irish team all year, been their emotional leader and best player, and he would be useful in an NFC North that feature AP and Forte.
However, Milliner is equally impressive to watch. His ball-coverage skills are already superior to any cornerback the Lions have employed since .... Dre Bly? Ray Crocket?? Dick LeBeau???? Both guys will be immediate starters and possibly Pro Bowlers in their rookie seasons, but Milliner appears to be the guy more likely to dominate the NFL right away. Sure-tackling linebackers are pretty common, but shtudown corners are a rarity. I know I'm prone to hyperbole at times, but his coverage skills can easily be compared to Darrelle Revis. He has that combination of strength, speed, acceleration, quick hands, intelligence, and size. To say he'd be an immediate upgrade over Chris Houston is an understatement.
Te'o would also become the Lions' best linebacker right away, but the gap between him and Stephen Tulloch would be minimal. Tulloch is a great player, and Te'o's presence would move Tulloch to outside linebacker, which might not be a good fit. The deciding factor will probably be what happens before the draft with our many free agents. Along with Avril, VandenBosch, Gosder, and many others, our two starting outside linebackers - Levy and Durant - are both unrestricted free agents. And both guys have played well enough to earn sizable contracts elsewhere. If we manage to retain either guy, it'll be surprising. That's why I think Te'o has a good chance at being the pick.
Unfortunately, Chris Houston is also unrestricted. If the Lions lose him, they need to draft Milliner, because cornerback depth is not something we have. Linebacker depth, on the other hand, is more promising; Tahir Whitehead and Travis Lewis supposedly are coming along nicely and ready to play.
Assuming the Lions aren't able to beat Atlanta or Chicago (a fair guess), we'll probably end up picking 4th or 5th overall. Both Te'o and Milliner should be available. Due to our hellish salary cap situation induced by Stafford, Calvin and Suh's massive deals, it'll be nearly impossible to retain any good players. Avril is gone, at least one of the linebackers is gone (maybe both), Delmas might leave if he's not franchised, and Houston is probably gone too. This could be one of those cases where you trade down and collect picks and try to meet multiple needs in one draft, but let's be honest, the Lions ability to find a starter in the 2nd round is minuscule at best. When you're looking at the future Patrick Willis and Darrelle Revis, you don't trade down for two Boss Baileys.
It's too early now to make a real prediction, especially since some unknown guy always flies up the draft board and becomes a top 5 pick in March, but if I had to lean one way now, I'd say Milliner.
Realistically, the Lions will probably take Keenan Allen, receiver from California, because, you know, you can never have enough offensive weapons.
Last week:
6-10 ATS
10-6 straight up
8-6 over/unders
Season:
109-109-9 (50.0%) ATS
138-85 (61.8%) straight up
19-10 over/unders (65.5%)
Let's hit the week 16 picks:
Falcons (12-2) @ Lions (4-10)
Saturday night - 8:30, ESPN
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 4.5
With Detroit getting embarrassed by nine-game-losing-streak Arizona, it's no surprise 85% of the public is betting on the road favorite. But I'm going the other way. Detroit will step up its game for a few reasons:
- This game is nationally televised, they want to spare themselves more embarrassment.
- They want to help Schwartz keep his job; for whatever reason, the team likes him.
- They hate Atlanta; remember all this nonsense?
- They love shootouts. Calvin will embrace the challenge of outshining Julio and Roddy.
- Calvin is gunning for a major, major record.
- Stafford needs 375 yards per game over the next 2 games for 5,000; he definitely wants it.
- Mostly, they want to prove they are better than 4-10, and how better to do it than beating a 12-2 team on national TV right before Christmas?
Unfortunately, Atlanta is better coached, better quarterbacked, smarter, more disciplined, has a great offensive line, commits the fewest penalties in the NFL, and they continually feed off their lack of national respect. Detroit may actually possess the most talented roster, but in terms of execution and gameplan, it's no contest.
I think Atlanta will win, but Detroit will find a way to make it interesting. Final score: 28-24, Falcons.
(Over 51)
Saints (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 3
Actual Line: DAL by 3
Dallas did what I figured they would do: kept themselves in the playoff hunt despite all odds. Thanks to a no-show from the Giants and Bears, Dallas is right in the mix. If Seattle loses to San Fran this week (likely) and Minnesota loses in Houston (also likely), Dallas will be right in contention.
But, as I said two weeks ago, Dallas was going to get back in the race only because they're Dallas and they create drama. They aren't actually getting into the playoffs. They're just way too undisciplined and dumb and they have too much Tony Romo. Plus, the Saints just won 41-0, so now's not the time to bet against Drew Brees. I'll say the Saints end the Cowboys season and officially commence the hyperactive "AHHH TONY ROMO AHHH" discussion. New Orleans 34-16.
(Under 51.5)
Titans (5-9) @ Packers (10-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 13.5
Actual Line: GB by 13
Green Bay has clinched the division, but they're still playing for a first-round bye. So they should come out with guns blazing and looking to rack up some points. Tennessee doesn't have the defense to slow them down. Packers 38-13.
(Over 46)
Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (2-12)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 7
With just two weeks to go, KC can't afford another win if they want to secure Geno Smith. So they should be in full-tank mode. Even if they weren't, I'm not sure they can score any points or stop anybody.
However, I'm taking the points, simply because 7 points is a few too many for a road favorite when that road favorite has a terrible defense and is going against Jamaal Charles. Let's say Colts 24-19.
(Over 41.5)
Bills (5-9) @ Dolphins (6-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 3
Actual Line: MIA by 4.5
Not much time to write these ... sorry.
This looks like too many points ... Dolphins by 3.
Chargers (5-9) @ Jets (6-8)
Line: Jets by 1
I liked Bill Simmons' pick of Jets 4, Chargers 3. But since that would be a tie on the spread, I'll say Jets win 5-3 and cover.
Redskins (8-6) @ Eagles (4-10)
Line: WAS by 7
Redskins have something to play for, Eagles don't. RG3 makes a big final push for ROY. Skins 34-24.
Bengals (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)
Line: PIT by 3
Go Bengals!! But I doubt it. Steelers 24-20.
Rams (6-7-1) @ Bucs (6-8)
Line: TB by 3
Should be a close game. But Bucs have more offense. Tampa 30-26.
Raiders (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9)
Line: CAR by 10
Carson is the king of garbage time. Gotta take the points. Panthers 27-20.
Patriots (10-4) @ Jags (2-12)
Line: NE by 15
Make it Pats by 30 and I would still take the favorites.
Vikings (8-6) @ Texans (12-2)
Line: HOU by 9
Christian Ponder has been more and more awful as the weeks go by, but AP keeps games close and will be single-mindedly focusing on another 200 yard game. I'll say Texans by 6.
Browns (5-9) @ Broncos (11-3)
Line: DEN by 14
Lot of huge lines this week. I'm counting on big games for Brady, Rodgers and Manning as they all cover 13+. With the MVP on the line, it makes sense for them to be padding their stats a little. I think Broncos rack up 30 in the first half and cruise.
Bears (8-6) @ Cardinals (5-9)
Line: CHI by 6
Last week was a fluke. Ryan Lindley is still the optimum guy to bet against. Bears by 20.
Giants (8-6) @ Ravens (9-5)
Line: Giants by 1
Who knows. Could flip coins all day and still have be 100% sure I'll get this pick wrong. I'll just take the home team; Ravens by 3.
49ers (10-3-1) @ Seahawks (9-5)
Line: SF by 1
As good as Seattle is at home, San Fran is just the better team. Plus they won in New England last week. And Colin Kaepernick .... I'll go Niners 20-13.
Go Lions. Merry Christmas.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
15
I'm really hoping to stay above .500 for the year's picks, but it might not be easy. I went an ugly 6-8-2 ATS and 9-7 straight up during this weird, weird week that saw the Steelers, Saints and Falcons get killed and the Seahawks win by 58 points.
Overall:
103-99-9 (50.9%) ATS
128-79 (61.8%) straight-up
Luck and Griffin continued their amazing rookie crusades with last-second wins, the Lions botched another winnable game, the Jets are still alive in the playoffs despite being horrendous, the Browns won by 23 points (their biggest win since 2003), Nick Foles was a stud, the Cowboys stayed alive, the Bucs died, and the MVP comes down to Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning, two guys that we didn't even think for sure were healthy enough to play this season.
Also ... Colin Kaepernick is going to be a star QB very soon, Tom Brady embarrassed the Texans so badly that JJ Watt could lose the D-MVP to Von Miller as a result, and Calvin Johnson and AP both inched closer to breaking a couple of incredible single-season yardage records. I picked the Niners-Dolphins game exactly (27-13), and went 11-4 in my first week of ever guessing the over/under on total scores. (Not bad!)
In Draft news, KC and Jacksonville essentially locked in the 1st and 2nd picks, with KC going 1st right now by virtue of the tiebreaker. (Maybe it won't be a QB after all ... Geno Smith stock is dropping). Detroit has a chance to pick as high as 3rd, or as low as 10th. Two stud players the Lions sorely need are in that range - CB Dee Milliner and LB Manti Te'o. I'm almost rooting for Detroit to lose to Arizona, but not really, because that's humiliating.
Here are my week 15 picks:
Bengals (7-6) @ Eagles (4-9)
Predicted Line: PHI by 2
Actual Line: CIN by 5
The 6th playoff spot in the AFC is basically going to come down to Pittsburgh or Cincy, unless both teams implode and the Jets sneak in. Philly, after losing eight straight, has found a leader in Nick Foles, who was stinking fantastic against Tampa. If the next few games go well for Foles, he'll be their starting QB in 2013, and he just might save Andy Reid's job.
I'm taking the Eagles for two reasons: they're a 5-point homedog, and Nnamdi Asomugha should be able to slow down AJ Green, who is really the only weapon Cincinnati has. Although Nnamdi has had a really bad year by his standards, he's still one of the few guys alive who can limit AJ Green. Bengals 23-20.
(Under 45.5)
Giants (8-5) @ Falcons (11-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 1
I'm pretty sure Atlanta's the better team, and should be favored by more than 1. This looks like a total overreaction spread. I'll say Falcons 28-23.
(Under 51)
Packers (9-3) @ Bears (8-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 3
Another overreaction line. Everybody is freaking out about Brian Urlacher's injury, but Urlacher is barely the fifth best player on his own defense (Peppers, Briggs, Tillman, Jennings). By contrast, Green Bay is still without Woodson and Matthews, who are both significantly better than Urlacher. I hate Chicago and Jay Cutler was awful last week, (almost had 2 pick-sixes), but they probably shouldn't be a 3 point underdog at home. That said, Green Bay is rolling and I've picked against the Bears all season, so why stop now. Packers 27-17.
(Over 42)
Redskins (7-6) @ Browns (5-8)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 1
Griffin is somewhere between questionable and probable. In the interests of winning ROY (not to mention they have an outside chance at the playoffs), he should definitely start. If he does, I'm taking Washington. If not, I'm probably still taking Washington. Cleveland winning 4 in a row isn't a scenario I can fathom.
Griffin is out; Kirk Cousins is starting. I guess I'll stick with the Redskins, 23-21.
Vikings (7-6) @ Rams (6-6-1)
Predicted Line: STL by 1
Actual Line: STL by 3
I managed to watch most of the Vikings-Bears game last week, and it's clear that Adrian Peterson is gunning for nothing less than Eric Dickerson's record. He needs 168 rushing yards per game over the next 3 games. Which means, he needs a big 200+ game and he'll get there. Could this be that game?
Common sense would lean towards no, because the Rams rank 6th against the run. Jeff Fisher has them playing excellent defense, only giving up 30 points twice, to QBs named Rodgers and Brady. The Rams are a tremendous 9-4 ATS this year, and Fisher has done more with less talent than any other coach in the league. Not sure who will win Coach of the Year ... Kubiak, Jim Harbaugh, Belichick maybe ... but Fisher should at least be in the discussion. He won't win it, because the Rams aren't going to the playoffs, but he's done a great job.
Anyway, three observations concerning the Vikings:
1) Christian Ponder has clearly regressed. He was awful last week, as he's been awful for a while. Throwing off his back foot, missing open guys, panicking in the pocket. All with 9 guys in the box focused on AP. Pretty sad how his career began with so much potential and now it's tumbling to the ground. Oh well.
2) Matt Kalil is amazing. A very worthy top 5 pick last year. He held his own against a tough Bears' D-line, including Julius Peppers on several plays. It's clear how much Adrian Peterson appreciates him. And it's pretty clear he should be in the Pro Bowl.
3) The Vikings defense is crap. Other than Jared Allen of course. But that secondary looked as lost as the Lions'.
So I'm taking the Rams, I guess. I think AP runs for about 145 yards, but Ponder betrays him and the Rams win this one 26-20.
(Over 38.5)
Jaguars (2-11) @ Dolphins (5-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 4.5
Actual Line: MIA by 7.5
Miami likes to lose low-scoring, with an average score of 16-20. Jacksonville likes to lose big, 13-27 on average.
So I'm not real sure what to do with this spread. I don't think Ryan Tannehill has earned the right to be favored by 7 against anyone. Chad Henne's the better QB in this game, and he's facing his former team, which might give him some added motivation. I guess I like the Jags to keep it close. Maybe 20-14, Dolphins.
(Under 37)
Bucs (6-7) @ Saints (5-8)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 3.5
I'm so sick of hearing about the Bounty thing. I hope I never hear about it again. Bucs 34-27.
(Over 53)
Broncos (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 3
Pretty sure there's a rule about not betting against Peyton Manning when he's on an 8 game winning streak. Plus, Baltimore has been overrated all year, and it's finally catching up with them, as this could be their third straight loss. How about Broncos 31-20.
(Over 48)
Colts (9-4) @ Texans (11-2)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 10
I'm pretty sure Luck is good enough that he shouldn't be a 9 point dog against anyone. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure. Houston 27-24.
(Over 48)
Seahawks (8-5) @ Bills (5-8)
Predicted Line: SEA by 3
Actual Line: SEA by 6
Remember when that idiot Richard Sherman trash-talked Tom Brady back in week 6, and I said
"It's like a mailman talking trash to Obama because they are both government employees and the mailman had a good day."
Well, Sherman has turned out to be a better mailman that anyone expected. The 2011 5th round pick (taken a whopping 110 picks after Titus Young) is already being called the best shutdown cornerback in football. By a lot of people. Including: Pro Football Focus, Ron Jaworski, Bleacher Report, WalterFootball, New England Sports Network, and of course, Himself.
So from this point forward, we have to consider Sherman's impact when picking the games. That entire Seattle defense is kicking serious butt, but Sherman just held Larry Fitzgerald to 1 catch and 2 yards, so he's their star right now. It goes to figure that he'll shut down Stevie Johnson, but the Bills' offense should still be able to move the ball a little. It's sad that Fred Jackson's season-ending injury is actually a good thing for Buffalo, because CJ Spiller is clearly the better runner, and they'll finally be forced to use him. Remember when Jackson got hurt early in the season and Spiller ran for 292 yards in 2 games?
On the flip side, Marshawn Lynch goes into Buffalo to face the team that drafted him 12th overall in 2007. I imagine Bills fans aren't too fond of him. He shmucked around for 3 years, got hurt, arrested, suspended, then was traded for a 4th round pick. Now, he's an undeniable stud and maybe a top 5 RB in the league. Crappy luck for Buffalo.
I just don't believe in taking Seattle on the road, and despite Buffalo's current 2-7 skid, I think they're playing better than their record indicates. But I will take the Seahawks outright, 16-13.
(Under 43)
Lions (4-9) @ Cardinals (4-9)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 6.5
Sheesh. We really have the same record as a team that's lost 9 straight? The only good thing I can say about the 2012 Lions is that they have me really looking forward to baseball season.
Let's look at this by the matchups:
Worst offensive line in NFL history VS. Suh, Fairley, Avril = huge edge to Detroit.
Absolutely no running game VS. Detroit's pretty good linebackers = huge edge to Detroit.
John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, or recently acquired Brian Hoyer = huge, huge, huge win for Detroit.
Larry Fitzgerald VS. Chris Houtson = huge win for Arizona.
The rest of the Cardinals weapons VS. the Lions' secondary = crap against crap. Could go either way.
Cards' defensive line VS. Lions' O-line = decent edge to Arizona.
Stafford VS. a defense that can rush the passer pretty well and cover pretty well too = tie.
Calvin VS. Patrick Peterson = edge to Calvin, obviously, but Peterson is good.
Leshoure and Bell VS. 30th ranked rush defense = edge for Lions
Tony Scheffler, Mike Thomas and Kris Durham VS. Cards' secondary = edge to Arizona.
Ken Whisenhunt VS. Jim Schwartz = edge to Cardinals
Intangibles:
Larry Fitzgerald says the Cardinals have quit = edge for Lions.
Calvin Johnson's pursuit of single-season record = edge for Lions.
Both coaches trying to keep their jobs = tie.
Homefield advantage = edge to Cardinals
Lions feeling embarrassed, disrespected, angry = edge for Lions.
Cardinals just can't wait for this season end = edge for Lions.
4pm EST game = edge for Cardinals.
Just heard the official word. Ryan Lindley will start.
He was worse than numbers can possibly explain in his 3 starts (no offensive touchdowns, 3 defensive touchdowns), but I'm going to refrain from making fun of him because if any defense could give up a 300 yard, 3 TD game to Ryan Lindley, it would be the Lions. In fact, I'm almost positive that will happen.
I'll say Lions win, 31-21.
(Over 44)
Panthers (4-9) @ Chargers (5-8)
Predicted Line: SD by 2
Actual Line: SD by 3
Both teams were very impressive last week, but have found ways to lose close games all season. Carolina is the better team with the better QB and better coach, and I'm really, really sick of the Chargers after all the ways they ruined my fantasy season(s). Panthers 27-13.
(Under 45)
Steelers (7-6) @ Cowboys (7-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 2
Actual Line: PIT by 2
This line probably dropped a point or two because of Dez Bryant's broken finger, which is stupid. Anyway, the guy who would have guarded Dez, Ike Tayor, is also out, as are Pittsburgh's #2 and #3 cornerbacks. The secondary is in shambles, which is why they were thrashed by Phillip Rivers last week. Both of these teams and deeply flawed and deeply talented, and both need to win this game. A loss knocks Dallas out completely, while Pittsburgh can afford to lose as long as they beat the Bengals next week, which we all know they will. So I am actually going to take the homedog; I think the absence of Dez just means good games for Austin, Witten and Murray. Cowboys 33-30.
(Over 44)
Chiefs (2-11) @ Raiders (3-10)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 3
So much for my idiotic belief in Brady Quinn. Apparently a few profound words at a press conference doesn't make someone a good quarterback. I won't make that mistake again.
Oakland may actually want to lose this game, because it gives them a solid chance at the #1 or #2 pick and finding a franchise QB. Their defense is AWFUL (28th against the pass, 26th against the run, 30th in total yards, 31st in sacks, 32nd in points allowed, 29th on third downs) so even if they intend to stop Jamaal Charles, they might not be able to. Offensively, they're not much better. They only gain yards in garbage time. And to top it all off, Oakland is horrible at home: 5-10 over the past two years, and 5-27 ATS against sub .500 teams. So long story short, I'm taking the Chiefs! Man, I'm an idiot. KC 26-13.
(Under 44)
49ers (9-3-1) @ Patriots (10-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 4.5
Winning 7 in a row is always amazing. What's more amazing is scoring more than 40 points per game during that stretch. And it wasn't against a bunch of cupcake defenses; those 7 defense average a rank of 13th best in the NFL, and would be a tad higher if they all hadn't just taken turns getting whipped by the Patriots. So all that to say, if they can thrash Houston, St. Louis, Miami and Buffalo's above average defenses, why can't they do the same to San Francisco? When in doubt, Tom Brady covers the spread 59% of the time, so take the Pats. New England 37-27.
(Over 46.5)
Jets (6-7) @ Titans (4-9)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 1.5
The stupid idiot Jets are going to win again and stay in this playoff race. I actually hope they make the playoffs so Peyton Manning can eradicate them by about 40 points in the first round. Jets win this one, 22-20.
(Over 41.5)
GO Lions.
Overall:
103-99-9 (50.9%) ATS
128-79 (61.8%) straight-up
Luck and Griffin continued their amazing rookie crusades with last-second wins, the Lions botched another winnable game, the Jets are still alive in the playoffs despite being horrendous, the Browns won by 23 points (their biggest win since 2003), Nick Foles was a stud, the Cowboys stayed alive, the Bucs died, and the MVP comes down to Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning, two guys that we didn't even think for sure were healthy enough to play this season.
Also ... Colin Kaepernick is going to be a star QB very soon, Tom Brady embarrassed the Texans so badly that JJ Watt could lose the D-MVP to Von Miller as a result, and Calvin Johnson and AP both inched closer to breaking a couple of incredible single-season yardage records. I picked the Niners-Dolphins game exactly (27-13), and went 11-4 in my first week of ever guessing the over/under on total scores. (Not bad!)
In Draft news, KC and Jacksonville essentially locked in the 1st and 2nd picks, with KC going 1st right now by virtue of the tiebreaker. (Maybe it won't be a QB after all ... Geno Smith stock is dropping). Detroit has a chance to pick as high as 3rd, or as low as 10th. Two stud players the Lions sorely need are in that range - CB Dee Milliner and LB Manti Te'o. I'm almost rooting for Detroit to lose to Arizona, but not really, because that's humiliating.
Here are my week 15 picks:
Bengals (7-6) @ Eagles (4-9)
Predicted Line: PHI by 2
Actual Line: CIN by 5
The 6th playoff spot in the AFC is basically going to come down to Pittsburgh or Cincy, unless both teams implode and the Jets sneak in. Philly, after losing eight straight, has found a leader in Nick Foles, who was stinking fantastic against Tampa. If the next few games go well for Foles, he'll be their starting QB in 2013, and he just might save Andy Reid's job.
I'm taking the Eagles for two reasons: they're a 5-point homedog, and Nnamdi Asomugha should be able to slow down AJ Green, who is really the only weapon Cincinnati has. Although Nnamdi has had a really bad year by his standards, he's still one of the few guys alive who can limit AJ Green. Bengals 23-20.
(Under 45.5)
Giants (8-5) @ Falcons (11-2)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 1
I'm pretty sure Atlanta's the better team, and should be favored by more than 1. This looks like a total overreaction spread. I'll say Falcons 28-23.
(Under 51)
Packers (9-3) @ Bears (8-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 3
Actual Line: GB by 3
Another overreaction line. Everybody is freaking out about Brian Urlacher's injury, but Urlacher is barely the fifth best player on his own defense (Peppers, Briggs, Tillman, Jennings). By contrast, Green Bay is still without Woodson and Matthews, who are both significantly better than Urlacher. I hate Chicago and Jay Cutler was awful last week, (almost had 2 pick-sixes), but they probably shouldn't be a 3 point underdog at home. That said, Green Bay is rolling and I've picked against the Bears all season, so why stop now. Packers 27-17.
(Over 42)
Redskins (7-6) @ Browns (5-8)
Predicted Line: WAS by 3
Actual Line: WAS by 1
Griffin is somewhere between questionable and probable. In the interests of winning ROY (not to mention they have an outside chance at the playoffs), he should definitely start. If he does, I'm taking Washington. If not, I'm probably still taking Washington. Cleveland winning 4 in a row isn't a scenario I can fathom.
Griffin is out; Kirk Cousins is starting. I guess I'll stick with the Redskins, 23-21.
Vikings (7-6) @ Rams (6-6-1)
Predicted Line: STL by 1
Actual Line: STL by 3
I managed to watch most of the Vikings-Bears game last week, and it's clear that Adrian Peterson is gunning for nothing less than Eric Dickerson's record. He needs 168 rushing yards per game over the next 3 games. Which means, he needs a big 200+ game and he'll get there. Could this be that game?
Common sense would lean towards no, because the Rams rank 6th against the run. Jeff Fisher has them playing excellent defense, only giving up 30 points twice, to QBs named Rodgers and Brady. The Rams are a tremendous 9-4 ATS this year, and Fisher has done more with less talent than any other coach in the league. Not sure who will win Coach of the Year ... Kubiak, Jim Harbaugh, Belichick maybe ... but Fisher should at least be in the discussion. He won't win it, because the Rams aren't going to the playoffs, but he's done a great job.
Anyway, three observations concerning the Vikings:
1) Christian Ponder has clearly regressed. He was awful last week, as he's been awful for a while. Throwing off his back foot, missing open guys, panicking in the pocket. All with 9 guys in the box focused on AP. Pretty sad how his career began with so much potential and now it's tumbling to the ground. Oh well.
2) Matt Kalil is amazing. A very worthy top 5 pick last year. He held his own against a tough Bears' D-line, including Julius Peppers on several plays. It's clear how much Adrian Peterson appreciates him. And it's pretty clear he should be in the Pro Bowl.
3) The Vikings defense is crap. Other than Jared Allen of course. But that secondary looked as lost as the Lions'.
So I'm taking the Rams, I guess. I think AP runs for about 145 yards, but Ponder betrays him and the Rams win this one 26-20.
(Over 38.5)
Jaguars (2-11) @ Dolphins (5-8)
Predicted Line: MIA by 4.5
Actual Line: MIA by 7.5
Miami likes to lose low-scoring, with an average score of 16-20. Jacksonville likes to lose big, 13-27 on average.
So I'm not real sure what to do with this spread. I don't think Ryan Tannehill has earned the right to be favored by 7 against anyone. Chad Henne's the better QB in this game, and he's facing his former team, which might give him some added motivation. I guess I like the Jags to keep it close. Maybe 20-14, Dolphins.
(Under 37)
Bucs (6-7) @ Saints (5-8)
Predicted Line: NO by 3
Actual Line: NO by 3.5
I'm so sick of hearing about the Bounty thing. I hope I never hear about it again. Bucs 34-27.
(Over 53)
Broncos (10-3) @ Ravens (9-4)
Predicted Line: DEN by 3
Actual Line: DEN by 3
Pretty sure there's a rule about not betting against Peyton Manning when he's on an 8 game winning streak. Plus, Baltimore has been overrated all year, and it's finally catching up with them, as this could be their third straight loss. How about Broncos 31-20.
(Over 48)
Colts (9-4) @ Texans (11-2)
Predicted Line: HOU by 6.5
Actual Line: HOU by 10
I'm pretty sure Luck is good enough that he shouldn't be a 9 point dog against anyone. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure. Houston 27-24.
(Over 48)
Seahawks (8-5) @ Bills (5-8)
Predicted Line: SEA by 3
Actual Line: SEA by 6
Remember when that idiot Richard Sherman trash-talked Tom Brady back in week 6, and I said
"It's like a mailman talking trash to Obama because they are both government employees and the mailman had a good day."
Well, Sherman has turned out to be a better mailman that anyone expected. The 2011 5th round pick (taken a whopping 110 picks after Titus Young) is already being called the best shutdown cornerback in football. By a lot of people. Including: Pro Football Focus, Ron Jaworski, Bleacher Report, WalterFootball, New England Sports Network, and of course, Himself.
So from this point forward, we have to consider Sherman's impact when picking the games. That entire Seattle defense is kicking serious butt, but Sherman just held Larry Fitzgerald to 1 catch and 2 yards, so he's their star right now. It goes to figure that he'll shut down Stevie Johnson, but the Bills' offense should still be able to move the ball a little. It's sad that Fred Jackson's season-ending injury is actually a good thing for Buffalo, because CJ Spiller is clearly the better runner, and they'll finally be forced to use him. Remember when Jackson got hurt early in the season and Spiller ran for 292 yards in 2 games?
On the flip side, Marshawn Lynch goes into Buffalo to face the team that drafted him 12th overall in 2007. I imagine Bills fans aren't too fond of him. He shmucked around for 3 years, got hurt, arrested, suspended, then was traded for a 4th round pick. Now, he's an undeniable stud and maybe a top 5 RB in the league. Crappy luck for Buffalo.
I just don't believe in taking Seattle on the road, and despite Buffalo's current 2-7 skid, I think they're playing better than their record indicates. But I will take the Seahawks outright, 16-13.
(Under 43)
Lions (4-9) @ Cardinals (4-9)
Predicted Line: DET by 3
Actual Line: DET by 6.5
Sheesh. We really have the same record as a team that's lost 9 straight? The only good thing I can say about the 2012 Lions is that they have me really looking forward to baseball season.
Let's look at this by the matchups:
Worst offensive line in NFL history VS. Suh, Fairley, Avril = huge edge to Detroit.
Absolutely no running game VS. Detroit's pretty good linebackers = huge edge to Detroit.
John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, or recently acquired Brian Hoyer = huge, huge, huge win for Detroit.
Larry Fitzgerald VS. Chris Houtson = huge win for Arizona.
The rest of the Cardinals weapons VS. the Lions' secondary = crap against crap. Could go either way.
Cards' defensive line VS. Lions' O-line = decent edge to Arizona.
Stafford VS. a defense that can rush the passer pretty well and cover pretty well too = tie.
Calvin VS. Patrick Peterson = edge to Calvin, obviously, but Peterson is good.
Leshoure and Bell VS. 30th ranked rush defense = edge for Lions
Tony Scheffler, Mike Thomas and Kris Durham VS. Cards' secondary = edge to Arizona.
Ken Whisenhunt VS. Jim Schwartz = edge to Cardinals
Intangibles:
Larry Fitzgerald says the Cardinals have quit = edge for Lions.
Calvin Johnson's pursuit of single-season record = edge for Lions.
Both coaches trying to keep their jobs = tie.
Homefield advantage = edge to Cardinals
Lions feeling embarrassed, disrespected, angry = edge for Lions.
Cardinals just can't wait for this season end = edge for Lions.
4pm EST game = edge for Cardinals.
Just heard the official word. Ryan Lindley will start.
He was worse than numbers can possibly explain in his 3 starts (no offensive touchdowns, 3 defensive touchdowns), but I'm going to refrain from making fun of him because if any defense could give up a 300 yard, 3 TD game to Ryan Lindley, it would be the Lions. In fact, I'm almost positive that will happen.
I'll say Lions win, 31-21.
(Over 44)
Panthers (4-9) @ Chargers (5-8)
Predicted Line: SD by 2
Actual Line: SD by 3
Both teams were very impressive last week, but have found ways to lose close games all season. Carolina is the better team with the better QB and better coach, and I'm really, really sick of the Chargers after all the ways they ruined my fantasy season(s). Panthers 27-13.
(Under 45)
Steelers (7-6) @ Cowboys (7-6)
Predicted Line: DAL by 2
Actual Line: PIT by 2
This line probably dropped a point or two because of Dez Bryant's broken finger, which is stupid. Anyway, the guy who would have guarded Dez, Ike Tayor, is also out, as are Pittsburgh's #2 and #3 cornerbacks. The secondary is in shambles, which is why they were thrashed by Phillip Rivers last week. Both of these teams and deeply flawed and deeply talented, and both need to win this game. A loss knocks Dallas out completely, while Pittsburgh can afford to lose as long as they beat the Bengals next week, which we all know they will. So I am actually going to take the homedog; I think the absence of Dez just means good games for Austin, Witten and Murray. Cowboys 33-30.
(Over 44)
Chiefs (2-11) @ Raiders (3-10)
Predicted Line: OAK by 3
Actual Line: OAK by 3
So much for my idiotic belief in Brady Quinn. Apparently a few profound words at a press conference doesn't make someone a good quarterback. I won't make that mistake again.
Oakland may actually want to lose this game, because it gives them a solid chance at the #1 or #2 pick and finding a franchise QB. Their defense is AWFUL (28th against the pass, 26th against the run, 30th in total yards, 31st in sacks, 32nd in points allowed, 29th on third downs) so even if they intend to stop Jamaal Charles, they might not be able to. Offensively, they're not much better. They only gain yards in garbage time. And to top it all off, Oakland is horrible at home: 5-10 over the past two years, and 5-27 ATS against sub .500 teams. So long story short, I'm taking the Chiefs! Man, I'm an idiot. KC 26-13.
(Under 44)
49ers (9-3-1) @ Patriots (10-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 7
Actual Line: NE by 4.5
Winning 7 in a row is always amazing. What's more amazing is scoring more than 40 points per game during that stretch. And it wasn't against a bunch of cupcake defenses; those 7 defense average a rank of 13th best in the NFL, and would be a tad higher if they all hadn't just taken turns getting whipped by the Patriots. So all that to say, if they can thrash Houston, St. Louis, Miami and Buffalo's above average defenses, why can't they do the same to San Francisco? When in doubt, Tom Brady covers the spread 59% of the time, so take the Pats. New England 37-27.
(Over 46.5)
Jets (6-7) @ Titans (4-9)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 3
Actual Line: TEN by 1.5
The stupid idiot Jets are going to win again and stay in this playoff race. I actually hope they make the playoffs so Peyton Manning can eradicate them by about 40 points in the first round. Jets win this one, 22-20.
(Over 41.5)
GO Lions.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Week Fourteen
Yet another mediocre week of picks. I went 8-7-1 ATS and 11-5 straight up for the second straight week. I'm now 29-29-2 over the past four weeks. Talk about consistency.
For the year, I am:
97-91-7 ATS (51.5%)
119-72 straight up (62.3%)
For a little history, in 2010 I picked the games only straight-up, and had stunning 67% accuracy. In 2011 I picked only ATS, and ended up at an equally stunning 54.1%. Last year, I picked both ATS and straight up, and was a solid 51.7% and 67.5%.
I'm hoping to exceed last year's 51.7% mark, but 67.5% is nearly impossible at this point, barring the elusive 16-0 week.
With the Lions' fourth straight loss being the most crushing one yet, I don't feel like talking much about last week's games. Let's just say I should have changed my pick to KC+3 after the events that took place in Kansas City. Also, I wonder how many more games have to be played before Luck and RG3 are thrown into the Ben/Eli/Ryan pantheon as no-doubt top 10 quarterbacks? By middle of next season, I expect both guys to be neck-and-neck with Drew Brees for top 5 QB status. And within 3 years, I think the top 3 QBs in the league are unquestionably going to be Rodgers, Luck and Griffin. Amazing. And scary.
Let's begin the week 14 picks ...
Broncos (9-3) @ Raiders (3-9)
Predicted Line: DEN by 9.5
Actual Line: DEN by 11
What's most impressive isn't merely the Broncos' seven-game winning streak. It's the fact that they've won each game by at least 7 points. And they've scored 30 or more in all those games except one. Peyton Manning is playing like Peyton Manning, and yet we're all so surprised.
On the other side, Oakland has lost five straight, they got trashed by Brandon Weeden last week, and they can't stop the run whatsoever. Also, Von Miller has more sacks (15) than the Raiders (14).
So why lean towards Oakland? Well, because three years in a row double-digit underdogs have covered the spread more than half the time (approximately 57%). Those numbers are even higher for home underdogs, and higher still for home underdogs in divisional games. So by all predictable logic, the Raiders should cover this game about 68% of the time. I'm almost positive the final score will be Denver 26-17.
(Under 48.5)
Rams (5-6-1) @ Bills (5-7)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3
Actual Line: BUF by 3
I don't think I've picked a Bills game correctly in 3 years. I freaking hate them. This feels like it should be a pretty low-scoring, sloppy game, so I might as well take the points. Plus, the Rams are way underrated. How about Bills 18-16.
(Under 42.5)
Cowboys (6-6) @ Bengals (7-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1
Actual Line: CIN by 3
A surprising four-game winning streak has Cincy back in the playoff hunt, but it needs to be noted that the last three teams they've played are all abysmal. Overall, they've faced the easiest schedule in the league, so 7-5 really isn't a great record. Their remaining schedule is tough, and they'll have to win in Pittsburgh week 16 to have any chance at the playoffs.
Dallas is in a similar boat. They basically need to win their remaining 4 games to make the playoffs. I don't think they will, but they'll at least win this one, because it's mandated in the NFL's constitution that every season involve some sort of Cowboy-related playoff intrigue. Cowboys 31-23.
(Over 45.5)
Chiefs (2-10) @ Browns (4-8)
Predicted Line: CLE by 3
Actual Line: CLE by 6.5
Frankly, I'm not sure Cleveland should be favored by this many points against half the teams in the SEC. Then throw in the fact that the underdogs are suddenly inspired by a major tragedy, and have found a leader in the shockingly profound Brady Quinn, who incidentally just played the best game of his career. Now he heads back to Cleveland, his hometown, to avenge the terrible years he played with the Browns. I like the Chiefs straight up, 23-13. Which by the way, would throw a wrench in all the mock drafts that have KC taking Geno Smith at #1.
Seriously, it's worth watching that video of Quinn's press conference. My respect for him went from a 0 to about a 99 in 50 seconds.
(Under 37.5)
Titans (4-8) @ Colts (8-4)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 6
So, I don't mean to brag, but did I call that Lions-Colts game or what?
I said Luck would have his first 3 TD game .... he did. (plus one more)
I said Luck would throw for 350 yards ... he did. (plus 40 more)
I said Calvin would have a monster game .... he did.
I said both teams would score in the 30s ... they did.
I said the teams would combine to score 66 points .... they scored 68.
I said the Colts would win on a last-second heart breaker ... they certainly did.
So I'm not sure what that means, other than I have a good read on the dysfunctional nature of the Lions and the unflappability of Andrew Luck.
I think the smart pick here would be Colts winning but Titans covering the spread, given that Indy's margins of victory this season have been narrow: 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, 7, 2, and 17. But, I'm taking a risk that Luck will manufacture one of his first blowouts, as the Titans defense really lacks talent, and at 4-8, they'll also lack the motivation. Indy wins big in a romp at home, 38-16.
After this game, Mike & Mike will start to wonder if we'll see Luck vs. Peyton in the AFC Championship.
(Over 48)
Bears (8-4) @ Vikings (6-6)
Predicted Line: CHI by 3
Actual Line: CHI by 3
Next time somebody tries to tell you that Jay Cutler is good, it would be helpful to remind them that the Bears rank 31st in passing offense, and Cutler doesn't rank in the top 15 in any statistics except interceptions and sacks. The real reason the Bears are 8-4 is because they lead the NFL with 34 turnovers, and they've scored on a whopping 8 of those turnovers. But, they haven't scored a defensive touchdown in 4 weeks, and not coincidentally they're 1-3 during that span. Cutler's injury only hurt them because of how bad the backup was; it was like downgrading from a 72 to a 52. But make no mistake, Jay Cutler is a C-minus quarterback, and if the defense doesn't make big plays, the Bears don't win.
With Percy Harvin now on IR, I'm inclined to pick against the Vikings ... but then I watch Adrian Peterson highlights, and I see his otherworldly 6.2 YPC, and the fact that he has almost as many runs of 20+ yards as the next two RBs combined, and I wonder if he might be the single most valuable/dangerous/don't-pick-against-this-guy player in the league. He's having one of the best seasons any RB has ever had, and he's doing it against 8 guys in the box on every play. And he wasn't even supposed to play at all this year.
I know there's a mandate that MVPs have to be quarterbacks, but I think the two best players in the league this year have been AP and Megatron. And I also think the Vikings can win this game at home. Maybe a sorely needed bounce-back performance for Ponder? Minnesota 24-21.
(Over 39)
Chargers (4-8) @ Steelers (7-5)Predicted Line: PIT by 6
Actual Line: PIT by 7
I'm not sure how it works when the coach and GM know they're going to be fired. It's an undisputed fact that Norv Turner and AJ Smith are gone as soon as the season ends. So what does San Diego do these last four games? Play for pride? Go through the motions? Give up completely?
I think it comes down to the leadership on the team. Detroit is out of the playoffs, but because of Schwartz's anger issues and respected veterans on the team (VandenBosch, Burleson, Raiola, etc) the team won't quit trying to win. I'm not sure San Diego has those kind of guys. Rivers definitely isn't one. It's especially tough to muster any sense of competitiveness on the road in a very hostile environment.
From a merely X's and O's perspective, I really like the Steelers. They'll be able to throw all over the place now that Ben is back, especially since San Diego has no pass rush. The Steelers D should be able to dominate Rivers and his decimated offensive line; the Bolts are down to their 3rd string left tackle (fresh off the practice squad) and are also missing starters at RT and LG. James Harrison will be licking his chops.
I'm going to take Pittsburgh in a blowout, 37-7.
Eagles (3-9) @ Bucs (6-6)
Predicted Line: TB by 8.5
Actual Line: TB by 7.5
WalterFootball.com made a compelling argument in favor of the Eagles. He basically says that since the Vick Era officially ended, the Eagles began to try again, and they've almost won their last two games, thanks to some incredible running by emerging star Bryce Brown and the slowly improving Nick Foles. On the other hand, Tampa has fallen apart as Doug Martin appears to have hit a major rookie wall. He gained a horrible 2.8 YPC over the last two games.
Walter makes valid points, and this line probably is a few points too high.
But then again, WalterFootball has been terrible this year, picking 47.2% of the games correctly, much lower than my 51.5%. So even though he exceeded 52% in 3 of the past 4 years, I don't know how much I should trust him. Many times this year I've taken his advice and got the pick very wrong. He has too many biases that influence his picks, and his biggest bias is against Vick. I know he's pretending to like Foles just because of how much he dislikes Vick. He hasn't swayed me into thinking that Nick Foles is any better than he actually is .... but he does make good points which are backed by good research. I'll go Bucs by 3, 20-17.
(Under 47)
Ravens (9-3) @ Redskins (6-6)
Predicted Line: WAS by 1
Actual Line: WAS by 3
Betting against RG3 is about the dumbest thing a person can do nowadays. Plus Baltimore is kind of overachieving; other than Oakland and Cleveland, they haven't beat anybody by more than 3 points since week 1. Now, Terrell Suggs is out again with a bicep tear, and Ray Lewis is still one week away from playing, and of course Lardarious Webb is out too. Baltimore's defense actually ranks a crappy 25th in terms of yards allowed, narrowly ahead of Washington at 29th. This could quickly turn into a barnburner. While Baltimore has the better coach, Washington has the better QB, and I think that makes the bigger difference. Redskins 34-30.
(Way over 47.5)
Falcons (11-1) @ Panthers (3-9)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 3.5
What the Panthers lack in the win column, they make up for with bravado. Prior to the season, their players were guaranteeing Super Bowls. Cam Newton made a stupid Youtube video pleading his case to be on the cover of Madden, and he began the video by listing about 30 self-appointed nicknames, such as Mr. Swag Man. And now, mediocre defensive end Greg Hardy is telling anyone who will listen that the 3-9 Panthers are a better team than the 11-1 Falcons and something about "punishment."
It reminds me of the Jon Kitna/Kevin Smith days when the Lions would predict 10 wins for themselves and then win 2 games. It's nice to have confidence, but you've gotta back it up with some talent and some composure on the field. Carolina hasn't done that, and Atlanta has. Personnel-wise, they may be close, but Atlanta actually performs on the field, and they don't beat themselves.
That said, Carolina is playing their best football right now, especially Newton, who has 8 touchdowns and 0 turnovers in the last 3 games. And homedogs getting more than 3 points are usually a good bet. However, I think Hardy's stupid comments might give Atlanta just enough motivation to kick the crap out of Carolina's sorry secondary and possibly even run up the score. Who knows. I'll say Falcons 37-27.
(Over 48)
Jets (5-7) @ Jaguars (2-10)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 1
Actual Line: NYJ by 3
If it wasn't for Tim Tebow's rib injury, this actually might have been the most interesting game of the week. Sanchez finally benched, Tebow in his hometown, rumors of Tebow becoming the Jags' QB next year .... but instead, it's an absolute waste of time. Sanchez gets another chance, Henne hands the ball to a 4th string running back, and both defenses suck. Taking the homedog. Sanchez shouldn't be a road favorite against anyone after his confidence was dragged through the dirt. Jags 16-6.
(Under 38.5)
Dolphins (5-7) @ 49ers (8-3-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 8
Actual Line: SF by 10
Conventional wisdom says to take the points. Miami typically steps up against superior foes, and is a stunning 15-3 ATS on the road against teams with winning records since 07.
But one major injury scares me. Jake Long is gone for the year with a tricep injury. Many suspect that his career in Miami is over, as he'll be a free agent after this season and hasn't been extended. He'll either get franchised (1 year, $15 million) or a long-term deal (something like 7 years, $80 million, $40 guaranteed). Most people speculate that Miami doesn't want to retain him as they have too many other holes on the roster, and Long is getting older and has been hit by a few injuries lately. If he doesn't get paid by Miami, he will get a big payday somewhere, and unfortunately, Detroit will not be among the possible candidates with the available cash, in case you wondered.
Long's injury impacts this game because he'll be replaced by rookie Jonathan Martin, who has never started in the blind side before. Martin's task is to block current sack-leader Aldon Smith, while also keeping an eye on All Pro Justin Smith. Yikes.
This could easily lead to 6 or 7 sacks and 3 or 4 turnovers for Ryan Tannehill, who is notoriously unaware of protections and blitzes. That alone will be enough to beat the spread, provided San Fran's offense puts up at least 20 points, which should be no problem.
I'll take the Niners 27-13.
(Over 39)
Saints (5-7) @ Giants (7-5)
Predicted Line: NYG by 3.5
Actual Line: NYG by 5
Saints' defense is horrible, but Brees will be looking to prove he doesn't suck after last week's debacle. I have absolutely no read on either of these teams. But I know it would be hilarious to see the Giants miss the playoffs, so I'll say Saints win, 33-25.
(Over 53)
Cardinals (4-8) @ Seahawks (7-5)
Predicted Line: SEA by 9.5
Actual Line: SEA by 10
A lot of really tough picks this week, and here's another one. I don't like laying 10 points with rookie QBs, but I don't like anything about the Cardinals and their 8-game losing streak. At least they wisely benched Ryan Lindley and put him out of his misery. But is John Skelton (2 TDs, 7 turnovers), going to fare any better? Among QBs with at least 50 attempts, Lindley has the worst QB rating (40.4), but Skelton has the next worst (64.4). And while they do have a wretched offensive line, they also have Larry Fitzgerald, so the excuses are limited. By comparison Kevin Kolb (86.1) is an absolute rock star. When his ribs are fully healed, he'll likely be the QB to finish out the season.
But no question, Arizona leads the list of teams that need a new QB next year. Is Alex Smith on their list? What about Vick? And it needs to be asked, Tebow? Or will they just take the best rookie in a class that's not particularly impressive?
I'm taking Seattle, but not by 10, and the only reason is because Arizona's defense is pretty solid. Here's a link to one of the most impressive interceptions you'll ever see, courtesy of Patrick Peterson last week.
Seahawks 20-13.
(Under 35.5)
Lions (4-8) @ Packers (8-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 7.5
Actual Line: GB by 7
..... Probably taking the points. The Lions can't seem to get blown out by anybody. Packers 33-27.
(Over 51)
Texans (11-1) @ Patriots (9-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 4
Pats by 7. 37-30.
(Over 52)
That's it for now .... Go Timberwolves.
For the year, I am:
97-91-7 ATS (51.5%)
119-72 straight up (62.3%)
For a little history, in 2010 I picked the games only straight-up, and had stunning 67% accuracy. In 2011 I picked only ATS, and ended up at an equally stunning 54.1%. Last year, I picked both ATS and straight up, and was a solid 51.7% and 67.5%.
I'm hoping to exceed last year's 51.7% mark, but 67.5% is nearly impossible at this point, barring the elusive 16-0 week.
With the Lions' fourth straight loss being the most crushing one yet, I don't feel like talking much about last week's games. Let's just say I should have changed my pick to KC+3 after the events that took place in Kansas City. Also, I wonder how many more games have to be played before Luck and RG3 are thrown into the Ben/Eli/Ryan pantheon as no-doubt top 10 quarterbacks? By middle of next season, I expect both guys to be neck-and-neck with Drew Brees for top 5 QB status. And within 3 years, I think the top 3 QBs in the league are unquestionably going to be Rodgers, Luck and Griffin. Amazing. And scary.
Let's begin the week 14 picks ...
Broncos (9-3) @ Raiders (3-9)
Predicted Line: DEN by 9.5
Actual Line: DEN by 11
What's most impressive isn't merely the Broncos' seven-game winning streak. It's the fact that they've won each game by at least 7 points. And they've scored 30 or more in all those games except one. Peyton Manning is playing like Peyton Manning, and yet we're all so surprised.
On the other side, Oakland has lost five straight, they got trashed by Brandon Weeden last week, and they can't stop the run whatsoever. Also, Von Miller has more sacks (15) than the Raiders (14).
So why lean towards Oakland? Well, because three years in a row double-digit underdogs have covered the spread more than half the time (approximately 57%). Those numbers are even higher for home underdogs, and higher still for home underdogs in divisional games. So by all predictable logic, the Raiders should cover this game about 68% of the time. I'm almost positive the final score will be Denver 26-17.
(Under 48.5)
Rams (5-6-1) @ Bills (5-7)
Predicted Line: BUF by 3
Actual Line: BUF by 3
I don't think I've picked a Bills game correctly in 3 years. I freaking hate them. This feels like it should be a pretty low-scoring, sloppy game, so I might as well take the points. Plus, the Rams are way underrated. How about Bills 18-16.
(Under 42.5)
Cowboys (6-6) @ Bengals (7-5)
Predicted Line: CIN by 1
Actual Line: CIN by 3
A surprising four-game winning streak has Cincy back in the playoff hunt, but it needs to be noted that the last three teams they've played are all abysmal. Overall, they've faced the easiest schedule in the league, so 7-5 really isn't a great record. Their remaining schedule is tough, and they'll have to win in Pittsburgh week 16 to have any chance at the playoffs.
Dallas is in a similar boat. They basically need to win their remaining 4 games to make the playoffs. I don't think they will, but they'll at least win this one, because it's mandated in the NFL's constitution that every season involve some sort of Cowboy-related playoff intrigue. Cowboys 31-23.
(Over 45.5)
Chiefs (2-10) @ Browns (4-8)
Predicted Line: CLE by 3
Actual Line: CLE by 6.5
Frankly, I'm not sure Cleveland should be favored by this many points against half the teams in the SEC. Then throw in the fact that the underdogs are suddenly inspired by a major tragedy, and have found a leader in the shockingly profound Brady Quinn, who incidentally just played the best game of his career. Now he heads back to Cleveland, his hometown, to avenge the terrible years he played with the Browns. I like the Chiefs straight up, 23-13. Which by the way, would throw a wrench in all the mock drafts that have KC taking Geno Smith at #1.
Seriously, it's worth watching that video of Quinn's press conference. My respect for him went from a 0 to about a 99 in 50 seconds.
(Under 37.5)
Titans (4-8) @ Colts (8-4)
Predicted Line: IND by 6.5
Actual Line: IND by 6
So, I don't mean to brag, but did I call that Lions-Colts game or what?
I said Luck would have his first 3 TD game .... he did. (plus one more)
I said Luck would throw for 350 yards ... he did. (plus 40 more)
I said Calvin would have a monster game .... he did.
I said both teams would score in the 30s ... they did.
I said the teams would combine to score 66 points .... they scored 68.
I said the Colts would win on a last-second heart breaker ... they certainly did.
So I'm not sure what that means, other than I have a good read on the dysfunctional nature of the Lions and the unflappability of Andrew Luck.
I think the smart pick here would be Colts winning but Titans covering the spread, given that Indy's margins of victory this season have been narrow: 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, 7, 2, and 17. But, I'm taking a risk that Luck will manufacture one of his first blowouts, as the Titans defense really lacks talent, and at 4-8, they'll also lack the motivation. Indy wins big in a romp at home, 38-16.
After this game, Mike & Mike will start to wonder if we'll see Luck vs. Peyton in the AFC Championship.
(Over 48)
Bears (8-4) @ Vikings (6-6)
Predicted Line: CHI by 3
Actual Line: CHI by 3
Next time somebody tries to tell you that Jay Cutler is good, it would be helpful to remind them that the Bears rank 31st in passing offense, and Cutler doesn't rank in the top 15 in any statistics except interceptions and sacks. The real reason the Bears are 8-4 is because they lead the NFL with 34 turnovers, and they've scored on a whopping 8 of those turnovers. But, they haven't scored a defensive touchdown in 4 weeks, and not coincidentally they're 1-3 during that span. Cutler's injury only hurt them because of how bad the backup was; it was like downgrading from a 72 to a 52. But make no mistake, Jay Cutler is a C-minus quarterback, and if the defense doesn't make big plays, the Bears don't win.
With Percy Harvin now on IR, I'm inclined to pick against the Vikings ... but then I watch Adrian Peterson highlights, and I see his otherworldly 6.2 YPC, and the fact that he has almost as many runs of 20+ yards as the next two RBs combined, and I wonder if he might be the single most valuable/dangerous/don't-pick-against-this-guy player in the league. He's having one of the best seasons any RB has ever had, and he's doing it against 8 guys in the box on every play. And he wasn't even supposed to play at all this year.
I know there's a mandate that MVPs have to be quarterbacks, but I think the two best players in the league this year have been AP and Megatron. And I also think the Vikings can win this game at home. Maybe a sorely needed bounce-back performance for Ponder? Minnesota 24-21.
(Over 39)
Chargers (4-8) @ Steelers (7-5)Predicted Line: PIT by 6
Actual Line: PIT by 7
I'm not sure how it works when the coach and GM know they're going to be fired. It's an undisputed fact that Norv Turner and AJ Smith are gone as soon as the season ends. So what does San Diego do these last four games? Play for pride? Go through the motions? Give up completely?
I think it comes down to the leadership on the team. Detroit is out of the playoffs, but because of Schwartz's anger issues and respected veterans on the team (VandenBosch, Burleson, Raiola, etc) the team won't quit trying to win. I'm not sure San Diego has those kind of guys. Rivers definitely isn't one. It's especially tough to muster any sense of competitiveness on the road in a very hostile environment.
From a merely X's and O's perspective, I really like the Steelers. They'll be able to throw all over the place now that Ben is back, especially since San Diego has no pass rush. The Steelers D should be able to dominate Rivers and his decimated offensive line; the Bolts are down to their 3rd string left tackle (fresh off the practice squad) and are also missing starters at RT and LG. James Harrison will be licking his chops.
I'm going to take Pittsburgh in a blowout, 37-7.
Eagles (3-9) @ Bucs (6-6)
Predicted Line: TB by 8.5
Actual Line: TB by 7.5
WalterFootball.com made a compelling argument in favor of the Eagles. He basically says that since the Vick Era officially ended, the Eagles began to try again, and they've almost won their last two games, thanks to some incredible running by emerging star Bryce Brown and the slowly improving Nick Foles. On the other hand, Tampa has fallen apart as Doug Martin appears to have hit a major rookie wall. He gained a horrible 2.8 YPC over the last two games.
Walter makes valid points, and this line probably is a few points too high.
But then again, WalterFootball has been terrible this year, picking 47.2% of the games correctly, much lower than my 51.5%. So even though he exceeded 52% in 3 of the past 4 years, I don't know how much I should trust him. Many times this year I've taken his advice and got the pick very wrong. He has too many biases that influence his picks, and his biggest bias is against Vick. I know he's pretending to like Foles just because of how much he dislikes Vick. He hasn't swayed me into thinking that Nick Foles is any better than he actually is .... but he does make good points which are backed by good research. I'll go Bucs by 3, 20-17.
(Under 47)
Ravens (9-3) @ Redskins (6-6)
Predicted Line: WAS by 1
Actual Line: WAS by 3
Betting against RG3 is about the dumbest thing a person can do nowadays. Plus Baltimore is kind of overachieving; other than Oakland and Cleveland, they haven't beat anybody by more than 3 points since week 1. Now, Terrell Suggs is out again with a bicep tear, and Ray Lewis is still one week away from playing, and of course Lardarious Webb is out too. Baltimore's defense actually ranks a crappy 25th in terms of yards allowed, narrowly ahead of Washington at 29th. This could quickly turn into a barnburner. While Baltimore has the better coach, Washington has the better QB, and I think that makes the bigger difference. Redskins 34-30.
(Way over 47.5)
Falcons (11-1) @ Panthers (3-9)
Predicted Line: ATL by 4
Actual Line: ATL by 3.5
What the Panthers lack in the win column, they make up for with bravado. Prior to the season, their players were guaranteeing Super Bowls. Cam Newton made a stupid Youtube video pleading his case to be on the cover of Madden, and he began the video by listing about 30 self-appointed nicknames, such as Mr. Swag Man. And now, mediocre defensive end Greg Hardy is telling anyone who will listen that the 3-9 Panthers are a better team than the 11-1 Falcons and something about "punishment."
It reminds me of the Jon Kitna/Kevin Smith days when the Lions would predict 10 wins for themselves and then win 2 games. It's nice to have confidence, but you've gotta back it up with some talent and some composure on the field. Carolina hasn't done that, and Atlanta has. Personnel-wise, they may be close, but Atlanta actually performs on the field, and they don't beat themselves.
That said, Carolina is playing their best football right now, especially Newton, who has 8 touchdowns and 0 turnovers in the last 3 games. And homedogs getting more than 3 points are usually a good bet. However, I think Hardy's stupid comments might give Atlanta just enough motivation to kick the crap out of Carolina's sorry secondary and possibly even run up the score. Who knows. I'll say Falcons 37-27.
(Over 48)
Jets (5-7) @ Jaguars (2-10)
Predicted Line: NYJ by 1
Actual Line: NYJ by 3
If it wasn't for Tim Tebow's rib injury, this actually might have been the most interesting game of the week. Sanchez finally benched, Tebow in his hometown, rumors of Tebow becoming the Jags' QB next year .... but instead, it's an absolute waste of time. Sanchez gets another chance, Henne hands the ball to a 4th string running back, and both defenses suck. Taking the homedog. Sanchez shouldn't be a road favorite against anyone after his confidence was dragged through the dirt. Jags 16-6.
(Under 38.5)
Dolphins (5-7) @ 49ers (8-3-1)
Predicted Line: SF by 8
Actual Line: SF by 10
Conventional wisdom says to take the points. Miami typically steps up against superior foes, and is a stunning 15-3 ATS on the road against teams with winning records since 07.
But one major injury scares me. Jake Long is gone for the year with a tricep injury. Many suspect that his career in Miami is over, as he'll be a free agent after this season and hasn't been extended. He'll either get franchised (1 year, $15 million) or a long-term deal (something like 7 years, $80 million, $40 guaranteed). Most people speculate that Miami doesn't want to retain him as they have too many other holes on the roster, and Long is getting older and has been hit by a few injuries lately. If he doesn't get paid by Miami, he will get a big payday somewhere, and unfortunately, Detroit will not be among the possible candidates with the available cash, in case you wondered.
Long's injury impacts this game because he'll be replaced by rookie Jonathan Martin, who has never started in the blind side before. Martin's task is to block current sack-leader Aldon Smith, while also keeping an eye on All Pro Justin Smith. Yikes.
This could easily lead to 6 or 7 sacks and 3 or 4 turnovers for Ryan Tannehill, who is notoriously unaware of protections and blitzes. That alone will be enough to beat the spread, provided San Fran's offense puts up at least 20 points, which should be no problem.
I'll take the Niners 27-13.
(Over 39)
Saints (5-7) @ Giants (7-5)
Predicted Line: NYG by 3.5
Actual Line: NYG by 5
Saints' defense is horrible, but Brees will be looking to prove he doesn't suck after last week's debacle. I have absolutely no read on either of these teams. But I know it would be hilarious to see the Giants miss the playoffs, so I'll say Saints win, 33-25.
(Over 53)
Cardinals (4-8) @ Seahawks (7-5)
Predicted Line: SEA by 9.5
Actual Line: SEA by 10
A lot of really tough picks this week, and here's another one. I don't like laying 10 points with rookie QBs, but I don't like anything about the Cardinals and their 8-game losing streak. At least they wisely benched Ryan Lindley and put him out of his misery. But is John Skelton (2 TDs, 7 turnovers), going to fare any better? Among QBs with at least 50 attempts, Lindley has the worst QB rating (40.4), but Skelton has the next worst (64.4). And while they do have a wretched offensive line, they also have Larry Fitzgerald, so the excuses are limited. By comparison Kevin Kolb (86.1) is an absolute rock star. When his ribs are fully healed, he'll likely be the QB to finish out the season.
But no question, Arizona leads the list of teams that need a new QB next year. Is Alex Smith on their list? What about Vick? And it needs to be asked, Tebow? Or will they just take the best rookie in a class that's not particularly impressive?
I'm taking Seattle, but not by 10, and the only reason is because Arizona's defense is pretty solid. Here's a link to one of the most impressive interceptions you'll ever see, courtesy of Patrick Peterson last week.
Seahawks 20-13.
(Under 35.5)
Lions (4-8) @ Packers (8-4)
Predicted Line: GB by 7.5
Actual Line: GB by 7
..... Probably taking the points. The Lions can't seem to get blown out by anybody. Packers 33-27.
(Over 51)
Texans (11-1) @ Patriots (9-3)
Predicted Line: NE by 3
Actual Line: NE by 4
Pats by 7. 37-30.
(Over 52)
That's it for now .... Go Timberwolves.
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